China Coronavirus

Started by lurganblue, January 23, 2020, 09:52:32 AM

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Aaron Boone

Given what we know at this stage and what might happen, the only logical next step is to panic.

Solo_run

#106
Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2020, 05:10:17 PM
Quote from: gallsman on February 25, 2020, 04:41:32 PM
2% of the affected population die, not 2% of the entire population.

So, given that nobody has had it before and there is no vaccine, what proportion of people will get it?

Nobody knows what proportion will get it. People can have the virus and be completely fine for 14 days before showing symptoms. In that time they may have infected others in that time and it just cascades down. I think it would be extremely difficult to contain especially when you consider how slow China's response was to it...someone estimated that 5 million people would have visited and left the Hubei province between the first reported case and the lockdown. There are probably 10,000's of cases that are not being reported - Look at the super spreader from the UK - he thought it was just a cold and got on with his life.

Coronavirus supposedly started at the end of December but another study suggested it started on 1st December 2019. China's response to the virus has been poor and taking into consideration numerous factors such as how densely populated China is, poor hygiene practices both there and abroad I wouldn't be surprised if this virus is already worldwide but just isn't as dangerous as the media would have us believe.

I would suggest the best protection against the virus would be to wash hands with soap, cough/sneeze into your arm rather than through the air and when opening closing doors etc use your sleeve/arm. Try not to pick your nose, eat food, rub your eyes before washing your hands.


WT4E

Quote from: Solo_run on February 25, 2020, 05:22:57 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2020, 05:10:17 PM
Quote from: gallsman on February 25, 2020, 04:41:32 PM
2% of the affected population die, not 2% of the entire population.

So, given that nobody has had it before and there is no vaccine, what proportion of people will get it?

Nobody knows what proportion will get it. People can have the virus and be completely fine for 14 days before showing symptoms. In that time they may have infected others in that time and it just cascades down. I think it would be extremely difficult to contain especially when you consider how slow China's response was to it...someone estimated that 5 million people would have visited and left the Hubei province between the first reported case and the lockdown. There are probably 10,000's of cases that are not being reported - Look at the super spreader from the UK - he thought it was just a cold and got on with his life.

Coronavirus supposedly started at the end of December but another study suggested it started on 1st December 2019. China's response to the virus has been poor and taking into consideration numerous factors such as how densely populated China is, poor hygiene practices both there and abroad I wouldn't be surprised if this virus is already worldwide but just isn't as dangerous as the media would have us believe.

I would suggest the best protection against the virus would be to wash hands with soap, cough/sneeze into your arm rather than through the air and when opening closing doors etc use your sleeve/arm. Try not to pick your nose, eat food, rub your eyes before washing your hands.

WTF???

RadioGAAGAA

i usse an speelchekor

armaghniac

Quote from: Aaron Boone on February 25, 2020, 05:18:37 PM
Given what we know at this stage and what might happen, the only logical next step is to panic.

Buy a big freezer and get Sky, Netflix and Prime subscriptions and big drum of Dettol, and wait it out.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

RadioGAAGAA

Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2020, 06:13:30 PM
Quote from: Aaron Boone on February 25, 2020, 05:18:37 PM
Given what we know at this stage and what might happen, the only logical next step is to panic.

Buy a big freezer and get Sky, Netflix and Prime subscriptions and big drum of Dettol, and wait it out.

Away of that with yer bubblebath dettol.

Jeyes fluid is what yer lookin.

i usse an speelchekor

playwiththewind1st

Quote from: RadioGAAGAA on February 25, 2020, 06:17:44 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 25, 2020, 06:13:30 PM
Quote from: Aaron Boone on February 25, 2020, 05:18:37 PM
Given what we know at this stage and what might happen, the only logical next step is to panic.

Buy a big freezer and get Sky, Netflix and Prime subscriptions and big drum of Dettol, and wait it out.

Away of that with yer bubblebath dettol.

Jeyes fluid is what yer lookin.

Either goes down well with Fever Tree.

armaghniac

Well they are going to stop the rugby anyway.
Paddy's day looks a bit dodgy.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

screenexile

Sounds like a possible outbreak in Bray!

After what's going on in Italy there's no way the rugby is going ahead unless it's later behind closed doors or something... interesting point from IRFU though are Ireland not accepting flights from Italy now??

Rois

Not wishing to be a scaremonger...but I'm in a WhatsApp group with a number of senior UK people in my firm, and one partner said today that he had lunch with a "very senior medical bod" who said the UK authorities are planning for potentially dealing with 60% infection rate, 100k deaths in the UK, and a peak outside of China in May. It is obviously worst case, but still worrying.

Milltown Row2

Hopefully it's finished by July! Holiday booked and paid ffs!
None of us are getting out of here alive, so please stop treating yourself like an after thought. Ea

armaghniac

#116
Quote from: Rois on February 25, 2020, 10:00:34 PM
Not wishing to be a scaremonger...but I'm in a WhatsApp group with a number of senior UK people in my firm, and one partner said today that he had lunch with a "very senior medical bod" who said the UK authorities are planning for potentially dealing with 60% infection rate, 100k deaths in the UK, and a peak outside of China in May. It is obviously worst case, but still worrying.

Probably 60% of the world will get it, but some of these measures are delaying things, so perhaps no peak in May. There is an advantage in delay, over the summer it may not get going in the northern hemisphere and if people get it over several months there is some chance of hospitals being able to cope. There are new tests being devised all the time and probably some better understanding of treatments. In a year or so they'll have a vaccine.

Quote from: Milltown Row2 on February 25, 2020, 10:09:36 PM
Hopefully it's finished by July! Holiday booked and paid ffs!

Probably July will be the peak, the twelfth will be cancelled. I'm supposed to be in Asia then  :(
I would make sure that you have travel insurance.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B

gallsman

Case in Barcelona today. I fly home Thursday for the weekend. I'd about Dublin airport then and Monday morning if I were you.

Ambrose

Quote from: gallsman on February 25, 2020, 11:20:54 PM
Case in Barcelona today. I fly home Thursday for the weekend. I'd about Dublin airport then and Monday morning if I were you.

Wife was supposed to be attending a conference in Barcelona next week, but the company have cancelled all foreign travel. They are putting in place contingency plans so everyone can work from home.

I normally wouldn't take much notice of these things, but we are going to make sure we have enough food and basic essentials to last for at least two weeks.
You can't live off history and tradition forever

armaghniac

Quote from: gallsman on February 25, 2020, 11:20:54 PM
Case in Barcelona today. I fly home Thursday for the weekend. I'd about Dublin airport then and Monday morning if I were you.

even by Gaaboard standards this is unusually incomprehensible advice.
If at first you don't succeed, then goto Plan B