Russia invades Ukraine Feb 2022

[Tony Baloney]

If he went onto Estonia who would challenge him, it would be another Ukraine.

Are they not in NATO?

And ... you honestly think the yanks or the Brits are going go after him if he strays into Estonia?

They would go after him for sure - they have to.

Putin knows this which is why he wont attack countries in NATO.

Sanctions are fine for them - they dont have to get their hands dirty.

While Ukraine is holding firm at the moment unfortunately I dont think this will last for much longer unless they get military help (not just being given weapons).

Putin will soon be in control of Ukraine - there will still be elements fighting against him but once he gains control what next for him?

Hard to see the end goal

Yes there has definitely been an escalation in use of missiles and cluster bombs as well as convoys of Chechen headers so it must only be a matter of "when" not "if" they are overrun. He'll want to push ahead aggressively by any means necessary rather than drag it out. If he achieves it without NATO laying a glove on him then he coule certainly look at other land grabs.

[yellowcard]

If he went onto Estonia who would challenge him, it would be another Ukraine.

Are they not in NATO?

And ... you honestly think the yanks or the Brits are going go after him if he strays into Estonia?

They would go after him for sure - they have to.

Putin knows this which is why he wont attack countries in NATO.

Sanctions are fine for them - they dont have to get their hands dirty.

While Ukraine is holding firm at the moment unfortunately I dont think this will last for much longer unless they get military help (not just being given weapons).

Putin will soon be in control of Ukraine - there will still be elements fighting against him but once he gains control what next for him?

Hard to see the end goal

But I thought Trump said last week that it was a genius move!

[seafoid]

If he went onto Estonia who would challenge him, it would be another Ukraine.

Are they not in NATO?

They are

With Belarus in lockstep with Russia the only thing linking the Baltic states to the rest of Europe is a 65km stretch of border with Poland called the Suwalki corridor.

[seafoid]

https://www.ft.com/content/e51014c3-0b97-4a3d-8a19-bc49b3ccd042

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, accused Russia of war crimes after a missile hit the centre of Kharkiv in one of the most destructive attacks on a densely populated urban area since Moscow launched its military offensive. Stung by five days of unexpectedly slow progress, Russia has shifted its approach, pouring more troops and armour into Ukraine and stepping up its use of artillery and other unguided weapons on cities including Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Kherson.

[OgraAnDun]

If he went onto Estonia who would challenge him, it would be another Ukraine.

Are they not in NATO?

And ... you honestly think the yanks or the Brits are going go after him if he strays into Estonia?

They are legally obligated to

Again - And .... - they certainly won't.

The whole concept of NATO is built around Article V, I'm not sure how they could justify ignoring it if it was invoked.

[Eire90]

can putin keep control in ukraine with the numbers he has without committing a genocide and do they expect people to just listen to a new leader

[imtommygunn]

500k people have fled the Ukraine. What's the population - 41 million plus? I don't see how there is not mass genocide going to happen here if it hasn't already 

[yellowcard]

can putin keep control in ukraine with the numbers he has without committing a genocide and do they expect people to just listen to a new leader

No chance. Irrespective of the immorality of it all, it already looks like political suicide. Doomed to failure. Most certainly not the genius that Trump hailed him as last week.

He will have spawned generations of resentment and hatred from Ukrainians over the illegitimate invasion of their own nation. How could he have miscalculated that they would roll over and have their tummies tickled or did he learn nothing from history. 

[Average Score]

If he went onto Estonia who would challenge him, it would be another Ukraine.

Are they not in NATO?

And ... you honestly think the yanks or the Brits are going go after him if he strays into Estonia?

They are legally obligated to

Again - And .... - they certainly won't.

The whole concept of NATO is built around Article V, I'm not sure how they could justify ignoring it if it was invoked.

Certain WW111 - would the American public and politicians justify this because a country 8000km away was being invaded.

[seafoid]

Article V assumes respect for the rule  of law and sovereignty which Putin has just trashed. Putin is using the threat of nuclear war to hold off the West and get his way. The international order is broken.

[yellowcard]

If he went onto Estonia who would challenge him, it would be another Ukraine.

Are they not in NATO?

And ... you honestly think the yanks or the Brits are going go after him if he strays into Estonia?

They are legally obligated to

Again - And .... - they certainly won't.

The whole concept of NATO is built around Article V, I'm not sure how they could justify ignoring it if it was invoked.

Certain WW111 - would the American public and politicians justify this because a country 8000km away was being invaded.

America is a completely divided society so there will never be unanimity on the correct approach. However if NATO failed to take military action against an invasion of one of their own member states, then their credibility would be on the floor.

The far right in America will cling to whatever they are being told by Fox News and Trump. Up until recent days they were inclined to side with Putin's genius over their own administration such is their disdain for the Democrats and what they deem as an illegitimate president. Trump and his political cronies will only be convinced to turn against Putin if it is in their own self interest to do so. That will likely happen once it becomes evident that Putin is a beaten docket or public opinion has turned against him so much that it is no longer expedient to cosy up to him. Trump will not want to be on the losing side again and will attempt to change the narrative accordingly to suit.   

[93-DY-SAM]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself. 

[lenny]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself.

It's more likely to be some of the other powerful oligarchs who've been hit with serious sanctions who group together to move against him. The problem is most of those have got where they are because they are very loyal to him. Any hint of disloyalty from them and they know how ruthless Putin is so they have to tread carefully. You can be sure that at the moment Putin is completely paranoid and more than likely trusts no one.

[Armamike]

This is playing out a little like ancient Rome. Caesar needs taken out by one of his own.  Money and power will likely trump loyalty at some point.

[yellowcard]

Putin is like a cornered rat so he has to win whatever the cost. If we thought things were ugly since last Thursday he is about to seriously up the ante with this convoy heading to Kyiv. He isn't about to suddenly admit I made a mistake, sorry about that, we'll pack up and go home. Like the gambler with a busted flush, he is all in. The question is what happens next?

He needs to be removed and the only way that will happen is from within Russia. It will take a serious mobilisation of ordinary decent Russian citizens who have disdain for him over the years even before this war to rise up. Hard to see that happening given the grip he has on them and sources of information. Unfortunately, serious change can only come from within Russia itself.

Ordinary Russians will end up paying the price economically and a mass insurrection may be likelier than many predict. You could well be right in that it may take something like this to remove his hands from the levers of power. War crimes being committed in their name and being treated as a pariah state with no allies will not sit well with ordinary folk. That is the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario does not bear thinking about.