6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

Started by Snapchap, February 23, 2022, 10:18:43 AM

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Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

Quote from: marty34 on May 09, 2022, 02:52:53 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on May 09, 2022, 02:05:15 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 09, 2022, 01:45:45 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on May 09, 2022, 10:45:25 AM
Quote from: marty34 on May 09, 2022, 09:05:42 AM
Yeah, it's totally a symbolic thing.  I think that's the main reason the DUP will not go in again.  They set their stall up a few months re: protocol when they saw the series of opinion polls and they were lagging behind SF. This was when they made the statement about protocol must be sorted. 

They don't see nationalists as equals.
They only do equality on their terms.
Nationalists must call them out on this and use this mantra to the media.

Aoife Moore was on RTÉ yesterday saying SF were driving the re-united Ireland theme and that it was ironic that FFG etc. in the 26 counties have no interest...and them so called republican parties.

SF must be pleased about their move in Derry to replace their two mla's there with new candidates.  Worked out really well for them.

DUP, after losing votes, but holding a lot of seats will be happy enough I think.  They'll be delighted that Allister is just back in himself.

Alliance got a lot of the 4th and 5th seats and will be delighted. Be interesting to see will this replicate into council seats at the next local elections.

SDLP will be shocked. Typical Derry city bluster under Eastwood. He needs to be asked the hard questions.

UUP didn't get much from the Beattie bounce but always said they have to shrink before they grow. Maybe he's right to stick at it.

Aontú - the mirror opposite to the TUV. With the backing of the bishops and the CC, they haven't made much inroads. Be interesting to see will you see their candidates stand again in the local elections.

Green Party - lost two seats and everyone disappointed about that, whatever political party you support. Again, they'll have to build from the bottom up.

PBP - Carroll the single mla again. Squeezed out again.

Whats does Derry City bluster  mean? is that a comment in general about Derry or what is it?

Educate yourself also about Aontú, TUV, catch yourself on, starting to sound like Allison Morris, disgraceful how she and others were trying to push this narrative.

Colum, Derry Ciry bluster like you saying people were told to vote Alliance in the Creggan...lol...were told to!

Like stopping Brexit and going to the birthday party in Armagh...bluster feom the city men.

Aontú are a one issue party - mirror image of TUV with Peadar as leader. Right wing, as loads of others on here have said but you argue with everyone.
I gave all shades of green a vote/preference last Thursday and was delighted to do so. 

Join us in an effort to move the re-unifacation of our country on in the short term. Whatever shade of green you are - don't stand on the sidelines sniping.

What are your republican credentials. PM if you like. I have never ever given a first preference to a non republican party and I am voting republican since SF were on 10% when we were still wakening up to Brits standing over our beds. I have seen people brutalised and shot by both the army and RUC and have been attacked myself by both them and loyalists.  I certainly don't need you to tell me anything about what Derry City men have or havent done for a UI.

Aontú are a left wing party on economics but described as socially conservative on the question of abortion. This seems beyond your ability of understanding, I cant help with that

Don't embarrass yourself with that statement!

You've had a bad week-end with the election results.

As I say, come join the rest of us in the preparation for re-unification of Ireland. Don't snipe at everybody else from the sidelines.

In other news, I always wonder why unionists never put up a single candidate in west belfast.  Would there notbe a good chance of a unionist seat there? Anybody know?

I still have redner  for you not knowing your left from right lol

Eire90

will another election in 6 months have a lower or higher turnout

Mourne Red

Quote from: Eire90 on May 09, 2022, 09:17:13 PM
will another election in 6 months have a lower or higher turnout

Depends on how things are going... DUP might get a massive f**k you from the voters who could come out in droves to put the boot into them and make Alliance 2nd biggest party.

SF are pretty safe on all their seats aren't they? So they could gain maybe 2 more if they work hard on getting votes?

SDLP seat in South Down is a target for them and maybe Foyle or Upper Bann for the other?

imtommygunn

What would be the point in another election if they wouldn't go in after that either. Unless it is all a smokescreen and it's just the first minister post is the issue.

Milltown Row2

Quote from: imtommygunn on May 09, 2022, 09:37:44 PM
What would be the point in another election if they wouldn't go in after that either. Unless it is all a smokescreen and it's just the first minister post is the issue.

