Sinn Fein - Finished in the Republic

[scalder]

Superb analysis by O'Brion and as you say lads unusual for APRN to publish anything critical of the leadership. For me the problems facing the party are many fold. FF targeted Crowes seat apparently as they identified it 9 months ago as the only one they could possibly squeeze in that constituency. The fact the SF has to chase the same votes as Berties gang means they have to fight the best machine in the business.

Some solutions;

•   Clarity on polices – left leaning without being Marxist (sensible polices on immigration for example)
•   Good quality candidates, articulate and confident who can take on the McDowells of this world, but keep the local and grounded
•   Gain more local government seats and continue to build the party in terms of membership numbers

Its going to be tough though and the party north and south could diverge as in the North they will be pushed more and more towards the centre ground, becoming the FF of the north. If the party in the republic is more left leaning will the cause problems?
Adams has a role but I think the new northern minister need to be seen down here too, Conor Murphy, Cartriona Ruan for example. Showing a newer face to the party. Anyway that's my thoughts on it.

[Silky]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

O'Broin is an accomplished author, academic, magazine editor, member of the SF Ard Comhairie, SF Director of European Affairs, community activist, elected representative and is fluent in three or four languages. I don't know what standard you are using Silky, but I doubt very much O'Broin has ever failed in anything he has set himself.

He failed to get elected in Dún Laoghaire!  

[Ryano]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

O'Broin is an accomplished author, academic, magazine editor, member of the SF Ard Comhairie, SF Director of European Affairs, community activist, elected representative and is fluent in three or four languages. I don't know what standard you are using Silky, but I doubt very much O'Broin has ever failed in anything he has set himself.

He failed to get elected in Dún Laoghaire! 

Just as well he is so well educated. At least he won't have to sign on

[SuperMac]

Lack of Oranges leaves Sinn Féin sucking on a lemon
Newton Emerson

Newton's Optic: Sinn Féin has blamed "a serious shortage of Protestants in the 26 counties" for its poor showing in last week's election.

"Sinn Féin draws its core support from people who can't be relied on to vote," explained Dr Pat Answer, Professor of Advanced Shinnerology at Dublin Sunday Business College.

"They might be too drunk or hung-over on election day, or have a court appearance or a meeting with their parole officer.

"They might have injured themselves by climbing through a kitchen window while carrying a wide-screen television. Or they might simply have lost track of the date because they never go to work.

"Whatever the reason, Sinn Féin voters need to be provoked to the polls and there simply aren't enough Protestants in the Republic to cause the necessary level of antagonism."

The situation is very different in Northern Ireland, where the daily sight of Protestants cutting their perfect hedges, driving their sensible cars and going to church in elaborate hats wedged tightly onto their pointy little heads ensures that Sinn Féin voters are always angry enough to cast a ballot.

Attempts to widen the party's southern appeal beyond its traditional sectarian base may only have made matters worse.

"According to our research, many Sinn Féin voters thought that Mary Lou McDonald was a Protestant," Dr Answer said. "She certainly has that smug look about her. Or at least she certainly did."

Dublin Sunday Business College has defended the wider sociological methodology behind its research, which overestimated Sinn Féin's final tally by a statistically acceptable 300 per cent.

"We were right about the number of people dumb enough to vote for Sinn Féin," Dr Answer said.

"We just forgot that they were lazy as well."

For party activists the question now is where they go from here.

"Well, we can't go back up North," Sinn Féin community outreach negotiator Anne Phoblacht said. "It's full of Protestants."

Developing a separate southern strategy could also prove problematic.

"We warned people on the doorsteps to vote for us or the Protestants would get in," Ms Phoblacht said. "But everyone just laughed because they thought we meant Trevor Sargent."

The Irish Times understands that senior party figures have already discussed the possibility of bringing more Protestants into the Republic. Martin Ferris has agreed to charter a boat and Aengus Ó Snodaigh has offered the use of a van.

"We're mainly interested in people from Nigeria," Ms Phoblacht said. "You can have any Protestants you like as long as they're black."

Experts agree that this is Sinn Féin's only hope for an electoral breakthrough.

"There's no point being sectarian when there aren't any Protestants and no point pretending to be non-sectarian when there aren't any Protestants," Dr Answer explained.

"There's also no point talking about equality when you've no Protestants to be equal to and no point talking about rights when you can't claim that Protestants are infringing your rights.

