6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[Snapchap]

If the Shinners get into government in the South it will be for 5 years max. They have no answers either. There will be great excitement and then a polling collapse. Ask Labour.

Labour went in as junior partners of FFG. SF will be the senior partner.

[Kidder81]

Obviously historic moment for Sinn Fein holding First Minister but I don't think the Unionist vote os going away anytime soon, unionist vote fractured this time with TUV 1st preference votes. DUP will be looking for those votes back.

Nationalist vote 40% so not enough obviously to win a border poll and SF will know this. Will be very interesting if Stormont does get back to "normal" to see the Alliance counterweight to nationalist/unionist politics.

[Wildweasel74]

At the end of the day your polling % is of 60%of the population, until you get a good % of the 40% non-voters voting, plus all foreign nationals of the past 20yrs interested in an Actual vote there not be a big enough % for a UI in a referendum. All the yrs living beside polish people and they simply do not vote.

[Snapchap]

Being against taxes and wanting everything free is grand in opposition.
I still don't get SF not putting out their view of a UI instead if saying FF and FG need to be planning.

SF are pushing for a citizens assembly on the issue. Why the obsession with that SF haven't done for unity? All well and good taking digs at them for being in opposition and not doing enough on the issue. Don't FF/FG/Labour all claim to be pro-UI? Does their consistent inactivity while in government not need to be called out too?

Has it dawned on you that perhaps SF understand that a plan for a UI needs to be drawn up by a broad spectrum of society for it to be regarded as anything other than a piece of party political literature? Couldn't the southern government call a citizens assembly in the morning? Couldn't they form a government department into planning? Couldn't it do something instead of shooting down any/all talk of reunification or planning?

P.s. I was asking you a while back (when you stated your view that SF are competent) what party/parties you do regard as being competent. Care to tell us?

[seafoid]

If the Shinners get into government in the South it will be for 5 years max. They have no answers either. There will be great excitement and then a polling collapse. Ask Labour.

Labour went in as junior partners of FFG. SF will be the senior partner.

The Dept of Finance runs the show. SF are not going to change the rules if they get in. They can't fix inflation or increase wages. 

[An Watcher]

I heard Leo on this morn totally ignoring sinn feins performance in the election choosing instead to focus on alliance.  Then he mentions a new northern Ireland.  Anchor

[Snapchap]

I heard Leo on this morn totally ignoring sinn feins performance in the election choosing instead to focus on alliance.  Then he mentions a new northern Ireland.  Anchor

Heard an interview where he said he hoped that SF would work with other parties to try get stormont up and running again. A calculated attempt to plant the the notion in the heads of people in the south that it's SF's fault that it collapsed. Absolutely pathetic.

[seafoid]

Obviously historic moment for Sinn Fein holding First Minister but I don't think the Unionist vote os going away anytime soon, unionist vote fractured this time with TUV 1st preference votes. DUP will be looking for those votes back.

Nationalist vote 40% so not enough obviously to win a border poll and SF will know this. Will be very interesting if Stormont does get back to "normal" to see the Alliance counterweight to nationalist/unionist politics.

It's hard to know why SF promised a border poll within 5 years. Nothing has fundamentally changed.

[Snapchap]

Obviously historic moment for Sinn Fein holding First Minister but I don't think the Unionist vote os going away anytime soon, unionist vote fractured this time with TUV 1st preference votes. DUP will be looking for those votes back.

Nationalist vote 40% so not enough obviously to win a border poll and SF will know this. Will be very interesting if Stormont does get back to "normal" to see the Alliance counterweight to nationalist/unionist politics.

It's hard to know why SF promised a border poll within 5 years. Nothing has fundamentally changed.

Lets not be dishonest. SF haven't "promised a border poll in 5 years". They can't call a referendum. They can only lobby for one to happen in 5 years.

[Under Lights]

I don't think a lot of people here undertand that the GFA states that once a border poll is called there is automatically one every 7 years thereafter

[From the Bunker]

I don't think a lot of people here undertand that the GFA states that once a border poll is called there is automatically one every 7 years thereafter

So you are looking at the same length of time as an (Irish) Presidential election.

[armaghniac]

I don't think a lot of people here undertand that the GFA states that once a border poll is called there is automatically one every 7 years thereafter

It does not, it says that you cannot have one for another seven years. No point in having one then either unless something has changed.

[weareros]

If first fails, a minimum of 7 years has to pass before the next one, but it's still at mercy of Secretary of State. It's not automatic.

[imtommygunn]

It's far too soon for a border poll.

[yellowcard]

While it's a good election result for Sinn Fein, it doesn't bring a border poll success any closer. The problem is that there is a much greater chance of a successful border poll if it isn't led by Sinn Fein. The numbers breakdown is approx 40-20-40 and the middle ground is where it will be won and lost. That together with the 33% of current non voters. Unionist politicians have done almost everything in their power to alienate the 20% middle ground with their decisions in recent years but there is still a lot of ground work to be done to convince a sufficient amount of these same Alliance voters to vote to change the status quo. This will be won and lost mostly on economics, health, education and the day to day stuff that matter to people. Therefore it is more important that SDLP or other shades of civic nationalism gets behind the preparatory work. Sinn Fein support for a UI is a given in the same way that DUP/TUV is a given on the unionist side.