Maddie McCann

[Mentalman]

Now I'm no expert on DNA or statistics but it's interesting that now a 99% DNA match is a full match...what then does that make a 100% match??  The BBC are reporting this morning that the police are playing down the significance of the DNA evidence...Sky News playing it up

DNA is statictically only ever 99.999% reliable for matching, there is always the slight possibility that the DNA profile matches someone else by mere chance. The likelihood of this happening is usually well below 0.001% (1 in 100,000), but it depends on the race of the person involved.

Yes but if you take two DNA samples from the same person surely that's a 100% metch??  I thought the chances of two people having the exact same DNA profile was somewhere in the region of 1 in a billion

Alright, they take a sample of my DNA. Sometime later I disappear. They suspect my friend. On testing the boot of my friends car they find humman DNA, which they match to mine. Statisically it's a 99.999% match, there is a chance that there is someone else out there, with my DNA, who has been in the boot. In practical terms it's a 100% match, given the circumstances.

It's not 1 in 1 billion, it depends on race group etc. I seem to remember during the OJ Simpson case Cochrane, in the face of incontrovertable DNA evidence, came out with the statistic that their were something like the possibility of 8 other individuals with matching DNA in the same city area on the night of the murder....of course no one has ever found them it's just a statisical probability of chance...or the degradation of some of the samples meant it could have been his son....

The reason for an 80% match could be manifold, nearly all down to the sample being exposed for a prolonged period, especially fluids.

[Hound]

I'd say a lot of Maddie posters have come down over the last few days.

[full back]

If the parents arent guilty, which is entirely possible, they are bound to be tearing their hair out right now.
Not only are they getting blamed for it, but there seems to be little or no focus on the little girl now.
I have not heard anything about the search for her in over a week now

[Star Spangler]

The police believe she is dead and they must have a fairly solid reason.  Obviously the public will only ever hear about 5% of what the police know before it goes to court.

[maxpower]

Is it conceivable that the little girl was abducted, the police have exhausted all resources and plausible avenues for her safe return and that after 100+ days missing have accepted the likelihood of her safe return is very small, therefore its damage limitation for the country who has lost millions in tourism and would continue to do so if the dissapearance remained unsolved and suspected to be like to paedophiles.

Political pressure is used by the portugese to demonise the McCann's, find them guilty or at the very least deflect public opinion onto them and not the region.  force the 'English Disease' back across the water and brush the whole nasty incident under the carpet.

As i'm sure you can tell i'm not convinced the McCann are guilty, well of neglect yes but murder/accidential death i don't think so and i hope not.  i have felt for a few weeks now that for finaincial reasons this needed to be brought to a head before next years holidays are being booked.  Not normally a conspiracy theorist but the stories coming from portugal are every bit as confusing as the stories coming from the McCanns

[AZOffaly]

I hope, for the twins sake, that this has not been one long cynical cover up by the parents, and that they had nothing to do with it, other than being very naive/neglectful on the night in question.

However, one thing is rapidly turning me off and that is the constant sniping that the Police are totally incompetent. The constant little Englander stuff about the Portugese police is very colonial and borderline racist. They castigate them in a 'how dare those incompetent foreigners dare accuse our Kate and Gerry' way, belittle the evidence and generally all but call the police liars.

How they can do this when they don't know what the police case is built on is a little revolting in my opinion, and while I genuinely hope the McCann's are innocent, I am more likely to believe that the police force must have at least some strong suspicions based on more than some sort of vendetta against the McCanns.

[Croí na hÉireann]

The fact they are concentrating their efforts on defending their name at the moment rather than keeping the focus on their missing daughter doesn't sit well with me. It wouldn't matter two fucks to me what someone did or didn't accuse me of if someone close to me was missing, you can always chase after them later.

[Bensars]

Report on sky.com


Bodily fluids - not blood - matching Madeleine McCann's DNA have been found in the car hired by her parents, according to sources.

Enduring a tense waitThe sample was taken from the boot, where the spare tyre is kept.

It had an 88% match with the missing four-year-old's DNA, sources said.

Police searching the car also found so much of Madeleine's hair that it could not have been transferred from a blanket or clothes.

It must have come directly from her body, sources said.

The news comes as Portuguese prosecutors received all of the files of evidence on the McCanns from police investigating the four-year-old's disappearance.

[Balboa]

I was half in jest talking about Max Clifford getting the call until saw this on Times Online today............


"The McCanns have engaged Angus McBride from the same firm, who is known for high-profile work where reputations need protecting.

Mr McBride, who specialises in all kinds of criminal defence work, has also developed a particular expertise in handling the media and managing and protecting the reputation of people and companies subject to media or criminal investigation."

[rory]

It had an 88% match with the missing four-year-old's DNA, sources said.

Chimps DNA is 95% similar to humans.  If the DNA in the boot matched Maddie's to 88% I would say that the fluids are probably from a mamall, could even be a primate.....

[Mentalman]

I was half in jest talking about Max Clifford getting the call until saw this on Times Online today............


"The McCanns have engaged Angus McBride from the same firm, who is known for high-profile work where reputations need protecting.

Mr McBride, who specialises in all kinds of criminal defence work, has also developed a particular expertise in handling the media and managing and protecting the reputation of people and companies subject to media or criminal investigation."

Clifford was on Tubridy this morning, the McCann's, or should I say Kate, contacted him at the start, within days of the child's disappearance. Clifford believes the PR people of the holiday firm the McCann's had the apartment leased through are handling their PR.

Chimps DNA is 95% similar to humans.  If the DNA in the boot matched Maddie's to 88% I would say that the fluids are probably from a mamall, could even be a primate.....

Just as an aside, that statistic is out of date now, latest research puts it far lower. In any case it referes to genetic structure etc.

[Bogball XV]

Report on sky.com

My God, it's true then   I really don't know much about this whole story, but, I wouldn't believe any leaks or other bullshit at this stage - better not to bother speculating and just wait for what the police actually know, other than that I hope the parents are cleared fully or convicted, just as long as it's not left hanging, for the sake of all the McCann family.

[orangeman]

Sadly, whether they were invloved or not and without proving the case against them, there will always be suspicion. It's just a tragic situation all round.

[A Quinn Martin Production]

However, one thing is rapidly turning me off and that is the constant sniping that the Police are totally incompetent. The constant little Englander stuff about the Portugese police is very colonial and borderline racist. They castigate them in a 'how dare those incompetent foreigners dare accuse our Kate and Gerry' way, belittle the evidence and generally all but call the police liars.

Not only that AZOffaly, British sniffer dogs are more competent than Porutguese ones!!

[Billys Boots]

And if they are found guilty, they'll turn into people of Irish decent very quickly.