Author Topic: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.  (Read 76191 times)

Rossfan

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Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1621 on: November 07, 2017, 02:25:49 PM »
All this talk of the middle ground well isnt it interesting that the lucid talk poll found more alliance green and others voters want a UI than stay in the UK if a vote was tomorrow. The unionist security blanket ie the alliance voters etc will be pro status quo and save the day - well looks like brexit has fecked that plan right up.

The main issue is that the border poll would at least match the GFA vote in getting a turnout in excess of 80%.  In such a situation, unionist would need to add 105,000 to their maximum vote to date and nationalists would need to add 169,000 votes to the max they attained in 2017.  To get these votes they will have to appeal to voters who have been turned off by the usual sectarian elections caused by the polarisation of DUP and SF electioneering.  APNI votes won't be enough to do this.  It is the higher turnout that makes the matter so different for all concerned.  Current non-voter who see little point in voting now particularly UUP and SDLP voters/supporters as both DUP and SDLP have maxed their votes at present.

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1622 on: November 07, 2017, 02:55:22 PM »
More on the Lucidtalk poll here
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/bill-white/irish-border-poll-sinn-fein-need-to-be-careful-plus-how-would-naomi-long-and-steven-agnew-vote-36297061.html

One problem is that people will only vote for a definite plan (unlike the English Brexit voters) and the unionists are trying to prevent discussion on such a plan.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1623 on: November 09, 2017, 04:33:10 PM »
We cant go wrong niw!!
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/a-united-ireland-inevitable-says-katie-hopkins-36295150.html

This Hopkins person was on the radio at lunchtime today. It is fairly clear that she and other Brexiteers are English nationalists who see NI as complicating their doing their own thing and who are happy to throw the unionists overboard on that basis.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

seafoid

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1624 on: November 09, 2017, 04:41:38 PM »
We cant go wrong niw!!
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/a-united-ireland-inevitable-says-katie-hopkins-36295150.html

This Hopkins person was on the radio at lunchtime today. It is fairly clear that she and other Brexiteers are English nationalists who see NI as complicating their doing their own thing and who are happy to throw the unionists overboard on that basis.
If the £9bn starts being discussed it won't matter how much plámásing Nigel Dodds does at Westminster.
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Rossfan

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heganboy

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1626 on: November 10, 2017, 02:52:32 AM »
This is getting interesting especially given the upcoming EU meeting in December.

Under current circumstances and legislation, a border poll will be called when the secretary of state believes that the majority will vote for a united Ireland.

Also as it is now, the agreement states that public of the rest of the UK and the Republic do not have a say, they are bound by the vote in the north.

However if the UK goes with Brexit, there is a view that the GFA does not hold as the UK is not a partner within the EU, and the GFA becomes null and void. There is no precedent for what happens in that scenario, and whether there is still a requirement for a border poll to unite the country, or whether the UK parliament could enact a united Ireland without a poll.

The EU documents leaked today show that the EU will not accept a soft border, and that they require that the island remains part of the single market to avoid a hard border.

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Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1627 on: November 11, 2017, 11:28:38 PM »
This is getting interesting especially given the upcoming EU meeting in December.

Under current circumstances and legislation, a border poll will be called when the secretary of state believes that the majority will vote for a united Ireland.

Also as it is now, the agreement states that public of the rest of the UK and the Republic do not have a say, they are bound by the vote in the north.

However if the UK goes with Brexit, there is a view that the GFA does not hold as the UK is not a partner within the EU, and the GFA becomes null and void. There is no precedent for what happens in that scenario, and whether there is still a requirement for a border poll to unite the country, or whether the UK parliament could enact a united Ireland without a poll.


I believe this position has been tested in the UK supreme court shortly after the referendum and found that there is little or nothing in GFA which prevents Brexit and vice versa.

Quote

The EU documents leaked today show that the EU will not accept a soft border, and that they require that the island remains part of the single market to avoid a hard border.

Hello pigeons, I'm a cat...

Actually the EU and RoI are only asking that NI would have to agree to the rules of a customs union/single market scenario which would allow trade to continue north - south with no need for additional customs checks. `This amounts to about 100 regulations that businesses in NI would have to observe to ensure they complied with EU legislation instead of being free of such legislation in a Brexit situation.  Highly likely that a trade agreement negotiated between UK and EU will ensure that all of UK will continue to follow the EU regulations to prevent need for customs checks at Dover which would cripple UK trade if introduced.  It is the intention of uK government in its Brexit Bill to transfer all EU red tape to UK law outside EU.

