6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[marty34]

If unionists were sensible (I know), then they could embrace the WA and make the north very workable in terms of businesses and improving things and push the re-united thing down the line a bit.

But, alas, they don't get it and it's all about the flag.

[LeoMc]

If unionists were sensible (I know), then they could embrace the WA and make the north very workable in terms of businesses and improving things and push the re-united thing down the line a bit.

But, alas, they don't get it and it's all about the flag.

If anyone ever gets round to spelling out what a UI would be like, an equivalent of the WA should be incorporated, giving the North access to GB markets and goods.

[seafoid]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

No they aren't. In fact they're doing the exact opposite.

Emotion will get you so far, but it won't get a 50%+1 majority in NI at the minute.

The demographics may indeed be swinging in the right direction but not enough so the middle 15% (based on the LE votes for Alliance and the Greens) will need hard facts and figures and SF won't be able to swing these voters, it'll be a combination of a Civic forum and Irish Gov proposals as to what that UI will look like.

There's a bit of work to do yet.

41.5% voted for Nationalist or Nationalist leaning parties ( I haven't counted the independents)
38.1% voted for Unionist parties, no independents included either)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/northern-ireland/results

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/25/sinn-feins-sudden-silence-on-irish-unity-is-a-deliberate-and-intelligent-strategy/

"Almost everyone still believes a vote on Irish unity would be lost. A win is certainly not "likely", the threshold set by the Good Friday Agreement. Although unionism's decline appears irreversible, nationalism is barely growing. Its 40 per cent total vote last week is about two points better than usual but there is no prospect of it exceeding 50 per cent. So Northern Ireland remains in stalemate and change can only be secured by wooing the centre ground."

So it is the same as Scotland. Change will be possible when the economic system collapses but not before. This is what happened in the South from 1916 on. Living standards kept on falling and people in the middle, the Irish Independent readers, suddenly didn't give a f**k any more. It was crystallised in the 1918 election.

[johnnycool]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

No they aren't. In fact they're doing the exact opposite.

Emotion will get you so far, but it won't get a 50%+1 majority in NI at the minute.

The demographics may indeed be swinging in the right direction but not enough so the middle 15% (based on the LE votes for Alliance and the Greens) will need hard facts and figures and SF won't be able to swing these voters, it'll be a combination of a Civic forum and Irish Gov proposals as to what that UI will look like.

There's a bit of work to do yet.

41.5% voted for Nationalist or Nationalist leaning parties ( I haven't counted the independents)
38.1% voted for Unionist parties, no independents included either)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/northern-ireland/results

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/25/sinn-feins-sudden-silence-on-irish-unity-is-a-deliberate-and-intelligent-strategy/

"Almost everyone still believes a vote on Irish unity would be lost. A win is certainly not "likely", the threshold set by the Good Friday Agreement. Although unionism's decline appears irreversible, nationalism is barely growing. Its 40 per cent total vote last week is about two points better than usual but there is no prospect of it exceeding 50 per cent. So Northern Ireland remains in stalemate and change can only be secured by wooing the centre ground."

So it is the same as Scotland. Change will be possible when the economic system collapses but not before. This is what happened in the South from 1916 on. Living standards kept on falling and people in the middle, the Irish Independent readers, suddenly didn't give a f**k any more. It was crystallised in the 1918 election.

Same point as Marty, a 6 county economic basket case as is the case now thanks to Brexit and the most right wing Tory Gov in a generation in London, the NHS, education, social care as well as the economy is in the gutter.

Northern doctors are moving south for the better pay and lifestyle and that tells you all that you need to know.

But "fleg" will be the call whilst you've no arse in your trousers.

[keep her low this half]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

No they aren't. In fact they're doing the exact opposite.

Emotion will get you so far, but it won't get a 50%+1 majority in NI at the minute.

The demographics may indeed be swinging in the right direction but not enough so the middle 15% (based on the LE votes for Alliance and the Greens) will need hard facts and figures and SF won't be able to swing these voters, it'll be a combination of a Civic forum and Irish Gov proposals as to what that UI will look like.

There's a bit of work to do yet.

