6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[marty34]

Or SDLP got more votes last time out and were 'overpriced'.  They got extra votes/transfers from unionists which they didn't get this time.

Plus the FF, FG and Labour etc. all canvassing for them - really mixed political messages.

[Mourne Red]

Doug Beattie at risk of losing his seat.. bit of a surprise there

[Armagh18]

Or SDLP got more votes last time out and were 'overpriced'.  They got extra votes/transfers from unionists which they didn't get this time.

Plus the FF, FG and Labour etc. all canvassing for them - really mixed political messages.

Yeah possible too.

Wish they'd hurry up and announce something

[Snapchap]

Some big names looking in big trouble:

SDLP's only minister, Nicola Mallon (SDLP)
Former DUP Education Minister, Peter Weir (DUP)
Former UUP Leader, Mike Nesbitt (UUP)
Green Party Leader, Clare Bailey

Believe it or not reports that the BBC NI's darling, UUP leader Doug Beattie, is polling very badly in Upper Bann. That being said, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't get in.

Delores Kelly (SDLP) looks to be well and truly gone in Upper Bann.

Five seats available and so far John O'Dowd (SF) is comfortably topping the poll with two DUP candidate, one Alliance candidate and a second SF candidate all polling stronger than Doug Beattie, and Dolores languishing way behind.

Doug looks like he will be relying on transfers at this rate.

[grounded]

Not a good day so far for the SDLP. As some have said (and as I've been saying for weeks) their tactic of attacking SF at every turn was just astonishingly naïve. SF voters should have been low hanging fruit for SDLP transfers but Colum Eastwood's strategy seemed to have been to turn SF voters off giving his party a transfer. Absolute lunacy. I've no doubt that them canvassing alongside a constant stream of FG/FG/Lab TDs did nothing to endear them to nationalist/republican voters. There's a healthy cynicism (to put it mildly) in northern nationalism for FF/FG/Lab TD's and their use/abuse of the north when it suits them and on social media it was fairly plain to be seen that parading a succession of these TDs around the doorsteps was another deeply misguided strategy. It'll be a major kick in the teeth for them to lose Nicola Mallon if that's how it turns out but I suspect their biggest cold sweat will be at the seeming collapse of their vote in South Down - one of their two traditional strongholds. Makes you suspect that they have another problem specific to that constituency - my own guess being that people in the area have been turned off by their former SDLP MP Margaret Richie now sitting in the house of lords and calling herself Barroness Ritchie.

Elsewhere, SF look like they will come through relatively happy - looking good to hold two seats in Foyle where many predicted a loss. Stephen Donnelly of Alliance seemingly polling well in West Tyrone which could come at the expense of SF's third seat, that of Maolíosa McHugh.

I think South Down is an interesting one.  SDLP support seems to have fallen off a cliff. Im not so sure its about Baroness Ritchie more a total collapse of the grassroots of the party in the constituency. A lot of the older candidates retired off and no ready younger replacements with any sort of profile. Added to that some bad decisions in candidate selections and vote management have damaged the SDLP badly.
       

[imtommygunn]

Doug Beattie at risk of losing his seat.. bit of a surprise there

If the UUP can't get votes this time there's no point in them tbh. There's enough in the hardline unionist space.

[Franko]

SDLP have only themselves to blame

They stand for nothing and 'but Sinn Fein' is their one and only response

The Derry balloon on here (before he became an Aontu man) was a prime exponent of this.

Ironically, Mallon does seem to be a quite capable Minister.  She is paying for her association to the broken record that is Eastwood though

Yer guy O'Toole also seems to be on his game


Any word on how Dr McCloskey's ex party are performing?

[Mourne Red]

Not a good day so far for the SDLP. As some have said (and as I've been saying for weeks) their tactic of attacking SF at every turn was just astonishingly naïve. SF voters should have been low hanging fruit for SDLP transfers but Colum Eastwood's strategy seemed to have been to turn SF voters off giving his party a transfer. Absolute lunacy. I've no doubt that them canvassing alongside a constant stream of FG/FG/Lab TDs did nothing to endear them to nationalist/republican voters. There's a healthy cynicism (to put it mildly) in northern nationalism for FF/FG/Lab TD's and their use/abuse of the north when it suits them and on social media it was fairly plain to be seen that parading a succession of these TDs around the doorsteps was another deeply misguided strategy. It'll be a major kick in the teeth for them to lose Nicola Mallon if that's how it turns out but I suspect their biggest cold sweat will be at the seeming collapse of their vote in South Down - one of their two traditional strongholds. Makes you suspect that they have another problem specific to that constituency - my own guess being that people in the area have been turned off by their former SDLP MP Margaret Richie now sitting in the house of lords and calling herself Barroness Ritchie.

