The Horse racing thread

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

Dunguib set to take on Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown rather than having a canter round Naas on Saturday.

I'm tempted to have a few quid on for the Stayers Hurdle because I suspect Hurricane Fly will easily outspeed him and they might be tempted to step him up in trip instead of trying to sneak a place in the Champion Hurdle. His pedigree says three miles rather than two. He's by Presenting - the same sire as Denman and War Of Attrition. His dam Edermine Berry won over 2m6 for Philip Rothwell at Downpatrick and her half brother (Cruise The Fairway) was a decent staying handicap chaser for Brendan Powell in England.

It's a long shot but I think 3 miles will eventually be his optimum trip and his jumping would be under less pressure due to the more sedate pace they go over 24 furlongs.

Something has to beat that Big Bucks sooner or later! I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if DK threw a spanner in the works in the next few weeks and announced that Rite Of Passage will run in the Stayers at Cheltenham.

DH a thought struck me and I'm wondering if its just a mad idea but if Nicholls was to send Denman to the World Hurdle and Big Bucks to the Gold Cup would he increase his chances of landing both? I realise there's no chance of this happening but Ruby's comments in his autobiography about what a good hurdler Denman is stuck in my memory.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Not a chance it will happen is right TAM but interesting observation nonetheless.

I haven't really got a strong opinion on the Gold Cup yet. I can't have the Nicholls pair at 11 years of age - Denman seems to have his own ideas about the game nowadays and Kauto Star looked laboured to my eyes in the in the Nicholson which could be a sign of regression. Imperial Commander is far from bombproof himself. It's traditionally been a race for second season chasers but Diamond Harry has never looked entirely straightforward especially at Cheltenham and Pandorama would need plenty of give and he hardly excelled himself on his last trip to England much to my cost!

Big Bucks has a hell of an engine but from my memory of his brief chasing career his jumping left a lot to be desired. He ran in the Jewson in 2008 off a mark of 148 and could only finish 7th. He was only a baby then but most of the top chasers don't spend long over timber because they tend to pick up bad habits. The top hurdlers are very quick getting from one side of their obstacles to the other and they tend to just graze the top bar. Jumping a fence requires a different technique. Most horses that have been hurdling for a number of seasons tend to disappoint when they go novice chasing because they're so used to hurdles and they can't adapt - Celestial Halo, Iris's Gift and Harchibald to name three. If Big Bucks ever goes over fences again which I doubt he will, I'd want to be against him.

Hurdling clearly suits him but I don't buy this 'best NH horse in training' guff from the RP. The most celebrated horses run at 2 miles over hurdles and at 3 miles over fences. Staying hurdles are no more than a consolation prize. With the exception of Punchestowns, Big Bucks hasn't really beaten anything since he's gone over hurdles. The likes of Lough Derg, Souffleur and Duc De Regniere are not top drawer horses. He probably won't have any opposition this March either though. I've seen a few people talking up Mourad but he's a soft horse who'll fold when the pressure comes on. I'd love to see something like Dunguib, Rite Of Passage or even Long Run back over hurdles take him on to see if they can get him at it. It's probable that none of them will though and he'll probably go off 1/3 on the day.

[Hardy]

Dunguib  ... I'm tempted to have a few quid on for the Stayers Hurdle

You can have €2 at 95 on Betfair. Next price on offer? 3.5!

I agree, DH, about Denman, Kauto Star and Imperial Commander in the Gold Cup. Apart from observed form,
statistics would suggest that all three will regress this year.

Do you think Sizing Europe will go for the Gold Cup or the Champion Chase? I have to assume the Gold Cup is being
considered, given that his last three entries were over distance. If that’s the intention, he’s good value ante-post at 44.
Though the fact that he’s drifting makes me think the market knows something.

I think his last three runs are being viewed too negatively. You would have to be tolerant of the Punchestown form of a
Cheltenham winner. You must assume he peaked for Cheltenham, so it’s easy to excuse his defeat by two as good as
Golden Silver and Pady. 

Likewise, I would take little enough notice of the first run of a season as a form guide and his other defeat was to no
less than Kauto Star and in conditions he won’t have enjoyed.