But why would the results change? In fact it would get stronger surely?
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

Kidder81

I would tend to agree with newton Emersons analysis from the Irish Times today, they are going back it's just a matter of choreographing it

Newton Emerson: DUP's next mistake is to take patience of the North for granted


The DUP's plan to slink back to Stormont looks neat on paper. Whether it survives contact with reality is another matter.

The gist of the plan is simple: wait for likely fudges on the protocol, spin them as removing the sea border within the UK, claim credit for obtaining those changes through boycotting Stormont, then go back to the office in triumph and start rebuilding the party's support.

Objections to a Sinn Féin First Minister have already evaporated. Focusing on the protocol helps everyone forget the DUP had refused to confirm it would nominate a Deputy First Minister to serve alongside Michelle O'Neill, as did the UUP.

Stopping republicans holding the top job was used to rally unionist voters. It also rallied voters to Sinn Féin but the strategic geniuses of unionism considered that unavoidable. Once the votes were counted this tactic had served its purpose and DUP representatives dropped all pretence of not returning to the executive because Sinn Féin is the largest party.

Although the symbolic power of Sinn Féin's victory is genuine, it is hardly surprising after a year of opinion polls predicting it
The DUP presented the election as a last chance to secure the maximum number of anti-protocol assembly members. Perversely, focusing on immediate changes to the protocol helps everyone forget about that as well.

Recent changes to Stormont's rules mean the outgoing executive can remain in caretaker form for up to nine months before another election, while the new assembly can convene next week if Sinn Féin and the DUP nominate a speaker. This would answer criticism of leaving Northern Ireland ungoverned.

Mocked
Waiting for something to turn up on the protocol is credible. The DUP has been widely mocked, including by other unionists, for depending again on Boris Johnson riding to its rescue. However, the protocol is impractical to implement as agreed and this is creating new facts on the ground that London and Brussels have to address.

The real flaw in the DUP's plan is taking the patience of Northern Ireland for granted.

How long can the second largest party at Stormont put devolution on hold for what everyone knows is a face-saving exercise?

Stormont has ticked over in caretaker mode since February, when the DUP withdrew its First Minister Paul Givan. Continuing this limbo after an election feels significantly less legitimate and could quickly be seen as gratuitous, with healthcare collapsing and the cost of living soaring.

Caretaker ministers cannot take major or complex decisions, pass budgets or agree a programme for government. A £300 million sum left unspent due to Givan's resignation featured in every other party's election campaign and has become totemic of DUP waste and arrogance, recalling how the phrase "cash for ash" summed up the Renewable Heat Incentive.

Further authority has been sapped from the caretaker cabinet by the changed make-up of the assembly. The SDLP is no longer large enough to qualify for the executive yet will retain the Department for Infrastructure and stranger still must appoint a new minister as its deputy leader Nichola Mallon, the incumbent, has lost her seat.

Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Féin president, said unionists "should not be scared" by her party topping the poll. There is no sign they are, or ever were – otherwise the DUP might have enjoyed more success with its scare stories about a republican First Minister and a "divisive Border poll".

The sky has clearly not fallen in over Thursday's results. Although the symbolic power of Sinn Féin's victory is genuine, it is hardly surprising after a year of opinion polls predicting it. O'Neill as First Minister is an idea similarly priced in, helped by Givan's absence.

The seven percentage point fall in the DUP's vote, most of it picked up by the TUV, indicates not fear but anger – at the DUP. The TUV's inability to translate this into seats was largely down to bad luck but it still casts a pall of failure over the party and limits the prospects of a hardline turn in unionist politics.

The first attempt to form a new executive takes place this week. Even most DUP supporters will struggle to tell themselves they are not witnessing a circus. Everyone else will be deeply frustrated, amid a clamour from London, Dublin, Brussels and Washington to get on with it. The absurdity will increase if DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson returns to Westminster, as expected, putting a co-opted colleague into his assembly seat until devolution returns.

Unlike the last Stormont collapse, Northern Ireland can call time on this limbo when public patience snaps. The new rules give the assembly a cross-community vote every six weeks to end caretaker mode and move straight to an election within three months.

