6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[sensethetone]

Must be planning something, if he's coming over.

Seems to be going to override parts of the deal.

I had thought the protocol headlines took the attention away from the part-gate news?

The DUP could be throwing Boris a lifeline.

[imtommygunn]

Yeah I think they are unfortunately 

Non DUPers should never trust tories but so should DUPers. It's just a matter of who it serves him best to shaft.

[imtommygunn]

https://twitter.com/JonTonge/status/1526268333124898816



Sammy's a republican. I knew it.

[seafoid]

   https://www.ft.com/content/0672dec7-ef91-410a-9da6-aa93e9d635ae

   Boris Johnson was locked in a stand-off with Northern Ireland's biggest pro-UK unionist party on Monday, as a row over post-Brexit trading rules left the region in political paralysis.

The Democratic Unionist party warned Johnson that only the enacting of legislation to scrap a post-Brexit customs border in the Irish Sea — not just the threat of a new law — would be enough to end the political deadlock.

Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, will on Tuesday set out plans for British legislation to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol, a key element of Johnson's 2019 Brexit deal, if talks with the EU on reforming the pact fail.

But while that plan has enraged politicians in the EU — who argue that Johnson's government is threatening to unilaterally rip up an international treaty — it is still not deemed hardline enough by the DUP.

[marty34]

https://twitter.com/JonTonge/status/1526268333124898816



Sammy's a republican. I knew it.

I'd say Sammy heard the question alright.

[Feckitt]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

[pbat]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Hope Pete Byrne gets in, he's a more helpful on local issues than some of the SF around here. Unless your in the SF inner circle no point contacting them. I had a planning issue a few years ago, emailed SF, SDLP and UU. Pete Byrne came and met me on site and helped sort it, UU responded with some helpful links and numbers. SF yet to respond.

[Feckitt]

Newry City - 6 Seater

2019 Result - 3 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 IND

This is a tricky one to predict because 2019 poll topper Gavin Malone (Ind) is not standing again.  Malone is a very popular councillor and had way over a quota.  Where will that vote go.  Alliance weren't far away from nicking the final seat the last time, and with Malone's votes back in play I fancy them to pick up a seat, which would be new ground for them.  Aontu, The Workers Party and the UUP are all standing but I don't expect them to feature strongly.
There was a bit of a fall out in the SDLP camp and Doire Finn has been announced as a late candidate. She is getting a fair push online, but I'm not sure how well known she is on the ground.  SF have 3 and are hoping to pick up some of the ex-Malone vote to push them out to 4.

Prediction 4 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance

Anyone care to do a review of their own local area?

[marty34]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Is there a unionist village in this area?

Final seat will go down to the wire in a lot of areas with the PR model.

I read somewhere that SF have candidates standing in the Ards area and Ballyclare.   Changed times indeed. Breaking new ground all the time.

[Feckitt]

There wouldn't be any predominantly Unionist villages, most Unionist voters would be from round Bessbrook and Newtownhamilton areas.

[GJL]

Early signs the Tories are taking a hammering over the water. Good viewing. (popcorn gif)

[keep her low this half]

Anyone care to give a prediction for their own local area.

Slieve Gullion (South Armagh) 7 Seater
2019 Result - 5 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP

The shinners are running 6 candidates this time to target the UUP seat.  It is very difficult to balance 6 candidates but they just might do it.  The Unionist population is elderly and dwindling and they really don't have the numbers anymore.  Older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, so that might save them this time.  The SDLP have an outside chance of getting two seats, they have an existing councillor in Pete Byrne and a good new candidate Killian Feehan.  Alliance are putting up a paper candidate and Aontu are represented by native New Yorker Reichenberg.  Neither will not put up much of a showing and there are no Independent Candidates

Prediction SF 6, SDLP 1

Is there a unionist village in this area?

Final seat will go down to the wire in a lot of areas with the PR model.

I read somewhere that SF have candidates standing in the Ards area and Ballyclare.   Changed times indeed. Breaking new ground all the time.

Noel sands, former high profile Down hurler from Portaferry standing for SF. He will hoover up votes round Portaferry but whether he egts over the line is another matter.

[keep her low this half]

In the Glens area of Causeway Coast and Glens we currently have 1 Ind, two SF, 1 SDLP and 1 UUP. The independent isn't standing again and neither is the longstanding UUP lady. If I had to guess I would think it will be 3 SF, 1 SDLP and 1 DUP. The DUP candidate Bill Kennedy runs Armoy road races and is quite high profile. He got pipped on the line by the UUP candidate the last time on nationalist transfers. the new guy for the UUP would not have the same name recognition or history of helping people so I don't think he will make it. Alliance standing for the first time in a very long time here which will also hurt the UUP. Hard to know how they will go, they may pick up a few votes from the Ind who had well over a quota, as well as from the SDLP and UUP.

[Brendan]

Benbradagh, 5 seats, Causeway Coast and Glens, currently 3 Shinners, a Stoop and DUP. Should be some sort of change here as the long standing sdlp Councillor isn't running this time and they've Brough mickey coyle out of retirement who lost his seat a couple of elections ago so hard to see him clinging on in there but the lack of any real challengers might save the seat. DUP had a gain here last time at the expense of TUV who aren't running and can't imagine the new UUP candidate will trouble them. 4 candidates from Dungiven with McGlinchey exceeding the quota it will depend where his transfers go to see who the other nationalist to get in

[RedHand88]

Cookstown DEA, Mid-Ulster Council, 7 seats
2019: 3 x Sinn Féin, 1 x SDLP, 1 x DUP, 2 x UUP

On the Nationalist side it will probably be as you were. The same 4 SF/SDLP candidates are running again after being elected comfortably last time. I see no reason why it won't happen again.
An independant republican or Aontú may have made things interesting but neither are running here.

Unionists could see a change. The second UUP candidate squeaked past a second DUP candidate for the 7th seat last time. I cant see them being so lucky again given the DUPs rising poll numbers.

Prediction
3 x Sinn Féin, 1 x SDLP, 2 x DUP, 1 x UUP
1 DUP gain
1 UUP loss