The Many Faces of US Politics...

[RedHand88]

Surely the dems can't win texas, can they? That would be the biggest story of the night regardless of what else happens.

[sid waddell]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Yes but Trump has zero evidence and zero reason to claim fraud by Democrats whereas Democrats have every reason to fear fraud by Republicans and then some

It's yet another "big lie", in Goebbelsian terminology

Trump claiming fraud is projection - falsely accuse others of that what you plan to carry out yourself


The threat of fraud comes from only one side - the Republicans, and that threat is front and centre, the red warning lights are flashing furiously

It's also a trap - which the Democrats, being appalling at strategy, fall straight into

Because Trump falsely claims fraud, the Democrats then reflexively deny there will be fraud - but there will be  fraud - and the Democrats will be the victims, as they always are

Even after at last 20 years of this, there are still a lot of Democratic leaning commentators who haven't a clue what they're dealing with and are either gutless for the fight or have a deluded, fantastical view in the integrity of American institutions - the Irish based American commentator Larry Donnelly is an example of that - a clueless virgin who thinks the real world is an episode of the West Wing

[sid waddell]

Surely the dems can't win texas, can they? That would be the biggest story of the night regardless of what else happens.

If the election was carried out in the manner that elections happen in Ireland or the UK, ie. under a system which is not set up to disenfranchise people, the Democrats could and likely would win Texas

They would certainly win Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

[J70]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Nothing ironic about. Trump is trying to game the system beforehand by setting up a false narrative about fraud and how the election MUST be called on the night of November 3rd. He has explicitly said that the only way he will lose is if the election is fraudulent.

Have you heard anything like that from Biden?

[Taylor]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Nothing ironic about. Trump is trying to game the system beforehand by setting up a false narrative about fraud and how the election MUST be called on the night of November 3rd. He has explicitly said that the only way he will lose is if the election is fraudulent.

Have you heard anything like that from Biden?

I didnt say Biden said it.

They is one very vocal poster claiming if Trump wins its fraud.

[sid waddell]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Nothing ironic about. Trump is trying to game the system beforehand by setting up a false narrative about fraud and how the election MUST be called on the night of November 3rd. He has explicitly said that the only way he will lose is if the election is fraudulent.

Have you heard anything like that from Biden?

I didnt say Biden said it.

They is one very vocal poster claiming if Trump wins its fraud.

Trump says that Biden cannot win other than by fraud

Which is obviously bunkum, as he knows full well himself, because the polls show that Biden is miles ahead and has consistently been so since Trump v Biden match ups started being polled

There is no reason at all to think that Trump can "win" by any means other than outright fraud

He can't

[Taylor]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Nothing ironic about. Trump is trying to game the system beforehand by setting up a false narrative about fraud and how the election MUST be called on the night of November 3rd. He has explicitly said that the only way he will lose is if the election is fraudulent.

Have you heard anything like that from Biden?

I didnt say Biden said it.

They is one very vocal poster claiming if Trump wins its fraud.

Trump says that Biden cannot win other than by fraud

Which is obviously bunkum, as he knows full well himself, because the polls show that Biden is miles ahead and has consistently been so since Trump v Biden match ups started being polled

There is no reason at all to think that Trump can "win" by any means other than outright fraud

He can't

Has there been any recent cases of polls being inaccurate?

[sid waddell]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Nothing ironic about. Trump is trying to game the system beforehand by setting up a false narrative about fraud and how the election MUST be called on the night of November 3rd. He has explicitly said that the only way he will lose is if the election is fraudulent.

Have you heard anything like that from Biden?

I didnt say Biden said it.

They is one very vocal poster claiming if Trump wins its fraud.

Trump says that Biden cannot win other than by fraud

Which is obviously bunkum, as he knows full well himself, because the polls show that Biden is miles ahead and has consistently been so since Trump v Biden match ups started being polled

There is no reason at all to think that Trump can "win" by any means other than outright fraud

He can't

Has there been any recent cases of polls being inaccurate?

