Tyrone v Dublin - The return of the Jedi

[bennydorano]

Fully expect Tyrone to win.

[WT4E]

 Can't wait for this tomorrow - I was more confident a week ago of an upset but still believe it can be done.

So the Dublin team doesn't contain Connolly however think its interest the switch of McCaffrey to wing back and Lowndes to wing forward. I have suspicion Lowndes will drop out and the long range kicking psycho will start!!!!

1. Stephen Cluxton (Parnells)
2. Philly McMahon (Ballymun Kickhams)
3. Cian O'Sullivan (Kilmacud Crokes)
4. Michael Fitzsimons (Cuala)
5. Jonny Cooper (Na Fianna)
6. John Small (Ballymun Kickhams)
7. Jack McCaffrey (Clontarf)
8. Brian Fenton (Raheny)
9. James McCarthy (Ballymun Kickhams)
10. Ciarán Kilkenny (Castleknock)
11. Con O'Callaghan (Cuala)
12. Eric Lowndes (St Peregrine's)
13. Paul Mannion (Kilmacud Crokes)
14. Paddy Andrews (St Brigid's)
15. Dean Rock (Ballymun Kickhams)

[Gael85]

Can't wait for this tomorrow - I was more confident a week ago of an upset but still believe it can be done.

So the Dublin team doesn't contain Connolly however think its interest the switch of McCaffrey to wing back and Lowndes to wing forward. I have suspicion Lowndes will drop out and the long range kicking psycho will start!!!!

1. Stephen Cluxton (Parnells)
2. Philly McMahon (Ballymun Kickhams)
3. Cian O'Sullivan (Kilmacud Crokes)
4. Michael Fitzsimons (Cuala)
5. Jonny Cooper (Na Fianna)
6. John Small (Ballymun Kickhams)
7. Jack McCaffrey (Clontarf)
8. Brian Fenton (Raheny)
9. James McCarthy (Ballymun Kickhams)
10. Ciarán Kilkenny (Castleknock)
11. Con O'Callaghan (Cuala)
12. Eric Lowndes (St Peregrine's)
13. Paul Mannion (Kilmacud Crokes)
14. Paddy Andrews (St Brigid's)
15. Dean Rock (Ballymun Kickhams)

McCaffrey/Lowndes played in them roles in last game. Lowndes plays half forward for club and there for Dublin at u21. Can't see DC  starting. He has only played one full game for Dublin all year

[Fear ón Srath Bán]

So my suspicions about Connolly were right, or were they?...

[RedHand88]

So my suspicions about Connolly were right, or were they?...

I still have a notion he will start.

[never kickt a ball]

One Dub down. Another 20 plus to go.......
Tyrone Abu

[omagh_gael]

Safe travels to all today. Weather is going to be great and hopefully the atmosphere and game matches it. The heart says Tyrone can nick it but a purely objective analysis would say the Dubs by 2-3 points.

Come on the Red Hands!!!

[Whishtup]

One Dub down. Another 20 plus to go.......
Tyrone Abu

We are more akin to McGregor, trying to oust the tried and tested champions with an unorthodox style. Let's hope we go the distance...

[Hound]

Can't wait for this tomorrow - I was more confident a week ago of an upset but still believe it can be done.

So the Dublin team doesn't contain Connolly however think its interest the switch of McCaffrey to wing back and Lowndes to wing forward. I have suspicion Lowndes will drop out and the long range kicking psycho will start!!!!

