Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

north_antrim_hound

Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 04:23:12 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on February 07, 2019, 04:19:10 PM
UI means corporate tax alignment with the south and a lot of international investment. EU would definitely subsidise to the abundant waste of disproportionate civil service expenditure is restructured.
Can we afford not to have a UI

Work that up into a detailed prospectus that tells the average man on the street north and south what that will mean in terms of their pocket and service provision and you stand a chance

OK we need two documents of that nature, the second one being the existing horlicks under British Rule. I know which one I'm putting my money on.
There's a man with a mullet going mad with a mallet in Millets


yellowcard

Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support. 

Walter Cronc

That's kind of what I was getting at YC. The appeared lack of alternative options by Labour.

Is this article not a bit of a turn up? Spectator very tight wing. Maybe they actually see the DUP for the cretins they are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/a-referendum-on-irish-unity-might-be-the-best-way-to-solve-the-brexit-border-issue/amp/

yellowcard

Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 07:57:58 PM
That's kind of what I was getting at YC. The appeared lack of alternative options by Labour.

Is this article not a bit of a turn up? Spectator very tight wing. Maybe they actually see the DUP for the cretins they are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/a-referendum-on-irish-unity-might-be-the-best-way-to-solve-the-brexit-border-issue/amp/

I think it's a simple case of English nationalism trumping any pretence that the union is precious. For many Brexiteers the preservation of the UK is important but just not as important as releasing themselves from the shackles of the EU and their delusions that some form of utopia will automatically follow. 

Previous polls carried out last year suggested that many within England would ditch the 6 counties if it became an obstruction to them getting the Brexit that they wanted. I think that article is probably just a manifestation of that. If the DUP did not hold the balance of power im Westminster my guess is that the border would already have been established in the Irish sea.   

LCohen

Quote from: yellowcard on February 07, 2019, 04:38:29 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 04:08:36 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on February 07, 2019, 03:35:08 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 02:32:50 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on February 06, 2019, 11:12:30 PM
Quote from: Crete Boom on February 06, 2019, 11:05:12 PM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 06, 2019, 10:46:45 PM
I wouldn't vote for a 32 county Ireland as it stands

Our national debt is already over 200 BILLION
We can't afford it

Has anybody costed what a United Ireland would cost? People will say the British subvention,NHS cost etc.. but why should we have to adopt the British model of subvention and I am sure there is somebody on here with the expertise to explain the potential savings from the end of duplication of services and the ending of different tax regimes along with the huge social and confidence boost of being one country for the first time in 100 years!! Throw in EU reunification funds and development funds I am sure we it would be possible to mitigate against potential costs!! Personally I would happily take a hit in my pocket for the social boost to all of us if we could finally live together on this Island and I am sure there were probably plenty of potential economic arguments for my Grandfather to consider in 1916 for him and his family but he chose independence and when you look at Brexit I am delighted he did decide to fight!!!

https://senatormarkdaly.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/research-on-northern-ireland-income-and-expenditure.pdf

Other than the subvention probably isn't as high as £9bn and that author hopes that GB would stand on for part of the subventions there is not a lot in that 150 pages

But that is precisely what is at the crux of the whole economic argument against re-unification, the budget deficit figure. The report has explained that there are savings to be had in various areas to almost negate that before any potential uplift in growth due to FDI and synergies. Did you actually read the full report?     

And when you read that report you felt the closing of the deficit was fully explained?

Did you not find some of the assumptions a little presumptuous and a little one sided? Almost as if the conclusions were fixed and the report was written to backfill a route to the conclusions?

The report assumes that the £2.8 Bn spent on pensions/social welfare would continue to be funded by GB. What if it isn't? What if it's not fully GB funded? What if GB funding didn't last forever? Where is the sensitivity analysis of any of these?

The report just assumes that as welfare rights accrued under a UK system they would be fully serviced by GB. It makes the completely opposite assumption in respect of debt servicing. Is that not a bit lob sided?

The convergence savings of £1.7 Bn relates to civil service wages. What if NI needs more public sector workers per capita because of reality on the ground here? And even if you could realise the £1.7 bn of treasury savings what is the impact of sucking those wages out of the economy?

Report talks a lot about planning. Germany had it. The German population was made up of unifiers and people who didn't really care. Nobody was dead set against it once the eastern German top brass were removed. It's a bit different here. North and south who is going to commit to this planning in advance of a poll?

