Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Smokin Joe

Quote from: omaghjoe on October 17, 2018, 07:15:20 AM
and theres no way the brexiteers group will support anything less than Canada..

I guess that's where we disagree.  When it comes down to it I don't think any of the ERG will want a "No Deal" Brexit (and all that it ensues) pinned on them; despite their current rhetoric.

seafoid

Quote from: Smokin Joe on October 17, 2018, 06:51:46 AM
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

Markets can't price asymmetric stuff like Brexit.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

bennydorano

I would have thought it's one part of Brexit that would be pretty straightforward to predict - no deal will likely cause parity with the € and a good deal for the UK will see Sterling head back to 1.20 during 2019.

seafoid

Quote from: bennydorano on October 17, 2018, 09:33:38 AM
I would have thought it's one part of Brexit that would be pretty straightforward to predict - no deal will likely cause parity with the € and a good deal for the UK will see Sterling head back to 1.20 during 2019.
You would have to assign probabilities to each outcome.
They can't - they got Trump 2016 and brexit 2016 very wrong as well
One reason is because the market is a herd and herds need simplicity to function.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

armaghniac

The ball is still in play, talk of people asking for an extension now, so Sterling is holding up.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

mouview

Quote from: Smokin Joe on October 17, 2018, 06:51:46 AM
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

This supposes that Big Business knows more about the Brexit negotiations than the politicians involved. Brexit is not logical, pragmatic or cognizant of commercial concerns. It is as much an emotional and narrow cultural movement where hard Brexiteers / ERG / DUP are intent on leaving the EU at all costs and to hell with any consequences. It has been said of them that it's better to reign in hell than serve in heaven. Or "f**k business" :- Boris Johnson.

seafoid

Quote from: mouview on October 17, 2018, 10:04:08 AM
Quote from: Smokin Joe on October 17, 2018, 06:51:46 AM
For anyone who doubts that a deal either hasn't been done, or is close to being done, how do you explain the fact that sterling barely moved on Sunday evening after the apparent fall out?

The consensus is that GBP will go to about 1.20 vs USD and parity to the Euro if there is No Deal.  So, the fact that, despite all the drama of Sunday we are still at 1.31 and 1.12 ish is all I need to be fairly sure that this is all part of a choreographed play to ensure that we are brought right to the wire in order to let the Brexiteers see that No Deal is the only other alternative.  I don't think any of the Brexiteers wants a No Deal pinned on them as it will see the UK run out of radiation for Cancer patients and insulin within weeks.

This supposes that Big Business knows more about the Brexit negotiations than the politicians involved. Brexit is not logical, pragmatic or cognizant of commercial concerns. It is as much an emotional and narrow cultural movement where hard Brexiteers / ERG / DUP are intent on leaving the EU at all costs and to hell with any consequences. It has been said of them that it's better to reign in hell than serve in heaven. Or "f**k business" :- Boris Johnson.
Brexit is economic though. It is neo Victorian. Strip out environmental protection and workers rights so the rich get richer. They haven't mentioned workhouses but I bet the ESG is working on a white paper
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU


seafoid

The French government has produced guidelines on procedure in case there is a hard Brexit
Ordinary Brits living on the continent will suffer if the DUP gets its way. Shower of orange ***s

https://twitter.com/kimwillsher1/status/1052515979866099712

Stephen Rea was interviewed recently and he said "Unionists were, and still are, cut off, not just from Catholics, but from the world. It's pure isolation. And it is so drummed into the young that they cannot let go of these views"
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

WT4E

Don't you know rightly all those bitter DUPers will have their Irish Passports got already... sure wasnt the south passport office flat out after the brexit vote with Arlene and all her buddies getting their wee passports!

armaghniac

If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

Quote from: armaghniac on October 17, 2018, 05:06:17 PM
People in Britain being to realise they were conned
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brits-believe-voting-for-brexit-was-wrong-in-hindsight-poll-shows-a3963891.html
From the comments

« But anyway Britain has handed itself lock, stock and barrel into the hands of ideological fanatics who would see the country burn to get the wet dream upon which they have built their careers. The result of allowing these clowns to make urn their Dad's Army delusion into national policy will be humiliation and ignominy and reality trashes fantasy »
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

naka

See Jamie Bryson threatening violence, he doesn't realise that they are no longer the master race,
Times they are a changing.

Jeepers Creepers

Quote from: naka on October 17, 2018, 09:44:48 PM
See Jamie Bryson threatening violence, he doesn't realise that they are no longer the master race,
Times they are a changing.

Who are they going to aim their anger? DUP or the British govt ?

imtommygunn

The DUP voted with the tories this evening. I don't like that :( (Though it was 6 and not 10).