1. Stephen Cluxton (Parnells)
2. Philly McMahon (Ballymun Kickhams)
3. Cian O'Sullivan (Kilmacud Crokes)
4. Michael Fitzsimons (Cuala)
5. Jonny Cooper (Na Fianna)
6. John Small (Ballymun Kickhams)
7. Jack McCaffrey (Clontarf)
8. Brian Fenton (Raheny)
9. James McCarthy (Ballymun Kickhams)
10. Ciarán Kilkenny (Castleknock)
11. Con O'Callaghan (Cuala)
12. Eric Lowndes (St Peregrine's)
13. Paul Mannion (Kilmacud Crokes)
14. Paddy Andrews (St Brigid's)
15. Dean Rock (Ballymun Kickhams)

McCaffrey/Lowndes played in them roles in last game. Lowndes plays half forward for club and there for Dublin at u21. Can't see DC  starting. He has only played one full game for Dublin all year

Exactly. Gavin almost always gives the team that started last day as the team for the program. So none the wiser whether this will be the team that starts or not. Personally I'd be surprised if Lowndes starts, with either Flynn or Connolly to start. I think Flynn would be a very poor choice to start against Tyrone (or Mayo for that matter, while he would have been good for Kerry). I'd prefer Connolly to start rather than come on, coz unsure how he'd react to the cocophony from both sets of supporters. It'd be great gas though!

Others suggest Andrews might make way for O'Gara. I would cuss like McGregor if that happened! Getting feckin annoyed just thinking about it

[Wildweasel74]

Dublin to take it in a brute ugly game that can be barely watched. Tyrone defensive style means the game will be very close always leaving them with a chance to nick it,

[seafoid]

Any Tyrone posters who doubt Tyrone ?

[Zulu]

I think Dublin will win comfortably enough. It'll probably be tight and low scoring with some Tyrone supporters feeling they could have won it but in reality Dublin had them at arms length all day. Best of luck to both teams, I hope it's a great game but I fear it will be awful. 

[Over the Bar]

Any Tyrone posters who doubt Tyrone ?

Absolutely.  Dublin only need to turn up and are a machine.  No chance of them wilting like they did v Mayo in the drawn AI final last year. They've a process that can't lose.  Mind you I heard Gavin brought the team to mass this morning and stopped off at the chemist to buy some dioralite!

[sid waddell]

I can't call Dublin v Tyrone but I will anyway. I think Tyrone will win by one point.

My feeling is that Dublin are being overrated going into this one.

For me, Dublin are an easier team to read in terms of form than Mayo, Kerry and Tyrone because they can sustain a much longer peak due to having far greater squad depth than anybody else and also due to geographical advantages - ie. none of their players live outside Dublin, which is a small county anyway.

I believe Dublin have not been at the level of previous years and struggled through much of the league, ending up losing the final to Kerry, whereas last year they drove a coach and horses through a much stronger Kerry team in the final.

The championship has taught us nothing about Dublin yet.

People might argue that it has taught us nothing about Tyrone, but it has - they are putting away teams with absolute ease, whereas they weren't in previous years.

There is no head to head championship form guide to go on.

But when two full strength or near full strength teams really go at each other in the league, it is a guide. Mayo and Kerry proves that. Mayo and Dublin proves that. Dublin and Kerry proves that. Dublin and Tyrone have gone at each other full throttle on five occasions since Jim Gavin took over. One point separates them on aggregate. These games weren't played in the muck on a provincial pitch - four were in Croke Park, with the other one on a perfect pitch in Omagh in glorious April sunshine. And at least three were with considerably inferior Tyrone teams than will line out tomorrow.

Only a fool would disregard those results.

Not only have this Dublin team never hammered Kerry in the championship but they haven't hammered any team in an All-Ireland semi-final or final in this decade.

In every single semi-final or final they have played bar one (Kerry 2015), the opposition was in a potentially winning position at a key stage of the second half.

Dublin have conceded a glut of goals in semi-finals, and tend to concede gluts of scores in a short space of time in key matches. 2-4 v Kerry last year, 1-4 v Mayo in 2015, 3-6 to 0-3 in less than 20 minutes in 2014, three goals in 14 minutes against Kerry in 2013, 0-9 to 0-1 against Mayo in 18 minutes in 2012.

If they do anything like that today, they're toast.

