Scottish independence referendum thread

[Ulick]

Yes campaigners on Twitter, particularly the socialists and greens, are very confident. Could be bluff and bluster but is odd not to show any doubt.

[muppet]

Think the No vote will win narrowly but Jesus, Mary & Joseph I would love to see the reaction if Yes prevails.

89% here agree with you! 

[Ulick]

Salmond giving some speech live on BBC and Sky News at the moment.

[Zip Code]

Salmond giving some speech live on BBC and Sky News at the moment.

Salmond is a tool of tools but like Kenny said - I will love it if we beat them! Love it!

[Minder]

Salmond giving some speech live on BBC and Sky News at the moment.

Salmond is a tool of tools but like Kenny said - I will love it if we beat them! Love it!

Kenny Keegan ?

[Windmill abu]

I work with a staunch unionist, he is an absolute gentleman and has no problem discussing politics when the topic arises, without taking a  siege mentality position. I asked him today if the referendum went in favour of the yes vote, would he in the future align himself with the Scottish or English side of the split.

He said that he hoped that the vote would be no. But if it went the other way, then a lot of his ancestors came from Scotland and he would associate himself with them more than the English.

If his point of view was replicated across mainstream unionism, this would seriously weaken the GB & NI Union which currently exists.

[T Fearon]

Does anyone think if there was a referendum in the six counties,Cameron,Clegg,Miliband et al would be over pleading for a No vote?

[seafoid]

I think whatever happens politics in TAFKA the UK will never be the same again. Big issues for Ulster Unionism coming down the tracks. New situation.

Cameron misjudged the mood when he defined the terms of the vote as well. There have been some very interesting insights during the last few week 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/aa365d5e-38e5-11e4-a53b-00144feabdc0.html

The charge sheet against Mr Cameron includes his decision that only "full independence" should be placed on the ballot paper, rather than an additional "devo max" option, and giving the vote to schoolchildren but not to Scots living beyond the country's borders.
Lord Lester, a Liberal Democrat peer and barrister who was special adviser on constitutional reform to Gordon Brown when he was prime minister, said: "It was Cameron's failure to allow that second question [on the ballot] – and Labour's to press for it – that has led to this situation. There is only one question and it is not the right question – and it is an extremely dangerous question. If answered Yes, it is going to lead to the weakening of Scotland and the UK."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/01079330-377b-11e4-bd0a-00144feabdc0.html
"Everybody has been focusing on geopolitics, with issues in the Ukraine and the Middle East . . . but this is the one thing they were not looking at," said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock, the largest global fund manager.
"Up until now this was not on the radar of many investors, certainly not in the US, and if it was people assumed this vote would not pass. If the Yes vote passes, then investors would have to accept a prolonged period of uncertainty for UK assets, from the currency to gilts to equities."


http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/df8e3328-34df-11e4-ba5d-00144feabdc0.html

The UK is not an immutable fact of nature; it is a human design that can be undesigned when the circumstances that gave rise to it no longer obtain. The break-up of the union would be sad and a practical ordeal that would suck up years of work in both Westminster and Holyrood. But it would not be an aberration. Historical forces make it explicable.
The coward's way out is to avoid dwelling on the underlying trends that have chipped away at the union for half a century, and to blame a few campaign chiefs instead. This is a lousy way of understanding what is happening in Scotland, and an even worse way of preparing for political movements to come.
Trends point to the rise of English nationalism – already here in the disguised form of the UK Independence party – and demands by London for more autonomy. Our obsession with the particular and the personal will blind us to these forces until they strike us in the face.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2014/sep/10/scotland-referendum-britain-independence-vote
Regardless of the referendum outcome, the campaign has proved a catastrophic failure for Labour. It is no longer an effective vehicle for democracy and social justice in one of its oldest heartlands. Its vote has collapsed. The word most commonly used in conjunction with Labour is 'corrupt'.
As an Atlantic archipelago of islands on the edge of Europe, we have far more in common with each other than not, and do not necessarily need a political union to make that a reality. What we will need is new institutions of collaboration across the nations and regions of the isles.
It's a dramatic redrafting of the story of Britain. In recent decades, it has been self-evident that the Britain of empire and monarchy, of army and church, is history. Britishness has historically been seen as an export, more about how to project ourselves on to the world than how we want to live together. Attempts to revitalise Britishness by claiming human values, such as fair play, rang hollow. The Better Together campaign has been dogged with the absence of any emotionally resonant vision of Britain to articulate as a defence of union.
This idea of Britain is already lost regardless of 18 September's verdict. That much is commonplace. The point, then, is what you do about it. England will have to find its way to a new relationship, one among equals with the other nations that share these British islands.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-effing-tories-pariah-devolution
The deeper source of decline was when the Tory party role as a Protestant party of the Union and Empire waned in the early 1960s. It steadily lost the skilled Protestant working class, as Britishness and sectarianism lost their appeal, while its Clydeside industrial class leaders were replaced by anglicised lairds and aristocrats. As the Scottish middle classes abandoned the cities, Labour consolidated its hold on urban Scotland while retaining the loyalty of the Catholic working class.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/11/not-just-scotland-politics-as-usual-finished-falkirk-clacton-disaffected
In the broadcast media in particular, there is an implied assumption that "the Scotland moment" is something confined to that country. But the reality across the UK suggests something much deeper and wider, and a simple enough fact: that what is happening north of the border is the most spectacular manifestation of a phenomenon taking root all over – indeed, if the splintering of politics and the rise of new forces on both left and right across Europe are anything to go by, a set of developments not defined by specific national circumstances, but profound social and economic ruptures.  ....in such diverse places as Clacton-on-Sea, the Rhondda valley and the central Scottish industrial belt, I have recently heard exactly the same stuff: anguished talk of insecurity, the decline of people's towns (a massively overlooked aspect of the public mood), their fears for their children's futures, and the sense that cosseted politicians know nothing of their lives, nor ever will. Younger people tend to this last point as the natural state of things and either talk about the new alternatives, or admit to no interest in politics at all; older people voice their feelings with a profound sense of betrayal.

[Zip Code]

Does anyone think if there was a referendum in the six counties,Cameron,Clegg,Miliband et al would be over pleading for a No vote?

Why would you care - sure the Vatican rules you.

[ONeill]

Prediction:

No 55
Yes 45

[rrhf]

I think the yes vote will fall slightly leaving a 60 40 or stronger split. An honourable defeat is the outcome.
Salmond to end up as a peer.

[Farrandeelin]

So Scotland to get all these 'extra powers' - even though I wouldn't hold my breath, and to become more independent anyway if they vote no??

[Aaron Boone]

I predict a draw 50:50, UK to remain intact.

[WT4E]

Just tuned in to some news on this:

I was amazed by the two differing speeches brown was scaremongering and desperate; salmon appeared calm and reassured! Think could have an effect on fence sitters!

As I heard recently : why would anyone not want to govern themselves?

[Main Street]

Molly Bloom says yes.