6 County Assembly Elections - 5th May 2022

[smelmoth]

Unionists like to talk about their biggest trading partner: GB.

Ireland (republic) now only has about 9% of its trade with GB. It’s not the 1950s anymore.

Here’s the kicker that never gets discussed. The republic is still a larger trading partner with GB (even if 90% of its trade is elsewhere) per head of population than the north is. UK exports to Ireland (republic) were £54.7bn in 2022 and imports were £29.1bn. The North on other hand exports £12.2bn to GB and imports £14.4b.

Consider North has 40% of population of South. But consider the South does all that trade with UK (and is UK’s 6th largest market) but 90% of South’s trade is still elsewhere.

There’s very little elsewhere for the North apart from GB and the rest of Ireland. Unionists in their blindness to be tethered to GB cannot even see that GB being the largest trading partner is actually a problem for economic growth. And they do not even have a surplus. The 1.9m from North buy more from GB than the 68m in GB buys from the wee country. South does not have a surplus either with UK  but has found new markets. One place North does have a surplus: with the South. And the protocol has increased that surplus.

On the big picture stuff I agree with you. NI has look more to economies beyond Uk.

On the specifics of your numbers I’m less sure. Accurate data of trade between UK regions is in my experience impossible to get. I’ll give you an example:
A German company spends €10m on a service from a UK company. The UK company is headquartered in London but all its work is done in Belfast. Does your figures record that as an export from London to Germany, Belfast to Germany or Belfast to London? Accurately recording that stuff is really important for the type of analysis you are attempting.

[smelmoth]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

There is a concerted effort now, calling for the scrapping of the good friday agreement or failing that a renogiation of the mechanism by which a border poll is called or a changing of the 50+1% rule for it to pass.

Spell out the details of each strand that go to make up the “concerted effort” to which you refer?

D....e....t.....a....i....l.....s...

Is that all we get?

[grounded]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

There is a concerted effort now, calling for the scrapping of the good friday agreement or failing that a renogiation of the mechanism by which a border poll is called or a changing of the 50+1% rule for it to pass.

Spell out the details of each strand that go to make up the “concerted effort” to which you refer?

D....e....t.....a....i....l.....s...

Is that all we get?

C...o...n....c...e...r...t...e...d...   E...f...f...o...r...t..

[weareros]

Unionists like to talk about their biggest trading partner: GB.

Ireland (republic) now only has about 9% of its trade with GB. It’s not the 1950s anymore.

Here’s the kicker that never gets discussed. The republic is still a larger trading partner with GB (even if 90% of its trade is elsewhere) per head of population than the north is. UK exports to Ireland (republic) were £54.7bn in 2022 and imports were £29.1bn. The North on other hand exports £12.2bn to GB and imports £14.4b.

Consider North has 40% of population of South. But consider the South does all that trade with UK (and is UK’s 6th largest market) but 90% of South’s trade is still elsewhere.

There’s very little elsewhere for the North apart from GB and the rest of Ireland. Unionists in their blindness to be tethered to GB cannot even see that GB being the largest trading partner is actually a problem for economic growth. And they do not even have a surplus. The 1.9m from North buy more from GB than the 68m in GB buys from the wee country. South does not have a surplus either with UK  but has found new markets. One place North does have a surplus: with the South. And the protocol has increased that surplus.

On the big picture stuff I agree with you. NI has look more to economies beyond Uk.

On the specifics of your numbers I’m less sure. Accurate data of trade between UK regions is in my experience impossible to get. I’ll give you an example:
A German company spends €10m on a service from a UK company. The UK company is headquartered in London but all its work is done in Belfast. Does your figures record that as an export from London to Germany, Belfast to Germany or Belfast to London? Accurately recording that stuff is really important for the type of analysis you are attempting.

That’s true. GB is often the middleman for GB exports to NI that are coming from say EU. But it would only prove my point that NI’s trade with GB underperforms when compared to the purchasing power the republic has when buying from both north and GB. In fact, Republic buys more now from UK than it did pre-Brexit (a good bit will be inflation costs). Which shows the lie in Unionists complaining about interruptions in trade with GB. Rest of Ireland continues to be a huge export market for Uk. I’d say there’s some that must be thinking that if they could save the £15bn subvention and the whole of Ireland was just a billion upon billions export market, wouldn’t that be a great thing. Anyway I need to start turning my thoughts to the Dubs.

[Snapchap]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

There is a concerted effort now, calling for the scrapping of the good friday agreement or failing that a renogiation of the mechanism by which a border poll is called or a changing of the 50+1% rule for it to pass.

Spell out the details of each strand that go to make up the “concerted effort” to which you refer?

Making a concerted effort doesn't haven't to constitute multiple strands you know.

A blind man on a galloping horse could see that there's a long running attempt to move the goalposts on 50%+1.

Seamus Mallon started it and it's been latched onto by a succession of Unionist and free stater politicians since, including none other than Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin. Ian Óg was at it earlier this week.

Where have you been living if you haven't noticed?

[imtommygunn]

Paisley tried to put it through parliament months ago.

[red hander]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

If that happened, then Stormont is dead.

[Franko]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

There is a concerted effort now, calling for the scrapping of the good friday agreement or failing that a renogiation of the mechanism by which a border poll is called or a changing of the 50+1% rule for it to pass.

Spell out the details of each strand that go to make up the “concerted effort” to which you refer?

Ah come on - they didn't exactly publish a documented plan, but you've have to be living under a rock to miss the constant efforts to undermine the GFA and the 50%+1 specifically.

[NAG1]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

If that happened, then Stormont is dead.

It will never happen, it is signed into a internationally recognised framework. Just because the DUP have now realised the implication of this does not change that simply fact.

[imtommygunn]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

If that happened, then Stormont is dead.

It appears dead anyway. I am not sure how it gets revived. It would take this kind of thing to get the DUP back in I think.

They are doing more for Irish unity than all the nationalist / republican parties put together ever did the way they are going.

[Keyser soze]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

If that happened, then Stormont is dead.

It will never happen, it is signed into a internationally recognised framework. Just because the DUP have now realised the implication of this does not change that simply fact.

I know that, and you know that, we all know that.

But in the event of a hung parliament, which I think is quite likely to happen within the next few election cycles, the DUP as kingmakers will easily wring this concession from a tory leader, international treaty or no international treaty.

[trailer]

If the DUP manoeuvre the British government into postponing/deferring/cancelling the prospect of a border poll it will be the greatest boost to Nationalism since Brexit.

Another strategic masterstroke by the DUP.

If that happened, then Stormont is dead.

It will never happen, it is signed into a internationally recognised framework. Just because the DUP have now realised the implication of this does not change that simply fact.

I know that, and you know that, we all know that.

But in the event of a hung parliament, which I think is quite likely to happen within the next few election cycles, the DUP as kingmakers will easily wring this concession from a tory leader, international treaty or no international treaty.

What about if it was hung in favour of Labour and they conceded polls in both Scotland and the North?

[Eire90]

Ian Paisley: We are nowhere near the risk of a border poll - but if one ever happened there should be a turnout quota and supermajority

[markl121]

Ian Paisley: We are nowhere near the risk of a border poll - but if one ever happened there should be a turnout quota and supermajority

Enjoyed the turnout quota manouvere. Don’t show up to vote and we win be default.

[Franko]

Ian Paisley: We are nowhere near the risk of a border poll - but if one ever happened there should be a turnout quota and supermajority

Nothing to see here smelmoth