Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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tiempo

Quote from: Insane Bolt on October 11, 2018, 10:09:26 AM
Quote from: Farrandeelin on October 11, 2018, 08:45:31 AM
Quote from: heganboy on October 11, 2018, 08:16:56 AM
A cabinet meeting called today to discuss the DUP threat to not pass the budget. Which would result in either labour backing it ot a government fail and probably a new election.

Be careful what you wish for Arlene....

Would Labour get in if there was an election?

Don't think so, feel neither party would secure a majority......coalition time again....this time with UKIP

Labour will rise again on the campaign trail, Corbyn is excellent under the microscope, they are quite ineffective as opposition, the party is fractured, been the case for 10 years now, socialist wing vs New Labour wing. If Labour MPs would focus on effective opposition to the Tories instead of shitting on their own doorstep they could actually achieve something. Surely Scotland wouldn't go as Tory as it did last time, complete and utter shambles what happened there. Labour electing Ed Milliband instead of David Milliband all those years ago has had a profound effect on events since.

DUP have 10 MPs and got a C&S deal, UKIP have none and wouln't jump from 0 to anywhere near 10 so no chance of a coalition. They'll not get a single seat.

I think Labour would take a narrow majority in an election, Tories stuck between a rock and hard place, the bastard state and Frankenstien party they are in league with will be their downfall, the Tories have no gra for anything other than money and power, same as the DUP, both will cannibalise themselves in this term.

rrhf

At this stage I  there will be a Brexit plan support mechanism with labour supplying enough support (unofficial s and c) with dup being told to go fcuk themselves. They will be shafted big time and really the electorate needs to turn on them for it in the future. Line down the Irish Sea to appear..the north could have been lead better, and with no stormont and no opposition the dup have inadvertently finished n I

yellowcard

As the UK EU exit deal nears closer I think people here are still a little bit blase about the actual consequences although I do notice a lot more fear as the deadline approaches.

Once the practical consequence become evident in the buisness, farming, manufacturing and tourism sectors alongside others though, I think the DUP may face a backlash from the crucial middle of the road voters. That is,unless they have a complete U turn and push for a best of both worlds deal for the 6 counties which will not happen. Either way they are self destructing when it comes to preserving their sacred Union by being strong advocates of Brexit.   

johnnycool

I'd say the DUP and the hardline Brexiteers are in cahoots on this one.

Making life difficult for May on the budget could possibly push the Tories into a leadership battle and I honestly believe that the DUP think Boris or Fox are more aligned to their rationale than May.

Hardline Brexiteers can then blame the DUP for Mays departure with clean hands as they set about f**king up Brexit with a no deal scenario.

seafoid

Quote from: johnnycool on October 11, 2018, 10:31:04 AM
A lot of Labour heartlands voted for Brexit.

Corbyn needs to walk a tightrope
polls are saying most of them would now vote Remain
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

yellowcard

Quote from: johnnycool on October 11, 2018, 12:31:33 PM
I'd say the DUP and the hardline Brexiteers are in cahoots on this one.

Making life difficult for May on the budget could possibly push the Tories into a leadership battle and I honestly believe that the DUP think Boris or Fox are more aligned to their rationale than May.

Hardline Brexiteers can then blame the DUP for Mays departure with clean hands as they set about f**king up Brexit with a no deal scenario.

Fair point, but the DUP will know that the hard line Brexiteers will use them to advance their own cause of overthrowing May but these hardline Brexiteers are still no less likely to throw the DUP under a bus than the present government are.

trileacman

Any chance Corbyn could topple the Tories, take power in a GE, back a new referendum, win it and take up the old mantle of the British in the EU.

If he pulled it off he'd have some serious political capital to spend both with an EU who'd owe him for overturning Brexit and at home where he'd have successfully trumped two major plebisciles and cemented a avid leftist voter base for overturning Brexit.
Fantasy Rugby World Cup Champion 2011,
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trailer

Quote from: seafoid on October 11, 2018, 12:34:15 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on October 11, 2018, 10:31:04 AM
A lot of Labour heartlands voted for Brexit.

Corbyn needs to walk a tightrope
polls are saying most of them would now vote Remain

Interesting, any polls I have seen is that the leave and remain votes have barely changed, and if anything have become more entrenched.

trailer

Quote from: trileacman on October 11, 2018, 02:13:27 PM
Any chance Corbyn could topple the Tories, take power in a GE, back a new referendum, win it and take up the old mantle of the British in the EU.

If he pulled it off he'd have some serious political capital to spend both with an EU who'd owe him for overturning Brexit and at home where he'd have successfully trumped two major plebisciles and cemented a avid leftist voter base for overturning Brexit.

Corbyn hates the EU more than some of the Tories. Corbyn isn't going to reverse Brexit.

People need to get real here. There's a lot of posturing by everyone, EU, DUP, Brexiters in the Tory party. However, Brexit is happening and will happen. What we're realistically hoping for is a Brexit that's "not to bad". Lets get real here. This is happening, it's unlikely a leadership challenge will happen in the Tory party and it's even more unlikely there will be a GE. There simply isn't time being one of the main reasons. We can hope for a softening of positions all round in the next few weeks and that we don't come out of this too badly.


johnnycool

Quote from: yellowcard on October 11, 2018, 12:48:49 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on October 11, 2018, 12:31:33 PM
I'd say the DUP and the hardline Brexiteers are in cahoots on this one.

