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Non GAA Discussion => General discussion => Topic started by: deiseach on September 07, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

Poll
Question: If you have/had a vote, how will/would you vote?
Option 1: Yes votes: 122
Option 2: No votes: 17
Title: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 07, 2014, 11:36:16 AM
Seeing as the only thread on this so far has been about the rivalry between a soccer club and its dead rivals, I thought I'd start one. Seems to be me that Alex Salmond's tactic of a long campaign has worked out as he would have hoped, i.e. to give the maximum opportunity for visibility of the more unpalatable sections of the Unionist camp, most obviously the Tories but also the Protestant supremacists who left Scotland centuries ago, thus driving the waverers into the Yes camp. Even if there is a small majority against independence, the wedge between Scotland and England has been driven ever deeper. Maith an fear, as they say in na h-Eileanan Siar.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: T Fearon on September 07, 2014, 12:17:04 PM
Yes indeed would that nationalist Ireland,North or South  produced such a visionary leader.I see Nigel Farage is also planning a big No Rally, that should further push the hitherto undecided into the Yes Camp in big numbers.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 07, 2014, 12:26:35 PM
Spot on about the limitations of Irish leaders. Now that the polls are moving against them perhaps the OO will have a few more marches.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: stew on September 07, 2014, 12:31:01 PM
The empire is dead.Long live the dead empire!!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Tony Baloney on September 07, 2014, 01:28:10 PM
Salmond is a pretty risible character so he would me think twice.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 07, 2014, 01:42:53 PM
"I don't like to see small islands partitioned" - George Galloway.

Discuss.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: easytiger95 on September 07, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
Scotland's independence maybe a good thing for Scots - but it could mean a permanent rightwing majority in Westminster as the Scottish labour party MPs were a huge bulwark against the Tories in the Commons. If Cameron didn't have to live with the disgrace of being the PM that lost Scotland, he'd be rubbing his hands at Labour's plight. It's no surprise Darling and Brown are so gung ho No. And it is also very interesting that Farage is spouting today that he was asked to meet Murdoch this week.

I take it that they stay in the Commonwealth, with Her Maj still head of state? Very interesting times indeed.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 07, 2014, 02:35:55 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on September 07, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
Scotland's independence maybe a good thing for Scots - but it could mean a permanent rightwing majority in Westminster as the Scottish labour party MPs were a huge bulwark against the Tories in the Commons. If Cameron didn't have to live with the disgrace of being the PM that lost Scotland, he'd be rubbing his hands at Labour's plight. It's no surprise Darling and Brown are so gung ho No. And it is also very interesting that Farage is spouting today that he was asked to meet Murdoch this week.

I take it that they stay in the Commonwealth, with Her Maj still head of state? Very interesting times indeed.
Yes to Commonwealth and Head of State.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 07, 2014, 06:31:57 PM
Jesus, imagine how strange it will be if it does actually happen. The upheaval will be huge, the long-term implications nearly impossible to guess.

I still don't think it will be a Yes vote, Scottish Nationalism surely couldn't move from the relative periphery to deliver Independence in a few decades, I think when Scots realise it might actually happen they'll have second thoughts, but the panic has surely set in in Government.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 07, 2014, 06:48:47 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on September 07, 2014, 02:35:55 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on September 07, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
Scotland's independence maybe a good thing for Scots - but it could mean a permanent rightwing majority in Westminster as the Scottish labour party MPs were a huge bulwark against the Tories in the Commons. If Cameron didn't have to live with the disgrace of being the PM that lost Scotland, he'd be rubbing his hands at Labour's plight. It's no surprise Darling and Brown are so gung ho No. And it is also very interesting that Farage is spouting today that he was asked to meet Murdoch this week.

I take it that they stay in the Commonwealth, with Her Maj still head of state? Very interesting times indeed.
Yes to Commonwealth and Head of State.

I read yesterday that if independence (?) is granted they will campaign to have another referendum on whether or not to retain the monarchy.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: macdanger2 on September 07, 2014, 10:58:30 PM
It will be interesting to see how many people change their mind in the ballot box and take the safe option of voting No
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 07, 2014, 11:26:29 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 07, 2014, 10:58:30 PM
It will be interesting to see how many people change their mind in the ballot box and take the safe option of voting No

The Québec example is often cited, where the "Yes" side was ahead of "No" by about 3%, but on the day the "No" side won by the narrowest of margins, as people chickened out in the polling station.

However, in Québec there was only a modest surge towards "Yes" at the end compared to Scotland.
(http://i58.tinypic.com/1591cp.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on September 08, 2014, 01:28:04 AM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 07, 2014, 06:48:47 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on September 07, 2014, 02:35:55 PM
Quote from: easytiger95 on September 07, 2014, 01:53:20 PM
Scotland's independence maybe a good thing for Scots - but it could mean a permanent rightwing majority in Westminster as the Scottish labour party MPs were a huge bulwark against the Tories in the Commons. If Cameron didn't have to live with the disgrace of being the PM that lost Scotland, he'd be rubbing his hands at Labour's plight. It's no surprise Darling and Brown are so gung ho No. And it is also very interesting that Farage is spouting today that he was asked to meet Murdoch this week.

I take it that they stay in the Commonwealth, with Her Maj still head of state? Very interesting times indeed.
Yes to Commonwealth and Head of State.

I read yesterday that if independence (?) is granted they will campaign to have another referendum on whether or not to retain the monarchy.

Hmm... I have not heard that before and I've been following the run in fairly closely, sounds like scaremongering... source? Tabloid?

As Irish people we quite easily fall into the trap of looking at this through Irish lens. The English monarchy was imposed on us through warfare and as a result we are opposed to it. However in Scotland that was not the case. Scotland was a monarchy long before English rule and ended up with the same monarch through the laws of secession. As a result Scotland has no real reason to be hostile to the British crown who actually proclaim their Scottish heritage every bit as much as their English.

However if they choose independence in the years following they may decide to move towards a republic viewing a monarch as a nostalgic waste of time and money, or they may decide it is part of their tradition and heritage keep it
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 08, 2014, 05:09:55 AM
It'd be interesting all right to see if they opt for a republic or stick with the monarchy. Alex Salmond for President!

My sneaking suspicion is that the soft yeses will chicken out on the day and vote no, but it's interesting to see the late surge of the Yes campaign. The likes of Farage are probably helping the Yes boys more than they realise.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 08, 2014, 06:14:19 AM
Return of the House of Stewart? Been watching History of Britain 're-runs on BBC4, interesting stuff.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Aerlik on September 08, 2014, 06:45:06 AM
And it's a Yes from me.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 08, 2014, 08:42:43 AM
Still don't think it'll actually happen as there are too many state agencies and spooks to manipulate things just enough behind the scenes to engineer a No vote. But... I really think I'd die laughing if it did happen. Alba gu bràth! as Mel Gibson would say.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 08, 2014, 09:31:54 AM
Looks like the No camp are crapping themselves.  Offering Scots a raft of (as yet undefined) powers in return for a No vote.  I think ultimately the Yes camp will suffer from the "Shy Tory" effect where people who say they will vote Yes now will vote No when they get to the ballot box.  But if the Yes vote is 40% or over I think it will make independence inevitable in the next 25-30 years.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 09:33:33 AM
It'll go to the wire. Quebec looked like seceding in 1995 but the no vote won by a whisker.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hereiam on September 08, 2014, 09:39:53 AM
You will see some amount of rubbish printed in the media over the next week or so to scare people into voting no. I agree with Ulick, don't see it happening for the yes vote but it will make a few wealthy men in Scotland a bit more wealthier.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 10:38:08 AM
I can't see Scotland voting Yes on the 18th. Only a 2% lead in the poll and mostly from swinging undecided voters. They'll swing back to No on the day. However, Salmond says it's actually a 5% lead and Mumsnet say it's 4%.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 08, 2014, 10:45:34 AM
Quote from: omaghjoe on September 08, 2014, 01:28:04 AM

As Irish people we quite easily fall into the trap of looking at this through Irish lens. The English monarchy was imposed on us through warfare and as a result we are opposed to it. However in Scotland that was not the case. Scotland was a monarchy long before English rule and ended up with the same monarch through the laws of secession. As a result Scotland has no real reason to be hostile to the British crown who actually proclaim their Scottish heritage every bit as much as their English.

I suspect you mean SUCCESSION  ;)
Hope they vote YES.
Even if they don't anything over 40% is a success for Salmond and if Cameron gives them another load of Autonomy  he is in fact endorsing the Nationalists' argument......
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 08, 2014, 10:50:37 AM
Quote from: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 10:38:08 AM
I can't see Scotland voting Yes on the 18th. Only a 2% lead in the poll and mostly from swinging undecided voters. They'll swing back to No on the day. However, Salmond says it's actually a 5% lead and Mumsnet say it's 4%.

In an attempt to swing more votes to the No camp, the British government has bestowed more powers to the devolved Scottish Parliament so Salmond is already in a win-win situation.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 08, 2014, 10:56:11 AM
And in an attempt to make us totally helpless with convulsive laughter they keep on keeping on with the same mistake over and over that only they don't know they're making. For every toffee-nosed Tory they lead up to lecture the Jimmies they knock another percentage point or two off the vote they're trying to promote.

It's a cliché, I know, but they really do seem never to learn.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bcarrier on September 08, 2014, 10:58:06 AM
Rockall here we come.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bcarrier on September 08, 2014, 10:59:02 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 08, 2014, 10:56:11 AM
And in an attempt to make us totally helpless with convulsive laughter they keep on keeping on with the same mistake over and over that only they don't know they're making. For every toffee-nosed Tory they lead up to lecture the Jimmies they knock another percentage point or two off the vote they're trying to promote.

It's a cliché, I know, but they really do seem never to learn.

That is so true.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 08, 2014, 10:59:28 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 08, 2014, 10:50:37 AM
In an attempt to swing more votes to the No camp, the British government has bestowed more powers to the devolved Scottish Parliament so Salmond is already in a win-win situation.

Yes. But the "West Lothian problem" arises, more bits and pieces to Scotland while Westminster remains in its current form is unbalanced and not very stable. In something familiar to us in NI the unionists will concede something appropriate to the last debate, not this one, and then try to row back on it afterwards.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lecale2 on September 08, 2014, 11:11:13 AM
This could add a couple of % to the YES total.

"THOUSANDS of Orange Order members and supporters from Northern Ireland will travel to Edinburgh next weekend to stand alongside their "Scottish brethren" at a controversial march in support of the Union, it has emerged."

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/thousands-of-orange-order-members-to-stand-with-scottish-brethren-in-edinbu.25254357 (http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/thousands-of-orange-order-members-to-stand-with-scottish-brethren-in-edinbu.25254357)

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Bord na Mona man on September 08, 2014, 11:14:08 AM
I had assumed all along that the 'No' vote would win. And if the vote were today, I'd still expect them to shade it.
However the panic that has now set in within the 'No' camp could see them tying them up in knots in the next couple of weeks.
They'll be both begging and pleading and showering with love on one hand. While at the same time haranguing and lecturing - telling the Yes voters what narrow-minded bigots and idiots they are.

It'll be something like Fintan O'Toole telling the voters of North Tipp that they can't be seen as sophisticated, cosmopolitans while they keeping voting for Michael Lowry. And actually expecting them to listen to him!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: haranguerer on September 08, 2014, 12:18:35 PM
Kate and Wills doing their bit...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29108010
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 08, 2014, 12:47:09 PM
Who gets the oil?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 12:50:28 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 08, 2014, 12:47:09 PM
Who gets the oil?

Scotland, but Cameron is now telling them there is hardly any left, they'll soon run out of money and will crash.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 08, 2014, 01:16:57 PM
Quote from: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 12:50:28 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 08, 2014, 12:47:09 PM
Who gets the oil?

Scotland, but Cameron is now telling them there is hardly any left, they'll soon run out of money and will crash.

Not really, all they need to do is reduce their corporate tax rates and the Banking Sector will up sticks to Edinburgh in a jiffy.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 08, 2014, 01:48:58 PM
Quote from: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 12:50:28 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 08, 2014, 12:47:09 PM
Who gets the oil?

Scotland, but Cameron is now telling them there is hardly any left, they'll soon run out of money and will crash.

That being the case....I think Connacht should declare independence.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rois on September 08, 2014, 01:54:48 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 08, 2014, 01:16:57 PM
Quote from: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 12:50:28 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 08, 2014, 12:47:09 PM
Who gets the oil?

Scotland, but Cameron is now telling them there is hardly any left, they'll soon run out of money and will crash.

Not really, all they need to do is reduce their corporate tax rates and the Banking Sector will up sticks to Edinburgh in a jiffy.
If it's a No from Scotland, it'll significantly significantly enhance our chances here of getting corporation tax devolved.  The decision has been delayed until after this referendum and appears to be entirely dependent on the result in Scotland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 02:05:13 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/08/england-love-bombing-scotland-no-vote-westminster
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lecale2 on September 08, 2014, 02:52:07 PM
Prince William has promised to call the baby Jock if the Scots vote no. Even if it's a girl.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 05:28:02 PM
This should work. High Ulster Protestant culture - burgers, vomit, cider, Lambeg drums - will surely swing it

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-orangemen-to-march-in-edinburgh-ahead-of-referendum-1.1921768

Orange Order members from Northern Ireland are set to march in Scotland to demonstrate their support for a No vote in the upcoming independence referendum.

A Belfast-based spokesman for the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland confirmed that Irish Grand Master Edward Stevenson would travel to Edinburgh with other senior Orangemen.


Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 08, 2014, 05:33:13 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 05:28:02 PM
This should work. High Ulster Protestant culture - burgers, vomit, cider, Lambeg drums - will surely swing it

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-orangemen-to-march-in-edinburgh-ahead-of-referendum-1.1921768

Orange Order members from Northern Ireland are set to march in Scotland to demonstrate their support for a No vote in the upcoming independence referendum.

A Belfast-based spokesman for the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland confirmed that Irish Grand Master Edward Stevenson would travel to Edinburgh with other senior Orangemen.

It's a definite YES then  ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 08, 2014, 05:42:11 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 05:28:02 PM
This should work. High Ulster Protestant culture - burgers, vomit, cider, Lambeg drums - will surely swing it

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-orangemen-to-march-in-edinburgh-ahead-of-referendum-1.1921768

Orange Order members from Northern Ireland are set to march in Scotland to demonstrate their support for a No vote in the upcoming independence referendum.

A Belfast-based spokesman for the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland confirmed that Irish Grand Master Edward Stevenson would travel to Edinburgh with other senior Orangemen.

I take it the SNP are paying for this.  :D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 08, 2014, 09:08:11 PM
Quote from: ziggysego on September 08, 2014, 10:38:08 AM
I can't see Scotland voting Yes on the 18th. Only a 2% lead in the poll and mostly from swinging undecided voters. They'll swing back to No on the day. However, Salmond says it's actually a 5% lead and Mumsnet say it's 4%.
Turnout will be a massive factor if the gap is likely to be less than 5%.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 08, 2014, 09:09:01 PM
What would it mean for NI? Would it have any direct implications IF the Scots vote yes. I can't see it happening myself, but just wondering would the Unionists shit themselves or put up more flegs?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 08, 2014, 09:09:46 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 07, 2014, 11:26:29 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 07, 2014, 10:58:30 PM
It will be interesting to see how many people change their mind in the ballot box and take the safe option of voting No

The Québec example is often cited, where the "Yes" side was ahead of "No" by about 3%, but on the day the "No" side won by the narrowest of margins, as people chickened out in the polling station.
Or maybe it was just within the margin of error?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 09:56:43 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 08, 2014, 09:09:01 PM
What would it mean for NI? Would it have any direct implications IF the Scots vote yes. I can't see it happening myself, but just wondering would the Unionists shit themselves or put up more flegs?
the former , I bet

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/df8e3328-34df-11e4-ba5d-00144feabdc0.html
Electoral outcomes are driven by fundamentals, and the cold truth about the union is that the fundamentals binding it were weakening before Mr Alexander was born 46 years ago. The British empire, existential threats from the continent, Protestantism, the armed forces – the first two of these great adhesives have gone, the last two are not quite what they were. The substance of the union has been thinning out since 1945
The UK is not an immutable fact of nature; it is a human design that can be undesigned when the circumstances that gave rise to it no longer obtain. The break-up of the union would be sad and a practical ordeal that would suck up years of work in both Westminster and Holyrood. But it would not be an aberration. Historical forces make it explicable.


Nigel Dodds and Donaldson are 2 of the greatest lickarses in politics, professing their undying loyalty in every Westminster speech and a Yes vote would take the ground from under them.   
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 08, 2014, 11:39:40 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 08, 2014, 05:28:02 PM
This should work. High Ulster Protestant culture - burgers, vomit, cider, Lambeg drums - will surely swing it

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ni-orangemen-to-march-in-edinburgh-ahead-of-referendum-1.1921768

Orange Order members from Northern Ireland are set to march in Scotland to demonstrate their support for a No vote in the upcoming independence referendum.

A Belfast-based spokesman for the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland confirmed that Irish Grand Master Edward Stevenson would travel to Edinburgh with other senior Orangemen.

Maybe they could bring over some of their old "Ulster says NO" banners

(https://c2.staticflickr.com/6/5214/5439729674_26d59c4513_z.jpg)

(http://cyberprod.smugmug.com/Parades1980s/Ulster-Says-No-1986/i-sVFmJNn/3/L/Ulster%20Says%20No%20Rally_0001-L.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 09, 2014, 12:40:07 AM
Latest poll gives fractional majority for "no", but most of the don't knows tending "yes".
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/09/scottish-independence-tns-poll-1-per-cent-gap-yes-no

there is some suggestion that the don't knows are women and Labour catholic types, the latter should be encouraged by the OO on Saturday.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 09, 2014, 06:17:34 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 08, 2014, 09:09:01 PM
What would it mean for NI? Would it have any direct implications IF the Scots vote yes. I can't see it happening myself, but just wondering would the Unionists shit themselves or put up more flegs?

I'd say you'll see an upsurge in loyalist violence. They've always been very effective at staying on message and framing their handiwork as being "in retaliation" for whatever the latest republican provocation was, but the truth is loyalist violence has usually surged at times when the union seemed threatened.  Times like Sunningdale, the Anglo Irish Agreement, etc..
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 09, 2014, 08:10:28 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxB4jqcIUAAb0Jv.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Tony Baloney on September 09, 2014, 08:31:59 AM
A Scottish fella in work says while he is all for independence it isn't a straightforward "yes"as he doesn't believe the SNP, and Alex Salmond in particular, are the right people to lead the country.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 09, 2014, 10:53:32 AM
I'm sure they'd still have elections in an Independent Scotland so he could vote for others.
No doubt  with its goal achieved the SNP would have no real reason to exist and would begin to splinter.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Declan on September 09, 2014, 12:58:41 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxFncUaCEAA9l9n.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 09, 2014, 02:10:06 PM
Interesting article by Irvine Welsh on the Bella Caledonia blog which probably reflects the outlooks of a fair amount of non-SNP 'yes' supporters.

http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/09/08/labour-pains-labour-of-love/

Labour Pains, Labour of Love

Labour: Where Did It All Go Wrong?

by Irvine Welsh

When I think back to how the Scottish independence debate has evolved in terms of my personal journey, I can see it in three distinct phases. The first was best expressed by the bitter and ugly sentiment "it's all the English's fault." This guff was fairly ubiquitously trumpeted when I was a kid, and largely sustained, I believe, by an infantile football mentality. I was always unmoved by this idiocy: nobody was going to tell me that my cousins in Wolverhampton or Aunt in West London were in any way culpable for our circumstances north of the border. In retrospect, the ban on the annual Scotland v England match was the best thing that ever happened to the debate, it helped folk think a little more clearly. When 'politics' is mixed up with football, the end result is invariably the ossification of cretinism. This phase left it's psychological legacy; to this day I find it hard to support the Scottish national team, or, indeed, have any truck with the term 'nationalism'.

    I've been greatly inspired by the post-devolution generation, and their pragmatic thinking on the issue of independence.

I came from a family of trade unionists, and in my youth I was a Labour Party supporter. My political hero was Tony Benn. I recall, with my dad, watching Neil Kinnock in a political broadcast, and, roused by the Welshman's stirring oratory, I joined the party in my teens. I hated the SNP, regarding them as a divisive force of tartan Tories. I loved Brian Wilson's attacks on them, in magazines like the West Highland Free Press and the short-lived Seven Days.

For most of my young adult life, I moved between Edinburgh and London. As the 1980's wore on, I noted how things started to change in Scotland; there was a growing realisation that the problem wasn't the English, it was our own stupid selves. Whatever our circumstances, they were only existent because we tolerated them. This was what I regard as 'phase two' on the evolutionary scale of the Scottish Independence debate. It was progress, for sure, but the downside of it was the self-hating element, which the character Renton identifies with in Trainspotting. Ultimately self-loathing is no more edifying than the scapegoating of others, but in order to make headway it's probably essential to face up to your own shortcomings, no matter how painful. And this led us to stage three of the debate.

I've been greatly inspired by the post-devolution generation, and their pragmatic thinking on the issue of independence. I believe they have enabled an emotionally backward and immature country (as all countries, by definition must be, when they are governed from elsewhere) to grow up and move forward. It's this generation who have given us phase three of the independence debate: beautiful, wonderful phase three, which says that it doesn't matter who is to 'blame', the important thing is to fix it.

When I was recently back in both Scotland and England, it was instructive to see how generational the independence debate has become and how my own one has split on the issue. There is certainly far less unanimity between us than there is with the smart, educated young people I met in Edinburgh. Almost to a man and woman they were enthusiastically, if critically, on the 'yes' side of the discussion. Crucially, the few who demurred seemed very different from the depressed, resentful naysayers of my own generation, in that they were also highly ebullient about the ongoing discourse. This youth represents the new Scotland; they won't be looking for safe a Labour seat in Westminster, or marching in sectarian parades with flute and pipe bands, and they are equally unexcited by the tartan army-esque see-you-Jimmy buffoonery of kitschy nationalism.

It's a little painful to report that the representatives of this post-devolution generation were far more impressive than many of my old comrades. Of my motley crew, the ones excited and revitalised by the independence debate are all firmly 'yes' advocates. But my 'no' friends, all people I respect (and yes, love), were invariably annoyed, scared and even angry, that this debate, this democracy, this real discussion on their own futures was even taking place. When I asked why, what kept coming back was that we should be talking about something else. That they were almost all Labour Party supporters should come as no surprise, nor should it be a shock that the 'something else' was usually defined as 'kicking the Tories out.' To what end, I would enquire. To build a fairer society, was the invariable reply. So I wondered, sometimes out loud, sometimes not, how exactly they intended to do that. Through Trident? War in Iraq? NHS trusts? Deregulation of the City, with subsequent bailouts after they fucked it up? Through the House of Lords? Or the continuing negation of democracy, and siphonage of the country's resources to a transnational elite?

It struck me that we, the post-war consensus generations from hippy to punk to post punk to house, have left them, the new breed, this youth engaged and politicised at grass roots level by the independence debate, with absolutely nothing. The trade unions have been debilitated, Labour rebranded as a centre-right conservative party, the welfare state and the NHS destroyed, and with this, a massive redistribution of wealth from everybody to the super rich. And all of this took place on our watch.

    So if the current youth of Scotland, with their free tuition fees and free medicines, have been 'bought off' by Salmond, it has been in exactly the same way that I was 'bought off' by Bevan.

The delusion by many on the left, that by trying to maintain the United Kingdom (the clue is in the name) they are fighting to preserve some sort of socialist internationalism, is an astonishingly persistent one, representing the ultimate triumph of hope over experience. The UK has always been an imperialist construct, set up to protect and further the interests of the rich. There was a brief period after the Second World War when it sought to be something more. The elites conned people into participating in the bloodbath of WW1 on the promise of 'homes fit for heroes' and the 'patriots' were rewarded with more slums, a depression, and hunger marches that met with only the indifference and hostility of the UK state. Then, the ordinary folks were shunted back into the line of fire to face the Nazi's. Something fundamental did happen when we opened Hitler's death camps at Auschwitz and Dachau, and our collective humanity was stirred. Moreover, people returned in the mood to fight for concessions, and the elites were pragmatically ready to concede them.  So we had the emergence of a post war consensus and the welfare state.

I was a benefactor of that consensus. I took evening classes at the local college for a pound, had my university fees paid, obtained a full student grant, and benefited from universal healthcare. For the social equivalent of me today, making this progress would be impossible without accruing a lifetime of debt and becoming no better than a slave – f**k that bullshit. So if the current youth of Scotland, with their free tuition fees and free medicines, have been 'bought off' by Salmond, it has been in exactly the same way that I was 'bought off' by Bevan.

All that has now gone, and the Labour Party will not be bringing it back. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were no aberrations; they were the natural progression of a movement that has 'evolved' from its radical roots into a centre-right focus group-driven party of power. Now, on a policy level, they chase middle England votes, while lecturing working class people on their 'duty to vote' (Labour), in order to 'keep the Tories out'.

Gordon Brown's recent book My Scotland, Our Britain on the case for the union, like his critique of Thatcherism, Where There Is Greed, would be highly impressive if this was still 1985, and he himself hadn't been in power for so much of the time that has passed since it was. Yes, politics is the art of the possible, but the message from the Labour Party to the people, is that in the face of neo-liberalism, nothing is possible – but keep voting for us anyway. Why?  Because, goes the stock reply, 'we care more than the Tories'. This is true of Labour voters and party members, but it hasn't been true of the leadership for a long, long time. They don't seem to care that much that it's likely that UKIP, the right-wing of the Tory party and the Mail and Sun will set the agenda at the next election. A no vote is therefore a vote to preserve that poisonous dialogue of nationalist politics, with more unwanted racist policies on Europe, immigration and security, foisted onto Scotland.

Our Labour has gone; it probably died when it got rid of Clause Four, the 'public ownership' statement, which served as the radical conscience of the party.

An anti-independence argument, repeated in the discussions with my old Labour-supporting pals, is one I've consistently heard down the years. It contends that we have to 'stand alongside our comrades in England.' I agree wholeheartedly, but fail to get how 'standing alongside' somebody involves trudging to the polling booth every five years and sheepishly sending down a cluster of political class lobby-fodder careerists to Westminster, who then continue to preside over the transfer of resources from the rest of us to the super rich. The brutal truth is that we haven't properly 'stood alongside' any English or Welsh comrades since the miners strike of 84-85, because we haven't been able to – the UK state has made sure of that with its anti-union laws. Yes, the same ones the Labour Party has had plenty of chances to modify or repeal, and let people in their workplaces have a role in our democracy. I recall twelve years later, really 'standing alongside' comrades in Liverpool during the dockworkers dispute, to the complete indifference and embarrassment of the Labour Party, who would rather have had everybody just go home. Towards the end of the strike, I was sitting in a London hotel with Dockers leader Jimmy Nolan and the writer Jimmy McGovern, meeting American intellectual Noam Chomsky. Jimmy Nolan was telling our visitor that they had far more support from Larry Bower's New York longshoremen than the UK Labour Party or senior Trade Union officials like Bill (Lord) Morris. Where was this 'internationalism' or 'solidarity' from the Labour leadership? By contrast there was significant support from the Labour rank and file. They deserved better then, and they deserve better now, than a leadership that stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Conservative Party against Scottish independence. Our Labour has gone; it probably died when it got rid of Clause Four, the 'public ownership' statement, which served as the radical conscience of the party. (I think of it as being the member of the band who kept it real. Nobody listened to him that much, because they knew that if he had his way they would never sell another record. But once he was kicked out, the band quickly lost its soul and now contests the 'political' version of Britain's Got Talent every five years.)

Therefore I don't designate what we're currently doing as 'standing alongside' anybody; I call it endorsing a set-up that maintains our joint misery. Better to call time on that self-defeating nonsense and encourage and inspire others to do the same. This 'internationalism', so publically heralded by 'No' leftists, (but only in response to the Scottish independence threat –otherwise its generally forgotten about) has in reality been used as a Trojan horse for a corporate-led globalisation and imperialism, where this transfer of resources from the rest to the rich is aided and abetted by the UK state.

On a related note, as well as Scotland and England, I visited Ireland, where I lived for five years, in order to attend a wedding. I felt just as close to my friends there as I did to the ones in England and Scotland: we don't need to have the same domestic governments to moan about in order to bond as human beings over common areas of concern. It's called internationalism, and as tough a concept as it is for some people to grasp, that doesn't stop or start at London. Independence isn't divisive; gross inequality, as promoted by the UK state, now that is schismatic.

So perhaps the unionist apologists from my generation should consider that it isn't just about them any more. A march towards democracy is a process, not a destination; it's not solely about a 'vote' on September 18th, or any other vote. It's not about politicians, including 'Salmond' (the bogey man who brought us free prescriptions, paid higher education fees, and protected the NHS from Labour and Conservative privatising trusts – that's also the one who hasn't led us into war in Iraq, deregulated the City, redistributed our wealth to the already stinking rich – we should choose our demons with a sense of perspective), for once, just this once, it simply isn't their party.

What I think it is about, is this generation having something of their own, a project that inspires them. The rest of us should be cheering them on, not sneering, grumbling, or 'standing alongside' establishment reactionaries against them, fuelled by a petty strop because we so manifestly failed to deliver on our own dreams. For the new generation, social progress is about more than trying to vote in a right-wing Labour Party every five years.

So maybe its time to let those smart young Scots take the lead in building something different and inspirational, free from the whines of the browbeaten, gloomy naysayers and vested interests of the elitist no-can-dooers. And, while we're at it, support the bright young people of England in getting on with creating a truly post-imperial, multi-ethnic civic identity and democratic society, based on ability, rather than cemented rank and privilege. Give them the chance to take the fight to the Tories, UKIP, EDL, BNP and other small minds, without being distracted by the Scottish agenda, which will not go away. As with the young Scots, I believe in their ability to do just that, without a cynical, moribund Labour Party leadership professing to enable the process, but in reality always standing in their way. Because it's our great conceit that we're currently 'standing alongside' people in England; in my opinion, we're just getting in their road.

I looked at the smirking face of Tony Blair and thought: there is no f**king chance I can ever vote for this guy. I've felt massively liberated ever since.

I believe that our joint aim should be to make these islands the home of a batch of healthy, vibrant democracies, instead of a chess piece in the saddo G7/militaristic 'sphere of influence' games of the power brokers: those war-mongering (never war-fighting) cowards and their pathetic groupies in the privately owned media. Let this happen in Britain, in Europe, across the world. That's internationalism, not preserving an elitist, reactionary, pomp-and-ceremony failed UK state, which has over the last thirty-five years systematically crushed every single gain that non-privileged people in this country have fought for.

Sept 18th is a very small but important step in that process. A 'yes' vote won't deliver the kind of society people aspire to any more than a 'no' vote will derail the aspiration towards it, but it will be a setback to a reactionary UK state, that has promoted little but elitism, hierarchy and the transnational superrich, at the expense of democracy.

I'm still –even now- often asked; don't I feel sad at abandoning the party of my parents and grandparents? I went through that dilemma years ago, when I looked at the smirking face of Tony Blair and thought: there is no f**king chance I can ever vote for this guy. I've felt massively liberated ever since. On the contrary, I feel very angry about the current Labour Party's continual betrayals of everything those generations fought to achieve. Brian Wilson still attacks the SNP, but now from the right, and I can't believe Jack McConnell signed up for all this to argue against food banks from the House of Lords. Neil Kinnock is now a Brussels commissioner who probably doesn't even know there's a referendum in Scotland, but in the Yes movement I feel the same kind of inspiration I did when I was seventeen, after hearing his moving and invigorating speech in that broadcast. I know that plenty others who joined the Labour Party had one of those big moments in their youth too, and that's why I'm writing this piece.  Although I detest what it has become, with its detached political class leadership, and spineless, focus group opportunism, the voters and the rank and file members of Labour remain the salt of the earth. Underneath all the cynicism, defeatism and no-can-do-ism they've swallowed down the years, I believe they still want the same thing: a fair and democratic society. They've just been fighting rearguard actions for so long, to defend jobs and services, many have simply forgotten how to go on the offensive. For the first time in years the UK establishment are taking a kicking by the people, and it is on the issue of Scottish independence. Labour should be gleefully putting the boot in, not shielding our blows on their behalf. So we need real Labour people to be inspired again, as they were when they first joined the party, in order to help build new democracies in those islands. And if they try to tell us that they are getting that inspiration from either the UK state or the Labour leadership or the No campaign, we just know that they are faking it. Maybe some have merely grown old and tired. That happens to us all, but becoming a defacto Conservative and standing alongside the establishment, that still remains an optional part of the ageing process.

But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it's only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I've moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it's nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn't distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I've never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it's not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I'm stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn't want it any other way. I'm now a dedicated 'phase three' yes man: let's get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I've said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 09, 2014, 03:02:27 PM
Cracking article. Thanks for posting that up Ulick.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 09, 2014, 03:12:38 PM
I'll second that sentiment, seanie. Ticked an awful lot of boxes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 09, 2014, 06:09:34 PM
F*ck I wish I could articulate an argument like Welsh. Fantastic read.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lecale2 on September 09, 2014, 09:19:29 PM
Good stuff.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: FL/MAYO on September 09, 2014, 10:15:20 PM
Great read.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: orangeman on September 09, 2014, 11:21:58 PM
Serious read alright.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 10, 2014, 12:01:38 AM
And for the other side of the argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100285695/to-save-the-union-we-have-to-say-it-out-loud-britain-is-the-greatest-country-in-the-world/

To save the Union, we have to say it out loud: Britain is the greatest country in the world

How do we explain that poll – the one that put the "yes" vote above the "no" vote in next week's Scottish referendum? It's partly down to Alex Salmond's clever job of turning the election into "more misery under the Tories" vs "an independent socialist utopia with free kittens for all". But the bigger problem is that the "no" campaign has relied far too much on negativism and what has sometimes sounded like economic blackmail: leave the Union and your economy will collapse. Little emotional case for Britishness has been made. The nationalists have been free to play the romance card without challenge and to sound like the more authentically Scottish voice in the campaign. The nationalist narrative has been helped by two factors:

1. Pro-Union Scots have taken it for granted for so long that Scottishness and Britishness are one-and-the-same that they've never felt the need even to think about it. Hence, they haven't found the right words in the past few weeks to articulate it.

2. Westminster has failed to provide a single, charismatic, unifying British voice to head the pro-Union campaign and make the case for nation-as-family. Where is our generation's Churchill? Or Hardie or Bevan? David Cameron has remained removed from the action out of fear of causing offence with his accent, while Ed Miliband has clumped around Scotland looking like a gap year student discovering a strange and exotic land. The Scottish referendum has horribly and embarrassingly exposed the metropolitanism of our political class – as well as its dearth of imagination.

All of which points to one inescapable conclusion: to win this thing for the Union, we have to start thinking and talking like Brits again. We have to remember what makes us who we are.

I don't know why voters haven't been reminded of this, but we are a Union that wins wars. We licked Napoleon, we licked the Kaiser, we licked Hitler and we licked Galtieri. And what did we fight for? For a nation bound by a common language – that of Thomas, Burns and Shakespeare. For traditions of free speech, religious tolerance, property, democracy and civil rights. For each other as neighbours and cousins (we were multi-cultural before the Left dreamed up the term). We've committed sins together such as slavery and imperialism. But we've atoned for them together, too: abolishing the former and ending the latter with remarkable courtesy. We fought overseas for a better way of life here, for a welfare state that has its flaws but is rooted in a commonly held Christian decency. And, most of all, we've fought for what is our home. The gardens of England. The wild valleys of Wales. The rugged, gorgeous coast of Northern Ireland. The calm, frosty waters of the mysterious lochs. Britishness is defined by its soil – by the fertile earth that kept us all for centuries. The land may be temporarily governed by Tories, socialists or even treacherous Lib Dems. But don't, as Alex Salmond does, mistake our government for our country. The former is always controversial, always hated by someone. The latter is immutable. The lark will continue to ascend long after this campaign is over. The bluebell will bloom every spring – nodding in the highland breeze as if silently concurring on an eternal truth.

We are not a political project that changes course from time to time. Rather, we are a nation. Nations are above Left and Right, and you stick with them even when they are wrong.

Everyone in Britain has the incredible fortune to be living in the greatest country on the Earth. Probably in history. Of course, every nationality thinks that about their nation – but what makes us unique (and maybe this is key to our greatness) is that we don't like to talk about it. And although it's admirable – call it "classy" – for us to value modesty above ugly chauvinism, remaining quiet about our virtues means that when times are tough then we may not be able to explain why patriotism should triumph over self-interest. If the Scots are edging towards leaving then it's partly because they think they can do better alone and are still waiting for a reason why they should put the endurance of the wider nation first. To save the Union we love, we have to talk more openly about why we love it. Why, in ages past, so many men have died for it.

So for the next few days, can we please stop being self-effacingly British and instead be obnoxiously, proudly British? Proud of the country that invented economics, the internet, the principle of trial by jury, and James Bond. Proud of our economy, our army, our communities and our role as a global power. Proud to be part of a country that millions of people overseas look at and admire as a beacon of wealth and human rights. A country we are, by the grace of God, fortunate to call "home".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Puckoon on September 10, 2014, 01:05:34 AM
We may be a small country, but we're a great one, too. The country of Shakespeare, Churchill, the Beatles, Sean Connery, Harry Potter. David Beckham's right foot. David Beckham's left foot, come to that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on September 10, 2014, 01:42:41 AM
Last  unionist blog post clearly not too familiar with poetry of Burns who wrote of the traitors who signed the Union in 1707.

O would, or I had seen the day

That Treason thus could sell us,

My auld grey head had lien in clay

Wi Bruce and loyal Wallace!

But pith and power, till my last hour

I'll mak this declaration

We're bought and sold for English gold -

Sic a parcel o rogues in a nation!

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggy90 on September 10, 2014, 06:53:03 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 09, 2014, 02:10:06 PM
Interesting article by Irvine Welsh on the Bella Caledonia blog which probably reflects the outlooks of a fair amount of non-SNP 'yes' supporters.

http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/09/08/labour-pains-labour-of-love/

Labour Pains, Labour of Love

Labour: Where Did It All Go Wrong?

by Irvine Welsh

When I think back to how the Scottish independence debate has evolved in terms of my personal journey, I can see it in three distinct phases. The first was best expressed by the bitter and ugly sentiment "it's all the English's fault." This guff was fairly ubiquitously trumpeted when I was a kid, and largely sustained, I believe, by an infantile football mentality. I was always unmoved by this idiocy: nobody was going to tell me that my cousins in Wolverhampton or Aunt in West London were in any way culpable for our circumstances north of the border. In retrospect, the ban on the annual Scotland v England match was the best thing that ever happened to the debate, it helped folk think a little more clearly. When 'politics' is mixed up with football, the end result is invariably the ossification of cretinism. This phase left it's psychological legacy; to this day I find it hard to support the Scottish national team, or, indeed, have any truck with the term 'nationalism'.

    I've been greatly inspired by the post-devolution generation, and their pragmatic thinking on the issue of independence.

I came from a family of trade unionists, and in my youth I was a Labour Party supporter. My political hero was Tony Benn. I recall, with my dad, watching Neil Kinnock in a political broadcast, and, roused by the Welshman's stirring oratory, I joined the party in my teens. I hated the SNP, regarding them as a divisive force of tartan Tories. I loved Brian Wilson's attacks on them, in magazines like the West Highland Free Press and the short-lived Seven Days.

For most of my young adult life, I moved between Edinburgh and London. As the 1980's wore on, I noted how things started to change in Scotland; there was a growing realisation that the problem wasn't the English, it was our own stupid selves. Whatever our circumstances, they were only existent because we tolerated them. This was what I regard as 'phase two' on the evolutionary scale of the Scottish Independence debate. It was progress, for sure, but the downside of it was the self-hating element, which the character Renton identifies with in Trainspotting. Ultimately self-loathing is no more edifying than the scapegoating of others, but in order to make headway it's probably essential to face up to your own shortcomings, no matter how painful. And this led us to stage three of the debate.

I've been greatly inspired by the post-devolution generation, and their pragmatic thinking on the issue of independence. I believe they have enabled an emotionally backward and immature country (as all countries, by definition must be, when they are governed from elsewhere) to grow up and move forward. It's this generation who have given us phase three of the independence debate: beautiful, wonderful phase three, which says that it doesn't matter who is to 'blame', the important thing is to fix it.

When I was recently back in both Scotland and England, it was instructive to see how generational the independence debate has become and how my own one has split on the issue. There is certainly far less unanimity between us than there is with the smart, educated young people I met in Edinburgh. Almost to a man and woman they were enthusiastically, if critically, on the 'yes' side of the discussion. Crucially, the few who demurred seemed very different from the depressed, resentful naysayers of my own generation, in that they were also highly ebullient about the ongoing discourse. This youth represents the new Scotland; they won't be looking for safe a Labour seat in Westminster, or marching in sectarian parades with flute and pipe bands, and they are equally unexcited by the tartan army-esque see-you-Jimmy buffoonery of kitschy nationalism.

It's a little painful to report that the representatives of this post-devolution generation were far more impressive than many of my old comrades. Of my motley crew, the ones excited and revitalised by the independence debate are all firmly 'yes' advocates. But my 'no' friends, all people I respect (and yes, love), were invariably annoyed, scared and even angry, that this debate, this democracy, this real discussion on their own futures was even taking place. When I asked why, what kept coming back was that we should be talking about something else. That they were almost all Labour Party supporters should come as no surprise, nor should it be a shock that the 'something else' was usually defined as 'kicking the Tories out.' To what end, I would enquire. To build a fairer society, was the invariable reply. So I wondered, sometimes out loud, sometimes not, how exactly they intended to do that. Through Trident? War in Iraq? NHS trusts? Deregulation of the City, with subsequent bailouts after they fucked it up? Through the House of Lords? Or the continuing negation of democracy, and siphonage of the country's resources to a transnational elite?

It struck me that we, the post-war consensus generations from hippy to punk to post punk to house, have left them, the new breed, this youth engaged and politicised at grass roots level by the independence debate, with absolutely nothing. The trade unions have been debilitated, Labour rebranded as a centre-right conservative party, the welfare state and the NHS destroyed, and with this, a massive redistribution of wealth from everybody to the super rich. And all of this took place on our watch.

    So if the current youth of Scotland, with their free tuition fees and free medicines, have been 'bought off' by Salmond, it has been in exactly the same way that I was 'bought off' by Bevan.

The delusion by many on the left, that by trying to maintain the United Kingdom (the clue is in the name) they are fighting to preserve some sort of socialist internationalism, is an astonishingly persistent one, representing the ultimate triumph of hope over experience. The UK has always been an imperialist construct, set up to protect and further the interests of the rich. There was a brief period after the Second World War when it sought to be something more. The elites conned people into participating in the bloodbath of WW1 on the promise of 'homes fit for heroes' and the 'patriots' were rewarded with more slums, a depression, and hunger marches that met with only the indifference and hostility of the UK state. Then, the ordinary folks were shunted back into the line of fire to face the Nazi's. Something fundamental did happen when we opened Hitler's death camps at Auschwitz and Dachau, and our collective humanity was stirred. Moreover, people returned in the mood to fight for concessions, and the elites were pragmatically ready to concede them.  So we had the emergence of a post war consensus and the welfare state.

I was a benefactor of that consensus. I took evening classes at the local college for a pound, had my university fees paid, obtained a full student grant, and benefited from universal healthcare. For the social equivalent of me today, making this progress would be impossible without accruing a lifetime of debt and becoming no better than a slave – f**k that bullshit. So if the current youth of Scotland, with their free tuition fees and free medicines, have been 'bought off' by Salmond, it has been in exactly the same way that I was 'bought off' by Bevan.

All that has now gone, and the Labour Party will not be bringing it back. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown were no aberrations; they were the natural progression of a movement that has 'evolved' from its radical roots into a centre-right focus group-driven party of power. Now, on a policy level, they chase middle England votes, while lecturing working class people on their 'duty to vote' (Labour), in order to 'keep the Tories out'.

Gordon Brown's recent book My Scotland, Our Britain on the case for the union, like his critique of Thatcherism, Where There Is Greed, would be highly impressive if this was still 1985, and he himself hadn't been in power for so much of the time that has passed since it was. Yes, politics is the art of the possible, but the message from the Labour Party to the people, is that in the face of neo-liberalism, nothing is possible – but keep voting for us anyway. Why?  Because, goes the stock reply, 'we care more than the Tories'. This is true of Labour voters and party members, but it hasn't been true of the leadership for a long, long time. They don't seem to care that much that it's likely that UKIP, the right-wing of the Tory party and the Mail and Sun will set the agenda at the next election. A no vote is therefore a vote to preserve that poisonous dialogue of nationalist politics, with more unwanted racist policies on Europe, immigration and security, foisted onto Scotland.

Our Labour has gone; it probably died when it got rid of Clause Four, the 'public ownership' statement, which served as the radical conscience of the party.

An anti-independence argument, repeated in the discussions with my old Labour-supporting pals, is one I've consistently heard down the years. It contends that we have to 'stand alongside our comrades in England.' I agree wholeheartedly, but fail to get how 'standing alongside' somebody involves trudging to the polling booth every five years and sheepishly sending down a cluster of political class lobby-fodder careerists to Westminster, who then continue to preside over the transfer of resources from the rest of us to the super rich. The brutal truth is that we haven't properly 'stood alongside' any English or Welsh comrades since the miners strike of 84-85, because we haven't been able to – the UK state has made sure of that with its anti-union laws. Yes, the same ones the Labour Party has had plenty of chances to modify or repeal, and let people in their workplaces have a role in our democracy. I recall twelve years later, really 'standing alongside' comrades in Liverpool during the dockworkers dispute, to the complete indifference and embarrassment of the Labour Party, who would rather have had everybody just go home. Towards the end of the strike, I was sitting in a London hotel with Dockers leader Jimmy Nolan and the writer Jimmy McGovern, meeting American intellectual Noam Chomsky. Jimmy Nolan was telling our visitor that they had far more support from Larry Bower's New York longshoremen than the UK Labour Party or senior Trade Union officials like Bill (Lord) Morris. Where was this 'internationalism' or 'solidarity' from the Labour leadership? By contrast there was significant support from the Labour rank and file. They deserved better then, and they deserve better now, than a leadership that stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Conservative Party against Scottish independence. Our Labour has gone; it probably died when it got rid of Clause Four, the 'public ownership' statement, which served as the radical conscience of the party. (I think of it as being the member of the band who kept it real. Nobody listened to him that much, because they knew that if he had his way they would never sell another record. But once he was kicked out, the band quickly lost its soul and now contests the 'political' version of Britain's Got Talent every five years.)

Therefore I don't designate what we're currently doing as 'standing alongside' anybody; I call it endorsing a set-up that maintains our joint misery. Better to call time on that self-defeating nonsense and encourage and inspire others to do the same. This 'internationalism', so publically heralded by 'No' leftists, (but only in response to the Scottish independence threat –otherwise its generally forgotten about) has in reality been used as a Trojan horse for a corporate-led globalisation and imperialism, where this transfer of resources from the rest to the rich is aided and abetted by the UK state.

On a related note, as well as Scotland and England, I visited Ireland, where I lived for five years, in order to attend a wedding. I felt just as close to my friends there as I did to the ones in England and Scotland: we don't need to have the same domestic governments to moan about in order to bond as human beings over common areas of concern. It's called internationalism, and as tough a concept as it is for some people to grasp, that doesn't stop or start at London. Independence isn't divisive; gross inequality, as promoted by the UK state, now that is schismatic.

So perhaps the unionist apologists from my generation should consider that it isn't just about them any more. A march towards democracy is a process, not a destination; it's not solely about a 'vote' on September 18th, or any other vote. It's not about politicians, including 'Salmond' (the bogey man who brought us free prescriptions, paid higher education fees, and protected the NHS from Labour and Conservative privatising trusts – that's also the one who hasn't led us into war in Iraq, deregulated the City, redistributed our wealth to the already stinking rich – we should choose our demons with a sense of perspective), for once, just this once, it simply isn't their party.

What I think it is about, is this generation having something of their own, a project that inspires them. The rest of us should be cheering them on, not sneering, grumbling, or 'standing alongside' establishment reactionaries against them, fuelled by a petty strop because we so manifestly failed to deliver on our own dreams. For the new generation, social progress is about more than trying to vote in a right-wing Labour Party every five years.

So maybe its time to let those smart young Scots take the lead in building something different and inspirational, free from the whines of the browbeaten, gloomy naysayers and vested interests of the elitist no-can-dooers. And, while we're at it, support the bright young people of England in getting on with creating a truly post-imperial, multi-ethnic civic identity and democratic society, based on ability, rather than cemented rank and privilege. Give them the chance to take the fight to the Tories, UKIP, EDL, BNP and other small minds, without being distracted by the Scottish agenda, which will not go away. As with the young Scots, I believe in their ability to do just that, without a cynical, moribund Labour Party leadership professing to enable the process, but in reality always standing in their way. Because it's our great conceit that we're currently 'standing alongside' people in England; in my opinion, we're just getting in their road.

I looked at the smirking face of Tony Blair and thought: there is no f**king chance I can ever vote for this guy. I've felt massively liberated ever since.

I believe that our joint aim should be to make these islands the home of a batch of healthy, vibrant democracies, instead of a chess piece in the saddo G7/militaristic 'sphere of influence' games of the power brokers: those war-mongering (never war-fighting) cowards and their pathetic groupies in the privately owned media. Let this happen in Britain, in Europe, across the world. That's internationalism, not preserving an elitist, reactionary, pomp-and-ceremony failed UK state, which has over the last thirty-five years systematically crushed every single gain that non-privileged people in this country have fought for.

Sept 18th is a very small but important step in that process. A 'yes' vote won't deliver the kind of society people aspire to any more than a 'no' vote will derail the aspiration towards it, but it will be a setback to a reactionary UK state, that has promoted little but elitism, hierarchy and the transnational superrich, at the expense of democracy.

I'm still –even now- often asked; don't I feel sad at abandoning the party of my parents and grandparents? I went through that dilemma years ago, when I looked at the smirking face of Tony Blair and thought: there is no f**king chance I can ever vote for this guy. I've felt massively liberated ever since. On the contrary, I feel very angry about the current Labour Party's continual betrayals of everything those generations fought to achieve. Brian Wilson still attacks the SNP, but now from the right, and I can't believe Jack McConnell signed up for all this to argue against food banks from the House of Lords. Neil Kinnock is now a Brussels commissioner who probably doesn't even know there's a referendum in Scotland, but in the Yes movement I feel the same kind of inspiration I did when I was seventeen, after hearing his moving and invigorating speech in that broadcast. I know that plenty others who joined the Labour Party had one of those big moments in their youth too, and that's why I'm writing this piece.  Although I detest what it has become, with its detached political class leadership, and spineless, focus group opportunism, the voters and the rank and file members of Labour remain the salt of the earth. Underneath all the cynicism, defeatism and no-can-do-ism they've swallowed down the years, I believe they still want the same thing: a fair and democratic society. They've just been fighting rearguard actions for so long, to defend jobs and services, many have simply forgotten how to go on the offensive. For the first time in years the UK establishment are taking a kicking by the people, and it is on the issue of Scottish independence. Labour should be gleefully putting the boot in, not shielding our blows on their behalf. So we need real Labour people to be inspired again, as they were when they first joined the party, in order to help build new democracies in those islands. And if they try to tell us that they are getting that inspiration from either the UK state or the Labour leadership or the No campaign, we just know that they are faking it. Maybe some have merely grown old and tired. That happens to us all, but becoming a defacto Conservative and standing alongside the establishment, that still remains an optional part of the ageing process.

But after mouthing off about the Labour Party, it's only fair that I make a personal declaration as to where my own politics lie today. Like most people, I've moved away from my tartan Tory perception of the SNP and accept it as a benign, bourgeois party of the centre-left. Yes, it's nakedly opportunist, but that factor certainly doesn't distinguish it in modern politics, and its fairly narrow goal of Scottish independence makes it harder for it to sell out. Nonetheless, its not my party, I've never voted for them and would find it hard to do so, for the same reasons I can no longer vote Labour and will obviously never vote Conservative – it's not in my internationalist DNA. Having long given up on parties, I'm stuck with having my political aspirations for these islands placed squarely in the hands of a new, broadly-based, grass roots campaign led by a different generation, and I wouldn't want it any other way. I'm now a dedicated 'phase three' yes man: let's get it sorted out. But I want as many of my old buddies, and as many real Labour people on that journey as possible, and for bigger reasons than to deliver a yes vote for social progress on the 18th. That, as I've said, is only part of the process. I want them onside, because the core values that they believe in; fairness, justice and democracy, are the only values that a new Scotland -and a new England- can be constructed on.
[/quote

Thanks for posting Ulick, great article. Welsh takes apart the class system as well as making sound case for Scottish independence. I just wish he'd stayed with the Labour Party and fought against the neo-Tories that control it now.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 10, 2014, 08:49:29 AM
I 'LOLed' at Dec's piece. :D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 10, 2014, 09:19:08 AM
Quote from: dec on September 10, 2014, 12:01:38 AM
And for the other side of the argument.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100285695/to-save-the-union-we-have-to-say-it-out-loud-britain-is-the-greatest-country-in-the-world/

To save the Union, we have to say it out loud: Britain is the greatest country in the world

How do we explain that poll – the one that put the "yes" vote above the "no" vote in next week's Scottish referendum? It's partly down to Alex Salmond's clever job of turning the election into "more misery under the Tories" vs "an independent socialist utopia with free kittens for all". But the bigger problem is that the "no" campaign has relied far too much on negativism and what has sometimes sounded like economic blackmail: leave the Union and your economy will collapse. Little emotional case for Britishness has been made. The nationalists have been free to play the romance card without challenge and to sound like the more authentically Scottish voice in the campaign. The nationalist narrative has been helped by two factors:

1. Pro-Union Scots have taken it for granted for so long that Scottishness and Britishness are one-and-the-same that they've never felt the need even to think about it. Hence, they haven't found the right words in the past few weeks to articulate it.

2. Westminster has failed to provide a single, charismatic, unifying British voice to head the pro-Union campaign and make the case for nation-as-family. Where is our generation's Churchill? Or Hardie or Bevan? David Cameron has remained removed from the action out of fear of causing offence with his accent, while Ed Miliband has clumped around Scotland looking like a gap year student discovering a strange and exotic land. The Scottish referendum has horribly and embarrassingly exposed the metropolitanism of our political class – as well as its dearth of imagination.

All of which points to one inescapable conclusion: to win this thing for the Union, we have to start thinking and talking like Brits again. We have to remember what makes us who we are.

I don't know why voters haven't been reminded of this, but we are a Union that wins wars. We licked Napoleon, we licked the Kaiser, we licked Hitler and we licked Galtieri. And what did we fight for? For a nation bound by a common language – that of Thomas, Burns and Shakespeare. For traditions of free speech, religious tolerance, property, democracy and civil rights. For each other as neighbours and cousins (we were multi-cultural before the Left dreamed up the term). We've committed sins together such as slavery and imperialism. But we've atoned for them together, too: abolishing the former and ending the latter with remarkable courtesy. We fought overseas for a better way of life here, for a welfare state that has its flaws but is rooted in a commonly held Christian decency. And, most of all, we've fought for what is our home. The gardens of England. The wild valleys of Wales. The rugged, gorgeous coast of Northern Ireland. The calm, frosty waters of the mysterious lochs. Britishness is defined by its soil – by the fertile earth that kept us all for centuries. The land may be temporarily governed by Tories, socialists or even treacherous Lib Dems. But don't, as Alex Salmond does, mistake our government for our country. The former is always controversial, always hated by someone. The latter is immutable. The lark will continue to ascend long after this campaign is over. The bluebell will bloom every spring – nodding in the highland breeze as if silently concurring on an eternal truth.

