Brexit.

[seafoid]

Very interesting comment from the Financial Times website

xmp125a 4 hours ago

The main problem of brexit is that it will fire the last remaining bullet, before the anger of the working class starts to turn inwards. Whatever happens after brexit, it will not solve most of the problems that convinced the white labour voters to support brexit (let's be honest - UKIP and Conservatives could not do it alone - it was the ex-labur working class voter class who pushed the brexit vote over the 50% margin).-The NHS will still be f'd up (and forget about those 350m GBP a week)-The EU rules will still apply for goods exported to EU, single market or not. So Brussels' bureaucracy will still determine the curvature of cucumbers that UK will try to export into EU.-Brexit will have NO effect whatsoever on Muslim immigration (whadya think, pakistan is the part of EU??!?)-Zero-hour contracts are here to stay (they are exclusively UK's invention, nothing to do with EU) etc.However, the EU boogeyman will be gone. And all political excuses with it. So the next time the angry voters determine that they want changes, all their anger will be projected inwards. And God help UK politicians then.

[armaghniac]

Very interesting comment from the Financial Times website

xmp125a 4 hours ago

The main problem of brexit is that it will fire the last remaining bullet, before the anger of the working class starts to turn inwards. Whatever happens after brexit, it will not solve most of the problems that convinced the white labour voters to support brexit (let's be honest - UKIP and Conservatives could not do it alone - it was the ex-labur working class voter class who pushed the brexit vote over the 50% margin).-The NHS will still be f'd up (and forget about those 350m GBP a week)-The EU rules will still apply for goods exported to EU, single market or not. So Brussels' bureaucracy will still determine the curvature of cucumbers that UK will try to export into EU.-Brexit will have NO effect whatsoever on Muslim immigration (whadya think, pakistan is the part of EU??!?)-Zero-hour contracts are here to stay (they are exclusively UK's invention, nothing to do with EU) etc.However, the EU boogeyman will be gone. And all political excuses with it. So the next time the angry voters determine that they want changes, all their anger will be projected inwards. And God help UK politicians then.

Presumably, they hope that the next election will have "stopped immigration", and the long term effects will not be obvious, so they will get away with it.

[bennydorano]

Sterling currently up 1.5% on the € since May's announcement:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

Markets want clarity as much as anything else by the looks of it.

The speech is just an ever deep intrusion into the unknown jungle

The jump in stg was down to her saying that she would put any deal to a vote in parliment

Doubt it, that information has been in the public domain for a month or two.


Edit: I went back and checked, October that info was available.

Quite possibly influenced by

Commons vote to ratify Brexit very likely, says No 10 - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37691270

Any package without some form of Single Market access won't get passed in Parliament.

[seafoid]

Very interesting comment from the Financial Times website

xmp125a 4 hours ago

The main problem of brexit is that it will fire the last remaining bullet, before the anger of the working class starts to turn inwards. Whatever happens after brexit, it will not solve most of the problems that convinced the white labour voters to support brexit (let's be honest - UKIP and Conservatives could not do it alone - it was the ex-labur working class voter class who pushed the brexit vote over the 50% margin).-The NHS will still be f'd up (and forget about those 350m GBP a week)-The EU rules will still apply for goods exported to EU, single market or not. So Brussels' bureaucracy will still determine the curvature of cucumbers that UK will try to export into EU.-Brexit will have NO effect whatsoever on Muslim immigration (whadya think, pakistan is the part of EU??!?)-Zero-hour contracts are here to stay (they are exclusively UK's invention, nothing to do with EU) etc.However, the EU boogeyman will be gone. And all political excuses with it. So the next time the angry voters determine that they want changes, all their anger will be projected inwards. And God help UK politicians then.

Presumably, they hope that the next election will have "stopped immigration", and the long term effects will not be obvious, so they will get away with it.

