The Horse racing thread

[DennistheMenace]

The Fly is getting older and with Ruby choosing to ride Faugheen, Jetzi winning last year and The New One perceived the be unlucky coming 3rd in last years race. However I still think there is value in Hurricane Fly at 8 or 9/1

[illdecide]

I watched a programme last week (think it may have been the Channel Four Racing) and a guy there tipped one horse for today and it was Very Wood in the 2nd last race, its currently at 4/1.

[charlieTully]

Douvan to get the bookies off to a great start that's my first Premonition of the week.

A shit load of multiple bets will be down the pan if your correct and I strongly suspect you are. Shaneshill ew for me.

[Sea The Stars]

For the horse racing lads on here - if you were to back one horse at Cheltenham this week, who would it be?

Zarkandar

[Sea The Stars]

Supreme - Usual Supreme story, competitive field full of promising horses with one horse being one of the punters bankers of Day One. Douvan only won the two races, both at tracks very different to Cheltenham although he did beat another who opposes him today in Sizing John, a good winner of a weak novice hurdle at Christmas (Nichols Canyon fell, McKinley injured). Not for me - too short, hasn't done enough to-date to justify his price, could well be the superstar but was in the Allez Colombieries shadow before that one died and interstingly the comparisons with Champagne Fever and Vautour are slightly misplaced as both of those NH bred, future staying chasers, this one is a flat bred speed merchant if anything. L'Ami Serge again not for me hasn't done enough or beaten enough to justify his price. Two for me are Tell Us More and Sizing John. Tell Us More looks very impressive winning back a few months ago and he jumped superbly well at Naas before either failing to get home or finding nothing off the bridle. Could well be given the Scorpion connection he's not genuine but he'll travel and jump well so I could see him getting into contention but maybe not seeing it out. Sizing John interestingly Jonny Burke does not think he was himself when losing to Douvan. He won a G1 since and comes here fresh. A leading Irish hope outside the Mullins batallion. Not sure Jollyallan jumps well enough by the way.

[Sea The Stars]

Arkle - Un De Sceaux I can't add anything to the popular narrative surrounding this one. He's as exciting as you get but it's heart in the mouth stuff. He jumps so fast and so well and so accurately but he leaves himself so little room for error. If you weren't a horse racing follower you might get confused as one expert might tell you he's a brilliant jumper - another might say he could fall. In my opinion both are right. There is e/w value in the field though and I'll start by nominating Clarcam who is 2112 this season. He was impressive turning the form around with Vautour at Christmas, he jumps well and he has good Festival form from last year despite falling. Slight worry that he's a bit younger than everything else. I think he can get closer to Un De Sceaux in a bigger field with Un De Sceaux does not have such an easy time dictating plus the ground is better. Vibrato Valtat has been consistent but whatever it is about him, he has not really caught anyone's imagination. The reality is he's done anything but he faces a  stiff task against the Irish horses another of whom is Smashing already well beaten this season by Un De Sceaux. Josses Hill cannot win jumping the way he has so far and one would eyecatching one at a big price is Sail By The Sea who I only have come across in the last day or two but catches my eye due to the similarities with last year's winner. There's a whole pile of horses who'll be racing for second but if anything did happen Un De Sceaux, I'd go for Clarcam.

[Sea The Stars]

Champion - Supposedly a 4 horse race I'm actually coming round to the idea of Kitten Rock or Arctic Fire getting into contention both of whom improving and probably unexposed. Assuming it does turn out to be a 4 horse race, the first one of the bunch I'll rule out is Jezki who has not reproduced his best form this season. My thinking is everything went his way last year, opposition falling or getting hampered or pulling too hard. Maybe the pace won't be as frenetic today and with conditions maybe not as optimal as last year, I'll look elsewhere. Hurricane Fly is a great warrior. Age is only a number - and he's looked as good as ever this year. A serious horse and forever a champion, I'd love to see him do it but the old adage, heart vs head thing, heart says yes he can win, head is saying otherwise. Faugheen is the most likely winner even if he hasn't beaten much. His most impressive win to-date was Punchestown last year and that's the reason he's hurdling this season and that's the reason he's here. He has jumping issues but he overcame them last year and he looks very strong. At the prices though, I marginally favour The New One. I think he has more in his favour today than all season, faster ground, back at Cheltenham, the smaller field and medium to fast pace should allow his jockey some room for manouevre. If he can overcome his jumping difficulties and get to the last in contention I think he'll finish very fast up the hill and win.

[beer baron]

For the horse racing lads on here - if you were to back one horse at Cheltenham this week, who would it be?

Apache Stronghold e/w on Thursday in the JLT. He'll probably only be about 6/1 but still worth the e/w as i'd be very shocked if he's not 1st 3.

[Sea The Stars]

Mares - Natural punters instinct in me is to take on Annie Power basically because she's too short and hasn't been seen in a year. Of course the ratings would say I'm mad, if I recall she has 7-8lbs for something like that in hand of her nearest rival, her stablemate and close to 20lbs ahead of many of her rivals. There's very little in the betting to oppose her with and it'll be a small e/w for me on the off chance she's isn't as good as the brilliant mare last year. Alan King runs two L'unique and The Pirates Queen - quick look through the form show both are decent but so is Carole's Spirit for former jockey Robbie Walford. First time blinkers, she's stays well and has a 5lb swing with another rival roday Bitofapuzzle, so perhaps a bit of e/w value. Very hard though when you haven't been following the mares races closely all season and where Annie Power and perhaps Glens Melody look the only genuine G1 horses on form so far.

[Brick Tamlin]

1:30 - Tell Us More (Sizing John)
2:05 - Three Kingdoms (Court Minstrel)
2:40 - Grand Gesture
3:20 - Jezki (The New One)
4:00 - Glen's Melody
4:40 - Very Wood
5:15 - Generous Ransom

[oakleaflad]

Any streams?

[beer baron]

Had buttons on the Tom George horse Some plan e/w here, i'm feeling brave 

[beer baron]

Hype justified. Hell of an animal to finish like that after pulling early.

[Hardy]

Off to a good start and it's reassuring for anyone backing the Irish strength that the first head-to-head shows the Irish form up well. 1-2-3.

[screenexile]

Hype justified. Hell of an animal to finish like that after pulling early.

Douvan is a serious horse won that really well coming into the finish. Ruby handled him to perfection as well!