26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

five points

Quote from: Hound on January 20, 2020, 01:20:53 PM
Never heard that before.
Can you provide a link to substantiate (presumably you didn't just fabricate it) ?

Really? Both are well known. Why you'd suggest that I might fabricate this is beyond me.

"I consider myself to be pro-life in that I accept that the unborn child is a human life with rights. I cannot, therefore, accept the view that it is a simple matter of choice. There are two lives involved in any pregnancy. For that reason, like most people in the country, I do not support abortion on request or on demand."
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/leo-varadkar-s-shifting-view-on-abortion-will-be-key-to-campaign-1.3351288

"The question of adoption is ignored in this Bill because it is contentious. Sooner or later, it will have to be addressed. Every child has a father and a mother. Two men or two women cannot have a child together. A single person cannot have a child on their own unless they procure the pre-products of conception from an alternative source. This is an undeniable fact. [412] Unfortunately, sometimes in children's lives one of the parents is not interested in them or dies. Where a child is an orphan, the State should replace their mother and father. Every child has the right to a mother and father and, as much as is possible, the State should vindicate that right. That is a much more important right than that of two men or women having a family. That is the principle that should underline our laws regarding children and adoption. I am also uncomfortable about adoption by single people regardless of their sexual orientation. I do not believe I as a single man should adopt a child. The child should go to parents, a mother and father, to replace what the child had before."

https://ionainstitute.ie/what-leo-varadkar-said-about-the-right-to-a-mother-and-a-father-in-full/


Lar Naparka

Quote from: magpie seanie on January 20, 2020, 08:58:23 AM
Quote from: Rossfan on January 19, 2020, 11:08:42 PM
Either Leo or Micheál will be the next Taoiseach.
About the only question is will it be a Coalition or a Confidence/Supply thingy.

Sadly a depressing truth. As a nation we're institutionalised and addicted  to the FF/FG Punch and Judy show. Long past time we woke up and tried something different. It mightn't work either but you never know - it just might be better.
I'd love to think so too, Seanie, but I can't see it ever happening. This is a democracy so the TDs are elected by the people. Voters tend to vote for those who best mirror their own interests and opinions, if you know what I mean.
TDs reflect the values of those who elect them in simple English. So, if you don't have an electorate that is, in the main, opposed to the use of brown envelopes and underhand horsetrading, it's highly unlikely that that these they elect will prove to be any more honest or diligent.
It's hard to accept it but FF/FG rule the proverbial roost because they are the preferred choice of a huge swathe of the general public.
Ironically, probably 95% of the electorate would feel offended if you pointed out this obvious truth to them!
Nil Carborundum Illegitemi

Itchy

Quote from: five points on January 20, 2020, 01:10:19 PM
1) Varadkar opposed gay marriage and abortion when it was popular and profitable to do so. He is no better or worse than Micheal Martin.

2) The likes of Eoghan Murphy, Simon Harris, Richard Bruton and Regina Doherty are poor ads for the theory that Fine Gael politicians are on average more competent than anyone else.

3) Neither FG nor FF have any real ideology. See 1).

You are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. All I say is that I dislike both men and parties - but I have to decide where my No 2, 3, 4 go and thats what I was alluding to.

five points

Quote from: Itchy on January 20, 2020, 01:58:19 PM
You are entitled to your opinion as I am to mine. All I say is that I dislike both men and parties - but I have to decide where my No 2, 3, 4 go and thats what I was alluding to.

Exactly. And that's why I haven't questioned your choice of where your vote goes.

Rossfan

Looks like I'll be voting Fitzmaurice and Naughten 1 and 2.
After that I don't know as I swore never to vote FF again after 2007, FG have been awful on the 2 main crises affecting people (Housing and Health), and apart from a Green candidate I'd be wasting my vote on the rest. Mind you voting Green round here would also be a waste.
FG have someone I never heard of from Galway while FF have hopped Orla Leyden in for gender balance and presumably to dump Eugene Murphy.
Be great if we could get 3 Independents in.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

manfromdelmonte

#155
Quote from: Hound on January 20, 2020, 01:20:53 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on January 19, 2020, 11:53:07 PM
The water and wastewater still needs investment, but the pay nothing brigade reckon water falls for free so investing in it has not been a priority.
Yep. Of course, the Greens were one of the strongest supporters of water charges.
Interesting that some of the strongest anti-water charge brigade feel the Greens are the best.
But they may change their mind again when the Greens bring in their new taxes. But as you call them, "the pay nothing brigade" always seem to assume that someone else should pay it for them.

any sane person could see that water charges are necessary!! there are idiots out wasting water every day of the week
the greens were in favour of full state ownership, proper water allowances, water storage tanks for all new one off builds (quite sensible if you ask me) whereas FG wanted the private sector to get their slice.

