is now a good time to buy shares?

[Tyrones own]

Looking at Washinton Mutual and Bank Of America to lead the way......Down
Intermediate term, Freddie Mac was a nice hit during the week

[DrinkingHarp]

I will throw my two cents in here for what its worth.

Take a look at any medical supply/manufacturer/distributor that does business in the states.
The Population is around 45-65% over the age of 53. That relates into a huge boom in the medical fields.
The baby boomers are no longer booming, with the onset of heart disease, arthritis and other common medical conditions associated with older age (interesting side note- Ireland does not have this drastic sitiuation of an increasing elder population due to emigration).

Two  stores that supply prescriptions, medical related items and common consumer needs (milk, toilet paper and quick purchase items) are Walgreens and CVS.

Walgreens   wag
CVS            cvs


Also look at Siruis Satelite radio they have proposed a merger with XM satelite radio to be the only satelite provider in the states. Right now the FCC is looking at this merger but will eventually have to let it go through.

Sirius (siri) is at 3.50 per share and once the merger goes through your looking at  a price between 9-23.00 per share.

Yes, I own shares in WAG and SIRI so take it at what its worth.

[Tyrones own]

 I do see where your going with the medical field but it's quite a long term play,
not a big fan of tying up capital like that unless of course in an IRA account then maybe.
I hope you weren't holding Wag over Earnings! Longs Drugs is actually showing stronger numbers (LDG)
might be a better play as Walgreen's have struggled to recover from their disappointing 4th Qtr report.

[CiKe]

people in the industry are bricking themselves and money into year end is dead money - no one is willing to put money on the table and risk bonuses at the moment. Interestingly we have just had a Dow sell signal. From a relative value point of view most models point that equities are now cheap versus bonds whose yields have gone down significantly over last couple months whilst equities earnings yields have risen. Recession in the US is now forecast at about 45% possibility and markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut - little bit of uncertainty over the last couple days though with speeches from some Fed governors and economic data still strong. People now a little bit more unsure of whether a "Bernanke put" exists - ie will the Fed act to keep everything on the straight and narrow.

On the fundamental side people seem to believe european economy is still strong, hence corporate profits should still be strong. That doesn't matter a damn if there is a US recession as correlation will go to 1 and everything will tank. Right now i wouldn't consider being outright long. In bearish markets people often look to defensive sectors with nice fat dividend yields as bond proxies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them outperform over the next couple of months.

My own view is that there is much worse to come. With the writedowns in the US and rumours/estimate of so much more, there is no smoke without fire. Debt capital markets are paralysed at the moment with virtually no new issuance of any structured products. These CDO's/CLO's etc are to some degree what have fuelled boom of recent years - by getting rid of this stuff from their balance sheets banks were able to lend out more and more to corporates and the consumer - credit was easily available. Not any more, turn the tap off and what do you have? A downturn. People are going to be very wary about getting back into these sort of products straight away hence capital won't be so readily available.

I'm not touching anything with my own money for the time being

[Tyrones own]

people in the industry are bricking themselves and money into year end is dead money - no one is willing to put money on the table and risk bonuses at the moment. Interestingly we have just had a Dow sell signal. From a relative value point of view most models point that equities are now cheap versus bonds whose yields have gone down significantly over last couple months whilst equities earnings yields have risen. Recession in the US is now forecast at about 45% possibility and markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut - little bit of uncertainty over the last couple days though with speeches from some Fed governors and economic data still strong. People now a little bit more unsure of whether a "Bernanke put" exists - ie will the Fed act to keep everything on the straight and narrow.

On the fundamental side people seem to believe european economy is still strong, hence corporate profits should still be strong. That doesn't matter a damn if there is a US recession as correlation will go to 1 and everything will tank. Right now i wouldn't consider being outright long. In bearish markets people often look to defensive sectors with nice fat dividend yields as bond proxies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them outperform over the next couple of months.

