China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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GetOverTheBar

Quote from: johnnycool on February 26, 2020, 09:15:02 AM
Keep and eye on this;

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Great guide - also interesting how we manage to get loads of people to think this is doomsday, suppose it makes more interesting news when there are 30k of 80k completely confirmed clear of the virus.

armaghniac

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on February 26, 2020, 02:30:46 PM
Quote from: johnnycool on February 26, 2020, 09:15:02 AM
Keep and eye on this;

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Great guide - also interesting how we manage to get loads of people to think this is doomsday, suppose it makes more interesting news when there are 30k of 80k completely confirmed clear of the virus.

This is not going to wipe out the human race.
However, if it comes in a wave so that hospitals cannot cope then a lot of vulnerable people may die.
If you take somewhere like Singapore which was not overwhelmed and has a good health system, then it is manageable. The aim in Europe is to do likewise. However, in Italy it got going without anyone spotting it, even though flights to China had been stopped.

Singapore
Confirmed: 91
Deaths: 0
Recovered: 62
Existing: 29
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

RadioGAAGAA

#137
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on February 26, 2020, 12:39:45 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 26, 2020, 12:25:09 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on February 26, 2020, 12:15:52 PM
Why aren't people as panicked about seasonal influenza? It kills far far more people every year than Coronavirus ever will.

The flu kills around 1 in 50000 people it infects.

This kills around 1 in 50 people it infects.


As of the latest information there are 80,239 infections (908 considered new).

Total worldwide deaths are 2,666 in China and 34 Otherwise Worldwide

80,239 / 2700 = 29.71

1 in 29, now I don't have the time but I bet if we profile the 2,700 deaths nearly all will be over 60 and already sick which lowers this number even further as we consider ourselves a relatively healthy nation with a fairly decent immunisation scheme from birth.

No.

That is completely wrong. You cannot measure mortality rates by including people who have yet to recover (or yet to die I suppose, but lets be optimistic!).

As of what I have to hand, there are 2,770 deaths and 30,311 cured. That is nearly 10%.
i usse an speelchekor

Dire Ear

Coronavirus: Ireland v Italy Six Nations games postponed over health concerns

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 26, 2020, 03:36:31 PM
Quote from: GetOverTheBar on February 26, 2020, 12:39:45 PM
Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 26, 2020, 12:25:09 PM
Quote from: RedHand88 on February 26, 2020, 12:15:52 PM
Why aren't people as panicked about seasonal influenza? It kills far far more people every year than Coronavirus ever will.

The flu kills around 1 in 50000 people it infects.

This kills around 1 in 50 people it infects.


As of the latest information there are 80,239 infections (908 considered new).

Total worldwide deaths are 2,666 in China and 34 Otherwise Worldwide

80,239 / 2700 = 29.71

1 in 29, now I don't have the time but I bet if we profile the 2,700 deaths nearly all will be over 60 and already sick which lowers this number even further as we consider ourselves a relatively healthy nation with a fairly decent immunisation scheme from birth.

No.

That is completely wrong. You cannot measure mortality rates by including people who have yet to recover (or yet to die I suppose, but lets be optimistic!).

As of what I have to hand, there are 2,770 deaths and 30,311 cured. That is nearly 10%.

The context is that 1.4 bn people live in China with 78k infections there - that is an extremely low percentage in what is accepted as the breeding ground for the virus. Personally I would have expected much greater considering the relative poverty and diet of the Chinese (I have been there).

WHO have now said more 'new' infections are happening outside China than inside.

Already it looks like this coronavirus has peaked at source going on the above, there is no need for the scaremongering. The issue here is some people seem to think this will greatly affect their lives here, it will not and you'll possibly never hear of this kind of thing again when it runs its course. Of course new cases will continue to pop up for the next few days probably in places like India and Pakistan/Afganistan especially, maybe even weeks but it will run it's course.

Greater context, over the past say, 8 years in Syria some 300-500k people have been killed - but that can't harm you here so nobody really cares and to much, much less media issues. They certainly are not helping with the wild numbers being thrown around.

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: GetOverTheBar on February 26, 2020, 05:18:39 PM
The context is that 1.4 bn people live in China with 78k infections there - that is an extremely low percentage in what is accepted as the breeding ground for the virus. Personally I would have expected much greater considering the relative poverty and diet of the Chinese (I have been there).

WHO have now said more 'new' infections are happening outside China than inside.

The context is that the Chinese have completely isolated vast areas of the country. The Western world will absolutely not be as quick to do that - both between govts not ordering it and people not accepting it. At this point, I assume its out across Europe and indeed within Ireland (the ski-trippers at midterm will have brought it back and spread).


Italy probably has in excess of 1000 people with it (between diagnosed and yet to be diagnosed) - and there are discussions about maybe closing the border. By the time they do decide to, that horse will have long since bolted and foaled.

While some countries (Singapore for instance), are 0 dead for 62 recovered - Italy are currently running at 12 dead for 1 recovered.
i usse an speelchekor

highorlow

QuoteBy the time they do decide to, that horse will have long since bolted and foaled


It's reached it's peak or will over the next few days. So no horse to bolt.
They get momentum, they go mad, here they go

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 09:07:03 AM
QuoteBy the time they do decide to, that horse will have long since bolted and foaled


It's reached it's peak or will over the next few days. So no horse to bolt.

I hope your right.
i usse an speelchekor

highorlow

QuoteI hope your right.


80% of the cases are mild.


They get momentum, they go mad, here they go

GetOverTheBar

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 27, 2020, 09:16:12 AM
Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 09:07:03 AM
QuoteBy the time they do decide to, that horse will have long since bolted and foaled


It's reached it's peak or will over the next few days. So no horse to bolt.

I hope your right.

This is a warning though. All these govts need to think about a worse outbreak that probably will happen in future. For all intents and purposes this one is the Flu...a mutated version albeit.

Cavan19

Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 09:07:03 AM
QuoteBy the time they do decide to, that horse will have long since bolted and foaled


It's reached it's peak or will over the next few days. So no horse to bolt.

I would like to believe that is the case and would hope it is.

However are all signs not showing that this is spreading ?

highorlow

QuoteI would like to believe that is the case and would hope it is.

However are all signs not showing that this is spreading ?

UK = 13 cases , 0 deaths, 8 recovered
They get momentum, they go mad, here they go

Cavan19

Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 11:19:19 AM
QuoteI would like to believe that is the case and would hope it is.

However are all signs not showing that this is spreading ?

UK = 13 cases , 0 deaths, 8 recovered

It's is very early days though it hasn't really spread yet in Ireland and UK which i predict it will in the next few days.

Keyser soze

Must be some lads on here qualified as virologists or working for CDC given the certainty with which they pronounce the outcome of the spread of a new virus. 

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: highorlow on February 27, 2020, 11:19:19 AM
QuoteI would like to believe that is the case and would hope it is.

However are all signs not showing that this is spreading ?

UK = 13 cases , 0 deaths, 8 recovered

Italy = 12 dead, 3 recovered.
i usse an speelchekor