A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[armaghniac]

This middle ground voters deciding the North is balls.

That's like finding a few middle ground Catholics and trying to convert them into Muslims. Non-practising Catholics are still regarding as catholics, and most would still identify themselves as such. And the vast majority of middle ground unionists would never agree to a UI.

However as shown by the Lucidtalk poll there is a possible majority for a UI among under 45s, and so in general in a few years. But half of these people think SF are clowns, so who is to lead progress on this matter?

[Rossfan]

This middle ground voters deciding the North is balls.

Might be balls but it's a fact.
Around 44% voted  Unionist , 41 or 42% voted Nationalist in the 2 recent elections.
Neither have a majority.
How the other 14/16% vote in the Referendum decides.

[BennyCake]

This middle ground voters deciding the North is balls.

That's like finding a few middle ground Catholics and trying to convert them into Muslims. Non-practising Catholics are still regarding as catholics, and most would still identify themselves as such. And the vast majority of middle ground unionists would never agree to a UI.

However as shown by the Lucidtalk poll there is a possible majority for a UI among under 45s, and so in general in a few years. But half of these people think SF are clowns, so who is to lead progress on this matter?

Nobody.

No matter what Nationalist parties want, no matter how small, will never be agreed by unionists. And no unionist politican can be seen to budge an inch submitting to them. Any unionist politican that compromises on any issue, or dares to, doesn't last long and is ostracized. Thats the reality.

The only step towards a UI is a border poll in Britain. Unionists here need to hear that the vast majority in Britain don't not want them. Then we might get somewhere.

[BennyCake]

This middle ground voters deciding the North is balls.

Might be balls but it's a fact.
Around 44% voted  Unionist , 41 or 42% voted Nationalist in the 2 recent elections.
Neither have a majority.
How the other 14/16% vote in the Referendum decides.

Yes but one third of the population doesn't vote at all. So we don't know how they would vote in a border poll.

[Rossfan]

We'll only know if they'll vote and how  if/when a poll is held.

[Owen Brannigan]

Owen,
Great post, well made points, and a position that is ignored or unreached by SF. I have a different view and a different Outlook for the future, but I thoroughly respect that position and the logic behind it.

I'd love to hear what you would see as key issues that would sway your opinion one way or another in a UI vote. I firmly agree with the view often stated here that just a UI will not sway the voters.

One thing I heard recently and would be interested in hearing your views on, was in the event of any change in the situation in the north that both communities would seek guarantees from the EU. The poi t was made that whatever was on the table or committed to by politicians was not credible, and the trust factor of the middle ground was so low that neither Dublin nor Westminster would commit or deliver on promises made.

My greatest fear in a UI following a border poll is the violence that will ensue from the loyalist paramilitaries who have the capacity to engage in conflict on a scale and with a ferocity as greater as the IRA at the height of their powers.  They have the access to full trained members of the RUC and UDR who may be past active duty but who can train others to high levels.  While IRA violence and murder of mostly innocent people was horrendous, the type and nature of violence by loyalists had a depth that was rarely matched.  I would fear that loyalists could easily re-partition the 6 counties by falling back on the current polarisation on an East-West axis.  The current RoI government has little or no capacity to deal with inter-community violence on any scale.  Adams & Co had and possibly still have a false premise that when unionist/loyalist people are abandoned by Britain they will become Irish.  There was little chance of this happening during the last conflict and zero chance in any future move to a UI.  I don't want my children and grandchildren to live through a conflict worse than I experienced for 30 years.

Economic questions are also important and linked to that are questions in relation to health and the NHS.  We pay less tax that comparable people in RoI but our education, social care and health are completely free at the point of delivery.  RoI cannot match this at present and will be even less able to do so in a UI where it has to take fiscal responsibility for the six counties.

[Rossfan]

So that's one vote "we" can't count on

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Owen,
Great post, well made points, and a position that is ignored or unreached by SF. I have a different view and a different Outlook for the future, but I thoroughly respect that position and the logic behind it.

