26 County General Election 2020

Started by Snapchap, January 09, 2020, 06:52:51 PM

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What will be makeup of the next government?

FF/SD/Lab/Green
FG/SD/Lab/Green
FG/FF
FF/Green
FG/Independents
FG/Independents
FG/Green
FF/SF
FF/Green/Independents
FF Minority
FG Minority
FG/SF
FF/Lab/Green
FF/Lab
FF/Lab/Green/Independents

Hound

Quote from: Rossfan on February 10, 2020, 07:51:50 PM
McGrath of FF on the News saying they'll let Marylou get on with talking to left wingers to try and set up a left wing Government.
Yep, even if they end up with the most seats, FF have decided to let SF make the first attempt at forming a government with everyone bar FF FG

Eamonnca1

Quoth The Economist:

QuoteSinn Fein flying
The IRA's former political wing comes top in a general election
It may now be headed for government

IRELAND'S PRIME MINISTER, Leo Varadkar, looks all but certain to lose his job. The left-wing Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), rode a wave of anti-austerity sentiment to win the most votes in a general election on February 8th.

Sinn Fein's victory ends a century of electoral dominance for Fianna Fail and Mr Varadkar's Fine Gael, two centre-right rivals that have enjoyed a duopoly since the Irish state was founded in 1922. Born out of a civil war between rival factions in the original IRA—Fine Gael's founders reluctantly accepted the temporary partition of Ireland as the price of peace with Britain after the war of independence, while Fianna Fail's founders insisted on a united Ireland—the two parties have these days few if any ideological differences. Their electoral dominance reflected a deeply conservative electorate wary of change. In 1982 they had a combined 84% of the vote. On February 8th, they managed only 43%.

The present incarnation of Sinn Fein stems from a more recent and more bloody civil conflict, the Northern Ireland Troubles, in which it emerged as the political wing of the Provisional IRA. It too has sought to throw off its violent history, and has now succeeded in attracting voters wearied by over a decade of austerity, imposed after Ireland's economic crisis, by three successive governments led by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

In a surge which even caught Sinn Fein by surprise, the party won 24.5% of first-preferences under Ireland's single-transferable vote system of proportional representation. That was an impressive increase on its score of 13.8% at the previous election, in 2016. Fianna Fail won 22.2%, while Fine Gael trailed in third with 20.9%. Therefore even if Fine Gael enters a coalition with one of the other two parties, its leader will have no claim on the premiership.

Yet despite Sinn Fein's success, its leader, Mary Lou McDonald, also lacks a clear path to the prime minister's office. Stung by dismal local election results last June, in which its share of the vote slumped to only 9.5% and it lost half its council seats, Sinn Fein ran only 42 candidates for the 160 seats in the Dublin parliament. It is therefore unlikely to end up with the highest seat count, despite winning most first preferences. (With 26 seats still to fill, Sinn Fein had 37 seats to Fine Gael's 29 and Fianna Fail's 27.)

Under Ireland's painstaking system of proportional representation vote-counting is likely to continue in some constituencies for several days. But behind the scenes, the political horse-trading has already begun. Most observers expect a coalition of Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein will form the basis of the next government. A "grand coalition" of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael is also possible, although this would surely anger voters who turned to Sinn Fein to end the old duopoly.

Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael vowed in the course of the campaign that they would not go into coalition with Sinn Fein, because of its past support for violence in Northern Ireland and what they see as spendthrift promises. But Fianna Fail's leader, Micheal Martin, declined to rule out such an alliance as the scale of the surge emerged over the weekend. "I'm a democrat," he told journalists. "I listen to the people, I respect the decision of the people."

Ms McDonald said at the weekend that her preference would be to form a Sinn Fein-led government in coalition with smaller leftist parties, the Green Party and independents. However, any such alliance would struggle to form a working majority.

The defeated Mr Varadkar had built his re-election campaign on a resurgent economy (GDP grew by around 5% last year) and his tough handling of the Northern Ireland border issue in talks with the European Union and Brexiting Britain. However, 63% of voters surveyed on election day said that they were not experiencing the economic recovery in their own lives. Almost a third said that the most important issue had been health care, while 26% chose housing. The same exit poll showed that 65% wanted to see more money spent on social services.

Sinn Fein appears to have benefited from this surge in social-democratic sentiment, moving into the political space formerly occupied by the Labour Party, which lost much of its support after it entered an austerity coalition with Fine Gael between 2011 and 2016.

Housing and health have become particularly difficult issues for Fine Gael, which has been in power for nine years (Mr Varadkar succeeded Enda Kenny as party leader and prime minister in June 2017). Its housing policies—shared with Fianna Fail, which preceded it in office—are widely blamed for a shortage of homes. Many young people are unable to buy, and private rents are among the highest in the world. Meanwhile, the mixed public-private health system is increasingly perceived to be in crisis. Hundreds of patients have waited on trolleys for admission to emergency rooms. Waiting lists for consultant appointments stretch out for years. Staff morale has plunged.