Elsewhere, SF look like they will come through relatively happy - looking good to hold two seats in Foyle where many predicted a loss. Stephen Donnelly of Alliance seemingly polling well in West Tyrone which could come at the expense of SF's third seat, that of Maolíosa McHugh.

I think South Down is an interesting one.  SDLP support seems to have fallen off a cliff. Im not so sure its about Baroness Ritchie more a total collapse of the grassroots of the party in the constituency. A lot of the older candidates retired off and no ready younger replacements with any sort of profile. Added to that some bad decisions in candidate selections and vote management have damaged the SDLP badly.
       

I've never understood the whole SDLP stronghold on South Down.. Hasn't been that way in 20 years if you go by election results, yes they returned 2 but was always late in the day with transfers. SDLP just are a nothing party, Eastwood coming out and saying voters have lent their votes to SF to return a Nationalist FM just further supports the arguement that he's a head in the sky twit

[Franko]

Not a good day so far for the SDLP. As some have said (and as I've been saying for weeks) their tactic of attacking SF at every turn was just astonishingly naïve. SF voters should have been low hanging fruit for SDLP transfers but Colum Eastwood's strategy seemed to have been to turn SF voters off giving his party a transfer. Absolute lunacy. I've no doubt that them canvassing alongside a constant stream of FG/FG/Lab TDs did nothing to endear them to nationalist/republican voters. There's a healthy cynicism (to put it mildly) in northern nationalism for FF/FG/Lab TD's and their use/abuse of the north when it suits them and on social media it was fairly plain to be seen that parading a succession of these TDs around the doorsteps was another deeply misguided strategy. It'll be a major kick in the teeth for them to lose Nicola Mallon if that's how it turns out but I suspect their biggest cold sweat will be at the seeming collapse of their vote in South Down - one of their two traditional strongholds. Makes you suspect that they have another problem specific to that constituency - my own guess being that people in the area have been turned off by their former SDLP MP Margaret Richie now sitting in the house of lords and calling herself Barroness Ritchie.

Elsewhere, SF look like they will come through relatively happy - looking good to hold two seats in Foyle where many predicted a loss. Stephen Donnelly of Alliance seemingly polling well in West Tyrone which could come at the expense of SF's third seat, that of Maolíosa McHugh.

I think South Down is an interesting one.  SDLP support seems to have fallen off a cliff. Im not so sure its about Baroness Ritchie more a total collapse of the grassroots of the party in the constituency. A lot of the older candidates retired off and no ready younger replacements with any sort of profile. Added to that some bad decisions in candidate selections and vote management have damaged the SDLP badly.
       

I've never understood the whole SDLP stronghold on South Down.. Hasn't been that way in 20 years if you go by election results, yes they returned 2 but was always late in the day with transfers. SDLP just are a nothing party, Eastwood coming out and saying voters have lent their votes to SF to return a Nationalist FM just further supports the arguement that he's a head in the sky twit

The guy is just so clueless

He's now blaming his pathetic election results on SF

For the sake of the SDLP in the first instance, and nationalism in-general, he needs to be gone ASAP

[Harold Disgracey]

Interesting. Dolores Kelly is toast on these figures, Doug Beattie could struggle to hold his seat. Sinn Fein vote management could have been better. Diane Dodds also potentially struggling.

Tallies from one party (not the UUP) for Upper Bann:
O'Dowd, SF 17.1%
Buckley, DUP 14.7%
Tennyson, AP 14.7%
Mackle, SF 11.1%
Dodds, DUP 10.5%
Beattie, UUP 10.1%
Foster, TUV 7.1%
Barr, UUP 6.8%
Kelly, SDLP 5.8%

[Saffrongael]

Not a good day so far for the SDLP. As some have said (and as I've been saying for weeks) their tactic of attacking SF at every turn was just astonishingly naïve. SF voters should have been low hanging fruit for SDLP transfers but Colum Eastwood's strategy seemed to have been to turn SF voters off giving his party a transfer. Absolute lunacy. I've no doubt that them canvassing alongside a constant stream of FG/FG/Lab TDs did nothing to endear them to nationalist/republican voters. There's a healthy cynicism (to put it mildly) in northern nationalism for FF/FG/Lab TD's and their use/abuse of the north when it suits them and on social media it was fairly plain to be seen that parading a succession of these TDs around the doorsteps was another deeply misguided strategy. It'll be a major kick in the teeth for them to lose Nicola Mallon if that's how it turns out but I suspect their biggest cold sweat will be at the seeming collapse of their vote in South Down - one of their two traditional strongholds. Makes you suspect that they have another problem specific to that constituency - my own guess being that people in the area have been turned off by their former SDLP MP Margaret Richie now sitting in the house of lords and calling herself Barroness Ritchie.

