A United Ireland. Opening up the discussion.

[clonadmad]

Would nationalists accept a 50%+1 against?

Yes, of course. With the demographics the 1 would have already died when the count took place, so just have another referedum after 7 years with plenty of clarification in the meantime.

50+1 would be too unstable . Brexit was won 52:48 when most voters had no idea what Brexit meant and it has been a clusterfuck that sucks political energy and goes nowhere.

50% + 1 in a democratic decision is a majority

What are you suggesting is done instead?

You'd hope that lessons would have been leaned from Brexit and that a UI referendum would be 5 years in the planning

As for this notion that Brexit voters didn't know what they were voting for ,that's on them,there were no shortage of information explaining to them what was in the offing if they voted to leave.

One of the things  that  was talked about pre-Brexit was the  possibility of Irish Sea border checks , and big Jeffrey  actually said  sure that wouldn't be a problem if they  had  those.  So ,  a lot of people look to their politicians for  guidance (madness, I know) on such  things before  voting

Do you honestly  think  all cards will be laid out  on the table pre-border poll?  Will all promises  and arrangements  be honoured  after the referendum? Of  course they won't.

If you take guidance from the likes of Jeffrey Paisley Bojo and Rees Mogg then the jokes on you

Even at the most basic level making it more difficult to trade with your nearest and biggest partners was never going to be biggest and brightest of ideas

With respect to a UI,there would have to be an agreement similar to the GFA which would have to agreed and signed by the British and Irish governments plus in all probability the US and the EU

Similar to the GFA if it is in the agreement,it would have to adhered to

[AustinPowers]

Would nationalists accept a 50%+1 against?

Yes, of course. With the demographics the 1 would have already died when the count took place, so just have another referedum after 7 years with plenty of clarification in the meantime.

50+1 would be too unstable . Brexit was won 52:48 when most voters had no idea what Brexit meant and it has been a clusterfuck that sucks political energy and goes nowhere.

50% + 1 in a democratic decision is a majority

What are you suggesting is done instead?

You'd hope that lessons would have been leaned from Brexit and that a UI referendum would be 5 years in the planning

As for this notion that Brexit voters didn't know what they were voting for ,that's on them,there were no shortage of information explaining to them what was in the offing if they voted to leave.

One of the things  that  was talked about pre-Brexit was the  possibility of Irish Sea border checks , and big Jeffrey  actually said  sure that wouldn't be a problem if they  had  those.  So ,  a lot of people look to their politicians for  guidance (madness, I know) on such  things before  voting

Do you honestly  think  all cards will be laid out  on the table pre-border poll?  Will all promises  and arrangements  be honoured  after the referendum? Of  course they won't.

If you take guidance from the likes of Jeffrey Paisley Bojo and Rees Mogg then the jokes on you

Even at the most basic level making it more difficult to trade with your nearest and biggest partners was never going to be biggest and brightest of ideas

With respect to a UI,there would have to be an agreement similar to the GFA which would have to agreed and signed by the British and Irish governments plus in all probability the US and the EU

Similar to the GFA if it is in the agreement,it would have to adhered to

Well , yes, it's easy to  say now why   would  people vote or listen to  Boris Mogg etc  and  the other  Tories , given that,  they are the most corrupt shower of gangsters  that  were ever in power, and  that Brexit  doesn't seem to be going well. Or  Jeffrey, given that  unionism is probably in its   worst position since  partition. 

But many people do  believe the words or politicians all  the time. Be that in local council elections,  or national elections.  Nobody would vote if  that  wasnt the case

[Applesisapples]

A referendum is not winnable at the moment and inspire of Unionism it will not be winnable until the Irish Government becomes proactive, which under FF/FG. they won't and SF will not form a Government in the ROI anytime soon as the rest will coalesce to stop it.

[armaghniac]

A referendum is not winnable at the moment and inspire of Unionism it will not be winnable until the Irish Government becomes proactive, which under FF/FG. they won't and SF will not form a Government in the ROI anytime soon as the rest will coalesce to stop it.

The Irish government will not publicly step in until things are pretty clear, but I expect there is work in the background. The next FF leader after Martin might well take a much more proactive view, to help ward off SF and perhaps to distinguish FF from FG. What is needed is a clear nationalist plurality in the next NI election.

[weareros]

Irish gov providing £38m to Magee that will fund 1500 new university places. In addition to the nursing funding and before that Erasmus funding, these surely are all steps on the path to a United Ireland. Contrasts with Unionists blocking development of Derry campus in 1960s.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-65953981

[clonadmad]

Definitely worth a listen

David McWilliams Podcast

The Unionist Strategy against a United Ireland ....Poverty

https://open.spotify.com/episode/21gxBKirO4AEHr0wbG1Pkd?si=__CA_cPmT36YKdiBfX5lOw

[Eamonnca1]

McWilliams is married to a northern Protestant woman and knows the mentality of them all right. I'm sure his in-laws have seen to that. Always an insightful bit of commentary.

[trailer]

McWilliams is married to a northern Protestant woman and knows the mentality of them all right. I'm sure his in-laws have seen to that. Always an insightful bit of commentary.

McWilliams is an entertainer first and an economist second. Much like Brolly the Wally, they're in showbusiness. If you want to get paid for talks and panel gigs you gotta say stuff to get you in the limelight.