Snapchap

Latest Poll out tonight:

Fianna Fáil 25 (~)
Fine Gael 23 (-6)
Sinn Fein 21 (+7)
Green Party 8 (~)
Labour 5 (-1)
Ind/Other 18 (~)

Polls are rarely accurate but two in a row now show a significant surge for SF. When the latest poll shows just four 8 points separating the top 3 parties, and a 13 point gap between the top 3 and the best of the rest, it makes the decisions by RTÉ and Virgin to exclude SF from their first debates all the more ridiculous and hard to justify.

Rossfan

Presumably the decision is based on the small percentage of the vote they got in the Locals and Euros real elections plus Maryloo is not going to be the next Taoiseach.
Then again a SF/Green/SDP/Labour Coalition might just be what the State needs.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Snapchap

#158
They'll always come up with ways to justify their decision but when two polls indicate that three parties are closely tied, then the decision to exclude one of them will appear to many people to be another example of the state funded, public service broadcaster, breaching it's own rules on impartiality. It isn't for RTÉ to decide who will be the next taoiseach, but they leave themselves wide open to the charge of trying to unduly influence who it will be.

Rossfan

In the real World i.e Local and Euro elections 2019 Shinners got 9.5% and 11.7% of the 1st Preference Vote.
Did half them stay at home or what?
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Snapchap

This is the real world. And I've already stayed that polls are rarely accurate, but when two polls show a tight contest between three parties that are far and away ahead of the rest, then rightly or wrongly, RTÉ leave themselves wide open to the charge facing them by excluding one of them.

I personally don't agree with debates that exclude any party leaders by a broadcaster that claims to impose a rule of strict impartiality upon itself, but if they are going to have such debates, and the latest research shows three parties are way ahead of the rest, then they should surely reflect that.

As I say, it's not RTÉ's job to decide who will be the next Taoiseach, but there will only ever be a choice of two when the main media outlets persist in embedding the notion in peoples head that that is the reality.

Yesterday I listened to a podcast from Today FM from the day the election was called. Their political correspondent outlined that peoples choices were FF or FG, and to use his exact words "or then you have this weird grouping of centre left parties, the Social Democrats, the Greens, Labour". Not a single mention of SF at any stage in the discussion, and the other parties outside of FF/FG  described as "weird". Thats the message that is being subliminally/overtly delivered to people; 'Your choice is FF or FG. Don't be thinking of anything else.'

The fact that FF and FG have been in bed together for the past four years I suspect means more people are now accepting that policy wise, you couldn't get a cigarette paper between them, and a real and useful and democratic debate cannot happen when SF as the next biggest party, are barred from participation.

Interestingly, a former head of TV at RTÉ tweeted last night "As a former Director of TV at RTÉ, I would expect, given the party's showing in these 2 polls, that Sinn Féin would be added to the Leaders' Debates." And followed it up by saying "I believe that a party with a 20% poll should be included. Let them all be questioned on a public platform together. Fair."

It's hardly a big ask and more importantly, hardly an undemocratic one.

yellowcard

The irony is that if SF were included in the debate then it would probably damage them in the election, since both the main parties have plenty of ammunition to attack them on. There may be a certain element of Official Ireland protecting it's own self interest by excluding them and making it a duel between FG/FF but it also suits the SF narrative being a party of protest to be able to cry foul.   

Rossfan

I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

magpie seanie

Quote from: Rossfan on January 21, 2020, 10:24:35 AM
I wonder where those opinion polls were carried out.
Doubtful if Shinners would get 5% here or in most Western or Midland constituencies.

Really?

2016 election - SF First Pref %
Roscommon/Galway - 6.7%;
Donegal - 26.7%;
Sligo/Leitrim - 17.8%;
Mayo - 10.1%;
Galway West - 8.9%;
Galway East - 5.9%;
Longford/Westmeath - 9.5%;
Cavan/Monaghan - 27.1%
Laois - 21.2%;
Offaly - 10.9%.

Fear Bun Na Sceilpe

The RTE decesion is playing into SF hands.

Let them on, they will crumble the more exposure they get. The RIC scandal was a joke, and a disgrace to even suggest it, but if SF gain based on this and the RTE debate rather than policy well people deserve what they get