Scottish independence referendum thread

[armaghniac]

The YouGov poll, for The Times Scotland, found 53%, excluding "don't knows" , would vote for independence.
That's the fourth poll in a row showing yes higher than no and from all the polling majors.
And whatever about the absolute numbers all are moving in the same direction.

[Franko]

The Scot's problem is that any IndyRef is only possible at the gift of Westminster ... the likelihood that a second referendum would result in a majority for Independence, means that it is far less likely to be 'granted' to Scotland.  Short of landing a million+ Scots at the gates of Westminster, I can't see what would prompt an English parliament to give a second referendum.

The Pandemic has again magnified the stupidity of the Union, not just for the Scots, but for the north as well.  The sooner the 'precious' Union is no more, the better for all concerned, including the English.

I'm not sure the hundreds of thousands of Scots who received significant financial support from Westminster would agree.  Would an independent Scotland be able to offer the same level of support if a similar pandamic arises a few years down the line?

Aye, the Scots should be thankful for Boris and all they get. Scots don't pay tax or contribute to the Westminster pot? What a stupid statement.

Not what I am saying at all.  Just saying that there are advantages to being part of the 6th largest economy in the world during times of crisis such as the ongoing pandemic.

Scottish people received financial support because they are still part of the UK and still pay their dues (in fact many reports suggest Scotland contributes more than it receives back), just like the Welsh. They received what they were entitled to, no more or no less than anyone else in the UK. So why should that equate to Scots suddenly thinking that independence isn't worth pursuing anymore? In fact for the shambolic job the present Tory government has made of pandemic management and how they are going to shaft who they have to with Brexit negotiations, including the northern Irish, there is even more reason to want away as recent polls suggest. The union is done and thank f**k for that.

As there is no guarantee that an independent Scotland will be as well off economically and Scots are seeing first hand the safety net that the Union provides.  I would imagine that the same thought has occurred to a few folk in NI too.

What safety net would this be?  The same one which has allowed the Scots to be part of the 'country' with one of the worst records IN THE WORLD covid-wise?  If that's what unionists are clinging to to support their argument, they really are fcuked.

I'd usually not indulge in fantasy, but at this stage I would be fairly confident that Brexit and BoJo are going to be the catalyst which heralds the end of the union.

[armaghniac]

I'd usually not indulge in fantasy, but at this stage I would be fairly confident that Brexit and BoJo are going to be the catalyst which heralds the end of the union.

You might be right the most recent poll by Ipsos Mori is 55 per cent back separation, with 39 per cent for staying and only 6 per cent don't know. 
The don't knows seem to be drifting into the indy camp and the number is increasing with each poll.

[Rossfan]

Excellent news.

[armaghniac]

There is a definite trend, but it would need to carry on for a bit longer.

[Jeepers Creepers]

It's easy saying yes on a questionnaire but when it comes to putting an 'X'.

[Jell 0 Biafra]

Yes, but the fear of putting the x the last time was largely through being told they wouldn't be able to continue on as part of the EU.

[smelmoth]

I wouldn't dismiss the polls but I would temper some of the excitement.

The political campaign for independence is organised and funded 24/7. It is largely coalesced in a single party. So the case for independence is always being made.

The "remain" side is the opposite. It rallies (and overcomes its other differences) for a referendum. The Leave poll lead needs to be sustained and significant as you would expect it to be chipped away to some extent in a referendum campaign.

Also the remain side know what they have to do when a referendum is called. Last time out SNP couldn't name the currency that an independent Scotland would have. They still can't. It was considered likely that it would have to be the Euro but the idea of adopting the euro didn't play as well as eu membership.

UK has its economic difficulties and I'm not minimising them but so does Scottish nationalism. Last time out SNP promised a national reserve based on an estimated oil price. Coincidentally (absolutely nothing to do with Scotland) oil prices collapsed in the days after the last referendum and never recovered. Not only can the next referendum strategy for SNP not rely on the magic money tree of oil but a Remain campaign can use the previous campaign promises to embarrass the SNP ie look at what would have happen if the SNP promises had been believed before???

SNP will need a whole new economic argument. Whatever it is they will be asked if is so good why did they not use it the last time??

This won't be simple.

And there is Brexit. SNP rightly make good political capital out of the nationalism of brexiteers, their simplistic promises, bold promises and the real difficulty of negotiating the hard detail. An independent Scotland (outside but looking to join the EU) will have hellish difficulty negotiating what is going to happen on the English/Scottish border. Brexit is not a one way street for SNP.

[Chief]

I wouldn't dismiss the polls but I would temper some of the excitement.

The political campaign for independence is organised and funded 24/7. It is largely coalesced in a single party. So the case for independence is always being made.

The "remain" side is the opposite. It rallies (and overcomes its other differences) for a referendum. The Leave poll lead needs to be sustained and significant as you would expect it to be chipped away to some extent in a referendum campaign.

Also the remain side know what they have to do when a referendum is called. Last time out SNP couldn't name the currency that an independent Scotland would have. They still can't. It was considered likely that it would have to be the Euro but the idea of adopting the euro didn't play as well as eu membership.

UK has its economic difficulties and I'm not minimising them but so does Scottish nationalism. Last time out SNP promised a national reserve based on an estimated oil price. Coincidentally (absolutely nothing to do with Scotland) oil prices collapsed in the days after the last referendum and never recovered. Not only can the next referendum strategy for SNP not rely on the magic money tree of oil but a Remain campaign can use the previous campaign promises to embarrass the SNP ie look at what would have happen if the SNP promises had been believed before???

SNP will need a whole new economic argument. Whatever it is they will be asked if is so good why did they not use it the last time??

This won't be simple.