We are not a political project that changes course from time to time. Rather, we are a nation. Nations are above Left and Right, and you stick with them even when they are wrong.

Everyone in Britain has the incredible fortune to be living in the greatest country on the Earth. Probably in history. Of course, every nationality thinks that about their nation – but what makes us unique (and maybe this is key to our greatness) is that we don't like to talk about it. And although it's admirable – call it "classy" – for us to value modesty above ugly chauvinism, remaining quiet about our virtues means that when times are tough then we may not be able to explain why patriotism should triumph over self-interest. If the Scots are edging towards leaving then it's partly because they think they can do better alone and are still waiting for a reason why they should put the endurance of the wider nation first. To save the Union we love, we have to talk more openly about why we love it. Why, in ages past, so many men have died for it.

So for the next few days, can we please stop being self-effacingly British and instead be obnoxiously, proudly British? Proud of the country that invented economics, the internet, the principle of trial by jury, and James Bond. Proud of our economy, our army, our communities and our role as a global power. Proud to be part of a country that millions of people overseas look at and admire as a beacon of wealth and human rights. A country we are, by the grace of God, fortunate to call "home".

Hard to beat a bit of fluffy jingoism.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 10, 2014, 09:41:11 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 10, 2014, 09:19:08 AM
Hard to beat a bit of fluffy jingoism.

I dare say it'd be very easy for Yes votes to resist that drivel.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 10, 2014, 09:48:08 AM
There's a much better case for voting No made here (http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/why-i-am-voting-no/). I haven't pasted it in because he does go on a bit. Having been acquainted with the writer in college, I'm not surprised that it is both reasonable and long-winded.

Edit: oh, and the manner in which the Unionists in comments go mental also suggests he is on to something.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 10, 2014, 09:51:03 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2014/sep/10/scotland-referendum-britain-independence-vote

The paint was peeling, and chunks of ceiling seemed precariously balanced, as we sat in a derelict swimming pool in Govanhill community centre, in Glasgow. Inevitably, the surroundings provided many of the passionate speakers at the first Festival of Ideas with a handy metaphor for the union as they elaborated their project of "live as if in the early days of a better nation". From where I was sitting, in the deep end, I saw there is a real danger that over the next 10 days we will profoundly miss the point.

Listening hard, it felt like entering an Alice in Wonderland world because many of the words we think we understand turn out to have radically different meanings in this exhilarating debate north of the border. Most importantly, for many people independence is not about nationalism at all, and certainly not ethnic nationalism (a mistake still being attributed to the yes voters).

But it's not even about the revamped civic nationalism of the Scottish National party either. Many people are quite clear, they are voting yes because they want a new form of politics, better democracy and social justice. It's a massive protest vote against the status quo.

There are varying degrees of idealism, self delusion and realism about the chances of Edinburgh delivering on this promised land, but the point is that increasing numbers think it's worth a try. You can hear the echoes of Thomas Carlyle in the stirring rhetoric on the evils of materialism and neoliberalism. The dubious track record of Alex Salmond on this front is dismissed as irrelevant; post independence, new political parties will form in this brave new world.

There are two implications of this. Regardless of the referendum outcome, the campaign has proved a catastrophic failure for Labour. It is no longer an effective vehicle for democracy and social justice in one of its oldest heartlands. Its vote has collapsed. The word most commonly used in conjunction with Labour is 'corrupt'.

A shrill hysteria has now crept into London-based government and media responses. Words such as foreign and amputation are being thrown about alongside talk of passports and borders. Britain is once again hailed as broken (I blame alliteration). But as the rubble of nationalism is cleared away, there is a second implication as another word is being reinvented: Britishness.

Repeatedly, Scottish yes voters insisted they would remain British. The Irish writer Fintan O'Toole agreed: Ireland was still British. The point made was that when Norway split from Sweden in 1905, Scandinavia emerged as a powerful common identity.

This definition of Britishness is about a shared history and language, and the common reference points of culture and ideas that provides. We are all part of the British Isles, and nothing is going to change that rich interdependency as we continue to fall in love, make babies, make friends, exchange ideas, trade, and visit each other.

As an Atlantic archipelago of islands on the edge of Europe, we have far more in common with each other than not, and do not necessarily need a political union to make that a reality. What we will need is new institutions of collaboration across the nations and regions of the isles.

It's a dramatic redrafting of the story of Britain. In recent decades, it has been self-evident that the Britain of empire and monarchy, of army and church, is history. Britishness has historically been seen as an export, more about how to project ourselves on to the world than how we want to live together. Attempts to revitalise Britishness by claiming human values, such as fair play, rang hollow. The Better Together campaign has been dogged with the absence of any emotionally resonant vision of Britain to articulate as a defence of union.

This idea of Britain is already lost regardless of 18 September's verdict. That much is commonplace. The point, then, is what you do about it. England will have to find its way to a new relationship, one among equals with the other nations that share these British islands.

Agreed, England's impulse for much of the last millennium has been to dominate the cultures and nations of this archipelago, but there are plenty of long overdue reasons why its famed pragmatism could see the sense of recasting those relationships now, given our shared economic interests and environmental resources.

Not all relationships within the British Isles would be configured at Westminster, although England will, by virtue of its size, be a valued partner. Ireland is likely to play a midwife role in the event of an independent Scotland. Northern Ireland's history and connections are more with Scotland than England, and O'Toole rightly suggested that Northern Ireland should be a priority for any independent Scotland.

Why choose the metaphor of divorce, with all its associations of bitterness, recrimination and pain? At a point of history such as this, metaphors are vitally important because they have a way of becoming self fulfilling.

Benedict Anderson famously said nations are "imagined communities". Scotland is busily imagining itself; England is slowly stirring to the same task, and with plentiful resources of radicalism and diversity from which to draw. What we now have to do is use our shared geography. For decades, we have been transfixed by the white cliffs of Dover as a symbol of nation. But if we look west and north to those who share these islands, we can serve our common history and recognise all the unions – of families, cultures, friendships, environment and economy – that will continue as powerfully as ever after 18 September, whatever the vote.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: orangeman on September 10, 2014, 09:58:14 AM
Is there a wee chance that the SNP leaders are privately shiting themselves at the prospect of them winning the vote, that they never really thought that they'd get this close and that being the opposition was nice and easy compared to actually governing ?.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggysego on September 10, 2014, 11:47:11 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 10, 2014, 09:58:14 AM
Is there a wee chance that the SNP leaders are privately shiting themselves at the prospect of them winning the vote, that they never really thought that they'd get this close and that being the opposition was nice and easy compared to actually governing ?.

If it is a Yes, it won't be until 2016 and there's be a fresh round of elections to elect new M(S)Ps. A sizeable amount of Yes voters said they aren't SNP voters and well, none of the No voters would be. Chances are, SNP won't be the largest party in the newly Independent Scotland and Alex probably expects this. Still, would there be any need for the SNP anymore?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 10, 2014, 02:06:04 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 10, 2014, 08:49:29 AM
I 'LOLed' at Dec's piece. :D

It's comedy gold.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: maddog on September 10, 2014, 02:59:32 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/09/yes-vote-in-scotland-most-dangerous-thing-of-all-hope (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/09/yes-vote-in-scotland-most-dangerous-thing-of-all-hope)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Agent Orange on September 10, 2014, 06:46:41 PM
53% No 47% Yes according to Ch4.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 10, 2014, 07:20:09 PM
Quote from: Agent Orange on September 10, 2014, 06:46:41 PM
53% No 47% Yes according to Ch4.

Well within the margin of terror.

(http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/9/10/1410314941810/cd5583e0-f236-4e27-8267-1d4de670299a-460x276.jpeg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 10, 2014, 07:42:36 PM
Quote53% No 47% Yes according to Ch4.

I'd say it will work out a bit like this in the end.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 10, 2014, 08:24:26 PM
So assuming Scotland does vote No, what 'extra powers' will be devolved to Edinburgh?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 10, 2014, 09:49:19 PM
Quote from: ziggysego on September 10, 2014, 11:47:11 AM
Quote from: orangeman on September 10, 2014, 09:58:14 AM
Is there a wee chance that the SNP leaders are privately shiting themselves at the prospect of them winning the vote, that they never really thought that they'd get this close and that being the opposition was nice and easy compared to actually governing ?.

If it is a Yes, it won't be until 2016 and there's be a fresh round of elections to elect new M(S)Ps. A sizeable amount of Yes voters said they aren't SNP voters and well, none of the No voters would be. Chances are, SNP won't be the largest party in the newly Independent Scotland and Alex probably expects this. Still, would there be any need for the SNP anymore?
The SNP has 65 MSPs,  Labour follows with 37. It would take some swing for the SNP to be overtaken as the largest party next time around.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BarryBreensBandage on September 10, 2014, 09:57:49 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 10, 2014, 08:24:26 PM
So assuming Scotland does vote No, what 'extra powers' will be devolved to Edinburgh?

None, according to William Hague:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/referendum-news/hague-giving-scotland-more-powers-if-it-votes-no-is-not-government-policy.1410350878
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: T Fearon on September 10, 2014, 10:23:57 PM
On BBC radio ulster today Professor Tom Devine made a total arse out of Ruth Dudley Edwards,and in response to his aggressive attitude he explained that his tone softens according to the opposing intellect with whom he's debating ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyCake on September 10, 2014, 10:34:02 PM
More powers, me arse. Don't be fooled by fcukwit politicians. I'm always of the opinion that whatever a politician says, take the opposite meaning.

Unfortunately they'll do enough to make Scots fearful of independence and they'll vote no.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 10, 2014, 10:59:13 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on September 10, 2014, 10:23:57 PM
On BBC radio ulster today Professor Tom Devine made a total arse out of Ruth Dudley Edwards,and in response to his aggressive attitude he explained that his tone softens according to the opposing intellect with whom he's debating ;D

Whatever happens, some good has been done.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: under the bar on September 10, 2014, 11:08:16 PM
Expect to see a red alert anytime re an Isis or Al Qaida plot to attack Edinburgh or Glasgow!   Of course it will be foiled in the nick of time due to Scotland Yard's union-enhanced intelligence-sharing with Strathclyde!!   
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyCake on September 10, 2014, 11:40:39 PM
Quote from: under the bar on September 10, 2014, 11:08:16 PM
Expect to see a red alert anytime re an Isis or Al Qaida plot to attack Edinburgh or Glasgow!   Of course it will be foiled in the nick of time due to Scotland Yard's union-enhanced intelligence-sharing with Strathclyde!!   

I'll take that bet (or something similar).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 11, 2014, 09:35:48 AM
With the announcements from Standard Life, RBS and Lloyds in the last 24 hours, you wonder what price Cameron has paid/will pay for this "support", or maybe he's calling in a few favours.

As for additional powers to Scotland...what power has Gordon Broon to make this happen?  As I understand it there is no commitment to do this, all waffle and empty promises.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 09:37:06 AM
RBS, Standard Life all being lined up to say they'll move jobs out of Scotland to London, all the big shots are being fired now that its getting a bit too close for comfort for Cameron and Co.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: naka on September 11, 2014, 09:53:30 AM
actually think when the voting is counted too many are scared of the change
to go for yes

its like in the 6 counties ( a lot of my mates are nationalists with a small n ) when the voting comes for unity we will all be surprised at how many will vote for the status quo to remain
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: theskull1 on September 11, 2014, 09:54:40 AM
It just goes to show what happens when your getting too close to changing the status quo. As the saying goes ...feel the fear and do it anyway
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 11, 2014, 10:05:20 AM
I don't get this "fear" thing. It's not as if things are good at present!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 11, 2014, 10:13:03 AM
The element of the 'Devil you know' is strong. One thing this referendum has proven to me is that the 'patriotic' bonds holding the UK together have never been weaker. The Scots have always had a bit of an oxymoronic outook on their relationship with England especially. Even Flower of Scotland has elements of it

"Those Days are Past now, and in the past they must remain,
But we will still rise now, and be a nation again that stood against them,
Proud Edward's Army, and sent them homewards tae think again".

If the No vote wins, it will probably be out of 'fear' of being a standalone country. It won't be because the bonds of Britishness as so strong.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 11, 2014, 10:26:26 AM
If you propose change, it is easy for people to suggest all sorts of things will occur. In general, citizens understanding of the overall situation is limited, you only have to look at the trite sh|te spoken about in relation to Irish unity, and so they can't easily figure out the actual reality of the dire warnings, or indeed great promises.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 10:30:35 AM
Oh, did anyone see the 'close to tears' David Cameron giving his heartfelt speech in Scotland yesterday.
The only way that man would have been in tears was if he was pulling his pubes out with the hand he'd jammed in his pocket...
Sure wouldn't the Tories be better off without Scotland, almost guaranteed house of Commons majority and no Scottish basket case to pump funds into it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 11, 2014, 10:32:58 AM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 10:30:35 AM
Oh, did anyone see the 'close to tears' David Cameron giving his heartfelt speech in Scotland yesterday.
The only way that man would have been in tears was if he was pulling his pubes out with the hand he'd jammed in his pocket...
Sure wouldn't the Tories be better off without Scotland, almost guaranteed house of Commons majority and no Scottish basket case to pump funds into it.

He'll come to regret that effin' Tories line.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bcarrier on September 11, 2014, 10:38:50 AM
The timing of the Invictus Games looks suspect.

Some nonsense being spouted by both sides now.

I dont think the Scots have though through what type of country they want to be after independence or maybe the SNP dont want to say it. Could they be better off without the oversized banking sector and its contingent liabilities.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 11, 2014, 10:57:59 AM
Quote from: bcarrier on September 11, 2014, 10:38:50 AM
The timing of the Invictus Games looks suspect.

Some nonsense being spouted by both sides now.

I dont think the Scots have though through what type of country they want to be after independence or maybe the SNP dont want to say it. Could they be better off without the oversized banking sector and its contingent liabilities.

On the contrary I think the SNP have produced quite a detailed white paper on it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: andoireabu on September 11, 2014, 11:53:53 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buiXDbgnc4M (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buiXDbgnc4M)

short video on some of the nonsesne arguments being used for No
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on September 11, 2014, 12:02:38 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 09:37:06 AM
RBS, Standard Life all being lined up to say they'll move jobs out of Scotland to London, all the big shots are being fired now that its getting a bit too close for comfort for Cameron and Co.
Moving registered head offices (RBS anyway) to London, operations to remain in Edinburgh, Greenock etc. More scaremongering.

The BT campaigners have been utterly pathetic but it seems their scare tactics will come out on top. Shame really!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bcarrier on September 11, 2014, 02:25:33 PM
FT

Mr Salmond can tug on the emotions of his fellow countrymen but he has given few credible answers about the challenges – economic, social and international – which would face Scotland. His Panglossian pitch is that the Scots can have the best of all possible worlds: independence, the monarchy and the pound, and that a Scotland which retreats into a narrower nationalist identity will somehow be better equipped to prosper in a world of globalisation.

His argument contains glaring inconsistencies. A currency union demands a political union. The eurozone's travails show us as much. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, made clear again this week that political independence is incompatible with maintaining sterling as the currency of choice. Mr Salmond insists the English establishment is bluffing. This is no bluff. The currency uncertainty will blight every aspect of the Scottish economy, from commercial lending to mortgages. Without total clarity, every Scottish citizen is left exposed.

Mr Salmond claims that separation is the best guarantee of future prosperity. His calculations are based on much wishful thinking covering vital matters such as the future oil price and how much of the UK's debt would be assumed by the Scots. He presumes that it serves no one's interest to be unreasonable about the terms of divorce, but he underestimates the psychological shock. No one can predict the consequences.

Nor is it obvious why Scotland will gain early and automatic entry into the EU. Other European states with their own separatist movements – notably Spain – have little incentive to agree to a quick deal. The only certainty is uncertainty, at a high cost to Scotland and the UK. The shift of deposits and money out of Scotland this week is a harbinger.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b5c48254-376e-11e4-bd0a-00144feabdc0.html?segid=0100320#axzz3CwObyzTG
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 11, 2014, 02:37:27 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 09:37:06 AM
RBS, Standard Life all being lined up to say they'll move jobs out of Scotland to London, all the big shots are being fired now that its getting a bit too close for comfort for Cameron and Co.
RBS's main engine is Nat West which was 100% English before RBS bought it
Bank of Scotland bought Halifax aswell which had to be rescued by Lloyds - the Scottish banks went
nuts during the boom years  , not unlike our own

And they are far too big for Scotland to manage in a meltdown
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Bensars on September 11, 2014, 02:55:51 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 11, 2014, 02:37:27 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 09:37:06 AM
RBS, Standard Life all being lined up to say they'll move jobs out of Scotland to London, all the big shots are being fired now that its getting a bit too close for comfort for Cameron and Co.
RBS's main engine is Nat West which was 100% English before RBS bought it
Bank of Scotland bought Halifax aswell which had to be rescued by Lloyds - the Scottish banks went
nuts during the boom years  , not unlike our own

And they are far too big for Scotland to manage in a meltdown


Plenty of dirty tricks happening. The closer to the referendum the more desperate the measures.

QuoteSalmond accuses Treasury of 'leak'

Posted at 10:39


First Minister Alex Salmond has accused the Treasury of leaking details of an RBS notice to markets in breach of financial regulations.

Mr Salmond is writing a letter of complaint to the head of the civil service and the prime minister.

RBS has confirmed it has contingency plans to relocate its registered headquarters to London in the event of a Yes vote next Thursday.

But in a letter to staff, the bank's chief executive said he had no intention of moving operations or staff.

Quote'Market sensitive information'

Posted at 12:33


Alex Salmond, during his media conference address, told the BBC's Politicial Editor Nick Robinson that he hoped the BBC would "co-operate with the inevitable investigation" - into an alleged Treasury leak - of an RBS notice to relocate its registered headquarters to London in the event of a 'Yes' vote.

"Market sensitive information, and it's a basic rule, can't be released prior to the market announcement at 7 o'clock this morning," said Mr Salmond. "The RBS share price changed overnight. This is a matter of extraordinary gravity.

"I know the BBC will want to co-operate with the inevitable investigation by the Cabinet secretary into the briefing of this information, given that the briefing of information - even if we weren't in a campaign - the briefing of market sensitive information is as serious a matter as you can possibly get.

"Therefore, I know that the BBC, in its impartial role as public sector broadcaster, will give full co-operation to that investigation."


Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 11, 2014, 03:18:41 PM
It's all a bit frantic at the moment - the No camp is throwing everything they've got to stop the momentum of the Yes camp carrying through into next week. You'd wonder if they can keep up this pace though or will the scaremongering backfire with the electorate before the vote. 

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 11, 2014, 03:34:37 PM
It's like Kerry-Mayo now, except no replay allowed. Fifteen minutes to go and the 'Kerry-NO' have installed three Donaghies on the edge of the square in the shape of RBS, Lloyds and Clydesdale and they've each buried it to take a narrow lead. But the difference in this game is that you can only score that goal once. Mayo-YES have fifteen minutes to spring something. What K-N don't know is that the plan is to do nothing. They can't stop their dodgy back line of Cameron, Clegg and Darling from conceding a bucketful of OGs in the last few minutes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hereiam on September 11, 2014, 03:35:47 PM
Does anyone else think it would be a good idea if the BBC were to show Braveheart next Wednesday night the hell of it.  ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 11, 2014, 03:48:32 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 11, 2014, 03:35:47 PM
Does anyone else think it would be a good idea if the BBC were to show Braveheart next Wednesday night the hell of it.  ;D

You can be certain the BBC won't show it. Their coverage has been disgracefully one sided (not that I'm suggesting that Braveheart would add a bit of balance). Those of us in the North won't be surprised by this but regardless of the outcome it's opened a few eyes in Scotland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 11, 2014, 03:54:57 PM
Quote from: passedit on September 11, 2014, 03:48:32 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on September 11, 2014, 03:35:47 PM
Does anyone else think it would be a good idea if the BBC were to show Braveheart next Wednesday night the hell of it.  ;D

You can be certain the BBC won't show it. Their coverage has been disgracefully one sided (not that I'm suggesting that Braveheart would add a bit of balance). Those of us in the North won't be surprised by this but regardless of the outcome it's opened a few eyes in Scotland.

Been like that pretty much from the beginning:

http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8598-broadcasters-favouring-no-campaign-according-to-new-academic-study
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 11, 2014, 04:01:33 PM
Fairness is such an alien concept to the British ruling elite that they can't even fake an attempt at it. Our buckos at least try to feign it but I guess they're only amateurs in comparison.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 04:20:05 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 11, 2014, 04:01:33 PM
Fairness is such an alien concept to the British ruling elite that they can't even fake an attempt at it. Our buckos at least try to feign it but I guess they're only amateurs in comparison.

correct, every time I hear some gobshite on TV talking about the British sense of fair play and all that, there's a little bit of sick in my mouth as my stomach wretches.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 11, 2014, 04:41:38 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA&feature=youtu.be)

Labour's invasion today, from a non BBC perspective.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: haveaharp on September 11, 2014, 04:58:08 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 11, 2014, 04:20:05 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 11, 2014, 04:01:33 PM
Fairness is such an alien concept to the British ruling elite that they can't even fake an attempt at it. Our buckos at least try to feign it but I guess they're only amateurs in comparison.

correct, every time I hear some gobshite on TV talking about the British sense of fair play and all that, there's a little bit of sick in my mouth as my stomach wretches.

Didn't Big Ian himself say "i'd rather be British than be fair" or words to that effect
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Shamrock Shore on September 11, 2014, 05:05:11 PM
Can Scotland not be partitioned?

Worked so well in the past in other countries  :-\
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 11, 2014, 09:07:52 PM
Believe it or not there was an article in the Daily Telegraph (Sat week ago I think - bought it because of a Gary Neville interview with Dave Brailsford) about how the Shetlands (and/or Orkneys?) are very much in the No camp and the issue of these islands voting overwhelmingly No and the rest of Scotland (possibly) voting Yes could be a cause of considerable embarrassment for a newly Independent Scotland. Shitbag of a paper and all that it is, it was a good article about the Norse / Scandinavian influences.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 11, 2014, 09:16:55 PM
Somehow I couldn't see Cameron, Milliband and Clegg coming over here in a last ditch attempt if we were facing such a referendum. For Cameron in particular, I suppose there's the risk that his legacy could be the PM who lost Scotland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 11, 2014, 09:37:19 PM
More BBC lies

http://wingsoverscotland.com/out-in-the-open/ (http://wingsoverscotland.com/out-in-the-open/)

Quote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=enrdDaf3uss (https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=enrdDaf3uss)

Nick Robinson claims Alex Salmond "didn't answer" his question at a press conference earlier today. That is a brazen and quite spectacular lie. The First Minister gave a detailed and direct response which lasted for over three minutes BEFORE raising the matter of the Treasury link. You can see that response here.http://wingsoverscotland.com/handed-back-on-a-plate/ (http://wingsoverscotland.com/handed-back-on-a-plate/)

Robinson asked for a specific answer on RBS and a more general one on scaremongering by business chiefs. Salmond explained the RBS situation, referring to Corporation Tax and to the letter sent by RBS to employees assuring them that it had no intention of removing any operations or jobs. He dealt with the general scaremongering issue by pointing out that such warnings were repeats of ones made and responded to months ago.

So we'd rather like to know why Nick Robinson told viewers of the 6 O'Clock News that Salmond "didn't answer", when anyone can see for themselves that he answered both parts of Robinson's question at considerable length. Robinson might not have LIKED the answers – we must assume he didn't – but to claim that no answer was given is a mindboggling reversal of the plainly visible facts.

Robinson rudely harassed and heckled Salmond after his answer. He's now lied about it on national television. The BBC's open contempt for its legal duty of impartiality is no longer acceptable. It's the people of Scotland who will now be demanding answers.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ONeill on September 11, 2014, 09:51:11 PM
Fairly confident it'll be a no vote. Some Yessers will crap them at the last minute.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: macdanger2 on September 11, 2014, 10:02:21 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 11, 2014, 09:07:52 PM
Believe it or not there was an article in the Daily Telegraph (Sat week ago I think - bought it because of a Gary Neville interview with Dave Brailsford) about how the Shetlands (and/or Orkneys?) are very much in the No camp and the issue of these islands voting overwhelmingly No and the rest of Scotland (possibly) voting Yes could be a cause of considerable embarrassment for a newly Independent Scotland. Shitbag of a paper and all that it is, it was a good article about the Norse / Scandinavian influences.

I read somewhere that the islanders were actually hoping for more devolution to them from an independent Scotland
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: maddog on September 11, 2014, 10:07:27 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 11, 2014, 10:02:21 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 11, 2014, 09:07:52 PM
Believe it or not there was an article in the Daily Telegraph (Sat week ago I think - bought it because of a Gary Neville interview with Dave Brailsford) about how the Shetlands (and/or Orkneys?) are very much in the No camp and the issue of these islands voting overwhelmingly No and the rest of Scotland (possibly) voting Yes could be a cause of considerable embarrassment for a newly Independent Scotland. Shitbag of a paper and all that it is, it was a good article about the Norse / Scandinavian influences.

I read somewhere that the islanders were actually hoping for more devolution to them from an independent Scotland


From the few bits I have seen the islanders see centralisation in Edinburgh as not much different from London i.e a world apart from their lives. They will be looking for greater local powers for themselves but could only see them getting that with a "yes".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: mylestheslasher on September 11, 2014, 10:31:52 PM
What an opportunity for Scotland but I fear they are going to blow it and allow the English to peddle enough fear to make the difference. It seems that the westminister boys are looking for favours from the BBC and the usual media suspects to scare the Scots to vote No. I hope on the day they will vote with their hearts and tell the English where to stick their union.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: macdanger2 on September 11, 2014, 10:36:36 PM
It's gas hearing the yes side talking about the bond between England and Scotland......poor aul Wales is like the ugly sister
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 11, 2014, 11:28:21 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on September 11, 2014, 09:16:55 PM
Somehow I couldn't see Cameron, Milliband and Clegg coming over here in a last ditch attempt if we were facing such a referendum. For Cameron in particular, I suppose there's the risk that his legacy could be the PM who lost Scotland.

Cameron, maybe. He's a Tory afterall.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hereiam on September 11, 2014, 11:36:07 PM
Heard ole Wuile on the radio earlier. Of course he blamed the ra for the yes camp gaining ground. I think they need to let this man speak more to the british public. What harm could it do.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: orangeman on September 11, 2014, 11:39:39 PM
Latest poll no 52 yes 48 -about  2 dozen people have changed their mind.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RealSpiritof98 on September 11, 2014, 11:53:48 PM
All elections are dirty wars, but the BBC are taking the biscuit. Their starting to give FOX news a run for their money.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxRFN8ZCIAAHxd3.jpg:large)

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 12, 2014, 01:08:13 AM
I must say that's very credible. I wouldn't pass any remarks about why it's unattributed.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 12, 2014, 02:18:19 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 11, 2014, 10:36:36 PM
It's gas hearing the yes side talking about the bond between England and Scotland......poor aul Wales is like the ugly sister

What about Norn Iron ! We exist !!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 12, 2014, 08:53:39 AM
I think there is big danger for norn Irn in that no matter what way the Scottish vote goes there is going to be more of a focus on regionalism within the UK. London could start asking to keep more of the money it generates.  NI is not able to fund itself. Could get quite messy. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 12, 2014, 10:14:47 AM
Quote from: dec on September 12, 2014, 02:18:19 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 11, 2014, 10:36:36 PM
It's gas hearing the yes side talking about the bond between England and Scotland......poor aul Wales is like the ugly sister

What about Norn Iron ! We exist !!

Wales is the ugly sister, quiet, but good at singing. NI is the mad sister in the attic.

QuoteI think there is big danger for norn Irn in that no matter what way the Scottish vote goes there is going to be more of a focus on regionalism within the UK. London could start asking to keep more of the money it generates.  NI is not able to fund itself. Could get quite messy.

More explicit accounting seems likely to result. Some of NIs accounts might not look well in daylight.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: haranguerer on September 12, 2014, 10:16:27 AM
If that situation were to arise (but I find it extremely unlikely), then the natural progression would be to seek support from wherever possible, that being Dublin.

The No campaign really aren't covering themselves in glory. They'll win comfortably enough in the end I imagine, but its been a shambolic campaign for them which has resulted in concessions far greater than probably would have been necessary if they had deigned to take the scots seriously from the start.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 12, 2014, 10:32:06 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 12, 2014, 08:53:39 AM
I think there is big danger for norn Irn in that no matter what way the Scottish vote goes there is going to be more of a focus on regionalism within the UK. London could start asking to keep more of the money it generates.  NI is not able to fund itself. Could get quite messy.

They said that about Scotland once upon a time as well but hey ho when the figures were actually put under the spotlight it turned out to be untrue. Fact is we don't actually know the figures regarding the extent of the deficient in the northern economy. Yes we know how much it gets under Barnett but we don't know how much is raised in local taxes and sent to London.

Like everything else in 'Northern Ireland', the economy here is an artificial construct with almost everything skewed towards Britain at the expense of our natural hinterland in the 26 counties. This has happened for various historical reasons but there is no reason not to suppose than once the economy is rebalanced, the north couldn't in time regain it's former position as an economic power house of the country. The six counties has all the ingredients required for that to happen in terms of modern infrastructure and a young, educated and skilled workforce. Like the Scots the 6 counties have nothing to fear from standing on their own two feet in any new settlement cut from London's apron.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 12, 2014, 10:44:34 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 12, 2014, 10:32:06 AM
Like everything else in 'Northern Ireland', the economy here is an artificial construct with almost everything skewed towards Britain at the expense of our natural hinterland in the 26 counties. This has happened for various historical reasons but there is no reason not to suppose than once the economy is rebalanced, the north couldn't in time regain it's former position as an economic power house of the country. The six counties has all the ingredients required for that to happen in terms of modern infrastructure and a young, educated and skilled workforce. Like the Scots the 6 counties have nothing to fear from standing on their own two feet in any new settlement cut from London's apron.

The problem, and Scotland's problem, is how do you get from here to there? Presently you have a skewed model which depresses production in NI in favour of Britain, which then sends some money. To improve the skew you have to cut the link, but people will not tolerate the loss of the handouts in the meantime.

The UK is like smoking. The smoking does the smoker no good in the long term, but in the short term stopping causes them to feel worse.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 12, 2014, 11:44:21 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 12, 2014, 10:14:47 AM
Quote from: dec on September 12, 2014, 02:18:19 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 11, 2014, 10:36:36 PM
It's gas hearing the yes side talking about the bond between England and Scotland......poor aul Wales is like the ugly sister

What about Norn Iron ! We exist !!

Wales is the ugly sister, quiet, but good at singing. NI is the mad sister in the attic.

QuoteI think there is big danger for norn Irn in that no matter what way the Scottish vote goes there is going to be more of a focus on regionalism within the UK. London could start asking to keep more of the money it generates.  NI is not able to fund itself. Could get quite messy.

More explicit accounting seems likely to result. Some of NIs accounts might not look well in daylight.
The other problem is that  the Queen, Protestantism and Armed forces/Somme ideology of the unionists is well past its sell by date and resonates with fewer and fewer people in Britain.  It is all over murals in the North but it is so out of touch. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ONeill on September 15, 2014, 12:32:10 AM
That was fun - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmAKnchI3ek
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 15, 2014, 08:58:04 AM
One thing that has struck me about this whole issue is that the "establishment", "powers that be" and "vested interests" (which appear to include nearly all mainstream media outlets) appear to be shit scared, not that Scottish people will vote for independence per se, but that people in general will realise that you can change things through engagement in the political process.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 15, 2014, 09:53:25 AM
Quote from: ONeill on September 15, 2014, 12:32:10 AM
That was fun - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmAKnchI3ek
That is one magnificent Glasgae accent.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 15, 2014, 09:53:42 AM
Plus ça change...

(http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/ehiseve3656.jpg?w=1200)

(http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/home-rule-2.jpg?w=1200)

(http://brianmlucey.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/donegallplacebelfasthomerule.jpg?w=1024&h=644)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 15, 2014, 07:24:17 PM
I wonder if the voters give the "wrong" answer will they be asked to vote again.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: screenexile on September 15, 2014, 07:48:55 PM
Will "themmuns" be allowed to put up Scottish flags around the 12th if they get a 'YES' vote? Surely they shouldn't be celebrating the Nation that turned its back on the Union. . .

From a total outsider I've taken a bit of a passing interest and it looks like the Yes campaign have picked up serious momentum this last few weeks. If the No campaign win I think it'll be by the skin of their teeth and it will be their own fault for not putting the resource behind their campaign. There was there probably little will among the majority to change the status quo until the apathy Westminster showed to the campaign until it was too late.

Allied to that the Yes campaign have had some very passionate spokespeople and canvassers who have really made it a point of highlighting what they think can be achieved with Independence. Not least your man above who's confidence about what will happen if Independence is gained is astounding.

I'm looking forward to seeing how it pans out and hopefully they get their independence and everything goes well for them!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 15, 2014, 08:24:42 PM
I have a feeling the Yes campaign will sneak it. Bet Cameron's sorry he didn't let Salmond have Devo Max on the ballot paper... and Salmond delighted that he was denied this.

Some rumours that Murdoch will come out in support of Yes. Would be very interesting if that happened.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyCake on September 15, 2014, 08:52:52 PM
I said all along it would be No. This latest scaremongering confirms it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 15, 2014, 09:47:47 PM
Quote from: BennyCake on September 15, 2014, 08:52:52 PM
I said all along it would be No. This latest scaremongering confirms it.

As much as the yes campaign have done a pretty decent job I still think most Scots with vote for the status quo and No will win out
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on September 15, 2014, 10:26:45 PM
I think Yes will sneak it but it will be tight. If you look at the last Scottish elections the SNP were trailing until about 1 month before the election then surged to gain an outright majority that was meant to be impossible under the election system for the Scottish parliment. They seem to be timing their surge exactly once again. There strongest card is the NO camp who have a basic argument that Scots are too stupid to run an economy. If anything was guaranteed to annoy voters it is telling them they are stupid
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Kidder81 on September 15, 2014, 10:58:53 PM
It isn't a vote for SNP
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 15, 2014, 11:06:54 PM
I'd say no by a clear 4-5%. I put a few quid on this, but if I lose my money it will be worth it just to see the consternation!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 15, 2014, 11:09:11 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on September 15, 2014, 08:24:42 PM
I have a feeling the Yes campaign will sneak it. Bet Cameron's sorry he didn't let Salmond have Devo Max on the ballot paper... and Salmond delighted that he was denied this.

Some rumours that Murdoch will come out in support of Yes. Would be very interesting if that happened.

I've been wondering about Murdoch myself. Seems to have been a bit quiet on this one.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: orangeman on September 16, 2014, 01:04:09 AM
No 1-4 yes 3-1

Bookies don't often get it wrong.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 16, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
Speculation was Murdoch would support it but after his 'tour' around Scotland he seems to have changed his mind - he's since been Tweeting stuff about SNP welfare giveaways, commies and Greens. Of course that could be a ploy as well as he maybe knows he could do Salmond more harm by supporting him than not.

My head still says No will eke it out in the end. As an anecdotal observer it seems that Yes gain most momentum at weekends but fall off again during the week as the daily papers and media hit them with a relentless stream of scaremongering. Yes would need to be clearly ahead by about 5% to counter that come Thursday as there'll be all sorts of doomsday predictions between now and then. I don't think they're that far ahead yet even though they're clearly on the side of the angels.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 16, 2014, 10:10:27 AM
I will say unfortunately NO will romp it, over 60%.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 16, 2014, 10:14:14 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxm1jqaIEAIRmh2.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 16, 2014, 10:20:37 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 16, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
My head still says No will eke it out in the end. As an anecdotal observer it seems that Yes gain most momentum at weekends but fall off again during the week as the daily papers and media hit them with a relentless stream of scaremongering. Yes would need to be clearly ahead by about 5% to counter that come Thursday as there'll be all sorts of doomsday predictions between now and then. I don't think they're that far ahead yet even though they're clearly on the side of the angels.

In Quebec the "Oui" was 54% in the polls but couldn't make it in the end. In this case the polls are 50/50 at best.

As for "The Vow" that is worth less than the 55p it costs to buy the Daily Unionist Record,  the UK has no proper constitution and the government in London will do what it likes  Not that everything there isn't also some puff on the independence side, but the Scottish people can at least vote for what they want there.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 16, 2014, 10:43:24 AM
http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/09/12/backtrack-on-yes-vote-as-buckfast-threatens-to-pull-distributation-in-scotland/ (http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/09/12/backtrack-on-yes-vote-as-buckfast-threatens-to-pull-distributation-in-scotland/)

(http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/buckfast-girl-image-3-174259121.jpg)

PRO-INDEPENDENCE voters were thrown into turmoil this morning after tonic wine makers, Buckfast, announced it would be pulling its Scottish distribution if there was a 'yes vote' majority in next week's referendum.
Buckfast or Buckie, a fortified wine licensed from Buckfast Abbey in British ruled Devon, is one of the most sought after drinks in the highland state, with over 20 billion bottles sold every week.
A spokesperson for the company said it would discontinue its current distribution of the popular beverage due to financial reasons and a 'conflict of interest' with the British Parliament.
"We cannot see a future for Buckfast in an Independent Scotland," said CEO Brent Traynor, who coincidentally met with David Cameron yesterday afternoon. "Scotland will not be able to afford our product if they vote yes, so we have no other option but to cease trading there".
Since the devastating news, thousands of angry protesters have taken to the streets in every major Scottish town and city to voice their concerns over the move.
"I cannae vote yes if ders ne bucky," voiced one man, who was wearing an unrecognisable Scottish football jersey. "You'd wanna be aff yer heid to vote after tha' news. Ah dinnae how ye Irish bouys would feel about losing Guinness, but this is a huge blow for us ere and the aye vote".
Meanwhile in Edinburgh, riot Police are currently dealing with hundreds of youths 'panic looting' local shops and warehouses for the tonic wine.
"This is the British government's doing," said first minister Alex Salmond. "David Cameron struck a deal with Buckfast knowing the implications it would cause. This is an act of war and we are going to respond accordingly".
Following the first minister's statement, Scottish band 'The Proclaimers' announced they would be cancelling their 2015 UK tour, with absolute no reaction whatsoever.

;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 16, 2014, 11:11:58 AM
Free milk! Truly Thatcherism is dead. Vote NAE!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 16, 2014, 11:40:16 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 16, 2014, 10:20:37 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 16, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
My head still says No will eke it out in the end. As an anecdotal observer it seems that Yes gain most momentum at weekends but fall off again during the week as the daily papers and media hit them with a relentless stream of scaremongering. Yes would need to be clearly ahead by about 5% to counter that come Thursday as there'll be all sorts of doomsday predictions between now and then. I don't think they're that far ahead yet even though they're clearly on the side of the angels.

In Quebec the "Oui" was 54% in the polls but couldn't make it in the end. In this case the polls are 50/50 at best.

As for "The Vow" that is worth less than the 55p it costs to buy the Daily Unionist Record,  the UK has no proper constitution and the government in London will do what it likes  Not that everything there isn't also some puff on the independence side, but the Scottish people can at least vote for what they want there.

My head says the Scots will bottle it as well but the sheer panic in the No camp suggests that they're further ahead than the polls suggest. Rumours that Salmond's own polls are consistently 60% yes and the high number of new voter registrations are not being mainsteam polled. (calling electoral register and landlines only). Projections of a very high turnout would also point to change rather than status quo. Hope they do it but reckon they'll just fall short. Then again many stranger things have happened.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 16, 2014, 12:07:50 PM
Be great if they do it.
Cmon Scots - time to join the rest of the civilised world.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 16, 2014, 12:29:20 PM
If the vote is no, feel free to send this link to any of your scottish mates on friday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1tJJO_pVvQ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1tJJO_pVvQ)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thejuice on September 16, 2014, 12:52:33 PM
I know a few 'Yes' men who are campaigning quite a bit.

The whole thing has taken a nasty tone lately especially after the whole nick Robinson thing. a bit of tit for tat vandalism has been going on and a bit of nasty verbals.

They are hopeful but my feeling the 'No' side will win. Too much of a perceived risk but you never know.

One way or another the UK will be a different place on Friday.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 16, 2014, 01:02:28 PM
Is it not incredible that Scotland got an independence referendum before Ireland?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Tony Baloney on September 16, 2014, 01:03:03 PM
Quote from: passedit on September 16, 2014, 11:40:16 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 16, 2014, 10:20:37 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 16, 2014, 09:51:05 AM
My head still says No will eke it out in the end. As an anecdotal observer it seems that Yes gain most momentum at weekends but fall off again during the week as the daily papers and media hit them with a relentless stream of scaremongering. Yes would need to be clearly ahead by about 5% to counter that come Thursday as there'll be all sorts of doomsday predictions between now and then. I don't think they're that far ahead yet even though they're clearly on the side of the angels.

In Quebec the "Oui" was 54% in the polls but couldn't make it in the end. In this case the polls are 50/50 at best.

As for "The Vow" that is worth less than the 55p it costs to buy the Daily Unionist Record,  the UK has no proper constitution and the government in London will do what it likes  Not that everything there isn't also some puff on the independence side, but the Scottish people can at least vote for what they want there.

My head says the Scots will bottle it as well but the sheer panic in the No camp suggests that they're further ahead than the polls suggest. Rumours that Salmond's own polls are consistently 60% yes and the high number of new voter registrations are not being mainsteam polled. (calling electoral register and landlines only). Projections of a very high turnout would also point to change rather than status quo. Hope they do it but reckon they'll just fall short. Then again many stranger things have happened.
Would agree with you and Ulick. Those with a few quid in their pocket won't want to rock the boat and I think risk aversion is human nature for most people, therefore the "maybes" are likely to tick "naw".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 16, 2014, 01:14:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 16, 2014, 01:02:28 PM
Is it not incredible that Scotland got an independence referendum before Ireland?

The SNP provide better leadership than any in Ireland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omagh_gael on September 16, 2014, 02:57:00 PM
Listening to the radio this morning and they had an interesting debate on the wording on the referendum ballot paper. It will ask 'Do you want an independent Scotland?' The debate centered on the psychology of choosing 'yes.' Basically the 'Yes' camp have an advantage in that it is easier to convert people to say 'yes' as opposed to 'no.' People tend to choose the positive answer more often than thd negative and basically Cameron et al should have insisted the ballot paper said 'Do you want to remain apart of the United Kingdom?'
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 16, 2014, 02:59:15 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on September 16, 2014, 02:57:00 PM
Listening to the radio this morning and they had an interesting debate on the wording on the referendum ballot paper. It will ask 'Do you want an independent Scotland?' The debate centered on the psychology of choosing 'yes.' Basically the 'Yes' camp have an advantage in that it is easier to convert people to say 'yes' as opposed to 'no.' People tend to choose the positive answer more often than thd negative and basically Cameron et al should have insisted the ballot paper said 'Do you want to remain apart of the United Kingdom?'

The No campaign have definitely missed a trick by not emphasising words like 'separatism' or 'secession'. 'Independence' has a much more noble ring to it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 16, 2014, 03:27:38 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 16, 2014, 01:02:28 PM
Is it not incredible that Scotland got an independence referendum before Ireland?
As about 80% of Ireland is already Independent.....  answer  to your question is No.
The GFA covers the 6 Cos having a Referendum to either join in an Independent All Ireland or stay with the ( present) UK.
If the Scots jump ship ( please God they will) wonder what will the remnants of the "UK of GB and NI"  be called?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 16, 2014, 03:41:24 PM
PJ O'Rourke on Scottish independence

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/13/up-to-a-point-a-free-scotland-would-be-a-hilarious-disaster.html

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 16, 2014, 04:19:07 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on September 16, 2014, 02:57:00 PM
Listening to the radio this morning and they had an interesting debate on the wording on the referendum ballot paper. It will ask 'Do you want an independent Scotland?' The debate centered on the psychology of choosing 'yes.' Basically the 'Yes' camp have an advantage in that it is easier to convert people to say 'yes' as opposed to 'no.' People tend to choose the positive answer more often than thd negative and basically Cameron et al should have insisted the ballot paper said 'Do you want to remain apart of the United Kingdom?'

Scottish government got to set the question wording, UK government got to ensure 'Devo Max' wasn't an option.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 16, 2014, 04:34:28 PM
It's maybe hard for we non-Scots to assess the emotional tug of allegiance either to Scotland or the UK but I have to say if I were an undecided voter I would have been concerned by the blind panic and sudden series of promises coming from the No camp at this late stage.  If Devo Max was a non-starter up until 2 weeks ago how come Devo Nearly Max is so easily thrown into the mix now.  Would you really trust any of them?  Self interest springs to mind...if Scotland votes "Yes" can Cameron really survive being the PM who presided over the break up of the UK and it would also confirm Miliband as being unelectable and the Labour party being in crisis...step forward Boris!?!?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: rrhf on September 16, 2014, 05:36:53 PM
How Cameron hasnt declared war on Somebody in the last month Ill never know.  Has the troops issue hasnt been capitalised on to any great extent. 
They needed business argument to win this one.  I expect them to do it because they have every corporation in the world bullying the sovereignty of the Scots.
People will vote with the economic uncertainty.  The Scots will pass up on their greatest chance because of multi national corporations and the thinly veiled threats.  The commonwealth games etc in Glasgow was very interesting this year.
If they vote to stay part of the union then they might as well join up in sports etc for once and for all.  Scotland as a nation will be a laughing stock. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: tiempo on September 16, 2014, 06:14:14 PM
Quote from: rrhf on September 16, 2014, 05:36:53 PM
How Cameron hasnt declared war on Somebody in the last month Ill never know.  Has the troops issue hasnt been capitalised on to any great extent. 
They needed business argument to win this one.  I expect them to do it because they have every corporation in the world bullying the sovereignty of the Scots.
People will vote with the economic uncertainty.  The Scots will pass up on their greatest chance because of multi national corporations and the thinly veiled threats.  The commonwealth games etc in Glasgow was very interesting this year.
If they vote to stay part of the union then they might as well join up in sports etc for once and for all.  Scotland as a nation will be a laughing stock.

Her Majesty's wars this last 10 years have been tenuous at best, in reality the Iraq invasion was illegal, the meddling in foreign affairs and the Whitehall position on Palestine are odious. Cameron can't afford to give the SNP the ammo of "your sending our boys off again to the frontlines" hence last week when Obama needed a few troops for his excursion into Iraq/Syria he had to defer to the Aussies.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 16, 2014, 06:18:06 PM
Quote from: omagh_gael on September 16, 2014, 02:57:00 PM
Listening to the radio this morning and they had an interesting debate on the wording on the referendum ballot paper. It will ask 'Do you want an independent Scotland?' The debate centered on the psychology of choosing 'yes.' Basically the 'Yes' camp have an advantage in that it is easier to convert people to say 'yes' as opposed to 'no.' People tend to choose the positive answer more often than thd negative and basically Cameron et al should have insisted the ballot paper said 'Do you want to remain apart of the United Kingdom?'

Have you ever met a unionist?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 16, 2014, 09:37:30 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 16, 2014, 01:14:23 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 16, 2014, 01:02:28 PM
Is it not incredible that Scotland got an independence referendum before Ireland?

The SNP provide better leadership than any in Ireland.
Less Sectarian shite to deal with.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 16, 2014, 09:43:01 PM
Jesus Salmond is a shrewd operator, so smooth after Gordon Brown mumbled his way through interview with Dimbleby (BBC1 now).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 16, 2014, 09:43:11 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAewTVmkAU&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAewTVmkAU&feature=youtu.be)

This is a real ad shown in Scotland from the 'No' campaign.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ranch on September 16, 2014, 10:07:55 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 16, 2014, 09:43:01 PM
Jesus Salmond is a shrewd operator, so smooth after Gordon Brown mumbled his way through interview with Dimbleby (BBC1 now).
Best politician on these islands by far.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LCohen on September 16, 2014, 10:14:01 PM
The meaning really is in the mind of the listener.

I thought Salmond was terrible there. He is good in front of a crowd but poor when faced with a serous interviewer. You could see Dimbleby holding back as he can't press too much (The bbc under of plenty of scutiny here).

The references to Adam Smith are becoming increasingly laughable
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 16, 2014, 10:35:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 16, 2014, 09:43:11 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAewTVmkAU&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAewTVmkAU&feature=youtu.be)

This is a real ad shown in Scotland from the 'No' campaign.

Fixed the link. I saw it and it reminded me of . . . well, it reminded someone else too:

(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bv-80vPCQAARVls.png)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 16, 2014, 10:38:21 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 16, 2014, 10:35:48 PM
Quote from: muppet on September 16, 2014, 09:43:11 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAewTVmkAU&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLAewTVmkAU&feature=youtu.be)

This is a real ad shown in Scotland from the 'No' campaign.

Fixed the link. I saw it and it reminded me of . . . well, it reminded someone else too:

(http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bv-80vPCQAARVls.png)

Apologies, fixed it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 16, 2014, 10:43:59 PM
Baffled to see how you can possibly think that, especially in comparison to Brown - a fine orator himself, but the panic he (tonight) & the No camp in general are transmitting is palpable. Then again it is all about opinions & there's going to be some heated ones tomorrow.

I personally didn't really have a preference for Yes or No, I have been fascinated by the whole episode but would be coming down as a Yes voter if I had a vote (and that is setting aside the Irish Nationalists attitude that is probably a bit screw the UK, hope it implodes & NI might stumble into a similar position).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 07:29:14 AM
No 60%+ - no idea why the no camp is panicking!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 17, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
Eh? Simple majority required.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 07:58:52 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 17, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
Eh? Simple majority required.

Good man benny - 60%+ No was my prediction.  ;)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 17, 2014, 08:53:35 AM
Monbiot is an "interesting" character.  I as often disagree as agree with him but this is a good piece on the role of the mainstream media in the IndyRef campaign:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/media-shafted-people-scotland-journalists

How the media shafted the people of Scotland

Perhaps the most arresting fact about the Scottish referendum is this: that there is no newspaper – local, regional or national, English or Scottish – that supports independence except the Sunday Herald. The Scots who will vote yes have been almost without representation in the media.

There is nothing unusual about this. Change in any direction, except further over the brink of market fundamentalism and planetary destruction, requires the defiance of almost the entire battery of salaried opinion. What distinguishes the independence campaign is that it has continued to prosper despite this assault.

In the coverage of the referendum we see most of the pathologies of the corporate media. Here, for instance, you will find the unfounded generalisations with which less enlightened souls are characterised. In the Spectator, Simon Heffer maintains that: "addicted to welfare ... Scots embraced the something for nothing society", objecting to the poll tax "because many of them felt that paying taxes ought to be the responsibility of someone else".

Here is the condescension with which the dominant classes have always treated those they regard as inferior: their serfs, the poor, the Irish, Africans, anyone with whom they disagree. "What spoilt, selfish, childlike fools those Scots are ... They simply don't have a clue how lucky they are," sneered Melanie Reid in the Times. Here is the chronic inability to distinguish between a cause and a person: the referendum is widely portrayed as a vote about Alex Salmond, who is then monstered beyond recognition (a Telegraph editorial compared him to Robert Mugabe).

The problem with the media is exemplified by Dominic Lawson's column for the Daily Mail last week. He began with Scotland, comparing the "threat" of independence with that presented by Hitler (the article was helpfully illustrated with a picture of the Führer – unaccompanied, in this case, by the Mail's former proprietor). Then he turned to the momentous issue of how he almost wrote something inaccurate about David Attenborough, which was narrowly averted because "as it happens, last weekend we had staying with us another of the BBC's great figures, its world affairs editor John Simpson", who happily corrected Lawson's mistake. This was just as well because "the next day I went to the Royal Albert Hall as one of a small number of guests invited by the Proms director for that night's performance. And who should I see as soon as I entered the little room set aside for our group's pre-concert drinks? Sir David Attenborough."

Those who are supposed to hold power to account live in a rarefied, self-referential world of power, circulating among people as exalted as themselves, the "small number of guests" who receive the most charming invitations. That a senior journalist at the BBC should be the house guest of a columnist for the Daily Mail surprises me not one iota.

In June the BBC's economics editor, Robert Peston, complained that BBC news "is completely obsessed by the agenda set by newspapers ... If we think the Mail and Telegraph will lead with this, we should. It's part of the culture." This might help to explain why the BBC has attracted so many complaints of bias in favour of the no campaign.

Living within their tiny circle of light, most senior journalists seem unable to comprehend a desire for change. If they notice it at all, they perceive it as a mortal threat, comparable perhaps to Hitler. They know as little of the lives of the 64 million inhabiting the outer darkness as they do of the Andaman islanders. Yet, lecturing the poor from under the wisteria, they claim to speak for the nation.

As John Harris reports in the Guardian, both north and south of the border "politics as usual suddenly seems so lost as to look completely absurd". But to those within the circle, politics still begins and ends in Westminster. The opinions of no one beyond the gilded thousand with whom they associate is worthy of notice. Throughout the years I've spent working with protest movements and trying to bring neglected issues to light, one consistent theme has emerged: with a few notable exceptions, journalists are always among the last to twig that things have changed. It's no wonder that the Scottish opinion polls took them by surprise.

One of the roles of the Guardian, which has no proprietor, is to represent the unrepresented – and it often does so to great effect. On Scottish independence I believe we have fallen short. Our leader on Saturday used the frames constructed by the rest of the press, inflating a couple of incidents into a "habit" by yes campaigners of "attacking the messenger and ignoring the message", judging the long-term future of the nation by current SNP policy, confusing self-determination with nationalism.

If Westminster is locked into a paralysing neoliberal consensus it is partly because the corporate media, owned and staffed by its beneficiaries, demands it. Any party that challenges this worldview is ruthlessly disciplined. Any party that more noisily promotes corporate power is lauded and championed. Ukip, though it claims to be kicking against the establishment, owes much of its success to the corporate press.

For a moment, Rupert Murdoch appeared ready to offer one of his Faustian bargains to the Scottish National party: my papers for your soul. That offer now seems to have been withdrawn, as he has decided that Salmond's SNP is "not talking about independence, but more welfarism, expensive greenery, etc and passing sovereignty to Brussels" and that it "must change course to prosper if he wins". It's not an observation, it's a warning: if you win independence and pursue this agenda, my newspapers will destroy you.

Despite the rise of social media, the established media continues to define the scope of representative politics in Britain, to shape political demands and to punish and erase those who resist. It is one chamber of the corrupt heart of Britain, pumping fear, misinformation and hatred around the body politic.

That so many Scots, lambasted from all quarters as fools, frauds and ingrates, have refused to be bullied is itself a political triumph. If they vote for independence, they will do so in defiance not only of the Westminster consensus but also of its enforcers: the detached, complacent people who claim to speak on their behalf.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 17, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 07:58:52 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 17, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
Eh? Simple majority required.

