Brexit.

Started by T Fearon, November 01, 2015, 06:04:06 PM

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Walter Cronc

Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:59:06 AM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 10:43:13 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

If there was a deal it would have to have the support of most of the Tory big hitters that want a BREXIT.  UKIP are already very strong but Boris Johnson is much more charismatic than David Cameron ever was.  "Voting Tory will cause your wife to have bigger breasts and increase your chances of owning a BMW M3."  Goes down well with the Express/Sun reading general public.  I think the Tories might do fairly well in a future election with Johnson as leader.

Until his 'inner Churchill' comes out and he goes to war with Russia!

smelmoth

Quote from: LeoMc on June 27, 2016, 10:58:04 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 27, 2016, 09:10:55 AM
Quote from: LeoMc on June 27, 2016, 08:55:36 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 27, 2016, 08:50:45 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on June 26, 2016, 11:17:23 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

The ROI is one of the few places the UK has a trade surplus with, owing to the volume of consumer goods from there. Sterling going down is a swings and roundabouts issue too.

Explain the significance of the trade surplus in the context of this debate?
The UK's trade surplus is Irelands trade defecit.
If we are trading the same volume but the cost of the goods coming in goes down (£ loses value relative to €) then Irelands trade defecit narrows.

So if you sell a good or service into the UK and you lose orders because there is less demand in UK, the currency movement has made your goods more expensive and the UK importer now has to pay an import tariff what significance is to you that the imports from UK will be cheaper?

Is it not even worse as an import from UK is now cheaper (especially in the 2+ years Article 50 period) and so RoI businesses well find it harder to compete in their domestic market against UK competitors?
No benefit to you specifically, only to the overall balance of trade.
If you are selling you will lose out
If you are buying you may gain.

So if you were concerned about the overall health of the RoI economy, tax revenues in RoI, employment levels in RoI would you be happy with brexit or would you spend the time thinking about the overall balance of trade with 1 country?

smelmoth

Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 10:53:05 AM
Quote from: haveaharp on June 27, 2016, 10:50:06 AM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 10:43:13 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

With their one MP?

Well they are predicted to obliterate Labour in the north of England.

I'm worriedr for the labour party. Especially if the ditch Corbyn. If they do we will never know what could have been achieved by Labour if the parliamentary party actually got behind the leader. Ditching him now, his ability to break through to the youth vote and basically handing the northern working class vote to UKIP is a disaster. A disater for Labout, a disaster for the working class and a disaster for the country

LeoMc

Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 10:43:13 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

Cameron insisting Article 50 should be invoked in the event of a Leave vote and then stepping down to avoid being the one to do it has left Boris with 3 choices:
1. Become PM, invoke Article 50 as he campaigned for and damage the economy fro a generation.
2. Become PM, don't invoke article 50 causing the Tory party to implode and voters to lose faith in them for a generation.
3. Don't run for PM and expose himself as the populist charlatan he is. The slippery Gove saw the writing on the wall which is why he ruled himself out and backed Boris.

1 & 2 are the choices facing anyone who takes the poisoned crown but as Boris move to Leave is seen as the purely party political manoeuvre it was he has the a 3rd option for public evisceration.

LeoMc

Quote from: smelmoth on June 27, 2016, 11:12:17 AM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 10:53:05 AM
Quote from: haveaharp on June 27, 2016, 10:50:06 AM
Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 10:43:13 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

Surely by doing so would rip the Tories apart and the only winner being UKIP in future elections?

With their one MP?

Well they are predicted to obliterate Labour in the north of England.

I'm worriedr for the labour party. Especially if the ditch Corbyn. If they do we will never know what could have been achieved by Labour if the parliamentary party actually got behind the leader. Ditching him now, his ability to break through to the youth vote and basically handing the northern working class vote to UKIP is a disaster. A disater for Labout, a disaster for the working class and a disaster for the country
Both they and the Tories risk tearing themselves apart over the next 12-18 months. The Lib Dems stint in Government will prevent them from taking advantage leaving UKIP as the only party to take advantage.

muppet

Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

It is the 2nd highest net contribution.
It is 4th by total payments.
It is 7th by net population.
It is in last place in percentage of its national income to the EU (because of the rebate).

If the Little Englanders are withdrawing from the EU because of a net £9bn annual contribution, how do those Little Englanders view the £6bn a year (depending on which figures you read) poured into Northern Ireland? Consider what it gets in return from EU membership versus what it gets from the 6 counties UK membership in return.


MWWSI 2017

dferg

Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 11:36:16 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

It is the 2nd highest net contribution.
It is 4th by total payments.
It is 7th by net population.
It is in last place in percentage of its national income to the EU (because of the rebate).

If the Little Englanders are withdrawing from the EU because of a net £9bn annual contribution, how do those Little Englanders view the £6bn a year (depending on which figures you read) poured into Northern Ireland? Consider what it gets in return from EU membership versus what it gets from the 6 counties UK membership in return.

I'd imagine They'd ditch NI in a heartbeat if they could find a way to do it.  At least Scotland has North Sea oil.

Walter Cronc

Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 11:41:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 11:36:16 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

It is the 2nd highest net contribution.
It is 4th by total payments.
It is 7th by net population.
It is in last place in percentage of its national income to the EU (because of the rebate).

If the Little Englanders are withdrawing from the EU because of a net £9bn annual contribution, how do those Little Englanders view the £6bn a year (depending on which figures you read) poured into Northern Ireland? Consider what it gets in return from EU membership versus what it gets from the 6 counties UK membership in return.

I'd imagine They'd ditch NI in a heartbeat if they could find a way to do it.  At least Scotland has North Sea oil.