And there is Brexit. SNP rightly make good political capital out of the nationalism of brexiteers, their simplistic promises, bold promises and the real difficulty of negotiating the hard detail. An independent Scotland (outside but looking to join the EU) will have hellish difficulty negotiating what is going to happen on the English/Scottish border. Brexit is not a one way street for SNP.

Surely if the SNP want to frame these issues in a Brexit light, then they peg a new Scottish currency (e.g. Scottish pound) to the Euro and mirror England's border arrangements with the EU?

That way they minimise the friction to rejoining the EU.

Be hard for Boris to claim England can make a success of those border arrangements but Scotland couldn't.

[armaghniac]

Surely if the SNP want to frame these issues in a Brexit light, then they peg a new Scottish currency (e.g. Scottish pound) to the Euro and mirror England's border arrangements with the EU?

That way they minimise the friction to rejoining the EU.

Be hard for Boris to claim England can make a success of those border arrangements but Scotland couldn't.

I'm sure that Scotland would benefit from independence in the longer term, but they have a huge problem in the short term. It is easy to say that they should mirror England's border arrangements with the EU, yet these are a cause of concern in the ROI with 7% of trade going to England, Scotland has  8 times that. Many believe that trade will reduce with these arrangements and that could cause huge damage in Scotland. Perhaps Scotland's best time will come in a couple of years when England realises that blocking trade with the EU is stupid.

[smelmoth]

I wouldn't dismiss the polls but I would temper some of the excitement.

The political campaign for independence is organised and funded 24/7. It is largely coalesced in a single party. So the case for independence is always being made.

The "remain" side is the opposite. It rallies (and overcomes its other differences) for a referendum. The Leave poll lead needs to be sustained and significant as you would expect it to be chipped away to some extent in a referendum campaign.

Also the remain side know what they have to do when a referendum is called. Last time out SNP couldn't name the currency that an independent Scotland would have. They still can't. It was considered likely that it would have to be the Euro but the idea of adopting the euro didn't play as well as eu membership.

UK has its economic difficulties and I'm not minimising them but so does Scottish nationalism. Last time out SNP promised a national reserve based on an estimated oil price. Coincidentally (absolutely nothing to do with Scotland) oil prices collapsed in the days after the last referendum and never recovered. Not only can the next referendum strategy for SNP not rely on the magic money tree of oil but a Remain campaign can use the previous campaign promises to embarrass the SNP ie look at what would have happen if the SNP promises had been believed before???

SNP will need a whole new economic argument. Whatever it is they will be asked if is so good why did they not use it the last time??

This won't be simple.

And there is Brexit. SNP rightly make good political capital out of the nationalism of brexiteers, their simplistic promises, bold promises and the real difficulty of negotiating the hard detail. An independent Scotland (outside but looking to join the EU) will have hellish difficulty negotiating what is going to happen on the English/Scottish border. Brexit is not a one way street for SNP.

Surely if the SNP want to frame these issues in a Brexit light, then they peg a new Scottish currency (e.g. Scottish pound) to the Euro and mirror England's border arrangements with the EU?

That way they minimise the friction to rejoining the EU.

Be hard for Boris to claim England can make a success of those border arrangements but Scotland couldn't.

Pegging a currency is no small matter especially in today's world. Bank of England didn't have the resources to do it on Black Wednesday. Given that the central bank of Scotland would be starting from scratch it would be a challenge and would that the market vultures would circle around.

There are no English border arrangements with the EU. There are temporary UK measures. The difficulties of converting temporary to enduring. The UK measures include the land border with ROI. The volumes between Scotland and England are massive relative to that. Also the importance of the wider UK is much more important to Scotland than it is to RoI.

Brexit helps SNP as it increases Scottish alienation with London but it creates massive issues for them in that it magnifies rather than answers the questions they couldn't answer the last time.

Brexit makes people ask for the detail before a referendum. SNP don't currently have the answers

[Rossfan]

Hopefully the Scots will have their next Referendum asap and hopefully will vote for Independence for their Country which is the normal situation for Countries.
They wont become Ibdependent 5 minutes after the last vote us counted.
There will be a "divorce" settlement/transition period when loads of things will have to be worked out like the setting up of the Saorstát in the 1920s, Maltese and Cypriot Independence or the divorce between Czechs and Slovaks.
While the SNP have been the main advocates of Independence/normality more impatient elements have arisen since Brexit and Bozo who are fed up of their Country bring treated as another Shire of England.

[Franko]

Hopefully the Scits will have their next Referendum asap and hopefully will vote for Independence for their Country which is the normal situation for Countries.
They wont become Ibdependent 5 minutes after the last vote us counted.
There will be a "divorce" settlement/transition period when loads of things will have to be worked out like the setting up of the Saorstát in the 1920s, Maltese and Cypriot Independence or the divorce between Czechs and Slovaks.
While the SNP have been the main advocates of Independence/normality more impatient elements have arisen since Brexit and Bozo who are fed up of their Country bring treated as another Shire of England.

Big fan of the Scots becoming independent but the deal needs to be thrashed out before they sign.  Brexit has taught us that.

The Scots that vote yes need to know exactly what they are voting for.

[smelmoth]

Nail on head there Franko.

The debate hasn't really started. There is an ongoing one sided debate. That is not a complaint it's just the way things are.

But Brexit has created the route map for say Labour and LibDems in Scotland (less so the Tories). They can point out that the questions have to be answered before the referendum. It difficult to see where the credible answers are going from. The starting gun hasn't fired on this one but I would suggest that Brexit would need to fade in the mind before SNP risked a referendum

[Rossfan]

All SNP/Holyrood can do is put out their proposals what an Independent Scotland would look like, currency etc.
However Westminster will hardly do any deal till the vote is held and Independence wins.