Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

tbf conor murphy is the natural leader of the shinners but for whatever reason he has been sidelined.
they need him leading as he is articulate and can easily defend his position without resorting the rancour.
sdlp might do better than we think in this election purely as a wake up call to the shinners not to take their electorate or granted

Got it from a good source that Conor Murphy turned the leadership down. John O'Dowd or John Finucanne are probably the future. O'Neill puts me off SF, though I voted for them but that was more to do with not wanting to vote for Dolores Kelly who is worse than O'Neill. Colum Eastwood impresses me but he is alone in the SDLP.

Claire Hanna?

[Fear Bun Na Sceilpe]

SF vote seems well down % wise constituency by constituency (bar NB), not great either for the DUP. With knuckles firmly wrapped for both parties and influence gone in the UK the return of Stormont is a certainty.

Is it well down because of the pact?

The basic analysis would be the abortion issue as well as SF being bankers in most of the west led to a suppression of their core vote. There's also an issue of overall candidate quality which stems from nepotism within the party. Bar Finucane and Gildernew, the decent candidates are in Stormont rather than WM.
The kicking Eastwood gave McCallion was way beyond anything I ever expected though, there must have been a collective rolling of the eyes in Derry when she told them they were "going te party" after beating Durkan last time out.

White powder all the shop by all accounts

[Ambrose]

Arlene Foster has said last night's election results have set the DUP back 'ten years' to 1680.

[Rois]

Hanna and Eastwood will be articulate MPs who will explain the nationalist position in London very well.  All necessary to keep progressing towards a New Ireland.  In contrast, what is the point of MPs like Micky Brady and Francie Molloy.  I literally couldn't tell you what they do from one week to the next.

Who's going to be listening though?

Boris won't give a shit.

The Irish govt now hold *some" of the cards and the DUP are no longer in a position to stop whatever concession is needed on Ireland.  The link btw Varadkar/Coveney and the SDLP could be important.

[trailer]

The Tory campaign is well run and organised. Similar to the Leave.EU campaign. They're keeping Johnston out of the clutches of other leaders especially Sturgeon who would tear him another him. They are also keeping him away from the good interviewers, Neil, and others on Ch4. They've honed in on a few weaknesses in the Labour party policy and rammed it down the throats of the electorate. Brexit. Corbyn can't be trusted. Over and over and over again.

Labour on the other hand with their spending plans and wishy washy Brexit policy as well as Corbyn appear toxic.
Corbyn is a good man. Well meaning. But he has no charisma. And that is everything in this game. You have to be able to carry a crowd. I am no fan of Nigel Farage but their is no doubt that he has pushed the anti EU message in the UK for well over 20 years despite never having been elected to the HOC. He is box office and attracts a following. Corbyn attracts that studenty protesty type, grand people but not gonna get you elected.

This is the truth.

[Sportacus]

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

tbf conor murphy is the natural leader of the shinners but for whatever reason he has been sidelined.
they need him leading as he is articulate and can easily defend his position without resorting the rancour.
sdlp might do better than we think in this election purely as a wake up call to the shinners not to take their electorate or granted

Got it from a good source that Conor Murphy turned the leadership down. John O'Dowd or John Finucanne are probably the future. O'Neill puts me off SF, though I voted for them but that was more to do with not wanting to vote for Dolores Kelly who is worse than O'Neill. Colum Eastwood impresses me but he is alone in the SDLP.

Claire Hanna?

Nichola Mallon?

[thewobbler]

Corbyn's personality might have been an issue. But it's his politics that really hindered Labour.

It's arriving on me that England's deep culture is neither socialist nor liberal, and the only way for Tory opposition to compete is to largely mirror Tory policy, and make it a personality contest.

[screenexile]

Anyone heard the girl from Momentum on Piers Morgan this morning??

https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1205401731988959233?s=20

Astonishing levels of ignorance on display and if this is the theme in the Labour Party they're fucked for a long long time. Contrary to belief there are real Labour voters who voted Conservative this time and it was much more than just Brexit!

[Applesisapples]

Hanna and Eastwood will be articulate MPs who will explain the nationalist position in London very well.  All necessary to keep progressing towards a New Ireland.  In contrast, what is the point of MPs like Micky Brady and Francie Molloy.  I literally couldn't tell you what they do from one week to the next.

