Westminster Election 12th December 2019

[smelmoth]

Interesting debate. I'm a Labour supporter and a Corbyn fan. I think he edged the debate rather than won it hands down when judged at a surface level. Corbyn didn't land a fatal blow on the NHS and Johnson didn't land one on Brexit.

In terms of meaningful answers with substance rather than bluster then yes Corbyn really did win. It's disheartening how much traction Johnson's bluster is allowed to get. He told a couple of barefaced lies tonight and maybe it was time for Corbyn to call him out as a liar

[yellowcard]

Interesting debate. I'm a Labour supporter and a Corbyn fan. I think he edged the debate rather than won it hands down when judged at a surface level. Corbyn didn't land a fatal blow on the NHS and Johnson didn't land one on Brexit.

In terms of meaningful answers with substance rather than bluster then yes Corbyn really did win. It's disheartening how much traction Johnson's bluster is allowed to get. He told a couple of barefaced lies tonight and maybe it was time for Corbyn to call him out as a liar

It's not really Corbyn's debating style to land blows and I think he deliberately tried to avoid confrontation in order to try and hammer home the point about inequality, homelessness,poverty and failing public services.

It beggars belief how Johnson blustered his way to the top and apart from soundbites he offered nothing of substance. He was only saved by the format which meant relatively short answers with little time for hard questioning on detail.

[Saffrongael]

Interesting debate. I'm a Labour supporter and a Corbyn fan. I think he edged the debate rather than won it hands down when judged at a surface level. Corbyn didn't land a fatal blow on the NHS and Johnson didn't land one on Brexit.

In terms of meaningful answers with substance rather than bluster then yes Corbyn really did win. It's disheartening how much traction Johnson's bluster is allowed to get. He told a couple of barefaced lies tonight and maybe it was time for Corbyn to call him out as a liar

It's not really Corbyn's debating style to land blows and I think he deliberately tried to avoid confrontation in order to try and hammer home the point about inequality, homelessness,poverty and failing public services.

It beggars belief how Johnson blustered his way to the top and apart from soundbites he offered nothing of substance. He was only saved by the format which meant relatively short answers with little time for hard questioning on detail.

Homelessness was at its highest under Labour in the early noughties

[oneflewoverthecuckoonest]

boris won that debate easily....the electorate that count in the key constituencies heard a clear message from boris and more utopian bluster from jerry.

everytime dear old jerry is on the plinth, I simply think Venezuela and looks what socialism achieved in that country.

what shocks me even more is the posters on this forum who are in denial and think a miracle will happen next Thursday....afraid not, brexit stage one will be done and dusted by January.

[seafoid]

Jo Maugham QC's Tweets

Jo Maugham QC
@JolyonMaugham

Johnson on:
✖homosexuals: "tank topped bum boys"; like "dogs"
✖Working class men: "drunk, criminal, feckless"
✖Africans: "picanninies"
✖Muslims: "letter boxes", "bank robbers"
✖female MPs: "hot totty"
✖single mums: "uppity and irresponsible"
✖poor: "chavs, the losers

[smelmoth]

boris won that debate easily....the electorate that count in the key constituencies heard a clear message from boris and more utopian bluster from jerry.

everytime dear old jerry is on the plinth, I simply think Venezuela and looks what socialism achieved in that country.

what shocks me even more is the posters on this forum who are in denial and think a miracle will happen next Thursday....afraid not, brexit stage one will be done and dusted by January.

If the media and commentators do their work Johnson will get pulled apart for that performance. You can't say someone won a debate if they lie their way through the answers. This has to be exposed. At one stage he claimed that "Labour would raise all their tax from 150 billionaires ". Surely there cannot be a single sane person who actually believes Labour have said that. Even Boris cannot believe it but he doesn't flinch when saying it.

The 50k new nurses was repeated. He did start by differentiating between "new" and "more" but then reverted to the "new" mantra. He repeated the 40 new hospitals and when called out he differentiated between new and refurb and between actual and seed capital. You can't get treated in a hospital that only has seed capital. It needs built. That costs money. That cost is not in their manifesto and not in their budget. The Tories claim is that hospitals will be built in unspecified locations without taxes or borrowing going up or spending elsewhere coming down. And Labour are accused of Utopian dreams? Johnson said the work had started on the new hospitals and he was "proud" of the work. Show me where this work is??
The 20k new police officers was repeated. Where are they. I do get that increasing police numbers cannot be done at the click of a finger and these increases can be done over the life of the parliament but Johnson has claimed to have met some of these officers. They don't yet exist. How can he have met them?