If unionists will not pass such a vote, nationalists can trigger an election anyway by withdrawing their caretaker ministers.

Unlike the 2024 protocol vote, interest in this is going to grow. The DUP's plan has a shelf-life of weeks.

armaghniac

Emerson's account seems plausible. However, the problem is the malign presence of the Boris regime. A half responsible government in London would make a few changes, maybe harmonise some food standards, then allow the DUP sell this as a win so that they can go into the Executive. But this London government is not even half responsible.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Eire90

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 09, 2022, 09:54:23 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 09, 2022, 09:37:44 PM
What would be the point in another election if they wouldn't go in after that either. Unless it is all a smokescreen and it's just the first minister post is the issue.

But why would the results change? In fact it would get stronger surely?

people are strange unless they are hoping to rile up the non voters to come out and vote

Main Street

Quote from: armaghniac on May 09, 2022, 10:31:24 PM
Emerson's account seems plausible. However, the problem is the malign presence of the Boris regime. A half responsible government in London would make a few changes, maybe harmonise some food standards, then allow the DUP sell this as a win so that they can go into the Executive. But this London government is not even half responsible.
Its not the sole preserve of the British Government to decide, they will have to enter into serious negotiations with the EU, that will take months. Emerson thinks the DUP only have weeks.
There is the claim by the DUP, well from Sammy at least who has recently discovered maths, said on the Nolan show on monday  that in this election the Unionist parties  outscored the nationalist vote and that mandate is being used not only to claim total unionist opposition to the protocol but also the DUP tactic of not voting in the executive. That position presumes much, not least that most every unionist vote was a vote for abstention as well as opposition to the protocol. What is the level of support among Unionists for the DUP abstention? is there any poll on that question?

imtommygunn

Quote from: Eire90 on May 09, 2022, 10:50:01 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 09, 2022, 09:54:23 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 09, 2022, 09:37:44 PM
What would be the point in another election if they wouldn't go in after that either. Unless it is all a smokescreen and it's just the first minister post is the issue.

But why would the results change? In fact it would get stronger surely?

people are strange unless they are hoping to rile up the non voters to come out and vote

They could change. The DUP could get number 1 party - nothing would surprise you in this place.

bogball88

Quote from: marty34 on May 09, 2022, 02:52:53 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on May 09, 2022, 02:05:15 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 09, 2022, 01:45:45 PM
Quote from: Fear Bun Na Sceilpe on May 09, 2022, 10:45:25 AM
Quote from: marty34 on May 09, 2022, 09:05:42 AM
Yeah, it's totally a symbolic thing.  I think that's the main reason the DUP will not go in again.  They set their stall up a few months re: protocol when they saw the series of opinion polls and they were lagging behind SF. This was when they made the statement about protocol must be sorted. 

They don't see nationalists as equals.
They only do equality on their terms.
Nationalists must call them out on this and use this mantra to the media.

Aoife Moore was on RTÉ yesterday saying SF were driving the re-united Ireland theme and that it was ironic that FFG etc. in the 26 counties have no interest...and them so called republican parties.

SF must be pleased about their move in Derry to replace their two mla's there with new candidates.  Worked out really well for them.

DUP, after losing votes, but holding a lot of seats will be happy enough I think.  They'll be delighted that Allister is just back in himself.

Alliance got a lot of the 4th and 5th seats and will be delighted. Be interesting to see will this replicate into council seats at the next local elections.

SDLP will be shocked. Typical Derry city bluster under Eastwood. He needs to be asked the hard questions.

UUP didn't get much from the Beattie bounce but always said they have to shrink before they grow. Maybe he's right to stick at it.

Aontú - the mirror opposite to the TUV. With the backing of the bishops and the CC, they haven't made much inroads. Be interesting to see will you see their candidates stand again in the local elections.

Green Party - lost two seats and everyone disappointed about that, whatever political party you support. Again, they'll have to build from the bottom up.

PBP - Carroll the single mla again. Squeezed out again.

Whats does Derry City bluster  mean? is that a comment in general about Derry or what is it?

Educate yourself also about Aontú, TUV, catch yourself on, starting to sound like Allison Morris, disgraceful how she and others were trying to push this narrative.

