China Coronavirus

[imtommygunn]

That's why I think that oxford research could be closer to being right.

[RadioGAAGAA]

That's why I think that oxford research could be closer to being right.

But then why was there not a massive spike in people with respiratory problems in January, and why was February's initial growth so slow? (in both absolute and relative terms)

The evidence to date simply doesn't support the Oxford assumptions. It *may* work out that exposure is vastly more than anticipated - but then there is the question of why were so many older people not susceptible in Jan/Feb, but are in Mar/Apr?

[Solo_run]

That's why I think that oxford research could be closer to being right.

But then why was there not a massive spike in people with respiratory problems in January, and why was February's initial growth so slow? (in both absolute and relative terms)

The evidence to date simply doesn't support the Oxford assumptions.

We don't have just 11,600 cases in the UK at present. Nowhere near.

Even if we based it off 11,600 cases with a average infection rate of 2 to 3 people. That means for every 1 person from the 11k already infected another 2 or 3 people will get it and then the vicious cycle continues with the next person.

Therefore if one person gets it another 3 people will get it. Each of those three people who have got it will the. Spread it to another 3 people. You can see from that example how it can quickly get out of control.

[the goal was on]

So Boris gets it now.Wee bit suspicious of this. Like who sticks  a suit on when they get a high temperature.  I suppose the twat was running around laughing about shaking hands with people with corona virus a few weeks ago!

[johnnycool]

So Boris gets it now.Wee bit suspicious of this. Like who sticks  a suit on when they get a high temperature.  I suppose the twat was running around laughing about shaking hands with people with corona virus a few weeks ago!

Now Hancock as well..

I'd be surprised if Raab didn't have it a week or so a go when he was sweating like a pig and coughing away in Parliament during PM's questions!

[tbrick18]

So Boris gets it now.Wee bit suspicious of this. Like who sticks  a suit on when they get a high temperature.  I suppose the twat was running around laughing about shaking hands with people with corona virus a few weeks ago!

Now Hancock as well..

I'd be surprised if Raab didn't have it a week or so a go when he was sweating like a pig and coughing away in Parliament during PM's questions!

In all seriousness, what would happen of the government, or even cabinet, were more or less wiped out by this?
In a doomsday scenario, lets say they all get Covid at the same time and most can't function and some ministers die. What's the process for re-constituting government?

[quit yo jibbajabba]

Id say we hardly notice. Half joking.

Sure its the boyos behind the scenes runnin the show anyways..

[Aaron Boone]

So Boris gets it now.Wee bit suspicious of this. Like who sticks  a suit on when they get a high temperature.  I suppose the twat was running around laughing about shaking hands with people with corona virus a few weeks ago!

Now Hancock as well..

I'd be surprised if Raab didn't have it a week or so a go when he was sweating like a pig and coughing away in Parliament during PM's questions!

In all seriousness, what would happen of the government, or even cabinet, were more or less wiped out by this?
In a doomsday scenario, lets say they all get Covid at the same time and most can't function and some ministers die. What's the process for re-constituting government?

It's time for Her Majesty to step up to the plate, years of experience.

[GetOverTheBar]

So Boris gets it now.Wee bit suspicious of this. Like who sticks  a suit on when they get a high temperature.  I suppose the twat was running around laughing about shaking hands with people with corona virus a few weeks ago!

Now Hancock as well..

I'd be surprised if Raab didn't have it a week or so a go when he was sweating like a pig and coughing away in Parliament during PM's questions!

In all seriousness, what would happen of the government, or even cabinet, were more or less wiped out by this?
In a doomsday scenario, lets say they all get Covid at the same time and most can't function and some ministers die. What's the process for re-constituting government?

The British don't have a coded constitution. It would be something with no precedent but assume the opposition would be invited to form an intermediate government prior to an election. 

[johnnycool]

Id say we hardly notice. Half joking.

Sure its the boyos behind the scenes runnin the show anyways..

Cummins seen running from Downing Street earlier.

https://news.sky.com/video/prime-ministers-chief-adviser-in-a-hurry-after-his-boss-reveals-he-has-coronavirus-11964540

[LeoMc]

So Boris gets it now.Wee bit suspicious of this. Like who sticks  a suit on when they get a high temperature.  I suppose the twat was running around laughing about shaking hands with people with corona virus a few weeks ago!

Now Hancock as well..

I'd be surprised if Raab didn't have it a week or so a go when he was sweating like a pig and coughing away in Parliament during PM's questions!

In all seriousness, what would happen of the government, or even cabinet, were more or less wiped out by this?
In a doomsday scenario, lets say they all get Covid at the same time and most can't function and some ministers die. What's the process for re-constituting government?

The British don't have a coded constitution. It would be something with no precedent but assume the opposition would be invited to form an intermediate government prior to an election.

Unless it wiped out their majority I would say the remaining Tory MPs or the Tory party members would select their new PM.

[RadioGAAGAA]

We don't have just 11,600 cases in the UK at present. Nowhere near.

Ach, I know that!

Its the serious cases that also should have ramped up earlier based on Oxford. We can compare across those as they won't have gone undiagnosed.

The ratio of mild to serious is more or less consistent - perhaps even tending toward a lower proportion of cases being serious as a virus tends to mutate to a more benign form.

[RadioGAAGAA]

In all seriousness, what would happen of the government, or even cabinet, were more or less wiped out by this?
In a doomsday scenario, lets say they all get Covid at the same time and most can't function and some ministers die. What's the process for re-constituting government?

Lizzie could just hand authority to the silly servants.

[imtommygunn]

That's why I think that oxford research could be closer to being right.

But then why was there not a massive spike in people with respiratory problems in January, and why was February's initial growth so slow? (in both absolute and relative terms)

The evidence to date simply doesn't support the Oxford assumptions. It *may* work out that exposure is vastly more than anticipated - but then there is the question of why were so many older people not susceptible in Jan/Feb, but are in Mar/Apr?

There is no evidence of very much though. As someone said the UK don't have 11,600 cases it is way more than that. A significant magnitude more.

I can't answer it but it's more on gut feel to be honest but there is no evidence to back up anything in any of this as we don't know how many are infected and even in Italy or China we don't know that so every single stat you see on this is signifcantly skewed. Mortality rates are probably way lower and actual cases way higher. (Both by the same magnitude in opposite directions obviously).

[Solo_run]

We don't have just 11,600 cases in the UK at present. Nowhere near.

Ach, I know that!

Its the serious cases that also should have ramped up earlier based on Oxford. We can compare across those as they won't have gone undiagnosed.

The ratio of mild to serious is more or less consistent - perhaps even tending toward a lower proportion of cases being serious as a virus tends to mutate to a more benign form.

Too many factors could be responsible for the lack of increases in hospitalisations so far.

Not long ago patients who have Coronavirus would have been sent home by GP's thinking it was just a common cold/flu. Healthcare workers were not aware of any cases. Now that they are aware of Coronavirus and the threat is now real and with more awareness there is more testing.

Just think if 1 person brought Coronavirus to UK undetected but had managed to infect 5/6 people on the flight, it's going to spread rapidly.

Perhaps people in Italy and Spain are more likely to be around people because the weather is warmish and go outside. In Ireland and UK people are more likely to stay indoors and contact with others is minimised. Then you have to factor in cultural differences in how the likes of Italy, Spain and France greet each other, it's more physical than here.

It could be that 500,000 are infected without knowing it from attending football games (I think a study in Iceland has identified 40 different strains of Covid 19 and traced 4 back to football games in England). Elderly people aren't as likely to attend such events and we are probably likely to see them being hospitalised in the coming days.