Brexit.

[LeoMc]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/mar/15/david-davis-we-havent-assessed-impact-of-leaving-eu-with-no-brexit-deal-video

A 40% tariff on agricultural exports on top of a loss of SFP's will hit a lot of farmers hard.

[seafoid]

Article 50 to be triggered by Brit government next Wednesday 29th March.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gO7uemm6Yo

[Never beat the deeler]

[Rossfan]

Well summed up there.

[seafoid]

   https://www.ft.com/content/9d62cb84-0b2a-11e7-97d1-5e720a26771b

   Sir, Patrick Minford argues that Brexit will make UK manufacturing both more productive and more profitable (FT.com, March 16). This is in contrast to his pre-referendum argument that "we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and high-tech. But this shouldn't scare us."The assertion appears to be that sterling will have significantly depreciated, and so profits of exporters will increase. While there are companies that will undoubtedly gain as a result of this currency depreciation, this assertion ignores one crucial issue. Nearly half of what we export is imported first. Professor Minford and his colleagues point to the recent success of the UK economy, and the extent to which exporters have gained. However, as those exporters restock their warehouses, they discover that much of the price advantage that accrued from the devaluation is eaten up in price increases in imported components.The final issue that Prof Minford and his colleagues fail to capture is any understanding of the nature of supply chains that underpin UK manufacturing, and the extent to which World Trade Organization rules affect those supply chains differently for different products. A high proportion of international trade is intra-company trade. In modern high tech manufacturing many components cross countries several times before they reach the final consumer. This has perhaps been the biggest benefit to manufacturing of the single market. Companies are able to co-ordinate activities across many locations, taking advantage of the benefits offered by different locations, whether it be low wage costs, access to frontier technology or transport links. What we observe as final exports is simply the final stage of this process, which within Europe works relatively seamlessly.

Nigel DriffieldProfessor of International Business,Warwick Business School, UK

[heganboy]

And once again, it's all up in the air.

An EU parliamentary commission believes that Scotland Wales and the North could remain in the EU

15182289.Scotland__could_remain_in_EU_after_Brexit_/

In his report, 'Detoxifying the UK's Exit from the EU', political scientist Brendan O'Leary said there was "merit" in such an approach, but that it would be resisted by Westminster.

It said: "An exponent of constitutional flexibility argues that given the status of these dependencies, separate arrangements can also be made for other parts of the UK when England and Wales leave the EU.

"Northern Ireland and Scotland could remain within the EU, at least pending the resolution of their UK status via a border poll (Northern Ireland) or an independence referendum (Scotland).

"Their current status as parts of the UK union have been altered by the decision to leave the EU - a decision rejected by both countries - and as such it would be unfair to forcibly remove them from another union, i.e. the European one. This view may hold merit but has no traction with the Westminster government."

[Farrandeelin]

Anybody know if tomorrow would weaken the sterling?

[yellowcard]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-39415709

This could hasten the call for a Border poll and certainly strengthens the argument in favour of Irish reunification.

[screenexile]

Anybody know if tomorrow would weaken the sterling?

Talking about it on the other thread (dirua). . . can't see it we already know it's happening and it took a dip when the trigger date was announced so it shouldn't really affect it possibly a small decrease.

[MoChara]

Northern Ireland 'can rejoin EU after Brexit if it votes for reunification'

While Scotland would be forced to join back of the queue, a united Ireland would not need to reapply for membership, says David Davis
   
If Northern Ireland opts for reunification it would have the ability to join the European Union as part of the Republic after Brexit, a leaked ministerial letter has indicated.

Unlike Scotland, which has been told it could be forced to join a queue for membership of the bloc if the country votes for independence, the province would not have to reapply for EU membership, as the Republic is already one of the existing member states.

According to The Times in a leaked letter to an SDLP MP, David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, wrote: "If a majority of the people of Northern Ireland were ever to vote to become part of a united Ireland the UK Government will honour its commitment to enable that to happen."