Good man benny - 60%+ No was my prediction.  ;)

The higher the turnout the more chance yes has. More panic from the tools of No.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxsBn-wCAAI1RUM.jpg)

The Mirror of all papers.

There appears to a typo there, Fighting Dictators should say Clearing Highlands.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:52:09 AM
Apparently there's 300k new voters registered since the summer and Yes are planning all sorts of things to get the vote out in difficult (underprivileged) areas such as marches to polling stations with bagpipes and the like. Turnout in Scotland was around 50% at the last election so you'd have to think that if it's substantially more particularly in working class areas it would favour Yes?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 17, 2014, 09:55:21 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:52:09 AM
Apparently there's 300k new voters registered since the summer and Yes are planning all sorts of things to get the vote out in difficult (underprivileged) areas such as marches to polling stations with bagpipes and the like. Turnout in Scotland was around 50% at the last election so you'd have to think that if it's substantially more particularly in working class areas it would favour Yes?

Big Scot I work with who is firmly in the No camp reckons after talking to friends in Scotland over the weekend that the Yes vote is far bigger than some of the polls suggest and will possibly go through.

A lot of young Scots disenfranchised with their lot want change one way or the other he reckons!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 17, 2014, 10:05:22 AM
Quote from: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:52:09 AM
Apparently there's 300k new voters registered since the summer and Yes are planning all sorts of things to get the vote out in difficult (underprivileged) areas such as marches to polling stations with bagpipes and the like. Turnout in Scotland was around 50% at the last election so you'd have to think that if it's substantially more particularly in working class areas it would favour Yes?

That's why we have to take the polls with at least a small pinch of salt as the newly registered voters have not been polled and there could be a significant margin of error.  The Scots-Irish tend to be solid Labour voters and therefore in the "No" camp but it seems Scots-Asian voters favour a "Yes" outcome.

Interesting is that the raft of new powers proposed by the No camp have not been agreed by the the 3 parties and that Gordon Brown could not give a long term tax commitment on the BBC and also the director of the No campaign could not give a commitment that the Barnett formula could be writ in stone for Scotland on the radio this morning.  It seems to me that the "Westminster Elite" arriving in Scotland with a bag of new powers could reinforce in voters minds who really wields power in Scotland and where that power sits.  That has been a mainstay of the Yes campaign.

I still think No will win out in the region of 54%-46% but the divil inside me is hoping fro a Yes win just to see the almighty kerfuffle that would ensue over the weekend!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 17, 2014, 10:49:31 AM
Quote from: passedit on September 17, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 07:58:52 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 17, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
Eh? Simple majority required.

Good man benny - 60%+ No was my prediction.  ;)

The higher the turnout the more chance yes has. More panic from the tools of No.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxsBn-wCAAI1RUM.jpg)

The Mirror of all papers.

There appears to a typo there, Fighting Dictators should say Clearing Highlands.

No mention of Culloden either
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 17, 2014, 11:04:09 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2014, 10:49:31 AM
Quote from: passedit on September 17, 2014, 08:53:51 AM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 07:58:52 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 17, 2014, 07:56:16 AM
Eh? Simple majority required.

Good man benny - 60%+ No was my prediction.  ;)

The higher the turnout the more chance yes has. More panic from the tools of No.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxsBn-wCAAI1RUM.jpg)

The Mirror of all papers.

There appears to a typo there, Fighting Dictators should say Clearing Highlands.

No mention of Culloden either

Did they consider all meanings of the words 'We celebrate in this historic pullout'?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Denn Forever on September 17, 2014, 11:07:14 AM
What is the name of the stone that symbolised the power of The King of Scotland that was removed?  Would it be given back?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 17, 2014, 11:09:27 AM
Quote from: Denn Forever on September 17, 2014, 11:07:14 AM
What is the name of the stone that symbolised the power of The King of Scotland that was removed?  Would it be given back?

The Stone of Scone. It was returned to Scotland in 1996 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stone_of_Scone#Return_to_Scotland).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 17, 2014, 12:10:30 PM
The guff about saving the NHS is really over the top giving the Tories are slowly flogging off big chunks of it to the private sector.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Bord na Mona man on September 17, 2014, 12:19:20 PM
What side of the voters are motivated to get out and vote?
I'd guess the Yes ones are the more driven ones and slightly more likely to vote, while the No are happier with the status quo and might be more apathetic.
It could be worth a couple of % points in the end.
Opinion polls supposedly put a weighting on the likelihood of the person being polled actually voting. But it can hardly be scientific.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: theskull1 on September 17, 2014, 01:01:14 PM
Spotted the saltire flying from a house in a nationalist area near an interface area.  ::)

As much as it tells a tale about how we goad with flags in this country....I couldn't help but smile
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on September 17, 2014, 01:12:34 PM
This quote from Bill Clinton highlights all the BS the Yes side have to put up with.

"Because the independence vote is a decision for the Scots alone to make, and because Scots are already legendary for their independence of mind, I have been reluctant to express my views on the matter. I hope my decision to do so will be received in the spirit of friendship with which it is offered," Clinton said in a statement released through the Better Together campaign.

Oh yeah, not interfering in a statement released through Better Together Campaign.

Add to this the bias of the BBC, the British media at large, world politicians (Obama, Barrosa etc), the portrayals of Scottish Nationalism = bad, British Nationalism = Unity.

Hopefully, the younger generation of Scots will prevail tomorrow. And if they do, watch them become a modern and prosperous Northern European country.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 17, 2014, 02:03:59 PM
Why would anyone expect the BBC to even be remotely neutral in this? They are the 'British' Broadcasting Corporation, and receive significant License Fees from Scotland. I know they should be objective and unbiased, as part of their broadcasting remit, but Jaysus I'd be shocked if these turkeys didn't try and vote Christmas out.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 17, 2014, 02:14:24 PM
In fairness Bill Clinton is a private citizen these days. His intervention is far more appropriate than that of Barack Obama or Tony Abbott. And the latter would have succeeded in driving people into the Yes camp with his croppy-lie-down comments (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28814936).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 02:18:42 PM
7am result will be known - some amount of Scots one way or the other pished by lunchtime on Friday.  ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 17, 2014, 02:23:33 PM
At the bookies, the continuation of the UK is less certain than the outcome of the Armagh Championship with 3 games to go. This is a good day on 2 counts.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 02:26:28 PM
Is that the Armagh championship for the next decade!!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 17, 2014, 03:15:05 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 17, 2014, 02:14:24 PM
In fairness Bill Clinton is a private citizen these days. His intervention is far more appropriate than that of Barack Obama or Tony Abbott. And the latter would have succeeded in driving people into the Yes camp with his croppy-lie-down comments (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28814936).

"Shadow international development secretary Jim Murphy played down Mr Abbott's remarks.
The Labour MP, who was campaigning for Better Together in Clydebank, told BBC Scotland that Australians were "famously outspoken and famously direct"

almost as bad as Dutch people but they kept their noses out of the debate
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 17, 2014, 03:35:30 PM
Thursday night, Friday morning in my gaff:

(http://i.imgur.com/VuJSaYn.gif)

(Be grateful there's no such thing as Smell-o-Gif)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armaghgeddon on September 17, 2014, 04:32:55 PM
It is obvious that all these big companies are scaremongering becuase if Scotland does go it alone the big companies are the ones that will lose out, they don't care about the people of Scotland they care about their profits.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Agent Orange on September 17, 2014, 04:35:20 PM
4 opinion polls in the last 24 hours:

Survation: Yes 48% No 52%
ICM: Yes 48% No 52%
Opinium: Yes 48% No 52%
Panelbase: Yes 48% No 52%
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 17, 2014, 04:38:31 PM
Quote from: Agent Orange on September 17, 2014, 04:35:20 PM
4 opinion polls in the last 24 hours:

Survation: Yes 48% No 52%
ICM: Yes 48% No 52%
Opinium: Yes 48% No 52%
Panelbase: Yes 48% No 52%

Margin of error, 4% no?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Agent Orange on September 17, 2014, 04:40:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 17, 2014, 04:38:31 PM
Quote from: Agent Orange on September 17, 2014, 04:35:20 PM
4 opinion polls in the last 24 hours:

Survation: Yes 48% No 52%
ICM: Yes 48% No 52%
Opinium: Yes 48% No 52%
Panelbase: Yes 48% No 52%

Margin of error, 4% no?


Aye
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 17, 2014, 04:46:43 PM
There are still a lot of undecideds. All to play for in the final soundbytes - which is what will surely sway anyone who hasn't been able to decide until this stage.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 17, 2014, 04:52:49 PM
I'd imagine if you are undecided at this stage you're more likely to vote No.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Billys Boots on September 17, 2014, 04:53:08 PM
QuoteAll to play for in the final soundbytes

Wow, that's depressing.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armaghgeddon on September 17, 2014, 04:53:23 PM
An online bookmaker is so confident of a win for the No camp it has already started paying out to those who staked money on it. Betfair said it was paying out a 'six-figure sum' despite the polls narrowing. It said gambling patterns indicate a 79 per cent likelihood of a No vote.

- Vote yes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on September 17, 2014, 05:11:41 PM
It's a crying shame that BT seem to be shading it.

I will be extremely surprised (and delighted) if the Yes camp makes a late surge and gets over the line. Unfortunately bookies tend to get these things right.

Either way, around half of Scots are going to get the exact opposite of what they want which is a tragedy in itself.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 17, 2014, 05:14:28 PM
Interesting times. In 20 years these Islands will be composed of Scotland (GDP er capita €33000, England (GDP per capita £27000, Wales (GDP per capita  €28000), Ireland (GDP per capita €45000) and Larnia (capital Newtownabbey, GDP per capita 150,000,000 Carsons = £15,000).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 17, 2014, 05:58:33 PM
Latest Ipsos/Mori commissioned by STV

Yes 49% No 51%
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: T Fearon on September 17, 2014, 08:36:09 PM
The odds on a Scottish No vote are not as short as  Dublin's were against Donegal.Anything can happen
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 17, 2014, 08:50:52 PM
Quote from: Armaghgeddon on September 17, 2014, 04:53:23 PM
An online bookmaker is so confident of a win for the No camp it has already started paying out to those who staked money on it. Betfair said it was paying out a 'six-figure sum' despite the polls narrowing. It said gambling patterns indicate a 79 per cent likelihood of a No vote.

- Vote yes.

Owned by a major Tory Donor. More favours being called in. Buttons paid out to try and change the momentum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 17, 2014, 08:51:45 PM
Quote from: passedit on September 17, 2014, 08:50:52 PM
Quote from: Armaghgeddon on September 17, 2014, 04:53:23 PM
An online bookmaker is so confident of a win for the No camp it has already started paying out to those who staked money on it. Betfair said it was paying out a 'six-figure sum' despite the polls narrowing. It said gambling patterns indicate a 79 per cent likelihood of a No vote.

- Vote yes.

Owned by a major Tory Donor. More favours being called in. Buttons paid out to try and change the momentum.

Did they push the odds of a Yes way out?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 17, 2014, 08:53:53 PM
Think the No vote will win narrowly but Jesus, Mary & Joseph I would love to see the reaction if Yes prevails.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:15:39 PM
Yes campaigners on Twitter, particularly the socialists and greens, are very confident. Could be bluff and bluster but is odd not to show any doubt.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 17, 2014, 09:21:26 PM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 17, 2014, 08:53:53 PM
Think the No vote will win narrowly but Jesus, Mary & Joseph I would love to see the reaction if Yes prevails.

89% here agree with you!  :D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:28:05 PM
Salmond giving some speech live on BBC and Sky News at the moment.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 10:21:24 PM
Quote from: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:28:05 PM
Salmond giving some speech live on BBC and Sky News at the moment.

Salmond is a tool of tools but like Kenny said - I will love it if we beat them! Love it!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Minder on September 17, 2014, 10:22:33 PM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 10:21:24 PM
Quote from: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 09:28:05 PM
Salmond giving some speech live on BBC and Sky News at the moment.

Salmond is a tool of tools but like Kenny said - I will love it if we beat them! Love it!

Kenny Keegan ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Windmill abu on September 17, 2014, 10:36:39 PM
I work with a staunch unionist, he is an absolute gentleman and has no problem discussing politics when the topic arises, without taking a  siege mentality position. I asked him today if the referendum went in favour of the yes vote, would he in the future align himself with the Scottish or English side of the split.

He said that he hoped that the vote would be no. But if it went the other way, then a lot of his ancestors came from Scotland and he would associate himself with them more than the English.

If his point of view was replicated across mainstream unionism, this would seriously weaken the GB & NI Union which currently exists.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: T Fearon on September 17, 2014, 10:40:28 PM
Does anyone think if there was a referendum in the six counties,Cameron,Clegg,Miliband et al would be over pleading for a No vote?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 17, 2014, 10:50:03 PM
I think whatever happens politics in TAFKA the UK will never be the same again. Big issues for Ulster Unionism coming down the tracks. New situation.

Cameron misjudged the mood when he defined the terms of the vote as well. There have been some very interesting insights during the last few week 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/aa365d5e-38e5-11e4-a53b-00144feabdc0.html

The charge sheet against Mr Cameron includes his decision that only "full independence" should be placed on the ballot paper, rather than an additional "devo max" option, and giving the vote to schoolchildren but not to Scots living beyond the country's borders.
Lord Lester, a Liberal Democrat peer and barrister who was special adviser on constitutional reform to Gordon Brown when he was prime minister, said: "It was Cameron's failure to allow that second question [on the ballot] – and Labour's to press for it – that has led to this situation. There is only one question and it is not the right question – and it is an extremely dangerous question. If answered Yes, it is going to lead to the weakening of Scotland and the UK."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01079330-377b-11e4-bd0a-00144feabdc0.html
"Everybody has been focusing on geopolitics, with issues in the Ukraine and the Middle East . . . but this is the one thing they were not looking at," said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, the largest global fund manager.
"Up until now this was not on the radar of many investors, certainly not in the US, and if it was people assumed this vote would not pass. If the Yes vote passes, then investors would have to accept a prolonged period of uncertainty for UK assets, from the currency to gilts to equities."


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/df8e3328-34df-11e4-ba5d-00144feabdc0.html

The UK is not an immutable fact of nature; it is a human design that can be undesigned when the circumstances that gave rise to it no longer obtain. The break-up of the union would be sad and a practical ordeal that would suck up years of work in both Westminster and Holyrood. But it would not be an aberration. Historical forces make it explicable.
The coward's way out is to avoid dwelling on the underlying trends that have chipped away at the union for half a century, and to blame a few campaign chiefs instead. This is a lousy way of understanding what is happening in Scotland, and an even worse way of preparing for political movements to come.
Trends point to the rise of English nationalism – already here in the disguised form of the UK Independence party – and demands by London for more autonomy. Our obsession with the particular and the personal will blind us to these forces until they strike us in the face.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2014/sep/10/scotland-referendum-britain-independence-vote
Regardless of the referendum outcome, the campaign has proved a catastrophic failure for Labour. It is no longer an effective vehicle for democracy and social justice in one of its oldest heartlands. Its vote has collapsed. The word most commonly used in conjunction with Labour is 'corrupt'.
As an Atlantic archipelago of islands on the edge of Europe, we have far more in common with each other than not, and do not necessarily need a political union to make that a reality. What we will need is new institutions of collaboration across the nations and regions of the isles.
It's a dramatic redrafting of the story of Britain. In recent decades, it has been self-evident that the Britain of empire and monarchy, of army and church, is history. Britishness has historically been seen as an export, more about how to project ourselves on to the world than how we want to live together. Attempts to revitalise Britishness by claiming human values, such as fair play, rang hollow. The Better Together campaign has been dogged with the absence of any emotionally resonant vision of Britain to articulate as a defence of union.
This idea of Britain is already lost regardless of 18 September's verdict. That much is commonplace. The point, then, is what you do about it. England will have to find its way to a new relationship, one among equals with the other nations that share these British islands.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-effing-tories-pariah-devolution
The deeper source of decline was when the Tory party role as a Protestant party of the Union and Empire waned in the early 1960s. It steadily lost the skilled Protestant working class, as Britishness and sectarianism lost their appeal, while its Clydeside industrial class leaders were replaced by anglicised lairds and aristocrats. As the Scottish middle classes abandoned the cities, Labour consolidated its hold on urban Scotland while retaining the loyalty of the Catholic working class.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/11/not-just-scotland-politics-as-usual-finished-falkirk-clacton-disaffected
In the broadcast media in particular, there is an implied assumption that "the Scotland moment" is something confined to that country. But the reality across the UK suggests something much deeper and wider, and a simple enough fact: that what is happening north of the border is the most spectacular manifestation of a phenomenon taking root all over – indeed, if the splintering of politics and the rise of new forces on both left and right across Europe are anything to go by, a set of developments not defined by specific national circumstances, but profound social and economic ruptures.  ....in such diverse places as Clacton-on-Sea, the Rhondda valley and the central Scottish industrial belt, I have recently heard exactly the same stuff: anguished talk of insecurity, the decline of people's towns (a massively overlooked aspect of the public mood), their fears for their children's futures, and the sense that cosseted politicians know nothing of their lives, nor ever will. Younger people tend to this last point as the natural state of things and either talk about the new alternatives, or admit to no interest in politics at all; older people voice their feelings with a profound sense of betrayal.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 17, 2014, 10:58:35 PM
Quote from: T Fearon on September 17, 2014, 10:40:28 PM
Does anyone think if there was a referendum in the six counties,Cameron,Clegg,Miliband et al would be over pleading for a No vote?

Why would you care - sure the Vatican rules you.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ONeill on September 17, 2014, 11:02:08 PM
Prediction:

No 55
Yes 45
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: rrhf on September 17, 2014, 11:11:29 PM
I think the yes vote will fall slightly leaving a 60 40 or stronger split. An honourable defeat is the outcome.
Salmond to end up as a peer.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 17, 2014, 11:18:47 PM
So Scotland to get all these 'extra powers' - even though I wouldn't hold my breath, and to become more independent anyway if they vote no??
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Aaron Boone on September 17, 2014, 11:32:05 PM
I predict a draw 50:50, UK to remain intact.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: WT4E on September 17, 2014, 11:37:15 PM
Just tuned in to some news on this:

I was amazed by the two differing speeches brown was scaremongering and desperate; salmon appeared calm and reassured! Think could have an effect on fence sitters!

As I heard recently : why would anyone not want to govern themselves????
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on September 17, 2014, 11:38:58 PM
Molly Bloom says yes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: andoireabu on September 17, 2014, 11:41:57 PM
If it doesn't pass how long do they have to wait until they try again? If it's as close as the polls suggest I can't see the 'yes' side giving up and going away.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: macdanger2 on September 17, 2014, 11:45:18 PM
Heard on radio 1 earlier that there won't be a recount on this regardless of how close it is - seems strange. That wouldn't preclude a legal challenge requesting a recount though
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 17, 2014, 11:54:35 PM
I'll swing with Tommy Sheridan and predict independence for Scotland on 53%. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 12:01:18 AM
There are apparently more than 10% undecided. I think the waverers will swing to Yes. I think tonight's TV was overwhelmingly persuasive towards Yes. And the polls are not counting the newly registered, who will be massively Yes.

Narrow Yes is my prediction.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Shamrock Shore on September 18, 2014, 12:13:33 AM
(http://www.edinphoto.org.uk/0_my_p_edyr_07/0_my_photos_edyr_08_2002_-_gpo_1vi21a.jpg)

If the referendum fails here's the GPO in Edinburgh if anyone's interested.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 12:38:14 AM
Whatever happens tomorrow, I can safely say that the No campaign has been the most pathetic, negative and downright incompetent political campaign I've ever seen, and that includes the Yes campaign in Lisbon I here and recent Republican campaigns in the US.

It would be fooking amazing to see them suffer the humiliating defeat they so richly deserve.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jell 0 Biafra on September 18, 2014, 01:49:11 AM
Quote from: Main Street on September 17, 2014, 11:38:58 PM
Molly Bloom says yes.

But does she mean it?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Bud Wiser on September 18, 2014, 03:54:45 AM
http://youtu.be/DD9Qs6bXlmU

Hope over Fear. I think this is brilliant and its causing a bit of a stir on FB etc.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggy90 on September 18, 2014, 06:21:33 AM
Quote from: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 12:38:14 AM
Whatever happens tomorrow, I can safely say that the No campaign has been the most pathetic, negative and downright incompetent political campaign I've ever seen, and that includes the Yes campaign in Lisbon I here and recent Republican campaigns in the US.

It would be fooking amazing to see them suffer the humiliating defeat they so richly deserve.

Makes you wonder why?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 18, 2014, 07:08:04 AM
Some people are saying if Yes prevails, next on the agenda will be a united Ireland. I couldn't see it myself, too much of a mess to clean up in the north first and that job has barely begun. My money would be on Wales going next.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on September 18, 2014, 07:57:05 AM
It will be a no. When it comes to the crunch in the booth they will chicken out
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: theskull1 on September 18, 2014, 08:08:47 AM
The well paid higher tax bracket group will be critical. How many will vote ethically and how many will vote selfishly. A more fairer society relies on someone taking the hit.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: cicfada on September 18, 2014, 08:10:30 AM
Will be a no vote in the end all right, the scare tactics will make most of the undecideds stay with the "safe" option. A pity but when there's been nothing but a constant stream of threats and warnings from financial institutions, establishment politicians and 95% of the media in the last 2 weeks then what other outcome could be expected? I presume that there won't be another referendum on this matter in our lifetime anyway ? ( 50 years)??
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 18, 2014, 08:12:56 AM
That's what I thought the last few weeks.  But I dunno now!  The yes campaign have wiped the floor with the no in any debate, discussion, or light hearted panel show I have watched.  The audiences always seem more yes leaning.  I think I read that there will be 300k voters under 18 who the polls have largely ignored who will not chicken out and will vote resoundingly yes.  Watching the "the great British breakup" last night swayed me enough to put a wager on yes winning.   It's going to be very tight but I think the scots realise they are on the cusp of something great.  Will they take their chance?  I think they will.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 18, 2014, 08:16:17 AM
Quote from: macdanger2 on September 17, 2014, 11:45:18 PM
Heard on radio 1 earlier that there won't be a recount on this regardless of how close it is - seems strange. That wouldn't preclude a legal challenge requesting a recount though
Think I read somewhere each counting sector (which are Council areas - of which there are 32) has a right to one recount.

Agree with the patheticness of the No campaign, shambolic. Yes could sneak it, but it is more likely the undecideds are Nos because it's not as 'cool' & the genuine fear of intimidation.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 18, 2014, 08:21:15 AM
Quote from: theskull1 on September 18, 2014, 08:08:47 AM
The well paid higher tax bracket group will be critical. How many will vote ethically and how many will vote selfishly. A more fairer society relies on someone taking the hit.
In a straight headcount they are no more important that a Dole claimant, who in this case would most certainly outnumber them. Plus the SNP have been known to be called the real Scottish Tories, so it should be their natural support base.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 08:22:54 AM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 18, 2014, 07:08:04 AM
Some people are saying if Yes prevails, next on the agenda will be a united Ireland. I couldn't see it myself, too much of a mess to clean up in the north first and that job has barely begun. My money would be on Wales going next.
Id say there is more hope of the Isle of Man breaking away, the Welsh seems quite content with there lot .
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 18, 2014, 08:31:44 AM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on September 18, 2014, 07:57:05 AM
It will be a no. When it comes to the crunch in the booth they will chicken out
They don't have the same attitude as Irish people - or do they?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 08:39:57 AM
Quote from: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 08:22:54 AM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 18, 2014, 07:08:04 AM
Some people are saying if Yes prevails, next on the agenda will be a united Ireland. I couldn't see it myself, too much of a mess to clean up in the north first and that job has barely begun. My money would be on Wales going next.
Id say there is more hope of the Isle of Man breaking away, the Welsh seems quite content with there lot .

Exactly. Wales seem quite content with their position as a part of Britain, albeit with strong cultural identity. They are the best of the Celts in terms of language, but the least inclined towards independence. They are a principality technically, I think, and seem quite happy with that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 18, 2014, 08:42:23 AM
Quote from: T Fearon on September 17, 2014, 10:40:28 PM
Does anyone think if there was a referendum in the six counties,Cameron,Clegg,Miliband et al would be over pleading for a No vote?

No, I'd think they'd be over pleading for a Yes vote!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 18, 2014, 08:47:59 AM
Quote from: ONeill on September 17, 2014, 11:02:08 PM
Prediction:

No 55
Yes 45

I think the no could be higher - as someone else alluded to the No's have been quiet probably because of fear of intimidation.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 18, 2014, 09:00:03 AM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 18, 2014, 08:47:59 AM
Quote from: ONeill on September 17, 2014, 11:02:08 PM
Prediction:

No 55
Yes 45

I think the no could be higher - as someone else alluded to the No's have been quiet probably because of fear of intimidation.

I'm going for No to prevail in the region of 55%/45% +-2%.  I think a lot of "heart" Yes voters will crap themselves in the voting booth.  Though Andy Murray coming out for Yes might sway a few undecided tennis club members!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 18, 2014, 09:01:03 AM
http://andymurrayometer.com/ (http://andymurrayometer.com/)

This fella might need to update his page. Hopefully 100% swing.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/scottish-independence-andy-murray-backs-the-yes-campaign-in-eleventh-hour-decision-9739784.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/scottish-independence-andy-murray-backs-the-yes-campaign-in-eleventh-hour-decision-9739784.html)

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 18, 2014, 09:25:17 AM
Quote from: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 08:22:54 AM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 18, 2014, 07:08:04 AM
Some people are saying if Yes prevails, next on the agenda will be a united Ireland. I couldn't see it myself, too much of a mess to clean up in the north first and that job has barely begun. My money would be on Wales going next.
Id say there is more hope of the Isle of Man breaking away, the Welsh seems quite content with there lot .

Point of order but the Isle of Man are not part of the UK so they've nothing to break away from. The UK represents it in foreign affairs but to all intents and purpose they are independent.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Bensars on September 18, 2014, 09:45:45 AM
I think the Yes could sneak this. After 10 days of operation "fear" and the support or to some degree bias of all the major media outlets, the scaremongering, the supermarkets, all daves political allies across the world etc etc  the latest polls are showing that the Yes vote could be within touching distance. 52% vs 48%.

Seen on twitter last night someone within conservative party ( cant remember who) stating  a week or more ago, that if the Yes vote were around high 40% mark come election day that you could say goodbye to the United Kingdom.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ulick on September 18, 2014, 09:52:09 AM
I know it's only anecdotal and everything by the #indyref tag on Twitter is something to behold. If it was representative it would be a landslide for Yes. People coming out crying after voting with the emotion of it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 18, 2014, 10:39:33 AM
Sign at Gretna
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxzamE-CYAAsqM1.jpg)
Voters queuing
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxzaDj9IMAArzE7.jpg)
Clegg's pledges
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxmnZywCQAAcWS4.jpg:large), (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxmnag9CUAENofl.jpg:large)
Scotland's Facebook Status
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BxzkJN2CYAAg4_O.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ardtole on September 18, 2014, 10:42:41 AM
I would love to see a yes vote tomorrow morning. Il be sitting up tonight to see the voting patterns emerge, i see PP have moved the yes vote out to 7/2, I might have a small bet after work today. I can imagine the unionists in the North are sick in their stomachs with worry today, hopefully the scots will grasp this opportunity. Ive been following the campaign for the last two weeks and the yes supporters seem to me to have a real momentum with them. I was suprised their odds drifted out to 7/2 with Paddy Power they usually know whats going on but I hope they are wrong this time.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 18, 2014, 10:51:05 AM
https://twitter.com/ecruden/status/512495518644441089/photo/1 (https://twitter.com/ecruden/status/512495518644441089/photo/1)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 10:56:11 AM
I think this is going to at least 47-53 for No. I'm not convinced by arguments that the polling is not sampling the right voters or that they have no reference point because there has been nothing like this before. The science of polling has come a long way since the 1992 general election in Britain and they've gotten the numbers consistently right since then. And that election contains a lesson - that a lot of people are reluctant to admit they are voting for the status quo. Oh, in public they moan about the Tories and how much they hate the establishment and someone needs to give them a good kick up the arse. But when it comes to the privacy of the polling booth, their courage will fail them. Hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:03:10 AM
I think a referendum like this would have to be well ahead in preliminary polls for it to be actually carried. It's a huge change, and would need a lot of residual support to get it through the last minute wavering and the cold feet.

I suspect 56-44 to the No side.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:20:41 AM
I heard some media analyst on Newstalk this morning saying that social media have been much closer to the actual outcome than the market research polls in the last referendum here and that based on volume of tweets, Twitter is predicting a Yes outcome.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:26:24 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:20:41 AM
I heard some media analyst on Newstalk this morning saying that social media have been much closer to the actual outcome than the market research polls in the last referendum here and that based on volume of tweets, Twitter is predicting a Yes outcome.

The last few Irish referendums have had zero interest outside of Ireland, so you are looking at Irish tweets and FB messages only.  However the Scottish referendum has had huge interest outside of Scotland, and most Irish people for example would be urging a yes vote.  This could skew the social media figures.  I hope I'm wrong though and that Hardy's man is right!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:26:30 AM
Paddy Power has No at 5/1 on. Yes is 7/2.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:28:37 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Yeah - he went into all that and still came down on the Yes side.

I was wondering about exit polls. I don't think the media are allowed to publish exit polls until after voting. But what would stop RTÉ from publishing one? They're not subject to UK law.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:29:02 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:28:37 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Yeah - he went into all that and still came down on the Yes side.

I was wondering about exit polls. I don't think the media are allowed to publish exit polls until after voting. But what would stop RTÉ from publishing one? They're not subject to UK law.

And sure maybe Scotland won't be either :)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 11:33:18 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

I think the issue here is that the "Yes" proportion might differ in different regions. Some of the areas with smaller population will declare first and these might be strong "Yes" areas. Glasgow will declare much later and Labour is strong there.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 11:33:55 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 11:28:37 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:24:42 AM
Who tweets? Younger ones. Who would be more inclined to vote to keep the status quo? I'd guess older ones. We'll just have to see I suppose. Any exit polls or anything like that?

Yeah - he went into all that and still came down on the Yes side.

I was wondering about exit polls. I don't think the media are allowed to publish exit polls until after voting. But what would stop RTÉ from publishing one? They're not subject to UK law.

I'm inclined towards the Mandy Rice-Davies view of 'media analysts' and the power of Twitter. Then again, I hope he's right!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 18, 2014, 11:38:03 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

No.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 11:39:08 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 11:33:18 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

I think the issue here is that the "Yes" proportion might differ in different regions. Some of the areas with smaller population will declare first and these might be strong "Yes" areas. Glasgow will declare much later and Labour is strong there.
Labour has never been more out of touch with its traditional base. Glasgow will be a strong No, I'd imagine.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:40:12 AM
If it's a strong No, then it will align with the Labour leadership.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: haranguerer on September 18, 2014, 11:44:46 AM
Quote from: Feckitt on September 18, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
What time tonight should the TV stations be able to call it one way or another.  They keep talking about the result being about 5 or 6 Friday morning but if I stay up, will i get a pretty clear idea by midnight?  1.00?  2am?

Go to bed, it'll be the same result in the morning
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 11:46:39 AM
Jaysus.  Lack of sleep. ???

Glasgow will be be a strong Yes, I meant, obviously.  ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 18, 2014, 11:54:36 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:40:12 AM
If it's a strong No, then it will align with the Labour leadership.

With thon Milliband lad, surely thats an oxymoron!

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:55:27 AM
Sorry, "Leadership".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Owenmoresider on September 18, 2014, 12:36:31 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:26:30 AM
Paddy Power has No at 5/1 on. Yes is 7/2.
Surprised PP hasn't done their usual publicity stunt of paying out early yet. Probably announce it straight at 10pm otherwise.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyCake on September 18, 2014, 12:47:08 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on September 18, 2014, 11:54:36 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 11:40:12 AM
If it's a strong No, then it will align with the Labour leadership.

With thon Milliband lad, surely thats an oxymoron!

Which one? Steve or Glenn?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: passedit on September 18, 2014, 01:24:16 PM
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/independence-referendum-vicious-internet-troll-4280094 (http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/independence-referendum-vicious-internet-troll-4280094)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bx0Ezi8IAAA2GOQ.png)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 18, 2014, 01:35:23 PM
Will Harry 8 be spending a bit of time at Her Majesties pleasure for those comments?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 01:43:47 PM
Those tweets have vanished (https://twitter.com/sportingharry). No doubt his account was hacked.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 01:55:03 PM
Quote from: the_daddy on September 18, 2014, 01:52:19 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 01:43:47 PM
Those tweets have vanished (https://twitter.com/sportingharry). No doubt his account was hacked.

They haven't, you need to click on the tweets and replies tab.

I stand corrected. Still expecting "my account was hacked" though.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 01:55:23 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 01:43:47 PM
Those tweets have vanished (https://twitter.com/sportingharry). No doubt his account was hacked.
He is a classy guy based on his tweets of the 10th April...
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 01:59:51 PM
Quote from: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 01:55:23 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 18, 2014, 01:43:47 PM
Those tweets have vanished (https://twitter.com/sportingharry). No doubt his account was hacked.
He is a classy guy based on his tweets of the 10th April...

I'm beginning to wonder whether that's a meat puppet account I set up while sleep-walking to make my enemies look bad!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:17:16 PM
I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 18, 2014, 02:22:53 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:17:16 PM
I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?

This is true democracy at work, not those general elections where you get to vote for various parties who either have no say whatsoever in running the place or are just mirror images of one another.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hound on September 18, 2014, 02:26:52 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:17:16 PM
I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?
Anything over 80% would be extraordinary.

But not sure it helps the Yes.
All the bookies are still broadly in agreement. No 1/5, Yes 7/2.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: TF15 on September 18, 2014, 02:35:05 PM
It'll disappoint me when the Scots bottle it and a 'No Vote' wins. Media stoking it up closer than it is as it makes good TV.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 02:35:24 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:17:16 PM
I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?

You'd like to think that an issue like this would bring out the vote. At the end of the day they are voting for their status as a country. I'm not sure if it favours Yes. Surely No voters would be just as motivated, out of fear, to come out and protect the Union?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 02:35:35 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 18, 2014, 02:26:52 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:17:16 PM
I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?
Anything over 80% would be extraordinary.

But not sure it helps the Yes.
All the bookies are still broadly in agreement. No 1/5, Yes 7/2.
Why wouldn't it help Yes? Turnout is usually lower in lower socio-economic areas. People in these areas are surely more likely to vote Yes if they do vote. If the turnout in these areas is high, and it looks like it is, it has to help the Yes vote.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:45:51 PM
Quote from: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 02:35:35 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 18, 2014, 02:26:52 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:17:16 PM
I haven't heard the possible effects of the huge turnout discussed. An amazing 90% is being predicted. I would have thought that would strongly favour Yes. Do we know if this is factored into the poll predictions?
Anything over 80% would be extraordinary.

But not sure it helps the Yes.
All the bookies are still broadly in agreement. No 1/5, Yes 7/2.
Why wouldn't it help Yes? Turnout is usually lower in lower socio-economic areas. People in these areas are surely more likely to vote Yes if they do vote. If the turnout in these areas is high, and it looks like it is, it has to help the Yes vote.

That's it - why I assumed a high turnout favours Yes.

Quote from: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 02:37:48 PM
If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?

No. I'd think it would mean the opposite in that case, as there are probably more people who don't habitually use their franchise who would be on the No side in that one. That's my speculation anyway.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:49:52 PM
The Yes price is drifting slightly on Betfair since this morning 5.7 out to 5.9.

The bookies'/exchange prices, however, don't represent any prescience on the part of bookies, as in "the bookies are seldom wrong". It's a market. It reflects the opinions of the participants in the market, i.e. the weight of money on each side. In the case of an election/referendum, I'd guess that's influenced most by the published opinion polls, just as our speculation here is.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 02:50:32 PM
Quote from: TF15 on September 18, 2014, 02:35:05 PM
It'll disappoint me when the Scots bottle it and a 'No Vote' wins. Media stoking it up closer than it is as it makes good TV.

I think it is like the Mayo - Kerry game, the referee wasn't fair and there should be replay until the right result to obtained.

QuoteQuote from: AZOffaly on Today at 02:37:48 PM

    If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?

No. I'd think it would mean the opposite in that case, as there are probably more people who don't habitually use their franchise who would be on the No side in that one. That's my speculation anyway.

leave Milltown out of it, Scotland is different.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 18, 2014, 05:28:05 PM
Aren't bookies already paying out on a No vote?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 07:00:51 PM
Still trading on Betfair if you want a punt, no is still 1.18.
The markets there suggest a Turnout prediction in the mid 80s.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ardtole on September 18, 2014, 07:23:33 PM
I stuck €20 on boylesports for a yes vote at 4/1. Hopefully cover the beer on Sunday.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ONeill on September 18, 2014, 07:42:54 PM
Changed my mind. Instead of 55% no I think closer to 60
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 18, 2014, 08:09:50 PM
Quote from: ONeill on September 18, 2014, 07:42:54 PM
Changed my mind. Instead of 55% no I think closer to 60

Ah'll no baither votin' then Wullie
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 18, 2014, 08:10:15 PM
I think Yes might sneak it. All depends on turnout.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 08:26:46 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 18, 2014, 02:49:52 PM
The Yes price is drifting slightly on Betfair since this morning 5.7 out to 5.9.

The bookies'/exchange prices, however, don't represent any prescience on the part of bookies, as in "the bookies are seldom wrong". It's a market. It reflects the opinions of the participants in the market, i.e. the weight of money on each side. In the case of an election/referendum, I'd guess that's influenced most by the published opinion polls, just as our speculation here is.

Still drifting - 6.2
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 18, 2014, 08:33:46 PM
No camp (and O'Neill) predicting 58 - 42 "win"
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LondonCamanachd on September 18, 2014, 09:08:24 PM
F*ck's sake, democracy is horrible - this is like trying to follow a Cup Final penalty shootout on a radio with a dodgy signal.

I have no idea what will happen, I'm swinging from hope and elation to despair and fear, as I see the various posts on Twitter and Facebook from folk who have voted.

It comes down to this, which side of the Scots psyche is stronger: "ach, f*ck it, let's dae this" or "we'll pay for this" ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 09:27:52 PM
QuoteNo camp (and O'Neill) predicting 58 - 42 "win"

The odds haven't swung much, so the "wisdom of crowds" does not suggest such a large margin. 
There are no tallymen, apparently, so hard to get a feel for things after 10pm. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Aaron Boone on September 18, 2014, 09:31:58 PM
If anyone's in Ballycastle, are you getting any vibe from across the water?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyHarp on September 18, 2014, 10:19:51 PM
Adam Boulton just reckoned that there was over 100% turn out of voters in some areas. Either he's getting a bit carried away or Sinn Fein must have been orcastrating the voters.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 18, 2014, 10:21:56 PM
Quote from: BennyHarp on September 18, 2014, 10:19:51 PM
Adam Boulton just reckoned that there was over 100% turn out of voters in some areas. Either he's getting a bit carried away or Sinn Fein must have been orcastrating the voters.
;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Minder on September 18, 2014, 10:25:27 PM
Looking like a comprehensive win for "No"
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: glens abu on September 18, 2014, 10:26:17 PM
Quote from: Minder on September 18, 2014, 10:25:27 PM
Looking like a comprehensive win for "No"

What makes you say that?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: The Worker on September 18, 2014, 10:28:43 PM
No 53

Yes 47
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maurice Moss on September 18, 2014, 10:29:13 PM
It probably has already been asked and answered on here but ifthe result is a no result, when would be the next time an independence referendum could possibly take place?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Minder on September 18, 2014, 10:32:00 PM
Final YouGov poll -

No 56 Yes 44
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 18, 2014, 10:32:29 PM
First exit poll

YouGov @YouGov  ·  29s
YouGov #IndyRef prediction: YES 46%, NO 54% - http://y-g.co/1mjwlQz
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 10:34:29 PM
There must be some sort of exit poll, odds for "No" have dropped somewhat, with "Yes" now 7/1 or more. Close, perhaps, but no cigar.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Minder on September 18, 2014, 10:35:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 10:34:29 PM
There must be some sort of exit poll, odds for "No" have dropped somewhat, with "Yes" now 7/1 or more. Close, perhaps, but no cigar.

There is no exit poll
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 18, 2014, 10:36:11 PM
Quote from: Minder on September 18, 2014, 10:35:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 10:34:29 PM
There must be some sort of exit poll, odds for "No" have dropped somewhat, with "Yes" now 7/1 or more. Close, perhaps, but no cigar.

There is no exit poll
Well there's the YouGov poll, contacting people after they've voted, which is as close as we'll get apparently.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 18, 2014, 10:37:07 PM
If that poll is correct, then I suppose the status quo remains.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 10:39:08 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 18, 2014, 10:37:07 PM
If that poll is correct, then I suppose the status quo remains.
with the new powers promised to Scotland it will be no status quo.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 18, 2014, 10:39:35 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 18, 2014, 10:37:07 PM
If that poll is correct, then I suppose the status quo remains.
That's the kind of sharp insight we need around here!
:P
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 18, 2014, 10:42:40 PM
Quote from: Maguire01 on September 18, 2014, 10:39:35 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 18, 2014, 10:37:07 PM
If that poll is correct, then I suppose the status quo remains.
That's the kind of sharp insight we need around here!
:P
Haha, I just thought to myself after I posted that, Jesus any hoor could come up with that statement! :D

Quote from: ludermor on September 18, 2014, 10:39:08 PM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 18, 2014, 10:37:07 PM
If that poll is correct, then I suppose the status quo remains.
with the new powers promised to Scotland it will be no status quo.
Promised being the key word. They may not get any!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: dec on September 18, 2014, 10:54:29 PM
Latest Paddy Power odds

Against Independence (Fail)
1/16
   
For Independence (Pass)
13/2
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 18, 2014, 10:57:04 PM
I said 56-44. It may be more comfortable than that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 11:09:07 PM
I propose Stockholm Syndrome be renamed "Scotland Syndrome".

Only for the men of '16 we'd have been subjected to those c***ts Bruton and Geldof telling the Irish we were "better together" over the last month. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RealSpiritof98 on September 18, 2014, 11:09:49 PM
The poll has to be taken lightly in this race, so unique are the events. Im still going slight no, but like everyone, who knows?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 11:20:34 PM
Quote from: RealSpiritof98 on September 18, 2014, 11:09:49 PM
The poll has to be taken lightly in this race, so unique are the events. Im still going slight no, but like everyone, who knows?
Give it up. The writing is on Hadrian's Wall.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LondonCamanachd on September 18, 2014, 11:39:29 PM
The good guys have lost - we just weren't ready for the media onslaught in the last 2 weeks.  :-\
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2014, 11:41:34 PM
Quote from: Sidney on September 18, 2014, 11:20:34 PM
Quote from: RealSpiritof98 on September 18, 2014, 11:09:49 PM
The poll has to be taken lightly in this race, so unique are the events. Im still going slight no, but like everyone, who knows?
Give it up. The writing is on Hadrian's Wall.

Hadrian's Wall is in England. This is what the thing is all about, getting instructions from England.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 12:07:43 AM
I wouldn't underestimate Plaid Cymru. Some clever people in there. Ever see Paxman thinking he was going to walk over a Welsh nationalist only to have his ass handed to him?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gy7f8vP2QY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gy7f8vP2QY)

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 19, 2014, 01:25:31 AM
In a parallel world:

Former Prime Minister Lord Bruton of Boyneside and Sir Bob Geldof have made impassioned pleas for Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom ahead of Friday's referendum on whether Ireland should secede.

"We've fought two World Wars together, and we've been part of the greatest and most successful political union the world has ever seen. It would be tragic to throw away almost 850 years of shared history", said Lord Bruton, who served as Prime Minister from 1990 to 1997 and Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1982 to 1990, and is best remembered for his imposition of the infamous "poll tax" on Ireland, even after it had been dropped in the rest of the Union.

"Ireland is a feeling", said Geldof, in a speech at a rally at the John Redmond Cenotaph in Dublin's Sackville Street, which was also attended by Irish First Minister Enda Kenny and Prime Minister David Cameron.

Geldof has been joined by other famous names from the entertainment world, such as U2's Bono, BBC Ireland's Gay Byrne and Terry Wogan, and ITV Ireland's Ryan Tubridy in calling for a No vote.

Sporting stars such as England and Kilkenny county cricket legend Henry Shefflington, golfer Rory McIlroy, Ireland football star Roy Queen and rugby player Brian O'Driscoll have also been lining up to play their part in the "Better Together" campaign.

Meanwhile former US Open golf champion Graeme McDowell, Ireland cricket captain John Mooney and British Loins rugby captain Sean Cavanagh have been on the receiving end of a tirade of foul-mouthed abuse on Twitter after revealing that they favour independence.

Polls currently show the outcome to be too close to call, but it's thought that a strong Yes vote in areas such as Limerick, Wexford and West Dublin may be cancelled out by similarly strong No votes in Unionist strongholds such as Cork, Kilkenny and Fingal.

The referendum has been played out against a backdrop of controversial issues, such as the location of the UK's Trident Nuclear submarines off the west coast, and the No campaign arguing that revenues from the export of potatoes would be insufficient to run an independent economy. All major national newspapers have called for a No vote, however controversy flared at the weekend after Yes campaign leader Martin McGuinness was compared to Hitler by the Sunday Independent. Irish Times editor Eoghan Harris has said that "separating ourselves from the mainland would be a total disaster".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on September 19, 2014, 02:58:29 AM
Easy attack Bruton and Geldof but most recent poll shows more Catholics in NI back remaining in UK that joining a UI. And the opinion polls unfortunately look being accurate in the Scotland poll. It's clear people  put the their pennies before their patriotism.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 03:49:53 AM
The only chance for Yes now is Glasgow. Inverclyde is nearby and Yes got 49.92% there, the best result Yes has gotten so far from the 5 counties that have reported.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 03:57:59 AM
Good God Dundee just came in at 57.35% Yes! Yes overall is up to 49.09%! We're back in the game!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maurice Moss on September 19, 2014, 04:02:33 AM
Dundee just announced as first Yes win for Yes campaign, but I don't think it was a big enough win with 57%

Agreed Eamonnca1, the Yes campaign need a large majority win in Glasgow and it does not look likely having seen the Inverclyde results. Glasgow however, has had the lowest turn out from the 32 councils with 75%, but being the largest populated area only time will tell.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 04:56:25 AM
That's it now from Glasgow. Game over.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: DrinkingHarp on September 19, 2014, 05:17:47 AM
With a yes from Edinburgh and Fife that should be it right?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggy90 on September 19, 2014, 06:06:52 AM
Quote from: LondonCamanachd on September 18, 2014, 09:08:24 PM
F*ck's sake, democracy is horrible - this is like trying to follow a Cup Final penalty shootout on a radio with a dodgy signal.

I have no idea what will happen, I'm swinging from hope and elation to despair and fear, as I see the various posts on Twitter and Facebook from folk who have voted.

It comes down to this, which side of the Scots psyche is stronger: "ach, f*ck it, let's dae this" or "we'll pay for this" ?

Yep.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Never beat the deeler on September 19, 2014, 06:24:36 AM
Interesting to see what happens next:

Quote2:58pm: From Nick Miller in Edinburgh:
British Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to give a speech in an hour. It's going to be crucial.
Tired Scots who voted Yes will hope for a clear sign their fight was not in vain - that they made enough headway to secure the promise of further devolved powers.
Tired Scots who voted No because of that promise will want to be reassured it will not be walked back or diluted.
But there is a whole lot of banked-up outrage from Conservatives who will ask why Scotland should be given anything more, given they voted to stay with Britain.
And regions such as London and the North will be asking: if Scotland gets more devolved powers, why not us?
Some are tipping this could be the start of a constitutional revolution, with Britain moving to more of a federal model.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/live-scottish-independence-referendum-result-20140918-3g0tm.html#ixzz3DjhowgCL

From
http://www.smh.com.au/world/live-scottish-independence-referendum-result-20140918-3g0tm.html (http://www.smh.com.au/world/live-scottish-independence-referendum-result-20140918-3g0tm.html)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 19, 2014, 06:26:48 AM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 12:07:43 AM
I wouldn't underestimate Plaid Cymru. Some clever people in there. Ever see Paxman thinking he was going to walk over a Welsh nationalist only to have his ass handed to him?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gy7f8vP2QY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gy7f8vP2QY)
That was good.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyHarp on September 19, 2014, 07:02:19 AM
The independence supporters handled this all wrong. Alex Salmond should have went to Whitehall and negotiated independence for most of Scotland, perhaps leaving, let's say 6 of their counties under rule from London. I think that situation would have satisfied everyone and led to a lasting and viable future for all.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: rrhf on September 19, 2014, 07:25:43 AM
Take that butchers apron down. Scotland will be free tonight.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 07:45:40 AM
The beginning of a Constitutional revolution & UK politics has been reinvigorated - apart from the dreary steeples of this shithole obviously.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: lawnseed on September 19, 2014, 07:55:30 AM
Theyre "feart"
Afraid of everythimg. Truth is its the english taxpayer who needs to be asked in a referendum whether he/she wants to continue paying for basketcase regions while seeing cuts in services in england. Do the enjoy fleg waving orangies trashing this place every year while they pick up the bill? Is the 'united' "kingdom" more important than basic healthcare in birmingham?
Also if I was  a scot "yes" voter i'd be well pissed at commercial entities eg asda trying to influence voters. We had the same shite here from companies like intel wading into politcal questions during referendi. Its not their place and they should be told to mind their business especially as they enjoy the taxbreaks on offer while the taxpayer here struggles
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ballinaman on September 19, 2014, 07:59:57 AM
They shouldn't be allowed to sing flower of Scotland now...would sound a bit hollow!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: OakleafCounty on September 19, 2014, 08:00:03 AM
Well there you have it. The scaremongering and negativity of the 'Better Together' won. Ultimately I think the next time this comes around the Yes campaign will need to have a concrete plan in place in terms of currency. The ideal I think is that they will have their own currency but they will need to have savings in place to make up the deficit. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 19, 2014, 08:29:41 AM
Quote from: lawnseed on September 19, 2014, 07:55:30 AM
Theyre "feart"
Afraid of everythimg. Truth is its the english taxpayer who needs to be asked in a referendum whether he/she wants to continue paying for basketcase regions while seeing cuts in services in england. Do the enjoy fleg waving orangies trashing this place every year while they pick up the bill? Is the 'united' "kingdom" more important than basic healthcare in birmingham?
Also if I was  a scot "yes" voter i'd be well pissed at commercial entities eg asda trying to influence voters. We had the same shite here from companies like intel wading into politcal questions during referendi. Its not their place and they should be told to mind their business especially as they enjoy the taxbreaks on offer while the taxpayer here struggles

That's the thing, Scotland isn't a basket case if you take into consideration the tax tax from the same region.
The lack of investment since Thatcher in the northern regions for a services based industry in the South East has caused the disparity seen now, so as much as the Torys complain about the burden from the regions it was very much their own doing.
We're just fecked, due to government subsidised industries used to keep the unionists sweet for all those years, not to mention an over weight civil service.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Tony Baloney on September 19, 2014, 08:40:36 AM
84.6% turnout so can't blame voter apathy. Didn't send them homewards to think again. :-[
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 08:41:49 AM
No vote never in doubt.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 08:54:06 AM
Those 'Yes' screams...that moment in Braveheart when William Wallace realised he was shopped by his own :'(
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 08:58:25 AM
There was a lot of smarm from the No campaign in the build-up to the vote about how the Shetlands and the Orkneys would secede from an independent Scotland. Given the seriousness with which they treated this possibility, can we expect them to support a campaign for an independent Glasgow?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 09:02:35 AM
Subsidies to Northern Ireland will be fine. All part of the imperial dividend.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 09:06:20 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.

While issues like recent conflict, national identity and history would be major players in a decision on the constitutional future of the North there are lessons here for those pushing for a "border poll".  In a  choice between Change and Status Quo or the Divil You Know v. the Divil You Don't, the Status Quo will always be difficult to shift even if people are unhappy with it.  That will apply here in the North too.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 09:09:16 AM
Even from a basic day to day economic perspective as it stands though. There seem to be a lot of parallels drawn to both situations but a lot of people seem to miss the fact there are a whole 26 counties that need to accept us too...
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 09:10:15 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.

It's something like 1.8% of the Union!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Under Lights on September 19, 2014, 09:18:46 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.

Exactly this.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Shamrock Shore on September 19, 2014, 09:21:58 AM
GPO it is so!

Anyone coming?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: OakleafCounty on September 19, 2014, 09:22:50 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 09:09:16 AM
Even from a basic day to day economic perspective as it stands though. There seem to be a lot of parallels drawn to both situations but a lot of people seem to miss the fact there are a whole 26 counties that need to accept us too...

We're a long way away from worrying about that. First we need nationalism/republicanism to be the dominant force in Stormont for a while before even having a vote in the north never mind the Republic.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 09:23:51 AM
Quote from: Under Lights on September 19, 2014, 09:18:46 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.

Exactly this.

I don't buy that. Perfect is the enemy of good. If the Scots are saying everything must be just right before they take the plunge, they're never going to take it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 09:32:50 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 09:23:51 AM
Quote from: Under Lights on September 19, 2014, 09:18:46 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.

Exactly this.

I don't buy that. Perfect is the enemy of good. If the Scots are saying everything must be just right before they take the plunge, they're never going to take it.

+1 this was their opportunity and they inevitably bottled it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 09:40:52 AM
If you make a vote for something which will have a massive impact on your life - and that could be positive or negative - then you'd want to be sure that all the is were dotted and ts crossed. They fell a bit short of that. The pound debate illustrated that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 09:45:07 AM
The no campaign could have sat at home with their feet up and they still would have won.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 09:47:11 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 09:40:52 AM
If you make a vote for something which will have a massive impact on your life - and that could be positive or negative - then you'd want to be sure that all the is were dotted and ts crossed. They fell a bit short of that. The pound debate illustrated that.

I don't see how that contradicts my point. For example, the SNP can't give cast-iron reassurances about oil revenues. They can't be sure how much is down there or what the price will be in the future. If you're of such a mind as to want all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, you'll always find a missing dot/cross.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: lynchbhoy on September 19, 2014, 09:57:18 AM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 08:54:06 AM
Those 'Yes' screams...that moment in Braveheart when William Wallace realised he was shopped by his own :'(
Scotland has always been a nation of backstabbers
various other films show glimpses of the historical betrayals - eg kidnapped, rob roy etc

nothing worse than being shopped by your own !!

what was it again
'never trust a lowlander or a McDonald' (or was it Campbell)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 09:57:51 AM
(http://lh5.ggpht.com/-S9rc2gulg24/T5hO-iHSNFI/AAAAAAAAEyM/_w2rkjuLJo0/WWallaceBetrayed_thumb12.jpg?imgmax=800)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 10:02:20 AM
(https://i.imgflip.com/c9f9c.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 10:14:24 AM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on September 19, 2014, 09:57:18 AM
Scotland has always been a nation of backstabbers
various other films show glimpses of the historical betrayals - eg kidnapped, rob roy etc

;D
I've never trusted cats since I first saw Tom & Jerry.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 10:17:02 AM
You should never trust 'media experts' on Newstalk either :)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 10:20:56 AM
'Media consultant', please. And I didn't trust him. I just told yiz what he said.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 10:22:32 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 10:20:56 AM
'Media consultant', please. And I didn't trust him. I just told yiz what he said.

