Brexit.

[seafoid]

I look forward to the day when someone comes along who is able to analyse Brexit with complete objectivity.

As a subject it seems to attract people who wilfully hunt down and then promote only those pockets of information (whether based on fact or not, as long as someone has said it somewhere) that back up their original stance.

It actually become sort of religious.

Which can't end well.

Best post ever on the subject, this bold bit is seafoid in a nutshell.

Show me an economic case for Brexit a mhaicín

I don't have to. Here's the thing. It could be 20 years before the effect of Brexit is measurable.... yet no matter what those figures suggest it will still be impossible to assess whether it was the right decision, the wrong decision, or entirely neutral.

For until someone invents a time machine, it's impossible to know how things would have operated in an alternate reality with a different decision. In that alternate reality, for example, it might have taken 5 more years for the Italians to trigger their Brexit and sow the seeds for the EU's disintegration. Or perhaps the increasing right wing presence of governments in Europe might have forced the UK into a hasty retreat. Nobody will ever know.

Which ultimately, due to the inability of human beings to run accurate simulations of the butterfly effect, is why economists are, to a man (and woman) almost always and completely wrong in their economic predictions. It's effectively guesswork to devise a macroeconomic strategy from the events of the past, as there are just too many variables, and not enough constants.

It won't take 20 years. That is why sterling collapsed.
The UK has a budget deficit of 6% of gdp and a huge trade deficit. It cannot pay its way. Spending growth is driven by debt. Something will have to give. And Brexit cuts it off from its main trading partner.

[bennydorano]

Article in today's UK Times has deficit (estimated) at 3.5% of GDP for this Financial year, that is down from 10% post financial crisis. (I don't have a link, have the newspaper).

[seafoid]

That well known lefty Martin Wolf thinks trade could be down by 25%. Which will do wonders for the economy.

[No wides]

Note the word thinks. Google it if you don't know the meaning, you are good at the googling.

[armaghniac]

Article in today's UK Times has deficit (estimated) at 3.5% of GDP for this Financial year, that is down from 10% post financial crisis. (I don't have a link, have the newspaper).

The 3.5% is an improvement, but the point is that the UK is now the "fastest growing economy in the G7", so this is as good as it gets and there is a still a significant deficit. So the deficit cannot be cut, Irish style, by growing faster, but only by cutting expenditure and increasing taxes. An article in yesterdays FT from the Institute of Fiscal Studies suggested further tax increases and that "Spending per person on the day-to-day running of public services will be nearly 13 per cent lower by the end of this parliament than it was before the financial crisis". This is regardless of any slowdown caused by Brexit, and there will at least be a temporary slowdown while changing gear because of Brexit whatever about the long term effects proposed by Wobbler. 

Note the word thinks. Google it if you don't know the meaning, you are good at the googling.

On balance, I would accept his analysis before yours.

[No wides]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

[Rossfan]

That seems to be your tactic right enough.

[OgraAnDun]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

The irony.

[seafoid]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

Give an argument in support of Brexit. Tell us why the currency markets are shite  . At your leisure. 

[Milltown Row2]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

Give an argument in support of Brexit. Tell us why the currency markets are shite  . At your leisure.

There is none.... so why post sooooo many posts on something that you had no vote on, have no personal economic loss with, as the South is still in the Euro and things are dandy with yourselves!!

You been to Newtownards yet??

[No wides]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

The irony.

Google it. I have advocated nothing but the reality that brexit is happening.

[No wides]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

Give an argument in support of Brexit. Tell us why the currency markets are shite  . At your leisure.

There is none.... so why post sooooo many posts on something that you had no vote on, have no personal economic loss with, as the South is still in the Euro and things are dandy with yourselves!!

You been to Newtownards yet??

Another post i agree with!!

[armaghniac]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

Give an argument in support of Brexit. Tell us why the currency markets are shite  . At your leisure.

There is none.... so why post sooooo many posts on something that you had no vote on, have no personal economic loss with, as the South is still in the Euro and things are dandy with yourselves!!

You been to Newtownards yet??

This is going to damage many parts of Ireland, it better than sneering and saying that I'm alright Jack in Newtownards and f**k the rest of you.

[Milltown Row2]

That's the way of the modern world talk enough shite with enough confidence and most fools believe you.

Give an argument in support of Brexit. Tell us why the currency markets are shite  . At your leisure.

There is none.... so why post sooooo many posts on something that you had no vote on, have no personal economic loss with, as the South is still in the Euro and things are dandy with yourselves!!

You been to Newtownards yet??

This is going to damage many parts of Ireland, it better than sneering and saying that I'm alright Jack in Newtownards and f**k the rest of you.

Apparently not according to seafoid, with the demise of the uk trade that will surely mean a rise in the trade and export of Ireland?

Who's sneering? Seafoid quoted the affluent Newtownards earlier... he obviously has never set foot in it or know anything about it... but hey he's the man who knows everything

[armaghniac]

Apparently not according to seafoid, with the demise of the uk trade that will surely mean a rise in the trade and export of Ireland?

A lot of Ireland's trade goes to the UK!!

Who's sneering? Seafoid quoted the affluent Newtownards earlier... he obviously has never set foot in it or know anything about it... but hey he's the man who knows everything

Don't worry, I will not be saying anything good about Newtownards.