Brexit.

[trailer]

Sinn Fein and the DUP. Working for the people of the North on Brexit. Delivering, accountable.

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/key-foster-mcguinness-brexit-letter-was-actually-written-by-civil-servants-1-8816000


The pinnacle of the DUP-Sinn Fein Executive's efforts to present a united front on how Brexit should be handled was actually overwhelmingly – and perhaps exclusively – the work of civil servants, new material reveals. In August 2016 the then first and deputy first ministers wrote to the prime minister to set out their agreed priorities for the Brexit process. Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness's letter was presented as a significant development and has since been cited by those who defend the previous Stormont regime as an example of how opposing sides could pragmatically agree to work together. However, material released under the Freedom of Information Act shows no evidence that Mrs Foster, Mr McGuinness or any of their political advisors played any role in the letter beyond requesting it at a meeting which was not minuted and then the ministers putting their signatures to the letter.

Given the culture of verbal government within Stormont where certain communications were deliberately not written down to avoid the public ever getting to see what went on, it is possible that either the ministers or their special advisors (spads) were more involved but did not want that to be known. However, the material released suggests that three senior civil servants were responsible for the overwhelming bulk of the letter. The letter called for an open Irish border, the retention "as far as possible" of the current ease of cross-border trade, access to EU labour, consideration of the energy market and the preservation of farming subsidies and EU Peace funds. The first written mention of the letter came in a memo from the then head of the civil service, Sir Malcolm McKibbin, to Andrew McCormick, permanent secretary of the Department for the Economy, and David Sterling, permanent secretary of the Department of Finance.


The brief August 3 2016 memo was titled 'meeting with DUP/SF representatives' and said: "I had a meeting with Timothy Johnston and Aidan McAteer at which it was agreed that: Officials would prepare a letter from FM/dFM to the Prime Minister articulating the priorities that are emerging from the scoping exercise we are carrying out on the implementations of leaving the EU." Mr Johnston was the most senior DUP spad and is now the DUP's chief executive. Mr McAteer was barred by law from acting as a spad because of a serious criminal conviction. However, Sinn Fein circumvented the law by making him a 'super spad', putting him over the party's team of spads and ministers – something which civil servants agreed to, even though it was against the spirit of the law. Stormont Castle has not acknowledged the existence of minutes of the meeting between Sir Malcolm and the DUP and Sinn Fein spads, suggesting that no minutes of the meeting were taken. The following morning, Sir Malcolm emailed his two senior civil service colleagues with a draft of the letter which he had drawn up and asked them for any comments by lunch time. Three hours later Dr McCormick replied to say that he had discussed the issue with Mr Sterling and they had agreed a series of changes to the text. Mr Sterling felt it contained a section on agriculture which was "too long", something which "unbalances the overall thrust of the letter".

Five days later the amended letter was sent to the private secretaries of the first minister and the deputy first minister. Not a word of that letter was changed by the ministers or their spads before it was sent to Downing Street the following day.



Interesting line this...
Mr McAteer was barred by law from acting as a spad because of a serious criminal conviction. However, Sinn Fein circumvented the law by making him a 'super spad', putting him over the party's team of spads and ministers – something which civil servants agreed to, even though it was against the spirit of the law

[LCohen]

Likelihood of UK default running >95%. Show me the workings on that one?

Some serious questions need to be asked as to why international media are not covering this impending doom

You do realise the implications of a no deal exit?

Forget about trading under the WTO - as the UK won't have a tariff system set that isn't the (hideous) basic rates - that is basically stupid talk to fool stupid people. Industries simply would not be able to compete if they are handing over 20, 30, 40% of the final price in tariffs to the importing country. The UK cannot go tariff free as the wider connotations for that are also disastrous.

The media are not covering it because they are trying too hard to appear impartial - and they are also somewhat inept.

Some places have touched on it, here for instance, James O'Brien talking with Bryce Baschuk, Bloomberg's man on the WTO:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DIz9UTmMQk

I'm pretty certain that Brexit is a bad idea and that a no deal Brexit is an extreme version of this. But nobody knows what a no deal Brexit will really look like. For a start are we talking about leaving without a deal and then never getting a deal or getting a deal after leaving but then what would that deal look like and when would it be done. All valid questions that the Brexiteers got away without answering before the referendum and to a large degree are still getting away with. They should be hounded for answers even at this stage

I agree that WTO is a disaster if you are relying on it for a major part of your trade

[LCohen]

If there is no serious analysis to point to then what are the arguments based upon?