"So really it's all the Protestants' fault. No wonder people hate those hedge-cutting freaks."

But it's not all bad news for Sinn Féin. The party polled quite well in Border counties due to Northern Ireland's provocative proximity.

"If there had still been some Protestant farmers in the area we might even have won a few seats," Ms Phoblacht said.

"What a pity we killed them."

© 2007 The Irish Times

Newton Emerson - aka William Frazer by any chance ? Must be a meember of FAIR http://www.victims.org.uk/main.html   

The usual baloney regarding Republican 'ethnic cleansing' dressed up as humour with a swipe against SF. ( BTW, I'm not an SFer, my belief is that since 1994 they are on the road to eventual almalgamation with FF, it will start as coalition partners in 2 or 3 elections time, whatever. Eventually they will be swallowed up offically into FF. Say what they will, that's political co option is their real ' peace strategy'.)

[Donagh]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

O'Broin is an accomplished author, academic, magazine editor, member of the SF Ard Comhairie, SF Director of European Affairs, community activist, elected representative and is fluent in three or four languages. I don't know what standard you are using Silky, but I doubt very much O'Broin has ever failed in anything he has set himself.

He failed to get elected in Dún Laoghaire! 

It was never his goal to get elected in Dún Laoghaire.

[Swinging Fiona]

Newton Emerson - aka William Frazer by any chance ? Must be a meember of FAIR http://www.victims.org.uk/main.html   

If you read the Irish News every Saturday you will know who Newton Emerson is.

[Evil Genius]

Some solutions;

•   Clarity on polices – left leaning without being Marxist (sensible polices on immigration for example)
•   Good quality candidates, articulate and confident who can take on the McDowells of this world, but keep the local and grounded
•   Gain more local government seats and continue to build the party in terms of membership numbers

Its going to be tough though and the party north and south could diverge as in the North they will be pushed more and more towards the centre ground, becoming the FF of the north. If the party in the republic is more left leaning will the cause problems?

Your analysis seems pretty sensible to me, but I can't imagine it's what SF want to hear, since it merely reinforces their awareness of how deep in the shit they really are.

As regards your solutions, moving to the left - even if stopping short of Marxism - inevitably restricts them in the ROI to a niche constituency. Of course, under a system of PR, niche, or single-issue parties can sometimes acquire a disproportionate influence. However, with the ROI already overloaded with almost as many parties as voters(!), the last thing any of them wants is another "bird in the nest" - and a cuckoo, at that! Which explains why the mainstream parties in the ROI are all happy to co-operate in ignoring SF.
And in any case, being the party of the (reduced) left in a modern-day partitioned South is somewhat of a climb-down from SF's historic claim to be the party of (an all-Ireland) Republic!

As for good quality candidates, the image and background of many of those who currently represent the party is not the most "conducive", shall we say, to your average would-be political activist in the South. And for any who may be ambitious for office etc, the mainstream parties offer much more realistic prospect of advancement.

And regarding your last suggestion, that's all well and good, but it's going to take years; I don't see that many of the present leadership either have those years, nor see why they should wait that long, in order to secure the "reward" which they consider rightfully theirs after decades of struggle and sacrifice. (The pleasures of Armani suits and designer glasses eventually lose their allure, I imagine)

And as for the North-South divergence, the way things are, that is not an unrealistic proposition, seeing as how the Leadership is in the North, where potential for growth is limited, but the potential for growth is in the South - where the Leadership most definitely isn't! Will Adams and Co be prepared to cede authority to a new generation in the South which not only has different priorities to those in the North, but "never served"?

For SF to continue to follow its original aspirations of 1905 etc, this can only be on an All-Ireland basis. But until/unless they can demonstrate the capacity to end partition, they're going nowhere. In fact, by collaborating with the hated Brits in a partitionist Government in Stormont, freely recognised by every mainstream party in the Republic, it could be argued that they're moving away from their historic destiny, not towards it!

Was this how Partition was meant to end? Not with a Bang (TNT), but with Wee Martin cosying up to Big Ian (Tea and Toast)... 

[Evil Genius]

Newton Emerson - aka William Frazer by any chance ? Must be a meember of FAIR http://www.victims.org.uk/main.html   

The usual baloney regarding Republican 'ethnic cleansing' dressed up as humour with a swipe against SF. ( BTW, I'm not an SFer, my belief is that since 1994 they are on the road to eventual almalgamation with FF, it will start as coalition partners in 2 or 3 elections time, whatever. Eventually they will be swallowed up offically into FF. Say what they will, that's political co option is their real ' peace strategy'.)