Colum, Derry Ciry bluster like you saying people were told to vote Alliance in the Creggan...lol...were told to!

Like stopping Brexit and going to the birthday party in Armagh...bluster feom the city men.

Aontú are a one issue party - mirror image of TUV with Peadar as leader. Right wing, as loads of others on here have said but you argue with everyone.
I gave all shades of green a vote/preference last Thursday and was delighted to do so. 

Join us in an effort to move the re-unifacation of our country on in the short term. Whatever shade of green you are - don't stand on the sidelines sniping.

What are your republican credentials. PM if you like. I have never ever given a first preference to a non republican party and I am voting republican since SF were on 10% when we were still wakening up to Brits standing over our beds. I have seen people brutalised and shot by both the army and RUC and have been attacked myself by both them and loyalists.  I certainly don't need you to tell me anything about what Derry City men have or havent done for a UI.

Aontú are a left wing party on economics but described as socially conservative on the question of abortion. This seems beyond your ability of understanding, I cant help with that

Don't embarrass yourself with that statement!

You've had a bad week-end with the election results.

As I say, come join the rest of us in the preparation for re-unification of Ireland. Don't snipe at everybody else from the sidelines.

In other news, I always wonder why unionists never put up a single candidate in west belfast.  Would there notbe a good chance of a unionist seat there? Anybody know?
Combined Unionist vote of 5442 in West Belfast with the quota being 7278. Frank McCoubrey got up to 5489 on the final count with transfers (from an initial first preference vote of 4166), with Gerry Carroll edging up to 6022 and being elected without reaching the quota

Armagh18

Quote from: imtommygunn on May 10, 2022, 08:29:09 AM
Quote from: Eire90 on May 09, 2022, 10:50:01 PM
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on May 09, 2022, 09:54:23 PM
Quote from: imtommygunn on May 09, 2022, 09:37:44 PM
What would be the point in another election if they wouldn't go in after that either. Unless it is all a smokescreen and it's just the first minister post is the issue.

But why would the results change? In fact it would get stronger surely?

people are strange unless they are hoping to rile up the non voters to come out and vote

They could change. The DUP could get number 1 party - nothing would surprise you in this place.
Could go either way- maybe the DUP could get TUV voters back with the notion of stopping SF being the largest party. Equally SF will almost certainly hold the 27 seats they have and probably take another one in South Down and maybe even one somewhere else. A lot of non voters may even come out this time if they get pissed off enough 

seafoid

Quote from: armaghniac on May 09, 2022, 10:31:24 PM
Emerson's account seems plausible. However, the problem is the malign presence of the Boris regime. A half responsible government in London would make a few changes, maybe harmonise some food standards, then allow the DUP sell this as a win so that they can go into the Executive. But this London government is not even half responsible.
The EU aren't going to tolerate shite from London in the middle of a war.
Reasonable changes will be entertained.
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Armagh18

Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2022, 10:24:39 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 09, 2022, 10:31:24 PM
Emerson's account seems plausible. However, the problem is the malign presence of the Boris regime. A half responsible government in London would make a few changes, maybe harmonise some food standards, then allow the DUP sell this as a win so that they can go into the Executive. But this London government is not even half responsible.
The EU aren't going to tolerate shite from London in the middle of a war.
Reasonable changes will be entertained.
the annoying thing about the protocol is that 90% of the people giving out havent a clue what it is. Best case scenario is the EU makes some immaterial changes, let the Unionists sell it as a big win and the protocol remains

RedHand88

Quote from: Armagh18 on May 10, 2022, 10:41:14 AM
Quote from: seafoid on May 10, 2022, 10:24:39 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 09, 2022, 10:31:24 PM
Emerson's account seems plausible. However, the problem is the malign presence of the Boris regime. A half responsible government in London would make a few changes, maybe harmonise some food standards, then allow the DUP sell this as a win so that they can go into the Executive. But this London government is not even half responsible.
The EU aren't going to tolerate shite from London in the middle of a war.
Reasonable changes will be entertained.
the annoying thing about the protocol is that 90% of the people giving out havent a clue what it is. Best case scenario is the EU makes some immaterial changes, let the Unionists sell it as a big win and the protocol remains

I have seen graffiti saying "Trigger article 16".