Jeez I never knew of those figures!! Unreal when you think about it. Could they conceivably ever drop the north?? Is Arlene and her mates that delusional that they think they'll stand by them. I'm no fan of Mike Nesbitt but at least he had the sense to see potential financial implications.

armaghniac

Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 11:41:49 AM
I'd imagine They'd ditch NI in a heartbeat if they could find a way to do it.  At least Scotland has North Sea oil.

The DUP may rue their bigotry. They wanted this to substitute the EU payments with London ones, but London may do the sums and send a lot less. Scotland is an important defender of the Barnett arrangements, as it orginated in the original 1970s Scottish referenum, if they feck off the whole thing will be redrawn. The depressed areas in England and Wales that voted Leave in big numbers will not be exactly happy that NI, which is in some ways more prosperous, is getting more money than they are. The payments to NI are not that much less than the net contribution to the EU!

If you read forums based in Britain, there are lots of posts that just expect NI to leave as well as Scotland. This reflects people with a limited understanding of things, but the unionists have put themselves out on a limb.

As for Mike Nesbitt, the UU correctly analysed the situation but then hid during the Brexit campaign.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

muppet

Quote from: Walter Cronc on June 27, 2016, 11:50:03 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 11:41:49 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 11:36:16 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 27, 2016, 10:32:30 AM
Quote from: muppet on June 27, 2016, 12:03:43 AM
Quote from: dferg on June 26, 2016, 11:57:59 PM
Quote from: smelmoth on June 26, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
Quote from: johnneycool on June 26, 2016, 10:21:08 PM
Even after the brexit, the UK will have to pay for the privilege of trading with the EU and meet all the associated compliance requirements without having any say in these standards.

The ability to control your own borders might come with a very high price for the little Englanders.

Apart from possible issues around the hard /soft border with the north, the 26 counties could be quid's in with the big multinationals looking a new EU base.

The No1 most effected economy in this is RoI. And I include UK in this

UK is a key a market for RoI. Any reduced deman in UK impacts negatively on RoI. A weaker sterling makes RoI exports to UK more expensive and thats before we add tarrifs. I say Inda and Noonan are shiting themselves and praying that the EU goes lightly on UK

Most people on this forum seem to focus on how Brexit will affect the UK economy, I feel it will affect the Euro at least as much if not more.  We have already the leader of the far right in France calling for a free vote for a FREXIT which Hollande says he will not allow.  He can stall this vote but if the already strong Far Right (NF was the largest party in France in 2014 European elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(France)) win the election next spring they will push hard for a vote on FREXIT.  Spain for example with 20% unemployment could easily follow and demand a vote on the Euro.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-britain-but-sell-europe-after-stunning-brexit-rebuke-2016-06-24

You think Britain leaving the EU will affect the EU 'at least as much if not more' than it will affect Britain?

Seriously?

I do yes.

David Cameron came to the negotiating table and threatened the EU with a UK vote on BREXIT as a negotiating tactic, if there was a vote and it was fairly close (55-45% in favour of stay for example) they could use the threat of another vote in the future.  The EU in a game of brinkmanship said fine have a vote and it's snowballed from there.  Now they are both going holy fook what sort of can of worms have we opened up here.  They are the second biggest net contributor to the EU (whatever way you want to look at the numbers ::) ) and by leaving they destabilise further other countries like France who are more right wing than Britain.  It's not like Ireland threatening to leave, where the EU delegates might get them there suitcases as there next move.

I'd imagine Boris wants to be prime minister at least as much as he wants a BREXIT.  One scenario that could play out is behind the scenes the EU offer Britain some sort of deal, a further cap on contributions, controls on immigration that Boris will then have to sell in a second referendum.  He gets to look like a sort of white knight that has given the EU a bloody nose and the EU goes on much like before.

It is the 2nd highest net contribution.
It is 4th by total payments.
It is 7th by net population.
It is in last place in percentage of its national income to the EU (because of the rebate).

If the Little Englanders are withdrawing from the EU because of a net £9bn annual contribution, how do those Little Englanders view the £6bn a year (depending on which figures you read) poured into Northern Ireland? Consider what it gets in return from EU membership versus what it gets from the 6 counties UK membership in return.

I'd imagine They'd ditch NI in a heartbeat if they could find a way to do it.  At least Scotland has North Sea oil.

Jeez I never knew of those figures!! Unreal when you think about it. Could they conceivably ever drop the north?? Is Arlene and her mates that delusional that they think they'll stand by them. I'm no fan of Mike Nesbitt but at least he had the sense to see potential financial implications.

On top of those figures the EU had agreed to pay €3.5bn to the North in structural funding running up to the year 2020. What happens that money now?
MWWSI 2017

Milltown Row2

Casement will never be built now  ;)
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

armaghniac

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on June 27, 2016, 12:13:55 PM
Casement will never be built now  ;)

They'll probably set up a giant soup kitchen there.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

The UK is in senior hurling territory.

the vote c0uld be neutered with a fresh election and a government mandate to stay in the EU with concessions
I don't think Boris as PM will fly. too many enemies
the UK needs to invest huge money in depressed areas of the north of England
Otherwise the country falls apart with massive losses for the wealthy
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU

Clov

Interesting article here suggesting that the economic ramifications are more serious for the eurozone that for Britian
http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/
"One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit"

seafoid

Quote from: AQMP on June 27, 2016, 01:37:15 PM
Sterling is getting pummeled on the markets.  Dipped below €1.20 and is at $1.31
stg was at USD 1.50 on Thursday
Markets are so efficient
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU