The IRISH RUGBY thread

[johnnycool]

Is it fair to say a lot of those lads coming in are not nailing down chances so it's a churn?

Nope, that doesn't make sense.

This is probably the best team we've ever had and definitely the best World Cup squad we've ever had.
The bookies say the best four teams in the world are quite a bit ahead of the rest, and most followers of rugby would agree.
Ireland are one of those 4, but ranked by the oddsmakers as 4th favourites, very slightly behind the other 3.
Can the 4th best team win the World Cup? Yes.
Is it likely? No.
While it's our best squad, we've more depth in some positions than others. Injuries/suspensions are likely to have a bigger adverse impact on us that the other 3 contenders.

We're very close to France. When we play it is the home team that are marginal favourites.
We're no longer afraid of New Zealand. Most of our players have won more than they've lost against them. But a World Cup quarter-final would be a different beast. Barring injuries we're evenly matched, but NZ would have the edge in having that inner belief that NZ always win these type of games.
Ireland play South Africa in the group stages. Another 50/50, but I wouldn't pay a huge amount of attention to the result. Like Kerry v Mayo this year, it's a game both teams will want to win, but everyone will know that while a win should certainly be advantageous, it's not do or die. It will be slightly below 100%.
I don't think we can beat South Africa in a true knockout game. In the unlikely scenario of Ireland winning the World Cup, in my view it would require one of France/NZ taking out the Boks in the quarter final.

We're likely to be edged out in the quarter-final. That won't be a failure. That will be meeting expectations given the draw. A failure would be a hammering, or losing to Scotland in the group stages. Scotland are much better than England or Wales, and probably at the same level as Australia, so should not be underestimated- but we should have too much for them.

Ireland have a shitty draw which means in the group stages they'll almost certainly need to beat Scotland to keep the second spot if we don't beat SA first.

Then either NZ or the hosts in a quarterfinal..

It'll be hard not to pick up a few injuries along the way and then you could be down to the walking wounded in a QF.

Groups C and D are a mile weaker

[Joeythelips]

As far as i know draw was made in December 2020.

Nearly 3 years ago.........

Wow, that explains why it is so lob sided. Argentina for example will never get a better opportunity of making a World cup final. In a group with a poor England side (by their standards), top that and most likely play a beatable Welsh side in quarters, before they face one of the big guns (most likely NZ or South Africa) in semis.

[Keyser soze]

In summary, what's needed for Ireland to win the Rugby World Cup is to not have to play any good teams before the final.

Their record against lower ranked teams in previous WCs means they'd inevitably win it if the draw had been kinder. 

[Joeythelips]

A good article about ranking sides in the World cup. Hard to argue with it too much:

1. France

In the eyes of many experts, France are the front-runners to become the second Northern Hemisphere side ever to be crowned world champions after England's victory 20 years ago.

There were plenty of signs in 2019 of what the French could be capable of in the long run, and in the four years between World Cups they have developed into a formidable opponent. With former Wales coach Shaun Edwards in charge of their defence, France now have the discipline which has previously been missing, and are a very difficult side to beat who are comfortable soaking up pressure.

France have a pack which can go toe to toe with any side in the world while their attack is as potent as its ever been. Fabien Galthie's side only need a small amount of possession to cut any side in the world to shreds.
They also have world class players littered throughout their side, including generational talent Antoine Dupont. La Rochelle No 8 Gregory Alldritt, centre Gael Fickou, wing Damian Penaud, and props Cyrill Baille are among the best in their positions in the world.

The loss of star outside-half Romain Ntamack is a huge blow although Bordeaux playmaker Mathieu Jallibert is no mug. It will be interesting to see how France cope with the enormous pressure on their shoulders but as far as we are concerned they are the favourites.

2. South Africa

The Springboks arguably have a stronger squad now than the one who were crowned world champions four years ago.

There is no side in the world who can match the raw power and the physicality of the Springboks, who are capable of battering anyone into submission. Their scrum is a destructive weapon with their driving lineout almost unstoppable, while the likes of Eben Etzebeth, Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx, and Syia Kolisi would be contenders for a world XV.

They also have plenty of firepower behind the scrum although they have lost influential outside-half Handre Pollard, and the world's best outside centre Lukanyo Am to injury. There's still tons of stardust though with the mercurial Mannie Libbok pulling the strings at number 10, while the likes of Cheslin Kolbe, Makazolo Mapimpi, Willie Le Roux, and Canan Moodie are able to cut any side in the world to shreds.

A Frances versus South Africa final is a real possibility.

3. Ireland

Officially Ireland are the world's best side, and it's hard to disagree with the rankings given they recently won a Six Nations Grand Slam, and won an historic first test series against the All Blacks in New Zealand last summer.

Ireland have been fancied before past World Cups only to fall flat on their faces at the actual tournament but this is the best side ever to have left the Emerald Isle. Andy Farrell has taken Ireland's game to another level, building on the superb work done by Joe Schmidt.

They have an extremely physical pack of forwards littered with ball carriers, a strong set-piece while they are arguably the best exponents of breakdown play in the world. Unlike South Africa their game is extremely layered, with their attacking game very intricate.

Ireland have so much control from half-back with Jamison Gibson-Park and Johnny Sexton, while upfront Tadhg Furlong, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Beirne, and Josh van der Flier are world class players. The problem Ireland have is they rely so heavily on Sexton at number 10, and as former Dragons coach Bernard Jackman recently said, if the Leinster playmaker gets injured it cuts his sides chances of lifting the Webb-Ellis Cup by 20%.

4. New Zealand

Some bookmakers have New Zealand down as favourites but they aren't invincible as they once were. The All Blacks have recovered from a poor 2022 to win the Rugby Championship but a 35-7 hiding by South Africa at Twickenham last weekend was a reminder they are far from unbeatable.

Having said that, at their best the All Blacks are among the best sides in the world, and if they bring their A game stand a good chance of winning their fourth World Cup. New forwards coach Jason Ryan has transformed their pack, although they do tend to struggle against the bigger sides.

But if the All Blacks win quick front foot ball they have the best attacking game in the world with the likes of Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan and Mark Telea capable of running riot, while No 8 Ardie Savea is a phenomenal player. The key for them is winning front foot ball, and if they can do that then they can unlock any defence in the world.

5. Scotland

Scotland are the most improved side in world rugby with Gregor Towsend having done a tremendous job in turning around their fortunes.

The Scots may not have the best pack in the world, although they often hold their own, but their attacking game is a sight to behold. With the likes of the mercurial Finn Russell and giant wing Duhan van der Merwe in their ranks Scotland have plenty of tries in them, and often score up to 30 points a game.

Despite their obvious qualities they have struggled to turn great performances into winning results although that is slowly changing. The big problem Scotland have is they have been drawn in the same pool as Ireland, South Africa, and a very dangerous Tonga side.

Only a fool would totally discount Scotland's chances of causing an upset but despite how good they have become, Ireland and South Africa are just a little bit better. Still, there's plenty of quality and attacking prowess in this Scotland side, and they certainly won't die wondering.

6. Argentina

The Pumas have made huge strides since joining the Rugby Championship. Over the last four years Argentina have beaten New Zealand (twice), South Africa, Australia, England, Scotland, and Wales.

Put simply, they are no mugs and on their day are capable of beating any side in the world. The biggest obstacle to their progression has been the Jaguares leaving Super Rugby, leaving their best players plying their trades all around the world, making it very difficult to get any sort of cohesion or continuity.

What Argentina are is a very difficult side to play, and they have a set of forwards who can match any side physically while there is a lot of finishing prowess out wide. Ironically, their biggest Achilles heel is their scrum but they do have arguably the world's best goal kicker in Emilano Boffelli.

Given they have ended up on the so-called right side of the draw, Argentina have every chance of reaching what would be their third World Cup semi-final.

7. Australia

The Wallabies have lost all five test matches since Eddie Jones took over from Dave Rennie this season but they aren't as bad a side as their results suggest.

Australia always have at least one big result in them at every World Cup, and have an abundance of talent throughout their squad. Their performances have been getting better each game, and one senses they just need the one big result to get things going in their favour.

One thing they have got is a dominant scrum while their forwards are more dominant than they are given credit for with the likes of gigantic La Rochelle lock Will Skelton, prop Taniela Tupou, openside Fraser McReight, and blindside Tom Hooper all top end forwards. They have been creating plenty of opportunities with things not quite sticking but that is not far off changing.

