Stormont Assembly Elections 2017

[macdanger2]

You have to look at equivalences to see how all fared:

DUP 38 (2016) equals 32 (2017) achieved 28 down by 12.5%

SF 28 (2016) equals 23 (2017) achieved 27 up by 17.4%

UUP 16 (2016) equals 13 (2017) achieved 10 down by 23.1%

SDLP 12 (2016) equals 10 (2017) achieved 12 up by 20%

Alliance 8 (2016) equals 7 (2017) achieved 8 up by 14.3%

If the turnout goes back down at the next election, DUP will be the big winners. If foster is gone by then, will the extra 10% that came out this time stay at home?

The change in the balance of power this time is symbolic but I wouldn't be certain that it's permanent. It would be interesting to see the age profile of DUP voters.

[podge]

It will be interesting to see what happens next. 

If Arlene is not gone by early next week, either of her own accord or from within the party, then SF will have a dilemma- are they prepared to go into government with Arlene at the helm.  I think they will lose credibility if they do and personally I cant see them doing so. 

So if negotiations start with Arlene still there and SF stand their ground, Arlene then has a dilemma and I cant see her backing down at SFs behest either

So we could well face a new election if Arlene is still in situ much longer as SF have insisted they won't go in with her, she wont back down at their request and strategically the DUP might think they are almost bound to be able to galvanise a few more voters out this time around given SFs rise and the UUP turmoil.  You can almost hear the rally cry already

A new election could be bad news, especially for the SDLP- they squeezed out 12 seats out of an average showing in my opinion.  It could easily have been 9/10.  Pat Gafney and John Dallat in particular benefited from Unionist transfers it seems.  With SF's rise, I cant see those transfers happening again.  I can also see some more traditional SDLP voters veering to SF in a new election as they might look at and think they are in touching distance and see a transfer as a chance to get them over the line. 

On balance, I can see us back at the polls with an ever more polarised vote next time around.......farcical. 

The common view seems to be that Nesbitt going has put pressure on Arlene.  I think he jumped too quick.  Firstly, it was just plain bad leadership doing it at the time and in the fashion that he did.  Secondly, I think he has actually given Arlene some wriggle room- there will be some calling for Arlene to stay on the basis that Unionism cannot lose 2 leaders in a week.

[T Fearon]

Nothing will be solved.A lot of SDLP seats won on UUP transfers which wont happen again.This election will produce one super unionist party with a totally hardline attitude and on and on this crap will go to the detriment of everyone here

[vallankumous]

Nothing will be solved.A lot of SDLP seats won on UUP transfers which wont happen again.This election will produce one super unionist party with a totally hardline attitude and on and on this crap will go to the detriment of everyone here

What we need is progressive thinkers like you in politics.

[Milltown Row2]

Likely end up, 40 unionists, 39 nationalists and 11 others, probably 28 DUP and 27 SF.

That's sums up NI politics... sectarian head count

Feck everything else that matters

What do you expect when a line was drawn on a map to keep one side of the headcount happy nearly 100 years ago.

I expect local politicians to create jobs, improve health, generate growth, improved education not separate education... build bridges with our neighbors not divide them further... simple things like that, what do you look for from your politicians?

So who did you vote for then?

That's between me and the ballot box

Who did you vote for?

[Applesisapples]

What we really need is a UI and get on with it. The whole situation here is like someone watching an iceberg coming at a boat, just get it over with.

[Windmill abu]

Th fact that there is no longer a Unionist majority in Stormont will, I believe, encourage more nationalist voters to vote the next time.
If Sinn Fein stand their ground against the DUP, a lot of voters who had stopped voting will come back to them.

[T Fearon]

Read this carefully.Britain does not want or regard Northern Unionists as their people.Dublin does not want or regard Northern nationalists as their people.Ulster unionism and Northern nationalism are redundant philosophies therefore

[OgraAnDun]

Read this carefully.Britain does not want or regard Northern Unionists as their people.Dublin does not want or regard Northern nationalists as their people.Ulster unionism and Northern nationalism are redundant philosophies therefore

Recent opinion polls have shown that the south would take the 6C, so that argument doesn't hold much water.

[armaghniac]

Read this carefully.Britain does not want or regard Northern Unionists as their people.Dublin does not want or regard Northern nationalists as their people.Ulster unionism and Northern nationalism are redundant philosophies therefore

No matter how carefully we read it, it is still bollix.

[vallankumous]

Read this carefully.Britain does not want or regard Northern Unionists as their people.Dublin does not want or regard Northern nationalists as their people.Ulster unionism and Northern nationalism are redundant philosophies therefore

That's not the case. northern nationalists and unionists are philosophies in their own right.

[T Fearon]

Yes but what is the point of owing allegiance to states who do not want you or regard you as their people? I'd say the Dublin Govt is shitting itself after this election.

[yellowcard]

Read this carefully.Britain does not want or regard Northern Unionists as their people.Dublin does not want or regard Northern nationalists as their people.Ulster unionism and Northern nationalism are redundant philosophies therefore

And who told you this, facts would suggest otherwise if the conditions are right. Brexit has changed the landscape.

Ordinarily I would think that a period of some form of joint governance would be the preferred option for now, but the problem is that the 2 parties in government in both jurisdictions would be traditionally be seen as the most favourably disposed towards the union. A new Irish government with a greater focus on Irish unity would fight the corner for northern nationalists much better.

[vallankumous]

Yes but what is the point of owing allegiance to states who do not want you or regard you as their people? I'd say the Dublin Govt is shitting itself after this election.

I don't know anyone in the north that owes it's allegiance to the southern state. I don't think nationalism is about that. It's a national identity not a statehood identity. Nobody is saying they want to live in Dundalk. The state is a very separate thing. The Government in the south are of no concern to national identity. They are administrators of the State, not a national figure.
As for Unionism, they are part of the UK. In this case it makes no difference what the rest of the UK think. They have their unique identity within Britain. They do not have allegiance to the UK Government of the day. They have allegiance to the Union as Irish Unionists.

[Applesisapples]

Read this carefully.Britain does not want or regard Northern Unionists as their people.Dublin does not want or regard Northern nationalists as their people.Ulster unionism and Northern nationalism are redundant philosophies therefore

Read this slowly and carefully Tony, the only redundant philosophy articulated on this forum is blind loyalty to a failing religious institution.