A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[armaghniac]

Correct.  As the public sector is the major employer the tax revenue is simply recycled.  The pay bill for the public sector must be huge.

My question was, what exactly do these people do extra that other places do not have?

Then there is the NHS, which could never be replicated or maintained in a UI situation given its scope and service provision and that does not begin to look at the cost of the social care provision we currently have regardless of how bad we might consider it to be.

Health is only one part of expenditure, it is the ability to afford the overall envelope that is the problem, not the details of one thing or the other.

[vallankumous]

My question was, what exactly do these people do extra that other places do not have?

We are a post conflict statelet governed by Local Authorities, the GFA, Cross Community Boards,Cross Border Bodies, The Assembly, West Minster and the EU. There's a lot of paper work to get through.

[Take Your Points]

Correct.  As the public sector is the major employer the tax revenue is simply recycled.  The pay bill for the public sector must be huge.

My question was, what exactly do these people do extra that other places do not have?

Then there is the NHS, which could never be replicated or maintained in a UI situation given its scope and service provision and that does not begin to look at the cost of the social care provision we currently have regardless of how bad we might consider it to be.

Health is only one part of expenditure, it is the ability to afford the overall envelope that is the problem, not the details of one thing or the other.

We have 1.8 million people and we have three layers of government, local councils, local assembly, UK parliament in any other UK region this would be reduced to 2 layers, councils and parliament.  Taking just two areas of health and education you can see complexities:

In health, we have 6 health trusts with an overarching board (5 regions and one for ambulance service) and then a Dept of Health in Stormont.

In education, we have had some reduction but this hasn't made a huge difference. Dept of Education oversees Education Authority which oversees all controlled schools and maintained schools but CCMS still is the employing authority for Catholic maintained schools.  Dept of Education still administers voluntary grammars and integrated schools.

In GB a metropolitan council would run everything we have in N.Ireland for even more people, e.g. Manchester 2.6m people.

[vallankumous]

In GB a metropolitan council would run everything we have in N.Ireland for even more people, e.g. Manchester 2.6m people.

That stat need more detail to be compared. Geography, demographics, industry etc

For example, it's cheaper and more streamlined having 1000 people working in a bank than 1000 farmers on their own farms.

[seafoid]

According to the Irish Times, Fianna Fail are working on a plan for a United Ireland.

[Hardy]

So is Theresa May. She calls it Brexit.

[Rossfan]

According to the Irish Times, Fianna Fail are working on a plan for a United Ireland.

Merge with the DUP and fill all their friends'  pockets??

[yellowcard]

So is Theresa May. She calls it Brexit.

The DUP will rue the day that they campaigned in favour of Brexit as now we learn today that another Scottish independence referendum has been called. Which would only highlight the idiocy of partition in the north. It's high time that the Irish government and political class begun to present a clear vision to the people of how a reunified country will function. Enda Kenny has shown little leadership on this issue.

[LCohen]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

[armaghniac]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

A lot of this depends on the nature of the businesses concerned, aggregates are not much use in explaining things.

[seafoid]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

standard of living will be the deciding factor

[LCohen]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

standard of living will be the deciding factor

Hard to see how that is going to point towards a UI vote

[LCohen]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

A lot of this depends on the nature of the businesses concerned, aggregates are not much use in explaining things.

You are correct to look for the detail and no doubt it will come out. I don't have a precise breakdown of NI trade with the EU (excluding current U.K. Trade) and the same detail of trade with the rest of the UK but the chances of the split of the 2 trades overcoming the fact that one is more than double the other is very low indeed. And again this is before the subventions. Taking the 2 combined the chances of a UI within the EU being a better bet for NI than being in the UK look to be precisely Zero. But I'm prejudging the detail. Bring them on

[seafoid]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

Trade is just one aspect.
Border areas should see economic development. The money from London will probably be cut. Sterling will probably fall.


A lot of this depends on the nature of the businesses concerned, aggregates are not much use in explaining things.

You are correct to look for the detail and no doubt it will come out. I don't have a precise breakdown of NI trade with the EU (excluding current U.K. Trade) and the same detail of trade with the rest of the UK but the chances of the split of the 2 trades overcoming the fact that one is more than double the other. And again this before the subventions. Taking the 2 combined the chances of a UI within the EU being a better bet for NI than being in the UK look to be precisely Zero. But I'm prejudging the detail. Bring them on

[seafoid]

The link between a United Ireland and brexit needs to be explained. Presumably everyone accepts that there are segments of the NI electorate that are firmly in the UI or UK camps and will not be swayed by rational economic arguments. I do not doubt that brexit will be harmful to the NI economy. But for it to play a part in convincing the floating voter to switch from UK to UI then someone is going to have to make the argument that leaving a free trading area that you export £14 Bn to to rejoin a trading area that you export half as much to isn't going to harm the NI economy. Good luck to them. And that's before we get into the subvention

standard of living will be the deciding factor

Hard to see how that is going to point towards a UI vote

Wait until the doom loop of Brexit, Sterling,  the UK trade deficit, budget deficit and productivity hits.
The UK economy is running on fumes.