Test appetite for Irish Unity in Census 2021

[JPGJOHNNYG]

Great idea. Wonder is it allowed.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/06/27/news/test-appetite-for-irish-unity-in-census-says-sinn-fe-in-1366961/

Not a good way to test opinion. They should look to see why nearly every opinion poll (done via phone) did not forecast a Trump presidency. People found phone opinion polls too self-identifying and it does not capture the shy vote. The census would have been less chance of catching  the shy vote given that it reveals answers down to the household level. So severely stupid idea.

The recent BBC poll is much more accurate for these reasons and shows the vote for unity is very close. However, knowing Sinn Fein, they will make it jingoistic and scupper the chances. Likewise the DUP campaigning for the Union can only hurt their prospects, too.  Both parties would be wise to keep a low profile in such a vote.

The problem is 3 recent polls have it as a toss of a coin with one actually having unity with a slim lead and yet on Spotlight last week Noel Thompson was only quoting one ridiculously flawed poll with 21% support for Unity. Peter Weir then lied and said no poll had ever shown anything other than a resounding support for the Union. The whole time Niall O Donnghaile said nothing like an idiot and didn't challenge either of them. The polls also are given a massive swerve by the media. Nationalists should be screaming the results at every opportunity to build momentum.

[armaghniac]

This is unwise and typically irresponsible from SF. The census is not an opinion poll on a political question.
I think the proportions of people describing themselves as Irish in the census might be useful data for a border poll campaign.
However SF have no plan for a UI, if they did their recent Ard Fheis would have proposed economies in expenditure that might leave some  funds for the project, but instead they demanded more spending on everything.

[weareros]

Great idea. Wonder is it allowed.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/06/27/news/test-appetite-for-irish-unity-in-census-says-sinn-fe-in-1366961/

Not a good way to test opinion. They should look to see why nearly every opinion poll (done via phone) did not forecast a Trump presidency. People found phone opinion polls too self-identifying and it does not capture the shy vote. The census would have been less chance of catching  the shy vote given that it reveals answers down to the household level. So severely stupid idea.

The recent BBC poll is much more accurate for these reasons and shows the vote for unity is very close. However, knowing Sinn Fein, they will make it jingoistic and scupper the chances. Likewise the DUP campaigning for the Union can only hurt their prospects, too.  Both parties would be wise to keep a low profile in such a vote.

The problem is 3 recent polls have it as a toss of a coin with one actually having unity with a slim lead and yet on Spotlight last week Noel Thompson was only quoting one ridiculously flawed poll with 21% support for Unity. Peter Weir then lied and said no poll had ever shown anything other than a resounding support for the Union. The whole time Niall O Donnghaile said nothing like an idiot and didn't challenge either of them. The polls also are given a massive swerve by the media. Nationalists should be screaming the results at every opportunity to build momentum.

Agreed. Even the headline for the BBC poll (which was almost 50/50) was "Fewer NI People Feel British than other UK Regions." Talk about burying the lede. If there's anything resembling a hard brexit, a unity vote could pass. I would be very disappointed if Irish govt did not secure a border poll in such circumstances.

[LCohen]

Great idea. Wonder is it allowed.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/06/27/news/test-appetite-for-irish-unity-in-census-says-sinn-fe-in-1366961/

Not a good way to test opinion. They should look to see why nearly every opinion poll (done via phone) did not forecast a Trump presidency. People found phone opinion polls too self-identifying and it does not capture the shy vote. The census would have been less chance of catching  the shy vote given that it reveals answers down to the household level. So severely stupid idea.

The recent BBC poll is much more accurate for these reasons and shows the vote for unity is very close. However, knowing Sinn Fein, they will make it jingoistic and scupper the chances. Likewise the DUP campaigning for the Union can only hurt their prospects, too.  Both parties would be wise to keep a low profile in such a vote.

