The Big Bailout of the Eurozone (Another crisis coming? - Seriously)

Started by muppet, September 28, 2008, 11:36:36 PM

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muppet

http://politico.ie/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8189&Itemid=882&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Politicoie+%28Latest+from+Politico.ie%29

Vincent Browne talking about the deal that just won't go away, The Maple 10.

The most pertinent points are:

Drumm said: "The Financial Regulator and the Central Bank were in every meeting with me and other directors of the bank throughout 2008."

Referring to that transaction, he said: "That was the solution to a problem, which went to the very destruction of the Irish financial system and hence the government, and through its offices, through the Central Bank and through the regulator, they were pushing the bank like hell to fix the problem."


And:

Drumm was asked, who, in addition to the Financial Regulator at the time, knew about what was going on. He replied: "John Hurley was the governor of the Central Bank. I spent a huge amount of time with John. He told me that he was reporting daily to the Minister for Finance [Brian Cowen]."

He elaborated: "They called me day after day after day, to find out how it was going and when we called them up and said we are thinking of doing something with private investors, I then went down and sat with them and explained what we were going to do. 'Let's get this done.' Frankly they were thrilled, chirpy, because the fear factor [of a financial collapse] was just huge."


If the above were true it would mean that the Irish government approved the manipulation and deception of the markets. Just like Greece.
MWWSI 2017

supersarsfields

Ummmm lending money to prop up share prices.

Rings a bell.

In all honestly Muppet as I know you keep a close look at this and the bail out in general what would be your gut feeling about this? ( I know my interest is mostly on the SQ aspect but leaving that to an aside).
Do you believe Drumm regarding the fact that the gov not only knew about the deal but were actively involved in it and therefore involved in the deception of the markets? Or would you believe that Drumm is just trying to limit his liability?

Just out of interest as I know there is alot of information and misinformation flying around regarding this so would be interested to hear which side you believe is more likely? Obviously no one can say for definite at this stage so just your gut instinst?

Denn Forever

For those who don't know (me), who is this Drumm guy?  Double jobing in the HSE?
I have more respect for a man
that says what he means and
means what he says...

muppet

Quote from: supersarsfields on January 09, 2012, 01:36:05 PM
Ummmm lending money to prop up share prices.

Rings a bell.

In all honestly Muppet as I know you keep a close look at this and the bail out in general what would be your gut feeling about this? ( I know my interest is mostly on the SQ aspect but leaving that to an aside).
Do you believe Drumm regarding the fact that the gov not only knew about the deal but were actively involved in it and therefore involved in the deception of the markets? Or would you believe that Drumm is just trying to limit his liability?

Just out of interest as I know there is alot of information and misinformation flying around regarding this so would be interested to hear which side you believe is more likely? Obviously no one can say for definite at this stage so just your gut instinst?

1) David Drumm formerly of Anglo (not Professor Drumm of the HSE) is not the only person saying this type of thing, there are others such as Denis Casey formerly of IL&P who has sworn under oath that the regulator knew of the €7bn loans from IL&P to Anglo.
2) There is no way any bank on the planet post-Lehmans would have lent €7bn to Anglo-Irish bank without some very important people either pressurizing them to do so, or guaranteeing the money in some way. It could easily be argued that this was another deception of the markets and either IL&P were incredibly reckless in doing so, or a higher power gave the nod.
3) There is obviously a reason why Drumm, Fitzpatrick and co are not in jail. My guess is that they would bring some very important people with them. Cowen & Lenihan were dispensable as we have seen. Kenny and in particular the abrasive Noonan appear to be unable to do anything about it which suggest the real power is elsewhere, probably in the Department of Finance. Remember Kevin Cardiff was in the Department throughout the crisis, Cowen & FF were dispensable but it appears Cardiff wasn't.
MWWSI 2017

whiskeysteve

Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol
Somewhere, somehow, someone's going to pay: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPhISgw3I2w

seafoid

Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol

Jeff Madrick on Ireland

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/

"And then there is Ireland. The recent experience of this once booming country should be deeply embarrassing to those who advocate austerity economics. For six months early last year, its national income started growing again after a couple of years of dramatic collapse following its own financial crisis. Ireland guaranteed all the debt of its over-aggressive failing banks to appease investors and then paid for it by cutting social spending sharply. Ireland's leaders said with almost religious authority that this painful self-discipline was necessary to right the economy, and officials in Ireland and across Europe hailed the country's brief rebound in 2011 as proof that it works. But then the Irish economy plunged in the third quarter of 2011 at its fastest rate ever. The upturn in the economy proved only temporary under the restraints of austerity economics. It may yet need another bailout. "

"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU


seafoid

Quote from: muppet on January 09, 2012, 04:07:51 PM
This shows how the ECB operates: http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/
I am surpised there is a letter. Dick Cheney never wrote anything down and Trichet had a touch of the Cheney. 
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Declan


supersarsfields

Quote from: muppet on January 09, 2012, 01:51:31 PM
Quote from: supersarsfields on January 09, 2012, 01:36:05 PM
Ummmm lending money to prop up share prices.

Rings a bell.

In all honestly Muppet as I know you keep a close look at this and the bail out in general what would be your gut feeling about this? ( I know my interest is mostly on the SQ aspect but leaving that to an aside).
Do you believe Drumm regarding the fact that the gov not only knew about the deal but were actively involved in it and therefore involved in the deception of the markets? Or would you believe that Drumm is just trying to limit his liability?