My own view is that there is much worse to come. With the writedowns in the US and rumours/estimate of so much more, there is no smoke without fire. Debt capital markets are paralysed at the moment with virtually no new issuance of any structured products. These CDO's/CLO's etc are to some degree what have fuelled boom of recent years - by getting rid of this stuff from their balance sheets banks were able to lend out more and more to corporates and the consumer - credit was easily available. Not any more, turn the tap off and what do you have? A downturn. People are going to be very wary about getting back into these sort of products straight away hence capital won't be so readily available.

I'm not touching anything with my own money for the time being

I personally think that percentage is flattering TBH and i do agree that things are going to get a lot worse here in the US and to a lesser degree globally,
I def would not be long the market for the foreseeable future, just in and out scalping what i can for me for the next while.

[heganboy]

is now a good time to buy shares- we ll the simple answer to that is yes and no.
Its a good time to buy shares in something thats going to go up and its a bad time to buy in something thats going to go down.
Stick to what you know.
If you hear that the brickies and builders you know are busy then its a good time to buy in construction. If oil prices go up its usually a good time to buy in oil companies. If gold is going up in price, then a gold mining company is likely to go up, but these gains will only be until the market has assessed that the gains have brought the company to a fair price. Likewise if you know someone working in a company about to be taken over- get in there.

The flip is also true- you know that a mining company has been illegally dumping then selling their shares (or buying options) is the way forward.

In the end of it, treat the markets as if there is a finite amount of money in the world- if something is going down, something else is going up, your job is to pick whats going up, if you're lucky you'll do well, if you're smart and lucky you'll do exceptionally well, however the market is only responsible for a small part of the price of any company, its how fundamentally sound the company is, its products and its management...

[magickingdom]

seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..

[Niall Quinn]

seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..

What is an average PE ratio for the banking industry?

[magickingdom]

seriously as someone who spent 10 years in investment banking there is great upside in bank of ire and aib at the minute. they may not have bottomed out yet but this time next year i'll eat my hat if there not up 25% from now. there trading at 7-8 times earnings which is nuts. if ye have spare cash have a look..

What is an average PE ratio for the banking industry?

sorry i just saw this. in 2006 the irish banks were trading about 12 times earnings if i remember right (currently 6),  ryanair at the minute are about 16, independant news 17. a lot of equities trade at a p/e of up to 20.. the irish market has lost 46 BILLION in value since feb 07, which is nuts buy any rational measurement

[Niall Quinn]

Since I last posted on this thread, the value of my 'watchlist' has decreased by an average 25%. Anyone else think that a US recession is now valued into market prices? Is now the time to buy, and hope for recession alleviation upside??!

[Square Ball]

Is it a good time now to buy shares? the global markets are tumbling and it will be interestering to see what happens the US markets when they open tomorrow. The FTSE has dropped 5.5% which is the biggest single drop since 11/09 whilst the ISEQ was down 272.73.

is there further to drop, what impact will this have on mortgages, will the interest rate drop to try and create further spare cash

[heganboy]

Is now the time to buy, and hope for recession alleviation upside??!

The recession will alleviate?

[Niall Quinn]

Is now the time to buy, and hope for recession alleviation upside??!

The recession will alleviate?

I'm wondering are we now at a time when the fear of US recession is already built into stock prices, and is it worth taking a gamble on something less than doomsday scenario? i.e. is the market currently undervalued?
Valuation ratio analysis gives no definitive and the dotcom era offers recent evidence that markets need not return to previous conditions, but it's my feeling that we're now approaching a good time to invest and I was wondering what the feeling was amongst posters here?
I agree Square Ball, that there will likely be reverberations on US stock tomorrow, so maybe wait that one out for 24 hrs!

[Tyrones own]

  The futures are down about 7% today lads, blood bath on the open tomorrow morning
About trying to predict or time a market bottom reminds me of the Japanese proverb;
"Don't try to catch a falling knife" advice to live by at this game!!

[lynchbhoy]

think you'd be better off backing horses than investing in the stock market
you have to invest a fortune to make a fortune , or play it steadily every day (ie a full time job)

but one wrong stock and you are back to square one
whatever time might be a good time to buy stocks and shares, imo its a waste of time.
Yes this is my own opinion, but I cant see the business sense in it !