(http://www.troll.me/images/disaster-girl/see-i-told-you-so.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 10:22:47 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 09:47:11 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 09:40:52 AM
If you make a vote for something which will have a massive impact on your life - and that could be positive or negative - then you'd want to be sure that all the is were dotted and ts crossed. They fell a bit short of that. The pound debate illustrated that.

I don't see how that contradicts my point. For example, the SNP can't give cast-iron reassurances about oil revenues. They can't be sure how much is down there or what the price will be in the future. If you're of such a mind as to want all the i's dotted and the t's crossed, you'll always find a missing dot/cross.

Well let's take an example of being a retired former government worker who's got a pension coming in from the government.

Said person asks local politician what in the event of a yes happens to his pension. Said local politician has no answer. It's things like that.

The SNP or the tories can give no assurances on oil revenues but that's the future. Yes or no can't control that. That's nothing to do with planning - that's a variable to anyone.

The question of will what I am entitled to currently still be available if we get a yes was not firmly answered in cases like what I say here.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 10:30:00 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 10:22:47 AM
Well let's take an example of being a retired former government worker who's got a pension coming in from the government.

Said person asks local politician what in the event of a yes happens to his pension. Said local politician has no answer. It's things like that.

The SNP or the tories can give no assurances on oil revenues but that's the future. Yes or no can't control that. That's nothing to do with planning - that's a variable to anyone.

The question of will what I am entitled to currently still be available if we get a yes was not firmly answered in cases like what I say here.

In your example, we have someone who might vote Yes if nothing changes. If this is typical of the mindset of your average Scot then they're never going to vote for independence, and no amount of legwork on the part of Alex Salmond et al is going to change that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 10:39:53 AM
I don't agree. The very basic thing the guy needed to offer was parity with what people have got now. The fact that a lot of people had questions about things where parity wasn't guaranteed turned a lot of voters off.

A few years more legwork from Salmond et al would have changed that. I'm not talking 100% of absolutely every possible corner case scenario covered here.  The currency thing to me highlighted that they weren't ready.

The guy did a great job - don't get me wrong - and will probably change the face of a lot of things.  A couple of years more with a more fleshed out plan and he could have changed it even more.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 10:45:11 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 10:39:53 AM
I don't agree. The very basic thing the guy needed to offer was parity with what people have got now. The fact that a lot of people had questions about things where parity wasn't guaranteed turned a lot of voters off.

A few years more legwork from Salmond et al would have changed that. I'm not talking 100% of absolutely every possible corner case scenario covered here.  The currency thing to me highlighted that they weren't ready.

The guy did a great job - don't get me wrong - and will probably change the face of a lot of things.  A couple of years more with a more fleshed out plan and he could have changed it even more.

They've been at it for 18 months. Would three years have been enough? Maybe five years and there would have been 100% support for independence. If assurance of parity is the bottom line for your vote, logically you should vote No. That's the biggest assurance of parity.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 10:46:26 AM
If they are to vote for change, then they have to accept, em, change. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 10:48:49 AM
Yes, but the question is 'What will change?'. And they've decided that the price of change, or the uncertainty over some elements, is not worth it.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 10:52:16 AM
What a pity the Scots didn't have the courage to see it through.
We'll see now if CameronCleggMilliband can deliver on their promises when the English and Welsh MPs start to kick up a fuss.
If they don't I wonder how many no voters will be sorry.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:01:17 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 10:45:11 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 10:39:53 AM
I don't agree. The very basic thing the guy needed to offer was parity with what people have got now. The fact that a lot of people had questions about things where parity wasn't guaranteed turned a lot of voters off.

A few years more legwork from Salmond et al would have changed that. I'm not talking 100% of absolutely every possible corner case scenario covered here.  The currency thing to me highlighted that they weren't ready.

The guy did a great job - don't get me wrong - and will probably change the face of a lot of things.  A couple of years more with a more fleshed out plan and he could have changed it even more.

They've been at it for 18 months. Would three years have been enough? Maybe five years and there would have been 100% support for independence. If assurance of parity is the bottom line for your vote, logically you should vote No. That's the biggest assurance of parity.

Granted it's the biggest assurance of parity however ultimately people will vote for something which they think will make their lives better. If they can't guarantee parity then how can they have faith in them saying things will get better? To quite a few people who voted yes I think it was a case of things can't get any worse not things will get better.

Three years may not have been enough and it may have needed closer to ten but that's all pretty irrelevant now.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:05:26 AM
The thing about long campaigns is that things change - 'events, dear boy, events' as Harold Macmillan was supposed to have said. Had the SNP started their referendum campaign in 2007, they would have been full steam ahead to join the euro. By 2009, such a plan would have been their ruination. The Scots are not willing to take a chance on independence, and while there's nothing irrational about it you have to feel mildly exasperated at how many of them are justifying their decision using the rhetoric of fumbling in a greasy till. No doubt the same people who find inspiration in fireworks and gun salutes at Murrayfield. About the only foreseeable event that would cause them to change their mind at this point would be Britain dropping out of the EU in 2017. Maybe Alex Salmond should be encouraging his party to vote for Ukip!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 11:08:01 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 10:48:49 AM
Yes, but the question is 'What will change?'. And they've decided that the price of change, or the uncertainty over some elements, is not worth it.

Well I hope they stop wittering about freedom etc. from now on. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:10:49 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 11:08:01 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 10:48:49 AM
Yes, but the question is 'What will change?'. And they've decided that the price of change, or the uncertainty over some elements, is not worth it.

Well I hope they stop wittering about freedom etc. from now on.

Indeed. I've never been particularly impressed by their Tartan Army schtick when the Sassenachs come to town for any sporting event. Now it needs to be called out for the plazzy patriotism that it is.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 11:13:40 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:05:26 AM
The thing about long campaigns is that things change - 'events, dear boy, events' as Harold Macmillan was supposed to have said. Had the SNP started their referendum campaign in 2007, they would have been full steam ahead to join the euro. By 2009, such a plan would have been their ruination. The Scots are not willing to take a chance on independence, and while there's nothing irrational about it you have to feel mildly exasperated at how many of them are justifying their decision using the rhetoric of fumbling in a greasy till. No doubt the same people who find inspiration in fireworks and gun salutes at Murrayfield. About the only foreseeable event that would cause them to change their mind at this point would be Britain dropping out of the EU in 2017. Maybe Alex Salmond should be encouraging his party to vote for Ukip!

This referendum was at a poor time, the recession made cash issues more to the forefront of peoples minds, and there are international tensions of one sort and another. There is a Tyrone man on IrishEconomy.ie who reckons that the Irish economic growth figures announced yesterday had been suppressed in recent months so as not to scare the horses in Alban. Looking at the odds for the Scottish Referendum I was shocked to find that the odds for the UK leaving the EU were much more like even money. One wonders how that campaign would proceed with turnout etc, I imagine a lot of English people would just plump not to change when the time comes. But the campaign might expose substantial regional differences and stir things up.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:15:46 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:05:26 AM
The thing about long campaigns is that things change - 'events, dear boy, events' as Harold Macmillan was supposed to have said. Had the SNP started their referendum campaign in 2007, they would have been full steam ahead to join the euro. By 2009, such a plan would have been their ruination. The Scots are not willing to take a chance on independence, and while there's nothing irrational about it you have to feel mildly exasperated at how many of them are justifying their decision using the rhetoric of fumbling in a greasy till. No doubt the same people who find inspiration in fireworks and gun salutes at Murrayfield. About the only foreseeable event that would cause them to change their mind at this point would be Britain dropping out of the EU in 2017. Maybe Alex Salmond should be encouraging his party to vote for Ukip!

I agree with most of what you say however there are things you can't control and things you can control and they weren't fully on top of the things you can.

I don't fully buy the theory that they chickened out to be honest(not from you but in general). A massive amount of people voted for independence. Yes ~10% more voted against it however at the beginning of this no one could have envisaged.

When it boils down to it the majority of people just want to look after their own and their families welfare.  If it can't be guaranteed then it won't be for them.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 11:18:04 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:10:49 AM
Quote from: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 11:08:01 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 10:48:49 AM
Yes, but the question is 'What will change?'. And they've decided that the price of change, or the uncertainty over some elements, is not worth it.

Well I hope they stop wittering about freedom etc. from now on.

Indeed. I've never been particularly impressed by their Tartan Army schtick when the Sassenachs come to town for any sporting event. Now it needs to be called out for the plazzy patriotism that it is.

Well in fairness 45% of them, and with the turnout you can almost say that exactly which is unusual, voted for independence. Maybe they are the crew singing about bannockburn and sassenachs.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:21:54 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:15:46 AM
I agree with most of what you say however there are things you can't control and things you can control and they weren't fully on top of the things you can.

I don't fully buy the theory that they chickened out to be honest(not from you but in general). A massive amount of people voted for independence. Yes ~10% more voted against it however at the beginning of this no one could have envisaged.

When it boils down to it the majority of people just want to look after their own and their families welfare.  If it can't be guaranteed then it won't be for them.

You can accept that a person voted rationally for what they perceived to be their own interests and also believe they chickened out. It's pretty much the definition of chickening out. I would have more respect for someone who voted No because they wished to remain Scottish and British than someone who voted No because of potential pension ramifactions.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
The pension ramifications is only one thing though. Things like that question confidence. People will ask if  this guy can't guarantee my pension then how can he guarantee my family's welfare, my health gets looked after etc etc. Things like that should not be unknowns. The fact that they are is (or was) a worry to a lot of people.

If a person really believed in scottish independence and voted no then they chickened out. If they had to be swayed by a political campaign then no they didn't chicken out. It's really a sweeping generalisation to suggest the whole nation chickened out.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 11:34:12 AM
Quote from: BennyHarp on September 18, 2014, 10:19:51 PM
Adam Boulton just reckoned that there was over 100% turn out of voters in some areas. Either he's getting a bit carried away or Sinn Fein must have been orcastrating the voters.

CNN seems to think so too.
(https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/8322373632/h6C86289D/)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:35:38 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
The pension ramifications is only one thing though. Things like that question confidence. People will ask if  this guy can't guarantee my pension then how can he guarantee my family's welfare, my health gets looked after etc etc. Things like that should not be unknowns. The fact that they are is (or was) a worry to a lot of people.

If a person really believed in scottish independence and voted no then they chickened out. If they had to be swayed by a political campaign then no they didn't chicken out. It's really a sweeping generalisation to suggest the whole nation chickened out.

There is such a thing as national characteristics. Shared history, myths, institutions, lingo, to name but a few. With that in mind, I think it is fair to note that the Scots have a shared love of antagonism towards the English. I can see it in ourselves. It's mostly benign, as is ours these days, but when set against the vote yesterday I think I'm entitled to look at the Scottish and see a people who want to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:35:57 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 11:34:12 AM
Quote from: BennyHarp on September 18, 2014, 10:19:51 PM
Adam Boulton just reckoned that there was over 100% turn out of voters in some areas. Either he's getting a bit carried away or Sinn Fein must have been orcastrating the voters.

CNN seems to think so too.
(https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/8322373632/h6C86289D/)

Giving it 110%!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:35:38 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
The pension ramifications is only one thing though. Things like that question confidence. People will ask if  this guy can't guarantee my pension then how can he guarantee my family's welfare, my health gets looked after etc etc. Things like that should not be unknowns. The fact that they are is (or was) a worry to a lot of people.

If a person really believed in scottish independence and voted no then they chickened out. If they had to be swayed by a political campaign then no they didn't chicken out. It's really a sweeping generalisation to suggest the whole nation chickened out.

There is such a thing as national characteristics. Shared history, myths, institutions, lingo, to name but a few. With that in mind, I think it is fair to note that the Scots have a shared love of antagonism towards the English. I can see it in ourselves. It's mostly benign, as is ours these days, but when set against the vote yesterday I think I'm entitled to look at the Scottish and see a portion of their people who want to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

I think that's more accurate. After all, how many of the 55% would be pure British Scots, I'd imagine a fair few.  It's only the 'Yay Scotland' brigade that voted No that your comment applies to. People who voted Yes should be immune, as should those who would never position themselves that way in the first place.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 19, 2014, 11:41:09 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:35:38 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
The pension ramifications is only one thing though. Things like that question confidence. People will ask if  this guy can't guarantee my pension then how can he guarantee my family's welfare, my health gets looked after etc etc. Things like that should not be unknowns. The fact that they are is (or was) a worry to a lot of people.

If a person really believed in scottish independence and voted no then they chickened out. If they had to be swayed by a political campaign then no they didn't chicken out. It's really a sweeping generalisation to suggest the whole nation chickened out.

There is such a thing as national characteristics. Shared history, myths, institutions, lingo, to name but a few. With that in mind, I think it is fair to note that the Scots have a shared love of antagonism towards the English. I can see it in ourselves. It's mostly benign, as is ours these days, but when set against the vote yesterday I think I'm entitled to look at the Scottish and see a portion of their people who want to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.
Cant have their Dundee Cake and eat it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 11:42:37 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 11:37:43 AM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:35:38 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
The pension ramifications is only one thing though. Things like that question confidence. People will ask if  this guy can't guarantee my pension then how can he guarantee my family's welfare, my health gets looked after etc etc. Things like that should not be unknowns. The fact that they are is (or was) a worry to a lot of people.

If a person really believed in scottish independence and voted no then they chickened out. If they had to be swayed by a political campaign then no they didn't chicken out. It's really a sweeping generalisation to suggest the whole nation chickened out.

There is such a thing as national characteristics. Shared history, myths, institutions, lingo, to name but a few. With that in mind, I think it is fair to note that the Scots have a shared love of antagonism towards the English. I can see it in ourselves. It's mostly benign, as is ours these days, but when set against the vote yesterday I think I'm entitled to look at the Scottish and see a portion of their people who want to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

I think that's more accurate. After all, how many of the 55% would be pure British Scots, I'd imagine a fair few.  It's only the 'Yay Scotland' brigade that voted No that your comment applies to. People who voted Yes should be immune, as should those who would never position themselves that way in the first place.

Ivor Cutler reckoned that the Scots got their brains from herring - I think he might have something there.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: tc_manchester on September 19, 2014, 11:44:22 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 08:57:33 AM
Irrespective of the no vote it still put the shits up Cameron. 45% is still a very large amount of people who want to leave "the union". It has to make them think.

Having talked to quite a few scots over the last while about this the general feeling was that it was too soon. The feeling was also that Salmond had pushed on with it because he wanted it to be his legacy and if he had waited out a few years and fleshed all the finer detail out it would have gone through.

You have to wonder would it impact the north. We are heavily subsidised and Scotland simply aren't. If questions start being asked then what would be done.
Regarding a border poll for the 6 counties Sinn Fein/SDLP need to be sure that the British Government will guarantee the block grant for 20 years. After all they have stated that they have no political or economic reason for being in Ireland. It's only because the majority of the population of the 6 counties wish to be aligned to Westminster. Therefore if a border poll is to be held and the British hold to the 'political and economic' line then they have to take the economic worry out of the question otherwise it will be a skewed poll between those who believe in a United Ireland and those who believe in the crown and the half crown.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 11:45:30 AM
In case you didn't believe me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWJT7HK4Mlc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWJT7HK4Mlc)

Ivor Cutler - Life in a Scotch Sitting Room
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:46:54 AM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 11:37:43 AM
I think that's more accurate. After all, how many of the 55% would be pure British Scots, I'd imagine a fair few.  It's only the 'Yay Scotland' brigade that voted No that your comment applies to. People who voted Yes should be immune, as should those who would never position themselves that way in the first place.

That's fair enough.

I'm not in the humour to be fair this morning though >:(
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 11:48:29 AM
This guy knows it, modern day William Wallace shopped face..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29274018
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 11:52:40 AM
Common sense prevails.

The yes campaign was a shambles; I would argue only Sinn Fein has less of an understanding on economics. They done nothing to convince the people with something to lose, they would not be worse off if they voted for independence.

It's easy to be patriotic when you have nothing to lose and fcuk all else to occupy yourself with. Calling the no campaign negative and scare mongering for pointing out uncertainties is just a way of detracting from the fact, the yes campaign was crap. They had 18 months to prepare answers to all the questions but still trotted out the same responses. Better to be ruled from Westminster and keep the status quo than ruled by a set of numpties.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 11:55:50 AM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 11:52:40 AM
Common sense prevails.

The yes campaign was a shambles; I would argue only Sinn Fein has less of an understanding on economics. They done nothing to convince the people with something to lose, they would not be worse off if they voted for independence.

It's easy to be patriotic when you have nothing to lose and fcuk all else to occupy yourself with. Calling the no campaign negative and scare mongering for pointing out uncertainties is just a way of detracting from the fact, the yes campaign was crap. They had 18 months to prepare answers to all the questions but still trotted out the same responses. Better to be ruled from Westminster and keep the status quo than ruled by a set of numpties.

You mean better the numpty you know?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 11:57:18 AM
I think the SNP generally  are far ahead of SF in their understanding of economics, which isn't hard. However, it is difficult to put forward concrete proposals when the British government and the EU are basically saying that we are not going to talk about it until after the referendum. This means that there are many things which remain unclear.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:57:55 AM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 11:55:50 AM
You mean better the numpty you know?

If I'm being fair, I would admit to sympathy with the hundreds of thousands of Scots who share a country with people who look at David Cameron and think "better the numpty we know"...

(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-LHboVVyBV8o/T1Ce_6VUpKI/AAAAAAAAEw8/Liqnv6QUkAg/s1600/02.03.12-Steve-Bell-005.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 12:03:48 PM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 11:55:50 AM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 11:52:40 AM
Common sense prevails.

The yes campaign was a shambles; I would argue only Sinn Fein has less of an understanding on economics. They done nothing to convince the people with something to lose, they would not be worse off if they voted for independence.

It's easy to be patriotic when you have nothing to lose and fcuk all else to occupy yourself with. Calling the no campaign negative and scare mongering for pointing out uncertainties is just a way of detracting from the fact, the yes campaign was crap. They had 18 months to prepare answers to all the questions but still trotted out the same responses. Better to be ruled from Westminster and keep the status quo than ruled by a set of numpties.

You mean better the numpty you know?

Yes in a round about way  :P
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 12:12:31 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 11:57:18 AM
I think the SNP generally  are far ahead of SF in their understanding of economics, which isn't hard. However, it is difficult to put forward concrete proposals when the British government and the EU are basically saying that we are not going to talk about it until after the referendum. This means that there are many things which remain unclear.

There are school children far ahead of SF in their understanding of economics ffs.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 12:23:25 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 11:57:18 AM
I think the SNP generally  are far ahead of SF in their understanding of economics, which isn't hard. However, it is difficult to put forward concrete proposals when the British government and the EU are basically saying that we are not going to talk about it until after the referendum. This means that there are many things which remain unclear.

The British government categorically stated there would be no shared currency. The EU said they would not get automatic entry into the EU and no discussion until after the referendum (probably until independence). These are facts and not uncertainties which the yes campaign choose to ignore.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 12:32:33 PM
It was a bit like Atletico vs Real in the CL final. 1-0 with 5 minutes left. . Gordy Brown as Ronaldo. It went to extra time and everything.
Will be interesting to see the age split of nos. Could be a generational thing. Beidh aris ann.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:09:12 PM
The people spoke. Talk of chickening out etc.. is nonsense, everyone had their own decision to make & did so, reasons now are irrelevant.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on September 19, 2014, 01:10:25 PM
Thought the Yes campaign started to lose the momentum they were rapidly gaining when RBS and Lloyds said they'd relocate to London. That was a spectacular missed opportunity by Yes to say "These are banks that failed and then even squandered the bailouts from the taxpayers... let's not take economic advice from these crowd of ganststers." Can you imagine Anglo Irish Bank having that effect in Ireland? Instead they turned on the BBC and were portrayed as fanatics. Even though they were 100% right about the BBC. And their coverage in the early hours of the morning put me to sleep.

But bottom line, the Scots are a spineless lot. They need to dump the Tartan Army, proud Celt, Scotland the Brave lark. Scotland the Brave was ripped off from O'Donnell Abu anyway. They will forever more be just known as a little piece of England. Such a parcel of rogues as Robbie Burns would say.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:21:31 PM
The EU referendum further down the line has a greater potential to derail the Union. It will make clear the differences in the regions, to make generalisations - England likely to have a majority vote to leave, Scotland & Wales unlikely, NI is debatable & could fall on largely Sectarian clones as Unionism has no love for the EU (quelle surprise). The Cities of London & Birmingham clubbed together have the population of the other 3 countries of the union put together & could in theory cast enough votes to outvote 3 'pro-EU' countries and the whole of the UK has to go.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:22:42 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:09:12 PM
The people spoke. Talk of chickening out etc.. is nonsense, everyone had their own decision to make & did so, reasons now are irrelevant.

So once a vote is over,  there's no point discussing the reasons the people spoke because, uh, the people spoke?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 01:23:18 PM
Frankie Boyle:  "I should have expected this, for if you'd asked me to estimate how many cnuts there were in Scotland I'd have said about 2 million"
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 19, 2014, 01:28:00 PM
It's only a matter of time.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 01:29:15 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:22:42 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:09:12 PM
The people spoke. Talk of chickening out etc.. is nonsense, everyone had their own decision to make & did so, reasons now are irrelevant.

So once a vote is over,  there's no point discussing the reasons the people spoke because, uh, the people spoke?

Pretty much so.  Private relief for the Queen on the news, she much have flipped one off when the result came in.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:29:45 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:22:42 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:09:12 PM
The people spoke. Talk of chickening out etc.. is nonsense, everyone had their own decision to make & did so, reasons now are irrelevant.

So once a vote is over,  there's no point discussing the reasons the people spoke because, uh, the people spoke?
Did I stop the thread or something? Discuss away - as I have already since done.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:29:45 PM
Did I stop the thread or something? Discuss away - as I have already since done.

No, but you say that talk of chickening out is 'nonsense' because people had their own decision to make. It strikes me as rather circular.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 01:38:57 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:29:45 PM
Did I stop the thread or something? Discuss away - as I have already since done.

No, but you say that talk of chickening out is 'nonsense' because people had their own decision to make. It strikes me as rather circular.

It strikes me of factual.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:39:53 PM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 01:38:57 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:29:45 PM
Did I stop the thread or something? Discuss away - as I have already since done.

No, but you say that talk of chickening out is 'nonsense' because people had their own decision to make. It strikes me as rather circular.

It strikes me of factual.

Water is wet. Now there's factual for you.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:54:04 PM
Circular how?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 19, 2014, 01:54:29 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:39:53 PM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 01:38:57 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:29:45 PM
Did I stop the thread or something? Discuss away - as I have already since done.

No, but you say that talk of chickening out is 'nonsense' because people had their own decision to make. It strikes me as rather circular.

It strikes me of factual.

Water is wet. Now there's factual for you.
Wet Wet  Wet on the other hand are dry hun bastards.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 02:01:27 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:39:53 PM
Quote from: Zip Code on September 19, 2014, 01:38:57 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 01:38:03 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:29:45 PM
Did I stop the thread or something? Discuss away - as I have already since done.

No, but you say that talk of chickening out is 'nonsense' because people had their own decision to make. It strikes me as rather circular.

It strikes me of factual.

Water is wet. Now there's factual for you.

You sure.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 02:02:53 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:54:04 PM
Circular how?

Because it seems to be me that you are saying that because people have a decision to make, they can't be said to have chickened out. That could be applied to any choice. Golfer has 20-foot downhill putt to force a playoff in the Masters but opts to come up short to ensure he doesn't end up finishing third? Hey, don't say he chickened out, he had a decision to make! A lot of Scots will talk the talk about hating the English and wrapping themselves in the saltire and wearing kilts at weddings and sing laments about the cruel Sassenachs when filled with Glenfiddich. But when they went into the polling booth, they were suddenly overwhelmed with concern over not having a lender of last resort in the event of a run on banks. For me, that's you-know-what.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: screenexile on September 19, 2014, 02:05:07 PM
The bottom line is that the Yes campaign's success was more the fact that the No campaign were f**king awful! The truth is they were expecting people to take a huge leap into the unknown and they were campaigning on dreams rather than reality.

Had they a blueprint for what an Independent Scotland would look like in terms of economics and healthcare at the basic level they may well have gotten over the line. People by and large aren't going to gamble with their families futures especially when there were so many unknowns out there!!!!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 02:06:27 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 11:35:38 AM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 11:27:47 AM
The pension ramifications is only one thing though. Things like that question confidence. People will ask if  this guy can't guarantee my pension then how can he guarantee my family's welfare, my health gets looked after etc etc. Things like that should not be unknowns. The fact that they are is (or was) a worry to a lot of people.

If a person really believed in scottish independence and voted no then they chickened out. If they had to be swayed by a political campaign then no they didn't chicken out. It's really a sweeping generalisation to suggest the whole nation chickened out.

There is such a thing as national characteristics. Shared history, myths, institutions, lingo, to name but a few. With that in mind, I think it is fair to note that the Scots have a shared love of antagonism towards the English. I can see it in ourselves. It's mostly benign, as is ours these days, but when set against the vote yesterday I think I'm entitled to look at the Scottish and see a people who want to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds.

You sure are. I'm also entitled to disagree but like you say the argument is circular so little point in it 8) I personally think it's a very sweeping generalisation but that's just IMO.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 02:06:54 PM
Quote from: screenexile on September 19, 2014, 02:05:07 PM
The bottom line is that the Yes campaign's success was more the fact that the No campaign were f**king awful! The truth is they were expecting people to take a huge leap into the unknown and they were campaigning on dreams rather than reality.

Had they a blueprint for what an Independent Scotland would look like in terms of economics and healthcare at the basic level they may well have gotten over the line. People by and large aren't going to gamble with their families futures especially when there were so many unknowns out there!!!!
Exactly
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 02:10:22 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 02:06:27 PM
You sure are. I'm also entitled to disagree but like you say the argument is circular so little point in it 8) I personally think it's a very sweeping generalisation but that's just IMO.

That's cool, I take your points.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Myles Na G. on September 19, 2014, 02:14:36 PM
Talk of the Yes campaign's vision of the future being full of uncertainties is a nonsense - it's the future we're talking about, stupid, of course there are going to be uncertainties. What about highlighting similar uncertainties in the No blueprint? I'm thinking of the fact that Scotland could find itself being dragged out of Europe in the very near future by UKIP, the Tory right wing and all their fellow travellers. How's that for uncertainty. The currency union and use of the pound was not an uncertainty. As Salmond pointed out, Scotland is the 2nd biggest market for the rest of the UK after the US. There is simply no way that, post referendum, the British govt would put tariff barriers or exchange rate worries in the way of its own businesses. Enlightened self interest would have prevailed. Likewise, Europe could not be seen to offer a carrot to Scotland before the referendum, as this would have been viewed as encouraging the breakup of the UK. Once the vote had been won, though, Scotland would have been ushered in as quickly as possible. It's a stable, wealthy country - why wouldn't Europe want it on board?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: screenexile on September 19, 2014, 02:22:51 PM
Quote from: Myles Na G. on September 19, 2014, 02:14:36 PM
Talk of the Yes campaign's vision of the future being full of uncertainties is a nonsense - it's the future we're talking about, stupid, of course there are going to be uncertainties. What about highlighting similar uncertainties in the No blueprint? I'm thinking of the fact that Scotland could find itself being dragged out of Europe in the very near future by UKIP, the Tory right wing and all their fellow travellers. How's that for uncertainty. The currency union and use of the pound was not an uncertainty. As Salmond pointed out, Scotland is the 2nd biggest market for the rest of the UK after the US. There is simply no way that, post referendum, the British govt would put tariff barriers or exchange rate worries in the way of its own businesses. Enlightened self interest would have prevailed. Likewise, Europe could not be seen to offer a carrot to Scotland before the referendum, as this would have been viewed as encouraging the breakup of the UK. Once the vote had been won, though, Scotland would have been ushered in as quickly as possible. It's a stable, wealthy country - why wouldn't Europe want it on board?

It's not nonsense because it's the way the No voters felt... I've spoken to quite a few Scots over the past week and all were in favour of Independence in theory but ultimately the Yes campaign did not convince them of the things you have pointed out above so they voted for the status quo.

People don't like to change too often and for many it was a case of better the devil you know than the devil you don't!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 02:23:40 PM
Anybody have any idea or suggestions what will happen when the English outvote the rest to leave the EU?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on September 19, 2014, 02:28:31 PM


QuoteQuote from: AZOffaly on Today at 02:37:48 PM

    If there was a vote in Northern Ireland only, where the proposal was to unite with the Republic of Ireland, would a high turnout be seen as good for the Yes campaign?

No. I'd think it would mean the opposite in that case, as there are probably more people who don't habitually use their franchise who would be on the No side in that one. That's my speculation anyway.

leave Milltown out of it, Scotland is different.
[/quote]

Now now, the vote here would be a lot worse than the 55/45 Scottish vote. If it came to a vote here I'd have no problems voting yes. But the amount of people who'd change their minds when they arrive at the booth would be telling.

I'd say a large percentage of the no voters (in Scotland) would be people on benefits, how else would they survive in Scotland without their handouts
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:30:43 PM
Lads, I'm struggling to understand the anger and disappointment felt on our side of the Irish Sea. I understand, maybe, the potential ramifications for the wee 6 if the UK started to break up, but I don't think Scotland's situation would determine anything either way on that front. (Although I'm sure the P&F bands with their Orange flags and bowler hats are delighted with the result).

I think the criticism of Scotland, and the Scots of being 'cowardly' or 'spineless' is over the top. I also think this notion that we should never hear again any talk about William Wallace, Flower of Scotland etc etc is way over the top.

The way I see it is you essentially had 3 camps.

1 - The Scots Nationalists. (Not to be confused with the SNP). These people have a very Scottish sense of identity, and are hugely proud of that identity and the whole Scottish culture, including those items above. They would have voted YES yesterday, even if they were unsure of the future, as they would face it with hope, determination and pride in a new independent Scotland.

2 - The Scots-British. These would be analogous to our own Unionist brethern. They feel themselves as British as anyone in Middlesex, Essex or Surrey. Granted a lot of them would support Scotland in sporting events against England, but only in the same way a brother would want to beat another brother. These identify as British, and always would. I believe this cohort would have voted NO, regardless of any promises of a prosperous future as a commonwealth, but independent, nation.

3 - The Waverers. This is where the game was won and lost. On the assumption that the camps in 1&2 were fairly evenly matched, or even weighted more towards the #1s, this is the bunch that the campaign was really aimed at. Proud of being Scots, but having nothing against the remainder of the UK, and quite comfortable having a bulwark of a big brother to prop them up if the need arises. This bunch would have had to be swayed that independence was good for them and their children, sustainable, and prosperous. This is what has failed.


So I don't think you can call the 45% of the Scottish Population, 1.6 million voters, spineless or not real Scots. At the end of the day, they did everything they could do, and I'm sure that accounts for practically everyone in #1 above.

Likewise, I don't think you can call the group #2 any of those things, as they would be unashamedly British in any case, and voting NO had more to do with their identity than being scared to go alone. They see no reason on earth why they would forsake their identity. Again, parallels with our own Unionists. You might say you don't want this bunch supporting Scotland in any sporting event, or proclaiming their culture, but that's their point. This Scottishness is part of their Britishness.

So, if we are going to slate anyone, and I don't think we should, we should be slating that percentage (unknown) who fall into group 3. The group that isn't emotionally invested in Nationhood to a sufficient extent to risk a period of financial instability or the removal of a huge buffer in the form of the UK. Cowardice is one charge that can be thrown at them, but maybe that's not accurate either. Maybe it's the case that the advantages weren't well sold to them.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 02:32:42 PM
Quote from: screenexile on September 19, 2014, 02:22:51 PM
It's not nonsense because it's the way the No voters felt... I've spoken to quite a few Scots over the past week and all were in favour of Independence in theory but ultimately the Yes campaign did not convince them of the things you have pointed out above so they voted for the status quo.

People don't like to change too often and for many it was a case of better the devil you know than the devil you don't!

What was it about the theory of independence that they liked?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 02:40:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:30:43 PM

The way I see it is you essentially had 3 camps.

1 - The Scots Nationalists. (Not to be confused with the SNP). These people have a very Scottish sense of identity, and are hugely proud of that identity and the whole Scottish culture, including those items above. They would have voted YES yesterday, even if they were unsure of the future, as they would face it with hope, determination and pride in a new independent Scotland.

2 - The Scots-British. These would be analogous to our own Unionist brethern. They feel themselves as British as anyone in Middlesex, Essex or Surrey. Granted a lot of them would support Scotland in sporting events against England, but only in the same way a brother would want to beat another brother. These identify as British, and always would. I believe this cohort would have voted NO, regardless of any promises of a prosperous future as a commonwealth, but independent, nation.

3 - The Waverers. This is where the game was won and lost. On the assumption that the camps in 1&2 were fairly evenly matched, or even weighted more towards the #1s, this is the bunch that the campaign was really aimed at. Proud of being Scots, but having nothing against the remainder of the UK, and quite comfortable having a bulwark of a big brother to prop them up if the need arises. This bunch would have had to be swayed that independence was good for them and their children, sustainable, and prosperous. This is what has failed.


1- 45%
2 and 3 - 25% + 30%.??

If/when we have a referendum in the 6 Cos are talking
30% yes to UI ( no matter what)
40%(at least) No ( no matter what)
and the other 30% decide the outcome on Economic/fear of the unknown grounds?

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:43:23 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 02:40:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:30:43 PM

The way I see it is you essentially had 3 camps.

1 - The Scots Nationalists. (Not to be confused with the SNP). These people have a very Scottish sense of identity, and are hugely proud of that identity and the whole Scottish culture, including those items above. They would have voted YES yesterday, even if they were unsure of the future, as they would face it with hope, determination and pride in a new independent Scotland.

2 - The Scots-British. These would be analogous to our own Unionist brethern. They feel themselves as British as anyone in Middlesex, Essex or Surrey. Granted a lot of them would support Scotland in sporting events against England, but only in the same way a brother would want to beat another brother. These identify as British, and always would. I believe this cohort would have voted NO, regardless of any promises of a prosperous future as a commonwealth, but independent, nation.

3 - The Waverers. This is where the game was won and lost. On the assumption that the camps in 1&2 were fairly evenly matched, or even weighted more towards the #1s, this is the bunch that the campaign was really aimed at. Proud of being Scots, but having nothing against the remainder of the UK, and quite comfortable having a bulwark of a big brother to prop them up if the need arises. This bunch would have had to be swayed that independence was good for them and their children, sustainable, and prosperous. This is what has failed.


1- 45%
2 and 3 - 25% + 30%.??

If/when we have a referendum in the 6 Cos are talking
30% yes to UI ( no matter what)
40%(at least) No ( no matter what)
and the other 30% decide the outcome on Economic/fear of the unknown grounds?

I'd imagine it would be along those lines, although it may be 35% versus 40% with 25% swing votes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 02:45:02 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 02:02:53 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 01:54:04 PM
Circular how?

Because it seems to be me that you are saying that because people have a decision to make, they can't be said to have chickened out. That could be applied to any choice. Golfer has 20-foot downhill putt to force a playoff in the Masters but opts to come up short to ensure he doesn't end up finishing third? Hey, don't say he chickened out, he had a decision to make! A lot of Scots will talk the talk about hating the English and wrapping themselves in the saltire and wearing kilts at weddings and sing laments about the cruel Sassenachs when filled with Glenfiddich. But when they went into the polling booth, they were suddenly overwhelmed with concern over not having a lender of last resort in the event of a run on banks. For me, that's you-know-what.
If that's your opinion, fine. It strikes me as disrespectful to the choices people have made. Maybe there's just more pro-union supporters than supporters of Independence as evidenced by yesterday's vote?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: haranguerer on September 19, 2014, 02:48:41 PM
Quote from: Myles Na G. on September 19, 2014, 02:14:36 PM
Talk of the Yes campaign's vision of the future being full of uncertainties is a nonsense - it's the future we're talking about, stupid, of course there are going to be uncertainties. What about highlighting similar uncertainties in the No blueprint? I'm thinking of the fact that Scotland could find itself being dragged out of Europe in the very near future by UKIP, the Tory right wing and all their fellow travellers. How's that for uncertainty. The currency union and use of the pound was not an uncertainty. As Salmond pointed out, Scotland is the 2nd biggest market for the rest of the UK after the US. There is simply no way that, post referendum, the British govt would put tariff barriers or exchange rate worries in the way of its own businesses. Enlightened self interest would have prevailed. Likewise, Europe could not be seen to offer a carrot to Scotland before the referendum, as this would have been viewed as encouraging the breakup of the UK. Once the vote had been won, though, Scotland would have been ushered in as quickly as possible. It's a stable, wealthy country - why wouldn't Europe want it on board?

This is true
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on September 19, 2014, 02:50:33 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 02:40:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:30:43 PM

The way I see it is you essentially had 3 camps.

1 - The Scots Nationalists. (Not to be confused with the SNP). These people have a very Scottish sense of identity, and are hugely proud of that identity and the whole Scottish culture, including those items above. They would have voted YES yesterday, even if they were unsure of the future, as they would face it with hope, determination and pride in a new independent Scotland.

2 - The Scots-British. These would be analogous to our own Unionist brethern. They feel themselves as British as anyone in Middlesex, Essex or Surrey. Granted a lot of them would support Scotland in sporting events against England, but only in the same way a brother would want to beat another brother. These identify as British, and always would. I believe this cohort would have voted NO, regardless of any promises of a prosperous future as a commonwealth, but independent, nation.

3 - The Waverers. This is where the game was won and lost. On the assumption that the camps in 1&2 were fairly evenly matched, or even weighted more towards the #1s, this is the bunch that the campaign was really aimed at. Proud of being Scots, but having nothing against the remainder of the UK, and quite comfortable having a bulwark of a big brother to prop them up if the need arises. This bunch would have had to be swayed that independence was good for them and their children, sustainable, and prosperous. This is what has failed.


1- 45%
2 and 3 - 25% + 30%.??

If/when we have a referendum in the 6 Cos are talking
30% yes to UI ( no matter what)
40%(at least) No ( no matter what)
and the other 30% decide the outcome on Economic/fear of the unknown grounds?

I'd say there would only be around 20% undecided
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 02:54:56 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 02:45:02 PM
If that's your opinion, fine. It strikes me as disrespectful to the choices people have made. Maybe there's just more pro-union supporters than supporters of Independence as evidenced by yesterday's vote?

Sure, and I can respect someone who genuinely feels British and Scottish and doesn't wish the r(ump)UK to become a foreign country. I mentioned Alex Massie in a previous comment who has made a tremendous case for the emotional attachment of the Union. What I can't respect, and I have no doubt the number of people who fall into this category run into tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands, is the Braveheart-loving bullshitters who know the dates of Bannockburn and Culloden and think the former PM is called Tony Bliar, but when they went into the polling booth suddenly worried that their giro might bounce. I'm exaggerating the grotesque nature of these people - but not by much. And it was they who swung the vote.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 02:59:52 PM
Maybe they all did vote Yes, but were simply outvoted?

Get out of that one Rommel :D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 03:03:10 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:43:23 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 02:40:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 19, 2014, 02:30:43 PM

The way I see it is you essentially had 3 camps.

1 - The Scots Nationalists. (Not to be confused with the SNP). These people have a very Scottish sense of identity, and are hugely proud of that identity and the whole Scottish culture, including those items above. They would have voted YES yesterday, even if they were unsure of the future, as they would face it with hope, determination and pride in a new independent Scotland.

2 - The Scots-British. These would be analogous to our own Unionist brethern. They feel themselves as British as anyone in Middlesex, Essex or Surrey. Granted a lot of them would support Scotland in sporting events against England, but only in the same way a brother would want to beat another brother. These identify as British, and always would. I believe this cohort would have voted NO, regardless of any promises of a prosperous future as a commonwealth, but independent, nation.

3 - The Waverers. This is where the game was won and lost. On the assumption that the camps in 1&2 were fairly evenly matched, or even weighted more towards the #1s, this is the bunch that the campaign was really aimed at. Proud of being Scots, but having nothing against the remainder of the UK, and quite comfortable having a bulwark of a big brother to prop them up if the need arises. This bunch would have had to be swayed that independence was good for them and their children, sustainable, and prosperous. This is what has failed.


1- 45%
2 and 3 - 25% + 30%.??

If/when we have a referendum in the 6 Cos are talking
30% yes to UI ( no matter what)
40%(at least) No ( no matter what)
and the other 30% decide the outcome on Economic/fear of the unknown grounds?

I'd imagine it would be along those lines, although it may be 35% versus 40% with 25% swing votes.

I think you're both over estimating the automatic Yes to a UI.  I'd see it as:

20% (on a good day) "Yes" no matter what - 10% Hate The English/Prods Bigots and 10% with an emotional attachment to a UI (like myself)

25% "No" no matter what (cos they're nasty, vicious bigots)

20% "No" because we're financially better off in the UK (even it it were shown in black and white that this wasn't the case) and it's really a fig leaf to disguise the fact that deep down they're nasty, vicious bigots too.

10% "No" - NI is a great wee country, why can't we all just get along, it's a minority spoiling it for everyone else?? - Alliance Party and Rory McIlroys

25% - The "Northern Irish" mostly Taigs but who gives a f**k what they think as we're already at 55% "NO!!"

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 03:06:40 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 02:59:52 PM
Maybe they all did vote Yes, but were simply outvoted?

Get out of that one Rommel :D

No, I'm certain that not ALL of the type I'm describing voted Yes. If they did, then the No campaign really did waste their time by appealing to them.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Syferus on September 19, 2014, 03:08:29 PM
The dance was nice while it lasted. A shift in the niteclub stalls was all it amounted to in the end.

It would have been an interesting case study to compare how an independent Celtic nation would be formed in the early 21st century as opposed to the early 20th century. Beyond riling up unionists it mattered little with regards the situation in the north.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 03:20:46 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 02:23:40 PM
Anybody have any idea or suggestions what will happen when the English outvote the rest to leave the EU?

All the "better together" arguments can be applied to the Tory/UKIP notion that leaving the EU will be better than my little pony.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 03:42:59 PM
It'll be some craic in the event of a border poll when both sides are called "Better Together"
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 03:45:27 PM
Quote from: Billys Boots on September 19, 2014, 11:45:30 AM
In case you didn't believe me:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWJT7HK4Mlc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWJT7HK4Mlc)

Ivor Cutler - Life in a Scotch Sitting Room

Speaking of Scottish Poets ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ0vsjFFBxc (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQ0vsjFFBxc)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 03:55:03 PM
Quote from: Syferus on September 19, 2014, 03:08:29 PM
The dance was nice while it lasted. A shift in the niteclub stalls was all it amounted to in the end.

It would have been an interesting case study to compare how an independent Celtic nation would be formed in the early 21st century as opposed to the early 20th century. Beyond riling up unionists it mattered little with regards the situation in the north.
No. Scotland is in a process. It'll take more time but they'll go for it eventually.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 04:01:59 PM
One of the more noteworthy things about the vote was who voted no. Glasgow and hinterland were very strong.
Labour voters a lot of them. Loads of people not happy with the economic system. Middleclass Scots stayed union.

Politicians normally keep a lid  on working class energy but it's great to see it unleashed. The establishment really panicked last week.

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-29152398
"That was one of the big moments for me, watching the blue-collar screening of the movie, The Spy Who Loved Me, and having the reaction of the crowd at the theatre when Jaws popped out of the ocean, survived and swam away. There were hoots and howling, applause. I couldn't believe it."
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 04:13:26 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 03:06:40 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 02:59:52 PM
Maybe they all did vote Yes, but were simply outvoted?

Get out of that one Rommel :D

No, I'm certain that not ALL of the type I'm describing voted Yes. If they did, then the No campaign really did waste their time by appealing to them.
They targeted the wrong stereotype?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 04:17:45 PM
Salmond to stand down as FM in November
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 04:18:04 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 04:13:26 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 03:06:40 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 02:59:52 PM
Maybe they all did vote Yes, but were simply outvoted?

Get out of that one Rommel :D

No, I'm certain that not ALL of the type I'm describing voted Yes. If they did, then the No campaign really did waste their time by appealing to them.
They targeted the wrong stereotype?

They targeted the right stereotype.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 04:19:25 PM
Quote from: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 04:17:45 PM
Salmond to stand down as FM in November
First minister says he will stand down in November when new SNP leader will be chosen, but adds 'for Scotland the campaign continues and dream shall never die'

channeling this , which was just before the moment when financialisation took over and Thatcher and Reagan implemented the programme that crashed in 2008 , which also led to the Scottish referendum
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5cKYckTWEM
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 04:32:17 PM
WTF relevance is a border poll to the Scottish independence vote... It would only be relevant if the 6 counties of the North was running a referendum on independence, which would never happen as Thatcher would be better than those cnuts at Stormont.

The question on the United Ireland is completely different as it not just the decision of people in the 6 counties.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AQMP on September 19, 2014, 04:35:40 PM
Salmond claims that in a phone call to Cameron today Cameron could not commit to enacting the promised wider powers for Scotland by March of next year as laid out by Gordon Brown.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 04:40:30 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 04:32:17 PM
WTF relevance is a border poll to the Scottish independence vote... It would only be relevant if the 6 counties of the North was running a referendum on independence, which would never happen as Thatcher would be better than those cnuts at Stormont.

The question on the United Ireland is completely different as it not just the decision of people in the 6 counties.

It is
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 05:09:31 PM
Alex Salmond - rude, aggressive, patronising, arrogant, opportunistic, ruthless and conniving.

God, I'll miss him.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: macdanger2 on September 19, 2014, 05:20:00 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on September 19, 2014, 10:39:53 AM
I don't agree. The very basic thing the guy needed to offer was parity with what people have got now. The fact that a lot of people had questions about things where parity wasn't guaranteed turned a lot of voters off.

A few years more legwork from Salmond et al would have changed that. I'm not talking 100% of absolutely every possible corner case scenario covered here.  The currency thing to me highlighted that they weren't ready.

The guy did a great job - don't get me wrong - and will probably change the face of a lot of things.  A couple of years more with a more fleshed out plan and he could have changed it even more.

There is NO "currency" thing!! That was the biggest red herring of the campaign. There's nothing to stop any currency from pegging itself with any other
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 05:21:06 PM
I thought Cameron's speech today was interesting. He spoke about the 4 nations - Tans, Jocks, Welsh and Irish

I presume the unionists in TW6 were sickened to be classed as the Irish nation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dU8mGjrjJk
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 05:23:01 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 19, 2014, 05:09:31 PM
Alex Salmond - rude, aggressive, patronising, arrogant, opportunistic, ruthless and conniving.

God, I'll miss him.
Great description of a political CV
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 04:40:30 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 04:32:17 PM
WTF relevance is a border poll to the Scottish independence vote... It would only be relevant if the 6 counties of the North was running a referendum on independence, which would never happen as Thatcher would be better than those cnuts at Stormont.

The question on the United Ireland is completely different as it not just the decision of people in the 6 counties.

It is

You can try to convince yourself all you want but no it is not. It was entirely their own decision.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 05:30:42 PM
I think Salmond did cracking work to get 45%, considering that everyone from the EU to barrack Obama was agin him.
He'd make a good option for Mayo manager.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: gawa316 on September 19, 2014, 05:44:16 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 05:21:06 PM
I thought Cameron's speech today was interesting. He spoke about the 4 nations - Tans, Jocks, Welsh and Irish

I presume the unionists in TW6 were sickened to be classed as the Irish nation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dU8mGjrjJk

There no doubt is but not everyone thinks like that. I am proud to be classed Irish.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: rossiewanderer on September 19, 2014, 06:45:59 PM
Scotland was the only part of the United Kingdom that had anything like a vaguely feasible hope
of making it alone as an Independent country and It wisely chose to stay in the UK.
Sammond is a bit of a dreamer and did remarkably well to engineer himself into this position,Many of the Yes campaign supporters came across as crass with a large dollop of hippy thrown in for good measure.
   The implications of this referendum could well have repercussions for the other Union Countries as the people of England are growing tired of the unbalanced nature of funds thrown towards devolution governments.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 07:12:18 PM
May I respectfully point out to some people here that the United Kingdom State does NOT consist of FOUR COUNTRIES. ;)
It has 3 Countries plus two thirds of a Province of a fourth Country.
(Mind you I don't know if Cymru/Wales can be considered a Country but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt).

I see the timetable for extra powers for Scotland seems to be gone off the rails already. Who'd ever think that (British) Politicians wouldn't keep promises. ::)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 19, 2014, 07:16:04 PM
George square could be interesting tonight as both sides are having a stand off. Being described as tense.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: red hander on September 19, 2014, 07:27:12 PM
Braveheart my hole ... more like chickenhearts. And Flower Of Scotland as their national anthem, that's a joke as well  >:(
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 07:30:29 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 07:12:18 PM
May I respectfully point out to some people here that the United Kingdom State does NOT consist of FOUR COUNTRIES. ;)
It has 3 Countries plus two thirds of a Province of a fourth Country.
(Mind you I don't know if Cymru/Wales can be considered a Country but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt).


Actually, the UK submission to the UN states that the UK consists of 2 countries, a principality and a province.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jell 0 Biafra on September 19, 2014, 07:53:53 PM
Quote from: red hander on September 19, 2014, 07:27:12 PM
Braveheart my hole ... more like chickenhearts. And Flower Of Scotland as their national anthem, that's a joke as well  >:(

Weeds of Scotland?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 08:18:32 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 07:12:18 PM
May I respectfully point out to some people here that the United Kingdom State does NOT consist of FOUR COUNTRIES. ;)
It has 3 Countries plus two thirds of a Province of a fourth Country.
(Mind you I don't know if Cymru/Wales can be considered a Country but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt).

I see the timetable for extra powers for Scotland seems to be gone off the rails already. Who'd ever think that (British) Politicians wouldn't keep promises. ::)
He said 4 nations.
Same usage as rugby- it's not called the 6 countries ;)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 19, 2014, 08:24:47 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 19, 2014, 07:30:29 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 07:12:18 PM
May I respectfully point out to some people here that the United Kingdom State does NOT consist of FOUR COUNTRIES. ;)
It has 3 Countries plus two thirds of a Province of a fourth Country.
(Mind you I don't know if Cymru/Wales can be considered a Country but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt).


Actually, the UK submission to the UN states that the UK consists of 2 countries, a principality and a province.
It should be 6 counties of a province.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 19, 2014, 08:25:58 PM
Sorry to see Salmond go, an impressive politician, bit of a shyster, but that's hardly a drawback in the field. Sturgeon is a ringer for a woman I work with, going to be off-putting for a while.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 08:34:20 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 04:40:30 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 04:32:17 PM
WTF relevance is a border poll to the Scottish independence vote... It would only be relevant if the 6 counties of the North was running a referendum on independence, which would never happen as Thatcher would be better than those cnuts at Stormont.

The question on the United Ireland is completely different as it not just the decision of people in the 6 counties.

It is

You can try to convince yourself all you want but no it is not. It was entirely their own decision.

I don't need to convince myself of anything,it's in black and white when the majority of those living in the 6 counties vote to leave the UK it shall happen?It will be their decision and theirs alone.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 08:37:09 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 08:18:32 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 07:12:18 PM
May I respectfully point out to some people here that the United Kingdom State does NOT consist of FOUR COUNTRIES. ;)
It has 3 Countries plus two thirds of a Province of a fourth Country.
(Mind you I don't know if Cymru/Wales can be considered a Country but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt).

I see the timetable for extra powers for Scotland seems to be gone off the rails already. Who'd ever think that (British) Politicians wouldn't keep promises. ::)
He said 4 nations.
Same usage as rugby- it's not called the 6 countries ;)
Here it is again

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/70acc06a-3fdd-11e4-936b-00144feabdc0.html
"Britain has held on to its most precious commodity, Britishness – an inclusive identity that had united four proud nations in shared endeavor"

NI isn't a nation or even a province. It's a state of dysfunction.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2014, 08:46:50 PM
 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1ee0eb08-3f3d-11e4-a861-00144feabdc0.html

This is the start of a long constitutional wrangle for the UK

By Janan Ganesh
The union may have survived but in its present design it is possibly dead

The UK has survived, comfortably; the UK in its present design is dead, possibly. The outcome of the referendum on Scottish independence is as cloudy as that, even if its arithmetical result was decisive.
Scots affirmed the union by a margin of 55 per cent to 45 per cent. The rush of nationalism that showed in the polls at the turn of September was not enough; wavering voters cleaved to the status quo. A unionist campaign that was traduced by armchair strategists for subjugating romance to cold scepticism turned out to be effective enough. Pollsters say that unanswered questions about an independent Scotland's economy – its pensions, its lure to business and above all its currency – were what ultimately told.

Yet the result is the start of a constitutional wrangle, not the end of it. That more than two in five Scots – and their biggest city Glasgow – have voted to leave the UK is no small matter. The separatist movement will have to be assuaged with new powers for the Edinburgh parliament. The most sanguine unionists used to expect barely 30 per cent to plump for secession. Had Alex Salmond managed expectations more deftly of late, the nationalist first minister of Scotland would now be written up as a man of pluck and derring-do who pushed a 307-year union to the edge of oblivion. Instead, he has resigned, a visibly dejected man.

He wants his eventual successor to press Westminster to honour its big but unspecific promise of another round of devolution to Scotland. Fleshing this promise out, getting it through the UK parliament and then balancing it with new powers of self-rule for England could be the work of years, not months. There is no clean answer to the governance of the UK, no rationalist blueprint that pleases every part of a multinational kingdom in which one nation, England, is so preponderant. Imagine if Bavaria accounted for 85 per cent of Germany's population.

Still, the first few steps along this tortuous path can now be discerned. In a statement on Friday morning, David Cameron, radiant with relief, said he wanted English votes for English laws. This seems to mean that only MPs with constituencies in England can vote on legislation that affects only England: healthcare, education, aspects of welfare and possibly some fiscal policy. Because the Tories are the biggest party in England, the implications are heavy. It is possible that Ed Miliband will win next year's general election for Labour but have no majority on some basic matters of government.

A referendum that could have done for the prime minister has ended up putting his opponents in an invidious position. There is no answer to the English question that does not compromise Labour. True, the party would have won in 1997, 2001 and 2005 without Scottish seats but that was under the leadership of Tony Blair, who had freakish political talent and a laser eye for the centre ground. How many Blairs do Labour have?

Yet to oppose constitutional redress for the English would be incendiary. Labour could lose England, especially the south east, for a generation, as voters there come to see it as a high-handed Celtic lobby. Labour MPs such as John Denham and Frank Field are counseling their party against an outright rejection of Mr Cameron's proposal.

Of course, a proposal is just that. The prime minister must get it through parliament. But his hand is strong. Further devolution to Edinburgh has to happen because anything else would constitute a heinous breach of promises by all parties. And Tories will only approve this divestment of power in return for concomitant arrangements for England. The internal logic of the process is inescapable.