There still won't be any payrises in places like Cornwall and Lincolnshire. Immigration was the only source of economic growth for the UK over the last 5 years seeing as there were no payrises above inflation.
The Tories have dumped the golden European goose for the sake of short term expediency. The structural problems in the UK economy have very little to do with Europe.

[Declan]

Thought this was a good piece

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/01/full-english-brexit-menu/

[Applesisapples]

Glory be. Brexiteers believe in Santa and the tooth fairy. White England voted to keep out the Poles, meant time the Indians and Pakistani's that make up the majority of immigrants will continue to pour in, and they won't do the shitty jobs the Poles and other East Europeans do. They will turn to commerce and compete with the Middle-class for the punters pound. I had to laugh at the ethnic asians interviewed about Brexit saying they wanted to control the borders, like the Irish their granny was glad to be an immigrant at one time. As for the US, Trump will do a deal but on his terms, he is a protectionist so he won't be rolling over and doing an open deal, the Chinese are worth watching, they will buy UK companies to get at the technology and before you know it the same stuff will be coming out of China for 1/4 the cost. But this is lost on the great unwashed. Heard a Newry farmer who was pro brexit on GMU and the realism is starting to hit a third of the north's milk goes south.

[Declan]

Enjoyed this

Brexit Wounds
I might be in the minority here, but I'm not sure this Brexit thing is going to be all that bad for Ireland. You only have to listen to "The New Iron Lady", Theresa May's speech to hear the opportunities for us.

Even casual observers can see a border wall (just on the edge of the horizon) as a boon for struggling developers. If Irish planning efficiency has taught us anything, it's that we can get at least fifteen construction tenders, twenty obscenely expensive architectural designs and a decade or more out of the planning process?

We could have petrol stations running kids colouring competitions; draw your own border checkpoint. The winning entry could be brought to life by Dermot Bannon, in a cacophony of crayon and concrete; the entire block tastefully rimmed with barbed wire. I'm sure some minor celebrity could cut the ribbon in exchange for dual citizenship?

Theresa May has laid out her plan, which is a plan to look at all available plans. She wants to explore all the options available while probably availing of none. Well slap me in the face with a retired judge, this is a job for Ireland Inc.

Sure isn't Ireland Inc. the best country in the world for making world class plans, to be world class in something or other, by some far off future date? We have panels of experts, who's entire expertise is in delivering plans on the best way to hold a press conference, where plans are unveiled to deliver new plans by 2020.  Fail to plan, plan to fail, plain for your plans to fail, blame Brexit. Come on Ireland, we can do this!

There's so much more positives to this Hard Brexit outcome. I mean, due to machinations of Banking, a financial passport is required to carry out complex financial schemes, such as Rate Fixing or Insider Trading. Luckily our Central Bank are very experienced in looking the other way while consumers are gouged. Aren't we still paying twice the European average in our Mortgage Rates? I hardly think the Big British Banks need fear any constraints on rampant profiteering from Ireland Inc. IDA Ireland could use the tagline (once I get my royalty fee):

Ireland: Come for the Hard Brexit. Stay for the Soft Regulation

Besides, even if the banks and financial arms of the Multinational Companies don't want to move here physically, we have brave volunteers across the country willing to allow them set up shop for little more than the price of a Brass Plate. Sure isn't there a house in Glasnevin, Dublin 9 that has 124 "companies" operating from it. 124 companies in a small 3 bed house. We are screaming blue murder about a housing crisis, yet one small suburban house accommodates 124 companies. Airbnb must be dying to get a look inside those doors.

Yes folks, Hard Brexit is going to be okey-dokey. With a little bit of creative thinking, we won't have to do any more thinking. With a little bit of forward planning, we won't have to make any more plans. Because this is Ireland Inc. An open economy, and if Britain is getting into the business of becoming a closed economy, then Ireland Inc. is open to that as well.