I'd love to hear what you would see as key issues that would sway your opinion one way or another in a UI vote. I firmly agree with the view often stated here that just a UI will not sway the voters.

One thing I heard recently and would be interested in hearing your views on, was in the event of any change in the situation in the north that both communities would seek guarantees from the EU. The poi t was made that whatever was on the table or committed to by politicians was not credible, and the trust factor of the middle ground was so low that neither Dublin nor Westminster would commit or deliver on promises made.

My greatest fear in a UI following a border poll is the violence that will ensue from the loyalist paramilitaries who have the capacity to engage in conflict on a scale and with a ferocity as greater as the IRA at the height of their powers.  They have the access to full trained members of the RUC and UDR who may be past active duty but who can train others to high levels.  While IRA violence and murder of mostly innocent people was horrendous, the type and nature of violence by loyalists had a depth that was rarely matched.  I would fear that loyalists could easily re-partition the 6 counties by falling back on the current polarisation on an East-West axis.  The current RoI government has little or no capacity to deal with inter-community violence on any scale.  Adams & Co had and possibly still have a false premise that when unionist/loyalist people are abandoned by Britain they will become Irish.  There was little chance of this happening during the last conflict and zero chance in any future move to a UI.  I don't want my children and grandchildren to live through a conflict worse than I experienced for 30 years.

Economic questions are also important and linked to that are questions in relation to health and the NHS.  We pay less tax that comparable people in RoI but our education, social care and health are completely free at the point of delivery.  RoI cannot match this at present and will be even less able to do so in a UI where it has to take fiscal responsibility for the six counties.

Doubt there would be much of a loyalist response and if there was not only would there position look even more ridiculous but any nonsense would soon be crushed without the help from the state to keep them going. Talk of repartition is again nonsense. Look at the demographics of Belfast where exactly are you going to draw the new boundaries??? 2 free states one in north down and one in northeast antrim?

[Owen Brannigan]

This middle ground voters deciding the North is balls.

That's like finding a few middle ground Catholics and trying to convert them into Muslims. Non-practising Catholics are still regarding as catholics, and most would still identify themselves as such. And the vast majority of middle ground unionists would never agree to a UI.

The first part of that is bang on. The second part is complete bollix. The northern electorate has been institutionalised from an early age into thinking that it's us V them and votes accordingly. Take the most devious, deceitful, embezzling arsehole you can find and stick a unionist rosette on him and he'll fly home in a Protestant ward. Take a raving, bigoted idiot fishwife and drape her in green and the catholics will line up to send her to Brussels. Sammy Wilson and Martina Anderson's repeated succes at the polls are clear examples of the vast swathes of oxygen thieves that masquerade as the voting public in Ni.

I have looked at the main elections over the last 20 years in terms of the votes to unionists and nationalists:



This information can be displayed in a graph:



From this data it can be seen that both factions have maxed their votes especially in the latest demographic and the two elections held in 2017.

The last referendum that affected the constitutional situation in Ireland was the GFA referendum in 1998.  A vote of this importance drew a huge turnout of 81% which has never been repeated since then.  It would not be unreasonable to assume that a border poll would produce a similar turnout.  If such a turnout is applied to the current electorate then the magic target of 50% + 1 would be 503,294 which is well above the votes achieved by either unionists or nationalists.  Either side would then have to persuade those in the middle ground who have not turned out to vote in almost 20 years to vote with them and not the other side.

Unionists would need over 104,000 more votes than they have ever managed to achieve in 20 years and nationalists would need over 168,000 more votes than they have ever gathered in 20 years.

[armaghniac]

My greatest fear in a UI following a border poll is the violence that will ensue from the loyalist paramilitaries who have the capacity to engage in conflict on a scale and with a ferocity as greater as the IRA at the height of their powers.  They have the access to full trained members of the RUC and UDR who may be past active duty but who can train others to high levels.  While IRA violence and murder of mostly innocent people was horrendous, the type and nature of violence by loyalists had a depth that was rarely matched.  I would fear that loyalists could easily re-partition the 6 counties by falling back on the current polarisation on an East-West axis.  The current RoI government has little or no capacity to deal with inter-community violence on any scale.  Adams & Co had and possibly still have a false premise that when unionist/loyalist people are abandoned by Britain they will become Irish.  There was little chance of this happening during the last conflict and zero chance in any future move to a UI.  I don't want my children and grandchildren to live through a conflict worse than I experienced for 30 years.