The problem is 3 recent polls have it as a toss of a coin with one actually having unity with a slim lead and yet on Spotlight last week Noel Thompson was only quoting one ridiculously flawed poll with 21% support for Unity. Peter Weir then lied and said no poll had ever shown anything other than a resounding support for the Union. The whole time Niall O Donnghaile said nothing like an idiot and didn't challenge either of them. The polls also are given a massive swerve by the media. Nationalists should be screaming the results at every opportunity to build momentum.

Agreed. Even the headline for the BBC poll (which was almost 50/50) was "Fewer NI People Feel British than other UK Regions." Talk about burying the lede. If there's anything resembling a hard brexit, a unity vote could pass. I would be very disappointed if Irish govt did not secure a border poll in such circumstances.

Well at least you are giving yourself plenty of time. For the disappointment that is

Not a mission of their being a vote for UI in an RoI referendum. And the chances of there being a referendum only slightly less remote

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

[armaghniac]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

[omaghjoe]

Great idea. Wonder is it allowed.

https://www.irishnews.com/news/2018/06/27/news/test-appetite-for-irish-unity-in-census-says-sinn-fe-in-1366961/

Not a good way to test opinion. They should look to see why nearly every opinion poll (done via phone) did not forecast a Trump presidency. People found phone opinion polls too self-identifying and it does not capture the shy vote. The census would have been less chance of catching  the shy vote given that it reveals answers down to the household level. So severely stupid idea.

The recent BBC poll is much more accurate for these reasons and shows the vote for unity is very close. However, knowing Sinn Fein, they will make it jingoistic and scupper the chances. Likewise the DUP campaigning for the Union can only hurt their prospects, too.  Both parties would be wise to keep a low profile in such a vote.

The problem is 3 recent polls have it as a toss of a coin with one actually having unity with a slim lead and yet on Spotlight last week Noel Thompson was only quoting one ridiculously flawed poll with 21% support for Unity. Peter Weir then lied and said no poll had ever shown anything other than a resounding support for the Union. The whole time Niall O Donnghaile said nothing like an idiot and didn't challenge either of them. The polls also are given a massive swerve by the media. Nationalists should be screaming the results at every opportunity to build momentum.

Agreed. Even the headline for the BBC poll (which was almost 50/50) was "Fewer NI People Feel British than other UK Regions." Talk about burying the lede. If there's anything resembling a hard brexit, a unity vote could pass. I would be very disappointed if Irish govt did not secure a border poll in such circumstances.

Well at least you are giving yourself plenty of time. For the disappointment that is

Not a mission of their being a vote for UI in an RoI referendum. And the chances of there being a referendum only slightly less remote

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

This seems to be Unionists are pinning their hopes on these days

[seafoid]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy.  The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

[Stan Laurel]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy.  The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

[Hardy]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy.  The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

[Stan Laurel]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

[bennydorano]

You're very clued in for someone with 38 posts🤔🤔

[Stan Laurel]

You're very clued in for someone with 38 posts🤔🤔

You do realise you don't have to post on this board to be able to read it?

[Rossfan]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

[Stan Laurel]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt

Good man you can google too - did you not read what he posted?

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy.  The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

[Hardy]

Brexit is a mess. But as a driver of UI it's a red herring

Not so, the undermining of the whole 1998 settlement and the NI economy is very definitely influential.

I agree. The UK is close to bankruptcy. The deficit is the difference between govt income and spending.  It is €1.7 Trillion pounds now. A no deal Brexit could be the end.
Unionists are in a very difficult situation.

Do you just pull figures out of the sky?

What is the true figure?

Between spending and revenue it is certainly not 1.7 Trillion but seafood loves the fake news, any post for him is a good post to rack up his posting count, nearly all of his posts are bullshit, cut and pasted from some web site or other.

You're right. Seafoid had approximately the right number, but the wrong label.

The deficit (i.e. spending vs. income, as represented by borrowing) for the 12 months to March was £42.6 Billion.

The national debt is £1.79 Trillion.