[Main Street]

Definitely worth a listen

David McWilliams Podcast

The Unionist Strategy against a United Ireland ....Poverty

https://open.spotify.com/episode/21gxBKirO4AEHr0wbG1Pkd?si=__CA_cPmT36YKdiBfX5lOw

Definitely worth a listen, though skip the preamble.  Instead of driving a wedge betweeen north and south Brexit has built bigger bridges. Trade both ways has increase by 50%  in just one year, from 2020 to 2021.

At these current growth rates, after a couple of years the economic relationship with the south will easily surpass NI's  economic trade with Britain.

[clonadmad]

McWilliams is married to a northern Protestant woman and knows the mentality of them all right. I'm sure his in-laws have seen to that. Always an insightful bit of commentary.

McWilliams is an entertainer first and an economist second. Much like Brolly the Wally, they're in showbusiness. If you want to get paid for talks and panel gigs you gotta say stuff to get you in the limelight.

The point of Northern Ireland is not prosperity. Right now, among unionist politicians, the central strategy seems to centre on the immiseration of the people in order to inflate the likely future cost of any united Ireland, so as to scare off lukewarm nationalists of "middle Ireland". How else can you interpret the oft-heard expression "The South can't afford us" other than "We" are going to remain impoverished as a negotiating strategy? It doesn't matter what sort of poverty we endure as long as it's red, white and blue poverty. It's worthy of Flann O'Brien.

However, this tactic is not working because the story of the past 25 years since the signing of the Belfast Agreement has been the quiet, modest but obvious success of the integration of the island economy. Commerce always finds a way. Thirty thousand people cross the Border every day to go to work. Since Brexit, and through the Covid years, cross-Border trading has increased. In 2021, Ireland exported €3.7 billion to Northern Ireland and imported €4 billion, a significant increase from 2020, when exports stood at about €2.5 billion. Imports from Northern Ireland to the Republic also increased, Central Statistics Office (CSO) data shows.
Overall, exports to Northern Ireland as a proportion of all Irish exports to the UK increased from 16 per cent to 23 per cent in the past two years. Similarly, the share of UK imports coming from Northern Ireland has shot up. Politics might be trying to create borders, but trade is doing its own thing.
The orientation of trade in Northern Ireland has been transformed by Brexit. The Republic is Northern Ireland's single largest export market, accounting for 40 per cent of total exports outside exports to Britain. Before Brexit, Northern Ireland exports to Britain were 3.7 times greater than exports to the Republic; now that figure is only 2.5 times greater. Trade between both parts of the island is flourishing. The value of exports from Northern Ireland to the Republic increased by 23 per cent between 2020 and 2021, according to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA); a much larger increase than the change in total exports.
Brexit is not a wedge between both parts of the island. Rather, it has proved to be a bridge – precisely what the protocol is designed to do. Northern Ireland has the best of both worlds, one foot in the EU and one in the UK.

But there is a long way to go.
The Troubles are estimated to have reduced Northern Ireland's GDP by up to 10 per cent. However, in the quarter century since the Belfast Agreement, a real divergence emerged between the North and South. Economic indicators make it abundantly clear that the peace dividend went to the South.
From 1998 to 2021, the Northern Ireland economy expanded by about 38 per cent in real terms, considerably less than the Republic. Even taking the GNI (gross national income) measure, which strips out the distorting effects of multinationals on the economy, the Irish economy has grown by about 83 per cent in real terms, more than double the rate of the North.

Central to this economic underperformance of the North relative to the Republic is its poor productivity performance. Productivity is the key to driving improvements in living standards, and Northern Ireland has the worst productivity (measured in terms of output per hours worked) of any UK region, about 17 per cent below the UK average as a whole. (The UK itself is among the worst performing economies in the OECD.) In contrast, productivity per worker is about 40 per cent higher in the Republic relative to the North. Wages can't rise when productivity is so low, which explains why wages are so much lower in the North, running on average about 64 per cent of those in Ireland.

[Milltown Row2]

Think of it in 'their' shoes, its not difficult, they are British and want to stay British, and you can throw every benefit at it.

How many southern nationalists want to become British if the benefits were better? None!

[general_lee]

Think of it in 'their' shoes, its not difficult, they are British and want to stay British, and you can throw every benefit at it.

Who do you mean by 'their'?
Unionism is a broad family - Loyalists, traditional Unionists, pragmatic Unionists, Catholic Unionists, cultural Unionists, agnostic/de facto Unionists (eg Alliance).

While every one of those need to be welcomed into any new Irish state, it's only those that form part of the middle ground that need persuading.

[dec]

Think of it in 'their' shoes, its not difficult, they are British and want to stay British, and you can throw every benefit at it.

How many southern nationalists want to become British if the benefits were better? None!

Exactly. Even in the 50s and 60s when the southern economy was so bad that there was massive emigration, there was never any push to rejoin the UK.

[Rossfan]

Unionists won't vote for an All Ireland outcome.
If they did they wouldn't be "Unionists".
Nationalists and middle grounders need to be working out what a UI will looked like.

[armaghniac]

Think of it in 'their' shoes, its not difficult, they are British and want to stay British, and you can throw every benefit at it.

Who do you mean by 'their'?
Unionism is a broad family - Loyalists, traditional Unionists, pragmatic Unionists, Catholic Unionists, cultural Unionists, agnostic/de facto Unionists (eg Alliance).

While every one of those need to be welcomed into any new Irish state, it's only those that form part of the middle ground that need persuading.

And a fair number of people who just live in NI and who do not really relate to the union at all except that it is there.