A UI tomorrow would be rather precipitate, and other than Brexit driven does not seem likely. In 15 years time people will have got used to the idea. The UDR was not well trained, I'd be more concerned with input from regular troops than 75 year old ex UDR. THe irish government may have limited resources, but would not hesitate to ask for UN/EU assistance.
It is true that loyalist violence was more savage, but was not well organised without British help. What would they be aiming for? They could aim for a banustan, but the British would not want them and the North Down set would rather ensure a good deal than live in a UDA ruled Transdniestria.

Economic questions are also important and linked to that are questions in relation to health and the NHS.  We pay less tax that comparable people in RoI but our education, social care and health are completely free at the point of delivery.  RoI cannot match this at present and will be even less able to do so in a UI where it has to take fiscal responsibility for the six counties.

The ROI government could easily remove any element of charges from first and second level education by increasing the third level fee to NI levels. The bulk of health expenditure is paid for by the State in the South and not all is paid in the North, the gap is not as great as you might think and is tending to close. There has to be a question over whether the present level of expenditure in NI will continue anyhow, as England will not continue to fund free prescriptions etc which they do not have themselves.

But I suppose the question is whether you want your children to be free citizens in their own prosperous country,  able to pay their own way,  or getting subsidies from English people who despise them.

Either side would then have to persuade those in the middle ground who have not turned out to vote in almost 20 years to vote with them and not the other side.

This is undoubtedly true.

[Therealdonald]

Reading on this thread makes me sick. We have actual GAA "supporters" outlining reasons why we shouldn't have a united ireland.when said aim of organisation was to promote a nationalist identity. Alls wring is that too many people live off far cheques from retiring from uk govt jobs. Turned a lot of you into what African-Americans call "Uncle Tom's" . I'd like to name all you naysayers "Uncle Mountbatten's" . Makes me sick to my stomach. We have the constant kicking of SF, and how they're not a political party. Well I can think of 20 SF members who literally laid their lives on the line for Catholics in the North so we could have a fair shot at life, name me a politician from either FF or FG who can say the same. You will all rue the day you didn't support SF when they're in the Dail and you're on the outside looking in.

For all of my adult life I have had 'a fair shot at life'.  I have availed of free healthcare, free primary and secondary education and a funded third level education to primary degree level.  I have worked for 34 years and make a considerable contribution to society through always paying income tax and national insurance contributions and through my work I ensured that a considerable number of 'Catholics in the North had a fair shot at life'.  I have never relied on SF for any of these privileges that many across the world will never have and I never felt inclined to support any campaign of violence that has caused nothing but misery and grief for those who were victims of the violence from 1967 to date. So, SF and their associates have never done anything that has improved my life nor the public service that I provided for 34 years. I could give you plenty instances where they have made life worse for Catholic people over the last 40 years and particularly since they were given the opportunity to run the government of this region.

The people of Ireland votes overwhelmingly in 1998 to allow 6 counties to be governed by the UK government until a majority of the people in that region decided otherwise and the people of the 26 counties decided that they wanted the 6 counties to join them.  This vote denies any group continuing with or resorting to a campaign of violence any form of legitimacy to base their campaign on previous votes or elections or previous campaigns. 

A vote for a UI may occur within the next ten years and it will be decided by those in the middle ground in N.Ireland who you and your fellow travellers may term as "Uncle Tom's" or "Uncle Mountbatten's" from the security you seek in your Internet keyboard warrior anonymity and additional username. 

So, instead of claiming the moral and political high ground from the tiny mound where you have parked your tanks to assault the middle ground you and your mirror images within the DUP would be better considering how you can persuade the middle ground to shift in your directions.  As others have stated, the middle ground of the population between SF and DUP will decide the destiny of this tiny region when a border poll is eventually held. 

