China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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dublin7

Cases under 1,000 today in the south for the first time in a long time. It's not a great achievement, but it's progress.

Unfortunately there were 101 deaths, the youngest of which was only 19.

Gmac

Here is a snapshot of San Mateo county where I live in California 760k population been under mask mandate since June no bars open since March  mostly outdoor dining  on and off.
Deaths
0-9. 0
10-19. 0
20-29.  0
30-39.   1
40-49.   10
50-59.   21
60-69.   55
70-79.   77
80-89.   125
90+.     106
Total deaths 395.  The bottom line is get everyone over 60 vaccinated ASAP and most of this goes away

Angelo

Quote from: dublin7 on February 02, 2021, 07:20:00 PM
Cases under 1,000 today in the south for the first time in a long time. It's not a great achievement, but it's progress.

Unfortunately there were 101 deaths, the youngest of which was only 19.

Was the 19 year old one the 33% who picked it up in hospital I'd like to know.

Absolutely disgraceful if so.
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Blowitupref

Quote from: dublin7 on February 02, 2021, 07:20:00 PM
Cases under 1,000 today in the south for the first time in a long time. It's not a great achievement, but it's progress.

Unfortunately there were 101 deaths, the youngest of which was only 19.
Was 928 cases last Tuesday.

Deaths reported in a simliar way the last few weeks.

Sunday 17/1 - 13
Monday 18/1 - 8
Tuesday 19/1 - 93

Total 114


Sunday 24/1 - 23
Monday 25/1 - 7
Tuesday 26/1 - 90

Total 120

Sunday 31/1 - 15
Monday 1/2 - 10
Tuesday 2/2 - 101

Total 126
Is the ref going to finally blow his whistle?... No, he's going to blow his nose

dublin7

Quote from: Blowitupref on February 02, 2021, 07:43:16 PM
Quote from: dublin7 on February 02, 2021, 07:20:00 PM
Cases under 1,000 today in the south for the first time in a long time. It's not a great achievement, but it's progress.

Unfortunately there were 101 deaths, the youngest of which was only 19.
Was 928 cases last Tuesday.

Deaths reported in a simliar way the last few weeks.

Sunday 17/1 - 13
Monday 18/1 - 8
Tuesday 19/1 - 93

Total 114


Sunday 24/1 - 23
Monday 25/1 - 7
Tuesday 26/1 - 90

Total 120

Sunday 31/1 - 15
Monday 1/2 - 10
Tuesday 2/2 - 101

Total 126
I missed that. You would think the increase in deaths is due to the big increase in hospitalisation numbers over the last few weeks. Hopefully the case numbers continue to trend downwards over the next few weeks as vaccinations are delivered.

I read at the weekend that the Gardai had to be called to Wexford hospital last week as patients who had been isolated in the wards were leaving the wards and going outside for cigarettes. When you read stories like that and think of the pressure hospital staff are under you wonder do these morons have any concern for anyone but themselves

seafoid


https://www.ft.com/content/595e4958-55e7-45ae-87ed-faa7f08c1c98

Cambridge university scientists have run preliminary laboratory tests on B.1.1.7 virus with the added mutation. They found that antibodies extracted from the blood of people who had received the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine were only one-tenth as effective at neutralising the virus that had the E484K mutation as they were at neutralising the virus that did not have the mutation.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Ed Ricketts

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 07:01:29 PM
50% of Free State deaths in the nursing homes.

Would anyone care to tell me what the life expectancy is for a patient that enters a nursing home? I would suspect quite a sizable amount would be doing well to see a year out in any case.

Not sure about the south but in the UK, a 75 year old can expect to live for another 12-13 years on average. An 85 year old can expect to live for another 6-7 years, again, on average.

Even allowing for nursing home residents being in poorer health than the general population, that's still a lot of years to write off just so that everyone else can get back down to the shops.
Doc would listen to any kind of nonsense and change it for you to a kind of wisdom.

Angelo

Quote from: Ed Ricketts on February 02, 2021, 08:21:35 PM
Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 07:01:29 PM
50% of Free State deaths in the nursing homes.

Would anyone care to tell me what the life expectancy is for a patient that enters a nursing home? I would suspect quite a sizable amount would be doing well to see a year out in any case.