Making life difficult for May on the budget could possibly push the Tories into a leadership battle and I honestly believe that the DUP think Boris or Fox are more aligned to their rationale than May.

Hardline Brexiteers can then blame the DUP for Mays departure with clean hands as they set about f**king up Brexit with a no deal scenario.

Fair point, but the DUP will know that the hard line Brexiteers will use them to advance their own cause of overthrowing May but these hardline Brexiteers are still no less likely to throw the DUP under a bus than the present government are.


Hardline Brexiteers want totally out of everything EU, customs union, regularity alignment, EU courts of Human Rights and so forth meaning a frontier on the island of Ireland which ultimately is what the DUP would be happy enough to settle for irrespective of economical consequences as we're going to be the same as Finchley, remember.


tiempo

Quote from: trileacman on October 11, 2018, 02:13:27 PM
Any chance Corbyn could topple the Tories, take power in a GE, back a new referendum, win it and take up the old mantle of the British in the EU.

If he pulled it off he'd have some serious political capital to spend both with an EU who'd owe him for overturning Brexit and at home where he'd have successfully trumped two major plebisciles and cemented a avid leftist voter base for overturning Brexit.

Yes and no.

Yes he could win an election but he's not a Europhile and would quite happily negotiate Brexit but on much softer terms including those extremely favourable to the Frankeistein statelet (which the DUP don't want!). I'm sure he could also be pursuaded to hold Brexit 2 and if it was remain he'd happily go with it.

bennydorano

May's biggest problem will be getting it through Parliament, there will be a Brexit deal - it will please no one and I don't see where she gets the support from to get it passed.

It's like the wild west in Politics at the minute and nothing can be taken for granted, the right wing Brexit Mps will collapse it in a heartbeat, another GE doesn't matter in this chaos.




Smokin Joe

#4602
I can't believe how little the media is freaking out about Brexit.  Even if we get agreement on a deal that gives us the transition period there will lots of upheaval for exporting companies in the UK.

Take one example of a company exporting something to Korea.  That company is currently exporting as part of the EU (on the tariffs and market access that the EU gives them).
In the event of a Deal the company can still ship to the EU as everything will continue on as is for the next 2 years.

But even if there is a Deal the UK leaves the EU on 29th March next year.  The fact that the UK and the EU has arranged a transition agreement does not mean that Korea has done so.
As far as Korea (and the rest of the world) is concerned the UK is no longer in the EU (as legally we will have left). So in order for the company to get the same market access as they do today Korea will have to make changes to its legislation / guidance to read "EU and UK" where it used to say "EU".

I'd imagine that Korea has a lot more high priority areas to legislate on that this, so when will these changes be made?  We've only got 5 months until this happens.
And then all the other third countries who we trade with as part of the EU will also need to make the same changes.

How long will this take to do?

And that's in the event that we get a Deal and have a transition arrangement with the EU.  Imagine if the UK doesn't, there'll be economic carnage as so many things are entangled with the EU.

(The above excludes any backstop arrangement for NI as it's too hard to work out what that will be like, but as a minimum, it'll be the case for the rest of the UK).

I can't understand why this isn't being shouted from the rooftops by more people.  The House of Commons knew about this last February (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/520/520.pdf), but we don't seem to be any further forward in this regard.

Rossfan

Ahhh all will be grand once they have blue passports  ::)
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Hardy

Quote from: Smokin Joe on October 11, 2018, 07:33:34 PM
I can't believe how little the media is freaking out about Brexit.  Even if we get agreement on a deal that gives us the transition period there will lots of upheaval for exporting companies in the UK.

Take one example of a company exporting something to Korea.  That company is currently exporting as part of the EU (on the tariffs and market access that the EU gives them).
In the event of a Deal the company can still ship to the EU as everything will continue on as is for the next 2 years.

But even if there is a Deal the UK leaves the EU on 29th March next year.  The fact that the UK and the EU has arranged a transition agreement does not mean that Korea has done so.
As far as Korea (and the rest of the world) is concerned the UK is no longer in the EU (as legally we will have left). So in order for the company to get the same market access as they do today Korea will have to make changes to its legislation / guidance to read "EU and UK" where it used to say "EU".

I'd imagine that Korea has a lot more high priority areas to legislate on that this, so when will these changes be made?  We've only got 5 months until this happens.
And then all the other third countries who we trade with as part of the EU will also need to make the same changes.

How long will this take to do?

And that's in the event that we get a Deal and have a transition arrangement with the EU.  Imagine if the UK doesn't, there'll be economic carnage as so many things are entangled with the EU.

(The above excludes any backstop arrangement for NI as it's too hard to work out what that will be like, but as a minimum, it'll be the case for the rest of the UK).

I can't understand why this isn't being shouted from the rooftops by more people.  The House of Commons knew about this last February (https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/520/520.pdf), but we don't seem to be any further forward in this regard.


That's all spot on, Joe.

I have my own, "I can't believe how little attention this has got ..."

Almost four out of five Northern Ireland Leavers put Brexit above peace process.

80%! Yes, 80% of (effectively) the DUP would be prepared to return to the troubles if it meant getting their Brexit, which itself will ruin their economy and hasten the United Ireland they think they would be preventing. This, more than anything I've seen in a long time, shows up the dangerously and vindictively stupid bastards we're dealing with here.