Could still be the dark horse at the World Cup with there being so much growth in their game.

8. England

I can already hear the screams of derision at ranking England higher than Fiji given they were beaten by the Pacific Islanders at Twickenham last weekend.

England are in disarray but they do have the tools to fix this problem. What Steve Borthwick has got is a strong pack of forwards, albeit not as strong as the likes of South Africa, France and Ireland, along with some quality players behind the scrum.

For all his issues, Owen Farrell is a world class player while George Ford is a real smart operator. Remember the 2007 World Cup where England got annihilated by the Springboks in the pool stages but ended up making the final?

I'm not saying that will happen this time but they've got the cattle to patch up their current issues, and at the very least make the knockout stages.

9. Wales

It has not been a pleasant two years for Wales to say the least, with the men in red having lost home tests to Italy and Georgia, respectively.

Since Warren Gatland returned to the helm, replacing Wayne Pivac, he has faced a race against time to get Wales into a place where they can be competitive at the World Cup. Gatland has pushed his side to the limit in brutal training camps over the summer which the New Zealander hopes will pay dividends this autumn.

Wales have some quality players in Louis Rees-Zammit, Dan Biggar, Liam Williams, Dewi Lake, Will Rowlands and Jac Morgan but they have fundamental issues at the set-piece, while their physicality in the front five hasn't been where it needs to be.

But Gatland has a tremendous track record at getting Wales to raise their game at the World Cup, and if they can beat a very dangerous Fiji side first up then anything is possible.

Rest of the pack

10. Fiji

Over the past fortnight Fiji have proven they can compete with the best of sides having performed admirably in defeat against France, and beaten England at Twickenham.

Make no bones about it, this will be the best prepared Fiji side ever to arrive at a World Cup. Fiji's devastating brilliance in broken field is no secret but this side is very comfortable playing a structured game.

Historically, their weaknesses has been the scrum and their game management but that is not the case this time with young outside-half Caleb Muntz a very capable all-round player who can play conservatively and loosely. They also have some serious talent in Edinburgh No 8 Viliame Mata, centre Semi Radradra along with wings Josua Tuisova and Selestino Ravutaumada.

11. Samoa

Samoa are no mugs, and should have beaten Ireland last weekend. The Pacific Islanders, who are coached by former London Irish centre Seilala Mapusua, are extremely physical while their scrum took Ireland to the cleaners last weekend.

They have a host of former All Blacks such as outside-half Lima Sopoaga, prop Charlie Faumuina, and Bristol Bears loose forward Steven Luatua. Having been drawn in the same pool as Argentina, England, and Japan they are up against it in terms of making the knockout stages but don't rule them out causing at least one upset.

12. Italy

Italy are the annual whipping boys of the Six Nations but have gradually been improving the level of their performances, even beating both Wales and Australia over the past 18 months.

The Azzurri have a capable pack of forwards who can give any opposition a bloody nose, while they are more dangerous than they've ever been behind the scrum, with Montpellier playmaker Paolo Garbisi and Toulouse star Ange Capuozzo one of the deadliest broken field runners in the world game.

They are unlikely to trouble either France or New Zealand in their pool.

13. Tonga

Tonga haven't exactly pulled up any trees in terms of results but on paper they have a very capable squad. They have benefited more than anyone else from the change in eligibility criteria, and have a host of former All Blacks and Wallabies in their squad.

The likes of Malakai Fekitoa, George Moala, Vaea Fifita, Charles Piutau, Adam Coleman, and Sam Lousi are top end players and would get into the starting sides of many tier one nations. They have been drawn in the pool of death alongside South Africa, Scotland, and Ireland so progressing to the quarter-finals is probably out of the equation but don't rule Tonga out from causing at least one upset.

14. Japan

The Brave Blossoms turned the rugby world upside down with their phenomenal victory over South Africa in 2015, which will rightly go down as one of the greatest upsets in the history of sport. Under Jamie Joseph they then went on to reach the quarter-finals for the first time four years ago, beating both Ireland and Scotland.

But they have struggled badly of late, and lack the forward power to make an impact in France. It is very unlikely they will be able to repeat their past exploits this time around.

15. Georgia

Georgia have dominated the second tier of European rugby and are pushing hard to join the Six Nations although that door remains firmly shut for now.