And if Labour scupper devolution to Scotland to avoid English self-rule, the political cost will not be borne by Mr Cameron. His party have little esteem to lose among Scots. Labour, by contrast, would risk evisceration at the hands of the Nationalists for failing to honour promises made by one of their own - Gordon Brown, the former prime minister - just last week. South of the border, meanwhile, the Tories would cast Labour as anti-democrats.

Those close to the prime minister say he is serious about English votes for English laws. Question his ability to deliver it and the reply is crisp: "He will. Don't worry about that." He has vigilant backbenchers to please and, in the UK Independence Party, a rival for the emerging English demos.

Mr Cameron is a conventional man who does unconventional things when he is cornered. His failure to win the last election outright led to the formation of Britain's first coalition government since the second world war. This referendum was another brush with political mortality and it has summoned another intrepid gesture from him. At stake is his grip on his party, and his place in history.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 09:06:17 PM
Quote from: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 08:34:20 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 04:40:30 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 04:32:17 PM
WTF relevance is a border poll to the Scottish independence vote... It would only be relevant if the 6 counties of the North was running a referendum on independence, which would never happen as Thatcher would be better than those cnuts at Stormont.

The question on the United Ireland is completely different as it not just the decision of people in the 6 counties.

It is

You can try to convince yourself all you want but no it is not. It was entirely their own decision.

I don't need to convince myself of anything,it's in black and white when the majority of those living in the 6 counties vote to leave the UK it shall happen?It will be their decision and theirs alone.

Leaving the UK is up to the 6 counties. Removal of the border will be 32 county vote. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 09:09:40 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 09:06:17 PM
Quote from: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 08:34:20 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 05:26:20 PM
Quote from: glens abu on September 19, 2014, 04:40:30 PM
Quote from: thebigfella on September 19, 2014, 04:32:17 PM
WTF relevance is a border poll to the Scottish independence vote... It would only be relevant if the 6 counties of the North was running a referendum on independence, which would never happen as Thatcher would be better than those cnuts at Stormont.

The question on the United Ireland is completely different as it not just the decision of people in the 6 counties.

It is

You can try to convince yourself all you want but no it is not. It was entirely their own decision.

I don't need to convince myself of anything,it's in black and white when the majority of those living in the 6 counties vote to leave the UK it shall happen?It will be their decision and theirs alone.

Leaving the UK is up to the 6 counties. Removal of the border will be 32 county vote.
Indeed. For a valid marriage both partners have to say I do.

The 6Cos. a Nation now it seems   :o!!!!! Pleeeease..... :-[
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 09:27:47 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 10:14:24 AM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on September 19, 2014, 09:57:18 AM
Scotland has always been a nation of backstabbers
various other films show glimpses of the historical betrayals - eg kidnapped, rob roy etc

;D
I've never trusted cats since I first saw Tom & Jerry.

Point of order: Rob Roy's a true story.

Carry on.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 09:30:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 19, 2014, 10:52:16 AM
What a pity the Scots didn't have the courage to see it through.
We'll see now if CameronCleggMilliband can deliver on their promises when the English and Welsh MPs start to kick up a fuss.
If they don't I wonder how many no voters will be sorry.

Couldn't see it being a problem. Government whips will push it through, and it only needs more Labour supporters than there are backbench rebels on the government side.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 10:17:20 PM
My post-mortem:


  • Not enough of a ground operation in Glasgow? They should have gotten more than 53.49% there. There can't be that many Rangers fans.

  • Not enough specifics on the future setup. Should have had their ducks lined up about a currency union with England and explained better that it's not up to the Bank of England or the British PM who uses their currency. A country can decide to use any currency it likes.

  • Not enough emphasis on Trident blocking the path of exploitation of oil reserves off the west coast. That would have been a slam-dunk with many voters but I never even heard about it until late in the campaign when a fella from some socialist party brought it up in an interview with Andrew Neil. Whether or not there's anything to it is irrelevant, the voters would have loved that. They hate nuclear weapons and they love oil revenue. This should have been the centrepiece of the campaign, not the North Sea where production has already peaked.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 11:41:47 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 19, 2014, 09:27:47 PM
Quote from: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 10:14:24 AM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on September 19, 2014, 09:57:18 AM
Scotland has always been a nation of backstabbers
various other films show glimpses of the historical betrayals - eg kidnapped, rob roy etc

;D
I've never trusted cats since I first saw Tom & Jerry.

Point of order: Rob Roy's a true story.

Carry on.

Like the 'Carry on' series you invoke, the 'Rob Roy' to which he referred was a film - a work of fiction.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ONeill on September 20, 2014, 12:42:21 AM
I was surprised to see people blur logic with the heart in predicting this outcome.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: lynchbhoy on September 20, 2014, 12:52:21 AM
Quote from: Hardy on September 19, 2014, 10:14:24 AM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on September 19, 2014, 09:57:18 AM
Scotland has always been a nation of backstabbers
various other films show glimpses of the historical betrayals - eg kidnapped, rob roy etc

;D
I've never trusted cats since I first saw Tom & Jerry.
Your point being ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: lynchbhoy on September 20, 2014, 12:54:25 AM
I'm happy enough with a 'no' vote. It preserves our own economic recovery as well as stopping the scots steal new foreign investment /jobs through low corporation tax etc
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: foxcommander on September 20, 2014, 06:32:28 AM
Will the jocks now stop singing "Flower of Scotland" as their anthem for sports. Would kinda seem wrong now.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Myles Na G. on September 20, 2014, 04:54:12 PM
Quote from: lynchbhoy on September 20, 2014, 12:54:25 AM
I'm happy enough with a 'no' vote. It preserves our own economic recovery as well as stopping the scots steal new foreign investment /jobs through low corporation tax etc
That's a valid point. I think the Dublin govt wouldn't have welcomed the competition an independent Scotland would have provided.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 20, 2014, 05:17:32 PM
Will the North now get the lower Corporation tax MartyPeter were looking for?
Cameron put them on hold till after the Scottish Referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on September 20, 2014, 06:21:46 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 20, 2014, 05:17:32 PM
Will the North now get the lower Corporation tax MartyPeter were looking for?
Cameron put them on hold till after the Scottish Referendum.
They can't manage what they have already.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 20, 2014, 08:54:44 PM
Quote from: Lamh Dhearg Alba on September 20, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
A lot of very depressed people in Scotland after the result.  However,  given we were up against the Westminster establishment,  the media (only 1 paper supported independence) and the financial world then 45% was a good achievement. I felt 2 weeks ago that we were going to do it but the yes majority poll scared Westminster and we had 10 days of blanket fear coverage with banks and major companies threatening to leave.  That swung people who were moving to yes back to no.

3/4 of over 65's voted no. Give it a few years and we'll be back.

The 'No' campaign made it clear that an independent Scotland would start life with 1 uncooperative neighbour to the south. The debate never moved to the question of what friends such an entity might have. Given that US investors will rush into places like Iraq, China, Georgia & Russia at the first hint of stability, an independent Scotland had little to worry about. Add to the obvious connections with Ireland and all of the EU and probably Canada and finance would not have been an issue. It was a complete red herring of an issue, even allowing for the national debt problem.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 20, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
There'll be some banter at the next Calcutta cup game.

O flower of Scotland
When will we see your like again
That fought and died for
Your wee bit hill and glen
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

The hills are bare now
And autumn leaves lie thick and still
O'er land that is lost now
Which those so dearly held
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

Those days are passed now
And in the past they must remain
But we can still rise now
And be the nation again
That stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 20, 2014, 09:29:31 PM
They can sing all God Save the Queen including the neglected verse


    Lord, grant that Marshal Wade,
    May by thy mighty aid,
    Victory bring.
    May he sedition hush,
    and like a torrent rush,
    Rebellious Scots to crush,
    God save The Queen.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on September 20, 2014, 09:34:21 PM
Quote from: Lamh Dhearg Alba on September 20, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
A lot of very depressed people in Scotland after the result.  However,  given we were up against the Westminster establishment,  the media (only 1 paper supported independence) and the financial world then 45% was a good achievement. I felt 2 weeks ago that we were going to do it but the yes majority poll scared Westminster and we had 10 days of blanket fear coverage with banks and major companies threatening to leave.  That swung people who were moving to yes back to no.

3/4 of over 65's voted no. Give it a few years and we'll be back.

Do you think there are many people in Scotland staring into their pint, wall, distance thinking 'what the f##k have I done!?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 20, 2014, 09:44:24 PM
I don't get this thinking at all,Yes had a miniscule Poll lead in one Poll with a margin of error of 6/8% built in, the No camp were ahead everywhere bar this. The vote went as expected, there are more Union supporters than Independence supporters - end of. Nobody let anybody down/choked/chickened out - IMO.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: lawnseed on September 20, 2014, 11:57:09 PM
the local orangies had a nice party night last night. lambegs, pipes, and flutes and bonnies and fireworks. heeeey hooo our kingdom has been saved as they danced into the night round their bonfire.. any excuse
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: andoireabu on September 21, 2014, 04:31:23 AM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 20, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
There'll be some banter at the next Calcutta cup game.

O flower of Scotland
When will we see your like again
That fought and died for
Your wee bit hill and glen
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

The hills are bare now
And autumn leaves lie thick and still
O'er land that is lost now
Which those so dearly held
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

Those days are passed now
And in the past they must remain
But we can still rise now
And be the nation again
That stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

why wouldnt any scottish yes voter sing this song after losing? When will they see another leader like salmond who got his party to the top and then got a referendum to choose there future and nearly won it. 6% isnt much to lose by in something this big. I wish we had someone here who cared enough about the country to actually try for it rather than taking a dig at each other nd carrying on with the nonsense. And they have definitely sent lilys army home to think again because there is no way the no campaign could win like that again and they have to try and win people over.

So the hills are bare now and they will be for a while but the want won't go away and those who dearly held it will speak again. Ireland had four home rule bills so why would scotland stop at one referendum? Sort out the shortfalls and then bring the arguements back to the table. There were a lot of undecided voters until the end so there are a lot of people who could be swayed and change the majority.

This referendum is passed now and in the past it must remain but they know how to win the next time where as lilys army have to think again about how to beat an idea that wont go away.

Fair play to scotland for even getting a vote for freedom and since it wasnt chosen it should be respected. But if the want is there again they should get votes until the want is gone. I wish I had the same chance for this place.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 21, 2014, 09:25:57 AM
Quote from: Lamh Dhearg Alba on September 21, 2014, 09:17:47 AM
Quote from: muppet on September 20, 2014, 08:54:44 PM
Quote from: Lamh Dhearg Alba on September 20, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
A lot of very depressed people in Scotland after the result.  However,  given we were up against the Westminster establishment,  the media (only 1 paper supported independence) and the financial world then 45% was a good achievement. I felt 2 weeks ago that we were going to do it but the yes majority poll scared Westminster and we had 10 days of blanket fear coverage with banks and major companies threatening to leave.  That swung people who were moving to yes back to no.

3/4 of over 65's voted no. Give it a few years and we'll be back.

The 'No' campaign made it clear that an independent Scotland would start life with 1 uncooperative neighbour to the south. The debate never moved to the question of what friends such an entity might have. Given that US investors will rush into places like Iraq, China, Georgia & Russia at the first hint of stability, an independent Scotland had little to worry about. Add to the obvious connections with Ireland and all of the EU and probably Canada and finance would not have been an issue. It was a complete red herring of an issue, even allowing for the national debt problem.

You don't need to tell me that but the fact was that there was blanket media coverage of banks and major companies saying they would pull out of Scotland.  Orchestrated by Westminster,  just like the warnings from foreign leaders and the likes of Barroso.  The yes campaign did their best to forward the alternative but in the face of a hostile media they struggled.  Social media was huge for them and it's no coincidence that the group they got trounced in were the over 65's who are most unlikely to be across social media, and most likely to believe what the establishment tells them.

As for bennydorano, if it was never on the cards why did Cameron,  Miliband and Clegg rush north 2 weeks ago? Why did Brown take over?  They were shitting themselves.  That intervention and the full on project fear that followed swung it in their favour.  Until then all the momentum was with yes.

They were absolutely shitting themselves that they would be the leaders which lost the Union. Especially Cameron.

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/09/20/1411169660215_Image_galleryImage_The_Vow_daily_record_rag_.JPG)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Myles Na G. on September 21, 2014, 09:30:11 AM
Quote from: andoireabu on September 21, 2014, 04:31:23 AM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 20, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
There'll be some banter at the next Calcutta cup game.

O flower of Scotland
When will we see your like again
That fought and died for
Your wee bit hill and glen
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

The hills are bare now
And autumn leaves lie thick and still
O'er land that is lost now
Which those so dearly held
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

Those days are passed now
And in the past they must remain
But we can still rise now
And be the nation again
That stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

why wouldnt any scottish yes voter sing this song after losing? When will they see another leader like salmond who got his party to the top and then got a referendum to choose there future and nearly won it. 6% isnt much to lose by in something this big. I wish we had someone here who cared enough about the country to actually try for it rather than taking a dig at each other nd carrying on with the nonsense. And they have definitely sent lilys army home to think again because there is no way the no campaign could win like that again and they have to try and win people over.

So the hills are bare now and they will be for a while but the want won't go away and those who dearly held it will speak again. Ireland had four home rule bills so why would scotland stop at one referendum? Sort out the shortfalls and then bring the arguements back to the table. There were a lot of undecided voters until the end so there are a lot of people who could be swayed and change the majority.

This referendum is passed now and in the past it must remain but they know how to win the next time where as lilys army have to think again about how to beat an idea that wont go away.

Fair play to scotland for even getting a vote for freedom and since it wasnt chosen it should be respected. But if the want is there again they should get votes until the want is gone. I wish I had the same chance for this place.
Yep, at least the Scots got the opportunity to cast a vote and have their democratic wishes respected. Ireland will never have that same chance, as the wishes of 20% of the population living in a handful of northern counties are given priority over the wishes of everyone else on the island. If Scotland had voted yes, but a majority in the Highlands and islands had voted to stay in the union, would they have been allowed to separate from the rest of Scotland? Not a chance. They'd have been told to respect the democratic decision and the integrity of the country as a unit would have been upheld. Only in Ireland are we expected to live with the injustice of a partitioned country and the perpetuation of a failed northern state founded and sustained against the will of a majority of people on the island.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 21, 2014, 11:25:32 AM
Quote from: Myles Na G. on September 21, 2014, 09:30:11 AM
Quote from: andoireabu on September 21, 2014, 04:31:23 AM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 20, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
There'll be some banter at the next Calcutta cup game.

O flower of Scotland
When will we see your like again
That fought and died for
Your wee bit hill and glen
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

The hills are bare now
And autumn leaves lie thick and still
O'er land that is lost now
Which those so dearly held
And stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

Those days are passed now
And in the past they must remain
But we can still rise now
And be the nation again
That stood against him
Proud Edward's army
And sent him homeward
Tae think again

why wouldnt any scottish yes voter sing this song after losing? When will they see another leader like salmond who got his party to the top and then got a referendum to choose there future and nearly won it. 6% isnt much to lose by in something this big. I wish we had someone here who cared enough about the country to actually try for it rather than taking a dig at each other nd carrying on with the nonsense. And they have definitely sent lilys army home to think again because there is no way the no campaign could win like that again and they have to try and win people over.

So the hills are bare now and they will be for a while but the want won't go away and those who dearly held it will speak again. Ireland had four home rule bills so why would scotland stop at one referendum? Sort out the shortfalls and then bring the arguements back to the table. There were a lot of undecided voters until the end so there are a lot of people who could be swayed and change the majority.

This referendum is passed now and in the past it must remain but they know how to win the next time where as lilys army have to think again about how to beat an idea that wont go away.

Fair play to scotland for even getting a vote for freedom and since it wasnt chosen it should be respected. But if the want is there again they should get votes until the want is gone. I wish I had the same chance for this place.
Yep, at least the Scots got the opportunity to cast a vote and have their democratic wishes respected. Ireland will never have that same chance, as the wishes of 20% of the population living in a handful of northern counties are given priority over the wishes of everyone else on the island. If Scotland had voted yes, but a majority in the Highlands and islands had voted to stay in the union, would they have been allowed to separate from the rest of Scotland? Not a chance. They'd have been told to respect the democratic decision and the integrity of the country as a unit would have been upheld. Only in Ireland are we expected to live with the injustice of a partitioned country and the perpetuation of a failed northern state founded and sustained against the will of a majority of people on the island.

Fair play Myles. Good post.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sidney on September 21, 2014, 11:37:10 AM
Quote from: Sidney on September 19, 2014, 01:25:31 AM
In a parallel world:

Former Prime Minister Lord Bruton of Boyneside and Sir Bob Geldof have made impassioned pleas for Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom ahead of Friday's referendum on whether Ireland should secede.

"We've fought two World Wars together, and we've been part of the greatest and most successful political union the world has ever seen. It would be tragic to throw away almost 850 years of shared history", said Lord Bruton, who served as Prime Minister from 1990 to 1997 and Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1982 to 1990, and is best remembered for his imposition of the infamous "poll tax" on Ireland, even after it had been dropped in the rest of the Union.

"Ireland is a feeling", said Geldof, in a speech at a rally at the John Redmond Cenotaph in Dublin's Sackville Street, which was also attended by Irish First Minister Enda Kenny and Prime Minister David Cameron.

Geldof has been joined by other famous names from the entertainment world, such as U2's Bono, BBC Ireland's Gay Byrne and Terry Wogan, and ITV Ireland's Ryan Tubridy in calling for a No vote.

Sporting stars such as England and Kilkenny county cricket legend Henry Shefflington, golfer Rory McIlroy, Ireland football star Roy Queen and rugby player Brian O'Driscoll have also been lining up to play their part in the "Better Together" campaign.

Meanwhile former US Open golf champion Graeme McDowell, Ireland cricket captain John Mooney and British Loins rugby captain Sean Cavanagh have been on the receiving end of a tirade of foul-mouthed abuse on Twitter after revealing that they favour independence.

Polls currently show the outcome to be too close to call, but it's thought that a strong Yes vote in areas such as Limerick, Wexford and West Dublin may be cancelled out by similarly strong No votes in Unionist strongholds such as Cork, Kilkenny and Fingal.

The referendum has been played out against a backdrop of controversial issues, such as the location of the UK's Trident Nuclear submarines off the west coast, and the No campaign arguing that revenues from the export of potatoes would be insufficient to run an independent economy. All major national newspapers have called for a No vote, however controversy flared at the weekend after Yes campaign leader Martin McGuinness was compared to Hitler by the Sunday Independent. Irish Times editor Eoghan Harris has said that "separating ourselves from the mainland would be a total disaster".

It's been some campaign and we should know the result some time this afternoon. Think the Nos will have it, myself.



As the polls opened within the last few hours, controversy abounds today over comments by BBC Ireland's Sir Gay Byrne on last night's final "Ireland Decides" debate on Channel 4. Byrne angrily said that "revenues from the export of potatoes are no basis on which to run an economy".

The Irish Dependent leads today with a large colour splash of what the national flag might look like without the cross of St. Patrick and the centre spread features a collage of photographs of memorable sporting successes that Irish athletes have been involved in as part of Team GB, such as Dame Katie Taylor's gold medal at London 2012.

The Independent's editorial says that "an independent Ireland is a pipe dream rooted in fantasy rather than reality. We must vote with our heads."

"You don't simply walk out on a marriage when you have an argument", writes Sir Anthony O'Reilly in the same paper. "This is without doubt a marriage that has stood the test of time and is worth saving."

---------------

McGuinness calls for commemoration of Irish terrorist leaders

Sunday Dependent
September 21st, 2014

Yes campaign leader Martin McGuinness has called for more recognition of historical Irish nationalist leaders. Under McGuinness's proposal, a statue of Charles Stewart Parnell would be erected at the junction of Sackville Street and John Redmond Square. "This is our forgotten war", said McGuinness. "The sacrifice of the rebels of 1798, and men like Wolfe Tone and Robert Emmett also needs to be recognised."

First Minister Enda Kenny and Prime Minister David Cameron have poured cold water on the suggestion, however. "I think it's highly inappropriate to bring something like this up at such a delicate stage in the campaign", said Kenny. Former Prime Minister Lord Boyneside has dismissed McGuinness as "a crank who ended up on the wrong side of history".

-----------

Sport

It's a big night in the Vauxhall Irish Premiership, and all roads lead to Dalymount Park for the Old Firm derby meeting of Bohemians and Shamrock Rovers. There will be a heavy police presence to separate supporters, especially given the tensions over today's referendum. Bohemians supporters have been vocal in their support for a No vote, while Shamrock Rovers supporters, led by the Thomas Davis Ultras (named in honour of the 19th century Irish nationalist agitator) have campaigned strongly for a Yes. "We're bracing ourselves for trouble", said an RIC spokesman.

A win will take Rovers back to the top of the league table, at least temporarily, as leaders Lnfield don't play until tomorrow afternoon, when they travel to bottom of the table Maryborough Town. BBC2 Ireland have live coverage of tonight's match, starting at 7:55pm, with commentary from Jackie Fullerton and Damien Richardson.

------------

Press release from Trans World Sport:

This week Trans World Sport focusses on the annual celebration of Ireland's native sporting pursuits, the Irish Country Games. Held annually over one weekend in Lowry's Field, Thurles, Co. Tipperary, since 1916, local teams compete in the traditional Irish games of cad and hurley.

While the sports have been largely dormant for most of the last century, they have enjoyed something of a revival in recent times. Last year 20 teams entered the cad competition, while 8 teams battled it out in the hurley festival.

Other traditional Irish rural activities such as dancing and music are also celebrated, and to add a touch of glamour, a beauty pageant entitled "The Queen of the Camán" (pronounced "Cayman") is contested by young women from the region. The winner gets to sit on a throne with the best player in the cad competition - The "King of Cad", at the closing ceremony.

The Games have been praised in Lonely Planet's Ireland guidebook as "a unique event - it's difficult for an outsider to tell what's going on most of the time, but the sense of fun surrounding the event is palpable."

The games open with a traditional banshee's cry, and close with a ceremonial burning of a huge paper mache model of the infamous Lough Derg Monster, lit by the man voted the best player in the hurley competition.

Nobody knows whether "Dergie", as he's more popularly known to tourists, really exists, but his annual burning is believed by locals to banish unwanted spirits - but the Irish being the Irish, the copious amounts of whiskey consumed all weekend are certainly not included in that category!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 21, 2014, 12:15:18 PM
Quote from: Lamh Dhearg Alba on September 20, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
A lot of very depressed people in Scotland after the result.  However,  given we were up against the Westminster establishment,  the media (only 1 paper supported independence) and the financial world then 45% was a good achievement. I felt 2 weeks ago that we were going to do it but the yes majority poll scared Westminster and we had 10 days of blanket fear coverage with banks and major companies threatening to leave.  That swung people who were moving to yes back to no.

3/4 of over 65's voted no. Give it a few years and we'll be back.
45% was a massive achievement considering all the handicaps of biased media, EU and others ganging up and the rabbit from the hat of greater powers.
The one certainty is that the 45% were committed to the cause while the 555 is split between committed pro Unionists and fearful or dont knows who were swayed by the rabbit from the hat.
I suspect that whole rabbit will unravel as English MPs of all Parties kick up a fuss and hopefully  the new SNP leader plaus all the Yes folks who became politicised will come to the fore and keep up the pressure so that when the next Refernedum is held you will be the 55%.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LondonCamanachd on September 21, 2014, 03:25:47 PM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on September 20, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
There'll be some banter at the next Calcutta cup game.

I very much doubt it.

There's

a) no banter at a Scottish Rugby ever - it's like being in a library
b) Scottish Rugby fans are drawn from Private School Edinburgh and Borders Farmtouns.  The two sections of the populace that were overwhelmingly pro-Union.


Now, the Scotland-England football match in celtic Park in November might be a little emotionally charged.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LondonCamanachd on September 21, 2014, 03:33:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 21, 2014, 12:15:18 PM
Quote from: Lamh Dhearg Alba on September 20, 2014, 08:49:09 PM
A lot of very depressed people in Scotland after the result.  However,  given we were up against the Westminster establishment,  the media (only 1 paper supported independence) and the financial world then 45% was a good achievement. I felt 2 weeks ago that we were going to do it but the yes majority poll scared Westminster and we had 10 days of blanket fear coverage with banks and major companies threatening to leave.  That swung people who were moving to yes back to no.

3/4 of over 65's voted no. Give it a few years and we'll be back.
45% was a massive achievement considering all the handicaps of biased media, EU and others ganging up and the rabbit from the hat of greater powers.
The one certainty is that the 45% were committed to the cause while the 555 is split between committed pro Unionists and fearful or dont knows who were swayed by the rabbit from the hat.
I suspect that whole rabbit will unravel as English MPs of all Parties kick up a fuss and hopefully  the new SNP leader plaus all the Yes folks who became politicised will come to the fore and keep up the pressure so that when the next Refernedum is held you will be the 55%.

Here's hoping.

Over 9,000 people have joined the SNP since the referendum, and the membership of the Scottish Greens has doubled. 

The 55% were persuaded by the mainstream media, the 'normal' portion of society.  The 45% aren't going to go away, they were persuaded by social media, work on the street, town hall meetings etc, they're motivated, and they're now a lot better at organising a campaign from the bottom up.

Expect things to get interesting if Westminster don't deliver a new constitutional settlement soon, as the right wing media down here are pushing for a louder English voice to be heard too.

Cameron's 'vow' hasn't saved the Union, it's merely saved his job, and delayed the break-up into someone else's Premiership.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 21, 2014, 06:30:22 PM
Quote from: LondonCamanachd on September 21, 2014, 03:33:54 PM
Cameron's 'vow' hasn't saved the Union, it's merely saved his job, and delayed the break-up into someone else's Premiership.

I think I agree with that. It'll be interesting to see if the Scots can build on this momentum and get another referendum within the next 15 or 20 years. If the SNP take the Scottish Parliament in a landslide then you could see support for secession growing. I'm surprised only one newspaper supported the nationalists though. If more media outlets swing behind secession then that'll change things, but in the age of media consolidation it's getting harder for that to happen.

I'd hate to see the nationalist movement fizzling out like it seems to have done in Quebec. The Parti Quebecois seems to have a hard time connecting with younger voters and is facing dwindling support, something that cannot be said of the SNP.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LondonCamanachd on September 21, 2014, 08:05:59 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on September 21, 2014, 06:30:22 PM
I'd hate to see the nationalist movement fizzling out like it seems to have done in Quebec. The Parti Quebecois seems to have a hard time connecting with younger voters and is facing dwindling support, something that cannot be said of the SNP.

The Yes Scotland movement was broader brush than just the SNP.  There's also the Greens, Radical Independence, SSP, Solidarity, National Collective, Independence for Women, Shinty for Yes, etc.

Even if the SNP fail to appeal to the youth voter, the more grass roots, informal, livelier elements won't.  e.g. National Collective are a non-party-political collection of pro-Indy artists.

The movement's lost a figurehead in Salmond, but in the face of the media disdain, Yes Scotland was always a street and social media based movement anyway - which is where the young voters are.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 21, 2014, 08:31:17 PM
Shinty for yes? Brilliant.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LondonCamanachd on September 21, 2014, 08:54:47 PM
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Shinty-for-Yes/

Not the biggest movement, but still representing those who wish to be identified as such.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: theskull1 on September 24, 2014, 07:21:28 PM
What a difference a week makes   :o

(http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-29342142)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eamonnca1 on September 24, 2014, 08:29:58 PM
Quote from: theskull1 on September 24, 2014, 07:21:28 PM
What a difference a week makes   :o

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-29342142 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-29342142)

Fixed it for you.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: theskull1 on September 24, 2014, 08:39:10 PM
Cheers
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on January 21, 2015, 10:40:08 PM
With more than half the vote and a first past the post system polls suggest that the SNP will win almost all of the Westminster seats in Scotland, reducing Labour  from 41 to four and the Lib Dems and Tories to zero. Labour has really lost ground because of the referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seanf on January 21, 2015, 10:56:44 PM
The SNP could well win the popular vote but take hardly any extra seats
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on January 21, 2015, 11:05:18 PM
Quote from: seanf on January 21, 2015, 10:56:44 PM
The SNP could well win the popular vote but take hardly any extra seats

Ehh? How'd ye figure that one out?

Considering they currently only have 5 seats out of 60 at the moment if they win the popular vote it would pretty much be impossible for them not to win a ton of extra seats.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on January 21, 2015, 11:09:40 PM
In the first past the post system once you get ahead you win big.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on January 21, 2015, 11:14:06 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 21, 2015, 11:09:40 PM
In the first past the post system once you get ahead you win big.


Somethin like that musta happened tonight in the Athletic grounds ehh? ;)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Maguire01 on January 22, 2015, 09:54:05 PM
Quote from: seanf on January 21, 2015, 10:56:44 PM
The SNP could well win the popular vote but take hardly any extra seats
Given that you don't need to be anywhere close to 50% to take a seat in a FPTP election, the reality is the very opposite of what you say. If they win the popular vote, they'll clean up, but could do so with a much smaller proportion.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on January 23, 2015, 08:49:09 AM
Given the rotten borough nature of Westminster constituencies - the smallest non-island constituency in Scotland has a population of 47,572, the largest a population of 82,473* - it is plausible that the SNP could be the largest party and not win the most seats. But it's unlikely they wouldn't win a lot of extra seats. And once you have a plurality it doesn't take many extra votes for you to go from 'a lot' to 'the lot'.

*stats culled from Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_Parliament_constituencies)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on January 23, 2015, 09:30:15 AM
If the SNP vote was very geographically concentrated they might fail to get a full haul of seats, but they have now made progress in all areas.

On an aside, the SNP complained about not being on TV debates when UKIP were. The BBC made some plan for the SNP and now Robinson wants the DUP in on the act.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on September 14, 2015, 11:29:23 PM
One year on and how the landscape has changed...

Almost all of Scotland's Westminster MPs are SNP, plus they took 50% of all votes cast.

Two recent polls finding a majority of Scots are now Pro Independence

Another Tory government was voted in to the loathe of the Scots

A looming Brexit

So..
Was the Indy ref that lit the fuse that is sending our closest neighbours on a unstoppable train toward secession?

Or did the Scots miss the boat?

Or is this all simply a trend that will likely fizzle away with the next political fashion?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: OakleafCounty on September 15, 2015, 07:46:02 AM
Inevitably not everyone will stick with the SNP if/when they don't deliver everything they aim for. If your talking around another 15 years before a referendum the unionist cause might find a way with engaging the public without the stupid scaremongering tactics they have been using.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ashman on September 15, 2015, 09:12:57 AM
Oil prices fooked!!!!!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: GJL on September 15, 2015, 11:49:29 AM
Quote from: ashman on September 15, 2015, 09:12:57 AM
Oil prices fooked!!!!!

Oil is well down. Do you think it is down to stay?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on September 15, 2015, 11:52:24 AM
Quote from: GJL on September 15, 2015, 11:49:29 AM
Quote from: ashman on September 15, 2015, 09:12:57 AM
Oil prices fooked!!!!!

Oil is well down. Do you think it is down to stay?

Read that somewhere but for some reason the fuel prices started creeping up at the pump again, feckin bolloxes!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 12:09:22 PM
Is there a clamour in Norway to rejoin the union with Sweden, what with the fall in oil prices?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 02:08:46 PM
I stiil think the Scots don't really want independence. They'll happily vote for the SNP in Westminster elections but independence is another step down the road. I don't think they have the belief in themselves that they can go it alone and they quite like giving out about the English. I find that sad to be honest.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AZOffaly on September 15, 2015, 02:27:33 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 02:08:46 PM
I stiil think the Scots don't really want independence. They'll happily vote for the SNP in Westminster elections but independence is another step down the road. I don't think they have the belief in themselves that they can go it alone and they quite like giving out about the English. I find that sad to be honest.

Whatever about it being sad, I think the rest is spot on. It seems they want a strong scottish voice in Westminster, but that's the key part of the sentence, 'in Westminster'.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: GJL on September 15, 2015, 03:05:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 15, 2015, 02:27:33 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 02:08:46 PM
I stiil think the Scots don't really want independence. They'll happily vote for the SNP in Westminster elections but independence is another step down the road. I don't think they have the belief in themselves that they can go it alone and they quite like giving out about the English. I find that sad to be honest.

Whatever about it being sad, I think the rest is spot on. It seems they want a strong scottish voice in Westminster, but that's the key part of the sentence, 'in Westminster'.

I'm not so sure. They were not that far away the last time and only for a lot of promises made by the Brits they might have made it. Those promises have not been fully kept so next time around you never know.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ashman on September 15, 2015, 03:59:32 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 12:09:22 PM
Is there a clamour in Norway to rejoin the union with Sweden, what with the fall in oil prices?

The dilemma of the divorcee who got the snip and then ......
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on September 15, 2015, 04:11:08 PM
Quote from: GJL on September 15, 2015, 03:05:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 15, 2015, 02:27:33 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 02:08:46 PM
I stiil think the Scots don't really want independence. They'll happily vote for the SNP in Westminster elections but independence is another step down the road. I don't think they have the belief in themselves that they can go it alone and they quite like giving out about the English. I find that sad to be honest.

Whatever about it being sad, I think the rest is spot on. It seems they want a strong scottish voice in Westminster, but that's the key part of the sentence, 'in Westminster'.

I'm not so sure. They were not that far away the last time and only for a lot of promises made by the Brits they might have made it. Those promises have not been fully kept so next time around you never know.

To the previous two posts you're analysis is outdated. I know quite a few Scots and many were completely embarrassed about the result last year, their opinion has shifted from "maybe, suppose it would be nice" to "dam right we should"

And given that 45% voted for independence and 50% voted for the SNP at the recent elections, therefore at the most you are only talking about 5% of Scots who think the way of your conclusions.

As a comparison for reference, Sinn Fein only got 47% of the popular vote in 1918 which lead directly to independence.

There was a fundamental shift in how the Scots think during indieref. Independence in Scotland has all of a sudden become a very mainstream issue. Whether this fashion continues to grow, or fizzlesout before independence is achieved is the question.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on September 15, 2015, 04:22:50 PM
Quote from: ashman on September 15, 2015, 03:59:32 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 12:09:22 PM
Is there a clamour in Norway to rejoin the union with Sweden, what with the fall in oil prices?

The dilemma of the divorcee who got the snip and then ......

That's a good way of putting it.  :D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 04:29:20 PM
Quote from: ashman on September 15, 2015, 03:59:32 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 12:09:22 PM
Is there a clamour in Norway to rejoin the union with Sweden, what with the fall in oil prices?

The dilemma of the divorcee who got the snip and then ......

(http://www.messygourmet.com/img/swedishchef.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on September 15, 2015, 04:36:27 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 04:29:20 PM
Quote from: ashman on September 15, 2015, 03:59:32 PM
Quote from: deiseach on September 15, 2015, 12:09:22 PM
Is there a clamour in Norway to rejoin the union with Sweden, what with the fall in oil prices?

The dilemma of the divorcee who got the snip and then ......

(http://www.messygourmet.com/img/swedishchef.jpg)

Ran into a fella a few weeks back... 28yo with a 6 month old baby and he was gonna get it done.
:o
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 06:04:12 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on September 15, 2015, 04:11:08 PM
Quote from: GJL on September 15, 2015, 03:05:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 15, 2015, 02:27:33 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 02:08:46 PM
I stiil think the Scots don't really want independence. They'll happily vote for the SNP in Westminster elections but independence is another step down the road. I don't think they have the belief in themselves that they can go it alone and they quite like giving out about the English. I find that sad to be honest.

Whatever about it being sad, I think the rest is spot on. It seems they want a strong scottish voice in Westminster, but that's the key part of the sentence, 'in Westminster'.

I'm not so sure. They were not that far away the last time and only for a lot of promises made by the Brits they might have made it. Those promises have not been fully kept so next time around you never know.

To the previous two posts you're analysis is outdated. I know quite a few Scots and many were completely embarrassed about the result last year, their opinion has shifted from "maybe, suppose it would be nice" to "dam right we should"

And given that 45% voted for independence and 50% voted for the SNP at the recent elections, therefore at the most you are only talking about 5% of Scots who think the way of your conclusions.

As a comparison for reference, Sinn Fein only got 47% of the popular vote in 1918 which lead directly to independence.

There was a fundamental shift in how the Scots think during indieref. Independence in Scotland has all of a sudden become a very mainstream issue. Whether this fashion continues to grow, or fizzlesout before independence is achieved is the question.

It's alright talking tough but when it comes to it they will bottle it again.....as they have always done throughout history. Singing an anthem about fighting and dying and they couldn't even mange to vote for the bloody thing. I'll believe it when I see it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: omaghjoe on September 15, 2015, 06:15:14 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 06:04:12 PM
Quote from: omaghjoe on September 15, 2015, 04:11:08 PM
Quote from: GJL on September 15, 2015, 03:05:28 PM
Quote from: AZOffaly on September 15, 2015, 02:27:33 PM
Quote from: magpie seanie on September 15, 2015, 02:08:46 PM
I stiil think the Scots don't really want independence. They'll happily vote for the SNP in Westminster elections but independence is another step down the road. I don't think they have the belief in themselves that they can go it alone and they quite like giving out about the English. I find that sad to be honest.

Whatever about it being sad, I think the rest is spot on. It seems they want a strong scottish voice in Westminster, but that's the key part of the sentence, 'in Westminster'.

I'm not so sure. They were not that far away the last time and only for a lot of promises made by the Brits they might have made it. Those promises have not been fully kept so next time around you never know.

To the previous two posts you're analysis is outdated. I know quite a few Scots and many were completely embarrassed about the result last year, their opinion has shifted from "maybe, suppose it would be nice" to "dam right we should"

And given that 45% voted for independence and 50% voted for the SNP at the recent elections, therefore at the most you are only talking about 5% of Scots who think the way of your conclusions.

As a comparison for reference, Sinn Fein only got 47% of the popular vote in 1918 which lead directly to independence.

There was a fundamental shift in how the Scots think during indieref. Independence in Scotland has all of a sudden become a very mainstream issue. Whether this fashion continues to grow, or fizzlesout before independence is achieved is the question.

It's alright talking tough but when it comes to it they will bottle it again.....as they have always done throughout history. Singing an anthem about fighting and dying and they couldn't even mange to vote for the bloody thing. I'll believe it when I see it.

Actually the referendum result surpassed any fair or logical expectations for "Yes". There was a massive surge throughout the indieref campaign towards Yes and that's been maintained and continued since.

As for the fighting and dying... "Those days are past now, and in the past they must remain"
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: magpie seanie on September 16, 2015, 12:29:49 PM
We'll agree to disagree for now omaghjoe but I'll watch to see with interest if you are right. You're probably closer to things that I am so maybe my perception differs from the reality.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on June 26, 2016, 07:28:44 PM
This Brexit thing has moved a few from one side to the other on this matter.

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times indicated an almost direct reversal of the result of the 2014 referendum, with 52% in favour of independence, up seven points, and 48% against, down seven points.

The snapshot of 620 adults also found that 52% thought Scotland was likely to become independent within 10 years, rising from 30% when the same question was asked in April.

A poll for the Sunday Post that asked respondents how they would vote if a second referendum were held tomorrow, revealed 59% would vote yes to independence, 32% no and 9% undecided.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 26, 2016, 07:48:39 PM
Brexit changes everything . 100000 jobs could be lost in banking.
Splits the Tory party apart. Could see the UK break up
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: muppet on June 26, 2016, 08:24:58 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 26, 2016, 07:28:44 PM
This Brexit thing has moved a few from one side to the other on this matter.

A Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times indicated an almost direct reversal of the result of the 2014 referendum, with 52% in favour of independence, up seven points, and 48% against, down seven points.

The snapshot of 620 adults also found that 52% thought Scotland was likely to become independent within 10 years, rising from 30% when the same question was asked in April.

A poll for the Sunday Post that asked respondents how they would vote if a second referendum were held tomorrow, revealed 59% would vote yes to independence, 32% no and 9% undecided.


If there is one thing that we learned from Brexit, it is that everyone grossly overestimates the accuracy of polls.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: No wides on June 27, 2016, 08:20:56 AM
Brexit could make the Union stronger - looks like Scotland has to leave with UK and if they get independence re-apply, which would mean them having to take the Euro.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on June 27, 2016, 09:37:53 AM
Who says Scotland would have to reapply?
They are already in it and no doubt arrangements to remain would be negotiated as part of the England/ Wales exit.
Who said they " will have to take the Euro"?
10 or 11 of the current members aren't in the €zone.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Clov on June 27, 2016, 10:00:46 AM
They won't have to "take the euro" immediately to join the EU, but any new candidate countries have to make a commitment to adopting the single currency in time.

The currency issue is one of the biggest stumbling blocks for the Scot's independence movement. Adopting the Euro would most likely be very unpopular.

I wonder though is there a scenario where they force the abandonment of Brexit through the courts, and then exit the union (which would be damaged irreparably at that stage) while retaining some sort of status quo with the EU?
(Though Spain would probably block that last bit).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 27, 2016, 10:04:17 AM
If the UK breaks up , Catalonia will go for independence.
Maybe the Brits could give Spain Gibraltar as compensation
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on June 27, 2016, 10:19:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 26, 2016, 08:24:58 PM
If there is one thing that we learned from Brexit, it is that everyone grossly overestimates the accuracy of polls.

I don't know that we did learn this. The polls weren't that far off, as many showed a Leave majority in the last couple of weeks. What throws the polls off is the differential turnout.

If the Scottish poll with 59% out, 32% in and 9% undecided was in any way professionally conducted, then that suggests a majority.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Clov on June 27, 2016, 10:29:48 AM
The polls, bookmakers and markets were wrong at the death though as they all were pointing to a narrow remain vote.

One theory i heard was that a failure to take account of postal votes might have led to an overconfidence in the remain votes. Apparently 20% of the electorate were registered to vote by postal votes. As they were cast a couple of weeks in advance (significantly, before the murder of Jo Cox), their distribution may have reflected a different mood among voters that pertained then - they're also older voters and more likely to vote leave anyway. May be the pollsters et al accurately gauged the mood of the electorate on the day of the vote but that it was the postal voters "wot won it".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 09, 2017, 02:03:28 PM
Another Scottish poll showing 50/50 today and Nicola Sturgeon is on TV tonight apparently musing about a date for a referendum.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-independence-poll-says-indyref2-yes-vote-at-50-1-4387435

all of this could considerably affect the mood music in the 6 counties.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 13, 2017, 08:23:17 PM
Starting gun fired on Indyref#2

Scottish independence: Nicola Sturgeon to seek second referendum - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181

Doomed to fail by a bigger margin than the first imo & quite possibly destroy the Independence movement for many years to come.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 13, 2017, 08:39:07 PM
Based on?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 13, 2017, 09:10:51 PM
Based on my opinion.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: LCohen on March 13, 2017, 09:12:56 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 13, 2017, 08:39:07 PM
Based on?

I'm guessing opinion polls and economics.

Sturgeon wants Independence. She doesn't want a referendum. Not now. She wants concessions. She might get them. More Nissan than William Wallace
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 13, 2017, 09:19:02 PM
Quote from: LCohen on March 13, 2017, 09:12:56 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 13, 2017, 08:39:07 PM
Based on?

I'm guessing opinion polls and economics.

Sturgeon wants Independence. She doesn't want a referendum. Not now. She wants concessions. She might get them. More Nissan than William Wallace

There is a lot of truth in this and she may do the rest of us some good also in that she may have taken wind out of the sails of the gung-ho hard Brexit lunatics.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on March 13, 2017, 09:35:32 PM
May mightn't allow it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Olly on March 13, 2017, 10:26:30 PM
Would Scotland be a poor country then?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Ronnie on March 13, 2017, 11:01:15 PM
Depends what you mean by 'poor'.  Interesting times.  I laughed out loud when Theresa May said that "Politics is not a game" and I haven't lol-ed since I found out what lol meant.  Britain is a genuinely funny country.  Constitutionally it's always been all over the place.  In Northern Ireland Sinn Fein should be concentrating on collating the obvious anti-Brexit alliance rather than hanging the future of any Stormont government on who leads the DUP.  They would be surprised just how many small u unionists are out there.  It should also consider taking their few seats at Westminster.  I'd said NI will be used as a test case before any 2nd referendum.  If there's no special status for us then Scotland will definitely have to abide by the will of the entire British people.  No doubt there'll have to be some internal allowances made.  Voters see through out-dated dogma and it's usually counter-productive as Jeremy Corbyn is finding to his cost.  As May has said more the once "Brexit means Brexit".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 13, 2017, 11:20:56 PM
Quote from: Olly on March 13, 2017, 10:26:30 PM
Would Scotland be a poor country then?
According to Scot Nats it's one of the richest countries in the world.
It has oil.
I suspect the SNP are angling for some special status type deal.
They've stolen Brexit's thunder as I believe the trigger isn't  being pulled tomorrow as planned.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 13, 2017, 11:41:00 PM
Quote from: Olly on March 13, 2017, 10:26:30 PM
Would Scotland be a poor country then?

They'd never be generous with their expenditure.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2017, 08:02:49 AM
The 26 counties left the UK under circumstances similar to what we see now. Public opinion can change very quickly as in the 1918 election. In 2014 Cameron  and his campaign told the Jocks  that union was the only guarantee of access to the single market. ....
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 14, 2017, 11:27:03 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/14/five-charts-show-economically-risky-scottish-independence-would/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Avondhu star on March 14, 2017, 11:36:33 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on March 13, 2017, 09:35:32 PM
May mightn't allow it.
If the Scottish people vote for independence then what May allows or not allows shouldnt matter. What is she going to do? Send the Paras into Midlothian?
We will see how determined the Scottish are then.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 14, 2017, 11:40:57 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2017, 11:27:03 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/14/five-charts-show-economically-risky-scottish-independence-would/
The "Torygraph" ::)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Horse Box on March 14, 2017, 12:07:14 PM
Quote from: Avondhu star on March 14, 2017, 11:36:33 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on March 13, 2017, 09:35:32 PM
May mightn't allow it.
If the Scottish people vote for independence then what May allows or not allows shouldnt matter. What is she going to do? Send the Paras into Midlothian?
We will see how determined the Scottish are then.

:o , Midlothian and indeed Edinburgh voted roughly 60% No last time around . More likely the send the murderous b@stards into Dundee or the West of Scotland !
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on March 14, 2017, 01:03:33 PM
Quote from: Avondhu star on March 14, 2017, 11:36:33 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on March 13, 2017, 09:35:32 PM
May mightn't allow it.
If the Scottish people vote for independence then what May allows or not allows shouldnt matter. What is she going to do? Send the Paras into Midlothian?
We will see how determined the Scottish are then.
I meant she might not allow the referendum to be called. After all she's the leader of the Conservative and Unionist party.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggysego on March 14, 2017, 01:44:04 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 14, 2017, 11:27:03 AM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/14/five-charts-show-economically-risky-scottish-independence-would/

They also claimed there was very little oil left in Scotland, but miraculously more oil was found the day AFTER the referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hereiam on March 14, 2017, 02:27:04 PM
I would bet there is a shit load of oil under the north sea yet, at this very moment in time the British are currently shipping one of the largest oil rigs ever built from China to the north sea, not due to arrive until June.
Its like have a bag of sweets and telling your friends that they are nearly all gone because you know every bastard will want them.
As said before on here if Scotland do vote to leave do people really think that the British will just give up the oil.... no chance
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 14, 2017, 02:33:41 PM
Why do ye think the SNP want the vote before the Brexit happens?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ziggysego on March 14, 2017, 02:43:37 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 14, 2017, 02:33:41 PM
Why do ye think the SNP want the vote before the Brexit happens?

Harder to get into the European Union from the outside. If the Scottish vote Leave in the referendum, they have a better case to fight to remain in the EU outside of the UK.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 14, 2017, 02:54:16 PM
Quote from: Hereiam on March 14, 2017, 02:27:04 PM
I would bet there is a shit load of oil under the north sea yet, at this very moment in time the British are currently shipping one of the largest oil rigs ever built from China to the north sea, not due to arrive until June.
Its like have a bag of sweets and telling your friends that they are nearly all gone because you know every b**tard will want them.
As said before on here if Scotland do vote to leave do people really think that the British will just give up the oil.... no chance

lol ... There's years & years of oil left in it via existing wells and there are new discoveries being made on a regular basis..
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnneycool on March 14, 2017, 10:20:42 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 14, 2017, 02:33:41 PM
Why do ye think the SNP want the vote before the Brexit happens?

I'd say it's to see what sort of deal May can get on brexit and allow Scots to decide on independence/remain in the EU or remain part of the UK
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     Once upon a time, wise British small-c conservatives and small-u unionists knew better than to meddle with constitutional matters. Even though, from time to time, constitutional changes were necessary, they were not to be entered into lightly. You never knew what would happen next.The folly of David Cameron's un-conservative referendum on UK membership of the EU now has a fresh consequence: today, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said there should be a new independence referendum once the UK's terms of departure were obvious. The date for such a referendum will be between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. The union with Scotland is therefore at stake.

She has a point. There can be no serious argument that Brexit will not be a "significant and material" change in Scotland's position within the UK. If a hard Brexit is not such a change, it is difficult to think what would be. The wording matters, as the first minister's political party the SNP was elected as the largest party in the Scottish parliament with a manifesto that said there could be a further independence referendum in the event of a "significant and material" change.Ms Sturgeon says she is offering "clear and decisive" leadership. In the sense that she is showing a path to a new referendum, she is indeed doing so. But beyond the referendum, things are not clear. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.

The history of Europe has seen many unions and federations come and go. Scotland kept its legal system after the union of 1707 (indeed Scots law has more in common with continental "civilian" legal systems than with English or Irish law). It also has long had its own established church and education system. Even before modern devolution it was a state in its own right. There is nothing inevitable about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland just as there was nothing inevitable about the "ever closer union" of EU member states.Just as wise conservatives knew not to meddle lightly in constitutional matters, wise unionists realised that the marriage of the nations comprising the UK needed constant care and attention. Stability of both the constitution and the union with Scotland (and Northern Ireland) should not be taken for granted. The constitutional and legal bonds that keep the UK together are not tied for all time.

The knots can be undone, or cut. Or the bonds can snap.The political merits of Brexit and of Scottish independence are one thing — but politics takes place within a framework provided by constitutional arrangements. Brexit started with what Mr Cameron must have thought was a clever wheeze to gain political advantage: the calling of a EU referendum that he assumed he would win easily. The clever wheeze is now shaking the pillars of the UK state.Leaving the EU is being used as the pretext for an immense power-grab by Whitehall by means of a Great Repeal Bill with wider governmental discretion. The House of Lords and the courts are dismissed as little more than enemies of the people. The referendum — and its attendant "mandate of the people" — continues to disrupt the checks and balances of what was once a parliamentary democracy.It would be ironic if the constitutional integrity of the UK was destroyed because of the successive actions of two big-c Conservative prime ministers. The full name of the Tory party is the Conservative and Unionist party: but Brexit means it is neither conservative nor unionist in any meaningful way.The current Conservative government is taking Brexit seriously — of that there can be no doubt. But it no longer seems to be taking either the constitution or the union seriously.

And once there is no one left to defend the constitution and the union, there can be no surprise if executive disregard for settled checks and balances, and shifts towards independence, follow. Nothing is left to stop them.There seems to be a looming choice for the UK government: is a hard Brexit more important than the union with Scotland? Once upon a time, wise conservatives and unionists would have known the answer. Now, those calling themselves Conservatives and Unionists do little more than shrug.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     Once upon a time, wise British small-c conservatives and small-u unionists knew better than to meddle with constitutional matters. Even though, from time to time, constitutional changes were necessary, they were not to be entered into lightly. You never knew what would happen next.The folly of David Cameron's un-conservative referendum on UK membership of the EU now has a fresh consequence: today, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said there should be a new independence referendum once the UK's terms of departure were obvious. The date for such a referendum will be between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. The union with Scotland is therefore at stake.

She has a point. There can be no serious argument that Brexit will not be a "significant and material" change in Scotland's position within the UK. If a hard Brexit is not such a change, it is difficult to think what would be. The wording matters, as the first minister's political party the SNP was elected as the largest party in the Scottish parliament with a manifesto that said there could be a further independence referendum in the event of a "significant and material" change.Ms Sturgeon says she is offering "clear and decisive" leadership. In the sense that she is showing a path to a new referendum, she is indeed doing so. But beyond the referendum, things are not clear. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.

The history of Europe has seen many unions and federations come and go. Scotland kept its legal system after the union of 1707 (indeed Scots law has more in common with continental "civilian" legal systems than with English or Irish law). It also has long had its own established church and education system. Even before modern devolution it was a state in its own right. There is nothing inevitable about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland just as there was nothing inevitable about the "ever closer union" of EU member states.Just as wise conservatives knew not to meddle lightly in constitutional matters, wise unionists realised that the marriage of the nations comprising the UK needed constant care and attention. Stability of both the constitution and the union with Scotland (and Northern Ireland) should not be taken for granted. The constitutional and legal bonds that keep the UK together are not tied for all time.

The knots can be undone, or cut. Or the bonds can snap.The political merits of Brexit and of Scottish independence are one thing — but politics takes place within a framework provided by constitutional arrangements. Brexit started with what Mr Cameron must have thought was a clever wheeze to gain political advantage: the calling of a EU referendum that he assumed he would win easily. The clever wheeze is now shaking the pillars of the UK state.Leaving the EU is being used as the pretext for an immense power-grab by Whitehall by means of a Great Repeal Bill with wider governmental discretion. The House of Lords and the courts are dismissed as little more than enemies of the people. The referendum — and its attendant "mandate of the people" — continues to disrupt the checks and balances of what was once a parliamentary democracy.It would be ironic if the constitutional integrity of the UK was destroyed because of the successive actions of two big-c Conservative prime ministers. The full name of the Tory party is the Conservative and Unionist party: but Brexit means it is neither conservative nor unionist in any meaningful way.The current Conservative government is taking Brexit seriously — of that there can be no doubt. But it no longer seems to be taking either the constitution or the union seriously.

And once there is no one left to defend the constitution and the union, there can be no surprise if executive disregard for settled checks and balances, and shifts towards independence, follow. Nothing is left to stop them.There seems to be a looming choice for the UK government: is a hard Brexit more important than the union with Scotland? Once upon a time, wise conservatives and unionists would have known the answer. Now, those calling themselves Conservatives and Unionists do little more than shrug.

Disagree with the part on the EU would be reluctant to exept Scotland if the referendum went to independence
Even if they didn't when you look at countries like Denmark who has an oil industry that is state owned and distributed for the good of its people instead of enhancing oil companies profits
Scotland is in a good place regardless
Why was Cameron and co up begging the Scottish electorate to stay in the U.K. When the opinion polls got hairy


Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 01:00:29 PM
2014 is so long ago now

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/15/theresa-may-dragging-uk-under-scotland-must-cut-rope
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 02:52:27 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     Once upon a time, wise British small-c conservatives and small-u unionists knew better than to meddle with constitutional matters. Even though, from time to time, constitutional changes were necessary, they were not to be entered into lightly. You never knew what would happen next.The folly of David Cameron's un-conservative referendum on UK membership of the EU now has a fresh consequence: today, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said there should be a new independence referendum once the UK's terms of departure were obvious. The date for such a referendum will be between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. The union with Scotland is therefore at stake.

