The Horse racing thread

[Minder]

no winners today lads?

Had a double on 3.45 Southwell,- Madame Elizabeth (15/8) and 4.15 Southwell - Exulto (6/4).

[Donnellys Hollow]

Just wait for St Nick on Saturday lads. Nice bit of rain forecast which should leave the ground perfect for him. Coolmore have obviously given the nod to Mike Dillon because Ladbrokes are shortest price at the moment.

[RealSpiritof98]

Some favourates getting turned over this evening

4 for a bit of Craic

Blue eyed Eliose 8.10 AS
Jake the Snake 9.10 AS
Ring Street Rollar7.55 Kelso
Nipper Niall 8.25 k

[boojangles]

Just wait for St Nick on Saturday lads. Nice bit of rain forecast which should leave the ground perfect for him. Coolmore have obviously given the nod to Mike Dillon because Ladbrokes are shortest price at the moment.

That will do for me.Funny its only last week somebody said to me about the Ladbrokes/Coolmore connection. Who's this Mike Dillon?
Betfair is giving 2.56 at the mo. 6/4 is the best anywhere else which I will take in the morning.

[Donnellys Hollow]

Dillon is Ladbrokes PR director. He's been close friends with Magnier and Michael Tabor for years. He was also Alex Ferguson's racing manager before the dispute over The Rock and he sided with the Coolmore boys in that case. Very shrewd judge and always visible around the Curragh on any of the big days during the summer. Generally, when Ladbrokes are ducking one of Aidan's, it's time to get on!

I can't believe some of the reasons people are offering for taking St Nick on.

Montjeu has never had a 3yo+ Group 1 winner over a mile: How many Montjeu's showed the turn of foot that SNA showed at Doncaster though? Breeding is not an exact science and there are always anomalies. Cork All Star was bred to be a 6F sprinter and he won a Cheltenham bumper!

Montjeu's are better with cut in the ground: Most Montjeu's handle an ease but most of his progeny are very versatile as regards the ground. Just look at Hurricane Fly last Friday.

Didn't run in the recognised Guineas trials as a 2yo (National Stakes 7F or Dewhurst 7F): The RP Trophy has not been a great source of milers down the years but that won't put me off. I don't buy this thinking that a horse that wins over a mile as a 2yo will lack the speed as a 3yo colt to win a Guineas. He won the Beresford over a mile at the Curragh last year and the horse that won the Beresford in 2008 was none other than Sea The Stars.

Aidan O'Brien's horses are not in great form: That is by design rather than by accident. Anything Aidan usually runs over here in April/early-May generally has been left short at home and needs the racecourse experience to sharpen them up (e.g. Fame And Glory at the Curragh last month). People are clutching at straws if they think SNA will need the run on Saturday though. Coolmore will have hit the jackpot if they get a son of Montjeu to win a classic over a mile and I can't believe for one second that they'll be using Newmarket as a prep for Epsom. He'll be fully tuned up for Sunday and I doubt Johnny will be holding anything back.

Given that his nearest market rival is a horse he beat four lengths at Doncaster under a hands and heels ride, there's probably still some value left in that 6/4. I'm lucky enough to be on at 14s for Epsom but I couldn't resist having a wedge of my Punchestown profits on him for Newmarket. It'll be a long sad weekend if he gets beat!

[Hardy]

DH – as a stats man rather than a form man, like yourself, I have a couple of reasons to oppose SNA. Only one favourite has won since 1993 and a number of them have been as hot as SNA. Of horses that won a group one race as a 2-y-o, only two have won the guineas since 1999.

It's hard to make sense of that second stat, but taking the two in combination might explain why it's so hard to predict 3-y-o performance from 2-y-o form. A theory might be that juveniles progress at different rates and the ones that are advanced at a young age have less room for further development, while those that mature later can catch up to an unexpected extent.

It might be whistling past the graveyard, but I'm relying on that theory to justify my e.w. selection, who ticks the boxes for the profile of guineas winners in the last 15 years.

[Oak Leafer]

Very late lads im sorry....

5.15 Tipp Night Spark

[Candyman]

Very late lads im sorry....

5.15 Tipp Night Spark

Class act!! 

[sammymaguire]

Very late lads im sorry....

5.15 Tipp Night Spark

I thought some of my info was bad  , a 9/4 fav pulled up (obviously something gone badly wrong)

[Candyman]

Sammy you still reckon SNA is the boyo for this weekend? what about the other race, who's your pick?
(Not that i EVER follow you) 

[sammymaguire]

Sammy you still reckon SNA is the boyo for this weekend? what about the other race, who's your pick?
(Not that i EVER follow you) 

I generally do not oppose DH but Dick Turpin might be a sneaky e/w option   

[beer baron]

kaitlins joy is fancied to win 7.30 at cork

[beer baron]

The divil wouldn't go into the stall!

[sammymaguire]

decent run from dick turpin. golden kite fancied in the 7.05 at kilbeggan 4/1, best go e/w just in case

sorry lads 

[Donnellys Hollow]

I read that race completely wrong I have to admit. SNA just never seemed to travel with the same fluency he did at Doncaster. The faster ground is the only reason I can come up with to explain that because he looked plenty fit enough in the paddock beforehand.

I wouldn't write him off for Epsom just yet. I can see him going off a New Approach-esque price and making the frame because on breeding he should improve for 12 furlongs. A freak he ain't though. Just goes to show how special Sea The Stars was last year.