Avondhu star

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1628 on: November 12, 2017, 12:02:48 AM »
While it is possible that we could get a small majority in favour of a United Ireland we would still face the likelihood of a significant minorities who would support a violent response to any change
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armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1629 on: November 12, 2017, 12:19:37 AM »
While it is possible that we could get a small majority in favour of a United Ireland we would still face the likelihood of a significant minorities who would support a violent response to any change

Indeed. Which is why a steady approach is appropriate.
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

heganboy

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1630 on: November 12, 2017, 03:53:55 AM »
Owen,
It's a good point, but as you see from today's double down, the requirement is that the north stays in the common market, same terms as isle of man are available...
And your "actually" paragraph seems to be you setting out the difference between remain in the single market and agreeing to remain in the single market?
The paper contains the most explicit expression yet by the EU that the only way to avoid a hard border is for the UK to remain in the customs union and the single market, or at least for Northern Ireland to remain within those structures.
So are you agreeing or disagreeing?
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Owen Brannigan

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1631 on: November 12, 2017, 12:11:13 PM »
Owen,
It's a good point, but as you see from today's double down, the requirement is that the north stays in the common market, same terms as isle of man are available...
And your "actually" paragraph seems to be you setting out the difference between remain in the single market and agreeing to remain in the single market?
The paper contains the most explicit expression yet by the EU that the only way to avoid a hard border is for the UK to remain in the customs union and the single market, or at least for Northern Ireland to remain within those structures.
So are you agreeing or disagreeing?

From my reading from a number of sources there appears to be the opportunity for a typical NI fudge.  NI would not be part of the single market or customs union according to Brexit by UK but with a recognition that if NI was willing to retain all of the current and future regulations of EU single market then it could continue to trade freely with RoI and hence EU.  All of this is being resisted by DUP and by proxy the UK government.

The issue of where the border with UK sits is a major problem for unionists and UK government as the logic of the proposal is that it will occur at the sea and air ports on GB.  As expected unionists see this as a UI by the back door despite having the constitutional safeguard within the GFA.

The reality is that unionism really wants a return of the hard border to designate the territory that it wants to hold despite all claims that it wants no impediment.

However, the endgame for the UK government is a free trade deal with EU which would negate many of the problems of leaving the single market and will allow a new form of customs union for UK and EU.  Neither side can afford the trade shock of anything else.  Hence the UK wants to move the trade discussions before coming up with a solution to the Irish border.

Major issue for RoI hauliers will be the failure to negotiate a 'tunnel' through GB on their way to mainland Europe.  They cannot afford passing through two customs borders at either side of UK.  The longer sea route to the continent is much more expensive for haulage and if it becomes the main route then several Irish and GB ports will have to close due to lack of trade.

trentoneill15

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1632 on: November 21, 2017, 12:09:27 AM »
My view on things is to let the Scots have Antrim and Down then do a population swap, Catholics in east move west and Protestants in west move east, if that was done 300 years ago then there would have been no Troubles. There will never be a unified Irish people any other way, I just know that as a fact, any man with sense would see that.

Orior

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1633 on: November 21, 2017, 12:15:35 AM »
My view on things is to let the Scots have Antrim and Down then do a population swap, Catholics in east move west and Protestants in west move east, if that was done 300 years ago then there would have been no Troubles. There will never be a unified Irish people any other way, I just know that as a fact, any man with sense would see that.

And while they're swapping houses you could throw in a bit of wife swapping too, just as a sweetener and to spice things up.
Cover me in chocolate and feed me to the lesbians

armaghniac

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Re: A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.
« Reply #1634 on: November 21, 2017, 12:57:54 AM »
My view on things is to let the Scots have Antrim and Down then do a population swap, Catholics in east move west and Protestants in west move east, if that was done 300 years ago then there would have been no Troubles. There will never be a unified Irish people any other way, I just know that as a fact, any man with sense would see that.

And while they're swapping houses you could throw in a bit of wife swapping too, just as a sweetener and to spice things up.

Do you live in the East or the West Orior?  You could be moved to Fermanagh and get Arlene Foster!
if at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B