41.5% voted for Nationalist or Nationalist leaning parties ( I haven't counted the independents)
38.1% voted for Unionist parties, no independents included either)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/northern-ireland/results

Someone on twitter had added up all the independents, puts nationalism on 44%. There were a lot of independent republicans standing in Tyrone and Fermanagh. Irish news had nationalism 27,000 votes ahead. Of the middle ground lots more of their transfers broke the way of nationalism rather than unionism. Remember if nationalism is on 44% and the middle ground on 15% it only takes 40% of middle ground to break nationalisms way to win the poll.

[seafoid]

SF are playing a blinder with the Border Poll. It's the same tactics that vote Leave used for Brexit. There is no definition, no costing, no comparison of advantages and disadvantages.
It's all about emotion and we want it now.

No they aren't. In fact they're doing the exact opposite.

Emotion will get you so far, but it won't get a 50%+1 majority in NI at the minute.

The demographics may indeed be swinging in the right direction but not enough so the middle 15% (based on the LE votes for Alliance and the Greens) will need hard facts and figures and SF won't be able to swing these voters, it'll be a combination of a Civic forum and Irish Gov proposals as to what that UI will look like.

There's a bit of work to do yet.

41.5% voted for Nationalist or Nationalist leaning parties ( I haven't counted the independents)
38.1% voted for Unionist parties, no independents included either)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/northern-ireland/results

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/05/25/sinn-feins-sudden-silence-on-irish-unity-is-a-deliberate-and-intelligent-strategy/

"Almost everyone still believes a vote on Irish unity would be lost. A win is certainly not "likely", the threshold set by the Good Friday Agreement. Although unionism's decline appears irreversible, nationalism is barely growing. Its 40 per cent total vote last week is about two points better than usual but there is no prospect of it exceeding 50 per cent. So Northern Ireland remains in stalemate and change can only be secured by wooing the centre ground."

So it is the same as Scotland. Change will be possible when the economic system collapses but not before. This is what happened in the South from 1916 on. Living standards kept on falling and people in the middle, the Irish Independent readers, suddenly didn't give a f**k any more. It was crystallised in the 1918 election.

Same point as Marty, a 6 county economic basket case as is the case now thanks to Brexit and the most right wing Tory Gov in a generation in London, the NHS, education, social care as well as the economy is in the gutter.

Northern doctors are moving south for the better pay and lifestyle and that tells you all that you need to know.

But "fleg" will be the call whilst you've no arse in your trousers.

Economics usually won't move people when it comes to sovereignty. If they did the South would have gone back to England in the 1930s. If something awful happens like pensions collapsing there may be  change of attitude but as long as people can maintain their regular habits most will not opt for change.
I think all parties like UK and Irl Gov and Northern parties have to fix the Northern economy because this would wean people off the DUP and also make it more attractive in terms of a UI.

[Feckitt]

The correct final results are,

SF 31.0%
SDLP 8.7%
PBP 1.1%
Aontú 0.9%
IRSP 0.1%
Independent Nationalists 2.1%

TOTAL PRO UNITED IRELAND VOTE 43.9%

DUP 23.2%
UUP 10.9%
TUV 3.9%
PUP 0.3%
Conservatives 0.1%
Independent Unionists 1.7%

TOTAL PRO UNITED KINGDOM VOTE 40.1%

Alliance 13.3%
Green 1.7%
Cross Community Labour 0.1%
Workers Party 0.1%
Socialist Party 0.0%
Independent Others 0.8%

TOTAL OTHERS 16.0%

[RedHand88]

Historic.

[rrhf]

I think I prefer the term reunified Ireland to United Ireland. In time it will remind us how we all lose when good people are divided up..

[Feckitt]

Even if the PRO Unity lead was only 0.1% it would have been historic, but a lead of 3.8% is so earth shattering that this truly signals time up for Northern Ireland.

[Milltown Row2]

When it happens, what differences will it have on you in all aspects?

Probably a thread on its own

But, mentally, financially, socially, and so on

[imtommygunn]

If it happened you might live longer as the NHS is capitulating.

[Milltown Row2]

If it happened you might live longer as the NHS is capitulating.

I'm beyond living longer, I work with old people, it ain't much craic

[seafoid]

Maybe Antrim might start winning all Irelands . It has the population.

[Milltown Row2]

Maybe Antrim might start winning all Irelands . It has the population.

My club has won one, I'll die happy enough