She has a point. There can be no serious argument that Brexit will not be a "significant and material" change in Scotland's position within the UK. If a hard Brexit is not such a change, it is difficult to think what would be. The wording matters, as the first minister's political party the SNP was elected as the largest party in the Scottish parliament with a manifesto that said there could be a further independence referendum in the event of a "significant and material" change.Ms Sturgeon says she is offering "clear and decisive" leadership. In the sense that she is showing a path to a new referendum, she is indeed doing so. But beyond the referendum, things are not clear. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.

The history of Europe has seen many unions and federations come and go. Scotland kept its legal system after the union of 1707 (indeed Scots law has more in common with continental "civilian" legal systems than with English or Irish law). It also has long had its own established church and education system. Even before modern devolution it was a state in its own right. There is nothing inevitable about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland just as there was nothing inevitable about the "ever closer union" of EU member states.Just as wise conservatives knew not to meddle lightly in constitutional matters, wise unionists realised that the marriage of the nations comprising the UK needed constant care and attention. Stability of both the constitution and the union with Scotland (and Northern Ireland) should not be taken for granted. The constitutional and legal bonds that keep the UK together are not tied for all time.

The knots can be undone, or cut. Or the bonds can snap.The political merits of Brexit and of Scottish independence are one thing — but politics takes place within a framework provided by constitutional arrangements. Brexit started with what Mr Cameron must have thought was a clever wheeze to gain political advantage: the calling of a EU referendum that he assumed he would win easily. The clever wheeze is now shaking the pillars of the UK state.Leaving the EU is being used as the pretext for an immense power-grab by Whitehall by means of a Great Repeal Bill with wider governmental discretion. The House of Lords and the courts are dismissed as little more than enemies of the people. The referendum — and its attendant "mandate of the people" — continues to disrupt the checks and balances of what was once a parliamentary democracy.It would be ironic if the constitutional integrity of the UK was destroyed because of the successive actions of two big-c Conservative prime ministers. The full name of the Tory party is the Conservative and Unionist party: but Brexit means it is neither conservative nor unionist in any meaningful way.The current Conservative government is taking Brexit seriously — of that there can be no doubt. But it no longer seems to be taking either the constitution or the union seriously.

And once there is no one left to defend the constitution and the union, there can be no surprise if executive disregard for settled checks and balances, and shifts towards independence, follow. Nothing is left to stop them.There seems to be a looming choice for the UK government: is a hard Brexit more important than the union with Scotland? Once upon a time, wise conservatives and unionists would have known the answer. Now, those calling themselves Conservatives and Unionists do little more than shrug.

Disagree with the part on the EU would be reluctant to exept Scotland if the referendum went to independence
Even if they didn't when you look at countries like Denmark who has an oil industry that is state owned and distributed for the good of its people instead of enhancing oil companies profits
Scotland is in a good place regardless
Why was Cameron and co up begging the Scottish electorate to stay in the U.K. When the opinion polls got hairy

The Norwegian Oil fund is the best example of how to really benefit from your natural resources .. They actually make more now from the fund than they do from the oil revenue.... Its the largest investment fund in the world.

https://eiti.org/news/norway-revenue-from-oil-fund-now-exceeds-revenue-from-oil

Fantastic ..
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 15, 2017, 03:30:36 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.
]Disagree with the part on the EU would be reluctant to exept Scotland if the referendum went to independence
A piece of pish that's for sure, of course Scotland's a nation and not a region looking for autonomy.  And what's left of the UK would also have to abide by the referendum and recognise Scotland a (real) nation once again.

Scotland's Status as a Nation    By David Thomson
http://www.electricscotland.com/history/articles/nation_status.htm (http://www.electricscotland.com/history/articles/nation_status.htm)

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 04:07:14 PM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 02:52:27 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     Once upon a time, wise British small-c conservatives and small-u unionists knew better than to meddle with constitutional matters. Even though, from time to time, constitutional changes were necessary, they were not to be entered into lightly. You never knew what would happen next.The folly of David Cameron's un-conservative referendum on UK membership of the EU now has a fresh consequence: today, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said there should be a new independence referendum once the UK's terms of departure were obvious. The date for such a referendum will be between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. The union with Scotland is therefore at stake.

She has a point. There can be no serious argument that Brexit will not be a "significant and material" change in Scotland's position within the UK. If a hard Brexit is not such a change, it is difficult to think what would be. The wording matters, as the first minister's political party the SNP was elected as the largest party in the Scottish parliament with a manifesto that said there could be a further independence referendum in the event of a "significant and material" change.Ms Sturgeon says she is offering "clear and decisive" leadership. In the sense that she is showing a path to a new referendum, she is indeed doing so. But beyond the referendum, things are not clear. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.

The history of Europe has seen many unions and federations come and go. Scotland kept its legal system after the union of 1707 (indeed Scots law has more in common with continental "civilian" legal systems than with English or Irish law). It also has long had its own established church and education system. Even before modern devolution it was a state in its own right. There is nothing inevitable about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland just as there was nothing inevitable about the "ever closer union" of EU member states.Just as wise conservatives knew not to meddle lightly in constitutional matters, wise unionists realised that the marriage of the nations comprising the UK needed constant care and attention. Stability of both the constitution and the union with Scotland (and Northern Ireland) should not be taken for granted. The constitutional and legal bonds that keep the UK together are not tied for all time.

The knots can be undone, or cut. Or the bonds can snap.The political merits of Brexit and of Scottish independence are one thing — but politics takes place within a framework provided by constitutional arrangements. Brexit started with what Mr Cameron must have thought was a clever wheeze to gain political advantage: the calling of a EU referendum that he assumed he would win easily. The clever wheeze is now shaking the pillars of the UK state.Leaving the EU is being used as the pretext for an immense power-grab by Whitehall by means of a Great Repeal Bill with wider governmental discretion. The House of Lords and the courts are dismissed as little more than enemies of the people. The referendum — and its attendant "mandate of the people" — continues to disrupt the checks and balances of what was once a parliamentary democracy.It would be ironic if the constitutional integrity of the UK was destroyed because of the successive actions of two big-c Conservative prime ministers. The full name of the Tory party is the Conservative and Unionist party: but Brexit means it is neither conservative nor unionist in any meaningful way.The current Conservative government is taking Brexit seriously — of that there can be no doubt. But it no longer seems to be taking either the constitution or the union seriously.

And once there is no one left to defend the constitution and the union, there can be no surprise if executive disregard for settled checks and balances, and shifts towards independence, follow. Nothing is left to stop them.There seems to be a looming choice for the UK government: is a hard Brexit more important than the union with Scotland? Once upon a time, wise conservatives and unionists would have known the answer. Now, those calling themselves Conservatives and Unionists do little more than shrug.

Disagree with the part on the EU would be reluctant to exept Scotland if the referendum went to independence
Even if they didn't when you look at countries like Denmark who has an oil industry that is state owned and distributed for the good of its people instead of enhancing oil companies profits
Scotland is in a good place regardless
Why was Cameron and co up begging the Scottish electorate to stay in the U.K. When the opinion polls got hairy

The Norwegian Oil fund is the best example of how to really benefit from your natural resources .. They actually make more now from the fund than they do from the oil revenue.... Its the largest investment fund in the world.

https://eiti.org/news/norway-revenue-from-oil-fund-now-exceeds-revenue-from-oil

Fantastic ..

That's the lines I was thinking
I remember when the republic sold of its rights for all the natural gas of the west coast to shell ( I think ) for a pittence of what it was worth thinking what a load of tossers
Some clowns in office north and south
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 04:18:38 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 04:07:14 PM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 02:52:27 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     Once upon a time, wise British small-c conservatives and small-u unionists knew better than to meddle with constitutional matters. Even though, from time to time, constitutional changes were necessary, they were not to be entered into lightly. You never knew what would happen next.The folly of David Cameron's un-conservative referendum on UK membership of the EU now has a fresh consequence: today, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said there should be a new independence referendum once the UK's terms of departure were obvious. The date for such a referendum will be between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. The union with Scotland is therefore at stake.

She has a point. There can be no serious argument that Brexit will not be a "significant and material" change in Scotland's position within the UK. If a hard Brexit is not such a change, it is difficult to think what would be. The wording matters, as the first minister's political party the SNP was elected as the largest party in the Scottish parliament with a manifesto that said there could be a further independence referendum in the event of a "significant and material" change.Ms Sturgeon says she is offering "clear and decisive" leadership. In the sense that she is showing a path to a new referendum, she is indeed doing so. But beyond the referendum, things are not clear. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.

The history of Europe has seen many unions and federations come and go. Scotland kept its legal system after the union of 1707 (indeed Scots law has more in common with continental "civilian" legal systems than with English or Irish law). It also has long had its own established church and education system. Even before modern devolution it was a state in its own right. There is nothing inevitable about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland just as there was nothing inevitable about the "ever closer union" of EU member states.Just as wise conservatives knew not to meddle lightly in constitutional matters, wise unionists realised that the marriage of the nations comprising the UK needed constant care and attention. Stability of both the constitution and the union with Scotland (and Northern Ireland) should not be taken for granted. The constitutional and legal bonds that keep the UK together are not tied for all time.

The knots can be undone, or cut. Or the bonds can snap.The political merits of Brexit and of Scottish independence are one thing — but politics takes place within a framework provided by constitutional arrangements. Brexit started with what Mr Cameron must have thought was a clever wheeze to gain political advantage: the calling of a EU referendum that he assumed he would win easily. The clever wheeze is now shaking the pillars of the UK state.Leaving the EU is being used as the pretext for an immense power-grab by Whitehall by means of a Great Repeal Bill with wider governmental discretion. The House of Lords and the courts are dismissed as little more than enemies of the people. The referendum — and its attendant "mandate of the people" — continues to disrupt the checks and balances of what was once a parliamentary democracy.It would be ironic if the constitutional integrity of the UK was destroyed because of the successive actions of two big-c Conservative prime ministers. The full name of the Tory party is the Conservative and Unionist party: but Brexit means it is neither conservative nor unionist in any meaningful way.The current Conservative government is taking Brexit seriously — of that there can be no doubt. But it no longer seems to be taking either the constitution or the union seriously.

And once there is no one left to defend the constitution and the union, there can be no surprise if executive disregard for settled checks and balances, and shifts towards independence, follow. Nothing is left to stop them.There seems to be a looming choice for the UK government: is a hard Brexit more important than the union with Scotland? Once upon a time, wise conservatives and unionists would have known the answer. Now, those calling themselves Conservatives and Unionists do little more than shrug.

Disagree with the part on the EU would be reluctant to exept Scotland if the referendum went to independence
Even if they didn't when you look at countries like Denmark who has an oil industry that is state owned and distributed for the good of its people instead of enhancing oil companies profits
Scotland is in a good place regardless
Why was Cameron and co up begging the Scottish electorate to stay in the U.K. When the opinion polls got hairy

The Norwegian Oil fund is the best example of how to really benefit from your natural resources .. They actually make more now from the fund than they do from the oil revenue.... Its the largest investment fund in the world.

https://eiti.org/news/norway-revenue-from-oil-fund-now-exceeds-revenue-from-oil

Fantastic ..

That's the lines I was thinking
I remember when the republic sold of its rights for all the natural gas of the west coast to shell ( I think ) for a pittence of what it was worth thinking what a load of t**sers
Some clowns in office north and south

Yeah, real strategic thinkers  ::) lol
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: foxcommander on March 15, 2017, 04:24:52 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 04:07:14 PM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 02:52:27 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on March 15, 2017, 10:39:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 15, 2017, 09:57:54 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/b6560b3e-ce54-3d04-a7e7-70b61e06b587

                     Once upon a time, wise British small-c conservatives and small-u unionists knew better than to meddle with constitutional matters. Even though, from time to time, constitutional changes were necessary, they were not to be entered into lightly. You never knew what would happen next.The folly of David Cameron's un-conservative referendum on UK membership of the EU now has a fresh consequence: today, the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said there should be a new independence referendum once the UK's terms of departure were obvious. The date for such a referendum will be between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. The union with Scotland is therefore at stake.

She has a point. There can be no serious argument that Brexit will not be a "significant and material" change in Scotland's position within the UK. If a hard Brexit is not such a change, it is difficult to think what would be. The wording matters, as the first minister's political party the SNP was elected as the largest party in the Scottish parliament with a manifesto that said there could be a further independence referendum in the event of a "significant and material" change.Ms Sturgeon says she is offering "clear and decisive" leadership. In the sense that she is showing a path to a new referendum, she is indeed doing so. But beyond the referendum, things are not clear. There is no guarantee that an independent Scotland would be able to join (or rejoin) the EU — or even the European Free Trade Association or the European Economic Area. There are reasons why member states such as Spain, with their own separatist movements, may not want to send any signal that separatism prospers.So, without a plan for what happens in the event of a yes vote, the first minister will join Mr Cameron in having sought a referendum without a clear path for what happens next in respect of relations with the EU — especially if Europe does not play along with what suits Scotland. The problems of a hard Brexit will be compounded if Scotland ends up outside both the EU and the UK. And that is a real possibility if there is no clear pathway to EU membership or a similar status.But Ms Sturgeon must be right to raise the independence issue and to do so at this stage. The UK is, explicitly, a union of kingdoms — and political unions can dissolve as well as be forged.

The history of Europe has seen many unions and federations come and go. Scotland kept its legal system after the union of 1707 (indeed Scots law has more in common with continental "civilian" legal systems than with English or Irish law). It also has long had its own established church and education system. Even before modern devolution it was a state in its own right. There is nothing inevitable about the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland just as there was nothing inevitable about the "ever closer union" of EU member states.Just as wise conservatives knew not to meddle lightly in constitutional matters, wise unionists realised that the marriage of the nations comprising the UK needed constant care and attention. Stability of both the constitution and the union with Scotland (and Northern Ireland) should not be taken for granted. The constitutional and legal bonds that keep the UK together are not tied for all time.

The knots can be undone, or cut. Or the bonds can snap.The political merits of Brexit and of Scottish independence are one thing — but politics takes place within a framework provided by constitutional arrangements. Brexit started with what Mr Cameron must have thought was a clever wheeze to gain political advantage: the calling of a EU referendum that he assumed he would win easily. The clever wheeze is now shaking the pillars of the UK state.Leaving the EU is being used as the pretext for an immense power-grab by Whitehall by means of a Great Repeal Bill with wider governmental discretion. The House of Lords and the courts are dismissed as little more than enemies of the people. The referendum — and its attendant "mandate of the people" — continues to disrupt the checks and balances of what was once a parliamentary democracy.It would be ironic if the constitutional integrity of the UK was destroyed because of the successive actions of two big-c Conservative prime ministers. The full name of the Tory party is the Conservative and Unionist party: but Brexit means it is neither conservative nor unionist in any meaningful way.The current Conservative government is taking Brexit seriously — of that there can be no doubt. But it no longer seems to be taking either the constitution or the union seriously.

And once there is no one left to defend the constitution and the union, there can be no surprise if executive disregard for settled checks and balances, and shifts towards independence, follow. Nothing is left to stop them.There seems to be a looming choice for the UK government: is a hard Brexit more important than the union with Scotland? Once upon a time, wise conservatives and unionists would have known the answer. Now, those calling themselves Conservatives and Unionists do little more than shrug.

Disagree with the part on the EU would be reluctant to exept Scotland if the referendum went to independence
Even if they didn't when you look at countries like Denmark who has an oil industry that is state owned and distributed for the good of its people instead of enhancing oil companies profits
Scotland is in a good place regardless
Why was Cameron and co up begging the Scottish electorate to stay in the U.K. When the opinion polls got hairy

The Norwegian Oil fund is the best example of how to really benefit from your natural resources .. They actually make more now from the fund than they do from the oil revenue.... Its the largest investment fund in the world.

https://eiti.org/news/norway-revenue-from-oil-fund-now-exceeds-revenue-from-oil

Fantastic ..

That's the lines I was thinking
I remember when the republic sold of its rights for all the natural gas of the west coast to shell ( I think ) for a pittence of what it was worth thinking what a load of t**sers
Some clowns in office north and south

Thank you Ray Burke. Instead we get austerity.

http://www.shelltosea.com/content/gas-oil-robbery

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:10:44 PM
more of the same .....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Real Talk on March 15, 2017, 05:18:02 PM
Who actually owns the North Sea ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:40:32 PM
Quote from: Real Talk on March 15, 2017, 05:18:02 PM
Who actually owns the North Sea ?

Most of the area where the big UK bucks were being (and still are) made are in Scottish waters, though I do remember reading somewhere where Tony Blairs government had somewhat surreptitiously moved the English rights further North ... Would need to look that up though ..
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:46:55 PM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:40:32 PM
Quote from: Real Talk on March 15, 2017, 05:18:02 PM
Who actually owns the North Sea ?

Most of the area where the big bucks were being (and still are) made are in Scottish waters, though I do remember reading somewhere where Tony Blairs government had somewhat surreptitiously moved the English rights further North ... Would need to look that up though ..

Yep, found it ....

http://www.oilofscotland.org/scotlands_stolen_sea.html

http://newsnet.scot/archive/former-ambassador-reveals-labour-role-in-annexation-of-scottish-waters/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:54:47 PM
Yeiks .. this explains it very well ... Feckin hell  :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 16, 2017, 01:49:10 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RWsyN2jDPc
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 19, 2017, 01:51:31 AM
(http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/playmates.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Syferus on March 19, 2017, 03:27:14 AM
Lads. Scotland will never have the balls to go it alone.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on February 25, 2020, 12:08:06 AM
Float in German Karneval parade
(https://www.thenational.scot/resources/images/11067185.jpg)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 23, 2020, 04:20:29 PM
Alex Salmond cleared of all (trumped up??) charges.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 23, 2020, 07:48:31 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 23, 2020, 04:20:29 PM
Alex Salmond cleared of all (trumped up??) charges.
Does look like he was stitched up.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 23, 2020, 08:04:18 PM
Oppose the Brit establishment...
Parnell, the "German plot", Stalker........
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 23, 2020, 09:37:21 PM
His defence was that he was cad and a bounder, who behaved badly towards women under his "command", but it wasn't criminal. ;D

His testimony in the most serious charge of assault with intent to rape,  that "he pinned her on a bed and forced his hands up her skirt"
Salmond answered in court that he and the woman had fallen onto the bed in a "sleepy cuddle" after drinking a potent Chinese spirit while they worked.  That charge was not proven. His account of the encounter is corny beyond belief but it happens to support his defence that he was cad and a bounder, who behaved badly to women under his "command".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 24, 2020, 01:46:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 23, 2020, 08:04:18 PM
Oppose the Brit establishment...
Parnell, the "German plot", Stalker........
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/24/alex-salmonds-trial-may-rifts-ripped-snp-apart-remain/
What the High Court witnessed was the culmination of a bitter internal war that had riven the SNP since it lost the independence referendum in 2014; a war between supporters of the present First Minister and those of Mr Salmond.
Battered and bruised by that 2014 loss, policy and personal differences in the SNP's higher ranks intensified to such an extent that for much of the last three years Scotland's governing party had become not one but two entities: one supporting Ms Sturgeon and the other backing Mr Salmond.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 24, 2020, 03:34:05 PM
That must be why they gained those 11 or 12 seats in the General Election ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Minder on March 24, 2020, 07:40:31 PM
So did wee Jimmy Krankie set Salmond up ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 24, 2020, 08:28:14 PM
Telegraph.....enough said
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 25, 2020, 01:37:34 AM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:54:47 PM
Yeiks .. this explains it very well ... Feckin hell  :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-braces-itself-fallout-after-21742371.amp
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Antrim Coaster on March 25, 2020, 11:17:42 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 25, 2020, 01:37:34 AM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:54:47 PM
Yeiks .. this explains it very well ... Feckin hell  :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-braces-itself-fallout-after-21742371.amp

You wouldn't take anything the Daily Record says seriously, especially after one of their succulent lamb sports journalists proudly proclaimed that a Motherwell born billionaire with wealth beyond the radar was going take over Rangers (1872) and fund a player recruitment drive to launch an assault on the Champions League which will leave Celtic trailing in their wake.

Tabloid rubbish at its best
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 25, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
Quote from: Antrim Coaster on March 25, 2020, 11:17:42 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 25, 2020, 01:37:34 AM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:54:47 PM
Yeiks .. this explains it very well ... Feckin hell  :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-braces-itself-fallout-after-21742371.amp

You wouldn't take anything the Daily Record says seriously, especially after one of their succulent lamb sports journalists proudly proclaimed that a Motherwell born billionaire with wealth beyond the radar was going take over Rangers (1872) and fund a player recruitment drive to launch an assault on the Champions League which will leave Celtic trailing in their wake.

Tabloid rubbish at its best
Tabloid political correspondents are usually on the ball
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 25, 2020, 07:24:42 PM
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daily_Record_(Scotland)&ved=2ahUKEwijj968rLboAhUbQRUIHc5LBVcQFjASegQIChAB&usg=AOvVaw2L_nWLDQ2z4J701jlb6XnU


Labour/Unionist ;)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 25, 2020, 09:30:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on March 25, 2020, 06:25:26 PM
Quote from: Antrim Coaster on March 25, 2020, 11:17:42 AM
Quote from: seafoid on March 25, 2020, 01:37:34 AM
Quote from: AhNowRef on March 15, 2017, 05:54:47 PM
Yeiks .. this explains it very well ... Feckin hell  :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfbfldSrJ-0

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-braces-itself-fallout-after-21742371.amp

You wouldn't take anything the Daily Record says seriously, especially after one of their succulent lamb sports journalists proudly proclaimed that a Motherwell born billionaire with wealth beyond the radar was going take over Rangers (1872) and fund a player recruitment drive to launch an assault on the Champions League which will leave Celtic trailing in their wake.

Tabloid rubbish at its best
Tabloid political correspondents are usually on the ball
That article from that tabloid political correspondent is very poor. Regardless of the Record's disreputable tabloid status, Salmond did indicate post verdict that there would be a civil war of sorts. Considering his age, his portly heart attack imminent demeanor, the evidence from 9 women (the court's verdict notwithstanding), I would have thought his political career is toast. Sturgeon has impressed as SNP party leader. Though I haven't a clue about the SNP's potential to self destruct with the party at an all time high.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 27, 2020, 03:59:30 PM
3rd attempt

https://www.ft.com/content/0cafd93c-6d2a-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

Pressure from Salmond supporters will not be the only post-trial problem for Ms Sturgeon. Opposition parties are pushing for a full accounting of what the current first minister knew about allegations of misconduct against her predecessor and when she knew it.  The trial also raises questions for the civil service. Three male senior civil servants called as witnesses told the court that after the 2013 incident at Bute House, arrangements were changed to prevent female staff from being alone with the first minister, particularly in the evenings.  And Alex Bell, a former policy adviser to Mr Salmond, told the court that three years earlier there had been concerns then about him being alone with female colleagues.  The full political ramifications of Mr Salmond's acquittal are likely to be delayed by the UK's developing coronavirus crisis, however. The former first minister said he would not immediately share the information on the case because of the epidemic, telling journalists gathered at the court that it was not safe to be there and they should "go home".  Opposition parties will also be cautious about focusing too much on the issue before coronavirus is tamed. Last week, Jackson Carlaw, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, gave Ms Sturgeon a fulsome endorsement, saying he had "every confidence in her to lead the country's response to this crisis at this time".  On Monday, Mr Carlaw said the "serious questions" Ms Sturgeon and the SNP faced would be deferred. "The court case may be over, but for them this is just the beginning," he said.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 29, 2020, 08:27:17 PM
Salmond is smoked

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-52078493
Alex Salmond's accusers 'devastated' by court verdict

The women who made sexual assault allegations against Alex Salmond say they have been left "devastated" after he was cleared in court. A jury found the former first minister not guilty on 12 of the sexual assault charges facing him, while another was found not proven. A further charge of sexually assaulting a 10th woman had previously been dropped by prosecutors.
Mr Salmond maintained he was innocent throughout the two-week trial.
A legal representative of Mr Salmond has been contacted by the BBC but declined to comment on the women's statement.
The nine women insisted they would not let the former SNP leader being acquitted define them.
And they said that while the experience of taking the case to court had been "traumatic", it had been the "right thing to do".

They recalled that Mr Salmond's lawyer, Gordon Jackson QC, had quoted Woman H and said his client "should have been a better man". In her evidence to the court, Woman H had said: "I wish for my life the first minister was a better man and I was not here."

"Many of us did speak up at the time of our incidents but were faced with procedures that could not deal with complaints against such a powerful figure. Others were silenced by fear of repercussions.


Their full statement pulls no punches

"Some say that women's fight for respect has gone 'too far'. We argue it has far to go," they added.

"For too long, behaviour which should be condemned has been accepted and excused. For too long perpetrators in positions of power have been shielded by their ability to influence and intimidate.  

"For too long women's complaints have been dismissed or swept under the carpet.  And for too long, women have been let down by organisational structures which should exist to protect them, not put them in situations which endanger their welfare.

"This must end."
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on July 05, 2020, 02:50:14 AM
Panel base survey shows indy vote up 5% to 54% because of Covid and the bungling by London of same. This is the highest this poll has been.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on July 05, 2020, 10:10:16 AM
Chlorinated chicken would probably be the end of the Union. Brexit only works as a fantasy.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Sportacus on July 05, 2020, 12:35:37 PM
SNP must be seriously tempted to quarantine the English because of Covid.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on July 05, 2020, 12:58:28 PM
Are they not talking about quarantining from other parts of the uk?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on July 05, 2020, 01:11:58 PM
They are - from England especially now with pubs open, drink flowing etc.
Looking at the bigger picture what are the Scottish Government's options to achieve independence?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyCake on July 05, 2020, 01:52:51 PM
The Scots won't be duped at the next referendum.

They've seen how the country can be run from Edinburgh during this pandemic, rather than by Worzel Gummidge in London.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on July 06, 2020, 08:56:27 AM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.

Westminster and the two parties likely to be in government could not care less about Scotland. The SNP presently have 47 MPs, Scottish Tories have 6, Labour have 1. Neither of the big two would lose much by Scotland being jettisoned and in fact would gain. Anyway, if the polls keeping going this way they might not have much choice.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on July 06, 2020, 11:29:57 AM
When they go to actually mark an 'X' on the ballot paper their b*lls drop off.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on July 06, 2020, 12:19:14 PM
Quote from: Jeepers Creepers on July 06, 2020, 11:29:57 AM
When they go to actually mark an 'X' on the ballot paper their b*lls drop off.

Those kilts provide inadequate support.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on July 06, 2020, 01:06:52 PM
Seeing that Scotland is subsidising the "rest of the UK" I don't see why not.
They'd manage it like other small Independent Countries e.g Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Us in the 26, Malta, Cyprus.....
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on July 06, 2020, 01:22:34 PM
Indeed the model for Covid support was largely pioneered by Denmark.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 02:06:39 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 06, 2020, 01:06:52 PM
Seeing that Scotland is subsidising the "rest of the UK" I don't see why not.
They'd manage it like other small Independent Countries e.g Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Us in the 26, Malta, Cyprus.....
Was support in those smaller independent countries to the same level as that received in the UK?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on July 06, 2020, 03:19:57 PM
€350 per week Covid payment here if job closed.
Up to €400 wage subsidy if employer kept you on.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on July 07, 2020, 12:14:54 AM
If there were advantages to being in the 6th largest economy then are you better off in India (5th place) than Canada (10th place)?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on July 07, 2020, 01:29:33 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Scottish people received financial support because they are still part of the UK and still pay their dues (in fact many reports suggest Scotland contributes more than it receives back), just like the Welsh. They received what they were entitled to, no more or no less than anyone else in the UK. So why should that equate to Scots suddenly thinking that independence isn't worth pursuing anymore? In fact for the shambolic job the present Tory government has made of pandemic management and how they are going to shaft who they have to with Brexit negotiations, including the northern Irish, there is even more reason to want away as recent polls suggest. The union is done and thank f**k for that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: clonadmad on July 07, 2020, 01:57:47 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Must be even better advantages then if your Chinese if your basing it purely on the size of your economy and you must have really lucked out in terms of a safety net if you are an American
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on July 07, 2020, 02:03:25 PM
The fact that they have sensible Leaders who ignored most of the sh1te from Bozo in dealing with Covid has hopefully got a majority of Scots thinking "if we were only totally independent".
Even the Welsh must be thinking that being a Province of England might not be the wisest of things either as they too did their own thing.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on July 07, 2020, 03:21:19 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on July 07, 2020, 02:03:25 PM
The fact that they have sensible Leaders who ignored most of the sh1te from Bozo in dealing with Covid has hopefully got a majority of Scots thinking "if we were only totally independent".
Even the Welsh must be thinking that being a Province of England might not be the wisest of things either as they too did their own thing.

Voting to change the status quo is always an uphill struggle as it's always deemed the better the devil you know than the one you don't but you gotta hand it to Boris, he'll have an independent England in double quick time if he keeps going the way he's going.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: michaelg on July 07, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: ned on July 07, 2020, 01:29:33 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Scottish people received financial support because they are still part of the UK and still pay their dues (in fact many reports suggest Scotland contributes more than it receives back), just like the Welsh. They received what they were entitled to, no more or no less than anyone else in the UK. So why should that equate to Scots suddenly thinking that independence isn't worth pursuing anymore? In fact for the shambolic job the present Tory government has made of pandemic management and how they are going to shaft who they have to with Brexit negotiations, including the northern Irish, there is even more reason to want away as recent polls suggest. The union is done and thank f**k for that.
As there is no guarantee that an independent Scotland will be as well off economically and Scots are seeing first hand the safety net that the Union provides.  I would imagine that the same thought has occurred to a few folk in NI too.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: clonadmad on July 07, 2020, 06:23:33 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 07, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: ned on July 07, 2020, 01:29:33 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Scottish people received financial support because they are still part of the UK and still pay their dues (in fact many reports suggest Scotland contributes more than it receives back), just like the Welsh. They received what they were entitled to, no more or no less than anyone else in the UK. So why should that equate to Scots suddenly thinking that independence isn't worth pursuing anymore? In fact for the shambolic job the present Tory government has made of pandemic management and how they are going to shaft who they have to with Brexit negotiations, including the northern Irish, there is even more reason to want away as recent polls suggest. The union is done and thank f**k for that.
As there is no guarantee that an independent Scotland will be as well off economically and Scots are seeing first hand the safety net that the Union provides.  I would imagine that the same thought has occurred to a few folk in NI too.

lads were probably making the same arguments for us in the 26 counties when we were economically dependent on and in the Union.

We've gone from 95% of exports going to GB to just 11%.

From the average income being 40% of the GB average to just over 133% of their average.


That said

All the Scots had to do was tick a box and they were independent unlike some places I could name and they couldn't even manage that.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on July 07, 2020, 06:32:25 PM
45% of them did the right thing.
Of the 55 who did the wrong thing I wonder how many were committed unionists?
An awful lot of older folk voted no that time who will be dead and gone when the next vote is taken.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on July 07, 2020, 06:51:46 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 07, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: ned on July 07, 2020, 01:29:33 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Scottish people received financial support because they are still part of the UK and still pay their dues (in fact many reports suggest Scotland contributes more than it receives back), just like the Welsh. They received what they were entitled to, no more or no less than anyone else in the UK. So why should that equate to Scots suddenly thinking that independence isn't worth pursuing anymore? In fact for the shambolic job the present Tory government has made of pandemic management and how they are going to shaft who they have to with Brexit negotiations, including the northern Irish, there is even more reason to want away as recent polls suggest. The union is done and thank f**k for that.
As there is no guarantee that an independent Scotland will be as well off economically and Scots are seeing first hand the safety net that the Union provides.  I would imagine that the same thought has occurred to a few folk in NI too.

Safety net! There is no guarantee Scotland would be worse off as an independent nation. No one truly knows but I sure as hell feel having a greater say in your own affairs and not relying on Tories or Labour to make major decisions for you looks very appealing.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on July 07, 2020, 07:37:47 PM
Not to mention their own oil.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on August 13, 2020, 01:18:46 AM
The YouGov poll, for The Times Scotland, found 53%, excluding "don't knows" , would vote for independence.
That's the fourth poll in a row showing yes higher than no and from all the polling majors.
And whatever about the absolute numbers all are moving in the same direction.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Franko on August 13, 2020, 12:16:07 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 07, 2020, 05:53:04 PM
Quote from: ned on July 07, 2020, 01:29:33 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 11:27:18 PM
Quote from: ned on July 06, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: michaelg on July 06, 2020, 12:48:48 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on July 05, 2020, 02:21:17 PM
The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.
I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.
Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Scottish people received financial support because they are still part of the UK and still pay their dues (in fact many reports suggest Scotland contributes more than it receives back), just like the Welsh. They received what they were entitled to, no more or no less than anyone else in the UK. So why should that equate to Scots suddenly thinking that independence isn't worth pursuing anymore? In fact for the shambolic job the present Tory government has made of pandemic management and how they are going to shaft who they have to with Brexit negotiations, including the northern Irish, there is even more reason to want away as recent polls suggest. The union is done and thank f**k for that.
As there is no guarantee that an independent Scotland will be as well off economically and Scots are seeing first hand the safety net that the Union provides.  I would imagine that the same thought has occurred to a few folk in NI too.

What safety net would this be?  The same one which has allowed the Scots to be part of the 'country' with one of the worst records IN THE WORLD covid-wise?  If that's what unionists are clinging to to support their argument, they really are fcuked.

I'd usually not indulge in fantasy, but at this stage I would be fairly confident that Brexit and BoJo are going to be the catalyst which heralds the end of the union.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on October 14, 2020, 08:06:49 PM
Quote from: Franko on August 13, 2020, 12:16:07 PM
I'd usually not indulge in fantasy, but at this stage I would be fairly confident that Brexit and BoJo are going to be the catalyst which heralds the end of the union.

You might be right the most recent poll by Ipsos Mori is 55 per cent back separation, with 39 per cent for staying and only 6 per cent don't know. 
The don't knows seem to be drifting into the indy camp and the number is increasing with each poll.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on October 14, 2020, 08:08:18 PM
Excellent news.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on October 14, 2020, 08:22:51 PM
There is a definite trend, but it would need to carry on for a bit longer.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c2/Scottish_independence_polling_with_local_regression_fit.png/1050px-Scottish_independence_polling_with_local_regression_fit.png)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on October 14, 2020, 08:45:22 PM
It's easy saying yes on a questionnaire but when it comes to putting an 'X'.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jell 0 Biafra on October 14, 2020, 08:49:07 PM
Yes, but the fear of putting the x the last time was largely through being told they wouldn't be able to continue on as part of the EU.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on October 14, 2020, 09:21:40 PM
I wouldn't dismiss the polls but I would temper some of the excitement.

The political campaign for independence is organised and funded 24/7. It is largely coalesced in a single party. So the case for independence is always being made.

The "remain" side is the opposite. It rallies (and overcomes its other differences) for a referendum. The Leave poll lead needs to be sustained and significant as you would expect it to be chipped away to some extent in a referendum campaign.

Also the remain side know what they have to do when a referendum is called. Last time out SNP couldn't name the currency that an independent Scotland would have. They still can't. It was considered likely that it would have to be the Euro but the idea of adopting the euro didn't play as well as eu membership.

UK has its economic difficulties and I'm not minimising them but so does Scottish nationalism. Last time out SNP promised a national reserve based on an estimated oil price. Coincidentally (absolutely nothing to do with Scotland) oil prices collapsed in the days after the last referendum and never recovered. Not only can the next referendum strategy for SNP not rely on the magic money tree of oil but a Remain campaign can use the previous campaign promises to embarrass the SNP ie look at what would have happen if the SNP promises had been believed before???

SNP will need a whole new economic argument. Whatever it is they will be asked if is so good why did they not use it the last time??

This won't be simple.

And there is Brexit. SNP rightly make good political capital out of the nationalism of brexiteers, their simplistic promises, bold promises and the real difficulty of negotiating the hard detail. An independent Scotland (outside but looking to join the EU) will have hellish difficulty negotiating what is going to happen on the English/Scottish border. Brexit is not a one way street for SNP.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Chief on October 15, 2020, 09:24:23 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on October 14, 2020, 09:21:40 PM
I wouldn't dismiss the polls but I would temper some of the excitement.

The political campaign for independence is organised and funded 24/7. It is largely coalesced in a single party. So the case for independence is always being made.

The "remain" side is the opposite. It rallies (and overcomes its other differences) for a referendum. The Leave poll lead needs to be sustained and significant as you would expect it to be chipped away to some extent in a referendum campaign.

Also the remain side know what they have to do when a referendum is called. Last time out SNP couldn't name the currency that an independent Scotland would have. They still can't. It was considered likely that it would have to be the Euro but the idea of adopting the euro didn't play as well as eu membership.

UK has its economic difficulties and I'm not minimising them but so does Scottish nationalism. Last time out SNP promised a national reserve based on an estimated oil price. Coincidentally (absolutely nothing to do with Scotland) oil prices collapsed in the days after the last referendum and never recovered. Not only can the next referendum strategy for SNP not rely on the magic money tree of oil but a Remain campaign can use the previous campaign promises to embarrass the SNP ie look at what would have happen if the SNP promises had been believed before???

SNP will need a whole new economic argument. Whatever it is they will be asked if is so good why did they not use it the last time??

This won't be simple.

And there is Brexit. SNP rightly make good political capital out of the nationalism of brexiteers, their simplistic promises, bold promises and the real difficulty of negotiating the hard detail. An independent Scotland (outside but looking to join the EU) will have hellish difficulty negotiating what is going to happen on the English/Scottish border. Brexit is not a one way street for SNP.

Surely if the SNP want to frame these issues in a Brexit light, then they peg a new Scottish currency (e.g. Scottish pound) to the Euro and mirror England's border arrangements with the EU?

That way they minimise the friction to rejoining the EU.

Be hard for Boris to claim England can make a success of those border arrangements but Scotland couldn't.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on October 15, 2020, 11:03:07 AM
Quote from: Chief on October 15, 2020, 09:24:23 AM
Surely if the SNP want to frame these issues in a Brexit light, then they peg a new Scottish currency (e.g. Scottish pound) to the Euro and mirror England's border arrangements with the EU?

That way they minimise the friction to rejoining the EU.

Be hard for Boris to claim England can make a success of those border arrangements but Scotland couldn't.

I'm sure that Scotland would benefit from independence in the longer term, but they have a huge problem in the short term. It is easy to say that they should mirror England's border arrangements with the EU, yet these are a cause of concern in the ROI with 7% of trade going to England, Scotland has  8 times that. Many believe that trade will reduce with these arrangements and that could cause huge damage in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland's best time will come in a couple of years when England realises that blocking trade with the EU is stupid.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on October 15, 2020, 12:01:50 PM
Quote from: Chief on October 15, 2020, 09:24:23 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on October 14, 2020, 09:21:40 PM
I wouldn't dismiss the polls but I would temper some of the excitement.

The political campaign for independence is organised and funded 24/7. It is largely coalesced in a single party. So the case for independence is always being made.

The "remain" side is the opposite. It rallies (and overcomes its other differences) for a referendum. The Leave poll lead needs to be sustained and significant as you would expect it to be chipped away to some extent in a referendum campaign.

Also the remain side know what they have to do when a referendum is called. Last time out SNP couldn't name the currency that an independent Scotland would have. They still can't. It was considered likely that it would have to be the Euro but the idea of adopting the euro didn't play as well as eu membership.

UK has its economic difficulties and I'm not minimising them but so does Scottish nationalism. Last time out SNP promised a national reserve based on an estimated oil price. Coincidentally (absolutely nothing to do with Scotland) oil prices collapsed in the days after the last referendum and never recovered. Not only can the next referendum strategy for SNP not rely on the magic money tree of oil but a Remain campaign can use the previous campaign promises to embarrass the SNP ie look at what would have happen if the SNP promises had been believed before???

SNP will need a whole new economic argument. Whatever it is they will be asked if is so good why did they not use it the last time??

This won't be simple.

And there is Brexit. SNP rightly make good political capital out of the nationalism of brexiteers, their simplistic promises, bold promises and the real difficulty of negotiating the hard detail. An independent Scotland (outside but looking to join the EU) will have hellish difficulty negotiating what is going to happen on the English/Scottish border. Brexit is not a one way street for SNP.

Surely if the SNP want to frame these issues in a Brexit light, then they peg a new Scottish currency (e.g. Scottish pound) to the Euro and mirror England's border arrangements with the EU?

That way they minimise the friction to rejoining the EU.

Be hard for Boris to claim England can make a success of those border arrangements but Scotland couldn't.

Pegging a currency is no small matter especially in today's world. Bank of England didn't have the resources to do it on Black Wednesday. Given that the central bank of Scotland would be starting from scratch it would be a challenge and would that the market vultures would circle around.

There are no English border arrangements with the EU. There are temporary UK measures. The difficulties of converting temporary to enduring. The UK measures include the land border with ROI. The volumes between Scotland and England are massive relative to that. Also the importance of the wider UK is much more important to Scotland than it is to RoI.

Brexit helps SNP as it increases Scottish alienation with London but it creates massive issues for them in that it magnifies rather than answers the questions they couldn't answer the last time.

Brexit makes people ask for the detail before a referendum. SNP don't currently have the answers
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 01:12:58 PM
Hopefully the Scots will have their next Referendum asap and hopefully will vote for Independence for their Country which is the normal situation for Countries.
They wont become Ibdependent 5 minutes after the last vote us counted.
There will be a "divorce" settlement/transition period when loads of things will have to be worked out like the setting up of the Saorstát in the 1920s, Maltese and Cypriot Independence or the divorce between Czechs and Slovaks.
While the SNP have been the main advocates of Independence/normality more impatient elements have arisen since Brexit and Bozo who are fed up of their Country bring treated as another Shire of England.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Franko on October 15, 2020, 01:39:15 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 01:12:58 PM
Hopefully the Scits will have their next Referendum asap and hopefully will vote for Independence for their Country which is the normal situation for Countries.
They wont become Ibdependent 5 minutes after the last vote us counted.
There will be a "divorce" settlement/transition period when loads of things will have to be worked out like the setting up of the Saorstát in the 1920s, Maltese and Cypriot Independence or the divorce between Czechs and Slovaks.
While the SNP have been the main advocates of Independence/normality more impatient elements have arisen since Brexit and Bozo who are fed up of their Country bring treated as another Shire of England.

Big fan of the Scots becoming independent but the deal needs to be thrashed out before they sign.  Brexit has taught us that.

The Scots that vote yes need to know exactly what they are voting for.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on October 15, 2020, 05:28:22 PM
Nail on head there Franko.

The debate hasn't really started. There is an ongoing one sided debate. That is not a complaint it's just the way things are.

But Brexit has created the route map for say Labour and LibDems in Scotland (less so the Tories). They can point out that the questions have to be answered before the referendum. It difficult to see where the credible answers are going from. The starting gun hasn't fired on this one but I would suggest that Brexit would need to fade in the mind before SNP risked a referendum
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 05:29:07 PM
All SNP/Holyrood can do is put out their proposals what an Independent Scotland would look like, currency etc.
However Westminster will hardly do any deal till the vote is held and Independence wins.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on October 15, 2020, 05:39:58 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 05:29:07 PM
All SNP/Holyrood can do is put out their proposals what an Independent Scotland would look like, currency etc.
However Westminster will hardly do any deal till the vote is held and Independence wins.

That's a bit of a problem for the SNP then.

Can't see the swing voter buying an "it will be all right on the night" manifesto
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 06:48:14 PM
There won't be a "night" if there isn't an Independence vote first.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Chief on October 15, 2020, 06:50:01 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on October 15, 2020, 05:39:58 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 05:29:07 PM
All SNP/Holyrood can do is put out their proposals what an Independent Scotland would look like, currency etc.
However Westminster will hardly do any deal till the vote is held and Independence wins.

That's a bit of a problem for the SNP then.

Can't see the swing voter buying an "it will be all right on the night" manifesto

Depends how content they are with the status quo I guess.

The advantage the SNP have is that they are presenting a positive hopeful vision - something which I think people will find appealing at present.

Unionists on the other hand, will probably default to the Project Fear in the mould of Cameron/Osborne.
A promise of DevoMax / Home Rule is probably a busted flush for them now too.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 06:55:28 PM
I think the "Independence is normal" view is gaining traction and also a feeling of "Why can't our Parliament be the same as Ireland, Denmark etc" i.e run the Country.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: michaelg on October 15, 2020, 07:02:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 06:55:28 PM
I think the "Independence is normal" view is gaining traction and also a feeling of "Why can't our Parliament be the same as Ireland, Denmark etc" i.e run the Country.
Says the man living in the midle of Ireland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on October 15, 2020, 07:06:53 PM
Quote from: michaelg on October 15, 2020, 07:02:53 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 06:55:28 PM
I think the "Independence is normal" view is gaining traction and also a feeling of "Why can't our Parliament be the same as Ireland, Denmark etc" i.e run the Country.
Says the man living in the midle of Ireland.
Says the man living in the North of Ireland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 07:19:54 PM
It is a fact that a clear majority of scottish born voters  living in Scotland voted yes in the last referendum

There are too many English born living in Scotland with a vote and voting against the will of the majority. Typical English inbred imperial condescending mentality, they think they know what's better for the natives than the natives themselves.
What to do, ban them from voting unless they have tartan blood? 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 08:07:20 PM
That could go wrong as Tories want all Scots living in England/Wales/NE Ireland to have a vote in the belief that they'd be No voters.
Mind you there's an "English Scots for Yes" and even a "Celtic and Rangers for yes" groups which took part in the big marches before Covid.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: clonadmad on October 15, 2020, 08:08:29 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 07:19:54 PM
It is a fact that a clear majority of scottish born voters  living in Scotland voted yes in the last referendum

There are too many English born living in Scotland with a vote and voting against the will of the majority. Typical English inbred imperial condescending mentality, they think they know what's better for the natives than the natives themselves.
What to do, ban them from voting unless they have tartan blood?

Have a UK wide vote

You'd have an Independent Scotland in the morning
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on October 15, 2020, 08:16:34 PM
Quote from: clonadmad on October 15, 2020, 08:08:29 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 07:19:54 PM
It is a fact that a clear majority of scottish born voters  living in Scotland voted yes in the last referendum

There are too many English born living in Scotland with a vote and voting against the will of the majority. Typical English inbred imperial condescending mentality, they think they know what's better for the natives than the natives themselves.
What to do, ban them from voting unless they have tartan blood?

Have a UK wide vote

You'd have an Independent Scotland in the morning

notwithstanding the large majority against in East Antrim.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: clonadmad on October 15, 2020, 08:45:26 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 15, 2020, 08:16:34 PM
Quote from: clonadmad on October 15, 2020, 08:08:29 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 07:19:54 PM
It is a fact that a clear majority of scottish born voters  living in Scotland voted yes in the last referendum

There are too many English born living in Scotland with a vote and voting against the will of the majority. Typical English inbred imperial condescending mentality, they think they know what's better for the natives than the natives themselves.
What to do, ban them from voting unless they have tartan blood?

Have a UK wide vote

You'd have an Independent Scotland in the morning

notwithstanding the large majority against in East Antrim.

They'd have to vote early and often to outgun the English who want shut of the Scots
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 11:08:49 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on October 15, 2020, 08:07:20 PM
That could go wrong as Tories want all Scots living in England/Wales/NE Ireland to have a vote in the belief that they'd be No voters.
Mind you there's an "English Scots for Yes" and even a "Celtic and Rangers for yes" groups which took part in the big marches before Covid.
Scots living elsewhere in the UK  already have the vote in a referendum and research shows that they voted overwhelmingly against independence.
I say restrict the voting eligibility to Scot born and resident in Scotland. For instance how can you let your invader and occupier the right to vote for your nation's future?

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-figures-revealed-majority-5408163
'52.7 per cent of native-born Scots voted Yes, a massive 72.1 per cent of voters from England, Wales or Northern Ireland backed the Union.
And if they cast their ballots in line with the findings of the Edinburgh University study,
more than 300,000 of them will have voted No.
That's a significant number in a contest that ended with 2,001,926 votes for No and 1,617,989 for Yes.
Voters born outside the UK also rejected independence, with 57.1 per cent voting No.
'
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on October 15, 2020, 11:18:19 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 11:08:49 PM
Voters born outside the UK also rejected independence, with 57.1 per cent voting No.[/i]'

This might now be different for European born people, who might like the idea of being back in the EU.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on October 16, 2020, 12:02:41 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on October 15, 2020, 11:18:19 PM
Quote from: Main Street on October 15, 2020, 11:08:49 PM
Voters born outside the UK also rejected independence, with 57.1 per cent voting No.[/i]'

This might now be different for European born people, who might like the idea of being back in the EU.
Do we presume that most of those born outside UK were born in the EU? Probably so. I'd wonder what were the voting figures for Irish born, now resident in Scotland and eligible to vote, though not counting the predictable rabid nordie unionists.

I think the SNP should go on the front foot and demand that the westminister parliament accept that in the event of a yes vote,  any Scot born shall retain the full right to British nationality should they so chose, similar to what exists for Irish people born in the 6 counties.
The Brits are supposed to care for their own.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on October 16, 2020, 08:38:07 AM
Scottish born only to get the vote! f**k that. Half of Donegal lives in Glasgow.
It's all very patronising telling people in Scotland they couldn't survive outside the union. Economically Scotland is stronger than a lot of English areas.
Also more is generated in Scotland for government coffers than is returned. Add Westminster's handling of Brexit and the Pandemic (SNP doesn't escape criticism here) and their plans to reign back a Scottish government's powers, then we are beginning to experience the right conditions for Independence. The No side has no one in Scotland capable of putting forward their argument. Labour is done and the LDs are irrelevant.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on October 16, 2020, 09:01:50 AM
Out of interest do all the voters from the SNP vote independence ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on January 15, 2021, 11:42:09 AM
18th poll in a row showing majority for independence

Yes 51% (-1)
No 38% (-)
Undecided 10% (-)

w/o Undecided
Yes 57% (-1)
No 43% (+1)


SNP to get majority in election

SNP 53% (-2)
Conservative 19% (-1)
Labour 18% (+2)
LD 6% (-)
Other 4% (+1)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on January 28, 2021, 06:15:37 PM
Does the SNP calling out Bojo today for his visit to a Vaccine factory in Scotland as unnecessary travel seem a bit wankerish?? Not sure what they think that will achieve tbh.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on January 28, 2021, 06:40:37 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on January 28, 2021, 06:15:37 PM
Does the SNP calling out Bojo today for his visit to a Vaccine factory in Scotland as unnecessary travel seem a bit wankerish?? Not sure what they think that will achieve tbh.
Not in the slightest. Considering the only purpose of his trip was to try and butter people up. He reckons the independence debate is  'irrelevant' to most Scots
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on January 28, 2021, 06:43:00 PM
I thought he went to "save the union"? ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: BennyCake on January 28, 2021, 09:21:12 PM
I'd say most Scots are more concerned these days with staying alive, keeping their jobs, feeding their families and trying not to go away in the head.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on January 28, 2021, 09:22:52 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1354463362256695296
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on January 30, 2021, 12:02:09 PM
Johnson can't even lie competently as he mumbles and stumbles his way around a laboratory in Scotland with his hair in a mess, telling the Scots that they have never had it so good, are fed up with all this pointless constitutional wrangling and don't want another referendum.

Meanwhile as the support for an independent Scotland goes up another notch and the Scot Tory support sinks even lower, campaigners let it be known that their best course of action is to follow  Napoleon's advice  "never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on January 30, 2021, 12:04:49 PM
Yeah I honestly think Johnson visiting Scotland was probably a boost for the SNP lol.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: grounded on January 30, 2021, 02:06:59 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 28, 2021, 09:22:52 PM
https://mobile.twitter.com/JaneyGodley/status/1354463362256695296

That was actually a good laugh
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on January 30, 2021, 04:13:26 PM
Salmond could be a huge thorn in Sturgeon & the SNP's side for a while, he will undoubtedly be assisted by all pro-union media. Sturgeon gets brought down and it's hard to see who else can deliver Independence.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lar Naparka on January 31, 2021, 12:35:03 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on January 30, 2021, 04:13:26 PM
Salmond could be a huge thorn in Sturgeon & the SNP's side for a while, he will undoubtedly be assisted by all pro-union media. Sturgeon gets brought down and it's hard to see who else can deliver Independence.
I admit that I am totally clueless here. I thought Salmond was pro-independence as well as Sturgeon and that their differences were down to personal issues. Am I missing something?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on January 31, 2021, 04:17:19 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on January 31, 2021, 12:35:03 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on January 30, 2021, 04:13:26 PM
Salmond could be a huge thorn in Sturgeon & the SNP's side for a while, he will undoubtedly be assisted by all pro-union media. Sturgeon gets brought down and it's hard to see who else can deliver Independence.
I admit that I am totally clueless here. I thought Salmond was pro-independence as well as Sturgeon and that their differences were down to personal issues. Am I missing something?

No. It just suits the union side to have SNP bickering front and centre as they know this is their best chance of winning any future referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on January 31, 2021, 07:33:54 PM
Salmond is about Salmond first.   
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: restorepride on February 01, 2021, 11:27:01 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on January 30, 2021, 12:04:49 PM
Yeah I honestly think Johnson visiting Scotland was probably a boost for the SNP lol.
+1
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 03, 2021, 10:45:23 AM
Joanna Cherry: Abrupt sacking of high-profile MP threatens to inflame the SNP's civil war

https://news.sky.com/story/joanna-cherry-abrupt-sacking-of-high-profile-mp-threatens-to-inflame-the-snps-civil-war-12205908
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on February 03, 2021, 10:57:51 AM
If ever there was a time for them all to pull together this is it.
After Independence they can split and fight away for themselves.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on February 03, 2021, 10:16:11 PM
It could also be Nicola righteously kicking ass, time will tell.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 23, 2021, 07:48:42 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on January 30, 2021, 04:13:26 PM
Salmond could be a huge thorn in Sturgeon & the SNP's side for a while, he will undoubtedly be assisted by all pro-union media. Sturgeon gets brought down and it's hard to see who else can deliver Independence.
The dark forces are amassing. The shit is hitting the fan in Scotland with the SNP & our Nicola being accused of all sorts of skullduggery. Andrew Neil is on a mission, his twitter feed is worth a read.

BBC News - Alex Salmond alleges 'malicious' attempt to damage him
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56163460
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on February 23, 2021, 09:01:58 PM
Salmond's coming across as a thoroughly despicable character, arrogantly whining about this and that procedure, ranting about conspiracies, meanwhile left in the shadows is the testimony of 9 women that did not prove conclusively in a court of law that he abused them.  Yet the testimony still stands and the women stand firm together behind that testimony not a part of any conspiracy to frame him.
He's a little fat bully boy  with no evidence.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Kidder81 on February 23, 2021, 09:09:38 PM
Sturgeon has been lying through her teeth
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on February 23, 2021, 09:16:59 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 23, 2021, 07:48:42 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on January 30, 2021, 04:13:26 PM
Salmond could be a huge thorn in Sturgeon & the SNP's side for a while, he will undoubtedly be assisted by all pro-union media. Sturgeon gets brought down and it's hard to see who else can deliver Independence.
The dark forces are amassing. The shit is hitting the fan in Scotland with the SNP & our Nicola being accused of all sorts of skullduggery. Andrew Neil is on a mission, his twitter feed is worth a read.

