China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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Main Street

Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2020, 03:25:49 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 27, 2020, 01:33:49 PM
Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 01:16:08 PM
QuoteItaly = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.


Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

I've a cousin working in one of the UK hospitals that has some of the 13 UK patients.

He reckons the total cases number and also the total recovered number are misleading. The vast majority of people who get this only have a mild illness, so most of them don't get picked up. He reckons the Italy number is closer to 5,000 cases and then obviously the vast majority of them either recovering or recovered.

Sometime between mid and end of March he's very confident it will be downgraded in severity. Of course there is a risk he could be wrong, but so far he says he's not worried.
I think your relation talks sense.
The majority of people already have varying degrees of a naturally acquired immunity, regardless of whatever strain is in the air. It's a generally acccepted truth that a person who has done a strain of one flu type learns an immune response to that strain for the future  and that learned immunity will also be of varying benefit in the event of exposure to another strain.
A vaccination does not grant a learned immunity even to same flu strain - therefore the repeat vaccinations and is of no benefit with other flu strains.
According to an article in Lanclet, most at risk from developing serious patholgy or even death is the same as with any flu,  the inveterate nicotine addicts/smokers,  older people with underlying issues which are being medicated and people with underlying respiratory issues, also medicated.

macdanger2

Quote from: Main Street on February 27, 2020, 05:50:01 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2020, 03:25:49 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 27, 2020, 01:33:49 PM
Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 01:16:08 PM
QuoteItaly = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.


Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

I've a cousin working in one of the UK hospitals that has some of the 13 UK patients.

He reckons the total cases number and also the total recovered number are misleading. The vast majority of people who get this only have a mild illness, so most of them don't get picked up. He reckons the Italy number is closer to 5,000 cases and then obviously the vast majority of them either recovering or recovered.

Sometime between mid and end of March he's very confident it will be downgraded in severity. Of course there is a risk he could be wrong, but so far he says he's not worried.
I think your relation talks sense.
The majority of people already have varying degrees of a naturally acquired immunity, regardless of whatever strain is in the air. It's a generally acccepted truth that a person who has done a strain of one flu type learns an immune response to that strain for the future  and that learned immunity will also be of varying benefit in the event of exposure to another strain.
A vaccination does not grant a learned immunity even to same flu strain - therefore the repeat vaccinations and is of no benefit with other flu strains.
According to an article in Lanclet, most at risk from developing serious patholgy or even death is the same as with any flu,  the inveterate nicotine addicts/smokers,  older people with underlying issues which are being medicated and people with underlying respiratory issues, also medicated.

This virus is not from the same family of viruses as the seasonal flu so there is no underlying immunity that you're referring to

armaghniac

Quote from: macdanger2 on February 27, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
This virus is not from the same family of viruses as the seasonal flu so there is no underlying immunity that you're referring to

Which is precisly the problem. When a dose went around 10 years ago it was a first cousin of a variant from 1968 and many older people had some protection as a result. Nobody has any immunity to this, which is why the experts expect 60% to get it.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Milltown Row2

Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2020, 06:09:47 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 27, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
This virus is not from the same family of viruses as the seasonal flu so there is no underlying immunity that you're referring to

Which is precisly the problem. When a dose went around 10 years ago it was a first cousin of a variant from 1968 and many older people had some protection as a result. Nobody has any immunity to this, which is why the experts expect 60% to get it.

60% of the world population?
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

armaghniac

#169
Quote from: Milltown Row2 on February 27, 2020, 07:01:39 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 27, 2020, 06:09:47 PM
Quote from: macdanger2 on February 27, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
This virus is not from the same family of viruses as the seasonal flu so there is no underlying immunity that you're referring to

Which is precisly the problem. When a dose went around 10 years ago it was a first cousin of a variant from 1968 and many older people had some protection as a result. Nobody has any immunity to this, which is why the experts expect 60% to get it.

60% of the world population?

Yes, over the course of the next year or two. Perhaps the people in Tristan de Cunha will not get it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/?utm_source=feed

First case confirmed in 6 counties.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Aristo 60


BennyCake

Quote from: Aristo 60 on February 27, 2020, 08:55:43 PM
Quote from: Aristo 60 on February 25, 2020, 04:09:42 PM
shut the airports.

now.

A week too late.

I'm away to live in the childer's Treehouse until this blows over.