Tony Groves January 2017

[seafoid]

A trade deal with the US would involve GM shite and hormone treated beef

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0K46C82v9o

[LeoMc]

Glory be. Brexiteers believe in Santa and the tooth fairy. White England voted to keep out the Poles, meant time the Indians and Pakistani's that make up the majority of immigrants will continue to pour in, and they won't do the shitty jobs the Poles and other East Europeans do. They will turn to commerce and compete with the Middle-class for the punters pound. I had to laugh at the ethnic asians interviewed about Brexit saying they wanted to control the borders, like the Irish their granny was glad to be an immigrant at one time. As for the US, Trump will do a deal but on his terms, he is a protectionist so he won't be rolling over and doing an open deal, the Chinese are worth watching, they will buy UK companies to get at the technology and before you know it the same stuff will be coming out of China for 1/4 the cost. But this is lost on the great unwashed. Heard a Newry farmer who was pro brexit on GMU and the realism is starting to hit a third of the north's milk goes south.

Just wait until his labourers are forced back East and the NZ lamb and Brazilian beef comes north.

[armaghniac]

We could have petrol stations running kids colouring competitions; draw your own border checkpoint. The winning entry could be brought to life by Dermot Bannon, in a cacophony of crayon and concrete; the entire block tastefully rimmed with barbed wire. I'm sure some minor celebrity could cut the ribbon in exchange for dual citizenship?

Typical sneering "I'm alright Jack" attitude from someone in Dublin. If you live in Tyrone or Donegal it might not be so amusing.

[johnneycool]

We could have petrol stations running kids colouring competitions; draw your own border checkpoint. The winning entry could be brought to life by Dermot Bannon, in a cacophony of crayon and concrete; the entire block tastefully rimmed with barbed wire. I'm sure some minor celebrity could cut the ribbon in exchange for dual citizenship?

Typical sneering "I'm alright Jack" attitude from someone in Dublin. If you live in Tyrone or Donegal it might not be so amusing.

I think the Ireland he talks about is the 26 county variety, not the entire island.

I'm intrigued by May and her transparent border with the rest of Ireland and how that pans out. I think we'll end up with some sort of controls at the airports and ports rather than at Newry and so forth and that won't sit well with the Unionists.

[armaghniac]

We could have petrol stations running kids colouring competitions; draw your own border checkpoint. The winning entry could be brought to life by Dermot Bannon, in a cacophony of crayon and concrete; the entire block tastefully rimmed with barbed wire. I'm sure some minor celebrity could cut the ribbon in exchange for dual citizenship?

Typical sneering "I'm alright Jack" attitude from someone in Dublin. If you live in Tyrone or Donegal it might not be so amusing.

I think the Ireland he talks about is the 26 county variety, not the entire island.

Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth are in the 26 counties, last time I looked, and a lot of people there may suffer because of this nonsense.

I'm intrigued by May and her transparent border with the rest of Ireland and how that pans out. I think we'll end up with some sort of controls at the airports and ports rather than at Newry and so forth and that won't sit well with the Unionists.

This is the obvious solution simply require local citizens to have official ID and aliens to produce a passport.  Problem solved.

[NAG1]

I'm totally intrigued as too how people are seeing the Trump's promise of trade deal with the UK as anything other that hot air.

How is he going to square that with his protectionism policies which he got elected on, massive import taxes on foreign cars not built within the US. And serious implication for US companies outsourcing jobs.

So what does he have to offer the UK outside of this and what does the UK have to offer? To me it is not making sense on any level whatsoever it all a smokescreen to back the Brexiteers.

[Applesisapples]

I'm totally intrigued as too how people are seeing the Trump's promise of trade deal with the UK as anything other that hot air.

How is he going to square that with his protectionism policies which he got elected on, massive import taxes on foreign cars not built within the US. And serious implication for US companies outsourcing jobs.

So what does he have to offer the UK outside of this and what does the UK have to offer? To me it is not making sense on any level whatsoever it all a smokescreen to back the Brexiteers.

Exactly!

[seafoid]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/18/retired-britons-eu-return-campaigners-pensioners-spain-healthcare