There will be no serious analyses as it is not something that (serious) people have seriously considered until the past few months.

Everything will be high level, large assumptions and hand waving. You wanting details that do not exist in any papers (and to a large extent, are going to be erroneous) is not really a viable pre-condition for discounting the high level back of an envelope numbers.

Your argument seems to be that Ireland cannot, will not and should not learn anything from Brexit. All sounds very BoJo

[grounded]

Sinn Fein and the DUP. Working for the people of the North on Brexit. Delivering, accountable.

https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/key-foster-mcguinness-brexit-letter-was-actually-written-by-civil-servants-1-8816000


The pinnacle of the DUP-Sinn Fein Executive's efforts to present a united front on how Brexit should be handled was actually overwhelmingly – and perhaps exclusively – the work of civil servants, new material reveals. In August 2016 the then first and deputy first ministers wrote to the prime minister to set out their agreed priorities for the Brexit process. Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness's letter was presented as a significant development and has since been cited by those who defend the previous Stormont regime as an example of how opposing sides could pragmatically agree to work together. However, material released under the Freedom of Information Act shows no evidence that Mrs Foster, Mr McGuinness or any of their political advisors played any role in the letter beyond requesting it at a meeting which was not minuted and then the ministers putting their signatures to the letter.

Given the culture of verbal government within Stormont where certain communications were deliberately not written down to avoid the public ever getting to see what went on, it is possible that either the ministers or their special advisors (spads) were more involved but did not want that to be known. However, the material released suggests that three senior civil servants were responsible for the overwhelming bulk of the letter. The letter called for an open Irish border, the retention "as far as possible" of the current ease of cross-border trade, access to EU labour, consideration of the energy market and the preservation of farming subsidies and EU Peace funds. The first written mention of the letter came in a memo from the then head of the civil service, Sir Malcolm McKibbin, to Andrew McCormick, permanent secretary of the Department for the Economy, and David Sterling, permanent secretary of the Department of Finance.


The brief August 3 2016 memo was titled 'meeting with DUP/SF representatives' and said: "I had a meeting with Timothy Johnston and Aidan McAteer at which it was agreed that: Officials would prepare a letter from FM/dFM to the Prime Minister articulating the priorities that are emerging from the scoping exercise we are carrying out on the implementations of leaving the EU." Mr Johnston was the most senior DUP spad and is now the DUP's chief executive. Mr McAteer was barred by law from acting as a spad because of a serious criminal conviction. However, Sinn Fein circumvented the law by making him a 'super spad', putting him over the party's team of spads and ministers – something which civil servants agreed to, even though it was against the spirit of the law. Stormont Castle has not acknowledged the existence of minutes of the meeting between Sir Malcolm and the DUP and Sinn Fein spads, suggesting that no minutes of the meeting were taken. The following morning, Sir Malcolm emailed his two senior civil service colleagues with a draft of the letter which he had drawn up and asked them for any comments by lunch time. Three hours later Dr McCormick replied to say that he had discussed the issue with Mr Sterling and they had agreed a series of changes to the text. Mr Sterling felt it contained a section on agriculture which was "too long", something which "unbalances the overall thrust of the letter".

Five days later the amended letter was sent to the private secretaries of the first minister and the deputy first minister. Not a word of that letter was changed by the ministers or their spads before it was sent to Downing Street the following day.



Interesting line this...
Mr McAteer was barred by law from acting as a spad because of a serious criminal conviction. However, Sinn Fein circumvented the law by making him a 'super spad', putting him over the party's team of spads and ministers – something which civil servants agreed to, even though it was against the spirit of the law

The spirit of the law is pretty much like a verbal agreement i.e. Not worth the paper it was not written on.

[LCohen]

The zero funding for NI was your figure. I quote it back to you and you disown it.

My bad for not being clear - I do mean this in the context of all the stupid wastage in NI.

So no more funding pissed away on "community organisations", services pared back far beyond absolute minimum.

For all intents and purposes, the public sector will collapse.

There would be an executive and a stormont because the GB government would never agree to their removal in a UI scenario

What is the basis for that assumption? That is far more far-fetched than anything I have talked about regarding roads, railways, even the UK default!