Labour would apparently abolish MI5. Is that in their manifesto?

Labour would apparently spend £1.2 trillion a year. The £1.2t figure must have been rattling around in his skull and he fired it out with "sheep as a lamb" style logic. This is how he appears to operate. It's a Tory figure. It relates to borrowing over the life of a 5 year parliament not spending in a single year and was dreamed up by the Tories based upon 100% of the Labour 2017 manifesto plus 100% of motions passed for consideration at the Labour 2019 Party conference being implemented on day 1 of a Labour government without the same government generating any additional tax revenue. The nationalisation costs are pure fiction and massively exceed all market expectations. It's raving nonsense. It's not mathematically correct. It's not based upon Labour's actual manifesto and it takes all ambitions to achieve something over the life of a parliament as being delivered on day 1 including nationalisations.
Labour's actual borrowing plans are for investment. The nation gets something in return. The IFS predict similar borrowing by the Tories if they don't get their EU trade agreement by January 2021. That won't be borrowing for investment. The realisation of an ERG wet dream is all the nation gets in return for that particular bucket of debt.

Johnson claims Labour' business tax rates would be the highest in Europe. Plenty of league tables have Been published on this. I'm sure even as he uttered the line he knew this was a whopper of a lie. It just doesn't stop him though.

Corbyn did repeat the line that his manifesto is fully costed. This was true when it was published. It may or may not still be true. After it was costed the WASPI commitment was made. At £56b it's a pretty chunky commitment. It falls due over a number of years and is to be funded from reserves and only borrowing if reserves prove insufficient. The breakdown of this hasn't been published.

[Rossfan]

ot, brexit stage one will be done and dusted by January.

Nothing like a Turkey looking forward to Chrustmas

[seafoid]

https://ft.com/content/932e1582-1875-11ea-8d73-6303645ac406...

"Privately some Conservative MPs believe the party is heading towards a significant victory next week, although Mr Johnson's camp is haunted by memories of how Theresa May's lead crumbled in the last days of the 2017 campaign."

[yellowcard]

boris won that debate easily....the electorate that count in the key constituencies heard a clear message from boris and more utopian bluster from jerry.

everytime dear old jerry is on the plinth, I simply think Venezuela and looks what socialism achieved in that country.

what shocks me even more is the posters on this forum who are in denial and think a miracle will happen next Thursday....afraid not, brexit stage one will be done and dusted by January.

If the media and commentators do their work Johnson will get pulled apart for that performance. You can't say someone won a debate if they lie their way through the answers. This has to be exposed. At one stage he claimed that "Labour would raise all their tax from 150 billionaires ". Surely there cannot be a single sane person who actually believes Labour have said that. Even Boris cannot believe it but he doesn't flinch when saying it.

The 50k new nurses was repeated. He did start by differentiating between "new" and "more" but then reverted to the "new" mantra. He repeated the 40 new hospitals and when called out he differentiated between new and refurb and between actual and seed capital. You can't get treated in a hospital that only has seed capital. It needs built. That costs money. That cost is not in their manifesto and not in their budget. The Tories claim is that hospitals will be built in unspecified locations without taxes or borrowing going up or spending elsewhere coming down. And Labour are accused of Utopian dreams? Johnson said the work had started on the new hospitals and he was "proud" of the work. Show me where this work is??
The 20k new police officers was repeated. Where are they. I do get that increasing police numbers cannot be done at the click of a finger and these increases can be done over the life of the parliament but Johnson has claimed to have met some of these officers. They don't yet exist. How can he have met them?

Labour would apparently abolish MI5. Is that in their manifesto?