Eastwood yes, Hanna is ropey on detail, she has been nailed on Nolan more than once on Brexit.

[Rossfan]

Normally a Shinner voter myself but changed to Alliance this election. I have found there's a lot of talk and not a lot of action from them these past few years. Also it's pretty hard to stomach some of the people they have standing for the party nowadays. Michelle is party leader in the North but Mary Lou clearly doesn;t trust her as she's holding her hand at every party event, if there are Assembly elections I'd expect a disaster for Sinn Fein vote sharewise.. Expect Finucane to replace Michelle in the next 5 years, party is stagnating and needs an overhaul

They need to dump Maryloo and O'Neill pronto and appoint proper leaders like Pearse Doherty and John Finucane.
Otherwise their  lá has imithe in the 26 and sloganeering won't be enough to hold their numbers in the 6.

[Solo_run]

I take it there will still be a border down the Irish sea?

[RadioGAAGAA]

Arlene Foster has said last night's election results have set the DUP back 'ten years' to 1680.

hahaha, very good.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Normally a Shinner voter myself but changed to Alliance this election. I have found there's a lot of talk and not a lot of action from them these past few years. Also it's pretty hard to stomach some of the people they have standing for the party nowadays. Michelle is party leader in the North but Mary Lou clearly doesn;t trust her as she's holding her hand at every party event, if there are Assembly elections I'd expect a disaster for Sinn Fein vote sharewise.. Expect Finucane to replace Michelle in the next 5 years, party is stagnating and needs an overhaul

They need to dump Maryloo and O'Neill pronto and appoint proper leaders like Pearse Doherty and John Finucane.
Otherwise their  lá has imithe in the 26 and sloganeering won't be enough to hold their numbers in the 6.

Sinn Fein badly need to evolve beyond being a protest party to a party of governance - they really are struggling. "Fight for your rights" sounds all good when your under the heel of an oppressor - but when your supposed to be the decision makers - then it is no longer relevant.


Those two clowns "in charge" are simply protestors with microphones unfortunately shoved in front of them too frequently.

[johnnycool]

SF and The DUP routed. A clear message sent. Get back to work.
More nationalist MPs yes, but a broad spectrum. Claire Hanna isn't in the same circles as Mickey Brady. But a good night for progressive positive politics.

It was a very good election for Sinn Féin.

Eh?? The only real success they had was Finucane who needed everyone else to withdraw from the race so he could win.

Otherwise they've seen their vote share drop across the board (more than the DUP actually) and a complete annihilation in Derry. . . hardly what you'd call a good election. It's not a catastrophe like the DUP but describing it as a good election is a stretch!!

Trailer set the criteria here...

Nationalism has a problem and even though demographics are trending towards a nationalist majority neither SF nor the SDLP are making ground. Alliance seem to be mopping ups that younger vote, so a UI is fading. Michelle O'Neill is a vote loser, talks too fast and is incoherent at best. O'Dowd would have been a better bet. The SDLP on the other hand despite the obvious ability of Eastwood can't stop coming across as Uncle Tom's.

tbf conor murphy is the natural leader of the shinners but for whatever reason he has been sidelined.
they need him leading as he is articulate and can easily defend his position without resorting the rancour.
sdlp might do better than we think in this election purely as a wake up call to the shinners not to take their electorate or granted

I certainly get the feeling the that SF in some constituencies will get a hit. If SF hold or even only lose one seat I think that can be called a very good election for them.

Even I didn't see the hammering in Derry and their vote share down across NI. It's a booting for their leadership, abstentionism and lack of work ethic.

You set the criteria. They met them. Put the goalposts down.

There'll be some meeting in the felons club over this....

not as famous as Eddies in the Welly park when he won WB back in the day.

[johnnycool]

Hanna and Eastwood will be articulate MPs who will explain the nationalist position in London very well.  All necessary to keep progressing towards a New Ireland.  In contrast, what is the point of MPs like Micky Brady and Francie Molloy.  I literally couldn't tell you what they do from one week to the next.

Who's going to be listening though?

Boris won't give a shit.

The Irish govt now hold *some" of the cards and the DUP are no longer in a position to stop whatever concession is needed on Ireland.  The link btw Varadkar/Coveney and the SDLP could be important.

Claire isn't a big fan of that as we all know.