Brexit.

[bennydorano]

David Davis & Liam Fox are out of their depth, being arch Brexiteers who weren't c***ts to May seems to be their main qualification for being there. Wouldn't be surprised to see Gove parachuted in at some point when it gets even more shambolic, hateful hoorbag and all that he is, he's a very able politician and exactly the type of person required to make Brexit a 'success'.

It's going to be like watching a car crash this thing unfolding. May is going to get nailed by trying to dodge Parliament, a General Election is very possible as 'mandates' are increasingly being bandied about, Parliament will never pass a Brexit bill. The SNP aren't going to take anything lying down either. Constitutional chaos awaits - amongst the rest of the mess.

[armaghniac]

I would say it will be almost impossible for Britain to maintain 100% of its current trade with the EU post-Brexit. For example, Britain will find itself at an instant disadvantage in businesses that compete with EU based businesses. The EU will understandably want to protect its own. Also, any new trade tariffs at all will make Britain less competitive, versus EU traders and this will hit their trade with the EU and make them less profitable. As we have already seen, those on very tight margins are likely to struggle.

Oil is priced in dollars, at least for Britain it is. So oil prices will soon rise for UK businesses, while for EU competitors, relatively speaking, it won't. This will hurt British transport companies unless they can buy most of their oil abroad (but then they might be hit with new tariffs post-Brexit).

Any reduction in trade will have an economic effect quickly. If the reduction is in any way significant it could mean recession for Britain. If the reduction is very significant, well...........use your own words.

A devaluation reduces living standards, but the idea is that exporters can boost exports and employ more etc. Leaving aside that UK exports have not responded well to devaluation in the recent past, in the present confused situation if you were an exporter would you invest to produce more or if you were dealing with a UK provider would you sign a long term contract for the supply of more goods?

[seafoid]

I would say it will be almost impossible for Britain to maintain 100% of its current trade with the EU post-Brexit. For example, Britain will find itself at an instant disadvantage in businesses that compete with EU based businesses. The EU will understandably want to protect its own. Also, any new trade tariffs at all will make Britain less competitive, versus EU traders and this will hit their trade with the EU and make them less profitable. As we have already seen, those on very tight margins are likely to struggle.

Oil is priced in dollars, at least for Britain it is. So oil prices will soon rise for UK businesses, while for EU competitors, relatively speaking, it won't. This will hurt British transport companies unless they can buy most of their oil abroad (but then they might be hit with new tariffs post-Brexit).

Any reduction in trade will have an economic effect quickly. If the reduction is in any way significant it could mean recession for Britain. If the reduction is very significant, well...........use your own words.

A devaluation reduces living standards, but the idea is that exporters can boost exports and employ more etc. Leaving aside that UK exports have not responded well to devaluation in the recent past, in the present confused situation if you were an exporter would you invest to produce more or if you were dealing with a UK provider would you sign a long term contract for the supply of more goods?

Ceteris is not paribus with the 6% of GDP deficit the UK has.
the devaluation will probably just import inflation and reduce living standards

[bennydorano]

Interesting opinion piece from Kevin Myers in Sunday Times today. Can't link it. 'Weight of immigration to sink good ship eu'.

[seafoid]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

[muppet]

I would say it will be almost impossible for Britain to maintain 100% of its current trade with the EU post-Brexit. For example, Britain will find itself at an instant disadvantage in businesses that compete with EU based businesses. The EU will understandably want to protect its own. Also, any new trade tariffs at all will make Britain less competitive, versus EU traders and this will hit their trade with the EU and make them less profitable. As we have already seen, those on very tight margins are likely to struggle.

Oil is priced in dollars, at least for Britain it is. So oil prices will soon rise for UK businesses, while for EU competitors, relatively speaking, it won't. This will hurt British transport companies unless they can buy most of their oil abroad (but then they might be hit with new tariffs post-Brexit).

Any reduction in trade will have an economic effect quickly. If the reduction is in any way significant it could mean recession for Britain. If the reduction is very significant, well...........use your own words.

A devaluation reduces living standards, but the idea is that exporters can boost exports and employ more etc. Leaving aside that UK exports have not responded well to devaluation in the recent past, in the present confused situation if you were an exporter would you invest to produce more or if you were dealing with a UK provider would you sign a long term contract for the supply of more goods?

That is what normally happens, but if tariffs are added to British exports and not those of their competitors devaluation isn't that much help. Also if exporters have to source anything from abroad, they face both currency problems and tariffs so their costs go up.

[seafoid]

The Tories should hand over the UK to Supernanny for 3 months

[Milltown Row2]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

Jesus man!! Give it up, standard of living has never been as good!! Give me a period of time where it's been better?

[armaghniac]

The standard if living might still be less than it would otherwise have been,  even if it remains better than in the past.

However, the real threat to NI is political destabilisation,  which will ado reduce the economy.

[seafoid]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

Jesus man!! Give it up, standard of living has never been as good!! Give me a period of time where it's been better?

Last month

[Milltown Row2]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

Jesus man!! Give it up, standard of living has never been as good!! Give me a period of time where it's been better?

Last month

Period of time (for me anyways) would be a decade or a generation, not a month and fuel is still cheaper than the 1.40 odds it was last time, milk same price as is bread!! Chicken still cost 4 quid! And bottle of wine is still a fiver!!

[seafoid]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

Jesus man!! Give it up, standard of living has never been as good!! Give me a period of time where it's been better?

Last month

Period of time (for me anyways) would be a decade or a generation, not a month and fuel is still cheaper than the 1.40 odds it was last time, milk same price as is bread!! Chicken still cost 4 quid! And bottle of wine is still a fiver!!

It takes time for currency falls to make their way onto retail.prices. By the time the Ulster championship kicks oFF next may things should be clearer.
There will be fewer Brits and occupied people going on foreign holidays.

[Milltown Row2]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

Jesus man!! Give it up, standard of living has never been as good!! Give me a period of time where it's been better?

Last month

Period of time (for me anyways) would be a decade or a generation, not a month and fuel is still cheaper than the 1.40 odds it was last time, milk same price as is bread!! Chicken still cost 4 quid! And bottle of wine is still a fiver!!

It takes time for currency falls to make their way onto retail.prices. By the time the Ulster championship kicks oFF next may things should be clearer.
There will be fewer Brits and occupied people going on foreign holidays.

Right, will we have less southerners coming over the border for shopping?

[bennydorano]

That's assuming Sterling maintains it's current level. Sterling could recover it's recent losses before Christmas. Who knows what is round the corner in the Eurozone.

[Franko]

Brexit means a lower standard of living . Another nail in the coffin of NI.

Jesus man!! Give it up, standard of living has never been as good!! Give me a period of time where it's been better?

Last month

Period of time (for me anyways) would be a decade or a generation, not a month and fuel is still cheaper than the 1.40 odds it was last time, milk same price as is bread!! Chicken still cost 4 quid! And bottle of wine is still a fiver!!

It takes time for currency falls to make their way onto retail.prices. By the time the Ulster championship kicks oFF next may things should be clearer.
There will be fewer Brits and occupied people going on foreign holidays.

Right, will we have less southerners coming over the border for shopping?

Why do you keep spouting this shite as if you're making some sort of point?  It's irrelevant.