Before that he was undefeated in his first five chases and even still has never been out of the first three in a chase. We
don't really know yet about his ability to get three miles and he has lost on both occasions he’s tried to go more than two
and a half miles but excuses can be made for both – one was a first run of the season and four lengths off Kauto Star over
a muddy three miles doesn’t seem to suggest a stamina problem. Obviously connections think he has prospects over
this distance.

Falling back on my stats approach, his profile is near perfect for a Gold Cup winner in a year when the profiles of  the
top three in the betting are anything but. I’m not saying Sizing Europe is a Gold Cup winner. He still has a lot to find and,
stats aside, Imperial Commander looks a likely winner to me. But I’m looking at backing him ante-post with the possibility
of trading out. I was anticipating a good run in the King George but whatever his next engagement, I’d bet those odds will
shorten very considerably.

Any idea where he’ll run now that the King George is out?

[bcarrier]

Hardy you might have seen it already but this site is good for stats in major races http://www.racecaller.com/

Stats for NH horses on various ground by Sire/ Dam is something I would be interested in but cant find a summary anywhere....

Also interested in development by age according to sire  and in Chase vs Hurdles form ( eg Old Vics much better chasers usually ).

[Hardy]

Bcarrier - thank you. I wasn't aware of that site. I've been looking for something to take the spadework out of working out stats for the big races. Where do they have the stats - is it in the forums?

I don't know of any source of sire stats for NH racing. You may know Flatstats do some sire stats for the flat - http://www.flatstats.co.uk/sire_stats.php
The only sire-related info I know of for NH is on Dave Renham's http://www.racingtrends.co.uk (a subscription site - very good - £20-odd per month) but this only gives selections based on Dave's own analysis - it doesn't provide the stats themselves. A typical entry:

1.05    Doncaster - Get Ready To Go: Poor Sire Stats - Turtle Island in non handicap hurdles; SR 5% ROI -79% (win & pl 20%)

My main source of stats is a downloadable database from Simple Software Racing. It's part of a software package but I just use the database and process it myself for my own stats. You have to install the software and then just copy the database from the installed folder. It's free and has results back to 1994. It has data in 25 categories, but not breeding, unfortunately. http://www.racingsense.com/racingsense101128.zip

I also use Racing Systems Builder (www.rsbweb.com) as a good way of processing stats, but it doesn't have as many categories as SSR.

[TacadoirArdMhacha]

I would have thought that the Ryanair is a live option for Sizing Europe.

[Hardy]

Probably is, as well. It just seems connections are aiming him at three miles, but if he doesn't go in the Gold Cup, the Ryanair is probably as likely as the Champion Chase.

[bcarrier]

Its under forum link ... eg here are Irish Champ Hurdle 10 year trends

http://www.racecaller.com/raceAnalytics/view/id/3366

The Toshiba Irish Champion Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 23rd January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace and Istabraq. The key form race is the Leopardstown Festival Hurdle from which 5 of the last 10 winners have come.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-1

5yo: 0-1-7

6yo: 5-3-15

7yo: 0-4-18

8yo: 1-3-15

9yo: 2-1-6

10yo+: 2-2-9

6yos have the best record having won 5 of the last 9 renewals while older horses also do well in the race with horses aged 9 or above having a combined record of 4-3-15.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on their last completed start

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times that season

8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (1 exception was 2nd in a grade 1 while other won the Greatwood and was having first run in a grade 1)

8 of 10 winners had their last run in December

8 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was having first course start while other was placed on both previous runs here)



Other Races

Previous year's winner (Solwhit): 1F222 (1-3-5)

Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): F12112341 (4-2-9)

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 3131 (2-1-4)

Morgiana Hurdle winner (Solwhit): F2185 (2-1-6)

Previous season Royal Bond winner (Dunguib): F2128 (1-2-5)

Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Dunguib): 12 (1-1-2)

Champion Hurdle winner (Binocular): 1372 (1-1-4)

Champion Nov' Hurdle winner (Blackstairmountain): F1428 (1-1-5)

Hatton's Grace winner (Hurricane Fly): 242P (0-2-4)

5 of 10 winners ran in Festival Hurdle last time, finishing F1131

5 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at Cheltenham Festival (3 Champion Hurdle, 1 Supreme, 1 Neptune)

4 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 2311

3 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 131

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F21

3 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 332

2 of 10 winners ran in the Core Hurdle, finishing 11



Trainers

Colm Murphy (2-2-6) saddled Brave Inca to gain 2 wins and 2 seconds.