He added: "In that event, Northern Ireland would be in a position of becoming part of an existing EU member state, rather than seeking to join the EU as a new independent state."

If polls show support for a reunification referendum then the Good Friday Agreement stipulates the UK Government is legally obliged to offer one.

It comes after the power sharing agreement at Stormont collapsed on Monday with James Brokenshire, the Northern Ireland Secretary, saying it was "extremely disappointing".

But he said there was no appetite for another round of devolved assembly elections, adding there was still a narrow wind of  "a short few weeks" in which a government could be formed. In the meantime, the province's civil servants are preparing to take over the budget and allocation of resources to public services.

"We are rapidly approaching the point at which Northern Ireland will not have an agreed budget," he added. "This is not sustainable".


Under the rule of power sharing if the deadlock is not broken and new elections results are inconclusive the UK Government would be expected to take Northern Ireland back under direct rule. But this move would likely require emergency legislation at Westminster and looks unlikely at this stage at least.

Mr Brokenshire is expected to make a further statement in the Commons on Tuesday, outlining details of how the UK Government intends to foster an agreement to save power sharing at Stormont.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-northern-ireland-can-rejoin-eu-reunification-david-davis-stormont-a7653346.html

[Rossfan]

If/when the 6 Cos (and the 26) vote to reunify/amalgamate/come together it will be a matter for the EU to decide if the North can come in.
It won't matter 2 fcuks what the English/English and Welsh/British Government thinks.
An independent Scotland may or may not have to apply but again that would be for the EU to decide.
No doubt the SNP want another Referendum before Scotland is taken out if the EU.

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/29/philllip-hammond-on-leaving-eu-we-cant-have-our-cake-and-eat-it

Hammond also played down the idea that the UK could could crash out of the EU with no deal, which Johnson has said would be "perfectly OK" and May claimed would be better than a bad deal.
"Of course, we have plans for day one after leaving the EU with a huge variety of different outcomes," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. "But we are very clear what we are seeking to do is negotiate a deep and special relationship with the EU.
"I am absolutely confident we will negotiate a deal. I don't think anybody has any doubt about that. The question is about getting the very best possible deal and making sure our PM has the maximum flexibility, the maximum negotiating muscle."
On the issue of paying a divorce bill of up to £50bn, as demanded by some EU officials, Hammond said he thought this was simply a "very aggressive starting line" for the discussions but accepted the UK would have to "settle the rights and obligations we have as a departing member".
The chancellor also insisted he had not been marginalised by the prime minister during the process of drafting the letter, after having been forced into performing a U-turn on a tax rise for the self-employed in his budget.
On Monday night, May pitched the triggering of article 50 as the moment when the British people must finally unite, as people should no longer be defined by whether they voted to leave or remain at the referendum.
"When I sit around the negotiating table in the months ahead, I will represent every person in the whole United Kingdom – young and old, rich and poor, city, town, country and all the villages and hamlets in between. And yes, those EU nationals who have made this country their home," she said.
"It is my fierce determination to get the right deal for every single person in this country. For, as we face the opportunities ahead of us on this momentous journey, our shared values, interests and ambitions can – and must – bring us together."
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Labour said it respected the decision of the British public but vowed to hold the government to account every step of the way.
Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said: "Britain is going to change as a result. The question is how. The Conservatives want to use Brexit to turn our country into a low-wage tax haven. Labour is determined to ensure we can rebuild and transform Britain, so no one and no community is left behind.
"It will be a national failure of historic proportions if the prime minister comes back from Brussels without having secured protection for jobs and living standards."
The action triggering Brexit, which cost David Cameron his job as prime minister and fractured Labour's decades-old electoral coalition, continues to pitch senior political figures against each other as the ferocity of the debate shows no sign of reducing.
Michael Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister, told the Guardian the move represented the "worst peacetime decision taken by any modern postwar government", in contrast to his former cabinet colleague, Michael Howard, who called it the start of an "exciting chapter in the history of the United Kingdom" while acknowledging the road ahead could be bumpy.
Gus O'Donnell, the former head of the civil service, warned of difficult talks ahead, saying it was "like jumping out of a plane flown by EU leaders in a parachute designed by them to discourage others taking the same risk".
Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, issued a separate warning, saying May's strategy would be dangerous to the economy and fail to reduce immigration.
"Theresa May's tactic is clear: to accuse anyone who dares question her headlong, blindfold charge towards hard Brexit of being democracy deniers," he wrote in the Guardian. "This is despite it looking increasingly likely that the result of her reckless, divisive Brexit will be to leave the single market and not reduce immigration – the very opposite of what Brexiteers pitched to the people."