BBC News - Alex Salmond alleges 'malicious' attempt to damage him
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56163460

Funny how it all comes to a head at a time when the SNP are preparing for what should be a landslide election, and onwards to increased demands for an IndyRef2.  Coincidental, I'm sure! ...

'We're bought and we're sold for English gold, such a parcel of rogues in a nation'
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Godsown on February 23, 2021, 09:30:36 PM
Is Alex the Denis Donaldson of the Scottish Independence Movement. Some timing all this. Maybe even a Stakeknife
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on February 23, 2021, 09:34:59 PM
Quote from: Godsown on February 23, 2021, 09:30:36 PM
Is Alex the Denis Donaldson of the Scottish Independence Movement. Some timing all this. Maybe even a Stakeknife
Both who, at life's end were tagged with the highest status of ignomy.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Godsown on February 23, 2021, 09:48:44 PM
Eloquently put Main Street. Just wonder what dark arts are at play some times.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on February 24, 2021, 08:01:23 AM

   https://www.ft.com/content/2b88ed4d-9857-44e8-b191-3fd577ae76e6

   Michael Keating, author of a forthcoming book on the fracturing union, said support for independence was being driven by Brexit, growing political identification with Scotland and the alienation of many Scots from successive UK governments.

"The fortunes of the SNP or individuals may affect the precise timing . . . but there are forces that are pulling the union apart that are much more powerful than any of these day-to-day events," Keating said.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: mouview on February 24, 2021, 09:32:33 AM
Could Scotland regain independence, join the EU and remain a member of the Commonwealth?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on February 24, 2021, 10:11:23 AM
Quote from: mouview on February 24, 2021, 09:32:33 AM
Could Scotland regain independence, join the EU and remain a member of the Commonwealth?
I don't see why not?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bogball88 on February 24, 2021, 10:17:56 AM
Quote from: mouview on February 24, 2021, 09:32:33 AM
Could Scotland regain independence, join the EU and remain a member of the Commonwealth?
Lengthy process for countries who are looking to join EU, takes the guts of 20 years IIRC.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on February 24, 2021, 10:32:03 AM
Depends when Scotland becomes Independent.
Early and they'll be fast tracked into EU (as a former part of it and a replacement for "U"K.)

The more support for Independence the more the dirt will be thrown by the BRITISH BC, other Media and useful renegade Scots.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Godsown on February 24, 2021, 10:39:57 AM
The whole thing will get very messy. This particular brand of conservatism will plumb any depths for their own agenda and know they will get away with it. None of them are held to account and no doubt Cummings and his like are in the background.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on February 24, 2021, 11:27:10 AM
So far, everything Johnson has done has boosted the drive in support for independence.  Appointing Cummings, the brains behind the Brexit campaign,  into a  save the union campaign in a country which has voted 62% to remain,  would likely inspire a particular revolting effect. Recent polls in Scotland indicate that a solid 63% would vote in a referendum  to return to the EU. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: five points on February 24, 2021, 11:31:44 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 24, 2021, 11:27:10 AM
So far, everything Johnson has done has boosted the drive in support for independence.  Appointing Cummings, the brains behind the Brexit campaign,  into a  save the union campaign in a country which has voted 62% to remain,  would likely inspire a particular revolting effect. Recent polls in Scotland indicate that a solid 63% would vote in a referendum  to return to the EU.

Before or after the vaccine fiasco?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 25, 2021, 08:02:29 AM
Andrew Neil Opinion piece in the Mail about the current shenanigans

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1364823729704951810?s=09

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on February 25, 2021, 09:21:56 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 25, 2021, 08:02:29 AM
Andrew Neil Opinion piece in the Mail about the current shenanigans

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1364823729704951810?s=09

The ministerial code is now sacrosanct but when Hancock and the crony contract culture was exposed as being illegal it wasn't so.

The SNP may have been in coverup mode but the London based media are out to get them in a big way no more so that Uncle Toms Andrew Neil and his Spectator editor..

Double standards.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Godsown on February 25, 2021, 10:18:25 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 24, 2021, 11:27:10 AM
So far, everything Johnson has done has boosted the drive in support for independence.  Appointing Cummings, the brains behind the Brexit campaign,  into a  save the union campaign in a country which has voted 62% to remain,  would likely inspire a particular revolting effect. Recent polls in Scotland indicate that a solid 63% would vote in a referendum  to return to the EU.

Certainly wouldn't see Cummings as the Face of anti independence campaign, but it is the work that the likes of him and the Steve Bannons of the world do in the dark recesses and with manipulation of the media and social media that has proved to be so effective in championing division and lies that would be of concern
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on February 25, 2021, 02:20:40 PM
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19117515.snp-support-stays-strong-ipsos-mori-voting-intentions-poll/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: pbat on February 25, 2021, 03:35:31 PM
I think MI5 or MI6 are all over Scottish politics
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on February 25, 2021, 05:21:48 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on February 25, 2021, 09:21:56 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 25, 2021, 08:02:29 AM
Andrew Neil Opinion piece in the Mail about the current shenanigans

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1364823729704951810?s=09

The ministerial code is now sacrosanct but when Hancock and the crony contract culture was exposed as being illegal it wasn't so.

The SNP may have been in coverup mode but the London based media are out to get them in a big way no more so that Uncle Toms Andrew Neil and his Spectator editor..

Double standards.

The Tory media appear to be very exercised by affairs in Scotland. In the Spectator there's 3 of the top 5 articles about the troublesome rebellious Scots, giving account to Machiavellian Nicola and the support machinations of the SNP.   Neil et al must get paid by the word.

Unfortunately for them, Salmond's  presenting a Trudy and Sid line of attack, that it was all a conspiracy,  Nicola, her husband, SNP, the crown prosecution and the 14 women, all conspiring together to get Salmond locked away and nothing of substance offered to support except for the unbelievable conspiracy tale itself.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 25, 2021, 05:44:06 PM
It's the independence of the Crown Service, that's really being questioned, there's a view that they are working hand in glove with the SNP Government on this, when they are supposedly an Independent Judiciary.

Andrew Neil is one of the best interviewers I have ever seen, he scares the shite out of left & right and holds them all to account - this however appears personal to me, he's an unabashed Scottish Unionist and despises the SNP with a passion. He's convinced if they bring Nicola down the notion of Independence is over for a long time.

It is of course all a bit rich considering what the Tories get away with in national Government.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on February 25, 2021, 05:55:12 PM
Independence us hardly depending on 1 person.
Are the Greens not also in "Government" in Scotland or do they just support the SNP in votes?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 25, 2021, 06:33:27 PM
Think it's officially a minority government. The Greens are pro-Independence bedfellows anyway, so probably an unwritten agreement.

The SNP have had 2 great leaders in Salmond & Nicola, I dunno much about the talent in the Holyrood tbh, but Ian Blackford the leader in the HOC doesn't impress me. I think Andrew Neil & co think if she goes the Independence movement is badly damaged.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on February 25, 2021, 07:04:58 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 25, 2021, 05:44:06 PM
It's the independence of the Crown Service, that's really being questioned, there's a view that they are working hand in glove with the SNP Government on this, when they are supposedly an Independent Judiciary.

Andrew Neil is one of the best interviewers I have ever seen, he scares the shite out of left & right and holds them all to account - this however appears personal to me, he's an unabashed Scottish Unionist and despises the SNP with a passion. He's convinced if they bring Nicola down the notion of Independence is over for a long time.

It is of course all a bit rich considering what the Tories get away with in national Government.
Regardless who was authorized to investigate, the allegations were so serious it was imperative to investigate them and when you read the witness statements of the women  it was a rational choice  to prosecute. Salmond is claiming conspiracy with not a morsel of evidence to support his claim, and  it follows that his claims of prosecution conspiracy imply the women were in on the conspiracy from the beginning. The Crown/SNP conspiracy would not be complete unless the women were a part of it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on February 25, 2021, 11:02:46 PM
Quote from: pbat on February 25, 2021, 03:35:31 PM
I think MI5 or MI6 are all over Scottish politics

Guaranteed.  Anything which threatens England's interests will ensure their security services are unleashed, there'll be all sorts of black arts and dirty tricks perpetrated in the near future.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: sid waddell on February 25, 2021, 11:53:27 PM
Quote from: pbat on February 25, 2021, 03:35:31 PM
I think MI5 or MI6 are all over Scottish politics
Well Alex Salmond does work for RT, which is a bit of a red flag
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 26, 2021, 10:44:41 AM
Alaistair Campbell

I hold no candle for the @theSNP and the Salmond-Sturgeon story is clearly important and newsworthy. But my God compare and contrast the right wing media and @BBCNews coverage with the comparative lack thereof of @SuellaBraverman re Cummings, @pritipatel breach min code ... 1/2

.. the entire govt prepared to break law Re N Ireland/Brexit and @MattHancock found to have broken law but said it was ok cos he was in a hurry. I know @afneil has a dog in this fight but if there is a 'Banana Republic' right now it stems from London 2/2
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 11, 2021, 12:22:44 PM
Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 12:56:36 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on March 11, 2021, 12:22:44 PM
Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

This is lower figure for independence than in recent months, this reflects London making sure the split between Salmond and Sturgeon is well publicised.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on March 11, 2021, 01:56:33 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 12:56:36 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on March 11, 2021, 12:22:44 PM
Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

This is lower figure for independence than in recent months, this reflects London making sure the split between Salmond and Sturgeon is well publicised.

Dirty business, and what else should we expect from an English government under pressure. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 11, 2021, 03:32:01 PM
We'd have a fair few centuries of experience anyway.
Hopefully by Election time Bozo will have the waverers back in the SNP/Independence camp.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 04:39:29 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 11, 2021, 03:32:01 PM
We'd have a fair few centuries of experience anyway.
Hopefully by Election time Bozo will have the waverers back in the SNP/Independence camp.

Perhaps you  could have an alternate dirty tricks campaign and organise a big save the union meeting with Sammy Wilson as key speaker, maybe Gregory Campbell as well to get the non white folks interested.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 11, 2021, 05:19:41 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 12:56:36 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on March 11, 2021, 12:22:44 PM
Scottish independence voting intention (excl. undecideds):

Yes: 49% (-2)
No: 51% (+2)

via @YouGov, 04 - 08 Mar
Chgs. w/ Nov 2020
https://t.co/C4sCofH2RJ

All their hard work starting to pay off

This is lower figure for independence than in recent months, this reflects London making sure the split between Salmond and Sturgeon is well publicised.
Psy ops but Brexit is hammering  UK manufacturing and food processing
Loads of jobs will.be lost pointlessly in Scotland because of something they did not vote for
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on March 11, 2021, 05:49:29 PM
London's found 3 weak spots: the leader/ex leader feud (Celts always gift some in-frightening), the Catalan contradiction with EU, the EU slow vaccine rollout - another Gift to Brexit Britain. Expect these to be continuously hammered in media - to make the Scots think again, as their anthem goes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 06:56:25 PM
However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on March 12, 2021, 07:23:20 PM
Currently I think the SNP are now in a seriously difficult position in 3 ways:

(1)They had the voters for an SNP majority at Holyrood - but probably don't now.

I have spoken to at least 3 staunch SNP voters (1960s onwards), anti Salmond, but feel they have lost trust in the leadership and are turning to the Greens, or abstaining, or the new ISP and other minor parties (yes they are pro independence parties) but an SNP majority would stick some mustard on the sandwich for the Tories to think carefully about. A coalition (especially with crooked Nicola about) could fall at any time. On top of this the anti independence alliance is in full swing with labour and the Tories set to take vital seats in East Lothian and possibly Perthshire. These are so small margins that the Salmond incident has without a doubt impacted on the vote.

(2) The SNP internally is a mess

At the last party conference the Pro Salmond/Cherry group won the popular vote for the party executive/ officer board. Nicola and her husband are now controlled by an anti Nicola officer board.  Joanna Cherry is very cunning right now. I think legally she is bright, but the people she associated herself with, Exept Aidan o Neill, are secret Tories at the top of the legal establishment. I really feel Nicola fears Cherry in everyway! The SNP front bench at Holyrood is clueless. Nicola, fair play to her, has surrounded herself with politicians/ ministers that are not up to it, so she comes out looking good and none of them can challenge her.  The Education portfolio  doesn't make good reading at all for the SNP. She (Nicola) of course will get a bump of her own personal popularity and her handling of Covid. But to summarise the SNP membership on Glasgow's South Side compared to say the SNP in Edinburgh South West or in Cowdenbeath/ Fife are pulling in completely different directions.

(3) Article 30

Forget about talk on currency (the SNP still haven't got to grips with) and other issues. There is only one issue in town for an SNP majority, coalition, or minority government, Article 30. Cherry is the only one actively seeking ways around this. When you look at home and the work of Irelands Future (whether you agree with it or not) some great work is  being done on discussing key issues and how they play out, avenues are being explored and researched, nothing like that is happening in Scotland.


Nicola is on her final parliamentary journey:

(1) SNP internally is split - Any reluctant towards the calling of a second referendum will not be accepted as they (SNP Membership) will move against her.
(2) If it is called and Tories refuse it (which they will) people will question why no work was done to find other avenues over the last 2/3 years around article 30.
(3) Lastly if one is called and the SNP loses Nicola will off course rightly carry the can.

The rise of the SNP from the early 1980s has been a journey worth visiting - but the more I reflect on things, posters here are pretty much on the money. The tactic that has always worked for the British government divide and conquer is working again. Scotland is politically divided yes, but it is the SNP divide that will finish Nicola and the SNP. 

Just some thoughts on a Friday evening after the first week of a no majority to  independence in god knows how long.

PS I would still love to see independence.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 12, 2021, 07:43:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 06:56:25 PM
However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.
The EEA would be stronger body, it's much more aligned with the EU regulation and economic market.  3 of the 4 EFTA countries are in the EEA.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 12, 2021, 08:44:04 PM
Quote from: weareros on March 11, 2021, 05:49:29 PM
London's found 3 weak spots: the leader/ex leader feud (Celts always gift some in-frightening), the Catalan contradiction with EU, the EU slow vaccine rollout - another Gift to Brexit Britain. Expect these to be continuously hammered in media - to make the Scots think again, as their anthem goes.

The underlying support for independence is more important than SNP internal politics.
The 2014 referendum was supposed to put the issue to bed for 30 years . Then Brexit happened.
In Ireland there was no going back after the 1916 leaders were executed.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 12, 2021, 09:27:00 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 12, 2021, 07:43:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 06:56:25 PM
However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.
The EEA would be stronger body, it's much more aligned with the EU regulation and economic market.  3 of the 4 EFTA countries are in the EEA.

Switzerland also follows most of the measures of the EEA. The EU will not allow such an à la carte approach again as it is messy, so if Scotland joins EFTA than it would also be joining the EEA.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 12, 2021, 09:50:57 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 12, 2021, 09:27:00 PM
Quote from: Main Street on March 12, 2021, 07:43:59 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 11, 2021, 06:56:25 PM
However, in the Brexit campaign people became aware of EFTA and Scotland would fit in well in EFTA even if there was a delay in joining the EU.
The EEA would be stronger body, it's much more aligned with the EU regulation and economic market.  3 of the 4 EFTA countries are in the EEA.

Switzerland also follows most of the measures of the EEA. The EU will not allow such an à la carte approach again as it is messy, so if Scotland joins EFTA than it would also be joining the EEA.
No, it does not follow that an EFTA member automatically joins EEA.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 17, 2021, 10:17:33 AM
David Davis stood in the HOC yesterday (under Parliamentary privilege) Reading out text messages related to the Salmond-Sturgeon from a 'whistle-blower'.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 17, 2021, 10:48:21 AM
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19165923.john-swinney-addresses-allegations-snp-made-tory-mp-david-davis/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 22, 2021, 04:57:30 PM
Draft Referendum Bill published and Nicola cleared of allegations of breaking Ministerial code.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: sid waddell on March 22, 2021, 05:00:24 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 22, 2021, 04:57:30 PM
Draft Referendum Bill published and Nicola cleared of allegations of breaking Ministerial code.
Time for Priti Patel to resign so

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on March 22, 2021, 10:38:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 22, 2021, 04:57:30 PM
Draft Referendum Bill published and Nicola cleared of allegations of breaking Ministerial code.
Nic was cleared by a neutral investigation.  It's the height of farce that any politician be investigated by a panel of  politicians, including opposition politicians who blatantly  put self intrest first and breach one of the the fundamental foundations of law and ethics, namely conflict of interest. When conflict of interest is breached, the ethics panel member should stand down immediately, yet this Scot parliament panel ploughed on with a blatantl overt bias against the accused and leaked documents to the  Brit government for crooked purposes. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on March 23, 2021, 09:46:35 AM
Quote from: Main Street on March 22, 2021, 10:38:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 22, 2021, 04:57:30 PM
Draft Referendum Bill published and Nicola cleared of allegations of breaking Ministerial code.
Nic was cleared by a neutral investigation.  It's the height of farce that any politician be investigated by a panel of  politicians, including opposition politicians who blatantly  put self intrest first and breach one of the the fundamental foundations of law and ethics, namely conflict of interest. When conflict of interest is breached, the ethics panel member should stand down immediately, yet this Scot parliament panel ploughed on with a blatantl overt bias against the accused and leaked documents to the  Brit government for crooked purposes.

Saw a few tweets from Andrew Neil. He must be gutted as he and the Spectator are gunning for Nicola for fear the SNP gain and outright majority in the Holyrood elections coming up.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 23, 2021, 02:05:42 PM
The Unionist parties think Andrew Neil is an asset - I'd imagine the Nationalists think he's an asset for them too. Interesting Election ahead.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: sid waddell on March 23, 2021, 02:26:55 PM
More than a bit hypocritical of Douglas Ross to reject the findings of the independent referee James Hamilton

Should be shown the red card for dissent

Andrew Neil is about as much of an asset to the Scottish Unionist campaign as Lord Haw Haw would be to a united Ireland campaign
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 26, 2021, 04:16:02 PM
Salmond must be getting money from MI5 or something.

BBC News - Former SNP leader Alex Salmond launches new political party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56539696
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: JPGJOHNNYG on March 26, 2021, 04:26:54 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on March 26, 2021, 04:16:02 PM
Salmond must be getting money from MI5 or something.

BBC News - Former SNP leader Alex Salmond launches new political party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-56539696

It wont be a bad thing in the long run. It may split some votes and cost Westminster seats but for every other election including a Referendum it can only help get more votes out
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on March 27, 2021, 02:35:07 PM
Kenny MacAskill MP (East Lothian) has left the Scottish National Party and joined the Alba Party.

Twitter - Britain Elects
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 10:52:08 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on March 27, 2021, 11:16:43 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 10:52:08 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 11:29:25 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 27, 2021, 11:16:43 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 10:52:08 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.
Thanks very much. I get the idea now.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on March 28, 2021, 09:20:22 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 11:29:25 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 27, 2021, 11:16:43 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 10:52:08 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.
Thanks very much. I get the idea now.

Although it is complicated further by splitting of the list vote, dependent on how many constituency MSPs are returned for that party. This means if a party sweeps the board in the constituency vote, their list vote may be diluted. Theory is this prevents one party winning a big majority unless they have a massive percentage of the vote. So in some areas, if you vote SNP, for example, it may be better giving your list vote to another party.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Lar Naparka on March 28, 2021, 09:44:25 AM
Quote from: ned on March 28, 2021, 09:20:22 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 11:29:25 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 27, 2021, 11:16:43 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 10:52:08 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.
Thanks very much. I get the idea now.

Although it is complicated further by splitting of the list vote, dependent on how many constituency MSPs are returned for that party. This means if a party sweeps the board in the constituency vote, their list vote may be diluted. Theory is this prevents one party winning a big majority unless they have a massive percentage of the vote. So in some areas, if you vote SNP, for example, it may be better giving your list vote to another party.
The process seems pretty complicated. How has it worked in practice? I assume it has been used in previous elections.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on March 28, 2021, 10:27:20 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 28, 2021, 09:44:25 AM
Quote from: ned on March 28, 2021, 09:20:22 AM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 11:29:25 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on March 27, 2021, 11:16:43 PM
Quote from: Lar Naparka on March 27, 2021, 10:52:08 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 26, 2021, 04:53:08 PM
I see they're only going to stand in the List oart of the election  so won't be splitting the votes in the Constituency part.

Hopefully things will go as per this Opinion poll
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19188728.snp-track-secure-majority-voters-put-trust-nicola-sturgeon/
Ross, I know as much about the Scottish referendum movement as sid does about the Irish Civil War so, as always, I turn to you for guidance.
List vs Constituency??
Can you please enlighten an ignoramus?

In Scotland they don't use STV multi-seat constituencies for the parliament although they do for the local councils.
The lists is a party list and is used to balance things up. So the Greens might not come first in any constituency, but a lot of people might support them and since they didn't win any constituency seats they would get a few on the list.

In the case of Salmond's new Alba party, if he ran in constituencies then he might split the nationalist vote and some Tory or Lib Dem might get in instead. But in the list it is multi seat and you could vote for the SNP guy in the constituency and plump for Alba on the list.
Thanks very much. I get the idea now.

Although it is complicated further by splitting of the list vote, dependent on how many constituency MSPs are returned for that party. This means if a party sweeps the board in the constituency vote, their list vote may be diluted. Theory is this prevents one party winning a big majority unless they have a massive percentage of the vote. So in some areas, if you vote SNP, for example, it may be better giving your list vote to another party.
The process seems pretty complicated. How has it worked in practice? I assume it has been used in previous elections.

It was brought in at inception of Scottish parliament, I think. Not quite proportional representation like Stormont. Idea was to prevent a scenario like UK parliament where one party can have just over 40% of the vote but still have a sizeable majority of MPs. Has kind of backfired with the rise of the SNP and the Yes/No division. It probably needs tweaked but not sure what to.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 28, 2021, 10:55:06 AM
You get 2 ballot papers, 1 for the constituency with the candidates names and you can only vote for 1 of them.
The second one is for a region (7 regions of 8 seats or 8 of 7) and you vote 1 and 2 for parties.
You can vote 1 and 2  for the same Party.
I'm not sure what they do with the number 2s but they seem to allocate the regional seats on a low to high constituency seats won basis.
It means over 40% of MSPs  aren't actually elected.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on March 28, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Ma asons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on March 28, 2021, 12:38:07 PM
If Scotland becomes independent the SNP is done anyway. It's too broad a spectrum of ideas to survive beyond independence.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 28, 2021, 12:59:18 PM
I suspect they'd be happy to break up in such circumstances ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: APM on March 28, 2021, 01:20:28 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on March 28, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Ma asons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

The funny thing is, it will probably be good for the independence movement to have a choice of parties. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on March 28, 2021, 01:37:06 PM
Quote from: APM on March 28, 2021, 01:20:28 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on March 28, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Ma asons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!

The funny thing is, it will probably be good for the independence movement to have a choice of parties.

It is, as voting SNP 1 and 2 for list dilutes their vote in some regions. In some cases should be SNP and Green 1 or 2 for pro independence. Wouldn't vote Salmond and Alba as he is an egotistical opportunist as much as the worst of the Tory twats.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on March 28, 2021, 04:00:37 PM
Nicola is the issue Ned. I respect your views and want an independent Scotland but she's one bollocks as much as he is get the pair of them to feck and get cherry (from Irish stock too ) in there Johnston will **** himself with her about before an article 30 declaration
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on April 02, 2021, 08:59:43 PM
Just to add been researching an article 30 and ways around it ..

This is going to go to the UK supreme court for a ruling (top 2 judges are currently Scottish as well)

SNP will try push through an independence bill, if there is a majority in Scottish Parliament then real fun and games times altogether.  The Unwritten UK constitution and all that Democracy v the rule of law, parliamentary sovereignty and all that as well. A political issue solved by a legal view 

Hopefully David Mc Keown can share his insight on this for us.

Board members should keep an eye on Aidan O Neill ( Nationalist at heart) pound  for pound the finest lawyer on these islands currently 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on April 03, 2021, 09:50:45 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on March 28, 2021, 11:56:34 AM
It's a win- win situation for salmond and his new gang, another disciplined gained this morning with the possibility of Joanna cherry coming over in the next couple of daysCjerry will be a huge lose to the SNP intellectually.


If they (Alba) get 1 or 2 elected it will be an achievement and the SNP will be fuming, If they don't well they may well take vital votes off the SNP

Whether you like salmond or not, or agree with him or not,  politically he took the SNP away for a vile secretarian party  on the same lines as the DUP in the 1970s etc to something more inclusive in the 1980 onwards

Many Irish catholics voted for labour due to this. O ne could argue this element of dirt within the SNP has now moved onto the Scottish tories. The Kirk of the Church of Scotland and the Masons are alive and well within the tories Fact!!
We know that one, they serve their Mason apprenticeship as SPL referees.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on April 29, 2021, 01:29:06 AM
Scots pulling back from independence, although they may be waiting for new plan to emerge post election at this stage.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 42% (-2)
No: 49% (+1)

via
@SavantaComRes
, 23 - 27 Apr
Chgs. w/ 20 Apr
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on April 29, 2021, 08:09:36 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 29, 2021, 01:29:06 AM
Scots pulling back from independence, although they may be waiting for new plan to emerge post election at this stage.

Scottish independence voting intention:

Yes: 42% (-2)
No: 49% (+1)

via
@SavantaComRes
, 23 - 27 Apr
Chgs. w/ 20 Apr


Not at all doubting your sources but there will be some spin flying about with MI5 etc involved over the next 2/3 months around Indy referendum 2 alot of fake news. John Curtise poll retweeted by Ns yesterday or Tuesday currently shows nationalist as in the SNP about 2  points off a single party majority but with greens and Alba will have around 4/5 seats to spare in pro Independence alliance majority that will give the bold Boris something to digest
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on April 29, 2021, 08:24:29 AM
Quote from: ned on March 28, 2021, 12:38:07 PM
If Scotland becomes independent the SNP is done anyway. It's too broad a spectrum of ideas to survive beyond independence.

Same as the original SF

If independence happens the unionist parties will become irrelevant
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 07, 2021, 04:57:31 PM
So far
SNP 21 seats
Lib Dem 3
Rest 0.
Some pundits predicting SNP won't make the overall majority.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 05:36:40 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 07, 2021, 04:57:31 PM
So far
SNP 21 seats
Lib Dem 3
Rest 0.
Some pundits predicting SNP won't make the overall majority.

They have taken one labour seat though, the trick is not to lose any.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 07, 2021, 05:42:15 PM
And now taken 1 Conservative one -Ayr.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 07:07:22 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it.

A constituency seat might just take away a SNP regional seat, the voters need to pile on to the Greens and Alba in this case.  The system was designed to not allow the SNP get a majority, after all.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on May 07, 2021, 07:08:23 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it.
+3 now. 1 more and holds everywhere would do it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on May 07, 2021, 09:46:19 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 07:07:22 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it.

A constituency seat might just take away a SNP regional seat, the voters need to pile on to the Greens and Alba in this case.  The system was designed to not allow the SNP get a majority, after all.

The system was in place before SNP held power but WAS designed to give more even spread of political voices.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 10:58:26 PM
Quote from: ned on May 07, 2021, 09:46:19 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 07:07:22 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it.

A constituency seat might just take away a SNP regional seat, the voters need to pile on to the Greens and Alba in this case.  The system was designed to not allow the SNP get a majority, after all.

The system was in place before SNP held power but WAS designed to give more even spread of political voices.

It was probably intended to stop Labour getting a big majority, back in the day.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 07, 2021, 11:54:08 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 10:58:26 PM
Quote from: ned on May 07, 2021, 09:46:19 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 07:07:22 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it.

A constituency seat might just take away a SNP regional seat, the voters need to pile on to the Greens and Alba in this case.  The system was designed to not allow the SNP get a majority, after all.

The system was in place before SNP held power but WAS designed to give more even spread of political voices.

It was probably intended to stop Labour getting a big majority, back in the day.

Total nonsense the Scotland Act 1998 is a brilliant piece of legislation designed by the pricks in Edinburgh law school by there former pupils to ensure labour would almost always be assure of at least 15/20 per cent of seats and actually to stop the tories and SNP  having a majority it was a defence mechanism by the Labour Party for the Labour Party
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on May 08, 2021, 02:14:14 AM
Duckworth - Lewis  is a piece of cake compared to the Scottish electorial system. The Greens do well on it considering they get 6 or so seats  with just few thousand 'first preferences'.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on May 08, 2021, 06:41:21 AM
Quote from: weareros on May 07, 2021, 07:08:23 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on May 07, 2021, 06:05:41 PM
They'd 61 in last parliament .... +2 at the min, it's going to be close either way by looks of it.
+3 now. 1 more and holds everywhere would do it.
They lost Dumbarton to tactical Tory voting for Labour.. Unionists are awful.hoors.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on May 08, 2021, 07:50:30 AM
Quote from: Main Street on May 08, 2021, 02:14:14 AM
Duckworth - Lewis  is a piece of cake compared to the Scottish electorial system. The Greens do well on it considering they get 6 or so seats  with just few thousand 'first preferences'.

Greens use the system to their advantage. Don't stand many candidates for the constituency votes.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on May 08, 2021, 11:28:48 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 07:07:22 PM
The system was designed to not allow the SNP get a majority, after all.

Explain to me the grounds on which that is not a great big lie?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on May 08, 2021, 11:54:00 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 08, 2021, 11:28:48 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 07, 2021, 07:07:22 PM
The system was designed to not allow the SNP get a majority, after all.

Explain to me the grounds on which that is not a great big lie?

The system was designed not be majoritarian and the SNP is a party that might get a majority. So it is not a lie, it may be a simplification.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on May 08, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just don't have the balls to go it alone.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 05:58:12 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just don't have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting it's a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 08, 2021, 06:03:45 PM
Looking like 62 of the 73 Constituency seats to SNP.
They may only get 2 of the List seats but Greens should come in with 8 or more.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on May 08, 2021, 06:06:11 PM
Curtice: Scotland 'divided down the middle' on independence

Professor Sir John Curtice

Polling expert

Once both sides finish celebrating their victories and commiserating on their failures, they should conclude that this election confirmed the message of the opinion polls – that Scotland is divided straight down the middle on the constitutional question.

We are going to end up in a situation where roughly 50% of people are going to vote for pro-independent parties and roughly 50% of people are going to vote in favour of unionist parties.

It is clear the constitutional question really matters – note the big turnout, and the tactical voting among unionist parties in order to keep the SNP out.

The unionists have been able to stop the SNP from getting an overall majority – despite them getting a record vote share in the constituencies. Ironically, one reason is because despite the claims from the unionists that the constitutional question wasn't the most important question facing Scotland, the voters have behaved in such a way that they quite clearly think it does.

It is pretty clear from the polls that virtually anybody who votes for the SNP and the Greens is in favour of independence, and virtually anybody who votes for Labour, the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats is opposed.

Add up the voters' totals when we get them and you will see it will be close to 50-50. So we are well and truly split over the constitutional question.

Therefore if we were to have a referendum at any point in the near future, both Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon would be taking the most enormous political gamble.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on May 08, 2021, 06:44:35 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 05:58:12 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just don't have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting it's a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. It's share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 07:02:59 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 06:44:35 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 05:58:12 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just don't have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting it's a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. It's share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

He's on BBc  election coverage now
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 08, 2021, 08:07:40 PM
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 08:50:11 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 08, 2021, 08:07:40 PM
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as it's in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on May 08, 2021, 09:50:24 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 08:50:11 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 08, 2021, 08:07:40 PM
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as it's in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

In my area SNP polled nearly 40% of vote but only one MSP elected out of a possible 7. Tactical voting won here.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on May 08, 2021, 09:52:17 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 06:44:35 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 05:58:12 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just don't have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting it's a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. It's share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

Greens received 8% in regional vote. You sound like a Tory picking and choosing stats.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on May 08, 2021, 09:55:13 PM
Should the SNP win 6 constituency seats in a region, then their regional vote is divided by 6. I see the Greens  received more than 8% of the regional vote, over 220,000.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on May 08, 2021, 11:19:11 PM
Quote from: ned on May 08, 2021, 09:52:17 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 06:44:35 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 05:58:12 PM
Quote from: weareros on May 08, 2021, 04:50:19 PM
Looks like the pro-Indy vote (SNP + Greens) will be under 50%. That will put kybosh on any chance of new referendum. Typical Scots - at the end of day they just don't have the balls to go it alone.

Clearly you need to stay of the drink pills or whatever your taking - 72 seats between them simple really to understand ..:: the tories and their former advisor are now admitting it's a when not an if !! If you get a chance there is an Irish fella Ciaran Martin at university of Oxford search his comments on Twitter tell you everything you need to know and he was the architect of the 2012 agreement to grant the 2014 referendum.
I want to see Scottish Independence. But I still say the Scots are too scared to go it alone. With the arrogance of Boris I would have thought they would send a clearer message. The Greens will have 9 seats or so but with less than 1% of vote. It's share of vote that will determine a referendum win and right now it looks about 51 to 49 to pro-Union. That just gives London the ammunition to deny. But I will look up what C Martin has to say.

Greens received 8% in regional vote. You sound like a Tory picking and choosing stats.

Just a realist. Hate Tory's as much as anyone. It was opportunity for Scots to send a decisive message. Like the last referendum and like the recent softening in Opinion Polls, you just can't trust the Scots to do the right thing. Would love to be proved wrong but I've no faith they'd pass Indy2 right now, at a time when it should be more convincing given Brexit and the arrogance of Tory's in denying self-determination.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 09, 2021, 09:10:43 AM
Quote from: ned on May 08, 2021, 09:50:24 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 08:50:11 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 08, 2021, 08:07:40 PM
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as it's in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

In my area SNP polled nearly 40% of vote but only one MSP elected out of a possible 7. Tactical voting won here.

Ned either  live in the south of Scotland/highlands and islands- if it's the south of Scotland I feel for you a Tory heartland
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on May 09, 2021, 01:00:19 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 09, 2021, 09:10:43 AM
Quote from: ned on May 08, 2021, 09:50:24 PM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 08, 2021, 08:50:11 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 08, 2021, 08:07:40 PM
What percentage did the Greens get in the Regional vote?
They didn't stand in most of the Constituencies.

Only really stood in Glasgow Kelvin which in reality would be traditionally a Tory seat as it's in the trendy west end upper class area. They just missed a second seat in Glasgow region as well by 0.3%.

Interesting the SNP got only 2 regional seats many of the votes diluted by the seats they won now if people had of voted Alba 2 in many of these areas particularly the central belt the tories would have lost probably 2/3 regional seats overall

In my area SNP polled nearly 40% of vote but only one MSP elected out of a possible 7. Tactical voting won here.

Ned either  live in the south of Scotland/highlands and islands- if it's the south of Scotland I feel for you a Tory heartland

South. Unfortunately the region included everything south of Glasgow and Edinburgh. Overall the parliament is a decent representation of national voting %s but SNP lost 2 decent MSP from this area.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 09, 2021, 01:11:27 PM
Should the SNP people have switched to Alba and Greens for list voting  in 6 of the Regions ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 09, 2021, 03:18:54 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on May 09, 2021, 01:11:27 PM
Should the SNP people have switched to Alba and Greens for list voting  in 6 of the Regions ?

Spot on Rossfan, tactical voting by the unionist parties should have been met with same thoughts by nationalists. I just hope that NS and the SNP are beginning serious work like Irelands future are doing on shaping the policies for the war ahead particularly in finance. This is the calm before the storm...
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on May 09, 2021, 09:41:31 PM
The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on May 09, 2021, 09:44:47 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 09, 2021, 09:41:31 PM
The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.
popcorn time
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: GJL on May 09, 2021, 09:50:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 09, 2021, 09:41:31 PM
The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.

Fingers crossed .  ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on May 10, 2021, 09:09:44 AM
MG and the British government have changed their stance it seems after viewing the Andrew Marr show yesterday. One suspects the Tories and the SNP are strapping in for the fight. From a law background constitutionally I think if the UK AG Refers the Referendum Bill to the SC then the UK government will win on a literal reading of the 1998 Scotland Act. But this would be a very unpopular move and they know it, it would probably work against them. I hate the Tories but the good think for them is the independence movement right now is split  due to the Salmond issues, and also the SNP have huge amounts of work to do around economics and finance to attract the uncertain/undecided vote.   It will be interesting to see if Nicola reaches out to Brussels in this whole issues and if the Europeans get involved to knife the Brits in the back aiding the independence movement.   
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: mouview on May 10, 2021, 09:18:09 AM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 10, 2021, 09:09:44 AM
MG and the British government have changed their stance it seems after viewing the Andrew Marr show yesterday. One suspects the Tories and the SNP are strapping in for the fight. From a law background constitutionally I think if the UK AG Refers the Referendum Bill to the SC then the UK government will win on a literal reading of the 1998 Scotland Act. But this would be a very unpopular move and they know it, it would probably work against them. I hate the Tories but the good think for them is the independence movement right now is split  due to the Salmond issues, and also the SNP have huge amounts of work to do around economics and finance to attract the uncertain/undecided vote.   It will be interesting to see if Nicola reaches out to Brussels in this whole issues and if the Europeans get involved to knife the Brits in the back aiding the independence movement.

I think Brussels has already unofficially pushed out the welcome mat for Scotland, they haven't been rebuffed anyway. As solid as the victory for Independence parties has been last week, the dichotomy for Sturgeon is that she doesn't want to hold a referendum until the pandemic abates and conditions normalise, yet economic improvement is playing into pro-union hands. Tories will highlight it to say that 'we're better together' and London will love-bomb Caledonia in the meantime with financial inducements and job promises. Timing will be critical and the Tories will brazen it out for as long as possible in the hope that Scots get fed up with the whole thing. If opinion polls continue to show a majority for independence though, there's no doubt it will turn up the heat strongly under BJ.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on May 10, 2021, 09:45:32 AM
Gove telling the SNP to concentrate on Covid is arrogance in the extreme considering the cluster fúck they made of it down in London.

He's got a strange way of strengthening the union and IIRC he's Scottish by birth, isn't he?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 10, 2021, 10:50:04 AM
Give was born in Scotland alright but I won't hold that against him.
He's one reprehensible yoke.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on May 11, 2021, 02:34:49 PM
Why not have a spot of partition, it worked so well in Ireland.

https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1391821463724990464
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on May 11, 2021, 02:50:03 PM
The same level of stupid as the Sky interviewer who asked would English be no longer the language of an Independent Scotland.
If they're into partitioning how about splitting the Countries/regions/ cities who voted to remain in the EU?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on May 11, 2021, 11:21:14 PM
Quote from: mouview on May 10, 2021, 09:18:09 AM
Quote from: John Egans left boot on May 10, 2021, 09:09:44 AM
MG and the British government have changed their stance it seems after viewing the Andrew Marr show yesterday. One suspects the Tories and the SNP are strapping in for the fight. From a law background constitutionally I think if the UK AG Refers the Referendum Bill to the SC then the UK government will win on a literal reading of the 1998 Scotland Act. But this would be a very unpopular move and they know it, it would probably work against them. I hate the Tories but the good think for them is the independence movement right now is split  due to the Salmond issues, and also the SNP have huge amounts of work to do around economics and finance to attract the uncertain/undecided vote.   It will be interesting to see if Nicola reaches out to Brussels in this whole issues and if the Europeans get involved to knife the Brits in the back aiding the independence movement.

I think Brussels has already unofficially pushed out the welcome mat for Scotland, they haven't been rebuffed anyway. As solid as the victory for Independence parties has been last week, the dichotomy for Sturgeon is that she doesn't want to hold a referendum until the pandemic abates and conditions normalise, yet economic improvement is playing into pro-union hands. Tories will highlight it to say that 'we're better together' and London will love-bomb Caledonia in the meantime with financial inducements and job promises. Timing will be critical and the Tories will brazen it out for as long as possible in the hope that Scots get fed up with the whole thing. If opinion polls continue to show a majority for independence though, there's no doubt it will turn up the heat strongly under BJ.

When was this red carpet rolled out?

Have the SNP done the groundwork to sell the Euro to the Scottish electorate?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on May 11, 2021, 11:31:17 PM
Quote from: seafoid on May 09, 2021, 09:41:31 PM
The UK is walking into a constitutional crisis.

This is true.

SNP can't win the legal battles they are threatening.

Tories can't answer the question about what avenue is open to the independence movement in Scotland.

Something has to give.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 09, 2021, 12:27:46 PM
Britain Elects twitter feed today

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

SNP: 51% (+4)
CON: 21% (-4)
LAB: 17% (-3)
LDEM: 5% (+1)

via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 03 May

The SNP will be heartened by the figures as it all appeared to be going a bit pear shaped recently- not that it's definitive in anyway.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: John Egans left boot on September 09, 2021, 02:04:55 PM
What will be interesting in the coming year is when the legislature in Edinburgh passes the referendum bill the fight that will begin in the courts rep article 30 of the Scotland act 1998 - one suspects the court of session will allow the bill to proceed then the fun in the Supreme Court really starts with 2 Scottish judges on the bench in London well anything  is possible

Cue Aidan o neill
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on June 16, 2022, 06:20:25 PM
I saw something on Twitter that there's to be another referendum in October 2023 according to Scottish Constitution Secretary.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 10:47:10 AM
Fair play to Nicola Sturgeon
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on June 29, 2022, 11:23:47 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

I neither trust or believe one word about the financial failures of NI Scotland or the English regions. The whole UK tax set-up is designed to make the south east of London look like a financial superpower while everywhere else is a bunch of beggars on the dole. I will give you a real world example, a few years ago I worked for a bakery in Belfast. The mill that ground the flour was also in Belfast. So Flour was ground, bread was made and bread was sold in Belfast at the local Tesco. However the profit for all three operations was recorded as having been made at company headquarters in London where profit was taken and tax applied.
A further example, Scotch whiskey being exported to America sails from Liverpool docks and the tax take on it is when it is exported is classed as English.
Scotland has North Sea Oil and gas, currently well over $100 per barrel. It has lots of renewable energy and fresh water (something England is badly lacking).
Will Scotland have to be smart and work hard to prosper? Yes
But no more so than Denmark, Sweden, Ireland or Holland.
Without the financial drag of London sucking money and investment out of Scotland the scots will be just fine.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on June 29, 2022, 11:35:28 AM
Independence is normal.
How many former British ruled Countries have revoked their Independence and gone back under Westminster Rule?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 11:38:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

Genuine question, if I've picked up your point correctly, why would North Sea oil revenue's be no longer relevant?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on June 29, 2022, 11:42:08 AM
Quote from: keep her low this half on June 29, 2022, 11:23:47 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

I neither trust or believe one word about the financial failures of NI Scotland or the English regions. The whole UK tax set-up is designed to make the south east of London look like a financial superpower while everywhere else is a bunch of beggars on the dole. I will give you a real world example, a few years ago I worked for a bakery in Belfast. The mill that ground the flour was also in Belfast. So Flour was ground, bread was made and bread was sold in Belfast at the local Tesco. However the profit for all three operations was recorded as having been made at company headquarters in London where profit was taken and tax applied.
A further example, Scotch whiskey being exported to America sails from Liverpool docks and the tax take on it is when it is exported is classed as English.

One point is that the Protocol makes some of this more visible and might lead to more accurate statistics.


Quote
Will Scotland have to be smart and work hard to prosper? Yes
But no more so than Denmark, Sweden, Ireland or Holland.
Without the financial drag of London sucking money and investment out of Scotland the scots will be just fine.

Notably all of these neighbours are richer than Scotland, as are Germany and Iceland as well.
I have no doubt that Scotland would do better in the longer term, the problem is how to get out.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Bord na Mona man on June 29, 2022, 11:53:06 AM
Quote from: keep her low this half on June 29, 2022, 11:23:47 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

I neither trust or believe one word about the financial failures of NI Scotland or the English regions. The whole UK tax set-up is designed to make the south east of London look like a financial superpower while everywhere else is a bunch of beggars on the dole. I will give you a real world example, a few years ago I worked for a bakery in Belfast. The mill that ground the flour was also in Belfast. So Flour was ground, bread was made and bread was sold in Belfast at the local Tesco. However the profit for all three operations was recorded as having been made at company headquarters in London where profit was taken and tax applied.
A further example, Scotch whiskey being exported to America sails from Liverpool docks and the tax take on it is when it is exported is classed as English.
Scotland has North Sea Oil and gas, currently well over $100 per barrel. It has lots of renewable energy and fresh water (something England is badly lacking).
Will Scotland have to be smart and work hard to prosper? Yes
But no more so than Denmark, Sweden, Ireland or Holland.
Without the financial drag of London sucking money and investment out of Scotland the scots will be just fine.
A good example of how London has gaslighted Scotland into thinking they are being subsidised and couldn't prosper alone.
We're subsidising you...but please don't leave us!

Unfortunately the best swing vote winner for Scottish Independence may not be residing in No 10 by the time any referendum comes along.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: blasmere on June 29, 2022, 01:24:12 PM
Quote from: Bord na Mona man on June 29, 2022, 11:53:06 AM
Quote from: keep her low this half on June 29, 2022, 11:23:47 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

I neither trust or believe one word about the financial failures of NI Scotland or the English regions. The whole UK tax set-up is designed to make the south east of London look like a financial superpower while everywhere else is a bunch of beggars on the dole. I will give you a real world example, a few years ago I worked for a bakery in Belfast. The mill that ground the flour was also in Belfast. So Flour was ground, bread was made and bread was sold in Belfast at the local Tesco. However the profit for all three operations was recorded as having been made at company headquarters in London where profit was taken and tax applied.
A further example, Scotch whiskey being exported to America sails from Liverpool docks and the tax take on it is when it is exported is classed as English.
Scotland has North Sea Oil and gas, currently well over $100 per barrel. It has lots of renewable energy and fresh water (something England is badly lacking).
Will Scotland have to be smart and work hard to prosper? Yes
But no more so than Denmark, Sweden, Ireland or Holland.
Without the financial drag of London sucking money and investment out of Scotland the scots will be just fine.
A good example of how London has gaslighted Scotland into thinking they are being subsidised and couldn't prosper alone.
We're subsidising you...but please don't leave us!

Unfortunately the best swing vote winner for Scottish Independence may not be residing in No 10 by the time any referendum comes along.

I genuinely think Boris would have to be caught on camera shooting someone before he goes, talking of a third term last week. He'll try and rig elections if he can. The only shame about the Scottish thing is the English (& they're not all bad) are consigned to Torydom forever more.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on June 29, 2022, 03:12:09 PM
Could /would rejoining the EU be a part of the  independence platform?
That is the biggest unpopular social/economic change since the last referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on June 29, 2022, 03:16:52 PM
Quote from: Main Street on June 29, 2022, 03:12:09 PM
Could /would rejoining the EU be a part of the  independence platform?
That is the biggest unpopular social/economic change since the last referendum.
It'll be one of the main factors I reckon. Expect the EU to really back Scotland here to stick the boot into the Brits/England over Brexit.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 03:36:06 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on June 29, 2022, 03:16:52 PM
Quote from: Main Street on June 29, 2022, 03:12:09 PM
Could /would rejoining the EU be a part of the  independence platform?
That is the biggest unpopular social/economic change since the last referendum.
It'll be one of the main factors I reckon. Expect the EU to really back Scotland here to stick the boot into the Brits/England over Brexit.

100%

Fully expect the EU to act in good faith to Ireland/Scotland while letting England shit on its own face from here on in

The Tories and little Englanders don't really grasp just how much they're despised across the globe for British colonialism, they're gonna find out soon enough
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 03:39:33 PM
Quote from: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 11:38:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

Genuine question, if I've picked up your point correctly, why would North Sea oil revenue's be no longer relevant?
I think they collapsed
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on June 29, 2022, 03:51:32 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 03:39:33 PM
Quote from: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 11:38:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

Genuine question, if I've picked up your point correctly, why would North Sea oil revenue's be no longer relevant?
I think they collapsed

All UK oil fields in the North sea are privately owned (open to correction)
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 03:52:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 03:39:33 PM
Quote from: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 11:38:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

Genuine question, if I've picked up your point correctly, why would North Sea oil revenue's be no longer relevant?
I think they collapsed

I think not, could be wrong
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 03:55:16 PM
Quote from: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 03:52:08 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 03:39:33 PM
Quote from: tiempo on June 29, 2022, 11:38:26 AM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 11:10:18 AM
In 2014 the SNP platform was based on £x bn in revenues from North Sea oil. This is no longer relevant. So they would have a deficit of 10% of GDP or £1765 per person.
They have to fix this.

https://www.ft.com/content/ff6c0f6b-2d65-4a4e-bbba-878e2260cf3e
The FT's estimate that Scotland's deficit would be almost 10 per cent of GDP means that the size of the tax increases or spending cuts needed to bring public borrowing down to manageable levels has doubled compared with the tight expenditure limits proposed by an SNP economic commission in 2018. At the time of the 2014 plebiscite, the SNP said there was no need for any deficit reduction because the country could rely on North Sea oil revenues. Scotland's now much weaker fiscal position would present a newly independent nation with a difficult set of choices. It could impose many years of spending restraint or higher taxes — or bet that financial markets would be willing to lend at very low interest rates to a new sovereign borrower with a large and persistent deficit.

Genuine question, if I've picked up your point correctly, why would North Sea oil revenue's be no longer relevant?
I think they collapsed

I think not, could be wrong
https://www.scotfact.com/OilandGasComparison#:~:text=Scotland%27s%20geographic%20share%20of%20Oil%20and%20Gas%20revenue,Petroleum%20Revenue%20Tax%20Rebates%20disproportionally%20affecting%20non-Scottish%20production.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on June 29, 2022, 04:14:43 PM
I predict the same result as last time, when it comes to the crunch those that say they will, will happily stay with their English handlers
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on June 29, 2022, 04:27:34 PM
Boris Johnson wasn't in charge last time. Dangerous man who anyone in their right mind needs to get away from.

However I still would be surprised if it goes through. Bold move by sturgeon. Johnson best thing for could have happened for Scottish independence and Irish unity.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 04:37:10 PM
If there had been an Irish independence referendum in 1912, the Unionist side would have won. Irish Independent readers would have voted no.
What shifts public opinion is a huge event such as the executions after the rising or an economic crash. These change the way people think about stability.
Scotland will leave the UK but not in 2023.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:05:26 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on June 29, 2022, 05:50:13 PM
I'd be fairly certain of one thing - if there was a Scottish independence referendum next year and it failed to pass with a nominal majority, then that issue will be dead for many years to come.

For evidence, just look at Quebec - two independence referendums in 1980 & 1995, both failed to pass  (roughly 60/40 in 1980 and 50.5/49.5 in 1995 on a record voter turnout) and since then there's not been any popular sentiment of Quebecois independence anything close to 1995, with the current provincial government more interested in potentially more autonomy within a federal Canada.
AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:47:23 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on June 29, 2022, 06:08:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:05:26 PM
AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

Source?
https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 07:22:42 PM
https://www.ft.com/content/0e729df8-cd60-409a-8d72-b49c23b712ba

The first minister's tactics are politically shrewd. They renew momentum around the independence issue, assuaging party activists. They allow Sturgeon to claim the moral high ground, and reassure moderate Scots, by insisting she is committed to a legal referendum, not a "wildcat" poll as held so damagingly by Catalonia. The Sturgeon plan is still a gamble. If granted, a referendum less than 16 months from now would be very risky for her cause. Opposition parties have threatened to boycott it, robbing it of legitimacy. Opinion polling suggests most Scots oppose another independence plebiscite before the end of 2023. Far more likely, however, is that the Supreme Court will rule that Scotland cannot legally hold an independence referendum without UK government approval as it involves constitutional matters that are a Westminster competence. Sturgeon has the savvy to exploit such a ruling to feed a sense among Scots of being locked in a marriage with a heedless partner that is on a divergent path.

That feeling was crystallised by the 2016 Brexit vote, which pulled Scotland out of the EU against its majority will — and is the SNP's central argument for a new vote on sovereignty. The UK government is right to emphasise that Scotland's 2014 referendum was billed as a once in a generation event, and a repeat would be a divisive distraction from more urgent problems. Using the 2024 general election as a de facto independence poll, as Sturgeon says she will if a referendum is blocked, has no validity. But obstructionism is not a sustainable strategy. A proactive approach is needed instead. One strand should be to defuse claims that Scotland is in any way "trapped" by setting out basic rules for how it could leave the UK — the triggers and terms for any future referendum — providing at least a measure of clarity as, for example, in Northern Ireland. The government needs, meanwhile, to win the arguments for maintaining the union, to weaken support for a referendum, and ensure a "no" to independence if one is ever held. That means challenging the SNP on the pitfalls of going it alone. Scotland still relies on a hefty fiscal transfer from the UK and, were it to remain in the EU, would now have to create a hard border with its biggest trading partner, England. Above all, ministers should be seen to govern, in style and substance, for the good of the whole UK, not just England — or Tory-backing English regions. They should launch reforms to give Scots a greater voice at Westminster, such as converting the House of Lords into an elected senate of nations and regions. Much of what the Johnson administration has done to date, however, runs in the opposite direction, from driving through the hardest possible Brexit to a governing style that relies on "wedge" issues to retain power. The 315-year-old union needs reform, but is worth fighting politically to preserve. This UK government has yet to show it has the will, or the ability, to wage that fight effectively.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 07:33:28 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on June 29, 2022, 07:18:43 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:47:23 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on June 29, 2022, 06:08:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:05:26 PM
AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

Source?
https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/)
Thank you. Though looking at that map two things stick out - (a) Donegal's fecked, and (b) outside of The Pale and the Cork - Limerick - Waterford triangle, most of NI compares OK with the rest of the Republic. Haven't a source on hand ATM (I'll try looking for one) but I've read that despite its general economic state d'north actually compares well to many parts of GB when it comes to household disposable income.
Saw a chart in the FT recently quoting Gross National Income for the Republic by Fitzgerald and Morgenroth plus The economic development of Ireland by Giblin and McHugh
NI economic performance exceeded RoI during 2 periods. 1938-50, 1980-90. RoI exceeded NI for the rest of the century
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on June 29, 2022, 09:44:30 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on June 29, 2022, 07:18:43 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:47:23 PM
Quote from: Fionntamhnach on June 29, 2022, 06:08:38 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 29, 2022, 06:05:26 PM
AFAIK the Canadian Federal Government looked into the reasons behind the separatist vote and addressed the issue in various ways including Financial.
The UK regions have been ignored for 40 years. This is why Brexit happened. It's part of the reason why the North is poorer than Cavan, Leitrim and Sligo on an average disposable income basis.

Source?
https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/ (https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/caj6e7/disposable_income_in_ireland/)
Thank you. Though looking at that map two things stick out - (a) Donegal's fecked, and (b) outside of The Pale and the Cork - Limerick - Waterford triangle, most of NI compares OK with the rest of the Republic. Haven't a source on hand ATM (I'll try looking for one) but I've read that despite its general economic state d'north actually compares well to many parts of GB when it comes to household disposable income.

