The Horse racing thread

Hardy · January 07, 2011, 06:44:07 PM

Quote from: Donnellys Hollow on January 07, 2011, 06:41:59 PM
Quote from: Hardy on January 07, 2011, 06:39:01 PM
I didn't see any stats for it, DH and I don't think I'll have time to do my own between now and then. I assembled the Welsh National stats from a site I subscribe to that had already done the donkey work, with a little added interpretation of my own. I'm planning to put together a portfolio of stats for major races, but I haven't made much progress yet.

Good luck with it.

That muppet of a handicapper over in England might make life difficult for you though. The Aintree National stats have been turned on their head the past two years because of the stupid way he frames the weights.

Exactly, as I know to my cost. He seems to make a special case of the National, though.

Donnellys Hollow · January 07, 2011, 06:53:47 PM

I suppose the Aintree National is unique but he seems to come up with some daft ratings, particularly for novices both over fences and hurdles. His overreaction to Cue Card after winning at the Paddy Power meeting was laughable. There's no way on earth Denman ran to 182 in the Gold Cup and don't get me started on Master Minded's rating!

A few friends of mine sent a very moderate novice hurdler over to Cheltenham for one of the handicaps at the festival a few years ago. They might as well have left the poor horse at home because Smith gave him a stone more than Noel O'Brien had given him over here.

the greatest jockey · January 08, 2011, 03:33:03 PM

scandalour from townend on blacstairmountain

Donnellys Hollow · January 08, 2011, 03:57:15 PM

I wouldn't be too harsh on Townend. BSM needs it like a road and he can pull himself up in front as he did at Fairyhouse last year when Luska Lad chinned him. The horse looked tired jumping the last (which he walked through) and I doubt there was a lot left in the tank even if he had given him a few cracks behind the saddle. He probably got there too soon but there was nothing travelling well enough to give him a lead turning in.

Townend is ridiculously talented for his age but he does seem to think he is Paul Carberry at times. He could learn a lot from Patrick Mullins. In terms of style, he's Junior C standard compared to Townend but he always keeps it simple and he always rides out to the line no matter how superior his horse is to the opposition.

Chapman talking up Mille Chief as a potential Champion Hurdle contender now!!

the greatest jockey · January 08, 2011, 04:00:38 PM

mille chief looked brilliant, had flat out in teh first today, mille chief at the end but a long baron spell in between. flat out could be a good cheltenham prospect now

Donnellys Hollow · January 08, 2011, 04:08:53 PM

I'd prefer to see Flat Out aimed at the Powers. It should be weakened this year due to this stupid new 2m5 novice chase at Cheltenham.

Great card tomorrow at Leopardstown. Probably won't touch the big handicap which looks ridiculously competitive as always. Jessies Dream the class act on the card - should be good enough under a penalty and then hopefully on to March where he'll have a serious chance in the Sun Alliance. The 4yo bumper is always worth watching. Ned Kelly and Kicking King have won it in the past. DK's horse will probably be all the rage.

the greatest jockey · January 08, 2011, 04:27:31 PM

two different 2 and a half mile novice chases is totally unecssary, 3 novice hurdles and 4 novice chases completely dilutes the qulaity of racing, given aintree has 2m4f races in its festival as well. Would like to see a decrease of races at chelternham, the thursday especially is dour

beer baron · January 09, 2011, 01:49:55 PM

Holy god what was Timmy Murphy at on Jessies dream

the greatest jockey · January 09, 2011, 02:33:48 PM

poor from murphy, townend gave that horse a dream ride

Donnellys Hollow · January 09, 2011, 05:23:59 PM

Very disappointing from Jessies Dream but the race looked like it could turn messy with the two NRs. Just from looking at the replay there, I'm not sure he was in love with the ground. He certainly didn't go through it as well as Magnanimity. He was also giving the winner 7lbs. Timmy is one of those jockeys that always looks to have more left in the tank than he actually has but I'm sure he still thought he'd win going down to the last. I suspect the horse might have been blinded a bit by the sun the way he jumped out to his right which cost him the race. The novice chase form is all over the place at the moment.

Looks like the 4yo bumper has thrown up a hugely promising horse again. Weld is a genius (greatest living trainer in the world IMO) and he looks like he has another fine bumper horse at Rosewell House. Disappointing to hear he'll probably go for the Kevin McManus race at Limerick instead of Cheltenham but with an eye to the future that might not be the worst decision in the world.

beer baron · January 10, 2011, 02:19:15 PM

Got word for Devon native 4.15 taunton,won't be throwing the life savings on it but could be worth a few pound e/w!

TacadoirArdMhacha · January 10, 2011, 04:23:49 PM

Quote from: beer baron on January 10, 2011, 02:19:15 PM
Got word for Devon native 4.15 taunton,won't be throwing the life savings on it but could be worth a few pound e/w!

Good each way shout though unfortunately I didn't got on until it was 4/1 so no profit for me. Was 13/2 with Corals earlier. My own fault for procrastinating.

illdecide · January 10, 2011, 04:32:59 PM

Quote from: TacadoirArdMhacha on January 10, 2011, 04:23:49 PM
Quote from: beer baron on January 10, 2011, 02:19:15 PM
Got word for Devon native 4.15 taunton,won't be throwing the life savings on it but could be worth a few pound e/w!

Good each way shout though unfortunately I didn't got on until it was 4/1 so no profit for me. Was 13/2 with Corals earlier. My own fault for procrastinating.

Me too, although i'm still not sure if i got on or not as i texted a well know bookie that used to be on this board 5 mins before the race and he didn't text me back...hope there was a delay in the text messages

beer baron · January 10, 2011, 04:35:50 PM

Got 6's so up a few quid but i don't think they'll be cancelling my account because of it

Donnellys Hollow · January 11, 2011, 11:46:20 PM

Dunguib set to take on Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown rather than having a canter round Naas on Saturday.

I'm tempted to have a few quid on for the Stayers Hurdle because I suspect Hurricane Fly will easily outspeed him and they might be tempted to step him up in trip instead of trying to sneak a place in the Champion Hurdle. His pedigree says three miles rather than two. He's by Presenting - the same sire as Denman and War Of Attrition. His dam Edermine Berry won over 2m6 for Philip Rothwell at Downpatrick and her half brother (Cruise The Fairway) was a decent staying handicap chaser for Brendan Powell in England.

It's a long shot but I think 3 miles will eventually be his optimum trip and his jumping would be under less pressure due to the more sedate pace they go over 24 furlongs.

Something has to beat that Big Bucks sooner or later! I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if DK threw a spanner in the works in the next few weeks and announced that Rite Of Passage will run in the Stayers at Cheltenham.