[sid waddell]

Brexit is Brexit, it's red, white and blue
Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, thick Brexit stew
Full English Brexit, it's served with a T
Toast's what the UK is going to be

Brexit with Kippers, you know it's a cod
Served up with a pint and a wink and a nod
When the stakes were so high Farage was everywhere
Now sightings of Nigel are medium rare

Ulster Fry Brexit, and Scotch Eggs-it too
Nexit, Irexit, even Legs-it will do
French Fries are out, Britain's serving up chips
On the shoulders of fools bent on apocalypse

Continental Brexit is top of the menu
The Houses of Parliament today's dining venue
But just what is Brexit, well nobody knows
Though it strongly looks like emperor's brand new clothes

Experts are idiots, so says Mr. Gove
Now they're hated from Carlisle to Brighton and Hove
Knowledge is ridiculed, ignorance bliss
Little England prefers to talk out of its Swiss

Englishmen don't like their cucumbers straight
Imaginary rules are a reason to hate
The tabloids are like a great shoal of piranhas
The Brits have decided to go straight bananas

Tommy doesn't like foreigners, he says "get 'em out"
But the irony is that the Queen is a Kraut
Boris is Russian, Farage is a Frog,
Descended from Frenchies, not from a bulldog

Churchill is dead and the empire has gone
But the Brits can't accept that the world has moved on
"We'll stand on our own feet, Britain is first"
How long for the delusional bubble to burst

[armaghniac]

According to this map in the Guardian, South Armagh and Belcoo, Co Fermanagh are staying in the EU, but half of Monaghan and Cavan and Donegal is leaving, and a bit of Wicklow. This plan has a lot of merit. Mind you, Le Havre seems for the chop too.

[omochain]

Brexit is Brexit, it's red, white and blue
Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, thick Brexit stew
Full English Brexit, it's served with a T
Toast's what the UK is going to be

Brexit with Kippers, you know it's a cod
Served up with a pint and a wink and a nod
When the stakes were so high Farage was everywhere
Now sightings of Nigel are medium rare

Ulster Fry Brexit, and Scotch Eggs-it too
Nexit, Irexit, even Legs-it will do
French Fries are out, Britain's serving up chips
On the shoulders of fools bent on apocalypse

Continental Brexit is top of the menu
The Houses of Parliament today's dining venue
But just what is Brexit, well nobody knows
Though it strongly looks like emperor's brand new clothes

Experts are idiots, so says Mr. Gove
Now they're hated from Carlisle to Brighton and Hove
Knowledge is ridiculed, ignorance bliss
Little England prefers to talk out of its Swiss

Englishmen don't like their cucumbers straight
Imaginary rules are a reason to hate
The tabloids are like a great shoal of piranhas
The Brits have decided to go straight bananas

Tommy doesn't like foreigners, he says "get 'em out"
But the irony is that the Queen is a Kraut
Boris is Russian, Farage is a Frog,
Descended from Frenchies, not from a bulldog

Churchill is dead and the empire has gone
But the Brits can't accept that the world has moved on
"We'll stand on our own feet, Britain is first"
How long for the delusional bubble to burst

Impressive Sid. If you have a tune to put to that I would love to hear it.