Main Street

Quote from: macdanger2 on February 27, 2020, 06:00:02 PM
Quote from: Main Street on February 27, 2020, 05:50:01 PM
Quote from: Hound on February 27, 2020, 03:25:49 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 27, 2020, 01:33:49 PM
Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 01:16:08 PM
QuoteItaly = 12 dead, 3 recovered.

Italy 453 cases, 12 dead, 40 recovered.


Again - number of cases is irrelevant.

You do not know which way those outstanding cases will go.

Excellent on the shoot up in recovered numbers.

I've a cousin working in one of the UK hospitals that has some of the 13 UK patients.

He reckons the total cases number and also the total recovered number are misleading. The vast majority of people who get this only have a mild illness, so most of them don't get picked up. He reckons the Italy number is closer to 5,000 cases and then obviously the vast majority of them either recovering or recovered.

Sometime between mid and end of March he's very confident it will be downgraded in severity. Of course there is a risk he could be wrong, but so far he says he's not worried.
I think your relation talks sense.
The majority of people already have varying degrees of a naturally acquired immunity, regardless of whatever strain is in the air. It's a generally acccepted truth that a person who has done a strain of one flu type learns an immune response to that strain for the future  and that learned immunity will also be of varying benefit in the event of exposure to another strain.
A vaccination does not grant a learned immunity even to same flu strain - therefore the repeat vaccinations and is of no benefit with other flu strains.
According to an article in Lanclet, most at risk from developing serious patholgy or even death is the same as with any flu,  the inveterate nicotine addicts/smokers,  older people with underlying issues which are being medicated and people with underlying respiratory issues, also medicated.

This virus is not from the same family of viruses as the seasonal flu so there is no underlying immunity that you're referring to
Well, the evidence points to that there is immunity.There are degrees of immunity and that is blatantly evident in that the vast majority of those who get exposed to this virus either can adapt with no symptoms or experience mild symptoms. That is what defines a good immune reaction.
And the evidence as recorded, is that immune response learned from experiencing one flu  can be used in part  against another flu strain, family diffferences notwithstanding.

balladmaker

Quote from: BennyCake on February 27, 2020, 09:48:00 PM
Quote from: Aristo 60 on February 27, 2020, 08:55:43 PM
Quote from: Aristo 60 on February 25, 2020, 04:09:42 PM
shut the airports.

now.

A week too late.

I'm away to live in the childer's Treehouse until this blows over.

I reckon a few months on Tory Island could be in order.

Dire Ear

Newcastle introduce handshake ban
Well that's exactly what you should now expect as Newcastle have introduced a training ground handshake ban in an attempt to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

"There's a ritual here that everybody shakes hands with everybody as soon as we see each other every morning - we've stopped that on the advice of the doctor," Bruce said

toby47

Mainland China
Total Number of cases - 78,824
Deaths 2.5%
Unresolved 50.6%
Recoveries 45.9%

South Korea
Total Number of cases - 2,337
Deaths 0.6%
Unresolved 98.5%
Recoveries 0.9%

Italy
Total Number of cases - 655
Deaths 2.6%
Unresolved 90.5%
Recoveries 6.9%

Iran
Total Number of cases - 270
Deaths 9.6%
Unresolved 72.2%
Recoveries 18.1%

Japan
Total Number of cases - 226
Deaths 1.8%
Unresolved 88.5%
Recoveries 9.7%

Main Street

The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

armaghniac

Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

Taylor

Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.

Like sitting beside a person in an airplane for over two hours?  :o

armaghniac

Quote from: Taylor on February 28, 2020, 11:22:53 AM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 28, 2020, 11:08:00 AM
Quote from: Main Street on February 28, 2020, 10:57:05 AM
The idea or one idea about enforcing isolation on an infected area is to buy time for unaffected areas and allow for prepartions. What is the rationale for calling off the rugby international because some thousands of Italians would be attending? yet the Italians will be travelling to Ireland in their thousands and presumably in close social contact with Irish people over a period of 48 hours or so. Either impose a travel ban or allow the mingling. The stunt to ban the game  just smacks of phony finger in the dyke grandstanding.

Walking past a person in a shop is not the same as sitting beside them for 2 hours.
Switzerland has banned events of >1000 people from now. There is a balance in these things.

Like sitting beside a person in an airplane for over two hours?  :o

That too, hence the tracing of the people sitting beside the woman from Belfast. It is harder to trace who was sitting beside you at a game.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B