Not sure about the south but in the UK, a 75 year old can expect to live for another 12-13 years on average. An 85 year old can expect to live for another 6-7 years, again, on average.

Even allowing for nursing home residents being in poorer health than the general population, that's still a lot of years to write off just so that everyone else can get back down to the shops.

Thanks for answering a different question than the one I asked.

The question I asked was:

What is the average life expectancy for a person once they enter a nursing home?

This would tend to point to it being 12 months:

https://www.bgs.org.uk/resources/end-of-life-care-in-frailty-care-homes

The average life expectancy in UK care homes is 24 months for care homes without nursing and 12 months for care homes with nursing. This belies a much more complex picture, where some residents enter a home with one or more rapidly deteriorating medical conditions. Many of this group die shortly after admission, while another group of residents live in care homes for much longer. It follows that all care home residents should be considered for end of life care, but it should not be taken for granted that all will need it straight away.
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Angelo

Quote from: dublin7 on February 02, 2021, 07:51:58 PM
Quote from: Blowitupref on February 02, 2021, 07:43:16 PM
Quote from: dublin7 on February 02, 2021, 07:20:00 PM
Cases under 1,000 today in the south for the first time in a long time. It's not a great achievement, but it's progress.

Unfortunately there were 101 deaths, the youngest of which was only 19.
Was 928 cases last Tuesday.

Deaths reported in a simliar way the last few weeks.

Sunday 17/1 - 13
Monday 18/1 - 8
Tuesday 19/1 - 93

Total 114


Sunday 24/1 - 23
Monday 25/1 - 7
Tuesday 26/1 - 90

Total 120

Sunday 31/1 - 15
Monday 1/2 - 10
Tuesday 2/2 - 101

Total 126
I missed that. You would think the increase in deaths is due to the big increase in hospitalisation numbers over the last few weeks. Hopefully the case numbers continue to trend downwards over the next few weeks as vaccinations are delivered.

I read at the weekend that the Gardai had to be called to Wexford hospital last week as patients who had been isolated in the wards were leaving the wards and going outside for cigarettes. When you read stories like that and think of the pressure hospital staff are under you wonder do these morons have any concern for anyone but themselves

It's to do with outbreaks in nursing homes, that was reported during the week that most cases have been in the over 80s age group. But hey ignore the data.
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Ed Ricketts

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 08:29:58 PM

Thanks for answering a different question than the one I asked.

The question I asked was:

What is the average life expectancy for a person once they enter a nursing home?

This would tend to point to it being 12 months:

https://www.bgs.org.uk/resources/end-of-life-care-in-frailty-care-homes

The average life expectancy in UK care homes is 24 months for care homes without nursing and 12 months for care homes with nursing. This belies a much more complex picture, where some residents enter a home with one or more rapidly deteriorating medical conditions. Many of this group die shortly after admission, while another group of residents live in care homes for much longer. It follows that all care home residents should be considered for end of life care, but it should not be taken for granted that all will need it straight away.

The figures I offered were average life expectancy. For the general population, though, as the ONS does not provide statistics on care home residents. There are various estimates out there on that - here's one that has it at up to 30 months for an 85 year old entering care; here's one that has the average stay at 26 months. Nothing very definitive.

Life expectancy is longer at advanced ages than most realise, and lost years are lost years regardless of when they occur. That's the point. It's not a healthy society that considers the option of sacrificing the elderly and vulnerable so that the rest are not inconvenienced.
Doc would listen to any kind of nonsense and change it for you to a kind of wisdom.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: seafoid on February 02, 2021, 08:06:46 PM

https://www.ft.com/content/595e4958-55e7-45ae-87ed-faa7f08c1c98

Cambridge university scientists have run preliminary laboratory tests on B.1.1.7 virus with the added mutation. They found that antibodies extracted from the blood of people who had received the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine were only one-tenth as effective at neutralising the virus that had the E484K mutation as they were at neutralising the virus that did not have the mutation.

Dunno if I trust the Financial Times' reporting on it - but anyway.

They've f**ked around with half measures for so long that vaccine escape is almost inevitable due to the large pool of infected people offering a great breeding ground for mutations. Add in the stupid that won't get the vaccination and its even worse.


