The Horse racing thread

Donnellys Hollow · March 28, 2011, 03:05:28 PM

Quote from: orangeman on March 28, 2011, 02:37:23 PM
Crazy price 1/12 on

1/12 on??

12/1 on!

drici · March 28, 2011, 04:08:02 PM

Great stuff from the Irish News tipsters.

RealSpiritof98 · March 28, 2011, 04:27:28 PM

i love the straight forecast, £1.56 lol

Mickey Linden · March 30, 2011, 10:56:53 AM

What way do they sort out the runners for the national? I have always liked a horse called Merigo. Whats his chances of getting in? If he does get in what weight would he have to carry?

Donnellys Hollow · March 30, 2011, 11:05:58 AM

He'd need 16 ahead of him to come out so it's highly unlikely he'll get a run.

Mickey Linden · March 30, 2011, 11:34:42 AM

Always wondered what way that worked DH. The 16 horses ahead of him, on what basis are they ahead of him? Cheers

Donnellys Hollow · March 30, 2011, 12:08:00 PM

Phil Smith (the British handicapper) has allotted them a higher rating.

Don't Push It is the highest rated horse in the field with an official rating of 160. He will carry top weight of 11st10lbs. Merigo is rated 137 so he would in theory be getting 23lbs from Don't Push It (i.e. 10st1lb). But Merigo is number 56 on the list so there are 55 horses rated higher than him and only 40 runners get into the race so he'll need 15 of the horses rated higher than him at the moment to be taken out.

The cut off point is likely to be around One Cool Cookie or Our Monty who are currently 47 and 48 on the list respectively.

TacadoirArdMhacha · March 30, 2011, 12:24:31 PM

What do you reckon to Blusea Cracker's chacnes DH? Defending a decent record of Irish National winners though I presume that mares have a poor record in the race?

Donnellys Hollow · March 30, 2011, 02:23:58 PM

I never have too strong an opinion on the Aintree National tbh because the race is such a lottery. I wouldn't want to put anyone off a particular horse because some of them just come alive over the big fences. Don't Push It looked like he'd turned into a right dog since he was running in the Arkle and bustling up Denman as a novice, but look at how the race sparked his enthusiasm last year.

Bluesea Cracker has proved her ability to perform in big fields and over extreme distances so she ticks two boxes. Her form this year has been uninspiring (she travelled like the winner for much of the way in a Cheltenham handicap in November but found nothing off the bridle). It would be foolish to write her off on the basis of that though because plenty of mares only find their form once they get a bit of sun on their backs. The mares stat wouldn't put me off because very few have run in the race so it is not a big enough sample for it to be a reliable trend.

I've an antepost bet on The Midnight Club from before the Thyestes and everything appears to be coming right for him now with Walsh booked and the rain forecast. The value in his price has probably gone now though.

RealSpiritof98 · April 01, 2011, 03:31:47 PM

getting word for one now in 5 mins,

RealSpiritof98 · April 01, 2011, 03:56:23 PM

rossmill lad 4.10 Stratford

randomtask · April 01, 2011, 03:57:04 PM

how reliable?

RealSpiritof98 · April 01, 2011, 04:02:11 PM

source 80% strike rate for me!!

Fermanaghandsam · April 01, 2011, 04:14:50 PM

Quote from: Donnellys Hollow on March 30, 2011, 12:08:00 PM
Phil Smith (the British handicapper) has allotted them a higher rating.

Don't Push It is the highest rated horse in the field with an official rating of 160. He will carry top weight of 11st10lbs. Merigo is rated 137 so he would in theory be getting 23lbs from Don't Push It (i.e. 10st1lb). But Merigo is number 56 on the list so there are 55 horses rated higher than him and only 40 runners get into the race so he'll need 15 of the horses rated higher than him at the moment to be taken out.

The cut off point is likely to be around One Cool Cookie or Our Monty who are currently 47 and 48 on the list respectively.

When is the final field actually decided, is there a cut off point next week?

Hardy · April 01, 2011, 04:18:42 PM

Quote from: Fermanaghandsam on April 01, 2011, 04:14:50 PM
Quote from: Donnellys Hollow on March 30, 2011, 12:08:00 PM
Phil Smith (the British handicapper) has allotted them a higher rating.

Don't Push It is the highest rated horse in the field with an official rating of 160. He will carry top weight of 11st10lbs. Merigo is rated 137 so he would in theory be getting 23lbs from Don't Push It (i.e. 10st1lb). But Merigo is number 56 on the list so there are 55 horses rated higher than him and only 40 runners get into the race so he'll need 15 of the horses rated higher than him at the moment to be taken out.

The cut off point is likely to be around One Cool Cookie or Our Monty who are currently 47 and 48 on the list respectively.

When is the final field actually decided, is there a cut off point next week?

Final declarations on Thursday.