Elsewhere, SF look like they will come through relatively happy - looking good to hold two seats in Foyle where many predicted a loss. Stephen Donnelly of Alliance seemingly polling well in West Tyrone which could come at the expense of SF's third seat, that of Maolíosa McHugh.

I think South Down is an interesting one.  SDLP support seems to have fallen off a cliff. Im not so sure its about Baroness Ritchie more a total collapse of the grassroots of the party in the constituency. A lot of the older candidates retired off and no ready younger replacements with any sort of profile. Added to that some bad decisions in candidate selections and vote management have damaged the SDLP badly.
       

I've never understood the whole SDLP stronghold on South Down.. Hasn't been that way in 20 years if you go by election results, yes they returned 2 but was always late in the day with transfers. SDLP just are a nothing party, Eastwood coming out and saying voters have lent their votes to SF to return a Nationalist FM just further supports the arguement that he's a head in the sky twit

The guy is just so clueless

He's now blaming his pathetic election results on SF

For the sake of the SDLP in the first instance, and nationalism in-general, he needs to be gone ASAP

Is that not what some posters have said here ?!

[JohnDenver]

I don't buy into the narrative of SDLP voters lending their votes to SF just to topple the DUP.  More chance of SDLP voters choosing to vote Alliance.

As for the TV debates, it doesn't matter how shiny and impressive Eastwood was when it comes to the ballot. He'll be trying his best to play it down, but it's a huge blow for the SDLP and no more than they deserve.

[Keyser soze]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

[bigarsedkeeper]

Not a good day so far for the SDLP. As some have said (and as I've been saying for weeks) their tactic of attacking SF at every turn was just astonishingly naïve. SF voters should have been low hanging fruit for SDLP transfers but Colum Eastwood's strategy seemed to have been to turn SF voters off giving his party a transfer. Absolute lunacy. I've no doubt that them canvassing alongside a constant stream of FG/FG/Lab TDs did nothing to endear them to nationalist/republican voters. There's a healthy cynicism (to put it mildly) in northern nationalism for FF/FG/Lab TD's and their use/abuse of the north when it suits them and on social media it was fairly plain to be seen that parading a succession of these TDs around the doorsteps was another deeply misguided strategy. It'll be a major kick in the teeth for them to lose Nicola Mallon if that's how it turns out but I suspect their biggest cold sweat will be at the seeming collapse of their vote in South Down - one of their two traditional strongholds. Makes you suspect that they have another problem specific to that constituency - my own guess being that people in the area have been turned off by their former SDLP MP Margaret Richie now sitting in the house of lords and calling herself Barroness Ritchie.

Elsewhere, SF look like they will come through relatively happy - looking good to hold two seats in Foyle where many predicted a loss. Stephen Donnelly of Alliance seemingly polling well in West Tyrone which could come at the expense of SF's third seat, that of Maolíosa McHugh.

I think South Down is an interesting one.  SDLP support seems to have fallen off a cliff. Im not so sure its about Baroness Ritchie more a total collapse of the grassroots of the party in the constituency. A lot of the older candidates retired off and no ready younger replacements with any sort of profile. Added to that some bad decisions in candidate selections and vote management have damaged the SDLP badly.
       

It was only a matter of time. Ritchie got unionist votes in WM elections to keep Ruane out. When SF moved her on their vote shot up and the SDLP are finished there too. Didn't do enough when they were in and Eastwood has been a disaster. They've been on life support since voting McDonnell as leader. I can't see them getting going again.

There's probably something in people giving them the vote to get the FM position but it's been coming for a while.

[tintin25]

Don't understand the animus towards the SDLP from 'nationalists' on this board, most of their representatives seem thoroughly decent sorts.

This.  I'd be giving them a vote ahead of Sinn Fein that's for sure.