Reading about Sputnik today - the Russian vaccination scheme may end up being best of all as it uses two slight variants of vaccine, attacking along slightly different vectors and hopefully allowing greater persistence in the face of mutation. Russian scientists and engineers were always a very good mix of smart and pragmatic.
i usse an speelchekor

Angelo

Quote from: Ed Ricketts on February 02, 2021, 09:11:58 PM
Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 08:29:58 PM

Thanks for answering a different question than the one I asked.

The question I asked was:

What is the average life expectancy for a person once they enter a nursing home?

This would tend to point to it being 12 months:

https://www.bgs.org.uk/resources/end-of-life-care-in-frailty-care-homes

The average life expectancy in UK care homes is 24 months for care homes without nursing and 12 months for care homes with nursing. This belies a much more complex picture, where some residents enter a home with one or more rapidly deteriorating medical conditions. Many of this group die shortly after admission, while another group of residents live in care homes for much longer. It follows that all care home residents should be considered for end of life care, but it should not be taken for granted that all will need it straight away.

The figures I offered were average life expectancy. For the general population, though, as the ONS does not provide statistics on care home residents. There are various estimates out there on that - here's one that has it at up to 30 months for an 85 year old entering care; here's one that has the average stay at 26 months. Nothing very definitive.

Life expectancy is longer at advanced ages than most realise, and lost years are lost years regardless of when they occur. That's the point. It's not a healthy society that considers the option of sacrificing the elderly and vulnerable so that the rest are not inconvenienced.

Yeah, I asked a question and you went and answered one I didn't ask.

I was just clarifying that your answer has zero to do with the question I posed.

The AVERAGE life expectancy for patients admitted to nursing homes is 12 months according to the report I put up there. In the south they are reporting that half of their total deaths are nursing home patients, people who probably have an average life expectancy of 12 months.
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bennydorano

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-sustained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval

Including - Analyses of PCR positive swabs in UK population suggests vaccine may have substantial effect on transmission of the virus with 67% reduction in positive swabs among those vaccinated

Ed Ricketts

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 09:23:45 PM
Yeah, I asked a question and you went and answered one I didn't ask.

I was just clarifying that your answer has zero to do with the question I posed.
Not sure what you think you read, but if you return to it you'll see that I never offered an answer. I offered information from published figures that could be used to inform a best estimate.

Your question cannot be answered definitively because the figures you want are not published, therefore estimations have to be made from available information.

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 09:23:45 PM
The AVERAGE life expectancy for patients admitted to nursing homes is 12 months according to the report I put up there.
And other reports suggest differently, because the figures are not published and each report is estimating and extrapolating from various disparate sources.

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 09:23:45 PMIn the south they are reporting that half of their total deaths are nursing home patients, people who probably have an average life expectancy of 12 months.

And? Regardless of whether the answer to your original question is 12 months or 12 years, where does this train of thought lead?
Doc would listen to any kind of nonsense and change it for you to a kind of wisdom.

Angelo

Quote from: Ed Ricketts on February 02, 2021, 11:17:57 PM
Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 09:23:45 PM
Yeah, I asked a question and you went and answered one I didn't ask.

I was just clarifying that your answer has zero to do with the question I posed.
Not sure what you think you read, but if you return to it you'll see that I never offered an answer. I offered information from published figures that could be used to inform a best estimate.

Your question cannot be answered definitively because the figures you want are not published, therefore estimations have to be made from available information.

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 09:23:45 PM
The AVERAGE life expectancy for patients admitted to nursing homes is 12 months according to the report I put up there.
And other reports suggest differently, because the figures are not published and each report is estimating and extrapolating from various disparate sources.

Quote from: Angelo on February 02, 2021, 09:23:45 PMIn the south they are reporting that half of their total deaths are nursing home patients, people who probably have an average life expectancy of 12 months.

And? Regardless of whether the answer to your original question is 12 months or 12 years, where does this train of thought lead?

The question I asked was what was the average life expectancy from when a person enters a nursing home. The question is quite clear, there is little ambiguity in it. I went and found out the answer too, linked in the report - its 12 months. You have posted a series of long meandering posts that cover anything but the question asked.

Average = cumulative total divided by number of figures
Life expectancy = how long they will live for
When they go into the nursing home = as it says

Average life expectancy when they go into a nursing home.

I didn't ask for how long or how short they could live for, I asked for the average life expectancy. Maybe try and read more carefully next time.
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