Brexit.

[guy crouchback]

i think it is tomorrow, leaked reports of the ''third way'' show it to be just the first and second ways mangled together, completly unworkable and already rejected by the EU.

whats going on at the moment in the uk is one of two things.
1. one of the greatest bits of political maneuvering ever seen where the PM is playing a kind of 3 dimensional chess game so complex and intricate that it is almost beyond the understanding of most mortals. it involves keeping every side wrong footed by giving the appearance of total chaos while all the time steering every party ( eu, the opposition, various factions in the Tories, the media etc)into a position where she can then unleash her grand plan at the last minute and secure a deal that will not lead to the near collapse of her countries society. 

2. may and her cabinet are the worst and most useless collection of politicians the UK has ever had and she is on course for a hard Brexit next march for which she has left her country completely un-prepared, the result of which could be utterly catastrophic for almost the whole of British society, this she would have done in a pathetic attempt to hold onto power for as long as possible.

[johnnycool]

i think it is tomorrow, leaked reports of the ''third way'' show it to be just the first and second ways mangled together, completly unworkable and already rejected by the EU.

whats going on at the moment in the uk is one of two things.
1. one of the greatest bits of political maneuvering ever seen where the PM is playing a kind of 3 dimensional chess game so complex and intricate that it is almost beyond the understanding of most mortals. it involves keeping every side wrong footed by giving the appearance of total chaos while all the time steering every party ( eu, the opposition, various factions in the Tories, the media etc)into a position where she can then unleash her grand plan at the last minute and secure a deal that will not lead to the near collapse of her countries society. 

2. may and her cabinet are the worst and most useless collection of politicians the UK has ever had and she is on course for a hard Brexit next march for which she has left her country completely un-prepared, the result of which could be utterly catastrophic for almost the whole of British society, this she would have done in a pathetic attempt to hold onto power for as long as possible.

Unless there's some Machiavellian brains behind May that we're not aware of it's hard to see option 1 being a possibility.

[seafoid]

There is more and more talk of the Tory party splitting
The Tory graph is fascinating
https://youtu.be/zuuObGsB0No

[Denn Forever]

If May resigned now, who could blame her?

[seafoid]

If May resigned now, who could blame her?

The Telegraph, the Daily Mail, the Times, the Sun

It's interesting reading stuff written 2 years ago

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3659091/The-day-quiet-people-stood-roared-RICHARD-LITTLEJOHN-praises-spoken-EU-referendum-devastating-effect.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3659075/Humbled-arrogance-highly-able-leader-rescued-economy-Cameron-ultimately-ruined-lack-conviction-poor-judgement-weakness-Etonian-cronies.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3658316/Pinch-dreaming-s-day-Britain-stood-proud-tall-reclaimed-birthright.html

When May became leader the spin was impossibly optimistic. In reality she is a prisoner of the Tory headbangers.

[GJL]

It is all heading to May shafting the DUP at the latest possible stage. She will agree to special status for N.Ireland to stay in the CU whilst the rest of the UK leaves. The DUP will go mental but ultimately will not bring down the government as a JC led Labour party is their worst nightmare. Effectively a border in the Irish Sea.

[Hound]

It is all heading to May shafting the DUP at the latest possible stage. She will agree to special status for N.Ireland to stay in the CU whilst the rest of the UK leaves. The DUP will go mental but ultimately will not bring down the government as a JC led Labour party is their worst nightmare. Effectively a border in the Irish Sea.

Very wishful thinking.

That was very acheiveable but the Irish overplayed their hand by celebrating the above as a victory before it was set in stone. FG in particular, and Coveney in particular.

Too many Tories have now said the above is out of the question.

[bennydorano]

It's still the best option. Politicians being politicians will slap a bit of gloss on it and throw it back out there at some point.

I think there's a reckoning coming for the DUP myself, they're going to be told at some point to back something really unpalatable  - Back us or bring us down.

[Farrandeelin]

When is the next EU summit?

[haranguerer]

It's still the best option. Politicians being politicians will slap a bit of gloss on it and throw it back out there at some point.

I think there's a reckoning coming for the DUP myself, they're going to be told at some point to back something really unpalatable  - Back us or bring us down.

More likely they bring themselves down, and when the dust settles the DUP find themselves back to having zero influence and completely up shit creek

[Denn Forever]

When is the next EU summit?

Was it not a week ago?

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/06/government-has-no-clue-how-to-execute-brexit-without-harm-airbus-chief

The Airbus chief executive, Tom Enders, doubled down on the aerospace giant's warning that it could pull out of the UK in the event of a hard Brexit, accusing the government of having "no clue" on how to leave the EU.

Speaking at the company's briefing in London before the Farnborough air show, Enders said: "The sun is shining brightly on the UK, the English team is progressing towards the final, the RAF is preparing to celebrate its centenary and HMG still has no clue, no consensus on how to execute Brexit without severe harm."

[guy crouchback]

When is the next EU summit?

the next summit is not until the autumn (october). at this summit the final deal will have to be ready to be singed off on by the leaders of the 27 before each leader goes back to have it ratified by their own parliaments, in some cases this may also include regional parliaments.

in the event that there was no final deal by this October summit but one was close its possible negotiations could be pushed out by a couple of weeks but realistically mid to end November would be the absolute deadline to give time to get it ratified by all 27 parliaments.
28 of course if you count the uk it would still have to be ratified by them.

article 50 is a ticking clock that cannot be stopped. if there is no agreement the uk crash out, full hard brexit. the transition period ( at present up to end dec 2020) will only apply if the uk sign the withdrawal agreement ( Irish backstop, divorce bill, eu citizens rights).
the Brits know full well that a crashout hard brexit is not an option, so even if they want to kick the can down the road a bit with the transition they will have to commit to the withdrawal agreement.

[GJL]

News flash that David Davis the Brexit secretary has resigned. Watch the shit hit the fan tomorrow. This will finish May.

[Farrandeelin]

News flash that David Davis the Brexit secretary has resigned. Watch the shit hit the fan tomorrow. This will finish May.

This would be great entertainment if it wasn't so serious.