The national polls were not very inaccurate at all in 2016, they were pretty accurate

See above for why state polls may have appeared to be wildly inaccurate in certain swing states

They almost certainly weren't

I've no doubt polls this time are broadly accurate barring the nonsense of Trafalgar and Rasmussen, I also tend to shave a couple of points off Quinnipiac on the other side

Poll spreads are the most accurate gauge

I would say that by and large, pollsters would this time be making assumptions that favour Trump's poll numbers - based on the official results in 2016 - in a similar manner to how most UK pollsters adjusted towards the Tories in 2017 and missed just how close Labour were to the Tories - though they did all pick up the broad pattern of movement

It could be that the polls are underestimating Biden but even if they are that would likely be cancelled out in the swing states by voter suppression

I expect Biden to win by massive margins in the states where a Democratic victory is inevitable but that that swing will not be reflected in the official results in key swing states because of the voter suppression

Who controls the various Secretary of State positions as well as state Supreme courts now seems crucial

[Taylor]

Ah well there we have it.

If Trump wins its because there was fraud.

If Biden wins its because there was no fraud.

And this is because Biden supporters say so.

 
Priceless

I dearly hope the US elect someone that will get the country back into some sort of stability however it would be hilarious (if it wasnt so serious) to watch the lads here frothing at the mouth if Biden doesnt win.

[J70]

Some talk of Biden being on track to edge Texas.

If (still a big if) he does the game is up for Trump. Adding 38 electoral college votes there surely makes it impossible for a democrat to lose?

Expect Trump to hammer down on Biden's oil comments. Maybe those with their heads in the Texan sand might find more oil when they are down there

Can't see it with Texas.

538 have Pennsylvania as one in three chance of being the decisive state. That could mean we're all sitting waiting for a few days as PA counts the mail-in ballots and Trump scream bloody murder about supposed fraud while he claims victory.

They have Wisconsin and Florida each having a 1/8 chance of being the tipping point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ironic considering some anti Trump supporters have said he can only win by fraud.

So it looks like no matter which side wins the other will claim fraud 

Nothing ironic about. Trump is trying to game the system beforehand by setting up a false narrative about fraud and how the election MUST be called on the night of November 3rd. He has explicitly said that the only way he will lose is if the election is fraudulent.

Have you heard anything like that from Biden?

I didnt say Biden said it.

They is one very vocal poster claiming if Trump wins its fraud.

So you've gone from "one side" to a single poster?

[sid waddell]

Ah well there we have it.

If Trump wins its because there was fraud.

If Biden wins its because there was no fraud.

And this is because Biden supporters say so.

 
Priceless

I dearly hope the US elect someone that will get the country back into some sort of stability however it would be hilarious (if it wasnt so serious) to watch the lads here frothing at the mouth if Biden doesnt win.

Anybody who is looking with the situation with any degree of honesty will come to the same conclusion - that Trump cannot win without fraud

Indeed it's the conclusion the Republicans themselves, Trump included, came to a long time ago which is why they invest so much into voter suppression

Trump says Republicans would 'never' be elected again if it was easier to vote

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/30/trump-republican-party-voting-reform-coronavirus

I think it says a lot about somebody if they think it's "hilarious" that a regime which runs on pure hatred against racial and ethnic minorities, women, and gender or sexual minorities as its core defining principle, might retain power through fraud

It also absolutely bears out what I say about sadism being an integral part of Trumpism

He brings out the very worst aspects of humanity in his supporters and sympathisers, as is demonstrated on this forum

[RedHand88]

Donald Trump can win without fraud.

Joe Biden can win without fraud.

The polls tell us this, Trump has about a 15% chance of winning. Can people please stop saying X can't win without fraud.

[sid waddell]

Donald Trump can win without fraud.

Joe Biden can win without fraud.

The polls tell us this, Trump has about a 15% chance of winning. Can people please stop saying X can't win without fraud.

I suppose Trump can win without fraud in the same way that Leitrim can win the All-Ireland this year

Even Trump knows that himself

Trump has not even campaigned for the votes of anybody outside his base, he has run the worst "campaign" of any politician I have ever seen, and his base is way too small to win

His sole reason for campaigning is to whip them into a frenzy so they come out and cause chaos from the night of November 3rd onwards

That chaos is what Trump is relying on so mail in votes never get counted

There's a reason why Trump is demanding the election is called on the night of the 3rd

It's because he can't win if all the votes are counted

And everybody knows this, most of all Trump

[Milltown Row2]

6/4 is a decent price for Trump..

[sid waddell]

6/4 is a decent price for Trump..

Roy Cohn had a saying: "I don't want to know what the law is. I want to know who the judge is."

There's a reason Cyprus always give douze points to Greece in the Eurovision