You ask an awful lot of questions yet you fail to answer as to whether you had actually read the full report or just taken selected extracts from it. My guess is that you have taken selected extracts from it to present your own argument. I'm not asking you whether you agree with it or not (you clearly have your mind made up already) just read it with an open mind rather than try to diss everything in it.

Of course there are a lot of assumptions how else can financial projections be anything otherwise in the absence of having a crystal ball. If you are looking for foolproof projections they won't exist in your argument against reunification either. Someone asked if anybody had carried out costings on a reunification and I simply posted this document up, people are clever enough to make up their own minds on it. My own view is that there would be a bit of short term pain but that mid-longer term it would create a lot of opportunities and in particular for the north which is an economic cesspit in comparision to the south.

I imagine that the foreign affairs department of the Irish government will have their own figures but are simply reluctant to release them for fear of freaking out Unionists.

Yes I have read the report. Now you answer my questions

"guesses" and "imagines" don't amount to answers though.

I don't have a problems with assumptions in a forward looking document. But making contradictory assumptions to suit a particular point of view is not serious academic research. And that is a huge flaw in this document

LCohen

Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

What do you want labour to do?

To campaign for a second vote and then for remain in that poll would be electoral suicide. They would lose the north of England and probably Wales, split the party and fail to agree a manifesto.

To campaign for no deal is not on the cards.

To facilitate stumbling into a no deal scenario splits the party


Something akin to their current proposal is Labour's best bet

Eamonnca1

Quote from: yellowcard on February 07, 2019, 07:25:32 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

Kidder81

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 07, 2019, 08:49:54 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on February 07, 2019, 07:25:32 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

+1

LCohen

#6369
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 07, 2019, 08:49:54 PM
Quote from: yellowcard on February 07, 2019, 07:25:32 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.

A proper Labour leader would have gotten off his backside and campaigned properly for Remain, maybe enough to swing the vote and avoid this whole sorry mess.

Of Labour 60 top target seats 60 voted to leave.

I voted to stay and as disappointed am as anyone at where we are but we cannot lay it at Jezza's door

Aaron Boone

There won't be border checks on day 1 (Leinster v Ulster match). Give it 6 months until Ireland is advised by EU to have the frontier with NI

LCohen

Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:26:56 PM
Not that it counts for much but the polls reckon the Tories would still win a General Election.

Which is absolutely mental given they are the most incompetent fools ever!

Both the Tories and Labour are in a battle with themselves to try and stay together.

Soubry and Francois can't stand on the same platform. Nor can Umunna and Mann. That can't be fudged any longer

LCohen

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 07, 2019, 05:46:05 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 04:08:36 PM
And when you read that report you felt the closing of the deficit was fully explained?

Given the high level nature of it, you are always going to have to deal with high level assumptions.

The closing of deficit was not fully explained, nor would I agree with it.

However, I would expect improved growth in trade due to a UI (especially in the case where the UK has steered itself away from the EU), to lead to GDP growth and the tax revenue from that to bring about an approximate balancing of books.
.

Anything more specific?

LCohen

Quote from: north_antrim_hound on February 07, 2019, 05:49:24 PM
Quote from: LCohen on February 07, 2019, 04:23:12 PM
Quote from: north_antrim_hound on February 07, 2019, 04:19:10 PM
UI means corporate tax alignment with the south and a lot of international investment. EU would definitely subsidise to the abundant waste of disproportionate civil service expenditure is restructured.
Can we afford not to have a UI

Work that up into a detailed prospectus that tells the average man on the street north and south what that will mean in terms of their pocket and service provision and you stand a chance

OK we need two documents of that nature, the second one being the existing horlicks under British Rule. I know which one I'm putting my money on.

What exactly are you asking here?

LCohen

Quote from: yellowcard on February 07, 2019, 07:25:32 PM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on February 07, 2019, 05:16:40 PM
Is the real failure in this sorry state of affairs not the Labour party??

The ERG and their apologists within the media would love you to believe that. Those charlatans should be the people held to account for this sorry mess.

Corbyn may have his faults but he is not the architect of this whole Brexit charade. That said I do believe a more centrist labour leader would have helped deliver some form of Brexit deal with cross party support.
.

Is that not what he is doing?