I don't believe there is anything in the GFA that insists on stormont remaining in event of UI. If there is a no-deal, and border poll resulting in UI, the least of the Brit's worries will be whether Stormont continues to exist or not!!!

GFA is an international agreement designed to last forever. That is why it was put into international law. In its simplest form in a UI scenario the governments of GB and RoI exchange roles as responsibilities switch. Everything else stays the same a new treaty was backed by both governments and it was passed by a majority of both communities in NI. That is what we signed up to - not a staging post to a UI. It's not that SF were or are honest with their electorate on

[LCohen]

Still plenty of room for civilised debate in the meantime eh??

Don't pre-condition your side of the debate with unrealistic daft expectations.

More BoJoisms

[LCohen]

Im sure McWilliams would be the first to issue the health warning that comes with using ROI GDP figures. Irish GDP figures are effectively meaningless and allow debt to earnings figures for ROI to be significantly understated. Radio 4's More Or Less programme did a brilliant deconstruction of this.

Of course he understands the difference, which is  why he did not use GDP but GNI* in the chart above.

I wouldn't underestimate the Brexit impact on ROI. The government is hardly relaxed about it.

I didn't say Brexit would not have an effect,  I said the ROI would recover. When you are growing t 5% pa you can take a knock.

I like you idea that restricted access to your main market us just an opportunity to send it to another market. This is the Brexiteer argument and it's idiotic. Ireland's main food export market is UK. If access to that market is restricted you can't just put the stuff on a boat to the continent and hope that the current suppliers to that market will push off

There is a specific opportunity in lamb which I mentioned as Britain exports it.
However, there is a general point, there is still a big market available, this is not the 1930s.

Don't underestimate the devastation to the RoI economy of another country undercutting it tax rate or if Trump actually did succeed in getting some of them to report more profits in the US

Trump's measures affect the Bahamas ectc more than Ireland. Of course there are threats, but prospects are infinitely better than for NI either way.

You are correct on GNI. There definitely was an earlier version of the report based upon GDP. But you posted the updated version and I stand corrected

Lamb is a tiny market. And a significant amount of lamb exported from RoI is imported from NI in the first place. And so will attract the duty

Trump is more interested in companies that countries. If a country is paying 3% and 2% in another he doesn't care. He just wants it collected in USA. And the pressure comes from more that just Trump and US.

If the EU asked for reform of ROI corporate tax as a condition as standing shoulder to shoulder on the back stop where would we all stand?

[LCohen]

There is an international definition but labour tried to amend it before adopting it

and rightly so!

Did you see what it says?

https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism

Contemporary examples of antisemitism in public life, the media, schools, the workplace, and in the religious sphere could, taking into account the overall context, include, but are not limited to:
- Drawing comparisons of contemporary Israeli policy to that of the Nazis.

The way Israel is behaving in the Gaza strip is comparable to the behaviour of the Nazis.


I have absolute no time for anyone having a go at someone for their race. But I do have a problem with people using race to justify actions.

To borrow and paraphrase from Martin Luther...

People should not be judged by the color of their skin or the background of their genes but by the content of their character.

On this we agree.

2 big things about anti Semitic non labour
1) it exists but it's not endemic
2) corbyn is vulnerable on the issue and so if you want to have a go at him it's a good fire to stoke

Corbyn is vulnerable because of platforms shared in the past. That for me is not something he should apologise for. He should not make statements today to pacify people that he does not agree with. The fact that he isn't bullied into this kind of thing is a big part of his appeal and credibility. But the shortcoming he must address is how real anti Semitism within the party is investigated, processed and punished. Labour have upped their game but not enough. The issue can be sorted quickly or allowed to linger. It's a no brainier

[LCohen]

Honda gonna close the Swindon plant.

Strong and Stable, eh Theresa?

Really not sure of the Honda link to Brexit. And there is no need to manufacture a link for there will be plenty of cases where the link is concrete.

[armaghniac]

Lamb is a tiny market.

All the same, it is an example of how outer parts of the country could adapt to the changed circumstances.
There is scope for other products also, the situation would not be great but not disastrous.

Trump is more interested in companies that countries. If a country is paying 3% and 2% in another he doesn't care. He just wants it collected in USA. And the pressure comes from more that just Trump and US.

Corporate tax evasion comes from these tax shelters like the Bahamas where no tax is paid. If companies pay tax in Ireland and paid tax in the US on the rest then there wouldn't be a major problem. This is beginning to happen, which has caused an increase in the Irish tax take.

