China Coronavirus

[seafoid]

   https://www.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d

   Covid-19 is transmitted more readily between humans than Sars, though it is less virulent. Computer modelling suggests that each new case infected 2.5 other people on average in the early stages of the epidemic, though Chinese authorities have greatly reduced this "reproduction number" through drastic action to isolate cases and trace their contacts.

The virus has caused severe respiratory disease in about 20 per cent of patients and killed more than 3 per cent of confirmed cases. Sars killed 10 per cent of infected individuals. Older people, whose immune defences have declined with age, and those with underlying health conditions are much more vulnerable than the young.

[highorlow]

The government's across the world I feel have shown a serious level of neglect. It's been a case of "oh we will do something about it when it comes here". It was always coming and they did the bare minimum.

They managed to keep the death rate so far (based on the cases reported) to 1.3% compared to 3.5% in the highly infected areas. Please expand on the neglect?

[RadioGAAGAA]

When people like you are proven wrong when facts are pointed out to them the standard reply is "shut up".

These are "facts" in the Donald Trump mode of facts.

Unfortunately, this is too important for blatantly incorrect and misguided views such as yours be allowed space to be considered credible. They are not.

[trailer]

Death rate is 2-3%.

Everyone should dial down the hysteria. People cancelling holidays etc. Complete madness.

[Solo_run]

The government's across the world I feel have shown a serious level of neglect. It's been a case of "oh we will do something about it when it comes here". It was always coming and they did the bare minimum.

They managed to keep the death rate so far (based on the cases reported) to 1.3% compared to 3.5% in the highly infected areas. Please expand on the neglect?

Two days ago the government were not even doing and screening tests for the virus at airports. Screening people for the virus would at least be a proactive approach.

The death rates were always going to be lower in less effected areas ffs.

[RadioGAAGAA]

Death rate is 2-3%.

Which is astronomically high (and I'm not even sure its that low), but its definitely north of 1%.

But taking that number - that is between 1 in 30 and 1 in 50.


Many have indirect families (parents/inlaws/nephews/nieces/uncles/aunts) well in excess of 50.
Everyone will have a network of more than 200 people (between work, family & social lives) that they know.

At those odds, if it spreads out - then everyone will lose at least one person, probably several people, to this.


There are 38 users on the board right now. If this spreads out and gets to everyone, then at those odds one of them won't be here next year due to Corona virus.



edit: Clarity between mortality rate and infections

[highorlow]

Everyone should dial down the hysteria. People cancelling holidays etc. Complete madness.

I'm not trying to diminish the thing in any way but looking at the numbers (which is crude) and then comparing it to the level of hysteria the level of panic and hysteria is disproportionate, that's all I'm saying.

If people want to maintain a level of hysteria and panic then feel free but coming on here to do it is inappropriate as the vast majority of posters are level headed individuals who don't do hysterics.

[highorlow]

The death rates were always going to be lower in less effected areas ffs.

[five points]

Death rate is 2-3%.

Which is astronomically high (and I'm not even sure its that low), but its definitely north of 1%.

But taking that number - that is between 1 in 30 and 1 in 50.


Many have indirect families (parents/inlaws/nephews/nieces/uncles/aunts) well in excess of 50.
Everyone will have a network of more than 200 people (between work, family & social lives) that they know.

Odds are at that rate that everyone will lose at least one person, probably several people, to this.

This assumes that literally everyone catches it.  A huge assumption.

[RadioGAAGAA]

This assumes that literally everyone catches it.  A huge assumption.

Yeah, sorry, was in the midst of editing it to clarify that when you posted.

But if the "horse on" brigade have their way, then it likely will reach most of the population.

[trailer]

Death rate is 2-3%.

Which is astronomically high (and I'm not even sure its that low), but its definitely north of 1%.

But taking that number - that is between 1 in 30 and 1 in 50.


Many have indirect families (parents/inlaws/nephews/nieces/uncles/aunts) well in excess of 50.
Everyone will have a network of more than 200 people (between work, family & social lives) that they know.

At those odds, if it spreads out - then everyone will lose at least one person, probably several people, to this.


There are 38 users on the board right now. If this spreads out and gets to everyone, then at those odds one of them won't be here next year due to Corona virus.



edit: Clarity between mortality rate and infections

When I went to school 2% was 2 in 100.
Most of those people have underlying health conditions and are aged. It is not some super killer disease that wipes everyone out.
 

[Solo_run]

The death rates were always going to be lower in less effected areas ffs.

Has nothing to do with what the government has been doing. Read the earlier pages of this topic to find out why.

[AFM]

Seriously you should get in contact with WHO.

I'm sure they can do the maths, in the other 100 or so infected countries there are 34 deaths so far. That includes merica where 11 have happened. If you need to still panic over those numbers then panic away.

You not good with percentages of those affected!

[APM]

Death rate is 2-3%.

Everyone should dial down the hysteria. People cancelling holidays etc. Complete madness.

That is double or three times the death rate associated with the flu - that is a significant impact.  Think about it, instead of 1 in 100, it is 1 in 50 or 1 in 30.  Starts to feel a bit closer to home when you get into those kind of ratios.  Among the vulnerable population, that is an even greater impact.  People are right to be worried - because behind this figure will be a huge number needing hospital admissions and if the health service cannot cope, then it creates a heightened risk of bad patient outcomes.   

You are right about hysteria being unhelpful, but as I said earlier, the panic could develop just as organically as the disease itself and with it, a greater risk of a systemic breakdown health systems and other public services.  One issue could feed off the other and that's the bit that would concern me. 

[Boycey]

I'd be surprised if the World Health Organization aren't following this thread to keep themselves informed...