Just out of interest as I know there is alot of information and misinformation flying around regarding this so would be interested to hear which side you believe is more likely? Obviously no one can say for definite at this stage so just your gut instinst?

1) David Drumm formerly of Anglo (not Professor Drumm of the HSE) is not the only person saying this type of thing, there are others such as Denis Casey formerly of IL&P who has sworn under oath that the regulator knew of the €7bn loans from IL&P to Anglo.
2) There is no way any bank on the planet post-Lehmans would have lent €7bn to Anglo-Irish bank without some very important people either pressurizing them to do so, or guaranteeing the money in some way. It could easily be argued that this was another deception of the markets and either IL&P were incredibly reckless in doing so, or a higher power gave the nod.
3) There is obviously a reason why Drumm, Fitzpatrick and co are not in jail. My guess is that they would bring some very important people with them. Cowen & Lenihan were dispensable as we have seen. Kenny and in particular the abrasive Noonan appear to be unable to do anything about it which suggest the real power is elsewhere, probably in the Department of Finance. Remember Kevin Cardiff was in the Department throughout the crisis, Cowen & FF were dispensable but it appears Cardiff wasn't.

The last point is one that is worrying the Quinn camp and a major reason why they are looking for the court cases to be held outside Ireland. they are of the belief that they won't get justice in Ireland as the Government and the regulator were too involved in the process the whole way through to allow a decision against them. Whether that is correct or not is another matter.

Orangemac

Quote from: seafoid on January 09, 2012, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol

Jeff Madrick on Ireland

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/

"And then there is Ireland. The recent experience of this once booming country should be deeply embarrassing to those who advocate austerity economics. For six months early last year, its national income started growing again after a couple of years of dramatic collapse following its own financial crisis. Ireland guaranteed all the debt of its over-aggressive failing banks to appease investors and then paid for it by cutting social spending sharply. Ireland's leaders said with almost religious authority that this painful self-discipline was necessary to right the economy, and officials in Ireland and across Europe hailed the country's brief rebound in 2011 as proof that it works. But then the Irish economy plunged in the third quarter of 2011 at its fastest rate ever. The upturn in the economy proved only temporary under the restraints of austerity economics. It may yet need another bailout. "
Could soon be time for the Morgan Kelly nuclear option? Cut everything that we can live within our means and tell bondholders to take a hike. Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

armaghniac

The problem with cutting everything is that your tax collection then drops and you have to cut more so that the new equilibrium is quite a bit lower and everyone tries to make the cuts fall on someone else.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

Quote from: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
Quote from: seafoid on January 09, 2012, 03:49:31 PM
Quote from: whiskeysteve on January 09, 2012, 03:03:58 PM
Chief economist of Citigroup to tell RTE that Ireland requires a 2nd bailout according to Bryan Dobson on the tweet machine.

'@bryansixone: Chief economist of Citi tells RTE News that Ireland will need a 2nd bailout. More from David Murphy on 6-1 New'

Back to the markets by 2013 lol

Jeff Madrick on Ireland

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2012/jan/06/europe-cutting-hope/

"And then there is Ireland. The recent experience of this once booming country should be deeply embarrassing to those who advocate austerity economics. For six months early last year, its national income started growing again after a couple of years of dramatic collapse following its own financial crisis. Ireland guaranteed all the debt of its over-aggressive failing banks to appease investors and then paid for it by cutting social spending sharply. Ireland's leaders said with almost religious authority that this painful self-discipline was necessary to right the economy, and officials in Ireland and across Europe hailed the country's brief rebound in 2011 as proof that it works. But then the Irish economy plunged in the third quarter of 2011 at its fastest rate ever. The upturn in the economy proved only temporary under the restraints of austerity economics. It may yet need another bailout. "
Could soon be time for the Morgan Kelly nuclear option? Cut everything that we can live within our means and tell bondholders to take a hike. Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

The ECB has lent 150bn to the banks. If you wanted to shaft the bondholders it would be difficult now because the ECB is keeping the banking system going and holds an awful lot of bonds. It is a real mess.   
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

LeoMc

Quote from: muppet on December 20, 2011, 07:05:07 PM
There seem to be rumours of a new currency being formed between the UK and Ireland. The new currency will be basically a merger of Sterling and the old Punt. It will be called the Stunt. There will be 100 pants in a Stunt. Citizens in both countries will be encouraged to put all their pants in the banks to improve stability and to increase the number of stunts available to the banks. Both countries are pinning their hopes on the Stunt and hope that it will restore confidence.

If the Stunt proves a success there are plans to merge both countries. The new country will be called Iruk. Britain will join the new entity on the condition that they do not participate in any way. Ireland will join on the condition that it is frequently praised for being a good Iruker, even if it bankrupts the place.

Not too sure about the name. The US will invade to get control of the IrUKi gas fields give us democracy.

Rossfan

Quote from: Orangemac on January 10, 2012, 10:57:05 PM
? Surely if Ireland got the deficit down to around 5/6 ibillion they could borrow from the IMF?

We will owe €200 Bn by then and the 5-6Bn will be interest on those borrowings.
Maybe the Govt should get rid of all the bloody acedemics and Economists from the Public payroll for a start.....
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM