6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[armaghniac]

Interesting. Dolores Kelly is toast on these figures, Doug Beattie could struggle to hold his seat. Sinn Fein vote management could have been better. Diane Dodds also potentially struggling.

Tallies from one party (not the UUP) for Upper Bann:
O'Dowd, SF 17.1%
Buckley, DUP 14.7%
Tennyson, AP 14.7%
Mackle, SF 11.1%
Dodds, DUP 10.5%
Beattie, UUP 10.1%
Foster, TUV 7.1%
Barr, UUP 6.8%
Kelly, SDLP 5.8%

Kelly is gone, Beattie will do OK when his UU colleague is eliminated. Dodds is on a sticky wicket, but it depends how the TUV transfers go.

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

A lot of Shinners would rather a unionist gets in than a SDLP person. Had the original formula in the GFA for First Minister been used rather than the biggest party thing then they might be more interested in promoting nationalism.

[pbat]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

The centenary celebration attendance was what forced Mc Nulty way down the ballot for me and having Jack Chambers with him around South Armagh last week didn't sit well with me either.

I have time for Mallon, Hanna and O'Toole and would like to see one of them oust Eastwood and grow the SDLP again.

[Snapchap]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

It's about politics, not personalities. They may have "decent" people in their ranks (you could say that for most parties at the end of the day), but politically, they are naïve, rudderless, bitter, lacking identity - and their claims to be actively working for Irish unity are dubious at best (remember their attendance at the partition centenary shindig?). Add to that their leaders decision to tie his party to FF under the leadership of Micheal Martin - one of the most bitterly partitionist figures in southern politics - and you get the picture.

[gallsman]

A lot of commentators on social media were raving about Eastwoods performance on both tv debates.

Does this suggest the debates are completely irrelevant or are people either voting for SF to merely beat DUP or thinking Alliance is the better alternative ?

I think that's a big part of it ... SF are within touching distance of being the first nationalist First Minister, that allure is enough to have small 'n' nationalists give them their vote on this occasion.

It's about being the largest party for the first time, that's where the symbolism lies. SF spent years trying to get away from the "deputy" in deputy First Minister sure.

[trueblue1234]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

This.  I'd be giving them a vote ahead of Sinn Fein that's for sure.

To be fair there's plenty of animosity for SF on here as well. People will have differing views on different parties.

[Franko]

Not a good day so far for the SDLP. As some have said (and as I've been saying for weeks) their tactic of attacking SF at every turn was just astonishingly naïve. SF voters should have been low hanging fruit for SDLP transfers but Colum Eastwood's strategy seemed to have been to turn SF voters off giving his party a transfer. Absolute lunacy. I've no doubt that them canvassing alongside a constant stream of FG/FG/Lab TDs did nothing to endear them to nationalist/republican voters. There's a healthy cynicism (to put it mildly) in northern nationalism for FF/FG/Lab TD's and their use/abuse of the north when it suits them and on social media it was fairly plain to be seen that parading a succession of these TDs around the doorsteps was another deeply misguided strategy. It'll be a major kick in the teeth for them to lose Nicola Mallon if that's how it turns out but I suspect their biggest cold sweat will be at the seeming collapse of their vote in South Down - one of their two traditional strongholds. Makes you suspect that they have another problem specific to that constituency - my own guess being that people in the area have been turned off by their former SDLP MP Margaret Richie now sitting in the house of lords and calling herself Barroness Ritchie.

Elsewhere, SF look like they will come through relatively happy - looking good to hold two seats in Foyle where many predicted a loss. Stephen Donnelly of Alliance seemingly polling well in West Tyrone which could come at the expense of SF's third seat, that of Maolíosa McHugh.

I think South Down is an interesting one.  SDLP support seems to have fallen off a cliff. Im not so sure its about Baroness Ritchie more a total collapse of the grassroots of the party in the constituency. A lot of the older candidates retired off and no ready younger replacements with any sort of profile. Added to that some bad decisions in candidate selections and vote management have damaged the SDLP badly.
       

I've never understood the whole SDLP stronghold on South Down.. Hasn't been that way in 20 years if you go by election results, yes they returned 2 but was always late in the day with transfers. SDLP just are a nothing party, Eastwood coming out and saying voters have lent their votes to SF to return a Nationalist FM just further supports the arguement that he's a head in the sky twit

The guy is just so clueless

He's now blaming his pathetic election results on SF

For the sake of the SDLP in the first instance, and nationalism in-general, he needs to be gone ASAP

Is that not what some posters have said here ?!

Possibly have.

To the best of my knowledge, none of them are the leader of the SDLP though

[Snapchap]

Early predictions for West Tyrone about SF possibly losing one of it's three seats seem unfounded - in fact all three SF candidates are now polling better than the SDLP's sole candidate, Daniel McCrossan.

