Elections North and South

Started by Farrandeelin, April 18, 2019, 04:09:48 PM

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Insane Bolt

No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

smelmoth

#110
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 04, 2019, 03:55:08 PM
Quote from: tintin25 on May 04, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

It's quite simple. If SF and DUP gobble up a seat who stands the best chance of pulling together remain voters from a unionist and nationalist background? Who can pull together the voters who couldn't stomach voting SF or DUP.  Jane Morrice could throw a spanner in the works but the Alliance momentum should see that off.

Moderate nationalists at least have the reassurance that moderate unionists are already looking towards Alliance and Danny Kennedy is hardly going to reverse that trend

smelmoth

#111
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 09:07:48 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 06:23:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 04, 2019, 03:55:08 PM
Quote from: tintin25 on May 04, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isn't all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

smelmoth

#112
Quote from: playwiththewind1st on May 04, 2019, 11:25:12 PM
Doubt if Ulster Unionists will be...significant losses & all but wiped out in Belfast. Glad to see Jim Allister doing badly too.

Neither of those 2 could be happy. Mind you TUV got an 18 year old councillor elected. The fact that an 18 year old would even consider voting for Jimbo's insanity collective is bad enough but to stand and win shows how much further we have to go

smelmoth

Quote from: Owen Brannigan on May 04, 2019, 11:49:10 PM


D-
Must do better
Could do better
Holding back and setting a poor example to the rest of the class

smelmoth

Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 05, 2019, 07:22:40 AM
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

Farrandeelin

On the basis of those results, should SF drop their ongoing call for a border poll?
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

Owen Brannigan

Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 11:22:50 PM
In a strange way, every party will be happy!!

Very few happy.

Alliance, Greens, PBP and some independents will be happy.

DUP will be concerned about Alliance gains at their expense. Liberal wing particularly so and blaming Wells and friends. Internal strife on how to move forward to be only unionist party.

TUV Largely decimated with a couple of pockets of resistance left. Only Allister in EU election to keep them on life support.

So many sitting councillors were dumped out either by electorate or party vote management. Leaves quite a few disgruntled party members and friends to cause issues in the bigger parties.

SF will spin the status quo as a win but failed to take out the irritant of PBP who bit back. Seriously lost Derry where future assembly and general elections will be a worry  and made no gains in BCC. Had predictions of levelling with DUP but standing still was never in the plan.

UUP took a serious hammering. Liberal unionists leaked away as Swann moved to DUP lite and back in time to his heroes in Chichester-Clarke and Faulkner. Great to see Hatch, McGimpsey, etc being thrown out. Like DUP expect serious internal strife, not knowing which way to go with both DUP and Alliance eating in to traditional electorate.

SDLP already knew the losses to expect where defections had occurred since 2014. Dealt with well in BCC but not well in other areas. Serious failure in F&O.  Derry being hauled back from SF will be a plus but defections by electorate to Alliance now a battle on a second front a major worry. FF factor seems not to have been a major problem. EU election will be true examination with the Alliance momentum and Long factor a worry for Eastwood.

Owen Brannigan

Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 08:10:41 AM
Quote from: Insane Bolt on May 05, 2019, 07:22:40 AM
No real change overall.....NI politics still green or orange.

But a wee bit less so and the direction of travel is in the right direction.

UUP teetering. Alliance the obvious destination for unionists with a pro remain, generally progressive outlook and or tired of the incompetence and inertia of DUP.

Sdlp giving one last stand but ultimately going to get squeezed between the SF machine and the catholic taliban. When that happens Alliance is the natural destination.

If NI can build a powerful alternative to SF/DUP ineptitude then those 2 parties can be held to account.

The true test for emerging middle will be whether they can:

1. Bring out the lost voters who left SDLP and UUP because of their failure to challenge SF and DUP in being winners but now can see a glimmer of hope for change.

2. Present themselves as a force working together but with own identities. Transfers are vital between like minded groupings.

3. Learn from SF and DUP to persuade moderates to lend them their votes to halt the stagnation caused by DUP and SF.

Can the Greens tap into momentum for environmental change and bring the younger voters to themselves not just in the East?

They will need another election in the next year or so to maintain momentum. Will possibly get it with a general election always a possibility.

marty34

Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 07:55:36 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 09:07:48 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 06:23:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 04, 2019, 03:55:08 PM
Quote from: tintin25 on May 04, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isn't all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU. 

smelmoth

Quote from: marty34 on May 05, 2019, 10:12:43 AM
Quote from: smelmoth on May 05, 2019, 07:55:36 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 09:07:48 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 06:23:11 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on May 04, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
Quote from: marty34 on May 04, 2019, 04:49:54 PM
Quote from: JPGJOHNNYG on May 04, 2019, 03:55:08 PM
Quote from: tintin25 on May 04, 2019, 11:48:06 AM
Glad to see Alliance do well. I reckon a sizeable number of Catholics are starting to vote for them too.

It's been known for quite some time more Catholics than protestants vote alliance about 5 years ago a poll had it at 4 out of every 7

The test will be in the Euro elections in a few weeks - do they give their first preference to SDLP or Alliance?

There is a case for tactical voting for Alliance. If the SDLP are eliminated first, then Alliance would get transfers to pass the UU. If Alliance are eliminated first perhaps a third of the transfers might go to the UU and the UU might make it.

Two nationalist candidates getting elected would not really represent things; one unionist, one Alliance and one nationalist would be a fair representation of things.

Without Jim Nicholson this time and the UUP losses, I don't think the electorate will be enticed to vote the UUP.

in the local elections, the UU got more than Alliance or SDLP
A few might choose to vote Alliance for the Euro election, but Alliance are not prominent in agricultural matters.

It isn't all about Agriculture. What does Bomber Anderson know about farming?

More to the point why would anyone vote for Anderson? Can you honestly point to 1 one way in which Anderson could articulate or has articulated the views of the people of NI better than say Naomi Long?

She has been excellent in Europe as a rep.  Articulated well that the north voted to stay in the EU.  You need to take the blinkers off - she has been the only one stating the case to stay in the EU.

How are you defining excellence there?

Is there something in her voting record, speeches to the parliament or influence that she is bringing to bear that you can point to? Or is it just your own blinkered vision?

She is only attempting to pitch the remain side because the other 2 are leavers (you must venerate Sylvia Hermon) but the question is how well does she do it and influence does she have?

You cannot credibly argue that she has the competence or articulacy of Long?? That would be the definition of blinkered