Labour would apparently spend £1.2 trillion a year. The £1.2t figure must have been rattling around in his skull and he fired it out with "sheep as a lamb" style logic. This is how he appears to operate. It's a Tory figure. It relates to borrowing over the life of a 5 year parliament not spending in a single year and was dreamed up by the Tories based upon 100% of the Labour 2017 manifesto plus 100% of motions passed for consideration at the Labour 2019 Party conference being implemented on day 1 of a Labour government without the same government generating any additional tax revenue. The nationalisation costs are pure fiction and massively exceed all market expectations. It's raving nonsense. It's not mathematically correct. It's not based upon Labour's actual manifesto and it takes all ambitions to achieve something over the life of a parliament as being delivered on day 1 including nationalisations.
Labour's actual borrowing plans are for investment. The nation gets something in return. The IFS predict similar borrowing by the Tories if they don't get their EU trade agreement by January 2021. That won't be borrowing for investment. The realisation of an ERG wet dream is all the nation gets in return for that particular bucket of debt.

Johnson claims Labour' business tax rates would be the highest in Europe. Plenty of league tables have Been published on this. I'm sure even as he uttered the line he knew this was a whopper of a lie. It just doesn't stop him though.

Corbyn did repeat the line that his manifesto is fully costed. This was true when it was published. It may or may not still be true. After it was costed the WASPI commitment was made. At £56b it's a pretty chunky commitment. It falls due over a number of years and is to be funded from reserves and only borrowing if reserves prove insufficient. The breakdown of this hasn't been published.

Johnson SHOULD get pulled apart but he won't, or certainly to knowhere near the extent that he should. The right wing UK media do not want to see a party in government who will affect their own pockets and strip away some of their power. Even if it is only subconsciously, the thought of Corbyn in power scares the beejaysus out of the print and broadcast media. Corbyn could easily shift towards the centre, and he may or may not stand a better chance of getting elected but then he would be compromising his own socialist principles. I thought that what came across again last night was that here is a decent genuine bloke with admirable principles in seeking social justice for all citizens most particularly for those without a voice in society. And he has a plan to do it. Those who already seen him as useless, a loser or a racist will not have changed their minds because to a large degree they feel threatened by him and how it might affect their pockets. The anti semite, racist, terrorist loving smears are simply a smokescreen for that same fear.

Boris Johnson is not held to anywhere near the same standards because many individuals privately support his policies and those of his party. He might have more personal charisma but he is campaigning to be prime minister not some sort of cabaret act. If I want to watch a clown act, I'll go to the circus.

The main question is whether or not the conservative party get a workable majority in next weeks election. I don't believe it is anywhere near a foregone conclusion and that if he does it will be a very small majority. The pollsters got it badly wrong the last time as Labour surged in the last week and they could get it wrong again.               

[seafoid]

The Tories called the election to avoid
Parliamentary scrutiny of Johnson's deal.
The UK is really at a crossroads.

[balladmaker]

It's unreal how anti-Corbyn the press are in general.  Now attention on the papers Labour released about Boris putting the NHS on the negotiation table with the US has been diverted to Russian interference. 

The UK is heading for self-destruction next Thursday when Boris wins a majority, Scottish independence and Irish Reunification are now the most sensible ways forward.

[seafoid]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/07/general-election-poll-tories-eight-point-lead/

"The Conservatives' lead has fallen back down to eight points over the last week, according to a poll which puts the party on course for a majority of 14.

On Saturday the results of a separate Savanta ComRes survey, for Remain United, emerged which pointed to just a six point lead for the Conservatives. However it was begun two days before the separate survey for this newspaper. "

Below 7 is understood to mean a hung Parliament

[Ambrose]

The Tories will have a very comfortable majority this time next week. Corbyn will resign.

[seafoid]

Another way of looking at it

Tories on 41. Labour on 33. LD on 12 is key.  Remain is thus 45. 45> 41



To guarantee Remain , a last minute surge to Labour would be necessary. All down to tactical voting now.

[yellowcard]

Lucid Talk poll in todays Sunday Times:

Nationalists: 2% want to leave EU & 74% want to remain
Unionists: 38% want to leave EU & 41% want to remain

6% of Unionists & 7% of nationalists are in favour of Boris Johnsons deal.

The big take from this is that Unionists are now majority in favour of remain. How will this translate into election votes. Logically you would think that this would translate into a backlash against the DUP but I'm not sure that this will actually happen at all.