Enda McClafferty on the BBC now suggesting that SF could very possibly return the same number of seats (27) - no losses - something absolutely NOBODY predicted. Would be a remarkable result if that happened, given that the 2017 vote was regarded as a one off high for SF given the climate of "crocodiles" and RHI etc.

[Armagh18]

Early predictions for West Tyrone about SF possibly losing one of it's three seats seem unfounded - in fact all three SF candidates are now polling better than the SDLP's sole candidate, Daniel McCrossan.

Enda McClafferty on the BBC now suggesting that SF could very possibly return the same number of seats (27) - no losses - something absolutely NOBODY predicted. Would be a remarkable result if that happened, given that the 2017 vote was regarded as a one off high for SF given the climate of "crocodiles" and RHI etc.

Great stuff. Where are you getting this info any good website?

[Franko]

Interesting. Dolores Kelly is toast on these figures, Doug Beattie could struggle to hold his seat. Sinn Fein vote management could have been better. Diane Dodds also potentially struggling.

Tallies from one party (not the UUP) for Upper Bann:
O'Dowd, SF 17.1%
Buckley, DUP 14.7%
Tennyson, AP 14.7%
Mackle, SF 11.1%
Dodds, DUP 10.5%
Beattie, UUP 10.1%
Foster, TUV 7.1%
Barr, UUP 6.8%
Kelly, SDLP 5.8%

Kelly is gone, Beattie will do OK when his UU colleague is eliminated. Dodds is on a sticky wicket, but it depends how the TUV transfers go.

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

A lot of Shinners would rather a unionist gets in than a SDLP person. Had the original formula in the GFA for First Minister been used rather than the biggest party thing then they might be more interested in promoting nationalism.

Don't agree with this at all.  More SDLP fake victimhood

I am not happy about their demise - and said only earlier today that for the good of nationalism, the SDLP could do with being stronger.

However, they need to own this

They have some good operators, but their leader is a weak as dish water, one trick pony

I would enjoy a good laugh at being lectured by someone from the SDLP about promoting nationalism - when their entire political careers seem to be devoted solely to attacking the largest nationalist party

[Franko]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

The centenary celebration attendance was what forced Mc Nulty way down the ballot for me and having Jack Chambers with him around South Armagh last week didn't sit well with me either.

I have time for Mallon, Hanna and O'Toole and would like to see one of them oust Eastwood and grow the SDLP again.

Exactly this.

**Also have time for Cara Hunter 

[Snapchap]

Early predictions for West Tyrone about SF possibly losing one of it's three seats seem unfounded - in fact all three SF candidates are now polling better than the SDLP's sole candidate, Daniel McCrossan.

Enda McClafferty on the BBC now suggesting that SF could very possibly return the same number of seats (27) - no losses - something absolutely NOBODY predicted. Would be a remarkable result if that happened, given that the 2017 vote was regarded as a one off high for SF given the climate of "crocodiles" and RHI etc.

Great stuff. Where are you getting this info any good website?

Mixture of sources - BBC coverage on TV, twitter, and the Fermanagh Herald have a live blog of updates focusing mainly on Fermanagh-South Tyrone/West Tyrone/Mid-Ulster https://fermanaghherald.com/2022/05/live-election-blog-2022/

Latest from West Tyrone is that Nicola Brogan (SF) will be imminently deemed elected and her two running mates are safe. Daniel McCrossan behind the three SFers but is looking safe too.

[HiMucker]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

This.  I'd be giving them a vote ahead of Sinn Fein that's for sure.

To be fair there's plenty of animosity for SF on here as well. People will have differing views on different parties.

The candidates all seem decent but what is it the party represents? As loads of ones on here have said the constant sf bashing is off putting. It's not "shinnerbots" saying that.

[Snapchap]

Literally EVERY prediction I seen for the past few weeks said SF would lose in the region of 2-4 seats. In actual fact, their vote appears to have grown. BBC suggesting the could keep all their seats, with some muttering that they could even gain one or two. To keep 27 seats would be remarkable. To gain even one more? That would be absolutely astonishing.

[Kidder81]

Early predictions for West Tyrone about SF possibly losing one of it's three seats seem unfounded - in fact all three SF candidates are now polling better than the SDLP's sole candidate, Daniel McCrossan.

Enda McClafferty on the BBC now suggesting that SF could very possibly return the same number of seats (27) - no losses - something absolutely NOBODY predicted. Would be a remarkable result if that happened, given that the 2017 vote was regarded as a one off high for SF given the climate of "crocodiles" and RHI etc.

Would you not say, as others have said, the conditions here were fertile again. First nationalist FM in touching distance ?

[weareros]

Could Alliance get 2 in East Belfast? Would be something to take a Unionist seat there.