Dublin's strength is obviously their collective, but when I look through the team on an individual basis, it looks weaker than it did in 2013 to 2015.

Lowndes, O'Callaghan, Rock, Small, these players can be got at.

For me some of the older hands aren't as good as they were.

Kilkenny and Fenton are Dublin's two key attacking men. I expect Tyrone to be gunning for them with a vengeance from before the first whistle.

Lowndes is there to track Tiernan McCann. Dublin are haunted by the memory of Ryan McHugh running riot in 2014. But if I was Jim Gavin, I'd stick Philly McMahon on McCann.

Tyrone have plan A and plan A. The thing is that that plan A is very, very difficult to negate, as those teams who fell victim to peak Donegal found out, and Tyrone end up playing Plan A the way they like while their opponent plays in a way they aren't used to. Tactics in Gaelic football are still rudimentary enough in world sporting terms and teams often don't have a great ability to adapt if taken out of their tactical comfort zone. Mayo too Kerry out of theirs and Kerry had no answer.

Dublin played a much more defensive structure in 2011 against Donegal, basically keeping six defenders back at all times.

That formation stopped Donegal from scoring goals (though McFadden should have got one), but Dublin found it terribly difficult to break down and thus we got a dirge.

I expect Dublin's approach will be a sort of half way house between the cautious approach of 2011 and the gung ho approach of 2014.

The jury is out on whether Tyrone are better than Donegal 2012 who had the system down to a ridiculously fine art, but they are better than Donegal 2011.

The first 15 minutes will set the tone. If one team gets significantly ahead, ie. 4 to 5 points, the expected pattern could go out the window. But remember Donegal were 5 behind Dublin in 2014 and stuck firm to their plan and prevailed. If neither does, as I expect, it will probably turn into a dogfight with maybe somewhere in the region of 12-14 points being a winning total.

Basically, Tyrone will try to unsettle Dublin so much that Dublin's normal attacking game, their support play and angles of running break down.

Getting through such a defence is a desperate mental grind. I'd be very doubtful if Con O'Callaghan and Dean Rock have the experience in the case of the former and the ability in the case of the latter to do it.

The other alternative is to kick points from distance as Flynn and Connolly did in 2014. But Flynn won't be starting, and even if Connolly does, there are questions about his readiness.

I don't think anybody else on the Dublin team has the ability to kick those sort of points from long distance. And even if they do, the radar can only last for so long. Those Flynn and Connolly points dried up beyond 30 minutes in 2014.

So Dublin will be relying on Andrews and Mannion close to goal, Kilkenny and Fenton to create and McCarthy and McCaffrey to try and make runs which lose defenders.

Peak Bernard Brogan was brilliant at sticking to his task against that kind of defence. But he's no longer peak Bernard Brogan.

McManamon will have a big role off the bench. O'Gara will I expect be a disaster if he sees game time. I just can't see him making any headway at all.

At the back I have a hunch that Cian O'Sullivan is playing at a level below his best. Possibly Philly McMahon too.

That isn't to say there aren't doubts surrounding some Tyrone players. Aidan McCrory and Conall McCann are two. And I'd have doubts whether Sean Cavanagh is till up to it and how Mark Bradley's lack of height and physical strength could be exposed, although he's a beautiful footballer.

What Tyrone might be lacking today is a Jason Doherty type, an outlet ball.

If you have that, you effectively double your attacking options - more than double them in fact - you can go long or you can use the running game and the opposition can't focus on or the other.

Doherty coming into form has probably been the primary reason for Mayo's resurgence.

Mark Bradley is a sort of outlet but he generally plays too close to goal to be a real one. Maybe he might come deeper today?

Tyrone to win 1-11 to 0-13, but I've no confidence in that prediction. This is anybody's game and a replay is a distinct possibility.

[bannside]

Superb analysis Sid, mostly factual with some opinion thrown in. Youd better hope O Gara dosent run riot lol.

Lets see how it pans out. This could be a classic...bring it on.