There are more middle ground potential voters in the non-voting section of our electorate than will be persuaded to turn out for SF or DUP in the sectarian head count that exists in elections in N.Ireland.  This section of the population have become disillusioned with sectarian politics as SF and DUP have dominated the elected Assembly.  Many live in areas where their preferred candidate will never be elected and they have stopped voting or see no point in casting a vote for a losing candidate.  Both DUP and SF in the last year have virtually maxed out their voting bases in the last assembly and Westminster elections.  SDLP, UUP, APNI and GP are unable to motivate former voters to come back to the ballot box and new voters to come out to vote because they are in decline and cannot as individual groupings hope to over turn the power block of DUP and SF.  SDLP, UUP and APNI carry too much baggage of the past despite SDLP and UUP being responsible for delivering the GFA for the eventual benefit of SF/DUP.  However, you can be sure that a border poll will be enough to motivate these people to make a return possibly for the first time since the GFA referendum in 1998.

Sorry I'm only seeing your response now Owen. I dont know where to start but I'll make a stab at it anyway:
1. You say you have worked for 34 years. Simple maths, you graduated at 23+34=57. So you graduated in 1983 sLay roughly? 2 years after the hunger strike....how many of your primary school class went to third level education (I'm assuming you went to a Catholic School)
2. You provided a public service but don't say where or in what arena? If you prepared Catholics for a fair shot at life, tell me are Catholics better prepared for it now in year 34 of your service or year 1?
3. You ask me to try and persuade a middle ground voter why they should vote for a United Ireland? If they are an Irishman or woman at all why would they need persuading?
4. I can call these middle ground voters whatever I like.Full stop.
5. You talk about the SDLP and UUP voters not being able to motivate the middle ground voters? They are too busy drinking Cointreau in the Kings Head talking about a great day they had at Down Royal whilst wishing that horrible twat O'Leary hadn't won the JN Chase.
5. And finally this point, if I choose to use a username or call middle of the ground voters as ''Uncle Mountbatten's" then I will.  make no apologies for my SF beliefs, but I won't listen to the nonsense that somehow SF should try and win over these middle of the road types, who in the 80's, 90's and 00's and now looked down their noses at them. Screw that. Have conviction and belief, dont bend for Rory McIlroy's....aim for Lowry's and Harrington's or Canning's. Go to the south and build up from there, because heaven knows it won't be hard.

[JPGJOHNNYG]

All this talk of the middle ground well isnt it interesting that the lucid talk poll found more alliance green and others voters want a UI than stay in the UK if a vote was tomorrow. The unionist security blanket ie the alliance voters etc will be pro status quo and save the day - well looks like brexit has fecked that plan right up.

[Rossfan]

But "we" still need to have a coherent blueprint of what the new All Ireland entity will look like to ensure the non aligned middle ground erstwhile don't take fright in the polling booth and say "feck it better to stick with the devil we know"

[Rossfan]

We cant go wrong niw!!
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/a-united-ireland-inevitable-says-katie-hopkins-36295150.html

[Owen Brannigan]

All this talk of the middle ground well isnt it interesting that the lucid talk poll found more alliance green and others voters want a UI than stay in the UK if a vote was tomorrow. The unionist security blanket ie the alliance voters etc will be pro status quo and save the day - well looks like brexit has fecked that plan right up.

The main issue is that the border poll would at least match the GFA vote in getting a turnout in excess of 80%.  In such a situation, unionist would need to add 105,000 to their maximum vote to date and nationalists would need to add 169,000 votes to the max they attained in 2017.  To get these votes they will have to appeal to voters who have been turned off by the usual sectarian elections caused by the polarisation of DUP and SF electioneering.  APNI votes won't be enough to do this.  It is the higher turnout that makes the matter so different for all concerned.  Current non-voter who see little point in voting now particularly UUP and SDLP voters/supporters as both DUP and SDLP have maxed their votes at present.