The Lelos have underlined their credentials with a stunning victory over Wales in Cardiff last November, and have a pack of forwards which can make life very uncomfortable for most sides. Their problem is they lack the cutting edge behind the scrum to be able to transfer their forward dominance into points.

16. Romania

Romania are keen to make an impact in France and have appointed former Scotland head coach Vern Cotter as a consultant. The Romanian's will be physical up-front but have they got the guile behind the scrum to make an impact?

Their key player is centre Taylor Gontineac who is part of Clermont Auvergne's system.

17. Portugal

A last-gasp penalty against the United States last year fired Portugal into their second World Cup. Portugal are coached by former France centre Patrice Lagisquet and have a number of players who ply their trade as professionals in France.

Their standout player is wing Rodrigo Marta who plays for Dax in the PRO D2, and is the top try scorer in Portugal's history.

18. Uruguay

Uruguay are regulars at the Rugby World Cup but have failed to make much of an impact. This time they have been drawn in a pool including New Zealand, France, Italy, and Namibia so reaching the last eight is virtually impossible.

By far their most accomplished player is Castres scrum-half Santiago Arata who has been likened in style to Antoine Dupont.

19. Namibia

This isn't the first World Cup Namibia have participated in but they have yet to win a game at rugby's showpiece event. This time they have plenty of experienced heads in their pack including Bayonne hooker Torsten van Jaarsveld, Johan Deysel and JC Greyling, Their best chance of claiming a result is bound to come against Uruguay.

20. Chile

Chile qualified for their first World Cup with after they overturned a 20-point deficit in the first leg of their World Cup qualifier to eventually beat the USA 52-51 on aggregate.

They are coached by Pablo Lemoine who appeared in two World Cup's as a player for Uruguay. Their key player could be outside-half Rodrigo Fernandez who received the award for men's try of the year after a tremendous individual score against the USA.

[An Watcher]

Focus on the Scotland game.  Play reserves v South Africa and try and be as fresh as possible for france/nz

[Captain Scarlet]

Unlike other years we seem to be going in kinda wary. Like the hype is being managed.

IF Sexton is even 90% and others stay in decent shape we shouldn't fear anyone.

[An Watcher]

I enjoy looking at the permutations so:

Semi final 1

A1  Fr/NZ
B2  SA/Ireland
C2  Wales/Fiji
D1  Eng/Arg/Jap

Semi final 2

A2  Fr/NZ
B1 SA/Ireland
C1 Australia
D2 Eng/Arg/Jap

Granted my major assumptions here are that Australia will win their group and Scotland will be eliminated.  It doesn't always work out like this but that's where we are.

On this basis, forget about SA, go for second spot and take our chances against either Fr/NZ.  A semi final without Australia would be better.  Makes the first game even more important as I'd prefer NZ than France

[seafoid]

Focus on the Scotland game.  Play reserves v South Africa and try and be as fresh as possible for france/nz

And banjax the reserves

[An Watcher]

Yep, if one side is going to get banjaxed then better the reserves than the first teamers

[weareros]

Ireland will know if France or New Zealand will win group, as that is first game. I suspect France will win. Ireland therefore need to beat SA and Scotland to win group. It sounds crazy to want to meet NZ ahead of France but France are at home and ahead of NZ on current form. Throwing the game against SA is not on. Scotland on current form could well beat Ireland too and send us home at group stages. It's a tough path but we've had easy paths and blew it. The fact we have a path that will ensure no complacency could be the best thing for this Irish team.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

If Scotland beat South Africa then that might throw a massive spanner in the works. Was it 2015 in the final group game when France and Ireland battered each other to avoid NZ on the QF and it was all a waste of time as NZ then smashed the wrecked French team and our grand prize was to be so badly broken that we couldn't lay a glove on an ordinary Argentina.

[seafoid]

Every RWC has gone arseways.
What went wrong in 99, 03, 07 ? I think 11 was too much gym work.

[5times5times]

Tickets for Scotland game in Paris.... how scarce/expensive are we talking?

[An Watcher]

Would you still get tickets for ireland Romania in bordeaux?

[5times5times]

Would you still get tickets for ireland Romania in bordeaux?

Seen 3 tickets on official site 30mins ago. ~50 yoyos