Charles Byrnes (1-0-1) trained Solwhit to win this last year.

Noel Meade (0-2-7) has had a poor record in this race over the last 10 years with no wins and 2 places from 7 representatives while Willie Mullins (0-0-4) has seen all 4 of his runners finish unplaced.

British trained runners (0-1-5) have gained just 1 place from 5 runners in the past 10 years.



Price

8 of 10 winners were priced 10/3 or shorter

This is certainly not a race for longshots with 8/1 and 9/1 the two long priced winners in the past decade.

Favourites (6-2-11) have won 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 2.65.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    *
      Aged 6 or 9+
    *
      Finished in first 3 last time out (preferably in the Festival Hurdle)
    *
      Run no more than 3 times this season
    *
      Had its last run in December
    *
      Won a grade 1 hurdle
    *
      Previously won at Leopardstown
    *
      Finished in first 4 at Cheltenham Festival
    *
      First 3 in Morgiana, Hatton’s Grace or Punchestown Champ H'dl
    *
      Trained in Ireland
    *
      Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record)

[Hardy]

That's excellent, bcarrier. Thanks.

[the greatest jockey]

6 or 9+ is one of those coincidinces that statistics throw up that jus cant be a viable trend, 7 and 8 year olds surely cant be discounted based on being that age, no reason why that isnt their prime age

[118cmal]

Jamie Spencer after giving a great ride in the 4.15

[Donnellys Hollow]

Hard to know where they'll go with Sizing Europe. Not a lot of options for him between now and March and I'm not certain the Hennessy would suit him. My guess is they'll go for the Kinloch Brae over two and a half at Thurles or the Red Mills Trial at Gowran and then on to the Gold Cup. I've never been a massive fan of the animal but he probably has a better chance in this Gold Cup than he does taking on Big Zeb & Master Minded. He does fit the trends - second season chaser unexposed at the trip.

Nothing really jumps off the page looking at the entries. Pride Of Dulcote and China Rock make most appeal to me at the moment unless Pandorama was to get his ground.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Stats for NH horses on various ground by Sire/ Dam is something I would be interested in but cant find a summary anywhere....

Also interested in development by age according to sire  and in Chase vs Hurdles form ( eg Old Vics much better chasers usually ).

Even though they've made a bags of upgrading it the RP stallion book is still the best resource.

Click on the 'progeny statistics' tab and a list of stats will appear including how a sire's progeny have fared in different ground and over different distances. Nothing on age (unless you're looking at a flat sire) and chases/hurdles but a handy tip would be to click on the 'progeny' tab and research the highest rated progeny - what was their respective hurdle and chase ratings and were they early or late maturing horses? At what stage of their careers did they achieve their highest ratings? Clear trends will quickly appear.

I personally think the dam is almost as important in terms of stamina than the sire especially when you have a versatile sire (distance wise). Always research the dam and her sire to get a clear picture.

Kings Theatre (IRE):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=84432&tab=stud

Presenting (GB):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=96595&popup=1

Oscar (IRE):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=462135&popup=1

Flemensfirth (USA):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=96578&popup=1

Beneficial (GB):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=75837&popup=1

Anshan (GB):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=49160&popup=1

Old Vic (GB):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=42337&popup=1

Bob Back (USA):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=304239&popup=1

Accordion (GB):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=304885&popup=1

Montjeu (IRE):
http://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/stallionbook/stallion_home.sd?horse_id=503034&tab=stud


They're the top 10 NH sires as they rank at the moment. I'm sure John Magnier wouldn't be too happy with me listing Montjeu as a NH sire but he sneaks in at number ten mostly on the back of Hurricane Fly's exploits. Sorry for clogging up the thread with this but I've always been a bit of a pedigree anorak.

[bcarrier]

Thanks Hardy and DH. Bit of work to do.

[bamboo]

Heading to Kempton tomorrow with a few other lads, should be a good day out.

Whats your views on the card lads. Kauto and Binocular double??

Anything else stand out that i should be taking a look at?