[quote[ If the EU asked for reform of ROI corporate tax as a condition as standing shoulder to shoulder on the back stop where would we all stand?
[/quote]

Ireland can cope with reform of corporation tax so long as everyone does it and companies have no incentive to leave Ireland.

[weareros]

Honda gonna close the Swindon plant.

Strong and Stable, eh Theresa?

Really not sure of the Honda link to Brexit. And there is no need to manufacture a link for there will be plenty of cases where the link is concrete.

Surely obvious link is tariffs. If Japan has a better trade deal with EU, why manufacture in U.K. for cars sold in Europe. They are hardly going to come out and blame Brexit and get embroiled in social media spats like Airbus. Not their culture.

[LCohen]

Honda gonna close the Swindon plant.

Strong and Stable, eh Theresa?

Really not sure of the Honda link to Brexit. And there is no need to manufacture a link for there will be plenty of cases where the link is concrete.

Surely obvious link is tariffs. If Japan has a better trade deal with EU, why manufacture in U.K. for cars sold in Europe. They are hardly going to come out and blame Brexit and get embroiled in social media spats like Airbus. Not their culture.

But they are withdrawing manufacturing from Europe. It isn't financially viable to manufacture in Europe either inside or outside the EU

[LCohen]

Lamb is a tiny market.

All the same, it is an example of how outer parts of the country could adapt to the changed circumstances.
There is scope for other products also, the situation would not be great but not disastrous.

Trump is more interested in companies that countries. If a country is paying 3% and 2% in another he doesn't care. He just wants it collected in USA. And the pressure comes from more that just Trump and US.

Corporate tax evasion comes from these tax shelters like the Bahamas where no tax is paid. If companies pay tax in Ireland and paid tax in the US on the rest then there wouldn't be a major problem. This is beginning to happen, which has caused an increase in the Irish tax take.

[quote[ If the EU asked for reform of ROI corporate tax as a condition as standing shoulder to shoulder on the back stop where would we all stand?

Ireland can cope with reform of corporation tax so long as everyone does it and companies have no incentive to leave Ireland.
[/quote]

Lamb is a very small example. If it's an example of other products what are those products and you explain them to the ROI government who seem deeply concerned about the Brexit impacts?

Your tax analysis seems to be upside only and entirely misses the point. Other countries are not engaged in a principled debate on the impacts of tax avoidance or evasion. They simply want more for themselves and any country setting outside international norms is vulnerable. If a dollar of tax is paid in US in 2019 and in the previous year it was paid at 0.5 USD in RoI or 0.05 USD in Bahamas the POTUS couldn't give a toss. RoI is vulnerable

The only incentive to register the bulk of these profits in ROI is the double Irish. Remove that incentive and the tax revenue disappears.

[LeoMc]

Honda gonna close the Swindon plant.

Strong and Stable, eh Theresa?

Really not sure of the Honda link to Brexit. And there is no need to manufacture a link for there will be plenty of cases where the link is concrete.

Surely obvious link is tariffs. If Japan has a better trade deal with EU, why manufacture in U.K. for cars sold in Europe. They are hardly going to come out and blame Brexit and get embroiled in social media spats like Airbus. Not their culture.

But they are withdrawing manufacturing from Europe. It isn't financially viable to manufacture in Europe either inside or outside the EU

If the plant was inside the EU with frictionless JIT component delivery they may not have closed it. The EU/JP deal has meant they could get round the complexities off a UK outside the EU.

[trailer]

Honda gonna close the Swindon plant.

Strong and Stable, eh Theresa?

Really not sure of the Honda link to Brexit. And there is no need to manufacture a link for there will be plenty of cases where the link is concrete.

Surely obvious link is tariffs. If Japan has a better trade deal with EU, why manufacture in U.K. for cars sold in Europe. They are hardly going to come out and blame Brexit and get embroiled in social media spats like Airbus. Not their culture.

But they are withdrawing manufacturing from Europe. It isn't financially viable to manufacture in Europe either inside or outside the EU

If the plant was inside the EU with frictionless JIT component delivery they may not have closed it. The EU/JP deal has meant they could get round the complexities off a UK outside the EU.

Rumour and conjecture. I am no fan of Brexit but they have been quite clear this is not a Brexit related decision.