Whatever the composition of the next government, the election result is a triumph for Ms McDonald, an articulate Dubliner who, like all her front-bench spokespeople, had no involvement in the Troubles and is widely regarded as able on policy matters. Conversely, even if Mr Varadkar tries to cling to the leadership of Fine Gael, as he has vowed to do, he will be seen as weakened by an error-ridden, ill-conceived snap election campaign.

manfromdelmonte

Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.


Most in favour of tax cuts

Most in favour of increases in public spending

Venezuela politics

Tony Baloney

Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 10, 2020, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.


Most in favour of tax cuts

Most in favour of increases in public spending

Venezuela politics
They must be planting money trees.

Itchy

Oh dear, some Democrats not taking democracy so well. Almost DUP like.

Angelo

Quote from: Tony Baloney on February 10, 2020, 08:53:08 PM
Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 10, 2020, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.


Most in favour of tax cuts

Most in favour of increases in public spending

Venezuela politics
They must be planting money trees.

FF money trees?

GAA FUNDING CHEATS CHEAT US ALL

Main Street

The paye tax
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 07:11:30 PM
Quote from: Rossfan on February 10, 2020, 06:50:14 PM
Mr Cullinane TD for Waterford allegedly singing "Up the Ra" in some Pub in Waterford.
Why do they continue to use the Tricolour as a weapon and as if the rest of us were Unionists?

This shows a profound lack of judgement, apart from anything else.
Singing James Connolly or even Kevin Barry would provide a good night and not bring attention to yourself.
Do you swallow any old guff Armaghniac and from Rossfan? just how low are your standards? ;D
Cullinane did not burst into song.

Eamonnca1

Quote from: manfromdelmonte on February 10, 2020, 08:37:16 PM
Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.


Most in favour of tax cuts

Most in favour of increases in public spending

Venezuela politics

Dunno how anybody can come to that conclusion. The question was an either-or choice between tax cuts and increased spending in the event of a government having a surplus.

The poll result shows a slight majority in favour of the latter among the top three parties, and a significant majority preferring more spending among the Greens and Labour, as you'd expect from left-leaning parties. This fits a pattern in European countries. Venezuela is something of a unique case that has nothing to do with this.

Rudi

#923
Quote from: Rudi on February 10, 2020, 02:27:46 PM
Kate O Connell, Regina Doherty, Shane Ross & Ruth Coppinger good riddance. The establishment has got a serious kicking, no harm in the long run. It's a small bit worrying that SF councillors that struggled to make seats in the locals, romped home in the General. Looks like a major protest vote, interesting to see how they perform in real life government.

Zaponne gone too, hopefully back to the US.

Possible re election in 6 to 10 weeks, think it will be difficult to form a stable government.

Eamonnca1

Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

Rossfan

With 8 seats left to fill looking like FF to finish on 38 and FG 35 or 36.
SF already 37 .
Various left parties/groups likely 18.
Davy's given us a dream to cling to
We're going to bring home the SAM

Farrandeelin

Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 10, 2020, 09:26:49 PM
Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

COULD, MM might have to eat his words if he doesn't want to be the only FF leader not to be Taoiseach if FF get most seats. Then again there's a large body of FF that don't want the Shinners. Some do however. I can't see Mary-Lou keeping Tweedlewhatever in government if they want radical change.

Rudi probably is correct in that there will be another election sooner than later.
Inaugural Football Championship Prediction Winner.

macdanger2

Quote from: Farrandeelin on February 10, 2020, 09:40:09 PM
Quote from: Eamonnca1 on February 10, 2020, 09:26:49 PM
Could there be an SF/FF/Green coalition on the cards? I don't see how the numbers can add up for a leftish coalition that excludes FF or FG.

COULD, MM might have to eat his words if he doesn't want to be the only FF leader not to be Taoiseach if FF get most seats. Then again there's a large body of FF that don't want the Shinners. Some do however. I can't see Mary-Lou keeping Tweedlewhatever in government if they want radical change.

Rudi probably is correct in that there will be another election sooner than later
.

FF though won't want that so they've a tough choice coming up

macdanger2

Quote from: armaghniac on February 10, 2020, 07:40:39 PM
SF voters are the most in favour of tax cuts, more than FG or FF. that fits in nicely with the plan to tax foreigners for everything.



Oddly enough, SF and FG are most closely aligned (on that one question)

seafoid

Quote from: Rossfan on February 10, 2020, 09:35:19 PM
With 8 seats left to fill looking like FF to finish on 38 and FG 35 or 36.
SF already 37 .
Various left parties/groups likely 18.
It's not far off a 4 way split
.There should be another vote in 6 months with the Shinners providing enough candidates
"f**k it, just score"- Donaghy   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbxG2WwVRjU