Not familiar with the concept of satire, then? Perhaps you should ask a Grown-Up...

[Sky Blue]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

O'Broin is an accomplished author, academic, magazine editor, member of the SF Ard Comhairie, SF Director of European Affairs, community activist, elected representative and is fluent in three or four languages. I don't know what standard you are using Silky, but I doubt very much O'Broin has ever failed in anything he has set himself.

He failed to get elected in Dún Laoghaire! 

It was never his goal to get elected in Dún Laoghaire.

Why did he stand if his goal wasn't to be elected? You're hard work Donagh.

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections2007/results/constit-22.html

[deiseach]

Why did he stand if his goal wasn't to be elected? You're hard work Donagh.

Plenty of people run who have no chance of being elected. They may want to make a single-issue point or put down a marker for the future. The problem for SF in DL is that unless the goal was to finish dead last - behind the PD's, for chrissake! - they didn't achieve anything at all.

[magickingdom]

And as for the South, how ironic that Bertie should judge that his electoral prospects would be much more greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand by the Boyne waters, than e.g. by shaking Adams's hand in somewhere like Bodenstown!

Bertie electoral prospects greatly enhanced by being photographed shaking Paisley's hand........Will you ever stop posting on the forum pal. Your living in dreamland, you haven't a clue.

you might be the one in dreamland there supermac. like it or not the north was a good news story for bertie and bertie like all good politicians flogged it for all it was worth.

[Donagh]

Eoin O'Broin was a Sinn Fein councilor for North Belfast.

Another failed para-shooter!!

O'Broin is an accomplished author, academic, magazine editor, member of the SF Ard Comhairie, SF Director of European Affairs, community activist, elected representative and is fluent in three or four languages. I don't know what standard you are using Silky, but I doubt very much O'Broin has ever failed in anything he has set himself.

He failed to get elected in Dún Laoghaire! 

It was never his goal to get elected in Dún Laoghaire.

Why did he stand if his goal wasn't to be elected? You're hard work Donagh.

http://www.rte.ie/news/elections2007/results/constit-22.html

To offer the electorate the option.

[GweylTah]

Sinn Fein are in terminal decline as a political force in the Republic of Ireland.

There can be no other cogent analysis of their situation when one considers -

(1) They've put the guns away and gone into government with Paisley in the North

(2) They spent a forturne promoting bright young things such as Mary Lou McDonald and Pearse Doherty only to see them trounced at the polls.

(3) Gerry Adams revealed himself as a politician of very little substance during the General Election campaign (McDowell made a monkey out of him during the smaller party's Leader's debate).

If Sinn Fein couldn't make hay down here with all they had going for them in the North then they can forget it.

They didn't, as Adams remarked, get 'squeezed' during the election.  Their vote simply didn't show up and their much vaunted 'machine' was proved to exactly what it is - a myth (south of the border, anyway).

It's one thing to take on the SDLP, quite another to take on FF/FG.

And despite the high turnout in the election, it should be remembered that -

(a) Much of their vote here relies on an electorate just a likely to stay in bed than actually go to the polling station.

(b) They failed to recognise that they were dealing with a far more sophisticated electorate in the south than in the north, where economics/quality of life, and not an emotional connection to history or years of discrimination is the key factor in determining one's first preference vote.

Good  call.

SF has played all its cards and when the Taoiseach uses his highest profile election broadcast and the starring roles / rining endorsements in it are from a British Prime Minister and a Protestant-Unionist First Minister in Northern Ireland, it's a fair call to say SF hasn't a clue what makes the Republic tick, and the Northern dominated Adams cult has had its chips as far as the South is concerned.

[deiseach]

To offer the electorate the option.

A quick, not exhaustive, scan of the constituencies showed only three where SF didn't run a candidate - Cork North-West, Limerick West and Kildare South - so your answer strikes me as reasonable.

[Donagh]

To offer the electorate the option.

A quick, not exhaustive, scan of the constituencies showed only three where SF didn't run a candidate - Cork North-West, Limerick West and Kildare South - so your answer strikes me as reasonable.

They had one in Kildare South but he/she went AWOL.