NI, on the East Coast, should be like Cork at least.
This data is 2015, the gap has continued to open since that time.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on June 30, 2022, 08:48:33 AM
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629
The Bergin-McGuinness study found that poverty rates were considerably higher in Northern Ireland. Based on a poverty line of below 60 per cent of average household income, 15.9 per cent of individuals in the Republic were found to be at risk of relative poverty compared to 23.8 per cent in Northern Ireland.

https://www.ft.com/content/82da479e-9b13-409e-9015-3a1bdb4e408e
Public spending in Northern Ireland is 20 per cent higher than the UK average, while public revenues are 16 per cent lower.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629

Perhaps one of the most striking differences was in the area of life expectancy. From 2005 onwards, life expectancy in the Republic has exceeded that in the North to the extent that a child born in 2018 is expected to live 1.4 years longer than its Northern counterpart. Even a person aged 65 in the Republic can expect to live a half a year longer than 65-year-olds in the North.
The original FitzGerald-Morgenroth study, from which Gudgin derives his 20 per cent claim, was primarily focused on the North's productivity, a key driver of wage growth.
It found that productivity per head in the North had deteriorated relative to the rest of the UK in recent decades and even since the 1998 Belfast Agreement. Many commentators attribute the North's low productivity to the Troubles, but its productivity had been waning prior to that period. That's why it has become reliant on subvention from London.

Both Scotland and the North are getting left behind in the UK
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on June 30, 2022, 03:28:14 PM
Quote from: seafoid on June 30, 2022, 08:48:33 AM
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629
The Bergin-McGuinness study found that poverty rates were considerably higher in Northern Ireland. Based on a poverty line of below 60 per cent of average household income, 15.9 per cent of individuals in the Republic were found to be at risk of relative poverty compared to 23.8 per cent in Northern Ireland.

https://www.ft.com/content/82da479e-9b13-409e-9015-3a1bdb4e408e
Public spending in Northern Ireland is 20 per cent higher than the UK average, while public revenues are 16 per cent lower.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/which-has-a-higher-standard-of-living-northern-ireland-or-the-republic-1.4540629

Perhaps one of the most striking differences was in the area of life expectancy. From 2005 onwards, life expectancy in the Republic has exceeded that in the North to the extent that a child born in 2018 is expected to live 1.4 years longer than its Northern counterpart. Even a person aged 65 in the Republic can expect to live a half a year longer than 65-year-olds in the North.
The original FitzGerald-Morgenroth study, from which Gudgin derives his 20 per cent claim, was primarily focused on the North's productivity, a key driver of wage growth.
It found that productivity per head in the North had deteriorated relative to the rest of the UK in recent decades and even since the 1998 Belfast Agreement. Many commentators attribute the North's low productivity to the Troubles, but its productivity had been waning prior to that period. That's why it has become reliant on subvention from London.

Both Scotland and the North are getting left behind in the UK

That life expectancy figure is absolutely shocking. We are literally paying with our lives for an unwanted border.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on September 13, 2022, 08:52:44 PM
The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 13, 2022, 09:11:54 PM
They propose having one in October 2023.
No doubt Truss and Co will have helped the Independence cause by then.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 13, 2022, 09:28:19 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 13, 2022, 08:52:44 PM
The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

Saw something on twitter about this also. Scottish Tories will hang on to this until October 2023.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 13, 2022, 09:48:15 PM
There might be a Unionist bounce but Scots hate Brexit and don't  like inflation and both of these are much bigger than Liz Windsor dying in Scotland
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Dougal Maguire on September 13, 2022, 09:59:51 PM
The coronation next year will also be a boost for unionists across the UK. I would expect the Tories to call an election a short time after it to capitalise on the nationalistic feel good factor that it will create
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ned on September 13, 2022, 10:05:06 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 13, 2022, 08:52:44 PM
The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

It won't make a difference longer term, in fact probably the opposite. Chuck has nowhere near the same hold on people. The union will die with Brenda.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on September 13, 2022, 10:18:51 PM
Does it even matter. Scots are retaining monarchy anyway if they vote  independence. They are a different breed to Irish nationalists. Terrified of their own shadow, afraid to make it on their own.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 14, 2022, 08:04:05 PM
The SNP will need to get Rangers onside

https://twitter.com/JordanC1107/status/1570124934248013824
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on September 15, 2022, 09:06:58 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 13, 2022, 08:52:44 PM
The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

English woman on TV stating that she filed past the Queens coffin seven times whilst it lay in state in Edinburgh would tell you something about Scotland's place in the UK and it's relationship with the Monarchy....
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 10:07:43 AM
Quote from: johnnycool on September 15, 2022, 09:06:58 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 13, 2022, 08:52:44 PM
The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

English woman on TV stating that she filed past the Queens coffin seven times whilst it lay in state in Edinburgh would tell you something about Scotland's place in the UK and it's relationship with the Monarchy....

The Scots wont go, I have been saying this for years- they are very much British when it comes to it. We have fought the British constantly on and off for centuries, they gave up a long time ago
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:13:52 AM
I think they will but not with 55%
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 15, 2022, 10:33:56 AM
SNP biggest and most popular Party but never get over 50% of vote.
Mind you Greens are also pro Independence and between them they have a pro Independence majority in Holyrood.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:37:16 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Southern Ireland wasn't always pro independence. You need a shock to shift conservative people. In the South it was Irish Independent readers. The shock was 1916.
In Scotland it could be pensions collapsing.
You need at least 75% for independence.

51% gives you clusterfucks such as Brexit.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 15, 2022, 10:41:56 AM
Economics comes into it too. The time for Scotland to strike is now - the uk government is one of the most corrupt and incompetent in their history and it only looks to be getting worse.Cost of living a big selling point for independence.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 11:04:45 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:37:16 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Southern Ireland wasn't always pro independence. You need a shock to shift conservative people. In the South it was Irish Independent readers. The shock was 1916.
In Scotland it could be pensions collapsing.
You need at least 75% for independence.

51% gives you clusterfucks such as Brexit.

And we are planning for a plus 1
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 11:05:27 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.

They have no back bone-shite the tights in general
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: yellowcard on September 15, 2022, 12:58:12 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 11:04:45 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:37:16 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Southern Ireland wasn't always pro independence. You need a shock to shift conservative people. In the South it was Irish Independent readers. The shock was 1916.
In Scotland it could be pensions collapsing.
You need at least 75% for independence.

51% gives you clusterfucks such as Brexit.

And we are planning for a plus 1

Not comparable though since a new Ireland would be very unlikely to be split down the middle after unity. Its more likely to be 70/30 or greater when you incorporate the entire island population.   
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Itchy on September 15, 2022, 01:05:35 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:37:16 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Southern Ireland wasn't always pro independence. You need a shock to shift conservative people. In the South it was Irish Independent readers. The shock was 1916.
In Scotland it could be pensions collapsing.
You need at least 75% for independence.

51% gives you clusterfucks such as Brexit.

Horse shite
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on September 15, 2022, 01:13:09 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on September 15, 2022, 09:06:58 AM
Quote from: bennydorano on September 13, 2022, 08:52:44 PM
The Queen dying on Scottish soil will be some boost for the Unionist cause. If Nicola went asking about another Referendum now she'd get one no bother - because she'd lose.

English woman on TV stating that she filed past the Queens coffin seven times whilst it lay in state in Edinburgh would tell you something about Scotland's place in the UK and it's relationship with the Monarchy....
I think that tells how much people took to the Queen. It will be a different story with Charles.
The Queen was a positive symbol of 'Britishness', now that she's gone, there are those who opine that the sense of 'Britishness'  will lessen in Scotland. 

We don't know yet how Charles will fulfill the role, many suspect he will enact many new ideas and roll back on the pomp.


Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on September 15, 2022, 01:19:27 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 11:05:27 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.

They have no back bone-shite the tights in general
Credit to the 45% who voted to make their Country a normal Independent State.
As for the rest... how many were committed pro Unionists?
How many were scared by nonsense like Ye'll get no pensions or what currency will ye use?
Can you imagine Pearse and Connolly turning back outside the GPO because they hadn't decided on a currency?
The EU argument no doubt swayed some as well but now they need Independence to get back to the EU.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: red hander on September 15, 2022, 01:20:32 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 11:04:45 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:37:16 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Southern Ireland wasn't always pro independence. You need a shock to shift conservative people. In the South it was Irish Independent readers. The shock was 1916.
In Scotland it could be pensions collapsing.
You need at least 75% for independence.

51% gives you clusterfucks such as Brexit.

And we are planning for a plus 1

That's all it will take. Days of unionist veto and gerrymandering are over. If it's good enough to retain their rotten Union, it's good enough to end it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on September 15, 2022, 01:25:54 PM
Quote from: red hander on September 15, 2022, 01:20:32 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 15, 2022, 11:04:45 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 10:37:16 AM
Quote from: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM
How will they not go? They keep voting SNP.
Southern Ireland wasn't always pro independence. You need a shock to shift conservative people. In the South it was Irish Independent readers. The shock was 1916.
In Scotland it could be pensions collapsing.
You need at least 75% for independence.

51% gives you clusterfucks such as Brexit.

And we are planning for a plus 1

That's all it will take. Days of unionist veto and gerrymandering are over. If it's good enough to retain their rotten Union, it's good enough to end it.

+1 is good enough for me, good enough for the person living in a nationalist town or area, those living in loyalist flash points or villages or town will come up against a tougher resistance to the result, a small factor to take on board for some..

Plus 10,000 wouldn't keep those happy either BTW so the smoother the process the better for everyone
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on September 15, 2022, 01:27:26 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on September 15, 2022, 10:33:56 AM
SNP biggest and most popular Party but never get over 50% of vote.
Mind you Greens are also pro Independence and between them they have a pro Independence majority in Holyrood.
Exactly. Most of Scotland is also anti-Tory. When you see the special arrangement NI is getting via the Protocol and the disastrous Brexit imposed by the tories, sentimental shite like the Queen dying is soon forgot about. I don't think the Scots will make the same mistake twice.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: weareros on September 15, 2022, 01:48:55 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

They might play such games with Scotland, and indeed they are threatening to with their demand for it to be 50% of all registered voters (which is bull). But it will be a straight majority in North. The only bs they can pull there is not granting a border poll as it is in the power of the Secretary of State. But the poll is inevitable, and any delays post 2030 will only further drive up the unity vote. Unionists will continue to try to change the terms on the GFA too but with zero success.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on September 15, 2022, 01:53:26 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

You can'e just rig the voting process like that  ;D  This isn't North Korea
The simple majority (first past the post) was agreed upon last time and surely will be the basis  for the next referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Itchy on September 16, 2022, 01:48:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

What are you trying to say?

51% wont work, as in after such a vote it will be unmanageable

or

The brits wont allow 51% to pass a referendum.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 16, 2022, 05:03:19 PM
Quote from: Itchy on September 16, 2022, 01:48:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

What are you trying to say?

51% wont work, as in after such a vote it will be unmanageable

or

The brits wont allow 51% to pass a referendum.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/we-will-honour-commitment-to-hold-border-poll-says-tory-party-chair-oliver-dowden-41624183.html

Tory party chair Oliver Dowden has said the Government will honour the constitutional obligation to hold a border poll on the future of Northern Ireland if "there is a sustained majority" in favour of unification.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 16, 2022, 06:57:11 PM
Quote from: Itchy on September 16, 2022, 01:48:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

What are you trying to say?

51% wont work, as in after such a vote it will be unmanageable

or

The brits wont allow 51% to pass a referendum.

It's probably difficult to manage if we are being very honest
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 16, 2022, 10:24:50 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

Considering Brexit was passed with a narrow majority, 51% would be enough.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 16, 2022, 10:53:20 PM
You'll hear a lot about 51% not being enough. But Scotland and NI are not like the Brexit referendum. In both Scotland and NI there are people who want to remain the UK whatever, those who want to leave whatever and the middle block who might swing either way. If on the day there is a majority then the middle block in both cases will accept the legitimacy of this, they might not have voted to the leave the UK on the day but as they could see themselves doing so then they have no problem accepting the legitimacy of those who did.
Brexit was not acceptable because the whole process was a racket. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on September 16, 2022, 11:43:31 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 16, 2022, 05:03:19 PM
Quote from: Itchy on September 16, 2022, 01:48:48 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.

What are you trying to say?

51% wont work, as in after such a vote it will be unmanageable

or

The brits wont allow 51% to pass a referendum.

https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/northern-ireland-assembly-election-2022/we-will-honour-commitment-to-hold-border-poll-says-tory-party-chair-oliver-dowden-41624183.html

Tory party chair Oliver Dowden has said the Government will honour the constitutional obligation to hold a border poll on the future of Northern Ireland if "there is a sustained majority" in favour of unification.

How will they  know there is "a sustained majority "  unless they actually have a border  poll ?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on September 17, 2022, 02:12:44 AM
The criteria is a  simple majority,  50% plus one vote.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ardtole on September 17, 2022, 04:54:35 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.

Hit the nail on the head there Himucker. Agree 100%.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: general_lee on September 17, 2022, 09:08:35 AM
Surely they're not Unionists then?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: ardtole on September 17, 2022, 09:52:18 AM
I presume it is 30% of voters from a traditional unionist background, who see the potential benefits of a united Ireland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 12:49:57 PM
Quote from: ardtole on September 17, 2022, 09:52:18 AM
I presume it is 30% of voters from a traditional unionist background, who see the potential benefits of a united Ireland.
Mostly rugby fans.
Soccer fans will be harder to shift
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: JPGJOHNNYG on September 17, 2022, 02:46:49 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What your suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

Exactly this.
And it is the same reason why joint authority is no longer an option. Joint authority if it was a serious option should have come in at the time of the good Friday agreement  and not to be considered when there is an actual majority in favour a UI. I expect some unionists to try anything and everything to block a UI. Even repartition which in reality is dead because of the make up of Belfast.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 02:59:27 PM
Heres an example, the Welsh assembly came in to being on a vote of 50.3% on a turnout of 50.1% of registered voters in 1997.
A vote on Irish Unification either way will be respected by the overwhelming majority.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Farrandeelin on September 17, 2022, 08:08:47 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on September 17, 2022, 02:46:49 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What your suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

Exactly this.
And it is the same reason why joint authority is no longer an option. Joint authority if it was a serious option should have come in at the time of the good Friday agreement  and not to be considered when there is an actual majority in favour a UI. I expect some unionists to try anything and everything to block a UI. Even repartition which in reality is dead because of the make up of Belfast.

IF and a massive if repartition was on the table, where would the border be?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 08:29:11 PM
Round Larne likely
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on September 17, 2022, 09:36:42 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 08:29:11 PM
Round Larne likely

There'll be hell to pay if that  big crown  on the roundabout isn't within the new boundary
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: JPGJOHNNYG on September 18, 2022, 12:22:22 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on September 17, 2022, 08:08:47 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on September 17, 2022, 02:46:49 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What your suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.

Exactly this.
And it is the same reason why joint authority is no longer an option. Joint authority if it was a serious option should have come in at the time of the good Friday agreement  and not to be considered when there is an actual majority in favour a UI. I expect some unionists to try anything and everything to block a UI. Even repartition which in reality is dead because of the make up of Belfast.

IF and a massive if repartition was on the table, where would the border be?

Larne and Carrick with a bit round Jamie's house in donaghdee ;D
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 18, 2022, 07:33:20 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 02:59:27 PM
Heres an example, the Welsh assembly came in to being on a vote of 50.3% on a turnout of 50.1% of registered voters in 1997.
A vote on Irish Unification either way will be respected by the overwhelming majority.
The Brits are not going to allow a vote at 51%. There is no point in replacing one failed sectarian domination system with  another. That is the curse of the North. So SF has started its outreach programme. Alliance is probably a big part of it.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Hound on September 18, 2022, 12:06:38 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.
I think the point is it would be madness to call a referendum based on a 51% nationalist majority. You only want to call it when you are sure you are going to win. If a vote was called tomorrow for a vote in 2 months time, reunification would lose.

Most importantly there needs to be a complete plan of how everything will work. Otherwise it will be too easy to persuade nationalists to vote UK through the campaign, e.g.

I'm on £45k now paying 15k tax, what will I be on after unification?

Ans during campaign:
€60k but paying 25k tax, because someone has to pay for the lads on the dole who'll near double their money.
Plus the doc used to be free, now it'll be €55 a visit. You'll need to pay for prescriptions too
Pretty much every country that's ever changed currency, including the big euro changeover, saw prices jump 5-10%. So expect that too.
New cars up 20%-40% thanks to VRT and higher VAT.
Less money in your pocket, plus everything more expensive. Are you really sure you want to vote for that?

The above is all pie in the sky but without a complete plan, the unionists will exaggerate it even more. And the promise of more jobs from US MNCs that will happen post unification is less tangible. Of course there will be lots of other benefits too.

But a detailed plan is needed pre vote. A significant majority of Scots would prefer independence from a notional perspective. But there was too much uncertainty to win the vote. And we've all seen the Brexit mess still going on years later, because they had no plan developed.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2022, 01:02:43 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 18, 2022, 12:06:38 PM
I think the point is it would be madness to call a referendum based on a 51% nationalist majority. You only want to call it when you are sure you are going to win. If a vote was called tomorrow for a vote in 2 months time, reunification would lose.

Most importantly there needs to be a complete plan of how everything will work. Otherwise it will be too easy to persuade nationalists to vote UK through the campaign, e.g.

I'm on £45k now paying 15k tax, what will I be on after unification?

Ans during campaign:
€60k but paying 25k tax, because someone has to pay for the lads on the dole who'll near double their money.
Plus the doc used to be free, now it'll be €55 a visit. You'll need to pay for prescriptions too
Pretty much every country that's ever changed currency, including the big euro changeover, saw prices jump 5-10%. So expect that too.
New cars up 20%-40% thanks to VRT and higher VAT.
Less money in your pocket, plus everything more expensive. Are you really sure you want to vote for that?

The above is all pie in the sky but without a complete plan, the unionists will exaggerate it even more. And the promise of more jobs from US MNCs that will happen post unification is less tangible. Of course there will be lots of other benefits too.

But a detailed plan is needed pre vote. A significant majority of Scots would prefer independence from a notional perspective. But there was too much uncertainty to win the vote. And we've all seen the Brexit mess still going on years later, because they had no plan developed.

You are of course correct that a plan is needed. However, some of these issues can be clarified in the plan. You say that anyone changing currency has big price increases, but in the ROI inflation in 2002 and 2003, after the Euro was introduced, was less than in 2000 and 2001. The Celtic Tiger was the issue, the currency change was neither here nor there.

But the main point is that the above is swings and roundabouts. In relation to Ireland, and indeed Scotland, it is the overall state of the public finances that is the issue.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 18, 2022, 01:23:05 PM
Quote from: Hound on September 18, 2022, 12:06:38 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.
I think the point is it would be madness to call a referendum based on a 51% nationalist majority. You only want to call it when you are sure you are going to win. If a vote was called tomorrow for a vote in 2 months time, reunification would lose.

Most importantly there needs to be a complete plan of how everything will work. Otherwise it will be too easy to persuade nationalists to vote UK through the campaign, e.g.

I'm on £45k now paying 15k tax, what will I be on after unification?

Ans during campaign:
€60k but paying 25k tax, because someone has to pay for the lads on the dole who'll near double their money.
Plus the doc used to be free, now it'll be €55 a visit. You'll need to pay for prescriptions too
Pretty much every country that's ever changed currency, including the big euro changeover, saw prices jump 5-10%. So expect that too.
New cars up 20%-40% thanks to VRT and higher VAT.
Less money in your pocket, plus everything more expensive. Are you really sure you want to vote for that?

The above is all pie in the sky but without a complete plan, the unionists will exaggerate it even more. And the promise of more jobs from US MNCs that will happen post unification is less tangible. Of course there will be lots of other benefits too.

But a detailed plan is needed pre vote. A significant majority of Scots would prefer independence from a notional perspective. But there was too much uncertainty to win the vote. And we've all seen the Brexit mess still going on years later, because they had no plan developed.
I don't disagree with any of that. I am merely arguing against the moving of the goal posts of what % of the vote is required to win such a referendum on Unification. It is and should and will stay at 50% plus one. Of course everything should be planned for in advance. Personally I believe even with the right planning there should be at least 2 years to the vote when a referendum is called.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 18, 2022, 07:14:03 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.
I am not debating anything. The Brit position is upthread . 50 plus 1 is not  standard referendum practice for a change of State..
Brexit was 50 plus 1 and now is a clusterfuck with less than 50% support.
The North has been unstable since day 1. I don't see the Irish Govt wanting to bring that into a UI. And I don't think much planning has been done either,
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created . 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 18, 2022, 08:57:58 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 18, 2022, 07:14:03 PM
I am not debating anything. The Brit position is upthread . 50 plus 1 is not  standard referendum practice for a change of State..
Brexit was 50 plus 1 and now is a clusterfuck with less than 50% support.
The North has been unstable since day 1. I don't see the Irish Govt wanting to bring that into a UI. And I don't think much planning has been done either,

It is not changing the state, it is merely ending the exclusion of the 6 counties from Irish independence.

However, as I said about this idea of only two blocks mutually opposed is not the reality now. The 50%+1 person was someone who decided to vote for a UI on the day. The next person voted no because they thought they should wait a couple of years. The point is that neither of these people is going to lose their head whichever way the vote went.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 18, 2022, 09:06:55 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .
The wee sectarian statelet had a Protestant majority of 2 to 1 at the start so obviously it was forever.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 18, 2022, 09:33:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 18, 2022, 07:14:03 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 17, 2022, 12:59:21 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 17, 2022, 05:15:03 AM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 16, 2022, 11:16:22 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 15, 2022, 01:35:37 PM
51 won't work. The Brits won't go lower than 2/3. The occupied territories are complicated enough without a half arsed reunification.
Alright Seamus Mallon pipe down would ye lol. Surely then 50% plus 1 in favour of the union is not good enough to keep the status quo? 100,000s of unhappy unionists having to live with unification, we can't be having that, but it's alright for 100,000s of nationalist to be unhappy living in the union? 50 % plus one is all it should and will take. Its democracy, tough luck.
Of course it would be unfair. A sectarian headcount would take years. This is why Sinn Féin has started its outreach programme. 30% of Unionists may be amenable.
Thats all very good Seafoid but that's not what we are debating. You are advocating that reunification should be on the basis of some arbitrary figure higher than 50% plus. What should it be, 55%, 60%....? That's being dictated to by the minority. Like I said in my previous post, if you believe that 50% plus 1 isnt high enough support for unification, then there currently isn't high enough support for the status quo, and the logical conclusion would be joint authority between the Irish and British government. What you are suggesting doesn't stand up to scrutiny, and there is actually no precedent for it at all in Ireland or the UK. Never mind the fact that it would be unworkable in practice for various reasons.
I am not debating anything. The Brit position is upthread . 50 plus 1 is not  standard referendum practice for a change of State..
Brexit was 50 plus 1 and now is a clusterfuck with less than 50% support.
The North has been unstable since day 1. I don't see the Irish Govt wanting to bring that into a UI. And I don't think much planning has been done either,

What is your reference point here? Are you comparing to America?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 10:32:12 AM
I think these are just 2 things that need to be addressed :

1. Stormont needs to be depolarised and less amenable to being blown up by the DUP. This is a structural issue.

2.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/diarmaid-ferriter-peace-process-offers-lessons-for-those-who-seek-united-ireland-1.4520277
"What is needed at the very least is a north-south citizen's assembly over the long-term to discuss what both sides of the island have, or need to have, in common along with confronting what divides them."

Even if nationalists were 51% there wouldn't be a majority. A certain portion would be more comfortable with the status quo.
The Scottish Referendum is a great example. You have to be prepared, you have to bring the people with you  and you have to win first time.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: brokencrossbar1 on September 19, 2022, 10:49:27 AM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 10:32:12 AM
I think these are just 2 things that need to be addressed :

1. Stormont needs to be depolarised and less amenable to being blown up by the DUP. This is a structural issue.

2.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/diarmaid-ferriter-peace-process-offers-lessons-for-those-who-seek-united-ireland-1.4520277
"What is needed at the very least is a north-south citizen's assembly over the long-term to discuss what both sides of the island have, or need to have, in common along with confronting what divides them."

Even if nationalists were 51% there wouldn't be a majority. A certain portion would be more comfortable with the status quo.
The Scottish Referendum is a great example. You have to be prepared, you have to bring the people with you  and you have to win first time.

There has to be a dialogue about how it is going to happen before it happens. Learn from the mess of Brexit. Don't just say 'we are going to have a border poll' and then bill on ahead. SF actually are poor when it comes to what they see as the way forward. All they ever say is that it's going to happen. They should appoint a single spokesperson on it, so the research on how the notion of a 'new Ireland ' would work, build on that research so that when the inevitable border poll comes people are making an informed choice as opposed to a straight forward sectarian head count. That's the only way they will bring the middle/soft unionists with them 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 11:49:46 AM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.
Brexirt is a red herring. People were lied to. The vast majority had no idea actually what they were voting for. I spoke to expats in Spain who voted in favour of brexit
and now can't understand why the Spanish are kicking them out! Crazy. Unification referendum is far more clear cut. Everyone knows what they are voting for. They might not grasp the ramifications of that vote, but it's much easier to explain. Scottish referendum is also different in that you got an entire nation that will have to go out on its own, where as here the majority of the island is already standing on its own two feet, and that includes parts of the North as well. Plenty of ground work to be done all the same.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 11:51:25 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 19, 2022, 12:03:48 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 11:51:25 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.

You'd need to be an idiot not to recognise that 51% will cause issues also though. Im not saying I agree it should be different but it will not be easy managed at all.

I am not saying you are an idiot or anything



Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 03:41:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on September 19, 2022, 03:50:42 PM
Times frames?

5-10 years for referendum?
10-20
30-60?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 04:18:58 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 19, 2022, 12:03:48 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 11:51:25 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.

You'd need to be an idiot not to recognise that 51% will cause issues also though. Im not saying I agree it should be different but it will not be easy managed at all.

I am not saying you are an idiot or anything
Obviously you would want the vote to be as high as possible, and of course there would be some issues. But  that still doesn't warrant moving the goal posts. That's the only point I'm making.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 04:28:19 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on September 19, 2022, 03:50:42 PM
Times frames?

5-10 years for referendum?
10-20
30-60?

I think there will be a vote on Irish reunification before 2030, it may not be won but there will be a vote. SF in government in Dublin pushing the agenda will make a big difference. Current Irish government have made zero preparations because "the time is not right". The time will never be right for FF/FG because they do not want to risk losing power which is much more important to them than northern nationalists and distortion of trade and living standards on this Island.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2022, 04:30:16 PM
I am not as sure tbh. I would say longer. What if sf get into government and make a balls of it? I think they would need to get the 26 county house in order first.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 04:41:14 PM
Quote from: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 04:28:19 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on September 19, 2022, 03:50:42 PM
Times frames?

5-10 years for referendum?
10-20
30-60?

I think there will be a vote on Irish reunification before 2030, it may not be won but there will be a vote. SF in government in Dublin pushing the agenda will make a big difference. Current Irish government have made zero preparations because "the time is not right". The time will never be right for FF/FG because they do not want to risk losing power which is much more important to them than northern nationalists and distortion of trade and living standards on this Island.
A lost vote is pointless.
There is a strong economic case for a United Ireland that would trump the Irish Independent analysis but it needs to be articulated and supported.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 05:16:12 PM
Quote from: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 03:41:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

That's all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt they'd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2022, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 05:16:12 PM
Quote from: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 03:41:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

That's all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt they'd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining

The Scottish thing is a major problem for us. London does want to keep Scotland, but doesn't much care about NI. If the NI referendum was entirely stand alone then they might not bother stirring shit, as there is no advantage in doing so. But there is a danger of them stirring shit in relation to financial arrangements etc in order to prevent any suggest that the same terms apply to Scotland. A bit of careful thought is needed for a formula that favours NI and screws Scotland.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 06:02:06 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 19, 2022, 05:27:31 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 05:16:12 PM
Quote from: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 03:41:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

That's all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt they'd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining

The Scottish thing is a major problem for us. London does want to keep Scotland, but doesn't much care about NI. If the NI referendum was entirely stand alone then they might not bother stirring shit, as there is no advantage in doing so. But there is a danger of them stirring shit in relation to financial arrangements etc in order to prevent any suggest that the same terms apply to Scotland. A bit of careful thought is needed for a formula that favours NI and screws Scotland.
Scotland is similar to NI in that support for independence is close to 50% and that isn't enough for a definitive break. The SNP like SF need too bring people onside.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 19, 2022, 06:24:46 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 04:18:58 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 19, 2022, 12:03:48 PM
Quote from: HiMucker on September 19, 2022, 11:51:25 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 11:27:36 PM
Quote from: Wildweasel74 on September 18, 2022, 11:15:09 PM
I think a, Scottish referendum would have to be won 50+1% and accepted before we got any leeway here. After all brexit fucked us all over on a 51.89 to 48.11% basis.

" But Northern Ireland voted to stay" is the mantra coming from the same people saying 50 plus 1 is good enough in future ref
You would need to be an idiot not to grasp the difference in the two situations.

You'd need to be an idiot not to recognise that 51% will cause issues also though. Im not saying I agree it should be different but it will not be easy managed at all.

I am not saying you are an idiot or anything
Obviously you would want the vote to be as high as possible, and of course there would be some issues. But  that still doesn't warrant moving the goal posts. That's the only point I'm making.

Fair enough
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on September 19, 2022, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 06:02:06 PM
Scotland is similar to NI in that support for independence is close to 50% and that isn't enough for a definitive break. The SNP like SF need too bring people onside.

Do Scottish people not generally accept that if a majority of Scots want independence then it should have it?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 06:49:53 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 05:16:12 PM
Quote from: keep her low this half on September 19, 2022, 03:41:24 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 12:53:32 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 19, 2022, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on September 18, 2022, 09:39:54 PM
Quote from: AustinPowers on September 18, 2022, 08:24:27 PM
I don't remember hearing  anything about a 50% +1  when the sectarian statelet  was created .

You wouldn't have - it was 70 30 or there abouts

Maybe so , but my point was That there was no referendum.  The statelet was foisted upon northern nationalists . 

Anyway ., NI was created on a sectarian headcount.  So if there's a 50+1 yes vote for a UI , then that should  be enough. As that would  effectively mean the statelet no longer has a unionist majority and therefore  should cease to exist
Maybe there should be transition period with a referendum at the end.
The birth of NI was shameful. So was a lot of what followed.

There will be a transition period after a referendum not before. There should however be a preparation period for a referendum, 2- 3 years to thrash out the details, pension, healthcare etc. Post referendum it will take sometime to run down and disentangle the British state and integrate the Irish systems, welfare, healthcare etc, it could take 5 years post referendum but that would have to be a period of joint authority with it working towards integration with the republic.

That's all  well and good , but  the British government firstly have to agree to having a  referendum, and feck knows  how long that could take  .

And even  if they did agree to a referendum,  no doubt they'd  stir the shit like they did with the Scots,  regarding healthcare,  pensions etc .  Scaring them into  remaining
If the Brits could stop paying the subvention and could be assured that the North would be stable they would probably gladly hand it over.
Part of the reason the North is as it is now is because the Brits didn't invest in it for decades. Funding the RUC and social welfare do not count.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on September 19, 2022, 07:31:12 PM
I don't think the handing it over thing is true at all. They are destabilising things here and IMO intentionally to shit stir with the EU.

The brits don't invest in the north of England so the north of Ireland is unlikely to get much investment. A lot of peace funds etc have kept it afloat.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on September 19, 2022, 07:49:53 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on September 19, 2022, 06:27:15 PM
Quote from: seafoid on September 19, 2022, 06:02:06 PM
Scotland is similar to NI in that support for independence is close to 50% and that isn't enough for a definitive break. The SNP like SF need too bring people onside.

Do Scottish people not generally accept that if a majority of Scots want independence then it should have it?
The ground rules for the last one was a "simple majority" in favor carries the referendum.
A simple majority is defined as 50% plus one vote.
Changing that criteria to favor unionists would surely boost the ranks of  "Rebellious Scots".
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on November 23, 2022, 11:12:59 AM
The Scottish Government and Parliament firmly out in its "place" by the "UK Supreme Court".
Time they did an Ireland 1919 and withdraw from Westminster?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on November 23, 2022, 02:26:30 PM
Westminster will keep blocking any referendum  and every time Sturgeon talks about it , they'll say "oh here we go again "... the same  happens here when SF talk of a referendum.

I ALways thought the text in the GFA about a referendum was nonsense,  for the same reason above.

No doubt the Tories will be there for another  year or two , so their antics will no increase the  support for referenda in both places. But  Westminster will continue to dig in their heels about granting one
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eire90 on November 23, 2022, 03:19:00 PM
labour wont be giving snp a referendum either i think
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on November 23, 2022, 03:24:39 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on November 23, 2022, 03:19:00 PM
labour wont be giving snp a referendum either i think
Tories will probably use threat of labour coalition with snp as a vote winner in next election
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on November 23, 2022, 04:04:31 PM
What's to stop Scotland holding a vote, despite the fact it won't be recognised or implemented ... even to have a vote to show x% of people now want Scottish Independence, what ye gonna do about it Westminster .... short of meeting the English in a field near Stirling, it looks like Scotland are forever tied into the Union?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on November 23, 2022, 04:14:10 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on November 23, 2022, 04:04:31 PM
What's to stop Scotland holding a vote, despite the fact it won't be recognised or implemented ... even to have a vote to show x% of people now want Scottish Independence, what ye gonna do about it Westminster .... short of meeting the English in a field near Stirling, it looks like Scotland are forever tied into the Union?

What happened in Catelonia after they held a referendum without approval from the Spanish state? All the main independence leaders got thrown in jail. Scotland is a colony, same as Northern Ireland and same as the Catalans and the Basques.
The scots need to start civil disobedience like Gandhi at this point as they no longer have a legal way to leave the UK.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: AustinPowers on November 23, 2022, 04:56:04 PM
The Tories will start (they already have done)  discrediting sturgeon , making up all kinds of allegations and firing all kinds of lies at her to hamper the Scots  independence campaign.  That will hold back the campaign for another decade. Then do the same  with her replacement .

Sure the same  goes on in the north . A 2 second video makes the headline news.  Anything to tarnish any talk or discussion on a unity referendum
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eire90 on November 23, 2022, 04:58:41 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on November 23, 2022, 04:04:31 PM
What's to stop Scotland holding a vote, despite the fact it won't be recognised or implemented ... even to have a vote to show x% of people now want Scottish Independence, what ye gonna do about it Westminster .... short of meeting the English in a field near Stirling, it looks like Scotland are forever tied into the Union?


sunak would have the right to send tanks to edinburgh and take the snp out
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: An Watcher on November 23, 2022, 07:51:45 PM
If thus is Sturgeons last stand do they have a strong leader coming behind her? Hopefully so
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: balladmaker on November 23, 2022, 07:53:57 PM
What today's ruling shows that it isn't and never will be a union of equals.  It's more akin to a hostage situation where one party wishes to leave and the other won't let them.  Surely the judgement is another nail in the union's coffin in the long run.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eire90 on November 23, 2022, 09:39:35 PM
should snp stand down and merge with labour
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Franko on November 23, 2022, 10:20:38 PM
Quote from: Eire90 on November 23, 2022, 04:58:41 PM
Quote from: balladmaker on November 23, 2022, 04:04:31 PM
What's to stop Scotland holding a vote, despite the fact it won't be recognised or implemented ... even to have a vote to show x% of people now want Scottish Independence, what ye gonna do about it Westminster .... short of meeting the English in a field near Stirling, it looks like Scotland are forever tied into the Union?


sunak would have the right to send tanks to edinburgh and take the snp out

Ye wha?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on November 23, 2022, 10:25:37 PM
This is gonna get serious in Scotland imo. Being pro union is one thing but denying democracy is another. 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Franko on November 23, 2022, 10:26:57 PM
This is not a blow for the SNP

Sturgeon knew exactly how this was going to play out - any fool getting legal advice should've known that the devolved administrations can't just call a referendum and leave of their own accord - the decision was always going go be this way

Hence the UK Govt requested that the Supreme Court decline to rule on the matter at all

She asked the question to demonstrate exactly what someone said earlier - that the way things are is akin to a hostage situation

Except that nobody's really sure if the hostage wants to leave it's captor

They asked him a few years ago but Stockholm Syndrome meant that he didn't want to go.

But now they've cut him to one meal a day and gagged him so he can't be asked the question again

Today's ruling was a boost for the independence campaign
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on November 24, 2022, 09:04:01 AM
Quote from: Franko on November 23, 2022, 10:26:57 PM
This is not a blow for the SNP

Sturgeon knew exactly how this was going to play out - any fool getting legal advice should've known that the devolved administrations can't just call a referendum and leave of their own accord - the decision was always going go be this way

Hence the UK Govt requested that the Supreme Court decline to rule on the matter at all

She asked the question to demonstrate exactly what someone said earlier - that the way things are is akin to a hostage situation

Except that nobody's really sure if the hostage wants to leave it's captor

They asked him a few years ago but Stockholm Syndrome meant that he didn't want to go.

But now they've cut him to one meal a day and gagged him so he can't be asked the question again

Today's ruling was a boost for the independence campaign

Exactly this.

If the UKSC had ruled in favour of the SNP they'd have been like a dog chasing a car, and finally getting caught up with it, not knowing what to do. The SNP knew they needed another "wedge" issue and the UKSC have handed them one, the denial of democracy to the Scottish voter, so it will be interesting how the next GE goes north of the GB border.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RedHand88 on November 24, 2022, 03:05:52 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on November 24, 2022, 09:04:01 AM
Quote from: Franko on November 23, 2022, 10:26:57 PM
This is not a blow for the SNP

Sturgeon knew exactly how this was going to play out - any fool getting legal advice should've known that the devolved administrations can't just call a referendum and leave of their own accord - the decision was always going go be this way

Hence the UK Govt requested that the Supreme Court decline to rule on the matter at all

She asked the question to demonstrate exactly what someone said earlier - that the way things are is akin to a hostage situation

Except that nobody's really sure if the hostage wants to leave it's captor

They asked him a few years ago but Stockholm Syndrome meant that he didn't want to go.

But now they've cut him to one meal a day and gagged him so he can't be asked the question again

Today's ruling was a boost for the independence campaign

Exactly this.

If the UKSC had ruled in favour of the SNP they'd have been like a dog chasing a car, and finally getting caught up with it, not knowing what to do. The SNP knew they needed another "wedge" issue and the UKSC have handed them one, the denial of democracy to the Scottish voter, so it will be interesting how the next GE goes north of the GB border.

Does it though? If the SNP pick up every single seat north of the border does it actually make them more powerful? The power ultimately resides with Westminster.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Franko on November 24, 2022, 05:53:38 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on November 24, 2022, 03:05:52 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on November 24, 2022, 09:04:01 AM
Quote from: Franko on November 23, 2022, 10:26:57 PM
This is not a blow for the SNP

Sturgeon knew exactly how this was going to play out - any fool getting legal advice should've known that the devolved administrations can't just call a referendum and leave of their own accord - the decision was always going go be this way

Hence the UK Govt requested that the Supreme Court decline to rule on the matter at all

She asked the question to demonstrate exactly what someone said earlier - that the way things are is akin to a hostage situation

Except that nobody's really sure if the hostage wants to leave it's captor

They asked him a few years ago but Stockholm Syndrome meant that he didn't want to go.

But now they've cut him to one meal a day and gagged him so he can't be asked the question again

Today's ruling was a boost for the independence campaign

Exactly this.

If the UKSC had ruled in favour of the SNP they'd have been like a dog chasing a car, and finally getting caught up with it, not knowing what to do. The SNP knew they needed another "wedge" issue and the UKSC have handed them one, the denial of democracy to the Scottish voter, so it will be interesting how the next GE goes north of the GB border.

Does it though? If the SNP pick up every single seat north of the border does it actually make them more powerful? The power ultimately resides with Westminster.

It definitely does

But Sturgeon's strategy here is to present a case that the Scots want away, but London won't let them

She wants to destroy the whole 'voluntary union of equals' nonsense

The SNP (hypothetically) winning every seat in Scotland on an independence manifesto would a clear demonstration of this and would make it very difficult politically for Westminster to deny a referendum

There nothing that makes you want to do something more than some superior cnut telling you that you can't
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on November 24, 2022, 06:55:49 PM
Quote from: Franko on November 24, 2022, 05:53:38 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on November 24, 2022, 03:05:52 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on November 24, 2022, 09:04:01 AM
Quote from: Franko on November 23, 2022, 10:26:57 PM
This is not a blow for the SNP

Sturgeon knew exactly how this was going to play out - any fool getting legal advice should've known that the devolved administrations can't just call a referendum and leave of their own accord - the decision was always going go be this way

Hence the UK Govt requested that the Supreme Court decline to rule on the matter at all

She asked the question to demonstrate exactly what someone said earlier - that the way things are is akin to a hostage situation

Except that nobody's really sure if the hostage wants to leave it's captor

They asked him a few years ago but Stockholm Syndrome meant that he didn't want to go.

But now they've cut him to one meal a day and gagged him so he can't be asked the question again

Today's ruling was a boost for the independence campaign

Exactly this.

If the UKSC had ruled in favour of the SNP they'd have been like a dog chasing a car, and finally getting caught up with it, not knowing what to do. The SNP knew they needed another "wedge" issue and the UKSC have handed them one, the denial of democracy to the Scottish voter, so it will be interesting how the next GE goes north of the GB border.

Does it though? If the SNP pick up every single seat north of the border does it actually make them more powerful? The power ultimately resides with Westminster.

It definitely does

But Sturgeon's strategy here is to present a case that the Scots want away, but London won't let them

She wants to destroy the whole 'voluntary union of equals' nonsense

The SNP (hypothetically) winning every seat in Scotland on an independence manifesto would a clear demonstration of this and would make it very difficult politically for Westminster to deny a referendum

There nothing that makes you want to do something more than some superior cnut telling you that you can't

Especially in a Rees Mogg accent..

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Eire90 on November 25, 2022, 10:12:46 AM
The scots wont do anything but moan online
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on November 25, 2022, 10:25:48 AM
Quote from: Eire90 on November 25, 2022, 10:12:46 AM
The scots wont do anything but moan online
seemed to be a right few on the streets the other day.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 15, 2023, 01:41:06 PM
With Nicola going, what does the future hold for Scotland & the SNP? I don't know much about the leading lights behind the scene, is there any charismatic unknown waiting to take the place by storm?? Will Blackford be parachuted in from Westminster?

I thought Sturgeon was reading the room very badly in the whole transgender / self identification scenario and then your rapist (wo)man trying to self id as female was the final nail in the coffin.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on February 15, 2023, 02:02:51 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 15, 2023, 01:41:06 PM
With Nicola going, what does the future hold for Scotland & the SNP? I don't know much about the leading lights behind the scene, is there any charismatic unknown waiting to take the place by storm?? Will Blackford be parachuted in from Westminster?

I thought Sturgeon was reading the room very badly in the whole transgender / self identification scenario and then your rapist (wo)man trying to self id as female was the final nail in the coffin.
Yeah that stuff was all madness. Apparently some financial irregularities involving the snp and her husband are going to come out so maybe that is part of the reason. I think she said lately that she had plenty left to give so wouldn't be surprised if she's being pushed out.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on February 15, 2023, 02:25:26 PM
Yeah I think there are maybe skeletons in the closet here. It just seems too quick.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: trailer on February 15, 2023, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 15, 2023, 01:41:06 PM
With Nicola going, what does the future hold for Scotland & the SNP? I don't know much about the leading lights behind the scene, is there any charismatic unknown waiting to take the place by storm?? Will Blackford be parachuted in from Westminster?

I thought Sturgeon was reading the room very badly in the whole transgender / self identification scenario and then your rapist (wo)man trying to self id as female was the final nail in the coffin.

This will end many many careers. Dogmatic support for Transgender people without a care for others will be many peoples downfall. The vast majority don't support Men who are transitioning to women with unfettered access to toilets, sports, changing rooms and prisons!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on February 15, 2023, 02:32:20 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 15, 2023, 02:25:26 PM
Yeah I think there are maybe skeletons in the closet here. It just seems too quick.

The London media were always going to be digging very deep to discredit here although they don't seem overly bothered by the shítshow going on in Westminster
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on February 15, 2023, 02:38:17 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on February 15, 2023, 02:32:20 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 15, 2023, 02:25:26 PM
Yeah I think there are maybe skeletons in the closet here. It just seems too quick.

The London media were always going to be digging very deep to discredit here although they don't seem overly bothered by the shítshow going on in Westminster
Yeah whatever scandal they dig up about Sturgeon it'll be half as bad and get twice the coverage and outrage that the Tories scandals get!
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on February 15, 2023, 02:49:43 PM
There are that many scandals they're not scandals any more in the tory party. It's nigh impossible for the media, or anyone else, to keep up.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: bennydorano on February 15, 2023, 03:09:34 PM
Potential candidates https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-64648987
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Kidder81 on February 15, 2023, 07:20:53 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on February 15, 2023, 02:32:20 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 15, 2023, 02:25:26 PM
Yeah I think there are maybe skeletons in the closet here. It just seems too quick.

The London media were always going to be digging very deep to discredit here although they don't seem overly bothered by the shítshow going on in Westminster

Sturgeon fucked it up all by herself, nothing to do with the media
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on February 16, 2023, 05:57:14 PM
Quote from: trailer on February 15, 2023, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 15, 2023, 01:41:06 PM
With Nicola going, what does the future hold for Scotland & the SNP? I don't know much about the leading lights behind the scene, is there any charismatic unknown waiting to take the place by storm?? Will Blackford be parachuted in from Westminster?

I thought Sturgeon was reading the room very badly in the whole transgender / self identification scenario and then your rapist (wo)man trying to self id as female was the final nail in the coffin.

This will end many many careers. Dogmatic support for Transgender people without a care for others will be many peoples downfall. The vast majority don't support Men who are transitioning to women with unfettered access to toilets, sports, changing rooms and prisons!
The tide seems to be turning alright. Especially given the very poor trans quality control.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RedHand88 on February 16, 2023, 07:33:03 PM
Quote from: seafoid on February 16, 2023, 05:57:14 PM
Quote from: trailer on February 15, 2023, 02:31:49 PM
Quote from: bennydorano on February 15, 2023, 01:41:06 PM
With Nicola going, what does the future hold for Scotland & the SNP? I don't know much about the leading lights behind the scene, is there any charismatic unknown waiting to take the place by storm?? Will Blackford be parachuted in from Westminster?

I thought Sturgeon was reading the room very badly in the whole transgender / self identification scenario and then your rapist (wo)man trying to self id as female was the final nail in the coffin.

This will end many many careers. Dogmatic support for Transgender people without a care for others will be many peoples downfall. The vast majority don't support Men who are transitioning to women with unfettered access to toilets, sports, changing rooms and prisons!
The tide seems to be turning alright. Especially given the very poor trans quality control.

I agree. I've noticed a few things in the last while that make me think this is a phase as opposed to the new norm. The Tavistock clinic being shut down, the women's rugby union banning it, as well as people I know who would have supported them vehemently in the past now accepting there are issues that need to be considered.

I think there is a cultural shift slowly happening. They tried to get everyone to boycott the new Harry Potter game because of JK Rowling.
It's becoming one of the highest selling games ever.

Having the Sam Smiths of this world as their poster person does them no favours.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on February 16, 2023, 07:37:54 PM
The sport argument is a big thing in it which will impact it greatly and JK Rowling's views on it I would say are huge too because she can't exactly be accused of being a big right winger etc.

Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RedHand88 on February 16, 2023, 07:40:51 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 16, 2023, 07:37:54 PM
The sport argument is a big thing in it which will impact it greatly and JK Rowling's views on it I would say are huge too because she can't exactly be accused of being a big right winger etc.

That's it like. She's left wing on basically every other issue. But because she deviates from their left wing argument on this one issue she gets threatened with a pipe bomb and has her address revealed online.

These people are nuts.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: imtommygunn on February 16, 2023, 07:43:07 PM
She has appeared in a podcast with Megan Raphoe on the subject. I read the article on it but haven't listened to it. Same with anything these days - way more nuances than a black or white thing yet a lot of people try to break it down to black and white and then if you don't you're terrible.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Armagh18 on February 16, 2023, 08:46:47 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on February 16, 2023, 07:40:51 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 16, 2023, 07:37:54 PM
The sport argument is a big thing in it which will impact it greatly and JK Rowling's views on it I would say are huge too because she can't exactly be accused of being a big right winger etc.

That's it like. She's left wing on basically every other issue. But because she deviates from their left wing argument on this one issue she gets threatened with a pipe bomb and has her address revealed online.

These people are nuts.
I really don't get the hate she gets tbh. She's a terf apparently whatever that means
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 27, 2023, 05:53:34 PM
Hopefully this lad can lead them back to independence

https://www.rte.ie/news/uk/2023/0327/1366495-scotland/
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 27, 2023, 05:54:35 PM
Quote from: Armagh18 on February 16, 2023, 08:46:47 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on February 16, 2023, 07:40:51 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on February 16, 2023, 07:37:54 PM
The sport argument is a big thing in it which will impact it greatly and JK Rowling's views on it I would say are huge too because she can't exactly be accused of being a big right winger etc.

That's it like. She's left wing on basically every other issue. But because she deviates from their left wing argument on this one issue she gets threatened with a pipe bomb and has her address revealed online.

These people are nuts.
I really don't get the hate she gets tbh. She's a terf apparently whatever that means
Trans exclusionary radical female. A normal woman.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: johnnycool on March 29, 2023, 12:30:07 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on March 27, 2023, 05:53:34 PM
Hopefully this lad can lead them back to independence

https://www.rte.ie/news/uk/2023/0327/1366495-scotland/

Stolen from Twitter;

"An Indian origin British PM and Pakistani origin Scottish First Minister potentially discussing the Partition of the United Kingdom is a hell of an Uno Reverse"
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on March 29, 2023, 12:35:41 PM
Hopefully they succeed.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on March 29, 2023, 01:36:14 PM
In Ireland in 1910 you had a similar situation with Unionists wanting to stay and Nationalists wanting to leave. Nothing changed the situation until 1916 and the executions. Scotland will be stuck in stasis until something big happens like economic collapse.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 10:37:32 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823)

Would this be why she stepped down? Did she know this was coming? Was the transgender prisoner thing a red herring?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: marty34 on April 05, 2023, 10:42:02 AM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 10:37:32 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823)

Would this be why she stepped down? Did she know this was coming? Was the transgender prisoner thing a red herring?

Was thinking that myself.

Jumped before she was pushed.

I wonder will it do the SNP any longer term harm?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: seafoid on April 05, 2023, 11:18:12 AM
Sturgeon brought the nationalists as far as she could. Organic developments are not going to bring them over the line.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Main Street on April 05, 2023, 11:44:24 AM
Talk about overkill,  you'd think they were investigating someone of the calibre of Fred West instead of a bit of fraud.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/AB84/production/_129280934_murrellhome-pa2.jpg.webp).
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on April 05, 2023, 12:46:41 PM
it is overkill, they could probably have phoned the guy and asked him to come down to the station for a chat.

I find it hard to believe that he was looting the funds, unless he took a large amount then it simply wouldn't be worth it given that himself and the missus had reasonable prospects anyhow.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on April 05, 2023, 12:53:07 PM
Shades of the infamous raid on Stormont......
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 12:56:46 PM
I know one thing anyway. Scottish independence is done for a long long time.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 01:12:20 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 05, 2023, 12:46:41 PM
it is overkill, they could probably have phoned the guy and asked him to come down to the station for a chat.

I find it hard to believe that he was looting the funds, unless he took a large amount then it simply wouldn't be worth it given that himself and the missus had reasonable prospects anyhow.

And give him the chance to get rid of the evidence if he's guilty? Nah.

The funds went somewhere. Hundreds of thousands of pounds fundraised for a non existent independence referendum have vanished from SNP coppers.
There were 7 whistle-blowers.
BBC say they are searching the back garden.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on April 05, 2023, 02:40:06 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 01:12:20 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 05, 2023, 12:46:41 PM
it is overkill, they could probably have phoned the guy and asked him to come down to the station for a chat.

I find it hard to believe that he was looting the funds, unless he took a large amount then it simply wouldn't be worth it given that himself and the missus had reasonable prospects anyhow.

And give him the chance to get rid of the evidence if he's guilty? Nah.

The funds went somewhere. Hundreds of thousands of pounds fundraised for a non existent independence referendum have vanished from SNP coppers.
There were 7 whistle-blowers.
BBC say they are searching the back garden.

Unless he is a complete gobshite, then the evidence is not still in the house.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on April 05, 2023, 03:21:28 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on April 05, 2023, 12:46:41 PM
it is overkill, they could probably have phoned the guy and asked him to come down to the station for a chat.

I find it hard to believe that he was looting the funds, unless he took a large amount then it simply wouldn't be worth it given that himself and the missus had reasonable prospects anyhow.

I haven't actually heard anyone accusing him of looting the funds.

From what I hear the funds have been used for purposes other than that for which they were raised and the allegation is that as membership revenues have reduced these funds have used to plug the gap and that this has been covered up by the CEO to the extent that the CFO wasn't even told.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Orior on April 05, 2023, 04:29:03 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 10:37:32 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823)

Would this be why she stepped down? Did she know this was coming? Was the transgender prisoner thing a red herring?

Is it her ex-husband?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: smelmoth on April 05, 2023, 04:34:29 PM
Quote from: Orior on April 05, 2023, 04:29:03 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 10:37:32 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823)

Would this be why she stepped down? Did she know this was coming? Was the transgender prisoner thing a red herring?

Is it her ex-husband?

Not unless there is more breaking news
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on April 05, 2023, 06:16:55 PM
Quote from: Orior on April 05, 2023, 04:29:03 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 10:37:32 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823)

Would this be why she stepped down? Did she know this was coming? Was the transgender prisoner thing a red herring?

Is it her ex-husband?

Honey, I took all the money from the SNP for independence and backed horses with it.... 
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Jeepers Creepers on April 05, 2023, 06:39:28 PM
Quote from: Orior on April 05, 2023, 04:29:03 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on April 05, 2023, 10:37:32 AM
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65187823)

Would this be why she stepped down? Did she know this was coming? Was the transgender prisoner thing a red herring?

Is it her ex-husband?

Will be soon I would imagine.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: RadioGAAGAA on April 05, 2023, 06:58:53 PM
So, the SNP got ~600k in donations to spend "on an independence referendum", or on "achieving independence"?

Yer man then lent an additional ~100k, of which he got back ~50k - and the SNP are still a bit skint.


I suppose depends on the exact wording of what the donations were for - but if the SNP have "we will seek a further independence referendum" on their manifesto, gonna be hard to prove that spending it on the party in general doesn't equate to trying to deliver their manifesto which in itself is trying to deliver an independence referendum.

Or is the problem that yer man treated himself as a (somewhat) secured creditor in a questionably insolvent organisation?
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Rossfan on April 06, 2023, 09:46:23 AM
https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-41110561.html
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: armaghniac on June 11, 2023, 02:52:34 PM
Nicola Sturgeon arrested
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-65871857
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: keep her low this half on June 12, 2023, 09:56:22 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 11, 2023, 02:52:34 PM
Nicola Sturgeon arrested
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-65871857
Nicola Sturgeon released without charge. Handy how it got Boris and the Tory infighting off the front pages.
Title: Re: Scottish independence referendum thread
Post by: Milltown Row2 on June 12, 2023, 10:40:28 AM
The other two were released without charge also but pending investigation